The Cardinals-Dodgers NLDS finale is feeding the talk of a Cards curse on Clayton Kershaw. But it shouldn’t. No matter what’s gone before in their meetings, this episode was just a pitcher tiring from short rest.
That’s just my opinion, but there’s evidence behind it. Start with the previous five short-rest postseason starts that went beyond 100 pitches:
- John Lackey, 2013 WS Gm. 6 — Shutout through six, faded with two out in the 7th — three straight hits for a run, then a walk on his 105th pitch filled the sacks, but the reliever stranded ’em.
- Hiroki Kuroda, 2012 ALCS Gm. 2 — Retired the first 15 (seven Ks), one-hit shutout through six. Two hits in the 7th brought a run, and after fanning the first two in the 8th, two singles (pitch nos. 100 and 103) sent off Kuroda and led to two more runs on his ledger.
- Justin Verlander, 2011 ALDS Gm. 3* — Two early runs, then clear sailing (with 9 Ks) until two out in the 7th, when a walk and HBP set up a full-count double that tied it at four on his 97th pitch. (Justin stuck through 120 pitches, and won.)
- C.C. Sabathia, same game as Verlander* — C.C. never had it, laboring into the 6th (dodging five of six walks), and allowing the 4th run on his 103rd pitch.
- Derek Lowe, 2010 NLDS Gm. 4 — Almost perfect through five (an E6 was caught stealing), then a tying solo HR in the 6th. With one out in the 7th, back ahead by a run, Lowe gave up a walk, infield hit and another walk on his 101st pitch, and the bullpen let in two runs for the final.
* Verlander and Sabathia both were on two days’ rest, after about 25 pitches each in a rain-interrupted opener.
Now let’s go a bit farther back. To avoid the appearance of cherry-picking, I’ll start with Josh Beckett’s shutout that ended the 2003 World Series. From that game through this one, we have 24 postseason starters who lasted into the 6th inning on short rest. Since they lasted that long, their overall 3.20 ERA and 1.20 WHIP* (including HBP) is no surprise. But check out this breakdown:
- Innings 1-5 — 2.10 ERA, 1.20 WHIP* … 120 IP, 31 runs, 84 hits, 37 walks, 103 Ks, 3 HRs
- 6th onward — 5.71 ERA, 1.76 WHIP* … 34.2 IP, 24 runs, 45 hits, 13 walks, 31 Ks, 5 HRs
Putting it another way: After the 5th, they averaged one run allowed and just over four outs recorded.
Any large group of starts shows worse results after two turns through the batting order. The 2014 splits show a 17-point rise in BA and 54-point rise in OPS for batters’ 3rd PA against a starter, compared to the first two. But the numbers above are on a different order. These guys were going great guns for five innings; and since they were on short rest, we assume their skippers and catchers were watching closely for signs of fatigue. But they still got lit up in the 6th and beyond.
My point here isn’t to pick on Don Mattingly. Even if you fault his decision, you have to respect that the particular problem posed by Matt Adams and LA’s struggling southpaw relievers put Donnie in a bind. But these data suggest that the leash on short-rest starters should be cruelly tight. Looking sharp for five innings — even fanning the side in the 6th — means virtually nothing. When they go bad, it can be lightning-quick.
All the more reason why the only logical progression of pitcher specialization is the use of an “opener”.
Start the game with your nasty 12K/9 reliever.
He takes the top of the order in the first inning.
The starter becomes the long man.
Top of the order gets one less crack at him, and the bridge to the closer is shorter.
________
At least Kenley Jansen is well rested for next year.
________
http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/2014_NLDS2.shtml#post_pitching_loser::8
John,
The evidence seems pretty clear, as you point out, but if you go back just another couple years you get some fine short-rest performances out of Curt Shilling in Arizona’s 2001 WS run.
Schilling threw 102 pitches in an easy Game 1 win and then came back after three days rest to throw 7 innings and 88 pitches (granted, he didn’t make 100) of one-run ball (the first game that Kim of course famously blew).
Then he returned on short rest again in Game 7 to throw 7.1 innings and 103 pitches, giving up a single run in the seventh and that Soriano solo shot with none out in the eighth soon before he was lifted. It seems clear he was fading near that 100 mark too, though all in all not too shabby an effort in both short-rest cases.
You probably have to back to Gibby and Lolich and Koufax for truly masterful performances.
Did Kershaw really pitch poorly in the 7th? 6.0 IP 3ER should give your team a decent chance to win. If the dodgers score 10, are we really talking about how they shouldn’t have gone with Kershaw? Adams hits into a double play instead of putting it in the seats there isn’t much question that it was a great decision to start him. That’s just a matter of an inch or so in contact between bat and ball. Seems like pretty small sample size.
Thanks for spreading this out a bit to talk about other pitchers on short rest more generally. You make a compelling case for “they tire a little sooner than they would normally” but the early success seems to indicate that combined with a rested bullpen (post season travel days are great for this), going with your ace on short rest is indeed an important strategy and they can be counted on for much the same performance through at least a considerable pile of innings.
I think about injuries too with short rest/high stress post season starts and I can’t think of any. All of these guys we’re talking about here had high innings counts on the year and were relied on even more than their normal share in the post season yet none came up limp. Might be another thing to think about with all the Tommy John’s and injury fears with pitchers. When they get into a rhythm of maintenance and rest, they aren’t likely to break down.
mosc, I didn’t imply they should not have started Kershaw — indeed, I think they’d have been fools not to. But yes, he did pitch poorly in the 7th. Holliday hit a hanging curve that just happened to stay outside. The pitch Peralta hit — I’m not sure if it was a fastball or slider, but at 91 mph it’s not much of a heater, and for a slider it wasn’t sharp. The first-pitch fastball that Adams swung through missed its target and came right over the middle. And the home-run curveball was terrible — rolling, hanging, sitting right on a belt-high tee.
Of course there’s luck involved — either or both of the singles might have been gloved, and the homer didn’t clear the fence by much. But he missed his spots, and his breaking ball had no bite.
P.S. Remember that the 24 starts I focused on were the guys who lasted into the 6th. If we take all 38 short-rest starts from Beckett ’03 through Kershaw ’14, we get a 4.23 ERA and 1.41 baserunners per inning. There were 5 “disaster” starts among those other 14, including three who logged 2 IP or less while averaging 5 runs allowed. I’d still start my ace if it’s win-or-go-home and he’s much better than the alternative, but I wouldn’t expect his “A” game.
Sorry to hijack the thread by posting something unrelated, but there’s never anywhere good for us lowly peons who can’t edit the site to post interesting/important stuff, so I always just try to do it on the most recent post.
Anyway, I just want to let everyone know (if they didn’t know already) that Internet Baseball Awards (IBA) balloting is underway at Baseball Prospectus. If you’ve never voted before, you just need to sign up for a Baseball Prospectus account (including the FREE version of the account, if you don’t feel like paying money; that’s what I have, and I’ve been voting for years!) and fill out a ballot. Since everyone here LOVES baseball, this is YOUR chance to, as part of a LARGE voting bloc, determine the Player of the Year, Pitcher of the Year, Rookie of the Year, and Manager of the Year. There’s even a little “share” option if you’d like to let other people see your ballot. Here’s the link for the voting:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/iba/index.php?mode=home
And, in case you’re curious about MY ballot (or, more likely, if you’d just like to see what a completed ballot LOOKS like, here’s mine:
http://bbp.cx/iba/1972
Happy voting, everyone!
Another entry from the “I had it, but I lost it” file, some of which I looked up on Retrosheet to remember:
The last MLB game I attended in person was, semi-coincidentally, a Dodgers-Cardinals matchup (that was who was playing in StL the weekend I graduated from SLU). José Jimenez, about a month and a half before his no-hitter, was pitching on May 14th of ’99 (his last start came on May 8th). Through six innings, he had a 1-0 lead, and retired the #5 and #6 hitters to start the 7th. Then #7 and #8 hit back-to-back singles. No problem, Kevin Brown is not known as a hitter. And Brown did not attempt to hit, as he walked on four pitches.
The next batter hit a weak grounder short of third, fielded by Shawon Dunston (the ex-Cu* infielder). First rule of throwing a baseball: Make sure someone is covering the base. He didn’t, they weren’t covering third, and umpire Angel Hernandez called the throw into left field fair. Two batters later, Tony La finally took out Jimenez and another infielder in a double switch.
Part of a comeback in the Cardinal eighth: McGwire walked, Lankford homered, Dunston singled to left, temporarily winning the crowd back onto his side. Bragg lined to center (one out, not two, Mr Dunston). Marerro flied out to right, and Dunston was closer to second than first when the throw came in to double him off.
That’s our Shawon! Even though, as Bill James wrote in the HBA, Dunston made rookie mistakes for his entire career, I’ll always savor his leadoff hit in the 15th inning of 1999 NLCS, Game 5 — and his subsequent steal — which began the rally that ended with Robin Ventura’s “grand slam single.”
Dunston’s hit kept me and my buddy Mike from leaving Shea. The Mets had fallen behind in an elimination game, and had been blanked since a 1st-inning homer off Maddux. And we had a plane to catch. (Fortunately, Shea and LaGuardia are very close, and this was before the TSA made last-minute check-in impossible.)