Circle of Greats 1972 Balloting Part 2

This post is for voting and discussion in the 123rd round of balloting for the Circle of Greats (COG).  This is the second of three rounds adding to the list of candidates eligible to receive your votes those players born in 1972. Rules and lists are after the jump.

The new group of 1972-born players, in order to join the eligible list, must, as usual, have played at least 10 seasons in the major leagues or generated at least 20 Wins Above Replacement (“WAR”, as calculated by baseball-reference.com, and for this purpose meaning 20 total WAR for everyday players and 20 pitching WAR for pitchers). This second group of 1972-born candidates, including those with H-M surnames, joins the eligible holdovers from previous rounds to comprise the full list of players eligible to appear on your ballots. The remaining 1972-born candidates, with N-Z surnames, will be eligible to receive your votes in the next round of balloting.

Each submitted ballot, if it is to be counted, must include three and only three eligible players. As always, the one player who appears on the most ballots cast in the round is inducted into the Circle of Greats. Players who fail to win induction but appear on half or more of the ballots that are cast win four added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Players who appear on 25% or more of the ballots cast, but less than 50%, earn two added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Any other player in the top 9 (including ties) in ballot appearances, or who appears on at least 10% of the ballots, wins one additional round of ballot eligibility.

All voting for this round closes at 11:59 PM EST Tuesday, February 7th, while changes to previously cast ballots are allowed until 11:59 PM EST Sunday, February 5th.

If you’d like to follow the vote tally, and/or check to make sure I’ve recorded your vote correctly, you can see my ballot-counting spreadsheet for this round here: COG 1972 Part 2 Vote Tally. I’ll be updating the spreadsheet periodically with the latest votes. Initially, there is a row in the spreadsheet for every voter who has cast a ballot in any of the past rounds, but new voters are entirely welcome — new voters will be added to the spreadsheet as their ballots are submitted. Also initially, there is a column for each of the holdover candidates; additional player columns from the new born-in-1972 group will be added to the spreadsheet as votes are cast for them.

Choose your three players from the lists below of eligible players. The nine current holdovers are listed in order of the number of future rounds (including this one) through which they are assured eligibility, and alphabetically when the future eligibility number is the same. The 1972 birth-year players are listed below in order of the number of seasons each played in the majors, and alphabetically among players with the same number of seasons played.

Holdovers:
Kevin Brown (eligibility guaranteed for 6 rounds)
Goose Goslin (eligibility guaranteed for 6 rounds)
Dave Winfield (eligibility guaranteed for 4 rounds)
Dick Allen (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Graig Nettles (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Luis Tiant (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Richie Ashburn (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Bill Dahlen (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Bobby Wallace (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)

Everyday Players (born in 1972, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR, H-M surname):
Chipper Jones
Raul Ibanez
Mike Lieberthal
Melvin Mora
Ramon Martinez
Paul Lo Duca

Pitchers (born in 1972, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR, H-M surname):
LaTroy Hawkins
Mike Hampton
Jason Isringhausen
Jose Lima
Dustin Hermanson
Steve Karsay
Steve Kline
Jimmy Haynes
Ramiro Mendoza

Leave a Reply

131 Comments on "Circle of Greats 1972 Balloting Part 2"

Notify of
avatar
Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
e pluribus munu
Guest

Here is a list of stats for candidates, including the ten holdovers and Chipper Jones, the only current 1972 candidate with a WAR exceeding 30.

Pitchers
P(Tot)-WAR…Peak5…Top5…WAR/9IP…WAR/Yr…ERA+…Career length
68.5 (68.3)……37.0…37.0……0.189……4.0 (17)……127……1.0……Brown
66.1 (66.7)……28.7…34.7……0.171……3.9 (17)……114……1.2……Tiant

Position Players
WAR……Pk5……Top5……WAR/G…WAR/Yr……OPS+…Career length
58.7………31.5……36.7……0.034……4.2 (14)……156………1.0……Allen
63.6………31.6……32.7……0.029……4.2 (15)……111………1.3……Ashburn
75.2………22.6……29.8……0.031……4.0 (19)……110………1.4……Dahlen
66.1………32.5……32.8……0.029……4.1 (16)……128………1.3……Goslin
85.0………33.0……35.5……0.034……4.7 (18)……141………1.4……Jones
68.0………28.7……32.2……0.025……3.4 (20)……110………1.4……Nettles
70.2………28.6……31.3……0.029……4.2 (17)……105………1.3……Wallace*
63.8………26.9……28.6……0.021……3.0 (21)……130………1.7……Winfield

*Wallace’s total WAR (incl. pitching) is 76.3.

Paul E
Guest

6) Stan Lopata
2) ……not Hank Sauer, whom I thought it HAD to be

Richard Chester
Guest

I think the answer to #2 is Hank Sauer. 281 HR age 30 and after, 7 HR before age 30. Ratio of 40.1.

Paul E
Guest

hah! I knew it had to be Sauer, went to his b-ref page, errantly added the rbi column, got 29 and saw he only hit 288 homers.
bill james wrote about him languishing in the minors because no one thought he would ever field well enough

Mike L
Guest

I’m struggling with whether Ramiro Mendoza cracks my top three….

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

Highest WAR since 1987, with fewer than 140 IP, and SO/9 less than 4:

2.9 … Ramiro Mendoza
2.7 … Chuck Crim
2.5 … Greg Hibbard
2.5 … Bill Swift
2.5 … Bob Welch

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

Oops.
At the top of that list is actually Shigetoshi Hasegawa, with a 3.2 in just 73 IP in 2003.

e pluribus munu
Guest

Mike, Let’s call it “The Mendoza Line.”

Mike L
Guest

It sings to me….

Jeff Harris
Guest

Chipper Jones, Brown, Goslin

Doug
Guest

Jones, Dahlen, Wallace

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

WAR Leaders, Number 1 Draft Picks:

117.7 . Alex Rod
85.0 … Larry Jones
83.3 … Griffey the Jr.
50.0 … Joe Mauer*
43.8 … Adrian Gon*
42.0 … D. Strawberry

38.5 … Harold Baines
34.3 … B.J. Surhoff
33.1 … Rick Monday
32.3 … Darin Erstad
31.9 … David Price*
31.7 … Andy Benes

28.5 … Mike Moore
28.1 … Josh Hamilton*
26.9 … Floyd Bannister
26.7 … Justin Upton*
26.2 … Tim Belcher
21.7 … Bob Horner

21.5 … Bryce Harper*
20.9 … Ben McDonald
18.8 … Pat Burrell
18.2 … Stephen Strasburg*
17.6 … Jeff Burroughs
16.7 … Jeff King

15.8 … Phil Nevin
13.0 … Kris Benson
11.5 … Shawon Dunston
10.1 … Carlos Correa*
9.4 …. Gerrit Cole*
9.4 …. Ron Blomberg
(I’ll stop there)

Paul E
Guest

joe mauer kind of slowed down a bit….

Mike L
Guest

Ron Bloomberg would stop anyone. He could hit–lifetime OPS+ of 140. He just couldn’t stay on the field.

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

Looking at the all-time leaders in Games (LaTroy Hawkins is 10th), I noticed that Francisco Rodriguez is 195 behind Mariano’s record for a right-handed Pitcher. And he’s only 34.)

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

Most Starts in a career, with also 350+ Games Finished:

361 .. Eck
133 .. Dave Guisti
98 …. LaTroy Hawkins
95 …. Jose Mesa
93 …. Stu Miller
89 …. Rick Aguilera
89 …. Dave Righetti
____________________

Fewest Saves in a career, with 350+ Games Finished:

84 …. Mike Stanton
102 .. Tom Burgmeier
125 .. John Hiller
126 .. Dave LaRoche
126 .. Bill Campbell
127 .. LaTroy Hawkins
132 .. Bob Stanley
133 .. Jim Brewer

opal611
Guest

For the 1972 Part 2 election, I’m voting for:
-Chipper Jones
-Dave Winfield
-Luis Tiant

Other top candidates I considered highly (and/or will consider in future rounds):
-Brown
-Goslin
-Ashburn
-Nettles
-Allen
-Wallace
-Dahlen

Thanks!

Dr. Doom
Guest

I’m re-looking at the holdovers. I want to try to think about players anew. I’ve got it narrowed down to four players. I’m looking at: Graig Nettles, Dave Winfield, Luis Tiant, and Dick Allen. Whom should I select, given only one spot? Convince me. I’m going into this round as open-minded as I can, so help me out.

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest
What made each of them “great”? Winfield…. Extreme longevity. …Though it can be argued that he was merely charismatically above average, and that he had only three “great” seasons (’79, ’84, ’88), even disregarding his curiously poor defensive stats. Allen…. Absolute beast of a hitter. Greatness unquestioned there. … Though noone argues that his defense was very bad. And only 7315 PA. The only COG inductee with fewer is Home Run Baker (excluding Catchers, WWII, and partial-segregation players). And Baker’s career was short-circuited by the death of his wife. The great Larry Walker and his 8030 is really our Great… Read more »
Doug
Guest
Think you’d have to drop Allen for his defense. Then it would be a question of whether you felt Nettles’ defense compensated enough for his offensive deficit relative to Winfield (who passed the eye test defensively, if not the Rfield test). I’d give that edge to Winfield, but might still vote for Nettles because of the dearth of third basemen in the COG. Tiant is really close to Rick Reuschel. Same WAR. Same IP, Same ERA+, Tiant’s W-L% is a bit better, but likely because he played for better teams. Reuschel has about a 10% edge in WAA, but Tiant… Read more »
Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

Big Daddy got to pitch to a Pitcher about 600 times more than Tiant.

1059 PA
.130 / .165 / .157 / .322

464 PA
.125 / .161 / .156 / .318

And they had almost the same number of PAs against non-Pitchers:

13,829
.274 / .324 / .388 / .712

13,902
.240 / .301 / .379 / .680

e pluribus munu
Guest
Doom, You and Voomo are as steeped in the stats as anyone here. I don’t have anything to tell you that you don’t know about the stats (or about other things, really), but in close calls, I like to think about what dimensions may not be captured by the statistical record. It seems to me that Nettles’s case rests largely on his stats, and perhaps on the boost to his reputation that televised post-season play provided, since it gave him a chance to display some terrific third-base acrobatics in clutch contexts. I don’t mean to diminish Nettles’s quality, but I… Read more »
Voomo Zanzibar
Guest
Here’s a comparison between Dick Allen and Edgar Martinez. I wasn’t fully on board with electing Edgar as “Great”, because I feel like there are enough players who are the “total package” in history that the one/two dimensional guys should be on a slightly lower tier. But we did, so now it feels maybe a touch unfair to dock someone just for bad D. Because if Dick were born ten years later, maybe he’d be Edgar. Maybe better. And maybe his career would have been more than 7315 PA, which for me is the main reason to disclude him. Allen… Read more »
Paul E
Guest
Voom, I guess you could say they were “hitters” and Allen’s oWAR is ever-so-slightly better. Allen had to move off 3B after he lacerated a tendon/ulna nerve in his throwing hand (Aug 1967)…which was preceeded by a separated shoulder (May 1966). Initially moved to LF in 1968, he played 1B primarily through the remainder of his career. But, for the life of me, I don’t know who kept Martinez in the minors nor who moved him off 3B in Seattle. If I understand “WAR” correctly, both guys would have benefited “War Wise” just by standing on 3B and making plays… Read more »
Dr. Doom
Guest
Thanks for all the feedback so far, everyone. Always looking for more, so don’t stop it coming! I have voted for both Nettles and Tiant in the past; Nettles a couple of times, Tiant MANY times. My thoughts concerning the four are this: Allen was a damn fine hitter. Are we sure he was THAT bad on D? How much do the racial factors mentioned many places but called out by epm contribute to contemporary perceptions of Allen, and did they help shorten his career? Should we care that his career was so short when decline years are just decline… Read more »
Voomo Zanzibar
Guest
Regarding whether Allen’s 7315 PA are an issue because usually the PA after that are ‘decline years’… I’ll revisit a stat called PaWaa (Plate Appearances per Win Above Average). Calculating each of our offensive candidates through the seasons closest to 7000 career PA: 200.1 … Larry Jones 213.6 … Allen 224.4 … Nettles 227.6 … Wallace 244.6 … Goslin 254.3 … Dahlen 257.0 … Ashburn 288.6 … Winfield ___________________ And their numbers after 7000 PA: 199.3 … Larry Jones (3548) 279.7 … Dahlen (3665) 589.3 … Wallace (2829) 1371.4 … Goslin (2880) 1610.0 … Ashburn (2898) 3833.7 … Nettles (3067)… Read more »
Paul E
Guest
….this one is a little contrived in order to have twenty players to manipulate the play index function as a non-subscriber. PA > 7,000 ; oWAR > .00925 x PA ; ranked by OPS+ 1 Babe Ruth 206 2 Ted Williams 190 3 Barry Bonds 182 4 Lou Gehrig 179 5 Rogers Hornsby 175 6 Mickey Mantle 172 7 Ty Cobb 168 8 Jimmie Foxx 163 9 Stan Musial 159 10 Johnny Mize 158 11 Tris Speaker 157 12 Dick Allen 156 13 Willie Mays 156 14 Hank Aaron 155 15 Joe DiMaggio 155 16 Honus Wagner 153 17 Napoleon… Read more »
Scary Tuna
Guest

Mike Hampton played 16 seasons. In five of them, he earned more batting WAR than pitching WAR. His 8.2 batting WAR represents 28.3% of his total (29.0) WAR. That’s got to be one of the highest ratios for full time pitchers (with a minimum threshold of innings pitched). George Mullin is right behind him (13.3 of 47.6) at 27.9%. Doc Crandall is the highest (8.6 of 21.1) I can find, although he spent a lot of time at 2nd base in 1914.

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

What’s your minimum IP?
Because Micah Owings and his 483 was good for 0.7

And 3.3 at the bat.

What is that, like, almost Negative 500 percent.

David Horwich
Guest

Jones, Nettles, Tiant

Hartvig
Guest

Chipper, Ashburn, Nettles

The case for Dahlen and, to a lesser extent, Wallace is growing on me.

JEV
Guest

While it pains me on a personal level to give a vote to Larry, I fail to see anyone more deserving.

Jones, Goslin, Brown

e pluribus munu
Guest

Jones, Goslin, Dahlin

Josh Davis
Guest

Jones, Goslin and Winfield

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest
Maybe Winfield wasn’t as good on defense as we remember. I’ve got to consider that possibility. He was six foot six, and so graceful. Perhaps he just LOOKED good when he moved. I’m not that fluent in the mechanics behind the advanced metrics, so I’m trying to understand his D. His range factor was often below average (definitely so in those years that I was right behind him as a bleacher creature, 87-88). So, this is a combination of Putouts and Assists. Putouts. Maybe that big long body of his didn’t have a quick first step. Maybe he looked good… Read more »
no statistician but
Guest

Joe DiMaggio was another player who looked the part, and he was also famous for making plays look easy and effortless. I remember reading his comment on the subject in which he said something like, “It may have looked easy from the stands, but out in the field I was running like hell.” Of course, Joe WAS a great fielder.

Mike L
Guest

Chipper, and then……………………………………………Goslin and Tiant.

birtelcom
Editor

My vote:
Chipper Jones
Bill Dahlen
Bobby Wallace

Jones to win, Dahlen and Wallace to stay on the ballot. My sense is that their cases are at least strong enough to bear comparison with the Winfield, Tiant, Allen, Nettles, Goslin group.

Dr. Doom
Guest
As for Dahlen and Wallace, I haven’t made my case against them in over a year, so I’ll make it here. Statistically, their cases are as strong as anyone’s, EVEN IF you’re skeptical of defensive numbers. They were great hitters at key defensive positions; you can’t ignore that. However, where the case falls apart for me is when they played. I have no problem electing SOME players from the days of Ye Olde Base Ball. But I don’t think Wallace and Dahlen are excellent ENOUGH. I need to see 80+ WAR, at least. Because here’s the thing. Dahlen started playing… Read more »
Voomo Zanzibar
Guest
Not sure how racism comes into play, specifically, here. It was almost all whiteys until the 1950s. And the players were from the Northeast because travel and relocation wasnt as easy back then. Just because we get the best players on the entire planet, now, doesn’t make it fair to hold different eras to that same standard. That’s the point of a stat like WAR. And the point of this exercise here. To determine who was “Great” at the time they were playing. But, referring to that era, why hold them to an 80+ WAR standard, when it was far… Read more »
Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

Most Games Played by a Shortstop in the first 50 years (1871-1921):

2795 … Honus
2444 … Dahlen
2383 … Wallace
2372 … George Davis
2202 … Tommy Corcoran

1895 … Donie Bush
1875 … Herman Long
1806 … Joe Tinker
1737 … Jack Glasscock (carefully)
1728 … Mickey Doolin
1712 … Germany Smith
1684 … Monte Cross
1660 … George McBride
1423 … Art Fletcher

Dr. Doom
Guest
I don’t disagree with any of the REASONS those things were true; I wasn’t suggesting that racism, regionalism, etc. were arbitrary. I was just suggesting that they are factually true statements about the game at that point in time. If the game was THAT bad, I feel that a player should dominate to a massive extent to be considered. Additionally, while you note that career longevity was harder… I’m not sure that’s demonstrably true. The greatest players of that era played just as long as the greatest players of later eras. Cap Anson, Nap Lajoie, Cy Young… they all had… Read more »
birtelcom
Editor
I think the big issue for Dahlen, Wallace and the COG is the Willie Keeler Problem, a problem I struggled with in structuring the COG in the first place. The early Hall of Fame voters couldn’t figure out initially whether Keeler belonged with the Veterans voters or the BBWAA voters, and he received some votes from each. But a consensus gathered fairly quickly and Keeler was soon elected by the BBWAA. Dahlen and Wallace are from that same generation. Keeler with his .341 career BA is a classic example of the kind of guy pre-SABR fans and writers latched on… Read more »
e pluribus munu
Guest
Doom, the problem I have with your approach is your axiom that the turn-of-the-century game was bad. It was the best baseball ever played. Today’s game, in my view, is the best baseball ever played – overwhelmingly: a huge talent pool, extraordinary pre-professional on-field training, medical miracles (from our point of view) and health/nutrition regimes that could not be imagined in the past, and players free to focus 24/365 on their game. In my view, at least half the pre-War CoG members couldn’t play in the MLB today, when dozens of pitchers throw at Johnson/Feller speeds. I do believe that… Read more »
Dr. Doom
Guest
The issue is, epm, we DON’T KNOW if it was the best baseball played at it’s time. We don’t. How do you know there wasn’t a California league with far superior players? How do you know there wasn’t a second-division Negro League team who could’ve beat the pants off the champs? You simply don’t know. If we had called the Texas League a “Major League” in 1898, would we suddenly be checking THEIR players’ stats? There’s a LOT of happenstance that led to the teams and leagues we consider to be best actually being considered the best of all leagues.… Read more »
e pluribus munu
Guest
Doom, you make some very good points. I’m going to respond at some length, but only after noting that my first reaction was that your argument is very strong, and that my response may be weaker. I believe historical context is different from what you’re thinking. In 1900, the states of the West Coast, Rockies, and northern Great Plains together held less than 10% of the US population (overwhelmingly white, I believe). While it’s true that that 10% was underrepresented in the NL, there were no professional leagues to scout out west – individual players did make it to the… Read more »
Dr. Doom
Guest
These ARE very strong counter-arguments. I guess my main point is this: we all have to make judgments about things like league quality all the time. I’m just laying my cards out on the table. I think the standard for players from the Deadball Era and earlier should face a substantially higher standard. Anyone else may vote how they feel on the issue; I just want to put things out there for people to consider. You are, of course, correct about the Negro Leagues in that there weren’t really any such organized leagues at the time; there were, though, town… Read more »
e pluribus munu
Guest

I’m happy to grant the cogency of these arguments, Doom, although we’ll continue to pursue different paths.

Hartvig
Guest
Terrific discussion. Stephen Jay Gould and Bill James both wrote at some length- and if I’m remembering correctly sometimes using each others ideas & examples- about how you sometimes see far greater diversity early on in the life cycle of some organisms or organizations. It’s way too complicated an idea for me to go into in detail since it took people way smarter than me whole chapters of books to explain but James did come up with an example that I think encapsulates the idea very well. First think about a ball players entire career as actually starting in T-ball… Read more »
e pluribus munu
Guest
The Gould/James analysis is an important one, Hartvig, and, as you’d suggest, given Gould’s inclusion, it goes way beyond baseball. But I think there are at least two respects in which its impact is not as definitive as you suggest: 1) the standards of the era form a softly limiting factor for the outstanding players of the era; 2) the analysis does not consider the recursive dimension of players at earlier stages of the game serving as models for players at later stages – that is, the rising talent standards of later eras are dependent upon the exceptional talents of… Read more »
Hartvig
Guest
While he’s ineligible for purposes of our discussion I would argue that Pebbly Jack Glasscock got there before anyone, however your point is still a valid one. My problem is a) that of the 3 there seems to be pretty clear consensus that Davis was the best (not just our voting but the Hall of Fame, Hall of Stats, JAWS, Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract) and b) Honus Wagner. I appreciate that there are times when talent at a particular position seems to come in bunches: Willie, Mickey & the Duke all playing in the same city at the same… Read more »
e pluribus munu
Guest
Well, Hartvig, to try to answer your good challenges: To start with the one you really didn’t make, Glasscock’s play really does involve the difference in what shortstop meant in pre-1893 and post-1893 baseball. If we were including the former in the CoG, I’d make the argument for Glasscock that I’m making here for the later guys. I think you’re merging two issues when it comes to deciding who was the “best” of the three shortstops. Davis is clearly the strongest CoG candidate, but Dahlin has a significant edge in terms of shortstop play – both in being earlier to… Read more »
bells
Guest
This discussion is definitely being read and enjoyed. I think the question of era is a pretty interesting one to try to find a way to resolve, and I have (so far in this process) come down on the side of being open to ‘old’ players being evaluated on a level field with newer ones. To make some tangential points to ones that have been raised here: 1) it seems odd to me to make the argument that since the BBWAA didn’t consider these guys, we shouldn’t. The whole point of the CoG was to reconsider a Hall of Fame… Read more »
Dr. Doom
Guest
Sorry for being out of this discussion, everyone. It’s been a busy few days. Here’s another thing: I have a problem with a COG that includes Bill Dahlen but doesn’t include Satchel Paige. We were asked by birtelcom to consider players only on the basis of their contributions AS PLAYERS to MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL. The idea here being, the REAL Hall set up an entirely different committee to elect Negro League players. Under that instruction, I did not vote for Satchel Paige, because I didn’t believe that Satchel’s Major League accomplishments alone merited his inclusion. Likewise, the Hall set up… Read more »
e pluribus munu
Guest
Doom, I too have trouble with a CoG that includes Dahlen and not Paige. I advocated strongly and regularly for Paige. I distinguished him from other Negro League players by the excellent quality of his MLB play (lifetime ERA+ of 124), with 10+ WAR in under 500 IP, all earned, amazingly, at ages 42-47 — in and out of MLB, depending on whether Bill Veeck was around to make sure he was on a roster — (plus three one-hit no-walk shutout innings at age 59 – perhaps using the curveball that he decided he needed to add to his repertoire… Read more »
Richard Chester
Guest

Jones, Goslin , Winfield

oneblankspace
Guest

Voting this round for:
Winfield
Don’t-call-me-Richie Allen
Don’t-call-me-Larry Jones

Dr. Doom
Guest
First of all, Doug (and whoever else is counting) don’t miss Paul E’s ballot buried in the comment thread I started about my vote. My vote will be at the bottom of this post. Second, I started to look at Winfield and Allen head-to-head, because I thought that comparison was important. it’s hard to separate out all the issues. But I looked at Rbat over their best ten-year stretch. For Winfield, it’s 278. For Allen, it’s 397. Now, even with Allen as a minus defender and Winfield as a plus one… well, nearly 120 runs in ten years is a… Read more »
Paul E
Guest

Doom,
Thanks for pointing out the surreptitious nature of my ballot casting. In our fine democracy, voting is all we have – besides flush toilets and clean water 🙁

Gary Bateman
Guest

Chipper Jones, Goose Goslin, Richie Ashburn

e pluribus munu
Guest

After 15 votes (Gary Bateman’s being the most recent, Paul E and Doom included), this is what I have:

15 – Chipper Jones
=================50% (8)
7 – Goose Goslin
5 – Dave Winfield
4 – Luis Tiant
=================25% (4)
3 – Kevin Brown, Bill Dahlen*,
2 – Dick Allen, Richie Ashburn*, Graig Nettles, Bobby Wallace*
=================10% (2)

Dr. Doom
Guest

Well, I expect we’ll begin to see the strategic votes start coming in. 🙂

e pluribus munu
Guest

According to the rules, if the outcome looked like this – even if it went over 20 votes – as things stand everyone would be staying on (“Top 9, including ties”).

Dr. Doom
Guest

I didn’t realize we only had nine holdovers left!

Nonetheless, there’s STILL room for strategic voting, in terms of attempting to get certain players to thresholds that give them extra rounds of eligibility.

Doug
Guest

Could still see a holdover dropped this round, if he finishes last by himself.

Hub Kid
Guest
I guess we have the slight problem that there isn’t really anything to debate in this round. L.W. Chipper Jones is by far the most worthy, and clearly head and shoulders above our hold-overs. He definitely retired on a high note, age 40 (and final) season slash rates of .287/.377.455, OPS+ 124 and 103 games at 3B, which is good, but I haven’t really had a chance to compare it (and we are spoiled by an David Ortiz’s insane final + age 40 season last year, although as a DH). I’m not totally sure what we are voting for with… Read more »
Dr. Doom
Guest
Looking ahead to next year, we have the same issues as this year in that we don’t know how many we’re going to be electing. If we only have a spot or two, it’ll really severely cramp our style, seeing as I can’t imagine Ichiro failing to be elected. However, if we get three again, that gives some of these holdovers a lot more hope. We’ll just have to wait and see, I suppose. But it got me thinking – who are the candidates coming up in the next few years (50+ WAR)? 1973 – Todd Helton, Ichiro Suzuki, Johnny… Read more »
Doug
Guest

Next round will also feature Andy Pettitte. I’ll be interested in the group’s views on his credentials, particularly after electing Wes Farrell in the last round.

The Marlins have an option on Ichiro for the 2018 season, so next year might see us voting on inducting an active player into the COG. Ichiro has a shot next season to crack the top 20 in career hits, and will become just the sixth player to pass 2500 singles for his career.

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

I predict the consensus on Pettitte will be “Hall of Very Good.”

WAR: 8.4, 6.8, 5.6…….. 3.8, 3.6, 3.4, 3.3, 3.2, 3.1, 2.9, 2.5, 2.5, 2.5, 2.4, 2.2, 2.2, 1.5, 1.1

Among Pitchers with 500+ Starts and a winning percentage over .600, Pettitte is dead last in WAR, and it isn’t close.

no statistician but
Guest
So far no one has drawn much attention to the fact that Chipper Jones was a third baseman. I think it might be interesting to compare him to the other prominent third baseman on the ballot, so, here goes, Nettles vs. Jones: Games: 2700 . . . 2499 PAs: 10228 . . . 10614 ABs: 8986 . . . 8984 Runs: 1193 . . . 1619 Hits: 2225 . . . 2726 2Bs: 390 . . . 549 3Bs: 28 . . . 38 HRs: 390 . . .468 RBIs: 1314 . . . 1623 SBs: 32 . . .… Read more »
no statistician but
Guest

Clarification: I’m referring to batted ball instigated fielding events.

Michael Sullivan
Guest
“Via the magical mysteries of dWAR, Nettles looks a lot closer to Jones than he actually is, in my opinion.” Because defense is not a thing? Nettles was clearly one of the better defensive 3Bs of all time, not quite Beltre or Brooks Robinson level, but he was a premier defender and stayed that way a long time. Chipper was basically average. Yet he still comes out 17 WAR ahead, or around 25% more. Because he was vastly superior offensively, Nettles being moderately above average while Chipper has crazy good numbers. Almost Bagwell numbers, who was an obvious COGer as… Read more »
e pluribus munu
Guest
Michael, you make a good point about nsb’s raw numbers coming from different eras. But it’s interesting that when you compare Nettles and Chipper on OPS, with Nettles’ figure 80% of Chipper’s, it lines up pretty closely with comparative OPS+, where Nettles has 78% of Chipper’s figure. (Am I thinking through this wrong – Nettle’s oWAR comparative figure is only 60%?; I’m no statistician, and there are no buts about it!) I certainly agree that Nettles was very skilled defensively – I saw it too. And dWAR generally does give credit for good fielding to fielders who appear good (although… Read more »
no statistician but
Guest

Michael S:

Good to see that someone besides Doug is reading my ranting.

Basically, though, I was responding to Hub Kid several posts above who bemoaned the fact that there was nothing to debate about this round. A lot of people are big fans of Nettles, and not too many are fans of Jones, so I thought an inflamatory comparison was in order to provoke comment.

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

Here are their neutralized slash lines (Jones/Nettles), if they both played their whole careers on the…

2001 Braves:

.309 / .407 / .537 / .944
.270 / .355 / .458 / .813
________________________

1976 Yankees:

.283 / .378 / .492 / .870
.247 / .329 / .420 / .749
________________________

1908 Brooklyn Superbas:

.257 / .347 / .447 / .794
.224 / .301 / .381 / .682

Brent
Guest

I guess I should vote. Chipper, Goslin and, for fun, my favorite ex-Royal on the ballot, Raul Ibanez.

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest
I’m nearly convinced on both Wallace and Tiant. A lot has been said about Tiant’s up and down career. But was that three-year blip in the middle really that unusual? I think that at first glance the traditional numbers just look bad. A 20 loss season, then half a year, then ONE victory season. But the 9-20 year was actually credited with 3.2 WAR. He started out 0-7, 7.51. But he did straighten it out. And 18 times he received either a loss or a no-decision when giving up 3 runs or less. I’ll take his 1969. Wallace? WAR leaders… Read more »
Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

Vote:

Richie Ashburn
Luis Tiant
Bobby Wallace

(Ashburn is easy to overlook, as his only flashy numbers are walks and defense. But he’s on the bubble, and I’d like to give him a cushion. Larry doesn’t need my vote.)

Scary Tuna
Guest

Jones, Winfield, Goslin.

Michael Sullivan
Guest

I’ll put a vote in again:

Jones
Nettles
Brown

Bruce Gilbert
Guest

Chipper Jones, Bill Dahlen & Graig Nettles

Doug
Guest

Today (Sunday) is the last day to change your vote, should you wish to do so.

e pluribus munu
Guest
Since Doug has noted the deadline for vote changes, I thought it might be a good idea to post the latest vote count (I was otherwise waiting for the 21st vote, in accord with the Doom Formula for vote tabulation). After 20 votes (Bruce Gilbert’s being the most recent), this is what I have: 19 – Chipper Jones =================50% (8) 9 – Goose Goslin 6 – Dave Winfield 5 – Luis Tiant =================25% (4) 4 – Kevin Brown, Bill Dahlen*, 3 – Richie Ashburn*, Graig Nettles, Bobby Wallace* 2 – Dick Allen =================10% (2) 1 – Raul Ibanez* Given that… Read more »
Brendan Bingham
Guest

Vote:
Allen, Ashburn, Dahlen

Hub Kid
Guest

Jones, Tiant, Allen

e pluribus munu
Guest

I messed up the last vote tally by shortchanging Nettles one vote and forgetting to change the precise number of votes needed to qualify for each of the three percentage divisions, so I’m adding this update as we enter the last half-day of voting.

After 22 votes (Hub Kid’s being the most recent):

20 – Chipper Jones
=================50% (11)
9 – Goose Goslin
6 – Luis Tiant, Dave Winfield
=================25% (6)
5 – Bill Dahlen*
4 – Dick Allen, Richie Ashburn*, Kevin Brown, Graig Nettles
3 – Bobby Wallace*
=================10% (3)
1 – Raul Ibanez*

bells
Guest
Wow, now that Wes Ferrell is in, my votes on the holdover ballot are pretty open. I don’t even know what to do with myself. Not that it matters this round, as Chipper gets in clearly. I’m pretty solid on Tiant, but have been cycling between other candidates without much success at having one stick. Wallace and Dahlen have good numbers and I don’t want to discount them too much by era; I’m coming around on Allen due to arguments I’ve heard in the last two weeks; I was high on Nettles a year ago but am coming back around… Read more »
e pluribus munu
Guest

So it seems that the bell has rung on Round 123, with bells having the final vote. The results, if I (at last) have them right, are:

Total of 23 votes:

21 – Chipper Jones
=================50% (12)
9 – Goose Goslin
7 – Luis Tiant
6 – Bill Dahlen*, Dave Winfield
=================25% (6)
4 – Dick Allen, Richie Ashburn*, Kevin Brown, Graig Nettles
3 – Bobby Wallace*
=================10% (3)
1 – Raul Ibanez*

Hub Kid
Guest
Having lost quite a few threads because I’m not up to speed on the current sorting & nesting of threads, I have a belated comment on Satchel Paige in response to the long discussion of Dr. Doom’s approach to Dahlen & Wallace and segregated baseball. I’m putting at the end here so that it is more visible. As far as COG rules go, the precedent is that Satchel Paige is eligible for Redemption Rounds, so it is still up to voters. If I remember correctly, Paige came in 4th place and was only a few votes from being put on… Read more »
wpDiscuz