Roger Clemens, 1996, and the other unluckiest pitching seasons of all-time

In 1996, Roger Clemens had an offseason by his standards, off enough that it may have been the spur to get him on steroids.  It certainly earned him a ticket out of Boston, off to a new team and a career rebirth in Toronto, and at the time, his departure might not have seemed unwarranted. By traditional metrics, 1996 was but a mediocre prelude for Clemens to winning back-to-back Cy Young awards and going 41-13 with a 2.33 ERA over 1997 and 1998. Clemens went 10-13 with a 3.63 ERA for the Red Sox in 1996, walking the most batters of his career with 106. Pushing 35, he looked to be on the decline, a shell of his once-dominant self.

Clemens did lead the American League in strikeouts in 1996 with 257. And in hindsight, we also know that he led the AL in strikeouts per nine innings with 9.5 and finished second in WAR with 7.7. In fact, it’s one of the best  losing seasons for a starting pitcher in baseball history.

One of my colleagues here, Doug, did a post a few days ago on if Matt Cain was the unluckiest pitcher ever. The post got me thinking. Doug looked at Cain’s career numbers compared to other unlucky hurlers, so I decided to take another look and compile some of unluckiest seasons for pitchers in baseball history.

The first is the ten highest WARs posted by starting pitchers with sub .500 winning percentages:

Rk Player SO WAR ▾ W-L% Year Age Tm G GS CG SHO W L SV IP H R ER BB ERA ERA+
1 Ed Walsh 258 8.7 .474 1910 29 CHW 45 36 33 7 18 20 5 369.2 242 87 52 61 1.27 189
2 Jon Matlack 195 8.6 .464 1974 24 NYM 34 34 14 7 13 15 0 265.1 221 82 71 76 2.41 149
3 Phil Niekro 262 8.5 .444 1977 38 ATL 44 43 20 2 16 20 0 330.1 315 166 148 164 4.03 111
4 Dave Roberts 135 8.5 .452 1971 26 SDP 37 34 14 2 14 17 0 269.2 238 79 63 61 2.10 157
5 Roger Clemens 257 7.7 .435 1996 33 BOS 34 34 6 2 10 13 0 242.2 216 106 98 106 3.63 139
6 Turk Farrell 203 7.4 .333 1962 28 HOU 43 29 11 2 10 20 4 241.2 210 91 81 55 3.02 124
7 Nap Rucker 151 7.4 .462 1912 27 BRO 45 34 23 6 18 21 4 297.2 272 101 73 72 2.21 151
8 Ned Garver 85 7.1 .419 1950 24 SLB 37 31 22 2 13 18 0 260.0 264 120 98 108 3.39 146
9 Irv Young 156 7.0 .488 1905 27 BSN 43 42 41 7 20 21 0 378.0 337 146 122 71 2.90 106
10 Bert Blyleven 219 6.7 .448 1976 25 TOT 36 36 18 6 13 16 0 297.2 283 106 95 81 2.87 125


And here’s a list that looks at the ten best ERA+ scores for starting pitchers with losing records and at least 162 innings pitched:

Rk Player SO ERA+ ▾ W-L% IP Year Age Tm G GS CG SHO GF W L SV H R ER BB ERA
1 Ed Siever 36 197 .421 188.1 1902 27 DET 25 23 17 4 2 8 11 1 166 73 40 32 1.91
2 Ed Walsh 258 189 .474 369.2 1910 29 CHW 45 36 33 7 7 18 20 5 242 87 52 61 1.27
3 Ben Sheets 264 162 .462 237.0 2004 25 MIL 34 34 5 0 0 12 14 0 201 85 71 32 2.70
4 Hal Newhouser 103 162 .364 183.2 1942 21 DET 38 23 11 1 14 8 14 5 137 73 50 114 2.45
5 Joe Magrane 100 161 .357 165.1 1988 23 STL 24 24 4 3 0 5 9 0 133 57 40 51 2.18
6 Dave Koslo 64 160 .440 212.0 1949 29 NYG 38 23 15 0 12 11 14 4 193 72 59 43 2.50
7 Curt Schilling 194 159 .471 168.0 2003 36 ARI 24 24 3 2 0 8 9 0 144 58 55 32 2.95
8 Ned Garvin 94 159 .238 193.2 1904 30 TOT 25 24 16 2 1 5 16 0 155 85 37 80 1.72
9 Dave Roberts 135 157 .452 269.2 1971 26 SDP 37 34 14 2 3 14 17 0 238 79 63 61 2.10
10 [tie] Dolf Luque 140 156 .471 291.0 1925 34 CIN 36 36 22 4 0 16 18 0 263 109 85 78 2.63
10 [tie] Dutch Leonard 92 156 .414 225.2 1948 39 PHI 34 30 16 1 2 12 17 0 226 85 63 54 2.51


And here are the ten best strikeouts per nine inning rates for starting pitchers with losing records and 162 innings pitched:

Rk Player SO SO/9 ▾ W-L% IP Year Age Tm G GS CG SHO GF W L SV H R ER BB ERA ERA+
1 Nolan Ryan 270 11.48 .333 211.2 1987 40 HOU 34 34 0 0 0 8 16 0 154 75 65 87 2.76 142
2 Curt Schilling 194 10.39 .471 168.0 2003 36 ARI 24 24 3 2 0 8 9 0 144 58 55 32 2.95 159
3 Nolan Ryan 327 10.35 .486 284.1 1976 29 CAL 39 39 21 7 0 17 18 0 193 117 106 183 3.36 99
4 Randy Johnson 241 10.31 .462 210.1 1992 28 SEA 31 31 6 2 0 12 14 0 154 104 88 144 3.77 105
5 Sandy Koufax 197 10.13 .381 175.0 1960 24 LAD 37 26 7 2 7 8 13 1 133 83 76 100 3.91 101
6 Ben Sheets 264 10.03 .462 237.0 2004 25 MIL 34 34 5 0 0 12 14 0 201 85 71 32 2.70 162
7 Nolan Ryan 260 9.97 .435 234.2 1978 31 CAL 31 31 14 3 0 10 13 0 183 106 97 148 3.72 98
8 Andy Benes 189 9.87 .300 172.1 1994 26 SDP 25 25 2 2 0 6 14 0 155 82 74 51 3.86 107
9 Jonathan Sanchez 177 9.75 .400 163.1 2009 26 SFG 32 29 1 1 2 8 12 0 135 82 77 88 4.24 101
10 Jake Peavy 215 9.56 .440 202.1 2006 25 SDP 32 32 2 0 0 11 14 0 187 93 92 62 4.09 99


Is this to suggest every man on these lists got screwed by his respective team? Maybe not. A number of factors can influence a pitcher’s win-loss record, and WAR, ERA+ and K/9 are all relative metrics that have varied between different eras in baseball history. Still, they offer a glimpse at pitchers who might have thrived in better environs.

100 thoughts on “Roger Clemens, 1996, and the other unluckiest pitching seasons of all-time


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