Circle of Greats 1971 Balloting Part 2

This post is for voting and discussion in the 119th round of balloting for the Circle of Greats (COG).  This is the second of two rounds adding to the list of candidates eligible to receive your votes those players born in 1971. Rules and lists are after the jump.

The new group of 1971-born players, in order to join the eligible list, must, as usual, have played at least 10 seasons in the major leagues or generated at least 20 Wins Above Replacement (“WAR”, as calculated by baseball-reference.com, and for this purpose meaning 20 total WAR for everyday players and 20 pitching WAR for pitchers). This new group of 1971-born candidates, who played for 6 or more franchises, joins the eligible holdovers from previous rounds to comprise the full list of players eligible to appear on your ballots. The first group of 1971-born candidates, who played for fewer than 6 franchises, were eligible to receive your votes in the previous round of balloting.

Each submitted ballot, if it is to be counted, must include three and only three eligible players.  As always, the one player who appears on the most ballots cast in the round is inducted into the Circle of Greats.  Players who fail to win induction but appear on half or more of the ballots that are cast win four added future rounds of ballot eligibility.  Players who appear on 25% or more of the ballots cast, but less than 50%, earn two added future rounds of ballot eligibility.  Any other player in the top 9 (including ties) in ballot appearances, or who appears on at least 10% of the ballots, wins one additional round of ballot eligibility.

All voting for this round closes at 11:59 PM EDT Sunday, January 31st, while changes to previously cast ballots are allowed until 11:59 PM EDT Friday, January 29th.

If you’d like to follow the vote tally, and/or check to make sure I’ve recorded your vote correctly, you can see my ballot-counting spreadsheet for this round here: COG 1971 Part 2 Vote Tally. I’ll be updating the spreadsheet periodically with the latest votes. Initially, there is a row in the spreadsheet for every voter who has cast a ballot in any of the past rounds, but new voters are entirely welcome — new voters will be added to the spreadsheet as their ballots are submitted.  Also initially, there is a column for each of the holdover candidates; additional player columns from the new born-in-1971 group will be added to the spreadsheet as votes are cast for them.

Choose your three players from the lists below of eligible players.  The fourteen current holdovers are listed in order of the number of future rounds (including this one) through which they are assured eligibility, and alphabetically when the future eligibility number is the same.  The 1971 birth-year players are listed below in order of the number of seasons each played in the majors, and alphabetically among players with the same number of seasons played.

Holdovers:
Kevin Brown (eligibility guaranteed for 4 rounds)
Rube Waddell (eligibility guaranteed for 4 rounds)
Hoyt Wilhelm (eligibility guaranteed for 4 rounds)
Goose Goslin (eligibility guaranteed for 3 rounds)
Dick Allen (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Graig Nettles (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Richie Ashburn (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Bill Dahlen (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Andre Dawson (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Wes Ferrell (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Jorge Posada (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Rick Reuschel (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Luis Tiant (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Bobby Wallace (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)

Everyday Players (born in 1971, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR, six or more franchises played for):
Ivan Rodriguez
Henry Blanco
Chris Gomez
Gregg Zaun
Wil Cordero
Carl Everett
Raul Mondesi
Jeffrey Hammonds
Charles Johnson
Matt Lawton
Phil Nevin
Michael Tucker
Manny Alexander
Midre Cummings
Sal Fasano
Todd Greene
Brian Hunter
Chris Widger

Pitchers (born in 1971, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR, six or more franchises played for):
Miguel Batista
Ron Mahay
Elmer Dessens
Esteban Loaiza
Alberto Reyes
Joe Borowski
James Baldwin
Todd Van Poppel

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Mike
Mike
4 years ago

Rube Waddell
Hoyt Wilhelm
Ivan Rodriguez

Jeff Harris
Jeff Harris
4 years ago

Brown, Allen, Wilhelm

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
4 years ago

Can someone explain why Todd Van Poppel kept getting chance after chance after chance?

1st Round draft pick (14th). So, sure, great talent.
Started off with 24 dominating innings at low-A ball.

Then… at no point did he demonstrate an effective control of the strike zone (except for one year as a reliever, in his 12th professional season).

Was the expectation that he was the next Nolan Ryan, and would figure it out eventually?

David P
David P
4 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Voomo – Van Poppel was considered to have the talent to go #1 overall in the draft but he discouraged teams from taking him by saying he was going to college (luck for the Braves who used the pick on some guy named Chipper). The As finally gambled and took him at #14. For reasons I don’t understand, he was signed to a major league contract rather than a minor league one which is one of the reasons he was rushed to the majors. From there, I assume that teams kept giving him chances because of his youth and overall… Read more »

Hartvig
Hartvig
4 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

I do recall Van Poppel being hyped as a “can’t miss, ace of the staff” prospect, perhaps not quite at the Mark Prior/Stephen Strausberg level but not far from that either. And it is entirely possible that the drama & publicity surrounding that draft might have played into it as well. David P is right in that while I’m not absolutely positive that Van Poppel would have gone over Jones (who was considered a can’t miss prospect himself) there was a very good chance of that happening (and maybe it was even more likely than my memory says it was).… Read more »

bstar
bstar
4 years ago
Reply to  Hartvig

Even after Van Poppel came out and said he was going to college, the Braves were still really on the fence about whether or not take him or Chipper.

To hear Bobby Cox tell it, it all came down to their respective interviews with Atlanta. Chipper impressed Cox with his confidence and eye contact while Van Poppel did the opposite. The rest as they say is history.

David P
David P
4 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Did a bit of reading about Van Poppel and the draft and this is what I found: 1) Van Poppel was definitely the consensus top pick in the draft. 2) Both Chipper Jones and Tony Clark (the #2 pick) had also signed college letters of intent. The difference is that Van Poppel was insistent that he was going to college and since he was a straight A student in high school, teams tended to believe him. 3) The A’s had 4 first round picks that year which is one of the reasons they were able to gamble on Van Poppel.… Read more »

brent
brent
4 years ago
Reply to  David P

I always kind of felt that the A’s disdain for High School pitchers kind of started with the Van Poppel debacle. Not sure if I read that somewhere or not (Moneyball?), but it does make some sense timeline wise.

David P
David P
4 years ago
Reply to  David P

Looking at the A´s first round draft picks post-Van Poppel, seems like they have a disdain for HS players period. Since Van Poppel, they’ve drafted 18 pitchers in the first round and only Mike Rossiter (taken the year after Van Poppel) and Jeremey Bonderman were HS draftees. BTW, anyone know the backstory on Ariel Prieto? He was a Cuban escapee so what was he doing in the draft??? Meanwhile, from 1991-2011, they took 21 position players in the first round and only Ben Grieve, Eric Chavez, Nathan Haynes came via HS. Starting in 2012, they reversed course, with all three… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
4 years ago

Joe Borowski is one of only two pitchers with more than 40 saves with a negative WAR:

-0.4 / 45 .. Borowski
-0.4 / 41 .. Danny Graves
0.2 / 40 … F. Cordero
0.2 / 41 … B. Boxberger (2015)
0.3 / 43 … Mitch Williams (yes, in 1993)
0.3 / 41 … Brian Wilson
0.4 / 46 … Lee Smith
0.4 ./ 48 … Brian Fuentes

CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
4 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Even without looking it up I know that’s from the 2007 Indians. That was an odd year. The Tribe slightly outplayed their pythagorean – IMO, it was mostly due to their bullpen. Borowski was the “proven closer.” Betancourt was the real fireman, the guy doing the grunt work. They were #1 and #2 respectively in number of games entered with a high leverage index. Even for a closer, Borowski had a super high average leverage index – he led the league with a 2.317. He had some terrible blowups, but in general he was adequate, and he managed a 1.2… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
4 years ago

At the end of April, Borowski has 9 saves and an era of 9.

CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
4 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Yeah, his worst game of the season came in April against the Yankees. It wasn’t a save situation because we were up by 4 when he entered the game in the 9th. He then got two quick outs, then gave up 6 runs on 5 hits and a walk. http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA200704190.shtml With the Indians still up 6-5, Borowski threw a wild pitch to put runners on 2nd and 3rd. A-Rod was up, and he had a 1.416 OPS coming into the game. Instead of walking A-Rod to load the bases and pitch to Giambi, Wedge chose to pitch to A-Rod. Walk-off… Read more »

Andy
Andy
4 years ago

Ivan Rodriguez, Rube Waddell, Bill Dahlen

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
4 years ago

Ivan Rodriguez is 1st in Games at Catcher (200 more than Fisk) 1st in Putouts at Catcher 1st in Total Zone Runs at Catcher (no close 2nd) Led the league in CS percentage NINE times. Entered the league as the youngest player. And led the 2003 Marlins to a title. And he could hit. _________________ Something about his (very likely) steroid use bothers me more than with other players. In general I’ve given most everyone a pass, seeing it as more of a cultural problem, thus, it being unfair to lay on individual players. For some reason all those Rangers… Read more »

e pluribus munu
e pluribus munu
4 years ago

Here are the usual figures I’ve been posting for candidate WAR breakdowns, assuming that Pudge is the only sure CoG candidate this round: Pitchers P(Tot)-WAR…Peak5…Top5…WAR/9IP…WAR/Yr…ERA+…Career length 68.5 (68.3)……37.0…37.0……0.189……4.0 (17)……127……1.24……Brown 48.8 (61.8)……29.9…36.0……0.168……4.9 (10)……116……1.00……Ferrell 68.2 (70.1)……31.0…32.8……0.173……4.0 (17)……114……1.35……Reuschel 66.1 (66.7)……28.7…34.7……0.171……3.9 (17)……114……1.33……Tiant 61.0 (58.5)……43.9…43.9……0.185……5.9 (10)……135……1.13……Waddell 50.1 (47.3)……16.1…21.6……0.184……2.6 (19)……147……N/A…….Wilhelm Position Players WAR……Pk5……Top5……WAR/G…WAR/Yr……OPS+…Career length 58.7………31.5……36.7……0.034……4.2 (14)……156………1.0……Allen 63.6………31.6……32.7……0.029……4.2 (15)……111………1.3……Ashburn 75.2………22.6……29.8……0.031……4.0 (19)……110………1.4……Dahlen 64.4………32.4……33.7……0.025……3.4 (19)……119………1.5……Dawson 66.1………32.5……32.8……0.029……4.1 (16)……128………1.3……Goslin 68.0………28.7……32.2……0.025……3.4 (20)……110………1.4……Nettles 42.7………23.1……24.7……0.023……2.8 (15)……121………1.0……Posada 68.4………30.2……30.4……0.027……3.4 (20)……106………1.5……Rodriguez 70.2………28.6……31.3……0.029……4.2 (17)……105………1.3……Wallace Those who advocate for Ferrell will note that if Ferrell’s exceptional batting is included, his peak totals are 35.8 for best five-year stretch and 43.4 for best five years, his WAR per IP becomes… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
4 years ago

I was curious about where Bill James ranked the guys on the holdover list in the NBJHBA which goes through the 2000 season. Pitchers: Wilhelm 27, Ferrell 40, Tiant 52, Waddell 53, Brown 73, Reuschel 81. The only eligible non COG pitchers ranked above Wilhelm are 3-Finger and Dizzy. Plank, Vance, and Blyleven are the only COG members with full careers ranked below him at 34, 35, and 39. K. Brown, incidentally, probably would not have moved up much. He was at 170-114 in 2000 and had only one qualifying season left in the tank, finishing at 211-144. At 1B… Read more »

Doug
Doug
4 years ago

Thanks for this, nsb.

Two things I’ve taken from it, based on James’ assessment:
– Wilhelm would seem to be the only holdover “crying out” for induction
– The number of non-COGers that James ranks ahead of our holdovers (though, personally, I think he has Nettles and, especially, Dawson too low) indicates it wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world to have a final redemption round

So, I will post the Redemption round post on Monday.

David Horwich
David Horwich
4 years ago

Raines is in the CoG!

no statistician but
no statistician but
4 years ago
Reply to  David Horwich

That COG list is hard to read. Sorry. But the correction doesn’t detract from but reinforces the point.

Hartvig
Hartvig
4 years ago

A few things to keep in mind about James’s rankings: -he admits that he tends to favor offense over defense (and it’s not unreasonable for him to do so simply because of the accuracy of the measurements but it’s at least something to keep in mind & might help explain someone like Nettles. It would certainly explain why he has more 1st baseman than shortstops in his top 110 and doesn’t include Ozzie Smith among them) – there was a subjective component to his rankings- which even tho he claimed not to factor in injuries would certainly appear to be… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
4 years ago
Reply to  Hartvig

Hartvig:

We all “favor” things in our evaluations. Those who claim that WAR, WAA, etc. eliminate such tendencies “favor” the biasses built into advanced metrics, even though they are hidden deep in the statistical formulas. Some things can’t be formulated. Human beings wouldn’t be either relevant or necessary if they could. Robots on the field, robots in the stands eating robotic hot dogs and crackerjacks and using laptops to predict accurately the outcome of the next pitch before the windup—reductio ad absurdum is the phrase that come to mind.

Hartvig
Hartvig
4 years ago

I was in no way trying to impugn the usefulness of your excellent post or imply that Bill James’s opinions and ideas are not worth taking into account. I do it myself, just as I freely admit to having my own biases and things I take into consideration when I rank players. And I won’t try to pretend that since there are so very many variables to take into account that I’m always consistent in how I factor them in. I also admit that WAR, et.al. has some subjectivity built in, most obviously on the fielding side of the equation.… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
4 years ago

Hartvig:

I wasn’t trying to beat on you, just taking off on the idea of supposed impartiality, morphing into my usual whack at advanced metrics as the Philosopher’s Stone-Holy Grail.

There are lots of quibbles I have with James’s rankings, too, but you can’t not like his overall approach.

Paul E
Paul E
4 years ago

NSB,
Yeah, he ripped Allen for being, basically, a juvenile delinquent through age 35. However, if at that time (2000), he had merely followed his three principal statistical foundations of the book (Win Shares/162G, Top 5 Consecutive, Any Best 3), Allen would have finished somewhere after Gehrig and Foxx, but probably ahead of McGwire, Bagwell, McCovey,and all his others ranked 3-14. Guys like Greenberg and Mize missed a lot of time due to WWII, but Allen, with all his injuries, is fairly similar to Mize.

Hartvig
Hartvig
4 years ago
Reply to  Paul E

I was going to dispute your conclusions but in looking at my copy of BJNHBA you may well be right. I thought he might come up short on career win shares (the 4th corner of his pentagon) but that does not appear to be the case. There’s little doubt that McGwire, Bagwell & Thomas were given a bump based on what James thought the future might hold for them, Mize & Greenberg were given credit for the war and Mattingly for the “what if” factor. Certainly food for thought. Surprisingly both JAWS (17th) and the Hall of Stats (19th) have… Read more »

brp
brp
4 years ago

Vote:
Pudge Rodriguez
Ashburn
Dawson

bstar
bstar
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug

#9 Carl Everett question: Barry Bonds did it twice before Everett, in both 1990 (33 HR/114 RBI/.301, 52 SB) and 1992 (34/103/.311, 39 SB).

bstar
bstar
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug

#12 Raul Mondesi question: Troy Glaus played for the Angels and D-Backs before finishing his career in Atlanta. I suppose 38 career WAR qualifies Glaus as an “A-lister”.

Glaus made the worst attempt at playing first base that I have ever seen. He was just dreadful at balls in the dirt. <>

Scary Tuna
Scary Tuna
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug

#7 Elmer Dessens question: Elmer Riddle.

CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug

25. Looks like it’s Ernie Lombardi, with 5 straight such seasons from 1940-1944.

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug

10. Wil Cordero – I know it’s not the answer you’re looking for because we can’t be precise about positions, but Honus Wagner pulled off 100 G at SS, 1B, and OF (though we can’t be sure about position(s) in the OF).

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
4 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

Argh! Now that I scroll down, I see that others have already tackled this one and guessed the same as I did!

Doug
Doug
4 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

Actually, the pre-1914 outfield positions are denoted in the Fielding section of B-R player pages, shown on the far right and denoted as n-n-n for games in left, center and right.

no statistician but
no statistician but
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug

The answer to #1 is probably the grim tale of Willard Hershberger, who committed suicide late in the 1940 season. He caught for the Reds, got despondent after a late season loss, and slit his wrists.

David Horwich
David Horwich
4 years ago

Hershberger only played in 48 games in 1940 before his demise.

Johnny Kling caught 117 games for the 1908 Cubs, then sat out the next season.

no statistician but
no statistician but
4 years ago
Reply to  David Horwich

Whoops. Misread Hershberger’s PA column for the G column. Guess you’re clinging to the right answer. Considering the fact that the Cubs won pennants in 1906, -07, -08—and 1910 when Kling returned, maybe he’s the one who cost the team a five pennant streak. His OPS+ was 119 and 110 on either side of the gap, while the two catchers who donned the tools in his absence had OPS+ in the low seventies. Of course, the Pirates won 110 games in 1909, but the Cubs won 104, and a three-game difference down and up would have them tied. Cling behind… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
4 years ago
Reply to  David Horwich

Jarrod Saltalamacchia caught 119 games for the 2013 WS champion Red Sox and caught only for Miami in 2014.

Doug
Doug
4 years ago

Saltalamachhia came after Rodriguez.

Am looking for a catcher before I-Rod who, like him, played the next season but not for the team he won the World Series with.

David Horwich
David Horwich
4 years ago

Well, Johnny Kling is a correct answer to the question as written, i.e:

“…the only player to catch 100 games for a World Series champion and not play with that team the next season?”

As he caught more than 100 games with the 1908 Cubs, and didn’t play with anyone in 1909.

Now, if the question was meant to be, “…the only player to catch 100 games for a World Series champion and play for a different team or teams the next season?”, well, that’s a slightly different question. The answer to which I don’t yet know…

CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
4 years ago

This was a really tough one. I thought I had it with an early guess, Jim Leyritz, but he didn’t play 100 games with the 1996 Yankees. I basically just had to brute force search, and I finally got it – it’s Dave Duncan in 1972 with the Athletics. He played 121 games for the world champion A’s, then got traded with George Hendrick to the Tribe for Ray Fosse and Jack Heidemann.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug

#4: Buck Martinez and Jeff Reed

Scary Tuna
Scary Tuna
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug

6. Ron Mahay question: Pascual Perez. After going 1-13 in 1985, the Braves released him the next spring, and he missed the 1986 season. He signed a minor league contract with the Expos in 1987, got called up in August and went 7-0 in ten starts.

David P
David P
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Perez is the only pitcher with two seasons of 75 or fewer innings, 2+ WAR, all starts. Other than Perez’ two seasons, the feat has only been accomplished 8 other times.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug

#19: Sherman Lollar

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug

The emergence of Yogi Berra made Lollar expendable. Lollar was traded to the Browns after the 1948 season for 21 game loser Fred Sanford who was held in high regard by the Yankees. He is one of three 20 games losers the Yankees traded for. He never lived up his potential and was gone after a few years while Lollar eventually ended up on the White Sox and was their regular catcher for many years. One of Sanford’s “accomplishments” was to form a battery with a teammate born on the same date, Ralph Houk.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
4 years ago

Looks like missed one, it was Byrd.

David Horwich
David Horwich
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug

#23 The 1996 Bal-Cle LDS, a 4-game series, featured 9 pinch-running appearances: 3 – Manny Alexander (scored twice) 3 – Mike Devereaux 1 – Pete Incaviglia (scored) 1 – Jeff Kent (scored) 1 – Casey Candaele The players replaced were B.J. Surhoff (3 times), Bobby Bonilla (2 times), Kevin Seitzer (2 times), Eddie Murray (1), and Chris Hoiles (1). Anyway, the answer to the question would appear to be Devereaux, assuming the question to be “who also had (at least) 2 PR appearances”, rather than “who also had 2 run-scoring PR appearances”, as there’s no one who matches the latter… Read more »

Doug
Doug
4 years ago
Reply to  David Horwich

The question is as stated. Looking for the other player (there is one) with multiple PR games in the same LDS, including at least two with a run scored.

When I say “the same LDS”, I don’t mean the same LDS as the one Alexander was in. The meaning is that the multiple games occurred in one LDS series, not spread over multiple LDS series.

David Horwich
David Horwich
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Hmm. In the ’96 Dodgers-Braves LDS there was only 1 PR used the entire series, so that’s out. Cardinals-Padres, 2 PR total, 1 per team.

In the ’96 Yankees-Rangers LDS, Andy Fox and Damon Buford were each used as PR twice, but neither scored. Joe Girardi was used as a PR once, and scored.

What am I missing now?

CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Oh okay, I get it. “The same LDS” doesn’t have anything to do with 1996, it just means both PR appearances were in the same series. In that case, it looks like the answer is Pat Kelly for the Yankees in the 1995 ALDS. He scored in Game 1 and in the famous “Griffey’s Winning Run” Game 5.

Doug
Doug
4 years ago

That’s it. Sorry it wasn’t clear.

BTW, the same meaning applies to the preceding question #22.

David Horwich
David Horwich
4 years ago

Ah, at last I see. “In a single LDS” is what was meant. Got it.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug

#15: Ed Brinkman. Pre-expansion players are Bobby Avila and Frank Huelsman.

brent
brent
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug

#8 Estaban Loaiza — the answer is Pedro Astacio, 4.67 ERA in 2196.20 innings with a career record of 129 wins and 124 losses. In his 5 years pitching for the Rockies, he had a 5.43 ERA, yet his ERA+ was 102.

brent
brent
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug

#20, Sal Fasano, The answer is Mark Parent who hit 0 triples in 1428 plate appearances from 1986 to 1998.

brent
brent
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug

#17 Joe Borowski is Albert Pujols’ favorite closer Brad Lidge, with a 5.28 ERA and 32 saves in 2006 for the Astros and a 7.21 ERA (!!!!) and 31 saves for the Phillies in 2009. Ok. Last one for today.

bells
bells
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug

#11 is Bull Durham.

Doug
Doug
4 years ago
Reply to  bells

Durham did well to go undefeated over those three seasons, allowing 19 runs in 18 IP. He wasn’t a kid like “Nuke” LaLoosh in the move Bull Durham, but he evidently got nuked when he went to the hill (probably when his team was also getting nuked).

brent
brent
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug

#13 is Yaz in 1976 with 146 hits, 100 of which were singles, 21 of which were Home runs and 102 RBIs.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug

#16: Lyn Lary of CLE in 1938. 36 doubles, 88 walks, 23 SB and 94 R.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug

#18 Charles Johnson question: Jason LaRue

Brent
Brent
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug

#21 is Jason Bere (71-65, 5.14, 1111 IP) and Roy Mahaffey (67-49, 5.01, 1056 innings)

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug

#22: Allan Lewis and Earl McNeely.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug

#24: Hoyt Wilhelm, 1953 and 1970

David Horwich
David Horwich
4 years ago

Doug, minor erratum: just below the holdover list, the text reads:

“Everyday Players (born in 1971, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR, six or fewer franchises played for):”

where it should be “6 or more” rather than “6 or fewer”.

CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
4 years ago

10. My first guess was going to be Jose Hernandez, but he didn’t have quite enough games at 1B. Then I realized pretty quickly who it had to be – none other than the Flying Dutchman himself, Honus Wagner.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
4 years ago

#10 is Red Kress.

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
4 years ago

I think I-Rod takes it in a walk this round, but I’m REALLY hoping my other two guys make it into the COG in one of the next two rounds (though I wouldn’t be sad about Luis Tiant, either).

Ivan Rodriguez
Kevin Brown
Wes Ferrell

oneblankspace
oneblankspace
4 years ago

Charles Johnson went west in the Piazza trade. In fact, he held up the trade, because he was negotiating a contract that would take into account that California has state income tax and Florida does not.

Howmanyofme.com estimates There are 16,944 people in the U.S. named Charles Johnson.

MJ
MJ
4 years ago

Bill Dahlen, Bobby Wallace, Rick Reuschel

Paul E
Paul E
4 years ago

Allen, Waddell, Wilhelm

Joseph
Joseph
4 years ago

People seem to love Ivan Rodriguez and rightfully so. Compare him to Graig Nettles: OPS+: IRod: 106; GN: 110 oWar: IRod: 53.9 GN: 52.3 dWar: IRod: 28.7 GN: 20.9 WAR: IRod: 68.4 GN: 68 HR: IRod: 311 GN: 390 BA: IRod: .296 GN: .248 OBP: IRod: .334 GN: .329 #1 WAR: IRod: NONE GN: TWICE Top 10 WAR: IRod: 5 GN: 6 Neg. WAR Seasons: IRod: 3 GN: 2 WAA: IRod: 33.1 GN: 32.8 Black Ink Batting: IRod: Zero GN: 4 Gray Ink: IRod 37 GN: 56 Okay–I see these two players as being pretty equally entitled to entry into… Read more »

e pluribus munu
e pluribus munu
4 years ago
Reply to  Joseph

I don’t see any reason to seek representation of any position in the CoG, except perhaps a reasonable balance of pitchers and position players, since the contributions of those two categories are significantly incommensurable. If all the greatest players had played shortstop, why should some be excluded to include outfielders who were not great? In my view, the CoG is not the same as an all-time all-star team. However, there is an argument that in the case of catchers, WAR under-represents the quality of their contributions in a way that holds for no other position. That is an entirely different… Read more »

Joseph
Joseph
4 years ago

IRod receives an Rpos of 141 and Nettles 41. Why do we accept that the positional adjustment doesn’t compensate?

Doug
Doug
4 years ago
Reply to  Joseph

Doesn’t compensate for what?

The idea behind Rpos is to adjust for positional scarcity, the premise being that major-league caliber catchers are harder to find than third basemen.

e pluribus munu
e pluribus munu
4 years ago
Reply to  Joseph

I think the argument is that in addition to replacement scarcity, the defensive contributions catchers make is not adequately captured by current WAR measures, and that the nature of the position exacts a physical toll that goes beyond that of any other position, essentially investing in positional assignment a certain portion of a player’s long-term productivity at an unmeasured cost. Catchers typically must shift to easier positions, first base or outfield, after a certain period of time, their longevity as catchers undermined by the strain of the position, which affects their mobility and speed overall as well. Thus, their defensive… Read more »

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
4 years ago
Reply to  Joseph

I think I would agree with epm’s assessment above. There are six 3B with more career WAR than the catcher with the most WAR. It seems comparing raw WAR is not necessarily the best way to go. But let’s see how Nettles and Rodriguez match up in their own position: Nettles WAR among 3B: 12th Top 7 WAR among 3B: 16th JAWS among 3B: 12th Hall of Stats rank among 3B: 10th Rodriguez WAR among C: 3rd Top 7 WAR among C: 4th JAWS among C: 3rd Hall of Stats rank among C: 4th So… you have one guy who’s… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
4 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

Rather than comparing Nettles to Rodriguez, I’m going to compare him to Ashburn. This comment was originally going to be a challenge. I’d summarize the weaknesses of the various holdovers and challenge all comers to defend their favorites. Doing my prep work, though, going down the list one by one, I moved from Nettles on to Ashburn, and the first thing I noticed was that Nettles, with 390 HRs, had a lower OPS+ (110) than Ashburn (111) with 29 HRs. Then I looked at fielding, which is where Nettles supposedly picks up his real value, at least in terms of… Read more »

David P
David P
4 years ago

NSB – Interesting comparison, here are some comments: 1) Nettles likely benefits from the fact that more voters remember his career than Ashburn`s. 2) For better or for worse, Nettles does have more career WAR than Ashburn and twice led the AL in WAR, something that Ashburn never did even though he played in a smaller league. 3) Ashburn is obviously hurt by his negative Rpos. I’ll admit that I really don’t understand enough about Rpos to understand how Ashburn’s can be negative while more recent CFers (Lofton for example) have a positive Rpos. 4) As for the Rfield compoenent… Read more »

mosc
mosc
4 years ago
Reply to  Joseph

Catcher > Third base due to career longevity given similar value but 1970s stars didn’t do steroids to keep them playing. Nettles.

Brendan Burke
4 years ago

Wilhelm, Dawson, I.Rodriguez

T-Bone
T-Bone
4 years ago

Reuschel, D. Allen, Waddell

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
4 years ago

Last year, Joey Gallo of the Rangers had a great first two weeks in the bigs. Then the strikeouts started piling up and he got sent back down (and was a September callup).

His last game before September, he had a rare batting combination of batting stats:
1 triple
3 RBI
4 Strikouts

Only once before has that happened.
By a Pitcher named Joe Krakauskas, in 1939.

Stephen
Stephen
4 years ago

Ashburn, Brown, Nettles

David Horwich
David Horwich
4 years ago

Nettles, Tiant, Rodriguez

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
4 years ago

Through 11 (David Horwich):

6 – Ivan Rodriguez
=====50% (6)
4 – Rube Waddell*, Hoyt Wilhelm*
3 – Dick Allen*, Kevin Brown*
=====25% (3)
2 – Richie Ashburn, Bill Dahlen, Andre Dawson, Graig Nettles*, Rick Reuschel
=====10% (2)
1 – Wes Ferrell, Luis Tiant, Bobby Wallace
0 – Goose Goslin*, Jorge Posada

Hartvig
Hartvig
4 years ago

Pudge, Nettles, Ferrell

I’m curious if Rodriguez’s lack of support is due to PEDS or just an early fluke or what.

Mike L
Mike L
4 years ago
Reply to  Hartvig

Hartvig, I haven’t had a chance to figure out what I want to do, but I’m not enthusiastic about voting for PEDS-users. So, I expect, when I vote, I’m going to take that into account. He will get sufficient support elsewhere to get in, and I imagine he will make the HOF as well.

bstar
bstar
4 years ago
Reply to  Hartvig

What else could it be if not PEDS? On numbers alone Pudge has a case for 2nd or 3rd-best catcher of all-time, or at least top-5. I suppose there could be some voters who feel his Rfield numbers are a bit inflated compared to catchers of yesteryear who have their fielding stats regressed so heavily because there’s less info available on them. Other than that, I don’t know what else it could be. I normally have a pretty good feel for how a player is going to do in HOF voting when he debuts, but I’m really not sure how… Read more »

mosc
mosc
4 years ago
Reply to  Hartvig

For me, it’s PED’s. Hard to say even with a correction his stats don’t count but Texas rangers from those years I feel like I can’t vote for any of em. Kevin Brown, Jose Canseco, Ivan Rodriguez, Juan Gonzalez, Kenny Rogers, Rafael Palmeiro, Julio Franco, all played on the Rangers ’93 or ’94. With all due respect to Will Clark, a lot of people on that team were juicing. There are other teams you could call out over time. The A’s, the Astros, the Yankees (though most of those guys produced roid numbers BEFORE they signed big money with the… Read more »

Gary Bateman
Gary Bateman
4 years ago

Goslin, Ashburn, Dahlen

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
4 years ago

Vote:

Wes Ferrell
Rube Waddell
Hoyt Wilhelm

koma
koma
4 years ago

Hoyt Wilhelm, Jorge Posada, Ivan Rodriguez

JEV
JEV
4 years ago

Goslin, Brown, Rodriguez

aweb
aweb
4 years ago

K. Brown
I. Rodriguez
A. Dawson

Kirk
Kirk
4 years ago

Hoyt Wilhelm, Rick Reuschel and Dick Allen

Bryan O'Connor
Editor
4 years ago

Most Wins Above Average, excluding negative seasonal totals:

K. Brown 43.3
Dahlen 41.2
Reuschel 40.6
Ferrell 40.1
Wallace 38.6
Tiant 37.5
Rodriguez 36.6
Waddell 35.9
Allen 35.8
Nettles 35.7
Dawson 35.4
Ashburn 33.9
Goslin 31.7
Burkett 30.9
Wilhelm 28.7
Posada 20.7

Brown, Rodriguez, Allen

mosc
mosc
4 years ago

Nettles, Ferrell, Dawson

Steve
Steve
4 years ago

Hoyt Wilhelm; Goose Goslin; Rube Waddell

dr-remulak
dr-remulak
4 years ago

Posada, Waddell, Nettles.

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
4 years ago

Update, through 22 ballots (dr-remulak’s): 11 – Ivan Rodriguez ===========50% (11) 8 – Hoyt Wilhelm* 7 – Rube Waddell* 6 – Kevin Brown* ===========25% (6) 5 – Dick Allen*, Graig Nettles* 4 – Andre Dawson, Wes Ferrell 3 – Richie Ashburn, Bill Dahlen, Goose Goslin*, Rick Reuschel ===========10% (3) 2 – Jorge Posada 1 – Luis Tiant, Bobby Wallace It looks like I-Rod is running away with it, but he’s only been named on 1 of the last 5 ballots, and the race is getting tighter than I think most of us expected. Interesting to see if he can hold… Read more »

Hartvig
Hartvig
4 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

At this point voting simply to give a player an extra rounds worth of eligibility would seem rather pointless since all 5 of the runners up at this point already have an additional round and there are only 2 elections remaining. I have no idea what we will do if we pick up this process again next year but I’d be amazed if anyone was thinking that far ahead. I understand if someone thinks they’re better qualified than Rodriguez or the most qualified of all the other candidates but just as strategic voting, then not so much.

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
4 years ago
Reply to  Hartvig

I’ve been operating under the assumption that we would just continue to follow the BBWAA. Depending on how many they elect next year, we will elect that number, including adding the 1972 birth year, with more “open” rounds to equalize the number with the BBWAA. Perhaps most aren’t thinking that far ahead. But if we keep having classes of 3-4 electees, even Kevin Brown’s rather substantial store of eligibility won’t get him through 1973. (I guess what I’m saying is this: I’m thinking that far ahead – even if no one else is.)

Hartvig
Hartvig
4 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

I guess that I hadn’t even given it a thought yet as to how that would work. Maybe it does make sense to consider it in how you vote. Certainly not out of the question we could see another 4 inductees next year, given that Bagwell, Raines & Hoffman were all less than 8% away from clearing the bar this year and Pudge and Manny are coming on board. And while I don’t see Lee Smith picking up anywheres near enough steam in his final year on the ballot, it’s not out of the question that one of the guys… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
4 years ago

Goslin, Ferrell, Wilhelm

brent
brent
4 years ago

Don’t think I voted yet. I-Rod, Goslin, Waddell

Luis Gomez
Luis Gomez
4 years ago

Ivan Rodriguez, Graig Nettles, Luis Tiant.

Hub Kid
Hub Kid
4 years ago

Ivan Rodriguez, Luis Tiant, Bill Dahlen

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
4 years ago

-Ivan Rodriguez
Back to tilting at windmills:
-Andre Dawson
-Luis Tiant

Dave Humbert
Dave Humbert
4 years ago

Dahlen, Wallace, Brown Unless Wallace gets more help he will become the first position player over 70 WAR not named Palmeiro to drop off our ballot. The timing would mean he will miss the supplemental redemption round and not have his shot at the final two “open” rounds of the COG, not having a chance until next year (if we do another redemption) at the earliest. I have presented his case and it has been re-posted a few times (most recently by EPM last round). His WAA of 38.6 places him 5th among our holdovers – the con argument is… Read more »

oneblankspace
oneblankspace
4 years ago

Voting for:

H Wilhelm
G Nettles
D/R Allen

Thought about throwing away a vote for somebody like Loaiza, but decided against it. This may be my first vote for Nettles.

e pluribus munu
e pluribus munu
4 years ago

Well, I helped bail out Wallace before and said I would not do it again, but in addition to Dave H’s repeated plea this time, I realize now, as noted on the redemption string, that Wallace is the highest ranking player in the Hall of Stats not in the CoG, just above Dahlen and substantially above anyone else on this list (Pudge not included). By my count, Wallace will still need a vote beyond mine to stay alive, but this is not the time for him to be dropped and I hope that vote comes in. Dahlen’s safe for this… Read more »

Bryan O'Connor
Editor
4 years ago

As to why WAR loves Reuschel so much, the awful defense behind him has a lot to do with it. http://www.highheatstats.com/2013/02/beyond-era-why-rick-reuschel-had-hall-of-fame-value/

e pluribus munu
e pluribus munu
4 years ago
Reply to  Bryan O'Connor

Bryan, That’s a great article! Thank you for pointing me to it – I guess it redeems my vote for Reuschel. But I wonder about the validity of the statistical judgment. For example, I checked Reuschel’s 1977 season and saw that the Cubbies’ fielding was, indeed, execrable overall (-45 Rtot; though far better than what Niekro had to deal with in Atlanta). However, the fielding issues in Chicago were concentrated in the outfield, and Reuschel was overwhelmingly a ground ball pitcher (with a slightly above-average balls-in-play percentage) – never more so than in 1977. Looking at your list of poor… Read more »

e pluribus munu
e pluribus munu
4 years ago

It occurred to me just as I sent off the comment above that Reuschel wasn’t necessarily that much of a ground-ball pitcher as a ground-out pitcher, since that’s all the stats tell us. Perhaps his high GO/AO ratio was a product of his OF not turning normally catchable balls into outs. I’m not sure how we could know.

David Horwich
David Horwich
4 years ago

Totals through 30 ballots (through epm’s ballot):

15 – Rodriguez
=============50% (15)
10 – Wilhelm
9 – Waddell
=============25% (8)
7 – Brown, Nettles
6 – Allen
5 – Dahlen, Dawson, Ferrell, Goslin
4 – Reuschel, Tiant
3 – Ashburn, Wallace
=============10% (3)
2 – Posada

opal611
opal611
4 years ago

For the 1971 Part 2 election, I’m voting for:
-Ivan Rodriguez
-Luis Tiant
-Rick Reuschel

Other top candidates I considered highly (and/or will consider in future rounds):
-Dawson
-Brown
-Goslin
-Ashburn
-Nettles
-Allen
-Waddell
-Wallace
-Dahlen

Jeff B
Jeff B
4 years ago

Ashburn, Dawson, Rodriguez

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
4 years ago

David Horwich just did a vote chart above, so I’m not going to do one. But I will say this: 1. Wallace slipped back below 10%, in spite of a couple of ballots pleading for him. He’ll need one more vote to be safe. 2. Wilhelm and Waddell will almost certainly pick up extra rounds of eligibility (Wilhelm will; Waddell will, unless we have five more voters after this comment and none of them name him). Kevin Brown or Graig Nettles would need another two votes each to do the same (or three votes, if we get to 37-40 ballots).… Read more »

Mike L
Mike L
4 years ago

Getting harder and harder, especially since I’m not voting for I-Rod for the obvious reason. I have voted for Wallace in the past, then changed my mind after noting not enough support from the writers in his early HOF votes. I’ll go with Dave Humbert on this one, and vote to keep him under consideration.
Wallace, Waddell, and Dahlen

Brendan Bingham
Brendan Bingham
4 years ago

Vote:
Ashburn, Allen, Brown

Shard
Shard
4 years ago

Ashburn-Allen-Rodriguez