Famous flameouts
Posted
Wednesday, February 8th, 2012 at
12:05 pm by Andy
Here are players who posted a very strong 1st or 2nd season (specifically they had to be among the 172 guys since 1901 to qualify for the batting title with an OPS+ of at least 125 in either year) but finished with a career OPS+ no higher than 110:
| Rk | Player | From | To | G | PA | R | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | Pos | Tm | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Greasy Neale | 94 | 1916 | 1924 | 768 | 2989 | 319 | 71 | 50 | 8 | 200 | .259 | .319 | .332 | .651 | 978 | TOT-CIN |
| 2 | Red Barnes | 95 | 1927 | 1930 | 286 | 952 | 152 | 41 | 24 | 8 | 97 | .269 | .347 | .404 | .752 | *8/79 | WSH-TOT |
| 3 | Grady Hatton | 96 | 1946 | 1960 | 1312 | 4912 | 562 | 166 | 33 | 91 | 533 | .254 | .354 | .374 | .728 | *54/376 | CIN-TOT-BOS-CHC |
| 4 | Vic Power | 97 | 1954 | 1965 | 1627 | 6461 | 765 | 290 | 49 | 126 | 658 | .284 | .315 | .411 | .725 | *34/58796 | PHA-KCA-CLE-MIN-TOT-CAL |
| 5 | Chad Tracy | 98 | 2004 | 2010 | 773 | 2747 | 304 | 161 | 9 | 79 | 333 | .278 | .337 | .445 | .782 | 53/9D7 | ARI-TOT |
| 6 | Ralph Hodgin | 98 | 1939 | 1948 | 530 | 1822 | 198 | 79 | 24 | 4 | 188 | .285 | .330 | .367 | .697 | 75/98 | BSN-CHW |
| 7 | Walt Dropo | 100 | 1949 | 1961 | 1288 | 4521 | 478 | 168 | 22 | 152 | 704 | .270 | .326 | .432 | .757 | *3/5 | BOS-DET-CHW-TOT-BAL |
| 8 | Chet Ross | 100 | 1939 | 1944 | 413 | 1442 | 156 | 53 | 21 | 34 | 170 | .241 | .309 | .392 | .701 | *7/98 | BSN |
| 9 | Dick Porter | 100 | 1929 | 1934 | 675 | 2844 | 426 | 159 | 37 | 11 | 282 | .308 | .376 | .414 | .790 | *9/47 | CLE-TOT |
| 10 | Billy Grabarkewitz | 101 | 1969 | 1975 | 466 | 1390 | 189 | 41 | 12 | 28 | 141 | .236 | .351 | .364 | .716 | 54/6D7 | LAD-TOT-OAK |
| 11 | Max Flack | 101 | 1914 | 1925 | 1411 | 5905 | 783 | 212 | 72 | 35 | 391 | .278 | .342 | .366 | .708 | *97/8 | CHI-CHC-TOT-STL |
| 12 | Snuffy Stirnweiss | 102 | 1943 | 1952 | 1028 | 4292 | 604 | 157 | 68 | 29 | 281 | .268 | .362 | .371 | .733 | *45/6 | NYY-TOT-CLE |
| 13 | Colby Rasmus | 103 | 2009 | 2011 | 420 | 1580 | 232 | 74 | 11 | 53 | 171 | .251 | .322 | .432 | .754 | *8/79D | STL-TOT |
| 14 | Ira Flagstead | 103 | 1917 | 1930 | 1219 | 4791 | 644 | 262 | 50 | 40 | 450 | .290 | .370 | .407 | .776 | *89/6745 | DET-TOT-BOS-PIT |
| 15 | Benny Meyer | 103 | 1913 | 1925 | 310 | 1236 | 146 | 29 | 17 | 7 | 84 | .265 | .365 | .346 | .711 | *9/78642 | BRO-BAL-TOT-PHI |
| 16 | Jim Lefebvre | 104 | 1965 | 1972 | 922 | 3417 | 313 | 126 | 18 | 74 | 404 | .251 | .323 | .378 | .701 | *45/37 | LAD |
| 17 | Marty Kavanagh | 105 | 1914 | 1918 | 370 | 1192 | 138 | 47 | 20 | 10 | 122 | .249 | .330 | .362 | .693 | 4/397586 | DET-CLE-TOT |
| 18 | Tom Brunansky | 106 | 1981 | 1994 | 1800 | 7169 | 804 | 306 | 33 | 271 | 919 | .245 | .327 | .434 | .761 | *9/78D3 | CAL-MIN-STL-BOS-MIL-TOT |
| 19 | George Watkins | 106 | 1930 | 1936 | 894 | 3526 | 490 | 192 | 42 | 73 | 420 | .288 | .347 | .443 | .790 | 978/34 | STL-NYG-PHI-TOT |
| 20 | Johnny Pesky | 107 | 1942 | 1954 | 1270 | 5516 | 867 | 226 | 50 | 17 | 404 | .307 | .394 | .386 | .780 | 654 | BOS-DET-TOT |
| 21 | Pinky Higgins | 107 | 1930 | 1946 | 1802 | 7554 | 930 | 374 | 51 | 140 | 1075 | .292 | .370 | .428 | .798 | *5/46 | PHA-BOS-DET-TOT |
| 22 | Harry Anderson | 108 | 1957 | 1961 | 484 | 1785 | 199 | 82 | 16 | 60 | 242 | .264 | .334 | .450 | .784 | *7/39 | PHI-TOT-CIN |
| 23 | Bing Miller | 108 | 1921 | 1936 | 1821 | 6885 | 946 | 389 | 96 | 116 | 990 | .311 | .359 | .461 | .820 | *978/3 | WSH-PHA-TOT-SLB-BOS |
| 24 | Duffy Lewis | 108 | 1910 | 1921 | 1459 | 6007 | 612 | 289 | 68 | 38 | 793 | .284 | .333 | .384 | .717 | *7/8195 | BOS-NYY-WSH |
| 25 | Bob Hamelin | 109 | 1993 | 1998 | 497 | 1505 | 179 | 70 | 3 | 67 | 209 | .246 | .352 | .464 | .816 | *D3 | KCR-DET-MIL |
| 26 | Vada Pinson | 110 | 1958 | 1975 | 2470 | 10403 | 1366 | 485 | 127 | 256 | 1170 | .286 | .327 | .442 | .769 | *897/3D | CIN-STL-CLE-CAL-KCR |
| 27 | Charlie Hollocher | 110 | 1918 | 1924 | 760 | 3390 | 411 | 145 | 35 | 14 | 241 | .304 | .370 | .392 | .762 | *6 | CHC |
There are a lot of olde-timey players on here, but a few more recent examples:
- Chad Tracy was great in his second season with the Diamondbacks, then good for a couple of years, then not so good, then not in the majors in 2011.
- Colby Rasmus was great in his second season (2010) with the Cardinals, and started off pretty well last year before crashing and burning after the trade to Toronto.
- Tom Brunansky had one outstanding season–his first in 1982. He posted many solid seasons after that but lived off the reputation earned as a rookie.
- Bob Hamelin was Rookie of the Year in 1994 and then awful in 1995. He rebounded nicely in 1996 and 1997 but finished in the majors after 1998.
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I read the criteria and immediately thought of Claudell Washington, but he fell 6 points shy of getting the 125 for the first two seasons.
Will we be getting an opposite list of players who had awful rookie/sophmore seasons who turned out to be good players? (bizzaro-flameouts? slow starters?) Or of course a companion piece on pitchers and ERA+?
Or of course a companion piece on pitchers and ERA+?
Fidrych.
(We need a button for “Likes … ruefully.”)
I’m thinking the bizarro chart might have many more names, such as a Mike Schmidt. I guess it would depend on where data points were set, meaning how low is low and how high is high.
I would be interested in seeing what it looks like with career PAs rather than career OPS. I mean Joe Charboneau just cries out to be on any list of flameouts. First year OPS+ of 129 in 512 PAs. Only played two more seasons, during which he got only 138 and 56 PAs and turned in OPS+ of 74 and 84. I think you’d be hard pressed to find anyone with those first year credentials who ended up with only 722 career PAs.
Ed,
Yes, I agree; this seems to be a fundamentally wrong interpretaton of the term “flameout”. To me, it’s a player whose first full season or two are excellent, but then they quickly decline and their career is fairly short; there should be some maximum number of Games Played or PA, as Ed said. How about 800 G or 2500 PA?
Tom Brunansky, Pinky Higgins, and especially Vada Pinson (!) were all players who had quite long, very good careers. Johnny Pesky started his career with three MVP-level careers, but had the misfortune to have the heart of his career ripped out by WWII.
AS Ed said above, Joe Charboneau pretty defines a “flameout” career as great start, quick decline, short career. Pete Reiser after 1942 came to mind, but there were seven years and over 500 more games played afterwards. Besides,I think his main problem may have been he couldn’t stop running into walls, not a decline in ability.
One similar name to Reiser that popped into my head when I read the headlines was Tony Conigliaro but he had almost 500 games in 4 seasons under his belt at the time of his beaning at age 22.
Ben Grieve was another name that came to mind but his career was more of a fizzle out (at least based on expectations) than flameout.
I do agree that Charboneau should pretty much be the poster child of this sort of headline.
Hartvig,
Yes, I also thought of Tony C., but:
- he had _four_ straight very good years at the start of his career, not just one or two
-his decline was not due to a loss in ability, but one incredibly devastating beaning, that took away a lot of his vision (he was basically batting with one good eye after 1967)
From the list posted at the top, I’d call Billy Grabarkewitz (ROY,then ???) and Bob Hamelin (same) “true” flameouts. Many of the rest, as Hartvig so aptly states, are more like “fizzle outs”. Several (which I mentioned in comment #3) do not belong on this list at all, especially Vada Pinson (he just had his best years early).
Hoe about a 1000 game/ 4000 PA maximum limit?
Things you learn randomly from BB-Ref: Joe Charboneau went 1 for 1 with the Canton Crocodiles of the Frontier League in 2000 when he was 45 years old.
As far as I can tell from searching on Google, Super Joe was the Crocs’ hitting coach, and he came out of retirement for one PA and singled.
The first guy I thought of was Kevin Maas (but while he had a 150 OPS+ in his rookie season, he “only” had 300 PA’s, so he doesn’t qualify for this list).
Bill James’ NBJHBA flameouts by decade:
1900s: Harry Lumley
1910s: Josh Devore
1920s: Carson Bigbee
1930s: Bill DeLancey
1940s: Dick Wakefield
1950s: Johnny Groth
1960s: Zoilo Versalles
1970s: Bobby Tolan and Mitchell Page
1980s: Oddibe McDowell and Juan Samuel
1990s: Phil Plantier
James took a more nuanced approach than the one used here. Half of James’s guys fit the classic “great start, quick decline, short career” pattern (Lumley, Devore, DeLancey, Page, McDowell, and Plantier). Groth, Wakefield, and Samuel had the good start but then played quite a few years at a much lower level. Bigbee, Versalles, and Tolan took several years to hit a high level, then had sudden declines.
According to Lumley’s SABR Bio, “Injuries combined with a ‘tendency to embonpoint,’ as one reporter described Lumley’s proclivity for gaining weight, caused the hard-hitting outfielder’s career to go steadily downhill after 1906.” DeLancey’s career and life were cut cruelly short by tuberculosis. Tolan ruptured an Achilles’ tendon playing basketball after a tremendous age-24 season (126 OPS+, 57 stolen bases). Devore, according to the NBJHBA, had a drinking problem. Wakefield lost a season and a half to World War II, although, according to his B-R Bullpen bio, attitude may have been a larger factor in his never getting back to pre-war form.
Wakefield’s career was similar to Stirnweiss’ in that his big years occurred during the talent-deprived WWII years.
When I read the headline, I thought of Marty Cordova and Ron Kittle. Cordova had 3.0 WAR in his first season, 3.4 WAR the rest of his 9-year carrer. Ron Kittle had 1.8WAR in his ROY season with 570 Plate appeareances, and a 1.8 WAR`, 196 PA in 1989. He accumulated another 1.8 the rest of his 10-year carrer.
Not exactly the criteria Andy used, but those were the flameouts I thought of.
Vada Pinson was on a HOF track through age 26, and was simply ordinary from then on. Was he hampered by injuries? Peaking by age 26 is odd.
Bill James in his New Historical Abstract said Pinson was actually born two years earlier than b-ref and other standard references indicate, though James does not cite a reference for that information. SABR’s bio of Pinson says that “several recent publications” claim the earlier birth date. If James is right, then Pinson began his dramatic decline from HOF-level to merely ordinary after reaching 28, not 26.
If Pinson really was just 26 in 1965 then his 37.7 WAR through that season really was spectacular: 26th all-time in career (non-pitching) WAR through age 26 (among those 26 guys with a 37.7 or higher WAR through age 26 the only one besides Pinson eligible but not in the HOF is Cesar Cedeno).
Birtelcom,
Pinson reminds me a bit of Carlos Baerga, who was an All-Star from 23-26, but then ordinary (or worse) for another ten years after that. That’s not a “flameout”, but more like an extended “fizzle”.
Useless fact; Baerga had 14.8 WAR those four years (1992-95), and 16.0 for his entire career.
And how does Buzz Arlett fit into the picture? In his only year in the majors, 1931, his OPS+ was 138. His poor fielding relegated him to the minors for the rest of his baseball career where he fared extremely well. SABR has selected him as the greatest minor league player ever.
Personally, I wouldn’t consider Arlett a “flameout” because he succeeded at every level. I think his relegation back to the minors after 1931 was mostly a matter of age. Were he a younger man when he put up that excellent season with the bat, some MLB team would have found a place for his (admittedly poor) glove. IIRC, Bill James said he was likely just as good as the likes of Chuck Klein and Hack Wilson, if not better.
A bit unfair to characterize Pesky as a flameout. Through the age of 31 he hit >.300 and scored >100 runs every year but one. WWII service robbed him of three years in the middle of his prime.
And Snuffy Stirnweiss is about the opposite of Pesky: he had two huge years in 1944-45, playing against the old and the infirm. When the big dogs returned from WWII, he regressed to average. He must have had flat feet.
Stirnweiss was one of the fastest runners in baseball. He was an All-American halfback for the University of North Carolina.
I had always assumed that Walt Dropo got his late start due in part to the war but it turns out it was college and professional football that caused the delay. It also seems a bit unusual for the reigning ROY who led the league in RBI & total bases the year before to spend a quarter of the next season back in the minors.
Learn something new on this website darned near every day.
Dropo broke his wrist prior tothestart of the 1951 season so perhaps that had an effect on his poor season. In 1952, while with the Tigers, he tied two records, 12 consecutive hits and 15 hits in 4 games. In his 1950 rookie year he became the first rookie to have more RBIs than games played (144 RBI/136 G).
Another type of flameout is the guy who stars in the minor leagues but can’t make the adjustment to the majors despite repeated opportunities. Guys like Brad Komminsk and Marc Newfield.
I’d throw in Dave McCarty in there. First round pick, .312/.400/.533 slash line at AAA, and an eleven year major league career with only 632 games at .242/.305/.371. He hit 31 HR’s for Toledo in 1999, and a total of 36 HR’s in the majors.
I almost mentioned McCarty but wasn’t sure how familiar people were with him. He was on my fantasy team so I know his quite well. McCarty actually looked pretty good when he was first called up…he got hits in 17 of his first 18 games and was batting .365. He then went into a tailspin and never recovered.
Greasy Neale made up for being on this list by being an amazing football coach for the Eagles. He’s in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. I also noticed that he won a World Series AND an NFL championship. I imagine that’s pretty elite company and will never happen again.
Deion Sanders came close, being on two Super Bowl winners and being with the Braves in their losing 1992 WS.
I thought of Jim Lefebvre as soon as I saw the topic. He got injured a lot after 1966.
This really hurts to put this name out there, but just because of the heights of his first two or three years: Dwight Gooden. He had a great rookie year, that insane 1985, a good ’86… and he was never as good after that. Before he even turned 22, he had thrown the three best seasons of his career, and was decent-to-mediocre the rest of the way.
WAR/ERA+, 1984-1986: 21.5, 155 (7.9 WAR/162 G)
WAR/ERA+, 1987-2000: 26.1, 102 (3.3 WAR/162 G)
min WAR/ERA+ 1984-86: 4.4, 126 (both in 1986)
max WAR/ERA+ post 86: 3.8 (1987), 127 (1998)
Even though the fizzle was long and had some moments, he went from phenom to fourth starter with startling speed. It hurts my heart as a Mets fan in particular, but also as a baseball fan. What might have been….
… but seriously – 218 innings at 19 (!!!), 276 2/3 at 20, 250 at 21, down to 179 2/3 at 22, but then immediately up to 248 1/3 at 23. That means that, before his age 24 season, Doc had already thrown 1172 2/3 innings (basically 235 per year). It’s really no surprise that he wound up with so many issues later in his career. Sure, it’s not as many as Bob Feller, but he’s one of the few people to handle a load anything like that and actually end up having a successful career. It’s really too bad the Mets handled him the way they did. Sure, they may not have had as good of a pitcher from 1984-86, but they would have had a HOF-caliber player well into the 90s instead. What a shame.
Andy’s posts really stir up the juices!
I took another angle: I collected hitters in their first 2 seasons combined (though 2009) with at least a 120 OPS+ and 500 PAs, then looked at the rest of their careers. There were 180 players in the study.
Fewest PAs:
Player….. … PA … From … To … Age
Larry Schlafly … 246 … 1907 … 1914 … 28-35
Troy Neel … 320 … 1994 … 1994 … 28-28
Len Koenecke … 374 … 1935 … 1935 … 31-31
Duke Kenworthy … 461 … 1915 … 1917 … 28-30
Joe Connolly … 486 … 1915 … 1916 … 31-32
Bill Salkeld … 531 … 1947 … 1950 … 30-33
Milt Byrnes … 540 … 1945 … 1945 … 28-28
Dutch Zwilling … 694 … 1915 … 1916 … 26-27
Harry Anderson … 749 … 1959 … 1961 … 27-29
Chet Ross … 777 … 1941 … 1944 … 24-27
Lowest OPS+:
Player….. … OPS+ … From … To … Age
Chet Ross … 76 … 1941 … 1944 … 24-27
Luis Salazar … 82 … 1982 … 1992 … 26-36
Harry Anderson … 85 … 1959 … 1961 … 27-29
Grady Hatton … 89 … 1948 … 1960 … 25-37
Dick Porter … 91 … 1931 … 1934 … 29-32
Mitchell Page … 92 … 1979 … 1984 … 27-32
Larry Schlafly … 94 … 1907 … 1914 … 28-35
Chris Brown … 95 … 1986 … 1989 … 24-27
Walt Dropo … 96 … 1951 … 1961 … 28-38
S. Stirnweiss … 96 … 1945 … 1952 … 26-33
Fewest WAR:
Player….. … WAR/pos … From … To … Age … G … PA
Chet Ross … -1 … 1941 … 1944 … 24-27 … 253 … 777
Mitchell Page … -0.9 … 1979 … 1984 … 27-32 … 381 … 1227
Tuck Turner … -0.6 … 1895 … 1898 … 28-31 … 261 … 1121
Larry Schlafly … -0.1 … 1907 … 1914 … 28-35 … 75 … 246
Walt Dropo … 0 … 1951 … 1961 … 28-38 … 1141 … 3868
Harry Anderson … 0.3 … 1959 … 1961 … 27-29 … 226 … 749
Len Koenecke … 1.1 … 1935 … 1935 … 31-31 … 100 … 374
Troy Neel … 1.5 … 1994 … 1994 … 28-28 … 83 … 320
Duke Kenworthy … 2.2 … 1915 … 1917 … 28-30 … 127 … 461
Dick Porter … 2.4 … 1931 … 1934 … 29-32 … 485 … 2078
Chris Brown … 2.5 … 1986 … 1989 … 24-27 … 295 … 1113
Milt Byrnes … 2.5 … 1945 … 1945 … 28-28 … 133 … 540
Bill Salkeld … 2.6 … 1947 … 1950 … 30-33 … 192 … 531
Joe Connolly … 2.8 … 1915 … 1916 … 31-32 … 166 … 486
Earl Williams … 2.8 … 1972 … 1977 … 23-28 … 734 … 2857
Mike Aldrete … 3.3 … 1988 … 1996 … 27-35 … 720 … 1836
Del Bissonette … 3.4 … 1930 … 1933 … 30-33 … 333 … 1411
Johnny Rizzo … 3.5 … 1940 … 1942 … 27-29 … 320 … 1074
Ed Bouchee … 3.5 … 1958 … 1962 … 25-29 … 507 … 1891
Dick Stuart … 3.5 … 1960 … 1969 … 27-36 … 927 … 3642
I thought for sure Mitchell Page would be on this list. I went back and looked at his career and the rapid fall from grace is there, yet it’s not quite as I remembered it. He still was effective at time, he just didn’t ever seem to play, either because of injury or something else.