Walking less when hitting well

The first season of the rest of Adam Dunn’s life begins today. Following a year of historic struggles where he hit .159 with an OPS+ of 56, Dunn and his Chicago White Sox start a new season today against the Texas Rangers. By all accounts, the embattled first baseman looks to have a new lease on his baseball life. Dunn played well through spring training, and rookie manager Robin Ventura told the Chicago Tribune that Dunn will hit third thanks to his ability to get on base.

Seemingly, there’s no direction but up for Adam Dunn in 2012, though whether he can rebound at the plate remains to be seen.  If history is any judge, though, Dunn’s best course of action might be to swing away. Throughout baseball history, many great hitters walked less than their lifetime rates among their top five OPS+ seasons.

It’s an odd feat, walking less when hitting well, but at quick glance, more hitters have done it than not. Alex Rodriguez has done it. So have Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez, and Ichiro Suzuki. It was even accomplished by the infinitely patient Rogers Hornsby, whose advice on hitting to a minor league Ted Williams was, “Wait for a good pitch.” Perhaps Hornsby was drawing on his experience as a young hitter in 1922 when he hit .401, posted an OPS+ of 207, and walked 9.23 percent of his plate appearances, the latter less than his lifetime rate of 10.95 percent.

Rodriguez is an interesting case. He’s exceeded his lifetime walk rate of 10.96 percent three of his top five OPS+ seasons. But then there’s 1996, when a young Rodriguez was on a Seattle Mariners team that hit .287 with Ken Griffey Jr. and Jay Buhner each supplying north of 40 home runs and 130 RBI and Edgar Martinez hitting .327. Hitting an American League-best .358 in 1996 with an OPS+ of 160, Rodriguez walked 59 times in 677 plate appearances with just one intentional pass all season. And in his first year with the Texas Rangers, Rodriguez walked 10.24 percent of his plate appearances.

Then there are the players who make no sense whatsoever with their hitting and walking. Willie Wilson walked just over 5 percent of his plate appearances lifetime, but hit .332 in 1982 walking 4.19 percent and .326 in 1980 walking 3.76 percent. Playing on the first Mariners team without Rodriguez in 2001 when he presumably could’ve been pitched around, Suzuki walked 4.07 percent of his at-bats, below his lifetime rate of 6.15 percent. Consider, a .350 batting average and just 30 walks for Suzuki that year in 738 plate appearances. Such numbers boggle the sabermetric mind.

To be sure, some of the greatest hitters in baseball history walked more when hitting well. Williams, Babe Ruth, and Barry Bonds all walked above their lifetime rates of roughly 20 percent per plate appearance for their top five OPS+ seasons. Bonds was essentially a different hitter in the first and second parts of his career, walking 16.75 percent of his plate appearances from 1986-1998, 26.65 percent from 1999-2007, and 20.29 percent overall for his career. No matter. His walk rate for his best years in each section surpass his rate, 20.75 percent in 1992 for instance and 37.6 percent in 2004.

Dunn may be no Bonds or Rodriguez at the plate. But it will be interesting to see which player his walk rate comes closer to this year and what it will mean for his hitting numbers.

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Mike L
Mike L
12 years ago

I think Barry Bonds is an outlier on these things. In the back part of his career, not only was he supposedly juicing, but he was wearing what amounted to body armor and crowding the plate as well. The pitcher had a very small zone to throw to, and many of them just didn’t. But your comment about Dunn is interesting, because I remember Bill James talking about Paul O’Neill after he got traded from the Reds to the Yankees, saying O’Neill (who hit .246 his last season with the Reds) would benefit from swinging at the first pitch-not exactly… Read more »

Neil L.
Neil L.
12 years ago

“It’s an odd feat, walking less when hitting well”

Graham, I agree about it being odd. One would assume that seeing the ball well, as measured by a high-OPS season, would entail both making lots of contact and laying off the borderline pitches, thereby drawing walks.

Perhaps the high OPS in below-average-walk seasons is due more to extra-base hits obtained by the agressive, free-swinging approach.

Either way, there is much food for thought in your post, Graham. I want to think about it more and comment again.

Hartvig
Hartvig
12 years ago
Reply to  Neil L.

I’m trying to reason my way thru this and it’s giving me a headache. I assume that switching leagues and unfamiliarity with the pitchers was the initial trigger to his slump but with his age and bulk you can’t rule out loss of bats speed as a factor. Either way, I think it eventually became a psychological issue as well. Assuming he can rid himself of his demons and get his confidence back I can see a couple of reasons where being more aggressive at the plate might help him. If he has lost bat speed then guessing more earlier… Read more »

John Autin
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Hartvig

As someone with plenty of first-hand experience of choking in the clutch, I’m always surprised that there aren’t more first-year-free-agent flameouts like Dunn last year.

I can only imagine the agony he went through last year. I hope it got him to a place where he can say “what the f***” — I put a lot of faith in the lessons I learned from Risky Business. 🙂

ATarwerdi96
ATarwerdi96
12 years ago

And, of course, Dunn hits another opening day home run to start this season.

Neil L.
Neil L.
12 years ago
Reply to  ATarwerdi96

Tarwerdi, see the previous blog for lots of discussion about Adam Dunn and opening day.

Timmy Pea
Timmy Pea
12 years ago

1 walk in the Sox/Rangers game. 14 walks in the Yankees/Rays game. Great start for the Rangers and Rays today!!!!

Neil L.
Neil L.
12 years ago
Reply to  Timmy Pea

Timmy Pea are you the former Timmy P? The Timmy P. who engaged in legendary dust-ups with Twisto?

If so, Timmy, I feel completely at home! 🙂

Does Johnny Twisto post in HHS?

Timmy Pea
Timmy Pea
12 years ago
Reply to  Neil L.

I have not seen Twisto at this site, and I am the same person that posted at B-Ref.

Andy
Admin
12 years ago
Reply to  Timmy Pea

I talk to JT occasionally and he’s been too busy to read any baseball sites. Hopefully he’ll be back now that the season is here.

Neil L.
Neil L.
12 years ago
Reply to  Andy

Andy, upon reflection, I realize how much I liked Twisto’s baseball intellect combined with his “tough love” toward sloppy thinkers. He used to (gently) slap me around in discussions. 🙂

I’m not one to talk after a five month BB-Ref/HHS sabbatical, but could JT’s arm be gently (no pun intended) twisted?

Neil L.
Neil L.
12 years ago
Reply to  Neil L.

Actually, Timmy, I just answered my own question by looking at your avatar.

That’s Lou Rawls …… I remember now!

So as a White Sox watcher, where do you weigh in on whether Adam Dunn will have a rebound year?

Timmy Pea
Timmy Pea
12 years ago
Reply to  Neil L.

Adam Dunn? Well psychologically he had to have taken a beating last year. Let’s hope the even keel of Venura helps him out. I hope he does well. I don’t think the Sox will be very good this year though.

Neil L.
Neil L.
12 years ago

I don’t know if it’s because today is Good Friday, Graham, but I’m surprised there are so few comments on, in my opinion, a very well-written post. So here is my two cents. Adam Dunn’s career walks as a percentage of PA is a whopping 16.2%. I’m surprised it is that high, given his propensity to strike out. No one has a Barry Bonds-like career BB %’s of 20.3%, but I didn’t realize Dunn took that many walks until I checked his stats. His BB rate in 2011, his nightmare year, was 15.1 %, already slightly below his career average.… Read more »

Neil L.
Neil L.
12 years ago
Reply to  Graham

Graham, it takes courage to put your baseball thoughts in writing on a blog where anybody can throw mud at them. I haven’t gone back to look at your previous posts, but if this one is representative of your work, then, well done! I’ll wave my pom-poms for you.

bstar
bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  Graham

Graham, great article and I would chalk up the low traffic today to the start of the baseball season and/or the Masters running congruently. “Caustic” is a great word to describe the typical baseball site, and it is very pleasant to find one with such a different vibe.

After spending most of this off-season on another site where “snark” reigns supreme(it’s often hard to even make a point without sinking to that level), I finally found this place. To be honest, I’m still a work in progress on the non-causticity part.

Neil L.
Neil L.
12 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Bstar, see comment #32, but thanks for being transparent about having to bite your tongue sometimes.

I don’t remember your posts from last year on the B-Ref blogs, but you are the second leading commenter in here.

From what I’ve read in three days, your comments seem even-handed and tolerant. I guess there are always the happy-face and sad-face emoticons to sprinkle in one’s posts liberally.

kds
kds
12 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Bstar, you are doing fine. If you don’t want to be caustic, just don’t lye. ;()

Neil L.
Neil L.
12 years ago
Reply to  Graham

The civility combined with baseball intelligence of the old BB-Ref crowd was what I found appealing about that site. For the most part trolls and rude, sarcastic posters were called out by the rest of community.

That same tone seems to have carried over to HHS, although I am still a newb here.

The insult-slinging, dime-a-dozen, fan boards don’t really advance my understanding of baseball, whereas intelligent debate, even difference of opinion, does.

Steven
Steven
12 years ago
Reply to  Neil L.

I agree, completely.

John Autin
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Neil L.

So Neil, how about your thoughts on the Jays’ 2012 outlook? They certainly were the buzz of spring training.

Neil L.
Neil L.
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Thanks for asking, JA. Trying to strike a balance between being a fan and being objective, I think cautiously optimistic would sum up my outlook. You always see the warts on your own team and forget that other teams have them too. A full season of Brett Lawrie is going to be fun to watch and the bullpen looks rock-solid. Bautista is the real deal. Things looked a lot brighter in the spring when Dustin McGowan was throwing smoke without foot problems and Adam Lind’s back was healthy. Lind’s bat is the key to protecting Bautista in the lineup. There… Read more »

John Autin
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Neil L.

I do like the Tigers to win the Central, though I don’t think Fielder makes them notably better than last year’s crew. I won’t make any predictions beyond getting into the playoffs; after that, we’ll have to see if they get matched up again with a manager who won’t use his best relievers in crunch time. 🙂 With the Mets, it will be like following a minor-league team. I don’t mean they’re that bad; I only mean that they are so certain not to contend that the game results take a back seat to following the development of players and… Read more »

Timmy Pea
Timmy Pea
12 years ago

Ian Kinsler! What a great day for him. I almost forgot what a great season he had last year because I got so caught up in Micheal Young piling up hits and RBI’s. Kinsler walked a career high 89 times last year, career high in homers with 32 and he stole 30 out of 34 bases. All with a .255 average. I’ll take it and watch out for the Rangers.

Neil L.
Neil L.
12 years ago

All dressed up and nowhere to go with this one, but has anyone else noticed the number of staff “aces” that got roughed up in their season openers?

Gallardo, Romero, Sabathia, Shields….. although Halladay, Verlander, Lester and others preformed well, it seems surprising to me at the amount of offense against good pitchers in the early going.

Timmy Pea
Timmy Pea
12 years ago
Reply to  Neil L.

I did notice, 14 walks in that Rays/Yankees game.

Neil L.
Neil L.
12 years ago
Reply to  Neil L.

I should have added Linecum to the list.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
12 years ago

Since I have taken advantage of the free subscription to the PI index for a couple of weeks I can now extract stats more easily. There have been 116 players with a BB/PA ratio of less than 5% (3000 AB minimum). Of them only 7 have lifetime BAs of more than .300. They are Lew Fonseca (the movie guy) with .316, Stufy McInnis, .307, Freddy Leach, .307, Ralph Garr, .306, Eddie Brown, .303, Sammy Hale, .302, and Ethan Allen, .300. Lowest percentage on the list is our old friend Bill Bergen with 2.73%. Current players on the list are Reed… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
12 years ago

Should be 3000 PA minimum.

John Autin
Editor
12 years ago

Anyone have a sense of how much year-to-year fluctuation there is in individual walk rates for long-career everyday players? I know I don’t.

John Autin
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

F’rinstance … Ichiro’s career average is 28 unintentional walks per 700 PAs, with a high rate of 39 in 2002 (.321 BA) and a low of 19 in ’09 (.352 BA). That walk-rate variation is big in percentage terms, but in raw numbers it’s just about +/- 10 walks per year — essentially random.

Hartvig
Hartvig
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

I’ve often wondered that myself. You do see extreme cases where someone must have changed their entire approach to hitting (Eddie Joost being probably the extreme example but it even appears that Willie Mays did it towards the end of his career when he couldn’t get around on the fastball anymore) but even someone like Richie Ashburn doubled his walk rate from one season to the next only to fall back significantly 2 years later only to rebound again the following year. At the very least in his case the difference seems to be at least as random as fluctuations… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

How about this odd-ball stat for Babe Ruth. In 1929 he had an OBP of .493 with just 72 BB in 135 games. Compare that to his lifetime 162 game stats of .474 OBP and 133 BB. That total of 72 BB projects to 86 for a 162 game season.

Brendan
Brendan
12 years ago

Great food for thought, Graham. You point out that great hitters such as Ted Williams walked more in their better hitting years. I suspect this is something not limited to the greats, but is true of most players. In general, there is good reason to expect that walking and hitting well correlate. Walking contributes to OBP (and thus to OPS and OPS+), so the simple-minded expectation is that as BB/PA goes up, so will OPS+. The following is by no means a thorough analysis, but here are a couple lines of evidence. First, when comparing contemporary players, BB/PA and OPS+… Read more »

Mike L
Mike L
12 years ago

You might add to the perspective if you analyzed results on three ball counts and two strike counts, the only counts where not swinging results in a guaranteed outcome.

Neil L.
Neil L.
12 years ago

Isn’t the fundamental reason this issue of high-OPS low-BB seasons vs. high-OPS low-BB seasons is such a head-scratcher, is the fact that it pits two of the elements of OPS against each other? Is it really possible for a hitter to consciously favor hits over walks or walks over hits? Both are required for a high-OPS year. That is the subtlety of OPS as a stat. I may be stating the obvious, but the only way to impact one’s OPS is to hit more XBH, specifically home runs and this usually comes at the expense of more strikeouts and presumably… Read more »

Mike L
Mike L
12 years ago
Reply to  Neil L.

I’m not sure I totally agree with the statement “the only way to impact one’s OPS is to hit more XBH, specifically home runs and this usually comes at the expense of more strikeouts and presumably fewer walks”.

I think you get hits by making contact and putting the ball in play, but you get extra-base hits by hitting the ball hard. That often means waiting for a pitch you can drive, which tends to take you deeper into counts and would increase both strikeouts and walks.

Neil L.
Neil L.
12 years ago
Reply to  Mike L

You’re right to disagree with my statement, Mike L. What I meant to say was the quickest way to impact your OPS is to hit more home runs. However, I believe that lengthening your swing and starting the bat earlier so as to hit the ball out of the yard does reduce walks as it prevents you from checking your swing on a ball that breaks out of the strike zone. So I stand by my belief that consciously trying to hit more extra-base hits as opposed to taking your regular “career” swing probably does reduce walks. The batter would… Read more »