Circle of Greats 1972 Balloting Part 3

This post is for voting and discussion in the 124th round of balloting for the Circle of Greats (COG).  This is the last of three rounds adding to the list of candidates eligible to receive your votes those players born in 1972. Rules and lists are after the jump.

The new group of 1972-born players, in order to join the eligible list, must, as usual, have played at least 10 seasons in the major leagues or generated at least 20 Wins Above Replacement (“WAR”, as calculated by baseball-reference.com, and for this purpose meaning 20 total WAR for everyday players and 20 pitching WAR for pitchers). This last group of 1972-born candidates, including those with N-Z surnames, joins the eligible holdovers from previous rounds to comprise the full list of players eligible to appear on your ballots. The 1972-born candidates, with A-M surnames, were eligible to receive your votes in the previous two rounds of balloting.

Each submitted ballot, if it is to be counted, must include three and only three eligible players. As always, the one player who appears on the most ballots cast in the round is inducted into the Circle of Greats. Players who fail to win induction but appear on half or more of the ballots that are cast win four added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Players who appear on 25% or more of the ballots cast, but less than 50%, earn two added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Any other player in the top 9 (including ties) in ballot appearances, or who appears on at least 10% of the ballots, wins one additional round of ballot eligibility.

All voting for this round closes at 11:59 PM EST Friday, February 17th, while changes to previously cast ballots are allowed until 11:59 PM EST Wednesday, February 15th.

If you’d like to follow the vote tally, and/or check to make sure I’ve recorded your vote correctly, you can see my ballot-counting spreadsheet for this round here: COG 1972 Part 3 Vote Tally. I’ll be updating the spreadsheet periodically with the latest votes. Initially, there is a row in the spreadsheet for every voter who has cast a ballot in any of the past rounds, but new voters are entirely welcome — new voters will be added to the spreadsheet as their ballots are submitted. Also initially, there is a column for each of the holdover candidates; additional player columns from the new born-in-1972 group will be added to the spreadsheet as votes are cast for them.

Choose your three players from the lists below of eligible players. The eleven current holdovers are listed in order of the number of future rounds (including this one) through which they are assured eligibility, and alphabetically when the future eligibility number is the same. The 1972 birth-year players are listed below in order of the number of seasons each played in the majors, and alphabetically among players with the same number of seasons played.

Holdovers:
Goose Goslin (eligibility guaranteed for 7 rounds)
Kevin Brown (eligibility guaranteed for 6 rounds)
Dave Winfield (eligibility guaranteed for 5 rounds)
Luis Tiant (eligibility guaranteed for 3 rounds)
Dick Allen (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Bill Dahlen (eligibility guaranteed for this 2 rounds)
Graig Nettles (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Richie Ashburn (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Bobby Wallace (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)

Everyday Players (born in 1972, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR, N-Z surname):
Manny Ramirez
Jason Varitek
Rondell White
Greg Norton
Jay Payton
Scott Spiezio
Dave Roberts

Pitchers (born in 1972, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR, N-Z surname):
Andy Pettitte
Brad Radke
Salomon Torres
John Wasdin
Jay Witasick
Jay Powell
Felix Rodriguez

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177 Comments on "Circle of Greats 1972 Balloting Part 3"

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ThickieDon
Guest

Kevin Brown, Dick Allen, Goose Goslin

Brent
Guest

Goslin Brown and Tiant

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

Jay Witasick got to pitch in the World Series in two consecutive years, for two different teams, and managed to record an ERA of 54.00 both times (1.1 IP / 8 ER … 0.1 IP / 2 ER)

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

Salmon Torres was done at age 25, gone for 4 years, then came back and was effective for 6 seasons, ending his career with a 28 Saves at age 36.

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

If Brad Radke and Andy Pettitte had been drafted by the opposite teams, what coulda been for Radke?
(cherry picking just a bit…)

1998 – 2000

Radke
36-44
18.0 WAR
.
Andy
49-31
8.4 WAR
_________

1998-2004

Radke
85-78
31.3 WAR
.
Andy
104-58
19.2 WAR

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

Dave Roberts had a season of 49 SB / 6 CS

That many/few of each, since CS were effectively recorded:

52/5 … Jerry Mumphrey
52/4 … Jacoby Ellsbury
51/5 … Barry Larkin
50/5 … Tim Raines
50/6 … Eric Davis
49/5 … Mike Trout
49/6 … Roberts

47/3 … Jimmy Rollins
47/4 … Davey Lopes
47/5 … Willie Wilson

Jeff Harris
Guest

Manny-B-Manny, Brown, Dahlen

e pluribus munu
Guest

This illustrates how Manny fits in with the continuing holdovers in a number of categories. (As usual, WAR/Yr eliminates fragmentary seasons.)

Pitchers
P(Tot)WAR…Peak5..Top5…WAR/9IP…WAR/Yr….ERA+…Career length
68.5 (68.3)……37.0…37.0……0.189……4.0 (17)……127……1.0………Brown
66.1 (66.7)……28.7…34.7……0.171……3.9 (17)……114……1.2………Tiant
Position Players
WAR……Pk5……Top5……WAR/G…WAR/Yr……OPS+…Career length
58.7………31.5……36.7……0.034……4.2 (14)……156………1.0………Allen
63.6………31.6……32.7……0.029……4.2 (15)……111………1.3………Ashburn
75.2………22.6……29.8……0.031……4.0 (19)……110………1.4………Dahlen
66.1………32.5……32.8……0.029……4.1 (16)……128………1.3………Goslin
68.0………28.7……32.2……0.025……3.4 (20)……110………1.4………Nettles
69.2………28.7……29.9……0.030……4.1 (17)……154………1.3………Ramirez
70.2………28.6……31.3……0.029……4.2 (17)……105………1.3………Wallace*
63.8………26.9……28.6……0.021……3.0 (21)……130………1.7………Winfield

*Wallace’s total WAR (incl. pitching) is 76.3.

e pluribus munu
Guest

I probably should have included Pettitte in my list of viable CoG candidates for this round. Here’s the way he stacks up against our two holdover pitchers, Brown and Tiant:

Pitchers
P(Tot)WAR…Peak5..Top5…WAR/9IP…WAR/Yr….ERA+…Career length
68.5 (68.3)……37.0…37.0……0.189……4.0 (17)……127……1.0………Brown
60.9 (60.8)……20.3…28.4……0.166……3.4 (18)…..117……1.0………Pettitte
66.1 (66.7)……28.7…34.7……0.171……3.9 (17)……114……1.2………Tiant

e pluribus munu
Guest

Doug, I think that according to the 1972/pt 2 results, Bill Dahlen has earned an additional round of eligibility.

Doug
Guest

I have him at 5 votes out of 23 ballots, so below the 25% threshold for an extra round of eligibility.

Hub Kid
Guest

I respectfully submit 6/23 for Dahlen: Doug, e pluribus munu (as “Dahlin”), Birtelcom, Bruce Gilbert, Brendan Bingham, & Bells

e pluribus munu
Guest

Did I do “Dahlin?” It’s for some reason my default for him, but I usually get it corrected before I post.

Yeah, bells specifically voted for Dahlen in the last Round 123 vote in order to push him above the 25% mark.

David P
Guest
Manny and Pettitte are clearly the two best newcomers on the ballot. But I can’t see voting for either of them. Manny has the stats (both regular and postseason) but his two failed drugs tests are a big black mark. And those are just the two times he was caught…probably means he was using PEDs a lot of other times in his career as well. Top it with his general lackadaisical attitude and I say no. Pettitte also had some PEDs involvement. But more importantly, his peak is way too low. Only 3 seasons with 4+ WAR. Not nearly enough… Read more »
Doug
Guest
Pitchers most similar to Pettitte in IP (3000-3500) and ERA+ (115-119). Carl Mays, Billy Pierce, Dutch Leonard, Dolf Luque, CC Sabathia, Mark Buehrle, Wilbur Cooper, Dennis Eckersley, Buck Walters, Chuck Finley Don’t see any COGers in that group other than Eck who, of course, had a bit of a unique career. If we look instead at the number of starts made, Pettitte is in a group of just 12 pitchers since 1901 with 500 to 550 starts. Of that group, the two closest to Pettitte in ERA+ (and in WAR) are Jim Bunning and Rick Reuschel, both I think it… Read more »
Hartvig
Guest

It’s amazing- or maybe not- that most of the pitchers you listed are ranked right around Pettitte (#88) by JAWS- Cooper (86), Buehrle (89), Walters (80), Pierce (100).

David P
Guest

Pettitte does much better under FIP based WAR. Fangraphs has him with 68.9 career WAR vs only 60.9 for Baseball Reference.

Manny, on the other hand, does a little worse on Fangraphs (66.3) vs Baseball Reference (69.2).

Hartvig
Guest
FWIW the Hall of Stats gives Manny a score of 129 which is slightly over the top 119 (or however many it was) cutoff point of about 125 & very similar to Joe Jackson & Tim Raines. JAWS scores him at 54.6, which as I recall was right about at or maybe a little below the cutoff point for their top 119. Pettitte comes in a 109, which is a little below Wes Ferrell (hitting not included), tied with Hoyt Wilhelm & a little above Whitey Ford & Sandy Koufax. His JAWS score is 47.4 which is almost identical to… Read more »
Voomo Zanzibar
Guest
Manny was a lousy fielder and baserunner. And clearly one of the greatest batters ever. 8th all-time in both SLG and OPS. Played in some great hitters parks, in a super high offensive era, with some semi-legal chemical assistance. To get a sense of context, I’ll list his career stats, followed by the fun game of projecting his numbers in other eras: .312 / .411 / .585 / .996 / 154 1968 Dodgers .260 / .350 / .487 / .837 2000 Rockies .350 / .452 / .655 / 1.107 2016 AL Neutral Park .304 / .402 / .569 / .971… Read more »
David P
Guest

Pretty amazing how park and era can affect OPS by nearly 300 points!

e pluribus munu
Guest
I’m struck by the resemblances between Ramirez and Allen, both in terms of OPS+, where they are alike in being borderline CoG players despite being in the class of Mays, Aaron, and DiMaggio in that key stat, and also in being famous for poor fielding and problematic behavior in their days. Ramirez has a significant edge in total WAR, but Allen has a significant edge in peak WAR. Both players seem to me to fall about equally short of the CoG threshold overall. But if I were tempted to vote for one it would certainly be Allen rather than Ramirez,… Read more »
aweb
Guest

Ramirez, Brown, Allen

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest
Comparing our 4 outfielders, by best WAR seasons. Gos.. Ash… Win… Manny 7.5 … 7.1 … 8.3 … 7.3 6.8 … 7.0 … 5.4 … 6.0 6.5 … 6.6 … 5.3 … 6.0 6.4 … 6.3 … 5.3 … 5.4 5.6 … 6.1 … 5.1 … 5.2 5.3 … 5.7 … 4.3 … 5.2 5.3 … 5.5 … 4.1 … 4.8 3.7 … 4.6 … 3.9 … 4.6 3.3 … 4.4 … 3.5 … 4.5 3.2 … 3.8 … 3.4 … 4.4 2.9 … 3.4 … 3.1 … 4.2 2.7 … 2.2 … 2.8 … 4.1 2.7 … 2.1 …… Read more »
JEV
Guest

Goslin, Brown, Ramirez

paul d baker
Guest

Winfield, Allen, Pettitte.

T-Bone
Guest

Allen, Tiant, Winfield

Paul E
Guest

Allen, Ashburn, Winfield

I just can’t vote for Ramirez (despite an OPS+ almost as high as Allen’s) due to the multiple violations for steroid use. But in the eyes of his supporters (not necessarily on this blog), it’s kind of like: “I’m sorry, he didn’t use steroids, they were only in his bloodstream”. Or, “Everyone else took them”…..
I dunno

Richard Chester
Guest

Question #8: 1950AL batting champion Billy Goodman.

Richard Chester
Guest

Goslin, Winfield, Allen

no statistician but
Guest
Manny Ramirez bothers me a lot. To me he was, after Sammy Sosa, the worst manifestation of all that went wrong in baseball during that 12-year stretch (1996-2007) when 22 of the 38 50-HR seasons were generated and the fans couldn’t get enough of it. Ramirez’ s career as a full-time player begins in 1995 and ends in 2008, so it spans that period and not much more. Unlike Bobby Bonds and Roger Clemens, there’s no non-steroid period in this career to examine in order to form a judgment on as to what kind of player he actually was. The… Read more »
Paul E
Guest

“……he was, after Sammy Sosa, the worst manifestation of all that went wrong in baseball”. AGREED
Homers, age 29-33:
1 Sammy Sosa 292 1998 2002
2 Babe Ruth 232 1924 1928
3 Jim Thome 227 2000 2004
4 Jeff Bagwell 205 1997 2001
5 Willie Mays 203 1960 1964
6 Alex Rodriguez 202 2005 2009
7 Manny Ramirez 199 2001 2005
8 Mike Schmidt 199 1979 1983
9 Lou Gehrig 194 1932 1936
10 Edwin Encarnacion 193 2012 2016
11 Frank Howard 190 1966 1970

Hartvig
Guest

What’s really remarkable about Bagwell being on that list is that for the first 3 seasons he was still playing in the Astrodome.

David P
Guest
I don’t plan on voting for Manny but I’m also not sure what to make of this. Ramirez was hardly some unknown who burst onto the scene out of nowhere. He was drafted 13th overall, was rated as highly as the 7th best prospect in baseball, and absolutely raked in the minors. His 1993 season particularly stands out. As a 21 year old, splitting time between AA and AAA, he hit 44 doubles, 31 home runs, had 115 RBIs, and a triple slash line of .333/.417/.613. And despite his poor reputation, Ramirez actually was well-known as a hard worker, dating… Read more »
no statistician but
Guest

David P:

My remarks weren’t to deny that Ramirez was a valuable player, even a great player at times. The problem with him specifically is that there’s no context in which to judge him but the one that raises doubts as to his absolute worth.

Re you’re final comment: it cuts both ways. How much easier or harder is it to perform well when you’ve got a lot of help? Or, contrariwise, when you’re pulling a larger percentage of the load? Depends on character, personality, group dynamics—all those things statistical analysis can’t measure.

Paul E
Guest

Of course he was the hardest worker….while on steroids, Ramirez never tired. Maybe he should have worked harder on his fielding instead of his bench press and tire-dragging?

e pluribus munu
Guest

Goslin, Dahlen, Wallace

The vote for Wallace is strategic; I’m not really ready to argue that he’s more qualified than Tiant, Allen, or Ashburn, three others who I’d think about for my third vote, but I’d like to get him on the board. I’m hoping all those players will remain eligible.

e pluribus munu
Guest

After 11 votes (my vote the most recent), I have these results:

6 – Dick Allen
=================50% (6)
5 – Kevin Brown, Goose Goslin, Dave Winfield
3 – Manny Ramirez*, Luis Tiant
=================25% (3)
2 – Bill Dahlen,
=================10% (1)
1 –Richie Ashburn*, Graig Nettles, Andy Pettitte*, Bobby Wallace*

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

We still don’t have a consensus on how to orient to the ‘steroid era.’
I think what bothers our collective sensibilities is that that era noticeably skewed the numbers, and that the numbers are somehow sacred. Thus, we cannot ignore the impact. Whereas we were happy to ignore 50 years of amphetamine use. And perfectly fine with our athletes getting way too many cortisone (steroid) shots, so long as they were on the field to entertain us.

Mike L
Guest
I can’t bring myself to vote for the “known” juicers. And yes, the numbers are sacred in baseball and that played a roll, but more to the point was the huge change in the players from one level of performance to another. Sosa’s went from 25-30 HR power to twice that. His 98-02 numbers were historically absurd. To put this is proper context, when I was growing up 50HR was the sacred circle. Ruth 4 times, Mantle 2, Foxx 2, Mays 2, Kiner 2, Greenberg, Wilson, Mize, Maris. Every kid knew them, including the years. Foster hit 52 in 1977.… Read more »
ThickieDon
Guest

So Brady Anderson only “juiced” for the one year?

Mike L
Guest

I think you would have to ask Brady Anderson. One could make the argument that miracles occasionally happen. And the 1990’s were certainly a miraculous time.

ThickieDon
Guest

That’s my argument. At least for Brady 1995, Luis 2001 and even Bonds 2001. Miracle seasons. Dawson 1987, too.

McGwire, Sosa, Palmiero… The roids were the miracle. Then again I don’t necessarily discount their stats though. They still hit.

Frank Thomas was way bigger than all of them anyway. By his own argument, he should have hit 80 a year.

no statistician but
Guest
ThickieDon: As to Dawson, there was no miracle. There’s pretty clear reason to believed that the balls used in 1987 were what was juiced. HR production jumped from 3813 in 1986 to 4458 in ’87 and dropped to 3180 in ’89, as the manufacturers adjusted back a little too far. Plus, in 1987 Dawson moved to a hitter’s park; he was a proud man who had something to prove; Wade Boggs, Keith Moreland, George Bell, and numerous other players blasted far past their previous HR highs. An interesting question: Were the balls as well as the players juiced in the… Read more »
ThickieDon
Guest
To me that whole season falls under the miracle umbrella. There have been some contradictory findings about the balls in the late 90’s. Anecdotally, we (my friends and I, certain commentators) all thought it was the balls back then, at least in 1993, 1994, 1995. We assumed baseball conspired to “juice” offensive numbers by using “juiced” balls, to sort of counter the effects of the upcoming strike. Players still looked normal-sized. There are those who say there is no real statistical or scientific correlation between hitting home runs and doing ‘roids. Especially in the case of, say, Brady Anderson, who… Read more »
Hartvig
Guest

Steroids don’t only produce home runs. The year after Anderson had his miracle season at age 32, he had a slugging percentage that was higher than any previous season of his career (with the exception of said miracle season of course), a feat he replicated again 2 years later at age 35.

I would also consider the possibility that there were at least a few players who stopped juicing either out of concern about possible long term health consequences or simply because their conscience got the better of them.

ThickieDon
Guest

Regarding Anderson’s slugging %, 1992, 1996, and 1999 he was 30% above league average.

So you’re saying he juiced a ton over the winter of 1994/1995, used his new power to hit 50 homers, then said, “Oops I’m gonna get caught” and then suddenly got skinny and weaker (not weak, he was always a powerful hitter) again?

Paul E
Guest

There had been talk that the baseball was so tightly stitched that there was very little wind resistance – no kiddin’. Sounds a little bit like the Warren Commission….
Steroids work – plain and simple. That’s why athletes continue to take them. Without steroids, Barry Bonds was the greatest player of his generation. With steroids, he was, arguably, the greatest player of all time. He was peak-of-their careers Ted Williams, Babe Ruth, and Mantle as a hitter. And, he made that leap in the seasons of his career when there should have been a down-turn in performance.

ThickieDon
Guest

He took HGH, not steroids,

David P
Guest
This is a good article on the effects on steroids on weightlifters, that would likely apply to baseball players as well: “The distinction between the groups’ histories with strength-enhancing drugs is important because these drugs don’t just “flush out” completely — they can leave a lasting impact. Consider this 2008 American Physiological Society study, which found that the benefits of steroids in powerlifters can last several years beyond when the drugs leave their body. So, even if drugs aren’t in an athlete’s system, he might be lifting heavier because he used PEDs a few years ago. He’s laid down a… Read more »
Paul E
Guest

and insulin, too, no?

ThickieDon
Guest
Apologies for hijacking the thread with a steroid / HGH debate. I didn’t mean to rub anyone the wrong way, especially as a newcomer, and huge lover of stats. Consider me a ‘roid apologist and don’t mind me. For fluke seasons like Anderson and Gonzalez, my stance is that there is zero evidence to support that PED use caused the big HR or power surge. A fluke just like George Foster in 1977, or Maris. For sustained power surges like McGwire, Palmiero, Sosa and Bonds, my stance is that despite the admitted use of PEDs, and their obvious weight and… Read more »
e pluribus munu
Guest
Voomo, I don’t really know about the relative use of cortisone shots in various eras, or how the medical community regarded levels of cortisone use during those eras. I do know that cortisone shots were never banned by MLB, and that there is little relationship between corticosteriods and anabolic steroids when it comes to the PE aspects of PEDs. I don’t think that discussions of cortisone shots for injuries has any relevance to PED issues. I also don’t know about MLB’s attempts to regulate amphetamine use or about the relation of regular amphetamine use to overall performance on the field.… Read more »
Mike L
Guest

EPM, you hit the ball out of the park with that one.

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

Yep, that was exactly the sort of brilliant summary I was hoping to prompt with my volley.

e pluribus munu
Guest

Thanks Mike and Voomo.

Paul E
Guest

Voom,
Steroids enhance athletic performance; amphetamines and cocaine work well on the dance floor in after-hours night clubs.

Hartvig
Guest

In fairness, they can make it a lot easier to take the field on a hot late-August night after you woke up with the mother of all hangovers in the middle of the afternoon. And they do tend to sharpen your senses (the military still gives them to fighter pilots flying combat missions). But they can also cause tremors and make you anxious, neither of which I would think would be particularly beneficial to a hitter.

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

When Chuck Dobson was told that Bowie Kuhn might prohibit “greenies,” an arrogant but realistic Dobson reacted strongly:

“I’d like to see him put on a uniform for 162 games in 180 days, and then see what he says.”

Paul E
Guest
“I’d like to see him put on a uniform for 162 games in 180 days, and then see what he says.” Voom, I believe, if given the choice, ML’ers would choose steroids with impunity (the Selig era) over amphetamines (the ’60’s – 70’s) with impunity. Getting “all amped up” beats you up, exhausts you physically, etc…. and is probably not the right prescription for the 162 game task at hand. Basically, from 1990 – 2005, we saw those major leaguers make the choice to take steroids in lieu of ‘greenies’ Nat Geo or one of those channels had abusers/addicts attempt… Read more »
Gary Bateman
Guest

Goslin, Ashburn, Dahlen

Hub Kid
Guest
There’s one thing I want to say about Manny Ramirez and his PED use, he was caught twice and paid a penalty twice. That has to account for something. You can say he got off lightly and probably used more PEDS than that, fair enough, but he has faced some sort of justice and served his punishment; that is more than can be said for many of the players who are tarred with the PED brush. He had hitting ability from the start and all through his career- surely that can’t all be from drugs. I’ve become more unsure about… Read more »
ThickieDon
Guest

I agree with you that he’s on the borderline with or without being caught cheating. His fielding and baserunning take him down several pegs. Some great players – Jim Thome is the first that comes to mind – are 100% one-dimensional, but Manny was like offensively bad at non-hitting stuff.

To be fair, Manny did have some decent fielding seasons, and even greatly improved his Green Monster play over time.

I do plan to vote for him eventually, probably, but I couldn’t do it while Dick Allen (higher career OPS+ and wRC+) was on the ballot, too.

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest
I’ve always been a big Manny fan (I tend to enjoy the coffee-colored players who have ‘too much’ personality. The modern take on racism is painfully obvious to me. Rickey, Pedro, Manny, I have no problem with them-being-them). And when we started this round I came into it thinking he was an obvious pick. But … I’d forgotten just how ridiculous of an offensive era he played in. Cherry-picking Manny’s absolute peak (1997-2006), in which he was over 5 OWar every year, a full decade in which he slashed: .319 / .418 / .614 / 1.031 / 162 … averaging… Read more »
ThickieDon
Guest

I mostly agree with you about Manny’s place in history (including the racist element).

Maybe his big bat was not enough to overcome the other aspects of his game. Maybe it was. His sustained peak was great but there have been other one-dimensional hitters that hit well w/r/t to the league for 10 years and are not regarded as COG-worthy.

Mike L
Guest

Goslin, Tiant, Wallace.
Not doing Manny, not doing Pettitte, not doing Brown. Rondell and Spiezio were tough, though.

ThickieDon
Guest

Is Brown a PEDs guy? I didn’t know he was connected.

Mike L
Guest

Named in the Mitchell Report.

ThickieDon
Guest

I remember that now. I don’t necessarily think that proves anything. He was easily one of the top 5-10 pitchers of the era (Clemens, , Johnson, Maddux, Pedro, Schilling, Mussina).

Mike L
Guest

There’s no way to quantify with precision the impact of PED usage on any given player. But for me, in this exercise, it’s a hard rule–I won’t vote for one. Others disagree and reach their conclusions rationally.

ThickieDon
Guest

I’m not judging your stance, just justifying him as one of my picks. Sorry if I came across that way.

Mike L
Guest

Didn’t take it that way. Brown is a special case for a lot of us literally going back a few years from the early days of the project. He’s always had a core of support, always been held over election after election, and, to date, not made it.

Hartvig
Guest
I’m wavering a bit on Nettles, in part because of Chipper and Rolen on the horizon but mostly because I still think Buddy Bell & Ken Boyer are more deserving. It’s close & maybe his getting in would open the door for them but that could be years from now. And epm convinced me to reevaluate Dahlen yet again. I still feel that the era does distort the quality of play to a not insignificant extent. But it’s also true that he played much of his career with 140 game seasons and that he was a terrific player in 1891… Read more »
birtelcom
Guest

1. Wallace
2. Dahlen
and, oy, I’m tempted by Tiant and Brown and Allen and Nettles and Winfield and Manny.
3. Tiant

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

How did Manny drive in 165 in 1999?

Men On
351 PA
.377 / .470 / .743 / 1.213

RISP
241 PA
.383 / .481 / .755 / 1.237

Line Drives
93 PA
.900 / .871 / 1.244 / 2.115

The line drives are a bonus stat.
.867 BaBip on line drives!

bells
Guest
Doug and all, I was just thinking about how this lovely three-round island of CoG voting is coming to a close, and we won’t get to revisit it for another 11 months. And also, I was thinking about how the first vote in a year ended up giving somewhat different results than the previous voting patterns – Farrell won, Dawson fell off, etc. Naturally we lost some voters (and have a few new ones!) and I think also people changed their minds over the year off, perhaps. On this last note of changing minds – should we have a redemption… Read more »
Hartvig
Guest
If I’m not mistaken both Kenny Lofton & Edgar Martinez- and maybe some others as well- fell off of the holdover list at some point prior to being voted into the COG. I think the most compelling reasons for a redemption round (or even 2… or 3) are 3-fold: a) at most we are going to have 10 holdovers going into the next round and I would guess that 9 is more likely and 8 is not out of the question. In the past 12 or 13 holdovers were very common and as many as 15 or 16 were not… Read more »
Hartvig
Guest
I should also add that I agree with bells about voting patterns. Not only do new- or the absence of some old- voters have an impact but I think that other holdovers do as well. It’s not always the number 2 or 3 guy on the holdover list that picks up support following someone on the list getting in to the COG (or, occasionally, someone falling OFF the holdover list). We have had 3 redemption rounds since the 00’s which ended with a ridiculously strong ’03 & a deep ’00 which, as I recall, culled the ranks of holdovers considerably.… Read more »
e pluribus munu
Guest
With regard to the question of how changes in voters between Rounds 121 (2016) and 122 (2017) affected the outcome, I’ve looked at the posters who voted in those two elections and the interruption clearly hurt Brown, Goslin, and Winfield, and helped Tiant. Among Round 121 voters who did left, there were 8 Brown voters, 11 Winfield voters, and 11 Goslin voters. Among new voters (or, better, voters who did not vote in R 121), Brown and Goslin picked up 3, Winfield 2, Tiant 5, and Ferrell only 1. Ferrell prevailed largely because for him alone among the leaders, a… Read more »
e pluribus munu
Guest
I’ve always been ambivalent about Redemption Rounds — I worry that redeemed players will not last and will only spread out votes in a way that might skew results at the top. Of course, I’m aware that in the past, redemption has led players to the CoG (ones I’ve voted for, like Ferrell), and that balances my concerns. But, frankly, it’s really clear that the CoG is not only the most popular feature of HHS, but also perhaps the one that generates the most detailed discussion. HHS needs a way to regain its old followers and gain new ones, and… Read more »
Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

Yes. More voting rounds of all shapes and varieties, please.
I’ll float out an idea that was roundly shot down the one other time I suggested it…

… Hows about a round to vote somebody OUT of the COG?
It wouldn’t be death. Whoever is voted out would simply be put back on the holdover list.

It might be great fun to argue Larry Walker vs Sandy Koufax vs Harmon Killebrew vs Roy Campanella vs Craig Biggio vs Whitey Ford vs Enrico Pallazzo.

Hartvig
Guest

IF we’re going to consider voting someone out I would strongly suggest that we establish a fairly high threshold for doing so. Not only will some people object just on general principles but we do need to keep in mind that most of these guys were selected when we regularly had 60 or more people voting on a regular basis and currently we have considerably less than half that number.

Hartvig
Guest
I’m not against expanding voting to include 19th Century players & the Negro Leagues but if and/or when we decide to do so I would suggest that we delay starting the process for a month or two so some of us can do some further reading on the subject. I’m familiar with most of the usual suspects but to really study up on the subject it would be nice to read as much as I can lay my hands on before we begin. If anyone has any suggestions about good books to read (hopefully not too dry) I’d be happy… Read more »
e pluribus munu
Guest
This is just the sort of thing I’ve had in mind, Hartvig. I don’t think that too many HHS contributors will have the time to read a lot of these books in a short time, but if a few of us do, and figure out how to digest relevant information on historical framework and data availability in some kick-off posts, those can orient the rest of us as we start talking about initial choices and then actual votes. (Not to mention that for each of those two sets, we’d need to figure out good nomination/voting procedures; year of birth may… Read more »
Hartvig
Guest
Of the two I would think that starting with the Old Timers would be the easier task for people to get up to speed on. That would give us more than 2 dozen rounds of voting to conduct during which time people could start to familiarize themselves with the Negro Leagues and even there my guess it that there will be a fair number of people familiar enough with the bigger names- Paige, Gibson, Charleston, Bell & so on- that another dozen or so rounds won’t require much heavy lifting unless for some reason we decide to make an issue… Read more »
e pluribus munu
Guest
I agree that players from the 19th century would be easier for HHS readers to assess. I’m not sure, though, that there are two dozen 19th century players who belong in the CoG. In assessing whether 19th century Greats are true Circle-of Greats we face much more significant problems, such as small player pools (in some early seasons, fewer than 100 players were even on MLB rosters) and uncertain league talent levels (obviously the Union League, but also the AA in some years and the Players League – not to mention the three-league talent dilution of 1884 and 1890). I… Read more »
Hartvig
Guest
I just picked the 2 dozen figure from the # of players selected by the Old Timers Committee. The problem there however is that by the time they closed up shop a decade or so later is that not only had they expanded their reach to include some players who played most and in some cases all of their careers in the 20th Century. It didn’t help that they also decided that guys like Joe Tinker & Tommy McCarthy were Hall worthy but George Davis & Roger Connor were not. So yes, 2 dozen is probably too big a number,… Read more »
e pluribus munu
Guest

Ah. I’d assumed the two-dozen figure was estimating the number of added birth years for players in the 1876-1899 era. Coincidence.

Hub Kid
Guest
This round really has us confronting PEDS with a vengeance. Partly in answer to Voomo Zanzibar’s thread much earlier, I think the COG does have a consistent PED approach, as a body of voters: known PED users get hit with a penalty and they get fewer votes, and COG voters mostly ignore rumors and go with evidence. Kevin Brown is a good example for the PED penalty, if he wasn’t in the Mitchell Report, he probably would have had the extra 10% or so to win one of several COG rounds. Bonds and Clemens both got in, but with significantly… Read more »
Mike L
Guest
I haven’t voted for Brown or any of the “known” PED users and I don’t plan to (of course, we aren’t getting another round for 11 months). Brown, I think occupies a particular space in the discussion. He’s not like Clemens and Bonds, who would be no-doubt on their stats first ballot types. He’s rather someone who would get enough votes, if clean, in a year where the competition is a little thin. His WAR would rank him in the bottom third of already-selected COG pitchers–and that’s juiced War, so it’s hard to know what his true talent level really… Read more »
Hub Kid
Guest

Mike L, I think you are right about Brown being something of a unique case (of drawbacks); I think there are enough weaknesses in his case that most voters agree with at least one (or more) of them. Having been something like the 6th or 7th best pitcher of his era can’t help much, either; although his core career value is still there. I voted for him once or twice many rounds ago, but once Tiant was on the ballot I realized he is by far my favorite among the borderline pitchers with similar career WAR.

David P
Guest

Did Pettitte come clean? Personally, I highly doubt it and I was shocked at how easily journalists and the public fell for it. His story was completely self-serving. We don’t believe others when they come up with those sorts of stories, so why should we believe Pettitte?

Hub Kid
Guest

I don’t remember it that well, but Pettitte’s response to being named in the Mitchell Report was more than we’ve gotten in most cases.

I guess the only full apology I can think of is Mark McGwire’s, and I know that many would say that he made the apology at least in part so that he could work for the Cardinals. I still think McGwire should get credit for it, though. If we want to put the “Steroids Era” behind us, players need to have an incentive to be honest with the public.

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

Here is the video of Pettitte apologizing for using HGH.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bcl_MdAYcM

__________________

Note that he used the stuff in 2002.
MLB banned it in 2005.
So what exactly are we talking about?

Hub Kid
Guest
Dick Allen, Manny Ramirez, Andy Pettitte Allen is probably my favorite player on our ballot, and like Manny Ramirez a hitting talent for the ages. Manny’s hitting stats are still pretty amazing, even if not quite so spectacular in the context of the era (thanks, Voomo, and ThickieDon for a ton of great Ramirez stats and discussion above). Even though the hitting achievements can be mitigated somewhat by proven PED use, I don’t think his affinity for swinging a baseball bat came from drugs. And I still think Pettitte is too close to be one-and-done. At least two great seasons… Read more »
Hartvig
Guest
I agree that Pettitte at least belongs in the discussion. If I had a vote for the HOF he would probably be on my ballot. As of now I think he falls a little short of the COG but remain open to being convinced otherwise. We are reaching the point on the talent curve where the differences among a fairly large pool of players- I guess about 3 dozen or maybe even more- are largely a matter of perspective and even a minor change to how things like WAR or Win Shares or how JAWS or Adam’s Hall of Stats… Read more »
David Horwich
Guest

Goslin, Tiant, Winfield

T-Bone
Guest
My voting record shows that I’m a big Dick Allen fan. My following comments shouldn’t be a surprise based on that. I really think a significant part of the “Troublemaker” status Allen got tagged with had to do with the Phillies organization. I’m not totally exonerating Allen, but I believe his upbringing, the time he played in, and the Phillies abysmal history on integration were the biggest factors in the reputation that followed him. If you read the SABR BIO on Allen, you read 2 things early on that were significant, I believe, in creating the problems. From the SABR… Read more »
e pluribus munu
Guest

I’m not yet an Allen voter, but I began very much opposed to his candidacy and he’s now on the borderline for me. It was the SABR bio that started my change of attitude, and I agree with T-Bone that it’s valuable to read for this process.

Paul E
Guest
T Bone, Allen’s biggest problem, for the most part, was staying healthy: 1964 – 1965: misses one game playing in 162 and 161 games respectively 1966: Separates his shoulder and hits the DL. Misses approximately 20 games. Hits 317/.396/.632 1967: Plays in all 122 of the first 122 team games before he lacerates his hand tinkering with his car. 6.9 oWAR in 122 G 1968: Plays in 152 of 162. 2nd in NL OPS 1969: Plays in 53 of first 63; gets suspended and misses 31 games. Plays in all but 3 of remaining team games when Phillies’ owner Bob… Read more »
e pluribus munu
Guest
Because this evening is the deadline for vote changes, I’m posting an update on the tally. After 17 votes (David Horwich the most recent), I have these results: =================50% (9) 8 – Goose Goslin 7 – Dick Allen, Luis Tiant 6 – Dave Winfield 5 – Kevin Brown, Bill Dahlen =================25% (5) 4 – Manny Ramirez* 3 – Richie Ashburn*, Bobby Wallace* 2 – Andy Pettitte* =================10% (2) 1 – Graig Nettles As I see it, among vote-getters, only Pettitte appears in danger of dropping off, unless some votes move away from other players on the bubble. As has been… Read more »
Josh Davis
Guest

VOTE
Goslin, Kevin Brown, Manny Ramirez

Bruce Gilbert
Guest

Bill Dahlen, Graig Nettles and Kevin Brown

Scary Tuna
Guest

Goslin, Winfield, and because I don’t feel strongly about another candidate, I’m going to use my third vote as a tip of the hat to Brad Radke. He was a solid anchor of the Twins staff for years, but I didn’t realize how strong he was in terms of WAR. Voomo’s comment above about “what could have been” had Radke been in Pettitte’s situation is intriguing.

opal611
Guest

For the 1972 Part 3 election, I’m voting for:

-Manny Ramirez
-Dave Winfield
-Luis Tiant

Other top candidates I considered highly (and/or will consider in future rounds):
-Pettitte
-Brown
-Goslin
-Ashburn
-Nettles
-Allen
-Wallace
-Dahlen

Thanks!

e pluribus munu
Guest

After 21 votes (opal611 the most recent), I have these results:

=================50% (11)
10 – Goose Goslin
8 – Luis Tiant, Dave Winfield
7 – Dick Allen, Kevin Brown
6 – Bill Dahlen, Manny Ramirez*
=================25% (6)
3 – Richie Ashburn*, Bobby Wallace*
=================10% (3)
2 – Graig Nettles, Andy Pettitte*
1 – Brad Radke*

Brendan Bingham
Guest

Vote:
Luis Tiant, Dick Allen, Graig Nettles
And of course a huge “thank you” to Doug for fostering these recent three rounds of COG voting — much enjoyed! — and to birtlecom for having conceived this project and guiding us during its first couple years. Looking forward to next January and (I hope) another 3, or 4, or 5 rounds.

Dr. Doom
Guest
Well, better get my vote in! Kevin Brown Luis Tiant Graig Nettles I really, really don’t know how to separate these guys on the holdover list. I do think I can’t vote for Manny. Not for the steroids stuff, either. Regardless of how you feel about ‘roids, I don’t think Manny’s career backs it up. We’ve had a LOT of discussions over the years regarding Dave Winfield’s defense, and whether it could’ve possibly been bad enough to wipe out as much of his offense as WAR says. Well, Manny, I watched. I watched him in Cleveland (when my Brewers were… Read more »
Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

Goslin’s HR numbers were suppressed in the first half of his career by playing in Washington.
Here are his home and away HR numbers:

1923
1/8

1924
1/11

1925
6/12

1926
0/17 !

1927
7/6 ?

1928
4/13

1929
3/15

e pluribus munu
Guest
Interesting point, Voomo. Goslin’s other partial and full season HR splits while playing in Griffith Stadium (1921-22, 1931, 1938) were 6/10. Goslin reached mid-way during his age 29 season with a total of 27 home runs at home, with 85 away, or 24%. (Of course, he had a lot of triples – only 37% of his triples over that period were in away parks, though over his entire career, the proportion grew to 43%.) Interestingly, Navin Field in Detroit seems to have bounced back and forth as a pitcher’s/hitter’s park during Goslin’s stay – mostly the former. To get an… Read more »
Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

Vote:

Richie Ashburn
Kevin Brown
Goose Goslin

For offensive players I’m looking for guys who had no holes in their game.
The fellas that you’d love to clone and plug 8 of them in your lineup.

For pitchers I’m looking for dominance.
Maybe Brown had a PED boost, but we know the guys he was pitching to did as well.
Looking at his peak from 1996-2000, in that offensive era, I’ve got to give it to him.

The Brown stat I find most telling is that he is 2nd all-time in Putouts (far, far behind Maddux).
This suggests that he induced a lot of poor contact.

Mike L
Guest

Voomo, don’t you find the sharp increase in Brown’s K/9 rate to be fascinating? He went from averaging about 4.5K per 9 in his first few years to almost doubling that as he aged. In 1998-2000, he finished second, second and third in Ks in the NL.

Dr. Doom
Guest

Since a lot of folks were interested in Negro League baseball (and other non-MLB baseball) there was this pretty good list on MSN the other day to serve as a primer. If it’s something you want to research on your own time, here is a cool list of guys to look up.

Hartvig
Guest
I’m guessing a lot of those names will be among the first we’ll be talking about but please let’s not expand this to Japanese baseball. I’m already feeling a little overwhelmed by the thought of trying to sound like I know what I’m talking about when it comes to the Negro Leagues. I was in Kansas City for a wedding a few years back & my friends and I decided that we would go eat at Arthur Bryants & visit the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum on Sunday before we drove back to Iowa since our hotel wasn’t too far from… Read more »
e pluribus munu
Guest

Doug’s early a.m. vote has made this final CoG round of the young year a horse race going into the final day. Those who saved their votes until today will determine the outcome.

After 25 votes, I have these results:

=================50% (12)
11 – Goose Goslin, Luis Tiant
9 – Kevin Brown
8 – Dick Allen, Dave Winfield
6 – Bill Dahlen, Manny Ramirez*
=================25% (6)
4 – Richie Ashburn*, Graig Nettles, Bobby Wallace*
3 – Andy Pettitte*
=================10% (3)
1 – Brad Radke*

Hartvig
Guest
If you look at JAWS Tiant (55.6) is right in the middle of a group of pitchers who have been the subject of many a discussion and debate on HHS. The highest scoring of those pitcher is Rick Reuschel (56.9) and between him & Louie are Kevin Brown, Don Drysdale, Ted Lyons, Red Ruffing & Vic Willis. Once you get past Reuschel pretty much everyone eligible is in the COG with the sole exception of Hal Newhouser. Just behind Tiant are Joe McGinnity, Stan Coveleski & Jim Bunning and a trio of COGer’s, Dazzy Vance, John Smoltz and Rube Waddell.… Read more »
Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

Where they ranked in WAR in their leagues in their best five years
(note that there were less players in Goslin’s time, but there are more position players than pitchers, so it evens out):

Goslin (WAR Position):

1928 … 3rd
1926 … 3rd
1925 … 3rd
1924 … 3rd
1927 … 7th

Tiant (WAR Pitchers)

1968 … 1st
1974 … 3rd
1972 … 4th
1976 … 6th
1978 … 7th

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

Goslin has a notable longevity accomplishment.
He had 125+ RBI seasons at ages 23 and 35.
I’ve looked at the top 50 RBI guys. Nobody else has done 125 at those two ages (or younger/older).
Just a handful of guys have even done 100.
Only fella to come close is Pujols, who got there with his 119 last year at age 36.

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

Also close was Aaron
(132 at 23, then 118 at 36 and 37)

And McGwire
(118 at 23, then 147 at 35)

e pluribus munu
Guest

I love Goslin, Voomo, and he has my vote here, but he did have the advantage of playing in an era where teams, including his, were scoring 6 runs per game, and someone had to knock them in. In ’36, with Greenberg sidelined, Goslin had a shot that Pujols, Aaron, and McGwire would not get.

Richard Chester
Guest

Hank Greenberg had 139 RBI at age 23 and 127 RBI at age 35.

Voomo Zanzibar
Guest

And 125th all-time in RBI.
Damn WWII

no statistician but
Guest

All in all Greenberg missed nearly five and a half seasons, if you include 1936 when he was injured. He spent more time in uniform than any other big-leaguer during WW II, and he and Bob Feller, who missed over three and a half seasons, are, to my mind, not nearly appreciated at the level they ought to be as a result, unlike DiMaggio and Williams.

Doug
Guest

David Ortiz’s last season at age 40 is easily the oldest with 125+ RBI, three years older than Babe Ruth and Edgar Martinez.

Ortiz is also the first player at any age with 125 RBI in his final season. The previous high RBI total in a final season (excl. Black Sox) was 99 by Kirby Puckett, at age 35, and the previous final season RBI high aged 40+ was 75 by George Brett (three more than Ted Williams).

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