Arenado Blasts Off

Nolan-ArenadoGoogle translates “arenado” as Spanish for “sandblasted”. Leaving aside the sand, Rockie third baseman Nolan Arenado had a breakout year in 2015, recording one of the more impressive under-the-radar seasons in recent memory, leading the NL with 42 big blasts, and leading the majors with 130 RBI and 354 total bases.

More after the jump.

Arenado’s breakout year came in his third full season, continuing a trend of increasing seasonal totals in R, 2B, HR, RBI, BB, TB, WAR, BA, SLG, OPS and OPS+. That trend was highlighted by Arenado’s HR and RBI totals, each more than double his 2014 marks.

Despite his big offensive season in 2015, Arenado actually recorded higher Rfield than Rbat last year, continuing the strong defensive play that has seen him record at least 1.9 dWAR in each of his three major league seasons. That balanced contribution of offense and defense makes Arenado the youngest of only 6 players to record 6 oWAR and 6 dWAR over the first three seasons of a career.

Rk Player WAR/pos oWAR dWAR From To Age G PA BA OBP SLG OPS Pos Tm
1 Snuffy Stirnweiss 18.5 14.2 6.4 1943 1945 24-26 389 1766 .297 .377 .436 .814 *4/6H NYY
2 Austin Jackson 15.4 10.5 6.0 2010 2012 23-25 441 1960 .280 .346 .416 .761 *8/HD DET
3 Nolan Arenado 13.6 6.5 7.7 2013 2015 22-24 401 1646 .281 .318 .500 .818 *5/H COL
4 Glenn Wright 13.2 8.3 7.8 1924 1926 23-25 425 1815 .300 .331 .454 .786 *6/H5 PIT
5 Phil Rizzuto 12.0 6.8 8.1 1941 1946 23-28 403 1681 .283 .334 .363 .697 *6/H NYY
6 Dave Bancroft 10.7 7.1 7.1 1915 1917 24-26 422 1777 .237 .326 .307 .633 *6/4H7 PHI
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/2/2016.

 

Part of the reason Arenado’s exploits didn’t attract more attention had to do with the continued success of high profile phenoms Bryce Harper and Mike Trout. Those two also smacked 40 round-trippers last year making 2015 only the second season (and the first in 60 years) with three under-25 players reaching that home run plateau.

Rk Year #Matching
1 2015 3 Nolan Arenado / Bryce Harper / Mike Trout
2 1955 3 Ernie Banks / Eddie Mathews / Willie Mays
3 2004 2 Adam Dunn / Albert Pujols
4 2000 2 Troy Glaus / Alex Rodriguez
5 1999 2 Vladimir Guerrero / Alex Rodriguez
6 1993 2 Juan Gonzalez / Ken Griffey
7 1954 2 Eddie Mathews / Willie Mays
8 1929 2 Chuck Klein / Mel Ott
9 2007 1 Prince Fielder
10 2003 1 Albert Pujols
11 2001 1 Troy Glaus
12 1998 1 Alex Rodriguez
13 1994 1 Ken Griffey
14 1992 1 Juan Gonzalez
15 1988 1 Jose Canseco
16 1987 1 Mark McGwire
17 1972 1 Johnny Bench
18 1970 1 Johnny Bench
19 1969 1 Reggie Jackson
20 1966 1 Dick Allen
21 1961 1 Orlando Cepeda
22 1959 1 Harmon Killebrew
23 1958 1 Rocky Colavito
24 1957 1 Hank Aaron
25 1956 1 Mickey Mantle
26 1953 1 Eddie Mathews
27 1947 1 Ralph Kiner
28 1937 1 Joe DiMaggio
29 1936 1 Hal Trosky
30 1932 1 Jimmie Foxx
31 1927 1 Lou Gehrig
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/2/2016.

 

Eddie Mathews is conspicuous in the list above, with three 40 home run seasons before age 25, tied with Alex Rodriguez for the most ever. Arenado’s 354 total bases last year are the second highest total by an under 25 third baseman, trailing only Mathews’ total of 363 (his career high) in 1953.

The 31 years represented above also, by chance, encompass 31 players with a 40 home run season before age 25. Of those 31 players, Arenado joins the group of five below to debut aged 22 or older.

Rk Player HR From To Age ▾ G PA AB BA OBP SLG OPS Pos Tm
1 Chuck Klein 54 1928 1929 23-24 213 954 869 .357 .404 .634 1.038 *9/8H PHI
2 Ralph Kiner 74 1946 1947 23-24 296 1245 1067 .282 .383 .541 .924 *7/8H PIT
3 Ernie Banks 65 1953 1955 22-24 318 1335 1224 .286 .337 .513 .850 *6 CHC
4 Nolan Arenado 70 2013 2015 22-24 401 1646 1534 .281 .318 .500 .818 *5/H COL
5 Mark McGwire 84 1986 1988 22-24 324 1334 1160 .271 .356 .541 .897 *3/5H9 OAK
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/2/2016.

 

The other four all reached 300 home runs for their careers, though each of them had career totals through age 24 of fewer games and PA and higher OBP, SLG and OPS scores than Arenado’s marks.

Arenado is also part of another sub-group of 5 players from the group of 31. This bunch added 40 doubles to go with their 40 home run season before age 25.

Rk Player Year HR 2B Age Tm G PA AB R H 3B RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Nolan Arenado 2015 42 43 24 COL 157 665 616 97 177 4 130 34 110 .287 .323 .575 .898 *5/H
2 Albert Pujols 2004 46 51 24 STL 154 692 592 133 196 2 123 84 52 .331 .415 .657 1.072 *3/DH
3 Albert Pujols 2003 43 51 23 STL 157 685 591 137 212 1 124 79 65 .359 .439 .667 1.106 *73/HD
4 Hal Trosky 1936 42 45 23 CLE 151 671 629 124 216 9 162 36 58 .343 .382 .644 1.026 *3/4
5 Chuck Klein 1929 43 45 24 PHI 149 679 616 126 219 6 145 54 61 .356 .407 .657 1.065 *98
6 Lou Gehrig 1927 47 52 24 NYY 155 717 584 149 218 18 173 109 84 .373 .474 .765 1.240 *3
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/2/2016.

 

Arenado’s 43 doubles last year raised his career total to 106, putting Arenado in, you guessed it, another group of 5 players to debut at age 22 and record 100 doubles through age 24.

Rk Player 2B From To G PA AB R H 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS Pos Tm
1 Al Simmons 127 1924 1926 452 1986 1831 281 635 31 51 341 113 150 .347 .386 .534 .920 *8/79 PHA
2 Evan Longoria 121 2008 2010 430 1840 1606 263 455 7 82 302 190 386 .283 .361 .521 .881 *5/HD6 TBR
3 Nick Markakis 116 2006 2008 465 1949 1723 275 516 6 59 261 203 297 .299 .375 .476 .851 *9/7H8D BAL
4 Robinson Cano 116 2005 2007 414 1728 1621 233 509 12 48 237 73 207 .314 .346 .489 .835 *4/HD NYY
5 Nolan Arenado 106 2013 2015 401 1646 1534 204 431 10 70 243 82 240 .281 .318 .500 .818 *5/H COL
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/2/2016.

 

Time will tell whether or not Arenado’s breakout year was just that, rather than a Coors-induced anomaly. But, there’s no denying the wealth of quality players, many of them all-time greats, among the lists above, making Arenado definitely someone to watch more closely in the years ahead.

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Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
8 years ago

Some of this definitely falls into the “Let’s make a list” fallacy that Bill James wrote about in “Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame?” Nonetheless, it’s impressive company Arenado’s keeping, even if he’s clearly the worst of the groups he’s in. Frankly, if he goes on to be a Nick Markakis or a Hal Trosky, he should be happy. I know I would be!

Mark
Mark
8 years ago

Darnit, my man Andrew McCutchen just misses the last list, with 95 doubles from his debut (at 22) to age 24 — darn the Pirates and their thrifty ways, not calling up prospects till post-Super2 June!

David P
David P
8 years ago

Doug: How could you write an article about someone named Nolan and not mention “The Only Nolan”? http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nolanth01.shtml On a more serious note, I think Nolan’s a perfect example of the divide between the traditional stats types and the advanced stats types. A traditional stats person will look at Nolan’s big 2015 season and insist that he made a massive improvement from 2014 (more then doubled his homeruns and RBIs). Whereas an advanced stats person will see only moderate improvement from 2014 to 2015. e.g. His OPS+ only went from 115 to 124 and his Rbat only went from 9… Read more »

bstar
bstar
8 years ago
Reply to  David P

Arenado’s Rbat is low because his career 108 OPS+ overrates him. He’s one of those guys who has good power but draws very few walks. His career wRC+ from Fangraphs is 104 instead of 108. In this sense, he’s the second coming of Dante Bichette – excellent Triple Crown numbers which don’t translate to many batting runs due to park effects and poor plate discipline.

Also, Fangraphs’ UZR isn’t as big of a fan of Arenado’s defense as B-Ref’s DRS.

FanGraphs: +32 Rfield, 9.9 career fWAR
B-Reference: +64 Rfield, 13.6 career bWAR

Doug
Doug
8 years ago
Reply to  bstar

To your point, Arenado’s 124 OPS+ last year is the second lowest in a 40 HR, 120 RBI season, better only than the 121 mark by Tony Armas in 1984. Among 350 TB seasons, that 124 mark is 3rd worst, after Jimmy Rollins (119 in 2007) and Nomar Garciaparra (123 in 1997). But, given that he was just 24 and this was his first season putting all the pieces together (more or less), I’m inclined to cut him some slack and see if he can’t learn to be a bit more selective. Having only 110 strikeouts despite a low walk… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
8 years ago
Reply to  David P

Agree with bstar; Nolan Arenado seems to resemble Dante Bichette and in particular Vinny Castilla (also a third baseman), as a good-but-not-great player whose Triple Crown stats are quite skewed by playing half his games at Coors Field. Like Castilla and Bichette, he has excellent power and a good to very good BA, which is negated quite a bit by a low walk rate and Coors Field being a pronounced hitters park. Look at his 2015 OBA of .323. That’s THREE – TWO – THREE, where the Rockies team had an OBA at Coors of .352. The entire NL OBA… Read more »

David P
David P
8 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

“If Arenado can get his walk rate to about average” Unfortunately, that seems quite unlikely. I did a quick search, finding 20 players who since 1962 have had between 1300 to 2000 PA’s by age 24 and had a walk/PA less than 5%. Of those 20 players, only 5 of them ever had a season of even 50 walks. And none ever had a season of 70 walks! Here are the players who managed the 50+ walk seasons: Nomar (51, 61) Vernon Wells (50, 51, 54) Juan Samuel (51, 60) Al Oliver (61) Warren Cromartie (51, 69) So it seems… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
8 years ago
Reply to  David P

David P – Yeah, that thought occurred to me shortly after I hit send – once you’ve established a low walk rate over your first several full years, it’s unlikely you’ll improve your BB % to even league-average. I know it’s well before your cut-off date of 1962, but I though of two all-time great hitters who started out with very low walk percentages in their first full year, but were about league-average over their entire career: – TY COBB, 1907: 24 BB in 642 PA// a career .067 ‘isolated’ (BB + HBP) rate vs. a league .068 ‘isolated’ (BB… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
8 years ago

Well, I suppose we have to look at his splits:

.307 / .344 / .556 / .899
.254 / .291 / .442 / .733

bstar
bstar
8 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

…and those slash line stats translate to: Arenado home: 110 wRC+ Arenado road: 97 wRC+ Those are park-adjusted. Not to open a can of worms, but I think this is sort of why people on both sides of the Larry Walker argument are often talking past one another. One side thinks we’re simply talking about unadjusted home vs. road OPS while the other is saying there’s a big difference in performance even AFTER park-adjusting the stats (OPS+/wRC+). And here’s the real poster child for Coors-inflated stats, Carlos Gonzalez. Cargo home: 137 wRC+ Cargo road: 101 wRC+ On the road Cargo’s… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
8 years ago

Here’s a question:

Has anyone studied the H/R performance of position players traded from Colorado to other teams to see how well they adjust? Larry Walker, in his brief time with the Cardinals, seems to have adjusted pretty well, given that his career was winding down, but for various reasons one can’t assume that to be characteristic.

Joseph
Joseph
8 years ago

“Coors-induced anomaly” is a bit ambiguous. Beer or ballpark? 😉