Will the real Vance Worley please stand up? Please stand up… Please stand up… |

Vance Worley / USPRESSWIRE

Vance Worley had a wonderful start to his major-league career with the Phillies.

Through his Age 23 season (2011) he pitched 144.2 innings with 8.1 K/9, a 1.203 WHIP, and a 135 ERA+.

Here are some similar players. These guys all threw between 100 and 190 innings through their Age 23 season and had an ERA+ between 125 and 145:

Rk	Player	ERA+	IP	From	To	Age
1	Tim Hudson	142	136.1	1999	1999	23-23
2	Jim Hardin	140	111.0	1967	1967	23-23
3	Joey Hamilton	139	108.2	1994	1994	23-23
4	Kip Young	138	105.2	1978	1978	23-23
5	Vance Worley	135	144.2	2010	2011	22-23
6	Anibal Sanchez	134	144.1	2006	2007	22-23
7	Leo Kiely	134	113.1	1951	1951	21-21
8	Brad Bergesen	133	123.1	2009	2009	23-23
9	Jaime Garcia	132	179.1	2008	2010	21-23
10	Angel Miranda	129	120.0	1993	1993	23-23
11	Rick Reuschel	129	129.0	1972	1972	23-23
12	Luis Tiant	128	127.0	1964	1964	23-23
13	Oil Can Boyd	127	107.0	1982	1983	22-23

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/7/2012.

Not a bad group. A few didn’t do all that much in the majors, but there are some greats on there too like Reuschel, Tiant, and Hudson.

But then came 2012. In 133 innings so far, Worley has 7.2 K/9, a 1.511 WHIP and a 96 ERA+.

Here are comps. These guys had 120-180 IP in their Age 24 season with an ERA+ between 95 and 97:

Rk	Player	ERA+	IP	Year	Tm
1	Joaquin Andujar	97	158.2	1977	HOU
2	Vance Worley	96	133.0	2012	PHI
3	Jim Parque	96	173.2	1999	CHW
4	Josh Towers	96	140.1	2001	BAL
5	Wade Davis	96	168.0	2010	TBR
6	Aaron Laffey	96	121.2	2009	CLE
7	Daniel Cabrera	96	161.1	2005	BAL
8	Tony Armas	96	164.1	2002	MON
9	Red Causey	96	158.1	1918	NYG
10	Brad Halsey	96	160.0	2005	ARI
11	Tim Birtsas	95	141.1	1985	OAK
12	Hooks Wiltse	95	164.2	1904	NYG
13	Elmer Knetzer	95	132.2	1910	BRO
14	Steve Trout	95	120.1	1982	CHW
15	Mike Maroth	95	128.2	2002	DET

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/7/2012.

I set the IP limit to project out a bit, figuring that Worley will add a few innings to his total before he’s done this year.

Anyway, this group isn’t nearly as encouraging. Nobody on this list is a star, with the possible exception of Joaquin Andujar who got very lucky with his 20-win seasons and had some memorable post-season starts (but statistically was pretty much an average pitcher.)

The good news for Worley is that the sample size is small…an adjustment or two and perhaps he can look more like the guy he was before.

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deal

11 years ago

Worley is done for the yr. possibility he has been pitching w/ Bone chips this season – may have affected his performance.

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Andy

Reply to deal

Did not realize, thanks.

Editor

John Autin

The real Vance Worley may be the one we saw this year. His TTO rates were almost all the same as last year; what’s mainly changed is that his BAbip went from an unsustainable .237 up to .296, close to the NL average of .300.

Given Worley’s minor-league rates of 6.9 SO/9 and 8.9 H/9, his results this year — basically, an average NL starting pitcher — seems more “right” than last year’s results.

He’s still young, of course, and his TTO rates are all solid, so there’s a basis for possible improvement.

Brooklyn Mick

Reply to John Autin

I tend to agree John. As you mentioned, the SO/BB/HR rates are about the same, but the BAbip is markedly up. I realize that some consider BAbip a function of luck, and sometimes it is, but I believe that more often than not it’s a simple indication of being hit hard.

Time will tell after the surgery, but even last year’s “nice” season as the 5th starter was probably more the exception than the rule.

Unfortunately, I read from the wrong column. The numbers I cited were Worley’s BA, not his BAbip.

In fact, last year’s .290 BAbip was much more normal than this year’s .351, which completely negates my point.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled, fact-based discussion.

I don’t think it negates your point John. If anything, it’s further confirmation that, despite his 11-3 record and 135 ERA+ last year, he wasn’t really “that” good. In fact, he was probably more lucky than good, given that the BAbip of .290 wasn’t really commensurate with his record and ERA.

Michael Sullivan

Reply to Brooklyn Mick

Mick, I think John’s point is that BIP are much harder for a pitcher to control than TTOs, so the the effect of pure luck on BaBIP is large, which means that pitchers with unusually low or high BaBIPs tend to regress to the mean. Some pitchers do have consistently lower BaBIPs, but nobody holds them consistently more than 20-30 points below average. So a number like .290 could plausibly involve little or not positive luck, while a .351 almost certainly involves some bad luck. Meaning that this season is probably an aberration on the low side. If the original… Read more »

Doug

Reply to Michael Sullivan

nobody holds them consistently more than 20-30 points below average

Nobody except Mariano Rivera.

bstar

Michael, according to Fangraphs’ leaderboards I count 44 pitchers with a career BABIP under .270. A lot of them are elite closers with enough IP to qualify including Billy Wagner, Joe Nathan, Mariano, Trevor Hoffman, etc.

Tyler Clippard is the all-time leader at .237. Jeremy Hellickson, who has flummoxed almost as many Fangraphs writers with his BABIP-influencing skills as Matt Cain with his HR suppression skills, holds the best mark for starters at .240.

Disregard that last comment. That is data from only 2002-2012.

Lawrence Azrin

Visually, he reminds me Charlie Kerfeld (Astros 1980 relief pitcher – remember him?); big, goofy-looking guys with distinctive glasses. I hope that he has a longer career than Keffeld (4 years/123 G/201 IP).

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

Good one Lawrence! Both big guys with with a baby-fat look. Kerfeld was a pretty big part of that 1986 Astros team that played in that great series against the Mets. Poor Charlie took the loss in game 5 after pitching scoreless 10th and 11th innings after coming on in relief of Nolan Ryan, who went 9 innings, allowing only 2 hits and striking out 12. One of the hits was Strawberry’s homer in the 5th or 6th inning when he turned on a Ryan Express fastball. If I remember correctly, the home run was a frozen rope into the… Read more »

I remember two things in particular from the Mets-Astros ’86 ALDS:

-the EPIC back-and-forth 16-inning game six, of course
– how so many Mets players said that they _had_ to win game six, because they were scared to face Mike Scott in game seven

Sometimes the fun of these lists is remembering guys who maybe didn’t have great careers, but had bright shining moments.

Looking through the second list I see Joaquín Andújar and I’m instantly reliving the 1982 Suds Series. Boy, what a post-season he had, and he certainly had quite the mound presence.

Of course, Andujar didn’t have a bad career with his back to back 20-win seasons. If I remember correctly, he was emotional to the point of volatility, and that often interfered detrimentally with his performance. definitely a colorful character.

Hartvig

Whitey Herzog’s book has some good stuff in it about Andujar. He really liked him but he could be- let’s say “interesting”- to have to deal with sometimes.

In the second list is the rookie season for Hooks Wiltse. He turned out to be be a pretty good pitcher (career 139-90, 112 ERA+, twice won 20). Also on the second list is rookie season for Tim Birtsas. Turned out to be his only season as a starter, though he wasn’t any batter as a reliver for the Reds. His best ERA+ season came in his final year with 104 ERA+ and 1.812 WHIP, one of only 6 seasons (min. 50 IP) with 100 ERA+ and 1.8 WHIP (others were Scott Sauerbeck, Jose Mesa, Tommy Byrne, Dick Weik and… Read more »

The picture of Vance reminds me a bit of Gustavo Chacin. Chacin was a year older than Worsley but had similar career path: 1st year cup of coffee, 2nd year make a splash, 3rd year arm trouble and performnance drop.

Chacin’s arm trouble was popularly attributed to supposed overuse (34 starts, 203 IP) in his rookie season in 2004.

Insert Name Here

Reply to Doug

Interestingly, Worley and Chacin were briefly teammates with the Phillies’ AA affiliate in Reading in 2009. Worley was there for the whole ’09 season, well Chacin made one start and one relief appearance there before getting promoted to AAA. (When the Phillies picked up Chacin, he had fallen so far that he had spent the entire 2008 season at High-A (is that the correct term?), finishing that season with a 7.88 ERA, and then got released at the end of ’09 spring training by the Nationals, easily the team most desperate for pitching that season.)