47 thoughts on “Derek Jeter IS having a very unusual season…”

1. John Autin August 23, 2012 at 10:34 am

   I hear that he drank unicorn blood.

   ‘Course, that’s just hearsay from the centaur who used to play next to him….

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   1. Andy Post authorAugust 23, 2012 at 10:35 am

      JA, it wasn’t unicorn blood. This kind of garbage comment has no place on this blog.

      It was the blood of Pegasus 🙂

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2. Matthew Glidden August 23, 2012 at 10:45 am

   Kingman’s 65 homers pop out from that list. Amazing to see his overall slugging % under guys who hit less than half that.

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   1. nightfly August 23, 2012 at 11:24 am

      The 65 dingers (and 185 rbi, both top of the table) do stand out, but I think you may have mixed columns. Kong is third on the list in slugging (.424) barely behind Ryne Sandberg and Jeromy Burnitz. He does, however, have the absolute lowest OBA on that list, and by a fair margin: .283, the only number lower than .300 (Stovall and Santiago check in at .305 each).

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3. Mike L August 23, 2012 at 10:56 am

   Oh, goodie. Jeter rumors. Can’t get more of a Melky match than Derek Jeter.

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   1. nightfly August 23, 2012 at 11:33 am

      Seconded. I can’t stand the Jeter hagiography, but the man is a legitimately great player, certain HoF material, and people are getting worked up over him for… well, what exactly, I don’t know. It’s not like he suddenly hit forty homers this year. He’s always been a high-average guy with a lot of singles. Almost nothing he’s done this year seems out of line with his career profile, it’s just that the last two years his BABip was down (.307 and .336, and this year it’s back up to about where he usually is (.351 vs career of .355).

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      1. MikeD August 23, 2012 at 1:28 pm

         Skip Bayless doesn’t count as people!

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   2. Lawrence Azrin August 23, 2012 at 2:34 pm

      W-H-A-T allegations? Did Skip Bayless actually say that he suspected Jeter of using PEDs because of his resurgence this year?? If so, #6 and #13 have got it about right…

      To paraphrase Bryce Harper, “That’s a clown statement, bro!”

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4. Andrew August 23, 2012 at 11:24 am

   Jeter’s season isn’t THAT markedly different from Parker or Biggio’s – these “allegations” aren’t anything more than Skip Bayless being a clown.

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   1. Hartvig August 23, 2012 at 12:25 pm

      I think Biggio is a pretty good comp- his decline starting at 34 years old was even more pronounced that Jeter’s and he managed to come back and put up an OPS+ of over 100 in his 28th & 39th years. I suspect that if you were to expand the parameters a little bit and reduced the number of plate appearances to 800 it would be a whole lot less uncommon.

      It is sad though that when someone does something like this PED’s almost automatically come to mind. Still, Bayless was way off base for even mentioning it with ZERO evidence or even a historical reference point like Andy has done here.

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5. Mike L August 23, 2012 at 12:00 pm

   Seriously, there’s only one thing about Jeter that seems different to me this year, which is that he seems to be pulling a little more for power. Maybe he’s cheating a bit compared to the way he used to hit to compensate for slowing reflexes.

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6. Voomo Zanzibar August 23, 2012 at 1:20 pm

   Here’s where Jeter is getting it done, and getting it done with power:

   Vs lefties:

   .378 .405 .598 1.002

   as 1st batter of the game:

   .393 .409 .607 1.016

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   1. Voomo Zanzibar August 23, 2012 at 1:24 pm

      He is clearly being more aggressive.

      2012

      SO%
      11.6%

      BB%
      5.4%

      Career

      SO%
      14.7%

      BB%
      8.7%

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7. Brooklyn Mick August 23, 2012 at 1:27 pm

   If Skip really wanted to sensationalize so he could trend on Twitter, he should have picked on one of the true good guys who is beyond reproach, like the other Cabrera who plays opposite in the infield from a Prince. Surely no one would believe that. Silly Skip.

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8. Pat O'Dougherty August 23, 2012 at 2:08 pm

   Jeter is now one of ten yankees this season with 13 or more home runs. By season’s end it could easily be 10 with 15 or more home runs. I wonder if that’s the @min home run record for ten players on a team.(“@min” is what I call records dealing with the highest of the lowest)

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   1. Doug August 23, 2012 at 2:17 pm

      The most players with 15 HR is 9, by the Rangers and Indians, both in 2005. The most by a Yankees team is 8, in 1998, 2000, 2004 and 2009.

      This year’s 10 Yankees with 13 HRs is the most ever at that level (and it’s still August).

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      1. Richard Chester August 23, 2012 at 9:30 pm

         It’s also 10 Yankees each of whom has more HRs than the team total of triples, which is 11.

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9. birtelcom August 23, 2012 at 2:45 pm

   I’m not sure it’s quite fair to limit the comparables to guys who were hitting below average at ages 36-37. Hitting stats do jump around some from year to year, based on random noise, even for old guys. It is certainly not unprecedented for a guy who had an OPS+ around 121 through age 35 (that was Jeter’s career OPS+ through age 35) to squeeze out a year around his career level (or better) at age 38. Ron Cey and Darrell Evans put up OPS+ numbers of 138 at age 38. Ron Fairly had a 124 OPS+ year at age 38. Also at age 38, Harold Baines had a 120 OPS+, Jeff Kent a 119 OPS+ (in 2006, with steroids testing in place), Brian Downing 118. Players who have had long careers as excellent hitters do sometimes do at 38 what Jeter is doing this year.

   By the way, Jeff Kent will be a competitor on “Survivor” this fall, which should be amusing. Never a guy known around baseball for his subtle social skills. I’ve followed “Survivor” from its beginning and always find it interesting, though it’s the only “reality” television I ever watch (unless of course you count MLB and other sports in that category).

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10. MikeD August 23, 2012 at 5:46 pm

    Seems like a fair point. Until I saw Andy’s post, I didn’t really view Jeter’s season as unprecedented, and after thinking about it a bit more, I still don’t when viewed in the context of his entire career.

    Jeter’s greatest strength through his career was his seasonal, metronome-like consistency over the first fourteen years of his career. If not for his ’10 and ’11 seasons, we wouldn’t even be noticing Jeter right now because this season fits in perfectly fine with his overall body of work. His 119 OPS+ this season is right at his career average, and indeed as you noted a couple ticks lower than his 121 career OPS+ through 2009. He has nine years with higher seasonal OPS+’s, and his 119 right now is a far cry from his career best 153 in 1999. We’re also reviewing his season while he’s in the midst of a hot streak that has pulled up all of his seasonal stats. He’ll regress some, no doubt.

    Last, while Jeter’s ’10 and ’11 seasons led most of us to believe that he had started a sudden decline, it really was roughly a one year stretch (Mid-May ’10 through June ’11) that ended up impacting two seasonal years. While he had a blah May that year hitting .281, his triple-slash seasonal line on June 1 was still a solid .307/.354/.436. He slumped the second half of the year, and then started tinkering with his swing at the end of that season and the start of the ’11, something he had never done prior. One could say that I’m using arbitrary start and end points, yet seasons are arbitrary start and end points too. Seeing that two years of lower-than-usual production from Jeter was confined to a one-year period might be useful, especially since his trip to the DL in June ’11 allowed him to work with Yankee scout Gary Denbo, who was his original batting coach, and helped restore Jeter’s hitting approach to what it was prior.

    I do believe that Jeter has entered his decline phase, and it probably started back in 2008. What’s different is many of us thought he had entered a more rapid decline based on what we saw in 2010. Looking at his career overall, it appears he’s made some adjustments, and his decline is much more gradual.

    Yet there is one question I have, really for myself. Why am I even participating in a conversation started by Skip Bayless!

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    1. MikeD August 23, 2012 at 5:50 pm

       BTW My post was in response to birtelcom’s. Not sure why it didn’t nest under his.

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    2. Andy Post authorAugust 23, 2012 at 5:54 pm

       Great points. It’s easy to forget that the moment Jeter got his 3000th hit, in July of 2011, his performance suddenly went through the roof. In the 162 games starting with that game, he had, I believe, 200 hits on the button.

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       1. Richard Chester August 23, 2012 at 6:17 pm

          Starting with the game of his 3000th hit Jeter accumulated 90 hits in 65 games. In his first 97 games of 2012 he accumulated 128 hits for a 162 game total of 218. These are only games in which he participated.

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11. Pathetic August 23, 2012 at 6:08 pm

    If you consider yourself a journalist, or want to be one, you better work a lot harder.

    Your analysis blows and this seems to be a pathetic attempt to piggyback off a ridiculous comment by a moron who provides “insight” for a company (ESPN) that constantly reminds everyone they are all about the ratings.

    I hope Derek Jeter and the Yankees seek some kind of liebel restitution in the form of people just shutting their damn mouths unless they have something to say worth hearing, not just trying to make a name for themself.

    You’re going to fall in the realm with that idiot from Mass who called Pat Tillman a non-hero just to be an idiot, as well as the idiot BLOGGER who DID THE SAME THING AS YOU ALREADY but with Raul Ibanez.

    It’s called an outlier. Look it up. Shit happens. he also happens to have 3,200 hits. You’re telling me this actually surprises you? Na, he’s not one of the best athletes to play this game or anything. Not like Rickey henderson was stealing second and third within a matter of 3 pitches well into his 40s.

    get a real job or a real life. but for godsake, stop what you’re doing.

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    1. MikeD August 23, 2012 at 6:38 pm

       If you’re upset with Bayless’ comments, then take it to ESPN. Yes, you’re right. ESPN and Bayless were just stirring the pot, looking for more clicks, viewers and eyeballs. Bayless basically even said at the end of the interview he wasn’t being serious.

       This is a blog, and using ESPN as a jumping-off point to discuss Jeter’s fine season at age 38, and where he fits statistically is not only fair game, it’s what this blog is about. Before posting again, you might want to understand the difference between blogs and other outlets, and what this community is about. The writers and posters understand the concept of outliers better than most and, yes, Jeter is an outlier, which makes him more interesting at age 38 than age 28, especially to the HHS community.

       The post and repsonses have all been reasonable, with the exception of one, a rather pathetic one. Guess which one.

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       1. Andy Post authorAugust 23, 2012 at 8:11 pm

          The interesting thing about the comment you reference is that it doesn’t seem to be in response to my actual post. My post doesn’t make any judgments about Jeter—it’s just a list of statistical facts. I don’t think my post really has much to do with Bayless’ comments one way or the other.

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          1. MikeD August 23, 2012 at 8:38 pm

             True, I did notice he was referencing things not in your post, or even in the thread of notes, hence why I said go take it up with ESPN. Yet logically it seemed to be directed toward your post, but therein lies the problem. I was attempting to find logic in his note, where none existed.

             I should have followed my initial instinct of not saying anything at all. I also considered it possible he was just trolling.

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       2. Nash Bruce August 24, 2012 at 6:33 am

          very good response, MikeD………

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    2. birtelcom August 23, 2012 at 6:48 pm

       Agree with the characterization of any accusation of PED use that is based solely on succesful performance and nothing else, especially when it is made on a forum of enormous influence such as ESPN. Such an acusation is totally irresponsible. But I would also point out that it is almost certainly NOT something that a major league ballplayer could win a lawsuit on under American law. MLB players are public figures under American defamation law and for public figures to win a lawsuit for defamation they have to prove not just that the claim was false but that the accuser pretty much knew or had reason to know it was false (the “actual malice” requirement). Skip Bayless does not seem to know anything at all about anything, so he probably has an airtight defense.

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       1. Andy Post authorAugust 23, 2012 at 8:10 pm

          Especially a suit for “liebel”

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          1. Daniel Longmire August 24, 2012 at 2:13 am

             So this angry poster, who chooses to remain anonymous, uses his constitutionally enshrined right to free speech to endorse lawsuits that would coerce people to “shut their damn mouths.” Makes sense to me.

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    3. John Autin August 23, 2012 at 10:37 pm

       “What’s in a name?”

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    4. Hartvig August 24, 2012 at 1:31 am

       Apparently a lot, at least in this case.

       Bayless’ comments are inexcusable but as Andy has clearly shown, Jeter’s performance this season- based on historical precedents- is unusual.

       And kudo’s to MikeD @ 18- your explanation puts a lot of things into perspective and goes a long way towards providing a reason for this unusual occurrence.

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12. Jimbo August 23, 2012 at 6:33 pm

    I mentioned this very early in the season, I never thought it would last.

    Jeter has a very strong chance now of leading this season in hits, while also starting (and obviously ending) the season as the active hits leader. I believe we looked this up and nobody since Pete Rose had pulled it off.

    Very impressive if he puts up his 8th career 200 hit season.

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    1. Doug August 23, 2012 at 7:57 pm

       Besides Rose (1981), only others to do it since 1901 are Stan Musial (1952) and Ty Cobb (1919).

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    2. bstar August 23, 2012 at 9:00 pm

       I do remember that discussion, Jimbo.

       Jeter needs 31 hits in the Yankees’ last 38 games to reach 200. In his worst hitting month this year, June, Jeter batted .232 and still got 26 hits in 26 games played.

       Barring injury, he looks like a pretty solid bet for 200 hits this year.

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       1. Doug August 23, 2012 at 10:16 pm

          Jeter needs 40 more hits for the most ever in an age 38 season. If he gets to 200, he’ll be the 4th to do so in an age 38 season, joining Rose, Jake Daubert and Sam Rice. Jeter needs only 13 more hits to best Honus Wagner for most hits by a 38 year-old shortstop.

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13. Howard August 23, 2012 at 9:04 pm

    Brady Anderson is “supremely overrated”? He did poorly in MVP voting even when he hit fifty HRs, was only named to three all-star teams, never won a gold glove and you hardly hear his name any more, at least outside of Baltimore. That’s not the resume of a supremely overrated player.

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    1. Andy Post authorAugust 23, 2012 at 9:20 pm

       Yeah, in Brady’s case I meant that the general public overrates him because of that 50 HR season. Garret is overrated even among ardent fans due to high RBI totals (ala Joe Carter).

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       1. Howard August 24, 2012 at 8:04 am

          Understood though I think because of that 50 HR season he is seen more as an underachiever for the rest of his career rather than overrated. For that one season he actually was about as good as the general perception public’s perception of him. No need to explain about Garret who I agree was supremely overrated.

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          1. Andy Post authorAugust 24, 2012 at 8:39 am

             Fair point. I just get such a bad taste in my mouth when I think about either Anderson–I probably overgeneralized with my original statement.

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14. John Nacca August 23, 2012 at 10:17 pm

    Skip Bayless is only one reason….albeit the biggest one…….I do not watch ESPN what-so-ever. He himself negates at least 1000 decent people on network television….ALL network television, from announcers to color guys to “on course golf analysts” to camera operators to boom mike holders, etc.

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15. Mark in Sydney August 24, 2012 at 1:22 am

    Breaking news!

    Have you checked Ichiro’s numbers since joining the Bombers? With Seattle he hit 1HR/100PA, with NY it is 1HR/30PA. Clearly there is something in the Kool-aid. It can be the only explanation.

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    1. Jimbo August 24, 2012 at 4:33 am

       Safeco field just kills power numbers. I’ve often felt that teams with parks like Safeco should only invest big bucks in pitchers. Hitters go to San Diego, Seattle, and San Francisco to die. Their numbers disappoint them, they press, etc.

       Those teams should invest heavily in pitching, and fill up on cheap speedy players like Juan Pierre, Rajai Davis, etc.

       Conversely, lefties like Curtis Granderson thrive in the new Yankee Stadium. Ichiro’s home runs should have surprised nobody.

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    2. Lawrence Azrin August 24, 2012 at 10:54 am

       I think Ichiro’s HRs as a Yankee have more to do with that jetstream from home plate to the short porch in right field.

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16. Nash Bruce August 24, 2012 at 6:40 am

    Sooooo……..altho, often times, this has no basis in reality(as we all know), any over/under on the amount of MVP support/votes that Jeter gets this year??

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    1. Tmckelv August 24, 2012 at 9:15 am

       If he keeps up his August numbers the rest of the season he might get a top 10 finish, but he won’t come close to winning. Especially if the Yanks don’t win the division.

       He lost out in 2006 and 2009 when I felt he had real chances of winning the MVP.
       2006 – 2nd place – he had 5.4 WAR (Morneau 4.0)
       2009 – 3rd place – he had 6.4 WAR (Mauer 7.6, Teixeira 5.1).

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