Here’s a simple calculation that reveals lots of interesting stuff. Using B-R.com’s new option to limit searches to players who qualify as rookies (using the modern definition only), it’s easy to find what fraction of players each season who qualified for the batting title also qualified as rookies.

This is what the data looks like:

The overall trend is clear. In the early part of the 20th century, about 15% of full-time players were rookies. There is an uptick in 1914 as the Federal League was formed and lots of new players were brought in. In the late 1910s, nearly no rookies played full seasons but by the 1920s the rate was back up to about 12%. When World War II came around, the rate spiked as a lot of established players left for military service. There was a spike from 1952 into 1953, due to the Korean War. The rate spiked even further in 1954, but I’m not sure why, as that war was already over and guys like Ted Williams and Willy Mays were back.

By the 1960s, the rate of rookies dropped down to about 9%. In the 1970s, it went even lower, plummeting to an all-time low in 1979. From 1980 on, the rate has been relatively consistent around 5%. Note a few upticks in expansion years of 1969, 1977, and 1993.

I wonder why the fraction of rookies has dropped gradually over time? September call-ups probably have something to do with it–more players qualifying as rookies before playing a full qualifying season. There may just also be less playing of rookies full time–for example fewer rookies winning jobs in spring training.

What else can we surmise from this data?

“Well … yes, and here we go again.”

Previously, I discussed the platooning of Stan Musial in his rookie year, noting that the 1942 Cards faced a lot of lefty starting pitchers.

I didn’t know the half of it.

In the course of Musial’s career, the Cardinals faced a lefty starter in 40% of their games — a rate 38% above the rest of the National League.

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This post is for voting and discussion of the eighth round of voting for the Circle of Greats, which adds players born in 1961. Rules and lists are after the jump. Continue reading →

Not only did Roger Clemens gain induction into the Circle of Greats this round by a wide margin (appearing on 43 of 71 ballots), his manner on the mound is memorialized in song before every major league game. More on Roger and the voting after you click on the “Read the Rest” gizmo. Continue reading →

Soon after I posted my piece about the Hall of Could’ve Been, commenters started naming players who fit the title of the Hall better than most of the players I included.  Herb Score, Tony Conigliaro, Dickie Thon, J.R. Richard, Pete Reiser, and many other players had practically unlimited potential, only to see their careers derailed, usually by injury.  The two sets of criteria I established put the spotlight on a few players who could have been much more than they were and a few who actually did achieve greatness, but who just happened to have the right mix of single-season and career WAR to make the cut.

The players I listed may fit better in the Hall of Peak Value than in the Hall of Could’ve Been.

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“Who?”, you say. If somehow you have never heard of Jeremy Sowers (or don’t remember him), he was a bottom-of-the-rotation guy for the Indians in the last decade. Got off to a real nice start in a half-year rookie campaign in 2006. In 14 starts, Sowers went 7-4 with 126 ERA+ and a couple of shutouts. He wasn’t striking out many (3.6 SO/9) but made up for it with unusually good control for a young pitcher (2.0 BB/9).

Unfortunately, the promise of that first season was not fulfilled, as Sowers’ control started to fail him. Not horrendously, but it’s a fine line between success and failure when you’re not striking out many. The result was ERA+ scores for his next three seasons all on the wrong side of the century mark (actually, not even close to that mark). Sowers hasn’t pitched in the majors since losing to Dice-K and the Red Sox in the season-ending series of the 2009 season.

No doubt, there will always be pitchers who start impressively and then fizzle. So, what breed might Sowers be the last of? I’ll tell you more after the jump.

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