The 2016 playoff matchups are set, kicking off in Toronto on Tuesday. As I did last season, I’d like to use my Playoff Runs model to predict the playoffs, but I need a little help from the readers here.
In brief, the Playoff Runs model assigns certain numbers of innings pitched, plate appearances, and defensive innings to every player on each playoff team based on a defined, standardized role, and credits players with their seasonal Runs Above Replacement times those expected innings/plate appearances.
One of the challenges with building this model is guessing which 250 players will make playoff rosters and how ten managers will deploy them. I recognize that I can’t expect to shoehorn 25 players on every team into roles like “Middle Reliever 3”, “Utility Infielder”, and “Pinch Runner” and assume that managers will behave accordingly, but with a certain level of integrity, I believe this system can make well-informed predictions.
Here’s where you come in. The chart below lists every playoff team’s roster as I’m guessing it will be composed. Please speak up in the comments if you know a player is injured, not likely to make the postseason roster, or likely to play a different role (rotation order matters). I may not update everything (I recognize the Cubs are more likely to put Miguel Montero on the roster, for example, than Trevor Cahill, but I can’t create a “Catcher3” position and try to assign runs across ten teams in a standardized way), but I’ll check in often before Tuesday night, integrate your inputs, and come back with a longer post explaining my predictions.
[table id=317 /]
Thanks for your help. We’ll chat again soon.