Monthly Archives: August 2012

NL winner-take-all games

Following up from yesterday’s <a href=”http://www.highheatstats.com/2012/08/al-winner-take-all-games-and-the-new-wild-card-format/”>post</a> on AL winner-take-all games, here is the NL summary.

As mentioned in the earlier post, this is a remembrance of the very rare regular season winner-take-all game, before we see these games every year in the wild card playoff game (technically a post-season game, but likely to feel like a one-game playoff to qualify for the real post-season).

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As a reminder, for a winner-take-all game, I’m talking about regular season playoff games or final day of the season games where both teams can make the playoffs with a win, or miss the playoffs with a loss.

<span style=”text-decoration: underline;”><strong>National League</strong></span>

<strong>1.</strong> As in the AL, there was a close 3-way NL race in 1908 involving the Cubs, Pirates and Giants. After the scheduled games concluded, the Cubs won a make-up game with the Pirates to move a half-game ahead of the Bucs, whose season was now complete. Then, the Giants won three (apparently) make-up games with the Braves to tie the Cubs (and eliminate the Pirates), forcing completion of a final make-up game between New York and Chicago. The Cubs won 4-2 to complete their comeback, erasing the Giants’ 4.5 game lead on Sep 18 with a 14-2 finish while the Giants could manage only an 11-10 mark over the same period. Of course, the reason the Giants had to play that make-up game was because of a tie game between the clubs back on Sep 23rd. That game was called a draw on account of darkness, mainly because of a very long delay occasioned by tremendous confusion attending a certain play in the 9th inning of that contest. It was, indeed, the <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/merklfr01.shtml”>Fred Merkle</a> <a href=”http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merkle’s_Boner”>game</a>.

<strong>2.</strong> It was 1951 before the next winner-take-all <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NY1/NY1195110030.shtml”>game</a> occurred. Brooklyn, up 3 games on Sep 23rd, saw that lead evaporate with a 3-4 finish while the Giants ran off 7 straight wins to finish in a tie.  After splitting the first two games of a 3-game playoff, Brooklyn took a 4-1 lead into the 9th inning of game 3. But, starter <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/newcodo01.shtml”>Don Newcombe</a>, valiantly pitching in his 32nd inning of work in the space of only 8 days, finally ran out of gas, allowing a run-scoring double before leaving the game with one out and the tying runs in scoring position. Two pitches later, <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/brancra01.shtml”>Ralph Branca</a> gave up perhaps the most famous home run ever, <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/thomsbo01.shtml”>Bobby Thomson</a>’s shot down the very short left-field line at the Polo Grounds.

<strong>3.</strong> The Dodgers and Giants again provided the drama in 1962, but this time on the left coast. As in 1951, the Dodgers looked to be home and dry with a 4 game lead on Sep 23rd and only 7 games remaining, 6 of them in their shiny new home at Chavez Ravine. But, a 1-6 collapse teamed with a 5-2 Giants’ finish spelled another 3-game playoff. In <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SFN/SFN196210010.shtml”>game 1</a>, the Giants shocked the visitors with an 8-0 whitewash of Dodger ace <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/koufasa01.shtml”>Sandy Koufax</a>, who was replaced after only 7 batters. <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/koufasa01.shtml”>Game 2</a> was an epic struggle lasting 4 hours 18 minutes, setting a record for a 9-inning game that would stand for over 30 years. The Giants used 8 pitchers, tying the then record for a nine-inning game (excepting a stunt <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SLA/SLA194910021.shtml”>game</a> by Bill Veeck’s Browns, when a different pitcher was used each inning), before the Dodgers prevailed 8-7 on a walk-off <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fairlro01.shtml”>Ron Fairly</a> sac fly to score <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/willsma01.shtml”>Maury Wills</a>, then completing his record-setting 104 stolen base campaign. In the <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/LAN/LAN196210030.shtml”>finale</a>, as they had done 11 years before, the Dodgers took a multi-run lead into the 9th inning and again failed to hold it as the Giants parlayed 2 singles, 4 walks and an error into 4 runs and the lead. The Dodgers went meekly in order in the home 9th against game 1 CG winner <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/piercbi02.shtml”>Billy Pierce</a>, appearing in relief.

<strong>4.</strong> In 1980, both NL divisions went down to the final weekend and both with the protagonists playing each other. In the East, Philadelphia clinched on the 2nd last day against Montreal. In the West, the Astros took a 3-game lead into their final series against the Dodgers in LA, only to be swept and finish tied with the boys in blue. The Dodgers won the coin toss so the teams stayed put for a one-game <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/LAN/LAN198010060.shtml”>playoff</a> at Chavez. Having gone with their best pitchers to force the playoff, the Dodgers had no better option than journeyman <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/goltzda01.shtml”>Dave Goltz</a>, who proved no match for Astros ace <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/niekrjo01.shtml”>Joe Niekro</a>, logging his 20th win in an easy 7-1 CG triumph.

<strong>5.</strong> In 1996, the NL West race went down to the final weekend with the Padres visiting the Dodgers and needing a sweep to overcome a 2 game deficit. After San Diego won the first two to draw even with LA, the <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/LAN/LAN199609290.shtml”>finale</a> saw the two teams locked in a scoreless draw through 10 innings. In the 11th, singles by <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/finlest01.shtml”>Steve Finley</a> and <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/caminke01.shtml”>Ken Caminiti</a> put Padres on the corners with nobody out. Former Dodger <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gwynnch01.shtml”>Chris Gwynn</a> (playing alongside brother <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gwynnto01.shtml”>Tony</a> in their only season together) came up next to pinch-hit against <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/parkch01.shtml”>Chan Ho Park</a> and delivered a bases-clearing double to the right field gap, the last (and, very likely, the biggest) regular season hit of his career. <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hoffmtr01.shtml”>Trevor Hoffman</a> got the Dodgers in order in the home 11th to complete the series sweep.

<strong>6.</strong> In 1998, the Cubs and Giants finished tied for the NL wild card berth, forcing a one-game playoff to make the post-season. The Mets were also in the hunt, finishing just a game behind. Unusually, none of these teams were in the hunt for their respective division titles, so it was strictly a race for that one wild card spot. After play on Sep 20th, it looked to be a two team race between the Mets (88-69) and Cubs (87-70) with the Giants (83-72) seemingly out of it. But, 6 straight wins by San Francisco while the Mets went 0-4 and the Cubs 2-2 left the Cubs and Giants tied and the Mets a game back going into the last day. The Braves’ <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/maddugr01.shtml”>Greg Maddux</a> then dispatched the Mets in a 7-2 <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ATL/ATL199809270.shtml”>romp</a>, while the Cubs and Giants narrowly lost walk-off games to the <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/HOU/HOU199809270.shtml”>Astros</a> and <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/COL/COL199809270.shtml”>Rockies</a>, respectively. In the <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHN/CHN199809280.shtml”>playoff</a>, the Cubs took a 5 run lead into the 9th inning and then held on as the Giants made it interesting. <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/beckro01.shtml”>Rod Beck</a> (playing for the Cubs, not the Giants) came on to claim the save, retiring <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cartejo01.shtml”>Joe Carter</a> in his final major league AB.

Like Boston in the AL, the winner-take-all game has been the true nemesis for the Dodgers.

So, until the wild card game a month from now, that’s it for the NL winner-take-all contests. Maybe I’ll grow to like the one game wild card playoff, but I hope not.

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AL winner-take-all games and the new wild card format

As we approach the home stretch before this year’s playoffs, the oddity that is the new wild card system looms. To determine the final entrant in the real playoff tournament, fans are now guaranteed two winner-take-all games every year to separate the real wild card entrant from the pretender. Reminds me of the bizarre special fan vote to determine the last man on the All-Star roster.

Though this wild card qualifier will officially be a post-season game, it really feels more like a playoff game added on to the regular season. So, in tribute to the real regular season winner-take-all games, here’s a remembrance of what once were pretty rare occurrences but now will be happening every year.

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Pyth-Off: The Race for the Best Luck-Free Record

Most HHS readers will be familiar with the “pythagorean expectation” in baseball. That’s the concept, originally formulated by Bill James, that over time one can get a better sense of a team’s true talent level by looking at its runs scored and runs allowed (within a relatively simple mathematical formula) than at its actual win-loss record. The theory, which has well-stood the test of time and further study, is that actual win-loss records can be subject to random fluctuations in the distribution of runs across games, but that with a large enough sample to smooth out such random fluctuations those runs scored and runs allowed numbers will prevail as the the more accurate determinant of the most talented teams.

The 2012 race for the best pythagorean-expectation-based record in the AL is a tight one right now. Through last night’s games, the Rangers have (using b-ref’s version of the Pythagorean calculation) a record of 76-53, merely one game ahead of the Yankees, whose Pythag record is 75-54. You have to go back to 2005 to find a season in which an Eastern Division team failed to hold the best Pythag record in the AL. After the jump is a list of the season-by-season leaders in Pythag record in the American League during the three-division era. Continue reading

Politics

If you blog about politics, or administer a website about politics, let me know. I am working with a fantastic new group that is running a fantasy competition (like fantasy baseball) all about politics, and they are looking to pay people to refer new users. Email me andy@ (this blog address) or just post a comment below and I’lll email you.

Adam Dunn, meet David Letterman

Adam Dunn’s most unusual season is an endless source of quirky statistical curiosities. Dunn launched two more bombs Friday night for a total of 38, with over five weeks still left in the season. Forty is obviously in sight, and fifty long balls is not out of the question. Yet our hero’s batting average remains precariously close to the Mendoza line.

After the jump, I’ll look at Adam’s season in context, using David Letterman’s famous statistical analysis tool, the Top 10 list.

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Sunday game notes (just in time!)

Cardinals 8, @Reds 2: With a 17-hit fusillade, St. Louis captured the rubber game of a series in which each winner scored 8 runs, and built a 2-game lead for the 2nd wild-card. With 18 runs and 43 hits in the series, they upped their NL-best marks to 4.94 R/G and .277 BA, the highest in the Senior Circuit since 2009 and 2008, respectively.

  • Allen Craig‘s combined 2011-12 stats (160 games): .317/.945, 31 HRs, 111 RBI, 99 Runs, 302 total bases. His 156 OPS+ ranks 9th in MLB among players with 500+ PAs in that span.
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Reigning at the Hot Corner

Who is the “most valuable third baseman in baseball”?  Wins Above Replacement can be one tool to help answer that sort of question, but using a single season’s WAR number can sometimes leave us subject to random fluctuations in single-season performance that may not fully reflect a player’s real, long-term value.  For that reason, I like to use a longer-term test of true WAR-generating results, say for example, over a three-year period.  Let’s try a three-year test over the history of the third base position and see what we come up with as a running measure of who has been the “most valuable third baseman in baseball”. Continue reading

Remembering Albert: Pujols hit #400 2 years ago today

Albert Pujols / USPRESSWIRE

Today in 2010, Albert Pujols hit career homer run #400. He was the 3rd youngest player to reach that plateau, behind just Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr.

At the time, Pujols seemed unstoppable. Over the first 10 full years of his career (2001-2010) he averaged 40.8 HR and 123.0 RBI per season. Thanks to injuries and a slip in his performance, though, he hasn’t been quite the same guy since.

That day 2 years ago was the 1,523rd game of Pujols’ career. Through that game he had 400 HR in 6636 plate appearances, or 1 HR every 16.6 PAs.

Since then, through yesterday, Pujols has played in 303 games. He’s hit 73 HR in 1323 plate appearances, or 1 HR every 18.1 PAs.

That may not seem like a huge difference, but let’s imagine that Pujols ends up with 12,000 career plate appearances, around 15th all-time. At his earlier HR rate of 1 per 16.6, that would mean 722 career homers. At his more recent rate of 1 per 18.1, it would mean 662 career homers. The first number is just ahead of Ruth, while the second number is just ahead of Mays.

I’m just sayin’.