Circle of Greats 1979 Balloting Part 3

This post is for voting and discussion in the 140th round of balloting for the Circle of Greats (COG).  This is the last of three rounds of balloting adds to the list of candidates eligible to receive your votes those players born in 1979. Rules and lists are after the jump.

The new group of 1979-born players, in order to join the eligible list, must, as usual, have played at least 10 seasons in the major leagues or generated at least 20 Wins Above Replacement (“WAR”, as calculated by baseball-reference.com, and for this purpose meaning 20 total WAR for everyday players and 20 pitching WAR for pitchers). This group of 1979-born candidates, comprising those with R-Z surnames, joins the eligible holdovers from previous rounds to comprise the full list of players eligible to appear on your ballots.

In addition to voting for COG election among players on the main ballot, there will be also be voting for elevation to the main ballot among players on the secondary ballot. For the main ballot election, voters must select three and only three eligible players, with the one player appearing on the most ballots cast in the round inducted into the Circle of Greats. For the secondary ballot election, voters may select up to three eligible players, with the one player appearing on the most ballots cast elevated to the main ballot for the next COG election round. In the case of ties, a runoff election round will be held for COG election, while a tie-breaking process will be followed to determine the secondary ballot winner.

Players who fail to win either ballot but appear on half or more of the ballots that are cast win four added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Players who appear on 25% or more of the ballots cast, but less than 50%, earn two added future rounds of ballot eligibility. One additional round of eligibility is earned by any player who appears on at least 10% of the ballots cast or, for the main ballot only, any player finishing in the top 9 (including ties) in ballot appearances. Holdover candidates on the main ballot who exhaust their eligibility will drop to the secondary ballot for the next COG election round, as will first time main ballot candidates who attract one or more votes but do not earn additional main ballot eligibility. Secondary ballot candidates who exhaust their eligibility will drop from that ballot, but will become eligible for possible reinstatement in a future Redemption round election.

All voting for this round closes at 11:59 PM EST Sunday, February 25th, while changes to previously cast ballots are allowed until 11:59 PM EST Friday, February 23rd.

If you’d like to follow the vote tally, and/or check to make sure I’ve recorded your vote correctly, you can see my ballot-counting spreadsheet for this round here: COG 1979 Part 3 Vote Tally. I’ll be updating the spreadsheet periodically with the latest votes. Initially, there is a row in the spreadsheet for every voter who has cast a ballot in any of the past rounds, but new voters are entirely welcome — new voters will be added to the spreadsheet as their ballots are submitted. Also in the spreadsheet is a column for each of the holdover candidates; additional player columns from the new born-in-1979 group will be added to the spreadsheet as votes are cast for them.

Choose your three players, for both the main and secondary ballots, from the lists below of eligible players. The current holdovers are listed in order of the number of future rounds (including this one) through which they are assured eligibility, and alphabetically when the future eligibility number is the same. The 1979 birth-year players are listed below in order of the number of seasons each played in the majors, and alphabetically among players with the same number of seasons played.

Holdovers:

MAIN BALLOT ELIGIBILITY SECONDARY BALLOT ELIGIBILITY
Dick Allen 9 rounds Billy Williams 5 rounds
Vladimir Guerrero 6 rounds Bobby Abreu 4 rounds
David Ortiz 4 rounds Ken Boyer 4 rounds
Gary Sheffield 3 rounds Richie Ashburn 2 rounds
Luis Tiant 3 rounds Stan Coveleski 2 rounds
Bobby Wallace 3 rounds Andre Dawson 2 rounds
Ted Lyons 2 rounds Don Drysdale 2 rounds
Willie Randolph 2 rounds Andruw Jones 2 rounds
Scott Rolen 2 rounds Monte Irvin 2 rounds
Todd Helton this round ONLY Don Sutton 2 rounds
Minnie Minoso this round ONLY Reggie Smith this round ONLY
Ted Simmons this round ONLY    
Chase Utley this round ONLY    

Everyday Players (born in 1979, R-Z surname, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Juan Uribe
Jayson Werth
Ramón Santiago
Carlos Ruiz
Josh Willingham
Kevin Youkilis

Pitchers (born in 1979, R-Z surname, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Rafael Soriano
Chris Young
Johan Santana
Wandy Rodríguez
Brad Ziegler
Juan Rincón
Brandon Webb

As is our custom, here are quiz questions for each of the new players on the ballot.
1. Juan Uribe played over 15 post-season games at both SS and 3B. Which other player has done the same? (Manny Machado)
2. Jayson Werth posted 1.361 OPS for the Phillies in the 2008 World Series. Which Phillie outfielder posted a higher OPS in a single World Series (min. 15 PA)? (Lenny Dykstra, 1993)
3. Ramón Santiago’s 59 OPS+ in 2003 is tied with several players for the lowest mark by a Tiger in a qualified season (modern definition). Which of those players recorded the lowest career OPS+ among All-Stars with 5000+ PA careers? (Ed Brinkman)
4. Carlos Ruiz teamed with Cole Hamels to form the most durable battery in Phillies history, with 207 regular season starts together. Whose franchise record did Ruiz and Hamels break? (Pete Alexander/Bill Killefer, 191 starts)
5. Josh Willingham recorded 5 qualified seasons in his career, all of them with 20 HR, 25 doubles, 50 walks and 10 HBP, and is the only player to post such seasons for four different franchises. Which player recorded the most such seasons in a career? (Carlos Delgado, 1998-2007)
6. Kevin Youkilis recorded consecutive 400+ PA seasons (2009-10) slashing .300/.400/.500 for Boston. Which player recorded the longest streak of such seasons by a Red Sox first baseman? (Mo Vaughn, 1996-98)
7. Rafael Soriano is one of seven pitchers to record a 40 save season for three different franchises. Who was the first pitcher to do this? (Jeff Reardon, 1991)
8. Chris Young is one of eight Padre pitchers to record consecutive seasons with 30 starts and 3 WAR. Which two of those pitchers accomplished this feat in the same seasons? (Bruce Hurst/Ed Whitson, 1989-90)
9. Johan Santana is the only pitcher with three consecutive seasons (2004-06) leading his league in WHIP, ERA+ and SO/9. Which pitcher recorded the most seasons leading his league in all three of those categories? (Pedro Martinez, 5 seasons)
10. Brad Ziegler is the only pitcher with top 10 career ranks in ERA, ERA+ and HR/9, among retired relievers with 500+ game careers. Ziegler’s 390 ERA+ in 2008 is the best in any 50+ IP debut season. Which pitcher has the top ERA+ in a 50+ IP rookie season? (Rob Murphy, 1986)
11. Wandy Rodríguez recorded a 37 point improvement in his ERA+ from his first three seasons to his next three campaigns, the fourth largest such increase among starting pitchers with 300+ IP in both periods and with ERA+ under 90 in the first. Which of those pitchers recorded the largest such ERA+ improvement? (Jake Arrieta, 73 points)
12. Juan Rincón recorded four straight 70+ IP seasons (2003-06) for Minnesota. Which pitcher recorded the only longer streak of such seasons by a Twins reliever? (Al Worthington, 1964-68)
13. Brandon Webb posted a qualified 125 ERA+ in each of his first six seasons. Which other modern era pitcher did the same? (Mordecai Brown, 1903-10)

And, a couple of unanswered quiz questions from last week’s post.
14. Dan Johnson posted 7 consecutive seasons (2008-15) of 40 or fewer games, playing first base in all of them. Which player has the only longer streak of such seasons? (Russ Morman, 8 consecutive seasons 1988-91, 1994-97)
15. Jon Garland was a CG winner in his first post-season game, allowing 2 runs on 4 hits. Who is the last pitcher to allow more than 2 runs in a CG win in his post-season debut? (Gaylord Perry, 1971 NLCS)

0 0 votes
Article Rating
Subscribe
Notify of
guest

131 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Voomo
Voomo
20 days ago

I propose that after this round, we have a 2nd Chance round. A ballot where anyone who has ever stayed for more than one round on the main or secondary ballots is given a chance to get back into the discussion. Just in the last two weeks we have lost Berkman and Nettles. Perhaps the system is perfect as it is, and the guys who have fallen off are right where they should be. But as we are not as active as we used to be, it would give us something to do, while we still have the momentum of… Read more »

Voomo
Voomo
20 days ago

Johan certainly has a case for the COG, even with 51.7 WAR. Averaged 7.1 WAR over his 5 year peak. 23rd in WAR7adj, tied with Spahn and Vance (Top 7 seasons, stat maxes out seasons at 250 IP, to neutralize the 19th century innings monsters). Only 16 pitchers have more top 5 CY votes. In his peak from 2004-2008, he was arguably the greatest pitcher in the world, as that half decade was at the tail end of the careers of Clemens, R Johnson, Schilling, and Pedro. Here is the bottom of the WAR list for our COG Starting Pitchers:… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
19 days ago
Reply to  Voomo

On Santana: A quick glance at his career and stats makes him appear superficially similar to Koufax: Not as erratic early on, breakout season as a starter at age 25, performing exceptionally for seven years to Sandy’’s six, career truncated by injury. Lots of strikeouts, excellent FIP and WHIP. He was a better pitcher in his early twenties than Koufax was, but went out with his career in somewhat of a decline, whereas Koufax retired at his peak. The fact that he spent just one year in the HOF ballot sweepstakes strikes me as an absurdity, even given the relative… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
18 days ago

Wonderful analysis, nsb, as usual. It’s good to see you and Voomo going at in-depth analysis and advocacy, which is what made CoG voting strings so interesting.

Doug
Doug
19 days ago
Reply to  Voomo

Santana definitely requires you to think whether “greatness” is best measured by peak value or cumulative career value. Adam Darowski’s Hall of Stats uses a methodology to distinguish these two components of greatness, and then combines the two into a single score. In Santana’s case, that score is 108 (where 100 = HoF-worthy), with 64% of the score resulting from peak performance. Sandy Koufax scores 102, with 54% resulting from peak performance. Adam announced at the end of December that he will no longer be updating the Hall of Stats database. The above link is a database archive current to… Read more »

Last edited 18 days ago by Doug
Paul E
Paul E
20 days ago

# 4) Robin Roberts/Stan Lopata ? (Carlton didn’t like pitching to Boone and preferred McCarver – I just don’t think McCarver played enough with the Phillies)

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
19 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

Here’s what I came up with:
Carlton/Boone 146 games
Roberts/Lopata 136 games
Roberts/Seminick 126 games

Doug
Doug
19 days ago

It’s none of those.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
19 days ago
Reply to  Doug

How about Lonborg/Boone, 155 games?

Doug
Doug
18 days ago

Not them.

Paul E
Paul E
18 days ago
Reply to  Doug

Pete Alexander and Bill Killefer 1911-1917? (and then some more with the Cubs)

Paul E
Paul E
17 days ago
Reply to  Doug

The Phillies threw away Jenkins and Sandberg. And, their hands were sort of forced when they dealt Allen and Rolen to the Cards….

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
16 days ago
Reply to  Doug

Doug: I came up with 199 games for Alexander/Killefer.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
13 days ago
Reply to  Doug

I did more research and then realized that 199 games is in error and the answer is what you found. I created a spreadsheet that identifies starting batteries but something is awry.

Scary Tuna
Scary Tuna
19 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

I found 149 games for Carlton/McCarver

Paul E
Paul E
18 days ago
Reply to  Scary Tuna

Tuna,
All with the Phillies? or some STL?

Doug
Doug
18 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

Only with the Phils.

Scary Tuna
Scary Tuna
18 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

Yes, as Doug mentioned, I only looked at their time together with the Phillies.

Paul E
Paul E
20 days ago

#2) Lenny “Nails” Dykstra in 1993 (1.413)

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
19 days ago

For #7 I got Jeff Reardon who did it while on the Red Sox in1991

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
19 days ago

Answer to #12 is Al Worthington with 5 straight seasons.1964-1968.

Scary Tuna
Scary Tuna
19 days ago

#10: Jonathan Papelbon

Doug
Doug
19 days ago
Reply to  Scary Tuna

You would certainly think Papelbon’s 517 ERA+ would have to be the best. But there’s another rookie season even better.

Scary Tuna
Scary Tuna
18 days ago
Reply to  Doug

Finally found it: Rob Murphy in 1986.

Scary Tuna
Scary Tuna
19 days ago

#9: Pedro Martinez with five? Walter Johnson is the only other pitcher I have found with even three such seasons.

Doug
Doug
19 days ago
Reply to  Scary Tuna

Pedro is correct. I think the totals are:
5 – Pedro
3 – Santana, Walter Johnson
2 – Vance, Seaver, Randy Johnson
1 – Waddell, Alexander, Grove, Newhouser, Koufax, Kershaw, Dutch Leonard, Hippo Vaughn, Harry Brecheen, Mike Scott

Last edited 19 days ago by Doug
Paul E
Paul E
19 days ago

#6) Mo Vaughn 1996-98 (with a 152 OPS+ to boot)

Doug
Doug
18 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

Vaughn is correct.

Which contemporary of Vaughn bested his feat as a first baseman, with 5 such consecutive seasons including, like Vaughn, 150 OPS+ and 35+ HR each year?

Last edited 18 days ago by Doug
Scary Tuna
Scary Tuna
18 days ago
Reply to  Doug

Frank Thomas?

Paul E
Paul E
18 days ago
Reply to  Doug

Frank Thoams was doing a Ted Williams imitation for a while there. Interesting that both 1995 league MVP’s, Vaughn and Larkin, had better seasons in 1996 and didn’t get a single first place vote for MVP between them

Doug
Doug
17 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

Nothing against Vaughn. He had a fine season in ’95, but had no business beating out Thomas and, especially, Albert Belle for MVP. Thomas was the 2-time defending MVP and, since his numbers were down from ’94 when he just plain unconscious, I can sort of see why voters would shy away from him. But, Belle? 103 XBH, 377 TB, only 50 double/50 HR season ever, and all in a short season, and he was even almost league average defensively (-1 Rfld). So, maybe he was a bit of a jerk, but is that a reason to jerk him around… Read more »

Last edited 17 days ago by Doug
Paul E
Paul E
17 days ago
Reply to  Doug

In 1995, Jayson Stark (who’s actually a real nice guy and fan of the game) wrote sort of a “Nah-Nah” article about Albert’s “pretty numbers” and his failure to treat people (i.e. Sportswriters/The Voters) in a humane fashion and the apparent consequences.

Supposedly, Belle was very intelligent but was either on a steroid cycle or just had a loose screw…..”but, hey, I’m no doctor”. He had a few years putting up incredible numbers with the Tribe – and at least one with CWS as well

Paul E
Paul E
19 days ago

#5) Anthony Rizzo with six (?)

Doug
Doug
18 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

Not Rizzo.

Scary Tuna
Scary Tuna
18 days ago
Reply to  Doug

How about Frank Robinson?

Scary Tuna
Scary Tuna
18 days ago
Reply to  Doug

I was surprised that someone had more than Robinson’s seven. But Carlos Delgado had far more, with ten consecutive seasons.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
18 days ago

Answer to #1: Manny Machado

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
18 days ago

Doug mentioned Adam Darowski’s Hall of Stats rankings in a great discussion thread on Johann Santana above, with arguments from Voomo and nsb. Adam (who posted here a few times, as I recall) evaluates players on the basis of a formula weighing peak measures against cumulative statistics, arriving at a single number, as Doug mentions. For context of scale, Ruth is at the top with 399. Six players break 300; 25 more break 200; 36 more break 150. Anyone with a score of 100 or more is in Adam’s “Hall of Stats” and has a ranking. There are 242 members.… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
17 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Bob: One of the unfortunate results of baseball fandom turning blindly to interpretive statistics as the ultimate source of judgment—an awkward beginning, but let it stand—one of those results is that reasoned discussion and arguable disagreement are stifled. Don’t have to look at the details of a player’s career, don’t have to judge him critically, don’t need to know his biography or his teams’ histories during his playing career, don’t need even to know the difference among eras, dead ball, live ball, steroid, and all the others. Just need to know WAR. Somewhere in the works of Thomas Wolfe there’s… Read more »

Voomo
Voomo
17 days ago

Can you re-write that line about Mariano? I don’t understand..

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
17 days ago
Reply to  Voomo

I think nsb’s point is that, great as Wilhelm’s knuckler was, it had an enormous downside (so to speak) in terms of generating PBs that affected game outcomes, whereas Rivera’s cutter did not.

I remember that the Orioles provided Wilhelm’s catcher, Gus Triandos, with a hugely oversize mitt at one point. The goal wasn’t to catch the knuckler, just to block it.

Great stat on Drysdale vs. Koufax. Fans of Brooklyn–even once they started playing home games away–were well aware of this contrast.

Voomo
Voomo
17 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Got it. It was a comparison to Wilhelm.

no statistician but
no statistician but
17 days ago
Reply to  Voomo

Voomo: Wilhelm’s passed ball numbers, according to observers during his career (although admittedly, I have no source for this observation except my own aged memory) were understated, but even given the data as is, Rivera’s battery mates allowed a mere10.9 percent as many. I just picked Rivera for comparison because he’s regarded as the premier reliever of all-time by numerous informed observers. Gossage may be a better match. In 1800 innings he suffered 17 passed balls compared to 271 in 2250 for Wilhelm or 9.4 percent. All three were relief pitchers (although Wilhelm and Gossage each spent one season as… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
17 days ago

For the unanswered question 14 of the prior posting I came up with Gaylord Perry in game 1 of the 1971 NLCS as the Giants defeated the Pirates 5-4.

Paul E
Paul E
17 days ago

#3 above sounds an awful lot like Eddie Brinkman at 65 OPS+ (also, he had a 59 OPS+ TWICE with the Tigers in qualified seasons). But, just a guess, as I couldn’t recollect any hitters in Tigers’ history that bad…..

Paul E
Paul E
17 days ago

#8) Bruce Hurst & Ed Whitson in 1989 , 1990.
Whitson led the NL in pitching WAR (7.0) in 1990 while going 14-9…. he was no match for Doug Drabek at 22-6 and garnered ZERO votes let alone any first-place votes

Voomo
Voomo
17 days ago
Reply to  Doug

I’m sure you all know this but it’s amazing enough to bear repeating.

Hurst was the first left-handed Red Sox pitcher to win a world series game since Babe Ruth.

And an anagram of his name is:
B Ruth Curse

Paul E
Paul E
17 days ago
Reply to  Voomo

Never heard that one – Thanks!!

Voomo
Voomo
16 days ago

Vote:

Minnie Minoso
Willie Randolph
Johan Santana

Voomo
Voomo
16 days ago

Vote:

Secondary

Ashburn
Covlelski
Andruw Jones

Andruw Jones had an 11 year peak in which he averaged
157 Games
33 HR
100 RBI

5.5 WAR
22 rField

Arguably the greatest defensive CF ever.

opal611
opal611
16 days ago

For the 1979 – Part 3 election, I’m voting for:

-Vladimir Guerrero
-Todd Helton
-Willie Randolph

Other top candidates I considered highly (and/or will consider in future rounds):

-Rolen
-Utley
-Tiant
-Allen
-Wallace
-Lyons
-Sheffield

Quick Note: Should Brandon Webb have been listed as one of the new candidates for this selection? I would not be voting for him, but it looks like he had a 33.0 WAR.

Thanks!

Doug
Doug
13 days ago
Reply to  opal611

You’re absolutely right, Opal. Brandon should be on the list. Sorry I missed him.

I’m guessing Webb would not have been the winner of the round but, since he arguably could have attracted a vote with that WAR total, I’ll keep him on the ballot for our next round.

opal611
opal611
16 days ago

For the Secondary Ballot, I’m voting for:

-Don Sutton
-Andre Dawson
-Andruw Jones

Thanks!

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
16 days ago

For reasons discussed above, I’m going to vote the Modified-Historical Party ticket: Bobby Wallace Ted Lyons Luis Tiant nsb has been calling for nuance in CoG decisions, and I’m going to be singlemindedly focused on nuance in presenting another iteration of The Case For Bobby Wallace. 1) My nuanced case for Wallace’s stats: Among eligible candidates he’s at the top of the WAR chart (76.4 — better than half the CoG membership) and the top candidate according to The Hall of Stats (see above). 2) My nuanced case for Wallace within his era: a pretty-good-pitcher-turned-virtuoso-shortstop (and above-average-batter), Wallace is the… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
15 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Bob,
Quite nuanced, indeed.
I have to belive that “Scott” of the 1884 B’more Monumentals refers to a surname. The “Scott” moniker as a first name really has only caught hold in the last 60 years or so. Beam me up….

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
14 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

Paul, I’m sure you’ll recall that the 1871 Rockford Forest Cities were managed by the 24 year-old Scott Hastings, said to be the inventor of catcher hand signals. Hastings was still playing professionally as late as 1887 and could easily have been the Monumental Scott of 1884, especially if he’d shaved his prominent moustache in order to play in the Union Association incognito. This is certainly a topic worthy of further research. Since Hastings’s first name was officially Winfield (the things we do to children!) I have to acknowledge a lapse in not considering the possibility that “Scott” was neither… Read more »

Doug
Doug
15 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Interesting that Dreyfuss made the remark in 1911. As the Pirates owner, he presumably had not seen much of Wallace’s play since his NL days, which had ended ten years earlier. I suppose since his man Wagner was still going strong at 37, he assumed the same of Wallace, who was the same age.

Last edited 15 days ago by Doug
koma
koma
16 days ago

Main Ballot;
Vladimir Guerrero
David Ortiz
Minnie Minoso

Secondary Ballot:
Bobby Abreu
Ken Boyer

Chris C
Chris C
16 days ago

I sort of forgot about this site for a while. I’m happy to see the COG is still going.

Main Ballot: Ortiz, Sheffield, Santana
Secondary: Sutton

Doug
Doug
15 days ago
Reply to  Chris C

Welcome back Chris.

Voomo
Voomo
15 days ago

On the subject of reducing everything to one statistic, here is a stat I created called PaWaa (Plate Appearances per Win Above Average). It another way of looking at WAR,but Ive also broken it down in to PaWaa2000, PaWaa5000, PaWaa7000, PaWaa8000, PaWaa9000, PaWaa10000, and PaWaa11000… …as a way of looking at players in the first xxxx# of PA in their career. This is to give perspective to careers like Albert Pujols, whose perceived greatness was diminished by longevity. This list is probably not complete. And I just updated it for the first time since 2015, without going through Every one… Read more »

Voomo
Voomo
15 days ago
Reply to  Voomo

PaWaa – Career – Minimum 2000 PA   84.4 … (10622) Babe Ruth 97.2 … (9480) Rogers Hornsby 102.1 … (12606) Barry Bonds 102.5 … (6521) Mike Trout*** 104.0 … (9788) Ted Williams 113.5 … (12496) Willie Mays 118.5 … (5404) Jose Ramirez*** 122.2 … (3619) Aaron Judge*** 124.0 … (5757) Mookie Betts*** 123.1 … (9663) Lou Gehrig 125.7 … (9907) Mickey Mantle 127.7 … (11748) Honus Wagner 128.5 … (13084) Ty Cobb 135.8 … (11992) Tris Speaker 137.3 … (10062) Mike Schmidt 138.9 … (2084) Red Ruffing 140.5 … (7673) Joe DiMaggio 141.3 … (5695) Joe Jackson 147.3 … (5804) Jackie Robinson… Read more »

Voomo
Voomo
15 days ago
Reply to  Voomo

PaWaa 2000 74.3 … Babe Ruth 104.5 … Mike Trout 105.9 … Joe Jackson 109.1 … Stan Musial 111.6 … Ted Williams 113.2 … Willie McCovey 116.2 … Rogers Hornsby 113.7 … Willie Mays 127.3 … Kenny Lofton 127.6 … Lou Gehrig 133.4 … Red Ruffing 135.4 … Aaron Judge 135.6 … Bobby Grich 136.1 … Cal Ripken 137.0 … Johnny Mize 137.4 … Mookie 137.5 … Mike Schmidt 139.5 … Albert Pujols 142.5 … Mike Piazza 143.4 … Wade Boggs 146.5 … Alex Rod 147.5 … Jimmie Foxx 154.4 … Chase Utley 155.5 … Carlton Fisk (took him 7… Read more »

Voomo
Voomo
15 days ago
Reply to  Voomo

PaWaa 5000  77.6 … Babe Ruth 93.8 … Ted Williams 96.0 … Mike Trout 97.9 … Rogers Hornsby 103.0 … Mickey Mantle 108.5 … Ty Cobb 109.8 … Willie Mays 111.8 … Barry Bonds 116.5 … Stan Musial 116.8 … Albert Pujols 117.6 … Lou Gehrig 118.5 … Jose Ramirez 118.7 … Tris Speaker 120.8 … Jimmie Foxx 121.1 … Mike Schmidt 121.8 … Wade Boggs 126.1 … Honus Wagner 128.0 … Ken Griffey 128.8 … Alex Rod 129.8 … Chase Utley 130.9 … Joe DiMaggio 133.7 … Johnny Mize 136.4 … Rickey Henderson 138.1 … Arky Vaughan 140.8 …… Read more »

Voomo
Voomo
15 days ago
Reply to  Voomo

PaWaa 7000 77.1 … Babe Ruth 94.0 … Rogers Hornsby 97.0 … Ted Williams 102.5 … Mike Trout 104.2 … Ty Cobb 105.6 … Mickey Mantle 106.8 … Willie Mays 107.9 … Honus Wagner 108.1 … Barry Bonds 111.2 … Albert Pujols 117.1 … Stan Musial 117.3 … Lou Gehrig 117.6 … Mike Schmidt 124.5 … Rickey Henderson 125.3 … Tris Speaker 125.4 … Alex Rod 135.2 … Joe DiMaggio 135.3 … Jimmie Foxx 135.4 … Hank Aaron 136.4 … Wade Boggs 139.6 … Joe Morgan 142.4 … Ken Griffey 143.4 … Mel Ott 145.7 … George Brett 150.6 …… Read more »

Voomo
Voomo
15 days ago
Reply to  Voomo

PaWaa 8000 79.1 … Babe Ruth 93.7 … Rogers Hornsby 96.1 … Ted Wiliams 101.5 … Willie Mays 103.9 … Ty Cobb 108.6 … Mickey Mantle 109.2 … Barry Bonds 109.2 … Honus Wagner 115.4 … Lou Gehrig 121.0 … Stan Musial 121.5 … Albert Pujols 123.4 … Mike Schmidt 124.7 … Tris Speaker 128.7 … Rickey Henderson 132.4 … Alex Rod 133.4 … Jimmie Foxx 133.8 … Hank Aaron 141.7 … Joe Morgan 142.5 … Mel Ott 148.3 … Eddie Mathews 155.0 … Wade Boggs 156.3 … George Brett 157.2 … Ken Griffey 161.6 … Cal Ripken 161.9 …… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
15 days ago
Reply to  Voomo

Voomo: A Herculean accomplishment. And the result shows players from all eras sprinkled through the ascending ratings. If you tried this with pitchers, it would not be so. Owing to the current trend of pulling starters in the sixth inning more or less, the figures skew in their favor dramatically, at least in a simpler formation of pWAR/ IP. Dead ball era pitchers also have an advantage. In other words, your version for position players is useful as a means to evaluate players across eras, but I think that if you would apply it to pitchers, you would find that… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
14 days ago

Of course I disagree! . . . But I need a while to figure out some basis for it. I just hope the reason you expected me to wasn’t because of my comic distortion of your term “nuance” to try to spice up repeating my same old arguments for Bobbly Wallace. We should absolutely go beyond single-stat reductions and look at complexes of skills and contexts. I wasn’t making fun of you, I was making fun of how much I’ve been repeating myself (and to such little effect!). I was once on top of what WAR crunched but those days… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
13 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Bob:  Your screed on Wallace had nothing to do with my closing remark. We’d sparred about WAR applications in the long ago past, so I took a preemptive shot, rather than waiting. PART ONE Ed Lopat versus Johan Santana: Both were successful playing for good teams. Lopat was successful playing for some bad White Sox teams before going to the Yanks, and Santana was successful for some bad Mets teams after leaving the Twins. IP 2439—2025 W 166—139 L 112-78 ERA 3.21—3.20 ERA+ 116—136 GS 318—284 CG 164—15 H/9 9.1—7.7 HR/9 0.7—1.0 SO% 8.4—24.1 BB% 6.4—6.9 pWAR/ IP: .0116—.0251 Question: Santana… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
12 days ago

A continuation of the above: PART THREE Dead ball circa 1890-1919 C. Young .0225 K. Nichols .0229 C. Mathewson .0209 E. Plank .0195 R. Waddell .0206 J. Mcginnity .0180 A. Joss .0205 M. Brown .0180 E. Walsh .0215 W. Johnson .0258 G. Alexander .0224 (Half dead ball, half live ball) Live ball circa 1920-1950 notables U. Shocker .0205 D. Vance .0212 L. Grove .0287 D. Dean .0223 (1967 IP) H. Brecheen .0217 (1907 IP) C. Hubbell .0192 H. Newhouser .0201 R Faber .0156 T. Lyons .0161 L. Gomez .0173 B. Feller .0170 R. Ruffing .0127 W. Ferrell .0186 W. Hoyt… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
12 days ago

No rip! This is great work, nsb. Here’s a first reaction: It appears from this analysis that the reason starter pWAR is distributed unevenly across eras may be, in part, because of shifts in the distribution of activity on the diamond. That is, in certain eras, because of the style of play, pitchers shoulder more of the work, and thus FIP grabs a larger share of the statistical credit. You essentially made this point in your Lopat/Santana contrast (what a well chosen match-up!). When Lopat spreads the work among fielders it may yield the same number of wins, but the… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
15 days ago
Reply to  Voomo

Using Voomo’s formula for the position players on the current ballot, this is what I get: 192.2 Utley (7839) 193.6 Rolen (8518) 222.3 Allen (7315) 262.1 Randolph (9461) 272.5 Minoso (7712 – MLB only; 290.9 [8232] total) 275.2 Wallace (9631) 283.9 Helton (9453) 307.1 Guerrero (9059) 421.0 Sheffield (10947) 499.6 Ortiz (10091) 509.7 Simmons (9685) I also tried to level the playing field and ran the figures using Utley’s PA total as a base. I looked for the season cutoff closest to 7839 PA and calculated the number: 180.0 Rolen (7919) 192.2 Utley [7839] 216.9 Helton (7764) 222.3 Allen [7315]… Read more »

Scary Tuna
Scary Tuna
15 days ago

Question #11: Not sure if he is first, but one of the three pitchers ahead of Rodríguez is Camilo Pascual, whose ERA+ improved 48 points from his first three seasons to his next three (72 to 120).

Doug
Doug
15 days ago
Reply to  Scary Tuna

Not Pascual. Someone much more recent.

Hint is he logged a bit more than half of Pascual’s innings and earned a bit more than half of Pascual’s WAR. Their career IP to WAR ratios are within 2% of each other.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
14 days ago
Reply to  Doug

Another pitcher ahead of Rodriguez, but not first, is Bill Swift who went from 86 to 132 for 46 points of improvement.

Scary Tuna
Scary Tuna
10 days ago
Reply to  Doug

I had considered this pitcher previously but apparently neglected to check his numbers: Jake Arrieta improved dramatically upon joining the Cubs once the Orioles traded him after 3-1/2 seasons. His ERA+ went from 79 in seasons 1-3 to 152 over the next three campaigns.

Doug
Doug
8 days ago
Reply to  Scary Tuna

Arrieta is correct. His 12-year career broken down into 3 year chunks looks like this:
Year 1-3, 79 ERA+
4-6, 152
7-9, 120
10-12, 77

So, a 30+ point change in ERA+ each time. Likely very few (if any) similar careers.

Doug
Doug
13 days ago

As it stands now, there are 7 players tied for the lead, but with only two votes. Rather than a 7-way runoff, I’m going to extend the election for another week in the hope that we will get a few more voters to weigh in.

Previously cast ballots may now be changed up until this coming Friday. Note also the addition of Brandon Webb to the ballot, whom I had missed in preparing the post. Thanks to Opal for pointing out this omission.

Voomo
Voomo
12 days ago
Reply to  Doug

Doug, as the site admin, do you have access to all the emails of folks who have voted over the years?
And if so, it it in integrity to message everybody that we are having an active vote? We dont have a “subscription” option on this site.

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
9 days ago
Reply to  Doug

Wow. Say hi to Andy! It’s been a long time.

Paul E
Paul E
13 days ago

Main: Allen, Rolen, Simmons
Secondary: Williams, Coveleski, Reggie Smith

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
12 days ago

Since we’ve got some extra time, I thought I’d do a version of something I used to do back in the day and list all of our candidates—on both lists—according to a formulation that’s a little different from usual. In this case, for position players, the candidates are listed according to PA/WAR (productivity)—lower numbers better, as in Voomo’s PA/WAA—and their career magnitude, expressed as “Irvins”—that is, their total PAs expressed as a multiple of Monte Irvin’s total PAs, the lowest magnitude on the list (this includes all of his PAs, including his ten Negro League seasons, but because the Negro… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
11 days ago
Reply to  Doug

Thanks, Doug. Didn’t think to add him.

The super-efficient pitchers are top relievers:

23……..0.6…Mariano
33……..0.4…Wagner (not Honus)

no statistician but
no statistician but
10 days ago

While I have some time, I’m going to point out something that Bob Eno, for all his enthusiasm about Bobby Wallace, has somehow not exactly downplayed, but mentioned only in passing. Wallace was a darn good hitter for his era. His 56.8 Batting WAR in the dead ball era is a commendable in ways we may not really grasp now, or not easily. He was anything but a power hitter, and was middling at best at working the pitcher for a walk. Nevertheless he had 6 top-10 finishes in the offensive WAR category and 8 top-10 finishes in RBIs. Hitting… Read more »

Doug
Doug
10 days ago

To your point, for the 16 years he played regularly (1897-1912), Wallace ranked 4th in oWAR, 3rd in WAR and 2nd in dWAR. So, not just a defensive wizard. Here’s the list.

no statistician but
no statistician but
10 days ago

I generally don’t vote, preferring to be a commentator, although I did vote once in order to break a senseless impending tie. That being said, I would like to vote for Wallace. Problem: the rules require a ballot of three choices, and I don’t have strong positive opinions about anyone else listed. Negative opinions, several: Simmons, Ortiz and all of the first timers except Santana. Sentimentally, I’d love to vote for Minoso, but I can’t see him as being any better than his contemporary Larry Doby, who isn’t even on the secondary ballot. I would vote for Ashburn, Irvin, or… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
10 days ago

I remember that previous departure from form, nsb, and I appreciate the vote for Wallace. I hadn’t registered that Doby was now absent. I’d like to propose a particular form of a Redemption Round that would apply to him. B-Ref has now incorporated Negro League stats with MLB ones (I don’t know how Stathead and FanGraphs handle this, cause my stat nerd days are over). The Negro League stats don’t represent full value because the records are only partial, but that may be ok because we don’t have clear measures of quality for Negro Leagues either. When we initially assessed… Read more »

Last edited 10 days ago by Bob Eno
Bob Eno
Bob Eno
8 days ago
Reply to  Doug

Yeah, after doing a check I see you’re right. Some guys I thought might do well didn’t have the MLB minimum for the Circle, and the Negro League WAR numbers are partial enough that they can only supplement a case. Paige and Campanella benefit a lot, but they’re already in. Irvin and Doby are the only ones I found where the numbers really make a difference for a qualifying player. Jim Gilliam might have, but his Negro League records are too fragmentary. (Maybe Hank Thompson.)

Anyway, Doby’s case for redemption is still strengthened by the new numbers.

Paul E
Paul E
9 days ago

Is #13 Clay Kershaw? He had a non-qualified season to start his career of 98 ERA+ and then reeled off seven in a row at a 162 clip

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
8 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

It looks like it’s Mordecai Brown.

Paul E
Paul E
8 days ago

My mistake. I took “modern era” to be post-deadball (1920-present) – as opposed to 1900-present.

Doug
Doug
8 days ago

Brown is correct. He extended that streak beginning his career to 8 straight qualified seasons (1903-10) with 125 ERA+.

Doug
Doug
8 days ago

One more quiz question on the board, concerning Dan Johnson. Not surprised it’s the last question, since this player’s career was so inconsequential it seems a miracle he lasted 10 seasons, especially since the last six were in his 30s. Johnson’s counting stats are underwhelming, as would be expected from a career of fewer than 500 games and 1500 AB. But he does seem to have had a few valuable skills, with a career 13% walk rate and 4% (of AB) homer rate, the latter translating into a blast every week to 10 days if he were playing everyday. He… Read more »

Last edited 8 days ago by Doug
Richard Chester
Richard Chester
8 days ago
Reply to  Doug

Ralph Houk spent 7 consecutive seasons with the Yankees with fewer than 30 games played and he had 6 consecutive seasons with fewer than 10 games played.

Paul E
Paul E
8 days ago

Funny, the first guy I checked was Charlie Silvera. Charlie got some WS $$ 1949-1953

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
8 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

During Silvera’s tenure with the Yankees (1948-1956) his career BA was .291. The only AL catcher with a higher BA with at least 400 plate appearances was Yogi with .294.

Voomo
Voomo
4 days ago
Reply to  Doug

15 years at AAA. Over 5,000 PA. .302 / .376 / .495 / .871

Morman must have wondered what coulda been had he been given the chance.

He was blocked in Chicago by a rapidly declining Greg Walker, blocked in KC by the tail end of Brett, then continued to mash at AAA, but even the expansion Marlins didnt see investing time into a mid-30s journeyman…

Scary Tuna
Scary Tuna
7 days ago

Main: Wallace, Randolph, Santana.
Secondary: Ashburn, Coveleski, Irvin.

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
6 days ago

It looks to me as though Wallace has entered the Circle and we’ve likely completed our work with regard to the Deadball Era.

Doug
Doug
5 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Perhaps we’re through.

There are still a few players from the dead ball era that could perhaps be considered in our next redemption round. See the lists below:
Everyday players
Pitchers

Voomo
Voomo
5 days ago
Reply to  Doug

Half a dozen guys on those lists with as much argument as most of our current group.

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
5 days ago
Reply to  Voomo

I agree, Voomo. I somehow had a comment deleted just now, but the gist was that although there are viable candidates on Doug’s list, the nature of the conversation here has changed. It used to be that the old-time players came to our attention in the context of their birth-year pool. Wallace came up when HHS was focused, round after round, on late 19th century / early 20th century players, so Wallace’s career had context. And conversation was much more detailed then. I went back to look at the 1873 round when Wallace appeared, that was in 2015. You were… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
3 days ago

I’m kind of lukewarm about the prospect of an additional number of, at best, borderline names on the COG candidate role. Fred Clarke is actually a superior candidate to any we now have, according to YT, but otherwise . . . ? In its inception, the COG was supposed to be more selective than the HOF. That’s one point. A well-known weaker one—but I’m mentioning it anyway—is that the HOF has done a miserable job in its selection, which irks the heck out of me. This is no solution, but I’m going to name the players currently in neither Circle… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
3 days ago

To respond to your last question, nsb, and granting your premise that all of these players deserve to be in the Hall (which is reasonable), I wonder whether a contributing reason is the growth in the overall size of the player pool. In 1960 there were 16 teams; by 1978 there were 28. That’s a pretty sudden increase of ~75% in the number of regulars playing. I think Hall judgments are, in practice, about both absolute and relative quality, and the relative elements kept many BBWAA voters from expanding their ballots towards the full ten available slots. It’s only recently… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
3 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Bob, Not to be that guy but, the NL didn’t expand to 14 teams until FLA and COLO were brought in 1993….. I can’t disagree with NSB’s picks. Just wondering if Boyer is on the list if Allen (or Callison) wins the NL MVP award as a rookie in 1964 in lieu of Ken. You know, if Mauch doesn’t panic and pitch Bunning and Short every other day, the Phillies probably take the pennant and Kenny finishes behind Callison or Allen. Also, without the advanced defensive metrics we have today, is Hernandez considered a Hall of Famer by the balloteers… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
3 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

Right, Paul. I was moving fast and my mind is slow. So a ~62.5% increase.

My girlfriend in ’64 was from Philly. Man, that was painful! In the losing streak Callison batted .275 and Allen .415, but Callison surely did lose to Boyer because of the streak. (The entire MVP vote looks awful, though, as MVP votes sometimes do. You may not like WAR, but the fact that Mays had almost twice the WAR of both Boyer and Callison, the 1-2 finishers, says a lot.)

Paul E
Paul E
3 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Yes, Callison (20) and Boyer (22) had about 40% of the Rbat of Mays (53), Allen (52), and Santo (52). You really gotta believe in the power of the glove to justify Boyer and Callison as 1-2 in the MVP voting. Like, was Boyer getting to 6 batted balls/9 innings? hahaha. Did Callison throw out 40 baserunners? They were both great fielders but, obviously, pennant standings and RBI won the prize

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
3 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

Yup. Boyer was particularly known for his fielding. It surely made a difference in the voting. As it happens, both Boyer at third and Callison in right had 1.0 dWAR that year. Fine figures. Mays’s dWAR in center that year was 2.0 (but who’s counting?).

Basically, Mays won two MVPs instead of ten because his consistency blinded voters. If Mays had had some bad years to highlight his good ones he’d have won more. He led the Majors in WAR eight times, and six of those were with >10.0.

Paul E
Paul E
2 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

same deal with Mantle. Best player in the AL from about 1954 – 1964 and won 3 MVP’s. Mays definitely should have won in 1962 but sportwriters were thrilled with Wills stealing bases

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
2 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

Well . . . Mantle was terrific. But he had a total of 5 seasons above 7.0 WAR (1955-61) to Mays’s 13 (1954-66), and Mantle led the AL 6 times while Mays led the Majors 8 times (with 2 more in just the NL). Yet Mantle out MVP’d Mays. The BBWAA ignored one of Mantle’s >10.0 WAR seasons because Maris hit 61 HRs, just as Wills’ 104 SB season put Mays’s >10.0 WAR in the shade. But the writers passed Mays by for three other such seasons (all Majors-leading). Here’s a fun fact I just discovered. Mays finally won his… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
2 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

I think we may have already had the Mantle vs. Mays discussion a few years back. IIRC, I believe the Runs Created per 27 Outs Made favored Mantle to such an extent that you may have been incredulous? A team of Mantles versus Willies? On another note, Mantle has three seasons of oRAR of 108 or greater; Mays has zero greater than 90….But, alas, Mays had the good fortune of never being seriously injured. Mantle’s injuries were legendary

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
1 day ago
Reply to  Paul E

You may be right, Paul. I don’t recall (correctly or incorrectly), but it sounds like me. And it’s absolutely true that the endurance of Mantle’s dominance was limited by his injuries. Mays stayed healthy (alas?–I was a Brooklyn fan and I was glad to admire Mays), although he lost more than a season and a half to military service. But I don’t think the comparison holds up in the context of the MVP discussion. MVPs are about total contribution, not hitting alone. Mantle was a below average center fielder with only five seasons of positive dWAR and never above 1.1;… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
1 day ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Replying to my own message because one point really has been bothering me. I wrote, “Mantle was a below average center fielder . . .” Mantle’s Rfield and dWAR numbers are negative, even if you isolate his peak career (1952-64). He places in the top-ten in Total Zone runs for OF only once–5th in 1955–while Mays is a perennial top-five, second lifetime in CF to Andrew Jones (Mantle isn’t on the top-400 list). But here’s the thing: I saw Mantle play dozens of times and he was terrific in center field. When I report that he was a below-average fielder… Read more »

Voomo
Voomo
21 hours ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

For this reason, I have a hard time buying into defensive arguments for old time players based upon the advanced numbers we have, which are mostly based on total chances, total put outs.
These involve some factors beyond the player’s control.

I trust Bob’s eye test more than DRS.

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
18 hours ago
Reply to  Voomo

Yeah, but then I lose the argument!

I’ve worn glasses since I was eight. Maybe that was actually Bauer. The sun was in my eyes.