Let youth be served: 2012 makes a mark

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Earlier this month, Rangers’ second baseman Jurickson Profar (an early finalist for the All-Name team) made his major league debut, homering in his first PA, only the third time since 1918 that a player under age 20 has done that.

Rk Gcar Player Age Date Tm Opp Rslt PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BOP Pos. Summary
1 1 Jurickson Profar 19.195 2012-09-02 TEX CLE W  8-3 4 4 1 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 9 2B
2 1 Denny McLain 19.176 1963-09-21 DET CHW W  4-3 3 3 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 9 P
3 1 Ted Tappe 19.224 1950-09-14 (1) CIN BRO L  3-6 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 9 PH
4 1 Whitey Lockman 18.345 1945-07-05 NYG STL L  5-7 4 4 1 2 1 0 1 4 0 1 3 CF
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/3/2012.

The player on the list above who didn’t homer in his first PA is pitcher Denny McLain, who nonetheless homered in his first game and (as it turned out) for the only time in his career.

After the jump, I’ll look at bit more at these and other precocious players.

Profar is the 3rd player in his age 19 season to debut this year, and the third to make a splash doing so.

Rk Player G OPS+ Year Age Tm PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Bryce Harper 115 109 2012 19 WSN 500 447 79 116 20 7 17 47 47 100 .260 .329 .450 .779 *8*9/7
2 Manny Machado 27 121 2012 19 BAL 102 99 13 29 5 3 4 14 2 19 .293 .304 .525 .829 *5
3 Jurickson Profar 2 297 2012 19 TEX 5 5 1 2 1 0 1 1 0 1 .400 .400 1.200 1.600 /*4
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/8/2012.

The three teenage debuts this year are the most in any season since 1996, and only the 4th time since 1981 with that many. Here’s a chart of teenagers debuting since 1901.


So, fairly constant in the low single digits each year, since the early 1970s. Notable spikes in the Federal League years, during WWII and during the Bonus Baby era. For those unfamiliar, the bonus baby system existed from 1947 to 1965 and was essentially an open market for signing top amateur talent. To provide limits and prevent the richest teams with the deepest farm systems from acquiring the lion’s share of top talent, players signing above a specified contract value had to play on a major league roster. Thus, from the late 40s into the late 60s, there are elevated levels of teenagers in the major leagues just about every year.

But, how well have those players fared in their careers? Was their precociousness a good indicator of their true talent, or might they have been better served with more seasoning in the minors? Following are charts showing the career value of players debuting as teenagers. First for the position players.

This chart is showing percentage of players debuting as teenagers in each decade who compiled career WAR at different levels. Remember that the absolute number of players represented by these percentages has reduced dramatically since the 1960s.

Until the 1990s, over 20% (and up to over 60%) of players debuting as teenagers failed to compile even 1 WAR. That is, they had really short careers. In the 2000s though, all teenage debuts (admittedly, a much smaller absolute number) have compiled at least 1 WAR and two-thirds have passed 10 WAR. So far this decade, one of the four teenagers to debut (Mike Trout) is already over 10 WAR. Conclusion: Since the bonus baby system was scrapped, teams have become much more discriminating in the players they bring up as teenagers. Thus, the few players who do start very young are truly outstanding prospects who generally thrive as big-leaguers.

What’s the story for pitchers?

Prior to the 1970s, the pattern resembles that for hitters with over half the pitchers failing to compile even 1 WAR.

Fast forward to today and we’re still waiting for our first teenage pitcher of this decade.

Of the 16 teenage pitchers to debut since the 1980s, it’s been kind of feast or famine with 4 over 25 WAR but 10 under 10 WAR. Here’s that list

Rk Player WAR ▾ From To Age G GS CG SHO GF W L W-L% SV IP BB SO ERA ERA+ Tm
1 Dwight Gooden 45.1 1984 2000 19-35 430 410 68 24 4 194 112 .634 3 2800.2 954 2293 3.51 111 NYM-NYY-CLE-TOT
2 Fernando Valenzuela 34.2 1980 1997 19-36 453 424 113 31 10 173 153 .531 2 2930.0 1151 2074 3.54 104 LAD-CAL-BAL-PHI-SDP-TOT
3 Jose Rijo 33.0 1984 2002 19-37 376 269 22 4 43 116 91 .560 3 1880.0 663 1606 3.24 121 NYY-OAK-CIN
4 Felix Hernandez 31.8 2005 2012 19-26 234 234 23 9 0 98 74 .570 0 1597.0 473 1459 3.17 130 SEA
5 Wilson Alvarez 22.9 1989 2005 19-35 355 263 12 5 18 102 92 .526 4 1747.2 805 1330 3.96 112 TEX-CHW-TOT-TBD-LAD
6 Edwin Jackson 11.7 2003 2012 19-28 230 200 5 3 9 69 70 .496 0 1247.1 491 950 4.38 98 LAD-TBD-TBR-DET-TOT-WSN
7 Madison Bumgarner 7.2 2009 2012 19-22 83 80 2 1 1 34 29 .540 0 514.0 115 460 3.12 116 SFG
8 Mark Davis 6.1 1980 1997 19-36 624 85 4 2 265 51 84 .378 96 1145.0 534 1007 4.17 89 PHI-SFG-TOT-SDP-KCR-MIL
9 Rich Garces 4.3 1990 2002 19-31 287 0 0 0 60 23 10 .697 7 341.1 164 296 3.74 128 MIN-TOT-BOS
10 Ed Nunez 3.5 1982 1994 19-31 427 14 0 0 211 28 36 .438 54 652.1 280 508 4.19 98 SEA-TOT-DET-MIL-OAK
11 Rick Ankiel 3.3 1999 2004 19-24 51 41 0 0 1 13 10 .565 1 242.0 130 269 3.90 119 STL
12 Ed Correa 1.0 1985 1987 19-21 52 48 4 2 3 16 19 .457 0 282.2 189 260 5.16 85 CHW-TEX
14 Rosario Rodriguez -0.1 1989 1991 19-21 34 0 0 0 16 2 2 .500 6 30.0 13 18 4.80 81 CIN-PIT
15 Matt Riley -0.1 1999 2005 19-25 26 18 0 0 0 5 4 .556 0 97.2 72 78 5.99 77 BAL-TEX
16 Todd Van Poppel -1.7 1991 2004 19-32 359 98 2 1 84 40 52 .435 4 907.0 461 711 5.58 80 OAK-TOT-CHC-TEX-CIN
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/10/2012.

Finally, these are the all-time WAR leaders for players debuting as teenagers. First, the position players.

Rk Player WAR/pos OPS+ From To Age G PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
1 Babe Ruth 159.2 206 1914 1935 19-40 2503 10620 2174 2873 506 136 714 2213 2062 1330 123 .342 .474 .690
2 Ty Cobb 144.9 168 1905 1928 18-41 3034 13078 2246 4189 724 295 117 1938 1249 680 897 .366 .433 .512
3 Tris Speaker 127.8 157 1907 1928 19-40 2790 11991 1882 3514 792 222 117 1529 1381 395 436 .345 .428 .500
4 Rogers Hornsby 124.6 175 1915 1937 19-41 2259 9481 1579 2930 541 169 301 1584 1038 679 135 .358 .434 .577
5 Eddie Collins 118.5 142 1906 1930 19-43 2825 12040 1821 3315 438 187 47 1300 1499 468 741 .333 .424 .429
6 Alex Rodriguez 112.2 143 1994 2012 18-36 2503 11064 1886 2880 511 30 646 1943 1206 2006 316 .301 .385 .563
7 Mickey Mantle 105.5 172 1951 1968 19-36 2401 9907 1676 2415 344 72 536 1509 1733 1710 153 .298 .421 .557
8 Mel Ott 104.0 155 1926 1947 17-38 2730 11348 1859 2876 488 72 511 1860 1708 896 89 .304 .414 .533
9 Joe Morgan 97.1 132 1963 1984 19-40 2649 11329 1650 2517 449 96 268 1133 1865 1015 689 .271 .392 .427
10 Jimmie Foxx 92.5 163 1925 1945 17-37 2317 9676 1751 2646 458 125 534 1922 1452 1311 87 .325 .428 .609
11 Al Kaline 87.4 134 1953 1974 18-39 2834 11596 1622 3007 498 75 399 1583 1277 1020 137 .297 .376 .480
12 Ken Griffey 79.2 136 1989 2010 19-40 2671 11304 1662 2781 524 38 630 1836 1312 1779 184 .284 .370 .538
13 Brooks Robinson 72.7 104 1955 1977 18-40 2896 11782 1232 2848 482 68 268 1357 860 990 28 .267 .322 .401
14 Robin Yount 72.4 115 1974 1993 18-37 2856 12249 1632 3142 583 126 251 1406 966 1350 271 .285 .342 .430
15 Johnny Bench 72.3 126 1967 1983 19-35 2158 8674 1091 2048 381 24 389 1376 891 1278 68 .267 .342 .476
16 Harry Heilmann 67.3 148 1914 1932 19-37 2147 8960 1291 2660 542 151 183 1539 856 550 113 .342 .410 .520
17 Alan Trammell 67.1 110 1977 1996 19-38 2293 9376 1231 2365 412 55 185 1003 850 874 236 .285 .352 .415
18 Tim Raines 66.2 123 1979 2002 19-42 2502 10359 1571 2605 430 113 170 980 1330 966 808 .294 .385 .425
19 Ivan Rodriguez 63.8 106 1991 2011 19-39 2543 10270 1354 2844 572 51 311 1332 513 1474 127 .296 .334 .464
20 Joe Cronin 61.9 119 1926 1945 19-38 2124 8840 1233 2285 515 118 170 1424 1059 700 87 .301 .390 .468
21 Adrian Beltre 59.4 111 1998 2012 19-33 2095 8617 1076 2201 460 30 340 1202 573 1292 115 .279 .330 .474
22 Andruw Jones 59.3 111 1996 2012 19-35 2185 8641 1202 1931 383 36 433 1286 885 1745 152 .255 .337 .486
23 Gary Sheffield 56.1 140 1988 2009 19-40 2576 10947 1636 2689 467 27 509 1676 1475 1171 253 .292 .393 .514
24 Sherry Magee 55.8 137 1904 1919 19-34 2087 8545 1112 2169 425 166 83 1176 736 621 441 .291 .364 .427
25 Harmon Killebrew 55.8 143 1954 1975 18-39 2435 9833 1283 2086 290 24 573 1584 1559 1699 19 .256 .376 .509
26 Hank Greenberg 55.1 158 1930 1947 19-36 1394 6097 1051 1628 379 71 331 1276 852 844 58 .313 .412 .605
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/10/2012.

Not that it changes the ranking order, but Ruth’s overall WAR (hitting and pitching) comes in at a lofty 178.3, first among all players and twenty WAR clear of Barry Bonds in second place.

And, the pitchers.

Rk Player WAR From To Age G GS CG SHO GF W L W-L% SV IP BB SO ERA ERA+ Tm
1 Walter Johnson 144.7 1907 1927 19-39 802 666 531 110 127 417 279 .599 34 5914.1 1363 3509 2.17 147 WSH
2 Bert Blyleven 90.7 1970 1992 19-41 692 685 242 60 3 287 250 .534 0 4970.0 1322 3701 3.31 118 MIN-TEX-PIT-CLE-TOT-CAL
3 Nolan Ryan 77.4 1966 1993 19-46 807 773 222 61 13 324 292 .526 3 5386.0 2795 5714 3.19 112 NYM-CAL-HOU-TEX
4 Jim Palmer 63.2 1965 1984 19-38 558 521 211 53 15 268 152 .638 4 3948.0 1311 2212 2.86 125 BAL
5 Bob Feller 59.9 1936 1956 17-37 570 484 279 44 52 266 162 .621 21 3827.0 1764 2581 3.25 122 CLE
6 Don Drysdale 57.4 1956 1969 19-32 518 465 167 49 34 209 166 .557 6 3432.0 855 2486 2.95 121 BRO-LAD
7 Hal Newhouser 55.8 1939 1955 18-34 488 374 212 33 79 207 150 .580 26 2993.0 1249 1796 3.06 130 DET-CLE
8 Frank Tanana 52.6 1973 1993 19-39 638 616 143 34 10 240 236 .504 1 4188.1 1255 2773 3.66 106 CAL-BOS-TEX-DET-TOT
9 Sandy Koufax 50.3 1955 1966 19-30 397 314 137 40 44 165 87 .655 9 2324.1 817 2396 2.76 131 BRO-LAD
10 Billy Pierce 50.0 1945 1964 18-37 585 432 193 38 84 211 169 .555 32 3306.2 1178 1999 3.27 119 DET-CHW-SFG
11 Wilbur Wood 49.3 1961 1978 19-36 651 297 114 24 198 164 156 .513 57 2684.0 724 1411 3.24 114 BOS-TOT-PIT-CHW
12 Red Ruffing 48.6 1924 1947 19-42 624 538 335 45 69 273 225 .548 16 4344.0 1541 1987 3.80 109 BOS-TOT-NYY-CHW
13 Waite Hoyt 48.4 1918 1938 18-38 674 425 226 26 171 237 182 .566 52 3762.1 1003 1206 3.59 112 NYG-BOS-NYY-PIT-TOT-BRO
14 Early Wynn 46.5 1939 1963 19-43 691 612 290 49 66 300 244 .551 15 4564.0 1775 2334 3.54 107 WSH-CHW-CLE
15 Dwight Gooden 45.1 1984 2000 19-35 430 410 68 24 4 194 112 .634 3 2800.2 954 2293 3.51 111 NYM-NYY-CLE-TOT
16 Wes Ferrell 45.1 1927 1941 19-33 374 323 227 17 43 193 128 .601 13 2623.0 1040 985 4.04 116 CLE-BOS-TOT-NYY-BRO-BSN
17 Milt Pappas 43.2 1957 1973 18-34 520 465 129 43 33 209 164 .560 4 3186.0 858 1728 3.40 110 BAL-CIN-ATL-TOT-CHC
18 Mel Harder 42.2 1928 1947 18-37 582 433 181 25 95 223 186 .545 23 3426.1 1118 1161 3.80 113 CLE
19 Vida Blue 41.3 1969 1986 19-36 502 473 143 37 11 209 161 .565 2 3343.1 1185 2175 3.27 108 OAK-KCR-SFG
20 Chief Bender 40.8 1903 1925 19-41 459 334 255 40 109 212 127 .625 34 3017.0 712 1711 2.46 112 PHA-BAL-PHI-CHW
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/10/2012.

8 thoughts on “Let youth be served: 2012 makes a mark”

  1. Andy

    We had a discussion about this post on Twitter where somebody incorrectly guessed that it was Hoyt Wilhelm who homered in his first game and then never again. Wilhelm, in fact, homered in his first AT-BAT, but that didn’t come it his first game, and then never homered again.

    Reply ↓
    1. Doug Post author

      Here’s the complete list of players to homer in their first game and never again (or not yet).

      Rk Player Year HR From To Age G PA BA OBP SLG OPS Pos Tm
      1 Steven Hill 2012 1 2010 2012 25-27 8 11 .273 .273 .636 .909 /32 STL
      2 Tommy Milone 2012 1 2011 2012 24-25 32 15 .182 .182 .455 .636 /*1 WSN-OAK
      3 Jurickson Profar 2012 1 2012 2012 19-19 3 9 .333 .333 .889 1.222 /64 TEX
      4 Eddy Rodriguez 2012 1 2012 2012 26-26 2 7 .200 .429 .800 1.229 /*2 SDP
      5 Wilkin Ramirez 2011 1 2009 2011 23-25 35 43 .270 .349 .459 .808 /7D9 DET-ATL
      6 Mark Saccomanno 2008 1 2008 2008 28-28 10 11 .200 .200 .600 .800 /3 HOU
      7 Brandon Watson 2007 1 2005 2007 23-25 40 96 .198 .250 .279 .529 /87 WSN-TOT
      8 Dave Matranga 2005 1 2003 2005 26-28 7 6 .167 .167 .667 .833 /4 HOU-LAA
      9 Marty Malloy 2002 1 1998 2002 26-30 35 58 .151 .211 .226 .437 /45 ATL-FLA
      10 Mitch Lyden 1993 1 1993 1993 28-28 6 10 .300 .300 .600 .900 /2 FLA
      11 Ray Stephens 1992 1 1990 1992 27-29 19 37 .171 .194 .286 .480 /*2D STL-TEX
      12 Andre David 1986 1 1984 1986 26-28 38 63 .245 .349 .340 .689 /79D MIN
      13 Jamie Nelson 1983 1 1983 1983 23-23 40 111 .219 .309 .281 .590 /*2 SEA
      14 Dave Machemer 1979 1 1978 1979 27-28 29 55 .229 .302 .333 .635 /*45D67 CAL-DET
      15 Denny McLain 1972 1 1963 1972 19-28 285 709 .133 .166 .153 .318 *1 DET-WSA-TOT
      16 Hal Haydel 1971 1 1970 1971 25-26 35 6 .500 .500 1.167 1.667 /*1 MIN
      17 Bobby Locke 1968 1 1959 1968 25-34 168 113 .255 .318 .306 .624 *1 CLE-TOT-PHI-CIN-CAL
      18 Bill Roman 1965 1 1964 1965 25-26 24 37 .143 .189 .229 .418 /3 DET
      19 Cuno Barragan 1963 1 1961 1963 29-31 69 190 .202 .298 .270 .568 /*2 CHC
      20 Dan Bankhead 1951 1 1947 1951 27-31 62 48 .222 .271 .311 .582 /*1 BRO
      21 Dummy Lynch 1948 1 1948 1948 22-22 7 8 .286 .375 .714 1.089 /4 CHC
      22 Red Durrett 1945 1 1944 1945 23-24 19 60 .146 .293 .229 .522 /89 BRO
      23 Bill LeFebvre 1944 1 1938 1944 22-28 75 103 .276 .382 .414 .796 /13 BOS-WSH
      24 Eddie Morgan 1937 1 1936 1937 21-22 39 79 .212 .325 .303 .628 /9387 STL-BRO
      Reply ↓
    4. birtelcom

      One reason today for a team to avoid bringing up a teenager, unless he is so truly extraordinary it’s irresistible, is that you are starting his major league service time clock very early. With six years of major league service time before a player hits free agency, the team who drafted he player has to ask: would we rather have this guy under our control and playing major league ball at 19 and 20 or instead have him at 26 and 27 when he is likely in his prime?

      Reply ↓
      1. Lawrence Azrin

        That’s what happened with Alex Rodriguez and the Mariners; since he played some at ages 18/19 (17/48 games),he left the Mariners via free agency after his age-24 season. Most free agents don’t leave until their age-27 season, or later.

        Reply ↓
        1. Phil Gaskill

          Yeah, but the M’s were indeed hoping for Case A (birtelcom’s words: “unless he is so truly extraordinary it’s irresistible”); and indeed he *did* help them reach the playoffs, what was it, three times in six years: ’95, he only had 149 PA’s in what was his second year, so he didn’t really have all that much to do with that; ’97, where he DID have something to do with it, with a 120 OPS+; and 2000, where he really tore up the league with 41 HR and a 163. Remember that the M’s had never, ever been even CLOSE to the postseason until ’95 (first year: 1977); to then get there three times in six years is far better than most teams ever do.

          Was he worth it? Hard to say for sure. But at least it wasn’t a *total* waste, like it would have been if they’d still *never* gotten there. . . .

          Reply ↓
      2. Doug Post author

        Good thought, birtelcom. Kind of like the red-shirt freshman.

        So, we’ve gone from “use ’em or lose ’em” in the Bonus Baby days to “don’t use ’em or lose ’em early” now.

        Suppose one way to approach it is to bring up your phenom only in Sept until he’s 21, or something along those lines (i.e. you’re only adding a month to his service time). Problem with that is if a player is ready for the bigs now, he may get frustrated/bored/lazy staying in the minors, develop bad habits, regress, etc.

        Maybe the answer is some kind of sliding scale for free agent status whereby service time is weighted in some way by age, so that time accumulated at a yoinger age counts less that time accumulated later. Would also help the late starters (say a guy starting at 24 or 25) who currently may have to wait until after his prime before he can be a free agent.

        Reply ↓

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