10 thoughts on “Young hurling stars of 2010-11”

1. Luis Gomez February 1, 2012 at 1:04 pm

   Good question about King Felix, but he is from Venezuela and the only players I’ve heard so far with age issues are from the Dominican Republic.

   Off topic. Does anyone in this forum have any interest in the Caribbean Series?

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   1. MikeD February 1, 2012 at 6:11 pm

      Jesus Montero is from Venezuela, and when the Yankees first signed him it was discovered he lied about his age. (His listed age of 22 is correct.) A couple years back about a half a dozen players from Venezuela were declared ineligible to sign MLB contacts because they had committed age and identity fraud.

      It’s become more difficult to commit age fraud, and Venezuela has never been at the top of the list, but it has happened and it is still happening.

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2. abarnold2 February 1, 2012 at 1:31 pm

   It seems like Jurrjens has been around forever. I’d swear I had him on fantasy teams in the ’90s.

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3. Doug February 1, 2012 at 6:39 pm

   There have been 82 such seasons (25 or younger, bWAR >= 2.5) in the past 4 years.
   2008: 23, 2009: 19, 2010: 19, 2011: 21

   This is the most in any 4-year period since 1977-80, which also had 82 seasons.
   1977: 18, 1978: 21, 1979: 17, 1980: 26

   Only other season since 1976 with 20 or more pitchers was 2000 with 20.

   Another “canary in the coal mine” indicator of a new, low-offense period.

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   1. John Autin Post authorFebruary 2, 2012 at 11:33 am

      Doug, that’s an interesting angle on this topic. But what about expressing those figures in terms of the number of seasons per MLB team?

      The seasons referenced above:
      2008-11, 2.73 seasons per MLB team
      1977-80, 3.15 seasons per MLB team

      The high for the modern, dead-ball era:
      1910-13, 3.56 seasons per MLB team

      The high for the live-ball, pre-expansion era:
      1932-35, 2.75 seasons per MLB team

      The high for the expansion era:
      1966-69, 3.43 seasons per MLB team
      (same for 1968-71)

      I would also suggest that these numbers are more the product of their offensive context than the cause of it. I think there is a fairly strong selection bias involved: In low-scoring times, there is a perception that pitchers are performing better, which may let them stay in a game (or in a MLB role) longer than they would given the same level of effectiveness in a higher-scoring context. And since innings are a huge factor in WAR, that illusion leads to higher WAR values, generally.

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      1. Doug February 2, 2012 at 5:35 pm

         I agree that having more young pitchers who pitch effectively is an indicator (i.e. the product, rather than the cause) of a low-offense environment. I would venture to say the cause of the current such period is the reduction in PEDS use, not that we suddenly have much better pitching.

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4. Cory Atchason February 2, 2012 at 12:51 pm

   good to see cahill and gio on here both with two seasons. too bad they won’t be doing more of that for my a’s.

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5. Jeff Allen February 2, 2012 at 1:13 pm

   Expect to see MadBum on here at least 3 of the next 4 years. Also, as a giants fan, I am genetically predisposed to hating LA. That said, Kershaw is my favorite non-SF young hurler in the game right now. He’s just superhuman.

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6. Kenya Willi February 3, 2012 at 1:34 am

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7. Dr. Remulak February 3, 2012 at 7:11 am

   Nova and Pineda both make the list. Bright future for the Yankees!

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