The Most Dismissed Ace in Baseball

As many of you may have noticed there has been a wealth of elite pitching talent in the league this year. Many wonderful starters are having seasons that will go down as historic. Only 3 qualified pitchers have had a higher strikeout per 9 higher than Yu Darvish is currently having this year(11.96). Max Scherzer has a sparkling 18-1 record. Felix is building upon his Hall of Fame career, with personal bests in strikeout percentage and walk percentage. Clayton Kershaw’s 1.80 ERA is the lowest by any starting pitcher since Pedro Martinez in 2000. Jose Fernandez is dominating like no pitcher his age since Doc Gooden’s heyday. Many others, including Chris Sale, Matt Harvey, Hiroki Kuroda, and Anibal Sanchez are having marvelous seasons. All together 8 qualified starters have an ERA+ of at least 150, tied for the 4th most of any season in history. In Arizona there is a man on that list that I am not sure many people are talking about, Patrick Corbin.

As I write this I am watching the Diamondbacks celebrating a victory over one of the best offenses in baseball, the Cincinnati Reds. Patrick Corbin started this game, and ended up with a complete game, allowing 2 runs with 10 strikeouts and no walks. It is only the 3rd time in the past 3 calender years that a pitcher has had double digit K’s against Cincinnati and not allowed a walk, Zack Greinke and Chris Carpenter being the other two. That is pretty good company to be in. This outing lowered his full season ERA to 2.45, all the while pitching his home games in the bandbox that is Chase Field. He has not been getting extremely lucky either. His FIP is now 3.08, the 7th lowest number in the National League. His walk rate has been kept at a well below average 2.19 per nine, while he is only allowing 0.61 home runs per 9.

Corbin has specialized in attacking the zone this year. He has thrown a first pitch strike to 70% of the batters he has faced this year, the highest percentage in the National League. This has allowed him to reduce the number of pitches he throws in an an-bat. He currently only uses 3.60 pitches per plate appearances, placing him 13th in baseball. Since he has been so efficient, as well as productive, he has been able to complete 6 innings in all but 1 of his 25 starts this year. There are obvious flaws in his game that many will say keep from being anything more than an above average starter. He doesn’t strikeout a large number of batters, only 7.83 per 9 this year. Also he is not among the elite at keeping the ball on the ground, at 46.7% compared to a league average of 44.6%. However, there is no denying that he has been able to assuage these flaws, and been among the most valuable pitchers baseball in 2013. At only 23 years old he is well ahead of the curve. As long as he keeps getting ahead of batters, and keeps throwing a two-seamer that PITCHf/x says has been the most valuable in baseball, then he will be a very good pitcher for a very long time.

Quiz – Expansion Era Outfielders (solved)

The players in this quiz are the only outfielders with a particular season accomplishment since 1961. What is this unusual feat?

Hint #1: none of these players accomplished this feat more than once.

Congratulations to bstar! He correctly identified these players as the only outfielders since 1961 with both 25 WAR Batting Runs and 25 WAR Fielding Runs (using B-R WAR). In fact, these are the only outfielders since 1901 to meet both criteria.

The Brewers’ Carlos Gomez has a chance to join this group. He’s already at 27 WAR Fielding Runs and is sitting on 17 WAR Batting Runs, so he’ll need to get healthy and get really hot with the bat the rest of the way. Even if he doesn’t make this group, he stands an even better chance at joining even more exclusive company – becoming just the 8th player at any position with a season since 1901 of 8 WAR from fewer than 25 WAR batting runs (maybe I should have made that the quiz). The 25/25 seasons for our quiz players, and the exclusive group Gomez seems destined to join are after the jump.

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Miguel Cabrera Rewrites History

A season ago Detroit Tigers’ slugger Miguel Cabrera became the first player in 45 years to lead his league in batting average, home runs, and RBI, which earned him a historic Triple Crown. As an encore, the Tigers’ 3rd baseman decided he was going to be even better. With yet another multi-hit, multi-RBI game on Sunday, the Cabrera joined Jimmie Foxx and Babe Ruth as the only players in major league history with at least 120 RBIs, 40 home runs and a .350 average in their first 116 games of a season. That’s some pretty exclusive company that Cabrera’s rubbing elbows with and barring an absolutely massive upset, his efforts should lead to a 2nd straight MVP award.

But how did we get to this point? Even dating back to his days as a Florida Marlin, it’s fairly obvious that the potential for greatness was always there, so what unlocked it? How was Miguel Cabrera able to go from perennial All-Star to best hitter alive?

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Thursday game notes: ersatz edition

A quickie version of Thursday’s action from your substitute reporter. The real thing will return soon.

The 3-way NL Central race heated up with the Cardinals and Reds both gaining ground on the front-running Pirates, who saw their lead shrink to just two games. The AL East and AL West races also tightened with the closest pursuers in each division both gaining ground on the front-runners. In the AL Central, Detroit hosted Kansas City to begin a 5-game set that could be a make-or-break series for the upstart Royals and tell us if they really are for real.

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Quiz – Modern Sluggers (solved)

Alfonso Soriano has been in the news this week with his stellar play in his return to pinstripes. Appropriate then that he is included in this list of recent power hitters.

Really simple quiz. What is the career accomplishment shared by only these players over the past 25 seasons (since 1989)? Note for players active before 1989 that, to be included in this list, they must have achieved this career accomplishment only within the the 1989 to 2013 period.

 Player
Jeff Bagwell
Barry Bonds
Carlos Delgado
Chipper Jones
David Ortiz
Rafael Palmeiro
Albert Pujols
Manny Ramirez
Alex Rodriguez
Alfonso Soriano
Sammy Sosa
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/13/2013.
Congratulations to Chris C! He (or she) correctly identified these sluggers as the only players since 1989 with 12 or more consecutive seasons of 20+ home runs, a club joined last year by Albert Pujols, and this season by David Ortiz and Alfonso Soriano. More after the jump.

Wednesday game notes: AL Central getaway day

All three AL Central contenders had day games in the same time zone. Two trailed early but pulled it out, while the other let a lead slip away…. (P.S. I liked D.C. so much, I’m going back for another quickie — look for me in the stands Thursday afternoon, and in the blogs again by Sunday.)

Tigers 6, @White Sox 4 — Joaquin Benoit came out of hiding and shut down two major threats, one handed to him and the other of his own devising, as Detroit salvaged something from their Windy City visit.

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Let’s Talk About Kevin Appier

Kevin Appier 1993 Fleer Ultra

This 1993 Fleer Ultra card perfectly captures Kevin Appier’s deceptive (and unique) delivery. He would use that delivery to earn over nine wins above replacement in 1993. (Image courtesy of comc.com)

As I built the Hall of Stats, I came across many players who are rated highly by Hall Rating (a formula based on Baseball-Reference‘s WAR and WAA) but not remembered in the same way by Hall of Fame voters and the general public. I have covered several of those players here—including Larry WalkerRick ReuschelCurt SchillingDavid Cone, and Urban Shocker.

Many players of this ilk are considered Hall-worthy by objective-minded fans—even if the Hall of Fame voters don’t necessarily agree. I recently named my Personal Hall of Fame while bloggers Bryan O’ConnorRoss CareyDan McCloskey, and Dalton Mack did the same.

I’m interested in consensus—particularly where these Personal Halls of Fame, the Hall of Stats, and Baseball Think Factory’s Hall of Merit agree about a player and the Hall of Fame does not. Just looking at the players above, so far Walker, Reuschel, and Cone are supported by everyone except the “real” Hall of Fame. Schilling is missing only induction from the Hall of Merit while Shocker isn’t supported by either the Hall of Merit or Bryan’s Hall).

Today, I want to talk about the player who ranks #1 in Hall Rating among players left off every one of these lists—that is, until Dalton included him. It’s Kevin Appier.

Appier, a right-handed starting pitcher, made his debut for Kansas City in 1989. He pitched for the Royals until a trade in 1999. From 1999 until 2004, he bounced around from the Athletics to the Mets to the Angels before finally returning to Kansas City. He won 167 games and lost 137 (playing mostly for a miserable Royals team). He posted an ERA of 3.74 (during the height of the steroid era, which helped push his ERA+ to 121).

What caused me to look closer at Appier was a comment at the Hall of Stats by Eric Ho Rulz. “Eric”, who I assume is a Royals fan who saw Appier often, questioned my easy admittance of Bret Saberhagen into my Personal Hall while Appier received barely a look. And it’s true—I wrote several articles where I debated the players on my borderline. Appier was even left out of those.

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Tuesday game notes

@Cardinals 4, Pirates 3 (14 inn.) — With Jon Jay on 2nd after a single and a steal, Adron Chambers sliced a hit to left, and Jay just beat the throw, giving Chambers his first RBI this year and first-ever game-winning hit. That capped the Cards’ late comeback, and trimmed their division deficit to 2 games. Jay had 4 hits, and Redbirds hurlers held Pittsburgh scoreless for the last 11 stanzas.

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