The Hall of Peak Value

Soon after I posted my piece about the Hall of Could’ve Been, commenters started naming players who fit the title of the Hall better than most of the players I included.  Herb Score, Tony Conigliaro, Dickie Thon, J.R. Richard, Pete Reiser, and many other players had practically unlimited potential, only to see their careers derailed, usually by injury.  The two sets of criteria I established put the spotlight on a few players who could have been much more than they were and a few who actually did achieve greatness, but who just happened to have the right mix of single-season and career WAR to make the cut.

The players I listed may fit better in the Hall of Peak Value than in the Hall of Could’ve Been.

What if the Hall of Fame didn’t care about longevity?  Janis Joplin was dead at 27, but is in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame on the strength of one great solo album and a few prior efforts with different bands.  Bob Beamon is in the U.S. Olympic Hall of Fame for one very long jump- he never won another medal.  Baseball is somewhat rare in its refusal to immortalize players who were the best in the world for a short time.

If we repopulated the Hall of Fame- Hall of Stats style- with players who were the best in the game for a short period, we would add a few Noodles Hahn types, but the majority of the Hall would stay the same, right?  Let’s give it a try, based on these criteria:

1) Players with at least one season of 9 or more WAR since 1901 (per fangraphs; ranked by # 9-win seasons; * denotes a player not in the Hall of Fame)

Babe Ruth 11
*Barry Bonds 9
Rogers Hornsby 9
Willie Mays 9
Honus Wagner 8
Lou Gehrig 8
Ted Williams 7
*Alex Rodriguez 6
Stan Musial 6
Tris Speaker 6
Ty Cobb 6
Eddie Collins 5
Jimmie Foxx 5
Joe Morgan 5
Mickey Mantle 5
*Randy Johnson 5
Walter Johnson 5
Nap Lajoie 4
*Roger Clemens 4
*Albert Pujols 3
Bob Gibson 3
Carl Yastrzemski 3
Fergie Jenkins 3
Joe DiMaggio 3
*Ken Griffey, Jr. 3
Mike Schmidt 3
Ron Santo 3
Sandy Koufax 3
Steve Carlton 3
Wade Boggs 3
*Benny Kauff 2
Cal Ripken 2
Christy Mathewson 2
Cy Young 2
Duke Snider 2
Ed Walsh 2
Eddie Mathews 2
Ernie Banks 2
Hank Aaron 2
Jackie Robinson 2
*Joe Jackson 2
*Pedro Martinez 2
Pete Alexander 2
Rickey Henderson 2
Tom Seaver 2
*Adrian Beltre 1
*Al Rosen 1
Arky Vaughan 1
Bert Blyleven 1
Bob Feller 1
Brooks Robinson 1
Charlie Gehringer 1
*Craig Biggio 1
*Curt Schilling 1
*Cy Falkenberg 1
*Cy Seymour 1
*Darrell Evans 1
*Dave Davenport 1
*Dwight Gooden 1
Frank Baker 1
Frank Robinson 1
Frankie Frisch 1
*Fred Lynn 1
George Brett 1
*George Foster 1
George Sisler 1
*George Stone 1
Hal Newhouser 1
Hank Greenberg 1
Harry Heilmann 1
Jack Chesbro 1
*Jack Quinn 1
*Jacoby Ellsbury 1
*Jason Giambi 1
Joe Gordon 1
Johnny Bench 1
*Kevin Brown 1
*Larry Walker 1
*Lenny Dykstra 1
Lou Boudreau 1
*Luis Gonzalez 1
*Mike Piazza 1
*Mike Trout 1
Nolan Ryan 1
*Norm Cash 1
Phil Niekro 1
Ralph Kiner 1
Reggie Jackson 1
*Rico Petrocelli 1
Robin Roberts 1
Robin Yount 1
*Ron Guidry 1
Rube Waddell 1
*Sam McDowell 1
*Sammy Sosa 1
*Scott Rolen 1
*Snuffy Stirnweiss 1
*Terry Turner 1
*Tommy Holmes 1
Tony Perez 1
*Zack Greinke 1

 

2) Players with at least two seasons of 8 or more WAR, but no seasons of 9 or more WAR, since 1901:

*Dick Allen 3
Mel Ott 3
Al Simmons 2
*Chase Utley 2
*Graig Nettles 2
*Greg Maddux 2
Harmon Killebrew 2
*Jeff Bagwell 2
Joe Cronin 2
*John Olerud 2
Luke Appling 2
Roberto Clemente 2
*Roy Halladay 2
Willie Stargell 2

 

3) Players with at least three seasons of 7 or more WAR since 1901 who meet neither of the first two criteria:

Juan Marichal 6
Lefty Grove 6
*Andruw Jones 5
Al Kaline 4
*Charlie Keller 4
*Chipper Jones 4
*Frank Thomas 4
Gaylord Perry 4
Goose Goslin 4
Harry Heilmann 4
*Noodles Hahn 4
*Todd Helton 4
*Bobby Grich 3
*CC Sabathia 3
Chuck Klein 3
Eddie Plank 3
Gary Carter 3
Jim Bunning 3
*Jimmy Wynn 3
*Johan Santana 3
Johnny Mize 3
*Pete Rose 3
Richie Asbhurn 3
*Rocky Colavito 3
Willie McCovey 3

 

That gives us 140 players, far short of the 208 MLB players in the Hall of Fame.  I’m ignoring players whose big years came before 1901, since I don’t trust WAR figures before then, particularly for pitchers, who earned huge WAR totals by pitching almost all of their teams’ innings.  My inclusion of active players, right up through Mike Trout, essentially rolls the Hall forward 20 years, so that should offset the loss of the 19th century guys.

Ideally, this hall would be of a similar size to the Hall of Fame , but I’m not going to add any more players for a few reasons.  First, reducing the criteria for eligibility feels contrary to the point of the Hall of Peak value.  We could include players with several six-win seasons, but then we’re looking at Eddie Murray-types who compiled huge numbers without ever playing at a transcendent level.  We could include players with one eight-win season, but then we run into some real flukes like Jimmy Sheckard and Magglio Ordonez.  I could start mincing WAR and including guys with two 7.5-win seasons, but WAR is already uncertain enough, with questionable fielding metrics and defense removed from pitchers’ records (because I’m using fangraphs).  Let’s steer clear of decimal points and accept a smaller Hall.

 

Of the 140 players in the Hall of Peak Value, 82 are in the Hall of Fame.  The other 58 seem to fall into one of three groups:

Active or otherwise-ineligible players

Adrian Beltre
Albert Pujols
Alex Rodriguez
Andruw Jones
CC Sabathia
Chase Utley
Chipper Jones
Frank Thomas
Greg Maddux
Jacoby Ellsbury
Jason Giambi
Joe Jackson
Johan Santana
Ken Griffey, Jr.
Mike Trout
Pedro Martinez
Pete Rose
Randy Johnson
Roy Halladay
Scott Rolen
Todd Helton
Zack Greinke

Jackson and Rose, of course, are a group of their own, the only two players on this list who are permanently ineligible.  Maddux, Thomas, Johnson, Pujols, Griffey, Martinez, Chipper Jones, and Halladay are all locks for the Hall of Fame someday, with CC Sabathia approaching that territory as well.  Rodriguez is clearly qualified, but will fight an uphill battle for obvious reasons.  Rolen (HoS Hall Rating 141), Andruw Jones (126), Beltre (123), Utley (120), Helton (120), and Santana (108) have all done enough from an objective standpoint, and some of them will get to Cooperstown someday, but none fits the traditional mold of a BBWAA inductee.  That leaves Giambi, who probably didn’t do enough and has skeletons of his own, Greinke, who’s still building credentials, Ellsbury, who could easily end up on the fluke list, and Trout, about whom I won’t embarrass myself with a prediction here.

Eligible players with reasonable Hall cases

Barry Bonds
Bobby Grich
Craig Biggio
Darrell Evans
Dick Allen
Graig Nettles
Jeff Bagwell
Jimmy Wynn
John Olerud
Kevin Brown
Larry Walker
Mike Piazza
Rocky Colavito
Roger Clemens
Sammy Sosa

Bonds and Clemens are two of the best players ever, but both will have to wait a while, while Sosa is more of a borderline case who will likely never make the Hall.  Bagwell, Biggio, and Piazza are on their way in.  Walker should be as well, once the writers start to feel more comfortable adjusting for park effects.  Wynn (Hall Rating 110), Grich (141), and Brown (137) are three of the more famous one-and-done guys and may get some love from a Veterans Committee someday.  Nettles (124) and Evans (106) are living in third base purgatory.  Dick Allen (115) is one of the game’s more underrated sluggers, and should probably be in the Hall of Fame, while John Olerud (101) is only on the borderline if you think the Hall of Fame should have 208 players in it.  Colavito (82) doesn’t have a particularly strong case, but after writing about him in the Hall of Could’ve Been, I don’t want to call him a fluke.

One- or two-year flukes

Al Rosen
Benny Kauff
Charlie Keller
Cy Falkenberg
Cy Seymour
Dave Davenport
Dwight Gooden
Fred Lynn
George Foster
George Stone
Jack Quinn
Lenny Dykstra
Luis Gonzalez
Noodles Hahn
Norm Cash
Rico Petrocelli
Ron Guidry
Sam McDowell
Snuffy Stirnweiss
Terry Turner
Tommy Holmes

If there’s a Hall of Famer on this list, it’s either Hahn, who pitched brilliantly for six years of an eight-year career, or Gooden, who was the best pitcher in the world for two years before succumbing to drugs, overuse, and injuries.  Rosen, Keller, Stirnweiss, and McDowell all sustained their excellence for a few years, but not long enough to be Hall of Famers.  Jack Quinn’s inclusion here is somewhat ironic, as he pitched until he was 50 and won 247 games, but was only truly excellent in the Federal League in 1914 (and baseball-reference disagrees).  Luis Gonzalez isn’t eligible yet, but I think it’s safe to call his 2001 a one-year fluke.  I’d never heard of Terry Turner, a shortstop whom fangraphs credits with 34 Fielding Runs Above Average for the 1906 Cleveland Naps, or Falkenberg, who, like Kauff, did his damage in the inferior Federal League.  There are three times as many Cys in the Hall of Peak Value as there are in the Hall of Fame.

 

A challenge for the readers: Of the 126 players in the Hall of Fame who aren’t in the Hall of Peak Value, who were the best players?  Were they great because they played solidly, but not spectacularly, for many years, or were they as dominant at their peaks as these players, but held back because fWAR doesn’t appreciate their contributions?

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38 Comments on "The Hall of Peak Value"

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Artie Z.
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Yogi Berra? Catchers seem underrepresented in this group. You have Bench, Piazza, and Carter and I think that is it. Yogi is close (7.1, 6.7, 6.5, 6.2). Campanella has an 8.5, a 7.5, and a 6.4. Cochrane has a 7.1, 6.3, and a 6.0. I-Rod has a 6.9, 6.7, and a 6.4. Fisk has a 7.7, 7.1, and 6.1. There may need to be an adjustment for catchers just because they play a position in which they get banged up.

I just can’t see any version of the Hall of Fame without Yogi.

Hartvig
Guest

Apparently great minds think alike!

Hartvig
Guest

Among pitchers I’d probably go with Warren Spahn, at least off the top of my head.

Position players is harder- Luke Appling is one name that springs to mind. Or maybe a catcher like Mickey Cochrane or Yogi Berra or Roy Campanella. Brooks Robinson perhaps. In the outfield Billy Williams & Sam Crawford are possibilities.

Unless I’m missing someone, I’m going with Yogi among position players.

Ed
Guest

Position player with the most WAR who’s not on any of the lists is Rod Carew with 76.6. Carew would make it using BR WAR as he has a 9.5 season, plus two others about 7.0. Fangraphs shows Carew with a peak of 8.7, followed by 7.3 and 6.8. So under Fangraph’s, Carew just misses Bryan’s first and third criteria.

Ed
Guest
In comparing Carews’ B-R WAR and his Fangraphs WAR, I noticed something odd. I’m hoping someone can shed some light on this. Apparently, Fangraphs only incorporates baserunning data (going from 1st to 3rd on a single for example) into their WAR beginning in 2002. For example, if you look at Rod Carews’ page you’ll see that his UBR (Ultimate Baserunning) column under the Advanced table is empty. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1001942&position=1B/2B I checked out a couple of other players (Grich, DiMaggio) and they’re also missing UBR data. Now f you look at Sammy Sosa, for example, you’ll see that his UBR data begins… Read more »
Adam Darowski
Guest

For historical comparisons, I can’t see a case to use anything but B-R’s WAR.

Adam Darowski
Guest
This is an interesting idea, Bryan. I took a different approach. I grabbed my Hall of Stats spreadsheet (freely downloadable now, btw) and sorted eligible players by the peak component (adjWAA). Of the top 208, here are the players who are not in the Hall of Fame. Barry Bonds 159.6 Roger Clemens 136.4 Curt Schilling 77.5 Jeff Bagwell 78.6 Larry Walker 70.6 Mike Piazza 68.3 Alan Trammell 68 Pete Rose 77.2 Bobby Grich 68.6 Lou Whitaker 72.8 Kevin Brown 65.4 Edgar Martinez 65.4 Bill Dahlen 75.5 Shoeless Joe Jackson 61.5 Rick Reuschel 68.2 Kenny Lofton 66.5 David Cone 62.4 Jack… Read more »
Brooklyn Mick
Guest

Still don’t know how I feel about Tony Gwynn not being on any of the above lists. Career BA of .338, OBP .388, 8 batting titles, pretty good fielder, stole a lot of bases, 132 OPS+, etc.

Sure, the OBP isn’t comparatively much higher than his BA. He didn’t walk much, but he hardly ever struck out — 790 BB’s/434 SO’s.

Also, I was surprised to see his career BAbip is only 3 points higher than his career BA — .341/.338

So, is WAR unkind to Tony Gwynn?

RJ
Guest
I think missing a lot of games has something to do with it. Gwynn only played more than 135 games once after his age 30 season, despite playing until 41. His unspectacular defence seems to hurt him as well. In fact his dWar and oWAR always seems to match up really badly in individual seasons. His 2nd, 3rd and 4th BEST years by oWAR are also his 3rd, 1st and 5th WORST years by dWAR (per b-ref). I’d say the combination of the above prevented him from racking up high seasonal WAR totals. (Gwynn’s best three years are 8.7, 6.4… Read more »
Doug
Guest

Re: Brooklyn Mick @8

Is WAR unfair to Tony Gwynn?

Interesting question. I thought of Lou Whitaker as a point of compariso since both were so consistent year in and year out. Looking at their WAR scores, aside from Gwynn’s one 8 WAR season, their scores look pretty much like the same player. Yet, Whitaker manages to out-WAR Gwynn by 5+ points. This despite the 8-WAR season, despite having 20+ point edges in OBP and SLG, a huge edge in BA, and despite playing in a pitcher-friendly park vs. Whitaker’s hitter-friendly home. Seems a lot to be explained just by position adjustment.

Adam Darowski
Guest
As Marky Mark may have said once or twice, let’s break it down… Let’s get it out there—WAR says that Gwynn is TWICE the hitter that Whitaker was. That actually surprises me a bit. Gwynn’s OBP was a whopping 25 points better than Gwynn despite the batting average difference. Meanwhile, Whitaker’s ISO is 30 points higher than Gwynn’s. Whitaker also played in a offensive-depressed era. To be honest, I would have thought they would have been closer. But Whitaker’s at 209 runs and Gwynn’s at 403. Both could run, with Gwynn at +23 runs and Whitaker at +32. Defensively, Gwynn… Read more »
Doug
Guest

Thanks for the breakdown, Adam.

Somehow, though, I may prefer to have Gwynn on my team rather than Whitaker. That almost 200 run offensive advantage is hard to pass up, no matter how good a second baseman Whitaker may be.

Nevertheless, an interesting debate when you have two players similar in WAR (and also similar in how it was compiled – really good year after year but seldom or never spectacular), yet, when you break it down, they really compiled that WAR in completely different ways.

Ed
Guest

Adam: “Second base is obviously a lot more important than second base.”

I may stay up all night trying to figure that one out. 🙂

Adam Darowski
Guest

Shit, I’m going to go drink just to have that as an excuse.

Ed
Guest

Well I didn’t want to be too hard on me. I mean he wasn’t too far off. Gwynn’s OPS

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gwynnch01.shtml

is actually 48 points higher than Gwynn’s OPS:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gwynnto02.shtml

🙂

Ed
Guest

“too hard on him”! Now it’s rubbed off on me!!!

bstar
Guest

Haha! Ed, Adams’s statement was about Gwynn’s OBP, not his OPS. 🙂

Ed
Guest

Bstar – Yeah whatever curse Adam was operating under has obviously rubbed off on me!

Brooklyn Mick
Guest

Thanks for the feedback Adam and Doug. After reading, I decided to compare Whitaker and Barry Larkin because they were both middle infielders who had power, speed, and excellent defense. And why not also look at Alan Trammell for the obvious reasons.

Larkin: 67.1 WAR, 42.4 WAA, 200 Rbat, 13.8 dWAR, 116 OPS+
Whitaker: 71.4 WAR, 42.8 WAA, 209 Rbat, 15.4 dWAR, 117 OPS+
Trammell: 67.1 WAR, 40.4 WAA, 132 Rbat, 22.0 dWAR, 110 OPS+

Doug
Editor

FWIW, you can add:

Sandberg: 64.9 WAR, 38.4 WAA, 192 Rbat, 12.8 dWAR, 114 OPS+
Ozzie: 73.0 WAR, 42.0 WAA, -117 Rbat, 43.4 dWAR, 87 OPS+

If there has to be only one HoF second basemean from this generation, it would seem the BBWAA picked the wrong one.

But Larkin over Trammell seems like the right call for the “offensive” SS, with Ozzie in as the “defensive SS”.

I guess that leaves Ripken as the “SS who hits like (and becomes) a 3rd baseman”, creating the mold for A-Rod.

Brooklyn Mick
Guest
Agree Larkin over Trammell by a slim margin, and definitely Whitaker over Sandberg. On another tangent, Bobby Grich is on Bryan’s list for having three 7+ WAR seasons. That aside, I bring him up because both he and Whitaker got less than 3% of the vote in their first years of HOF eligibility, which is a joke. Yet Robbie Alomar got in on his second year with 90% of the vote. Ozzie: 73.0 WAR, 42.0 WAA, -117 Rbat, 43.4 dWAR, 87 OPS+ Whitaker: 71.4 WAR, 42.8 WAA, 209 Rbat, 15.4 dWAR, 117 OPS+ Grich: 67.3 WAR, 43.6 WAA, 256 Rbat,… Read more »
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