Hey everyone!
Thought I’d get up a thread to talk about the nitty-gritty over the next week. I’ll post a few top-line thoughts, and then feel free to comment below as the week goes on!
While the AL is basically set, there are six teams (barring a serious surge by the sub-.500 teams (NYM, COL, WAS, ARI) vying for four spots in the NL playoffs – some teams with multiple routes to consider, some teams with just one path. With just a week to go, I thought we could look at schedules and results. I don’t think I’ll modify this post at all, but I’ll try to post in the comments when there’s interesting stuff going on. So let’s begin.
We’ll start with a reminder, or perhaps it’s news to you, if you’ve not been following. There will be 8 playoff teams in each league: the three division winners, plus the three second-place teams in each division, and the two teams with the best records that neither won their division, nor finished in second.
MIA, 28-25
Here’s a sentence you didn’t expect to read at the beginning of the year:
“Miami is the team best-situated for a playoff berth.”
Of the teams we’re discussing, that’s certainly true. While they trail division-leading Atlanta by three games with seven to play (they do have four against the Braves and could take the division lead with a sweep), they also have second place by a game over the Phillies. The downside? Their seven remaining are all on the road, against superior teams: four at the Braves, followed by three at the Yankees.
STL, 26-24
It looks like the Cards aren’t quite going to manage to play all 60 games – but they will get to 58. That’s a remarkable feat considering how things started; however, that will necessitate playing 8 in the final week (beginning today, Monday the 21st). They begin with three at Kansas City (coming off a sweep at the hands of the Brewers), followed by five games in four days hosting Milwaukee.
St. Louis, playing only 58 games, gives them fewer games to make up ground if something goes wrong, so that may be something to watch out for. They’re also in the tightest division race: the Central-leading Cubs are up 3.5, but the Cards lead the Brewers and Reds by only a game.
PHI, 27-26
The Phillies have the oddest schedule left: they play seven in seven days… with an off-day. That may be helpful to a bullpen that may be history’s worst. (That link is old, but I couldn’t find the newer one I read last week; the points still hold.)
Philadelphia also has the privilege of playing at Washington, arguably the NL’s worst team, to start the week. Like the Marlins, though, their whole final week is to be played on the road. Not only do they go to Washington; they also go to Tampa, the team with the AL’s best record.
Now, on to the three .500 teams, entering Monday:
CIN, 27-27
Cincinnati is the only team here with six to play in seven days. They host the Brewers for three and close out at Minnesota (a team with probably nothing to play for, as they’ve wrapped up a playoff spot but are unlikely to catch the division-leading White Sox) to end the season.
Cincinnati, like St. Louis and Milwaukee, has multiple paths to the postseason. They are, right now, tied for that final playoff spot. BUT, they’re just a game back of the Cardinals. So second-place is an extremely viable option. However, they have to hold off Milwaukee – but they can, to some extent, at least, control their own destiny in that regard, with the upcoming series hosting the Brewers.
MIL, 26-26
Milwaukee’s schedule is the one full of both the most opportunity, and liability as we enter the season’s final week.
In terms of liability, Milwaukee is one of only two teams (the other is below) having to play eight in seven days. For a team that has traditionally relied on bullpen, that could be a struggle; on the other hand, the starters have been better this year than probably any other in my lifetime, so that’s a positive. But I’m supposed to be talking negatives, too, and there’s a big one: Milwaukee, like the Marlins and Phillies, has no home games to fall back on here in the (in Milwaukee’s case) ironically-named “home stretch.” More like a “road stretch” this year.
In terms of opportunity, though, no one’s path is as clear as Milwaukee’s. No one else is as in-control of their own playoff fortunes. Other teams are, to some extent or other, forced to scoreboard-watch; Milwaukee’s final 8 games are not only against teams they’re trailing in the Wild Card; they’re both division foes. That means Milwaukee’s path to second-place may actually be clearer than either Cincinnati’s or St. Louis’, as Milwaukee plays both teams.
SFG, 26-26
Like the Brewers, the Giants play eight in seven days. Unlike all the other teams featured in this post, the Giants play all eight at home. Having the final chance to bat may, in fact, be a bigger advantage than ever. Not only that, but the teams they play are largely out of it. They begin with a four-gamer hosting the Rockies, who are far enough out that they’d need a sweep to pass the Giants. Then they finish against the Padres (incl. a Friday doubleheader); however, the Padres have the NL’s second-best record, but are very unlikely to catch the Dodgers, and so are almost certainly slotted into their position already, and will probably have nothing to play for. That presents some pretty big opportunities for the Giants as the season comes to a close.
So: to which team do you give the edge? Who can pull it out here at the end of the season? Is it most important to have an off day? To reduce doubleheaders? To play at home? To have an easy schedule? To control your own destiny? It seems to me that how you answer those questions this year, might be every bit as important as the normal stuff, like rotation, bullpen, and lineup strength. In a 60-game season, each game is worth (essentially) 2.5 games: that means we’re basically getting a month of baseball in this final week, and we’re getting it in an extremely tight (if artificially-expanded) playoff race. So feel free to post comments below; I’ll try to check in each day, and I hope we can see some phenomenal baseball to close out the year!
Meant to post this right away this morning, but got a bit sidetracked. Here are the standings as of this morning (9/22), with the top four teams being IN, and the bottom two being OUT:
MIA 28-26 (L to ATL, 5-4)
STL 26-25 (L to KCR, 4-1)
CIN 28-27 (W over MIL, 6-3)
PHI 27-27 (L to WAS, 5-1)
SFG 26-27 (L to COL, 7-2)
MIL 26-27 (L to CIN, 6-3)
Quick recap:
Basically, it was a very boring day. Of the six, only one team won: Cincinnati. They defeated Milwaukee on the strength of an eighth-inning three-run jack by former Brewer Mike Moustakas. If not for that home run, Milwaukee would’ve rallied to tie things up in the ninth. The Marlins also had an interesting one; they started by putting three runs on the board in the first frame, then promptly gave up four in the bottom of the inning. They never led after that point, though they did have the go-ahead run on base in the top of the eighth, loading the bases with two outs. Starling Marte lined out to third to end the threat. In fun news, there was virtually no fight put up by the other teams’ offenses. Philadelphia, San Francisco, and St. Louis combined to score only 4 runs (two for the Giants, one each for the others). Colorado sits just 2.5 games out; I’m only mentioning them here because they play one of these teams. But if they keep playing like last night, they could talk themselves into this discussion. The other teams I considered including in this original post was the Mets… who lost 2-1 to the Rays, removing them further from playoff consideration.
The Phillies get swept by “arguably the NL’s worst team” but unarguably the defending champs. I don’t like the Phils’ chances against the Rays.
Apropos of nothing in particular, the Blue Jays last week debuted a 21 year-old Mexican born catcher by the name of Alejandro Kirk. Kirk tips the scales at 265 lbs on a 5’8″ frame. That’s more than 40 lbs heavier the next bulkiest player as short, another catcher making his debut this season, one Chadwick Tromp in San Francisco. The next shortest players as heavy as Kirk are two more Giants, Pablo Sandoval and Reyes Moronta, both two inches taller at 5’10”. Physique aside, Kirk, with no professional experience higher than A ball, has shown he can handle the lumber, going 6 for 14 for his first week, including a 4 for 4 game with a homer in the Blue Jays’ Monday romp over the Yankees, the earliest in a career for such a game by an AL catcher (breaking by 15 games the record held by another Toronto backstop, Reese McGuire, set last year, also against the Yankees).
Yes, the Nats are the defending champs, BUT:
Also, your note about a pudgy catcher with a big debut reminded me of Wilson Ramos. He’s not as pudgy as Kirk, of course, but when Joe Mauer was out to start the 2010 season, Ramos debuted to a 4-5 with a double, following it up the next day with a 3-4 and TWO doubles. It was quite the news for Twins fans to think that, with defending-MVP Mauer out for the first week of the season, they might’ve somehow found someone with just as much hitting talent. That wasn’t true, of course, and they traded Ramos by midseason. But that’s what I thought of. Thanks for the note about Kirk; I hadn’t heard about him.
Willians AstudilloPositions: Catcher, Third Baseman and First Baseman
Bats: Right • Throws: Right
5-9, 225lb (175cm, 102kg)
Previous “fat guy” catcher award winner, this is the contact machine from the Twins with an unheard of nowadays mere 13 K’s in 300+ PA’s….Kirk must be a Beeg Boy
Definitely built low to the ground. Here’s video of his 4-hit game.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21ZguOn7AwM
Nice, let’s hope he doesn’t go the way of Pablo Sandoval and eat himself out of effectiveness
Here are standings and some thoughts on Tuesday’s results:
STL 27-25 (W over KCR, 5-0)
MIA 28-27 (L to ATL, 11-1)
CIN 28-28 (L to MIL, 3-2)
SFG 27-27 (W over COL, 5-2)
MIL 27-27 (W over CIN, 3-2)
PHI 27-29 (L to WAS, 5-1 AND 8-7)
-Yet again, the Nationals rip into the Phillies, winning both ends of the doubleheader. Washington poured it on in the first end with a 4-run third inning – an even more overwhelming deficit in a 7-inning game. In the nightcap, the Nats again had a 4-run third inning, this time to take a 4-2 lead. In spite of the close score, though, the Phillies didn’t lead until the extra frame (the eighth inning), when they took a one-run lead. The Nats added two in the bottom half on a walkoff homer by Yadiel Hernandez.
-The Marlins… talk about poor timing. They had 10 hits, and two walks in their game, yet managed only a single run against the Braves who saw 8 of the 9 positions in the batting order reach base (including two homers and five RBI from Marcel Ozuna) and score 11 runs.
-The Giants and Rockies were tied at two midway through the seventh. That’s when the Gaints pounded three extra-base hits (a homer by Joey Dickerson and doubles by Joey Bart and Brandon Belt) to add three runs and seal the game.
-The Cardinals had an easy win against their intra-state rivals. Starter Austin Gomber threw 6 innings of 4-hit, no-run ball. ALSO, I learned that there are two “if necessary” games the Cards could play against the Tigers, depending on what’s happening in the standings. They’ll need to make sure to continue their winning ways if they want to avoid those two extra games.
-The Reds scored two quickly in the bottom of the first to take their lead, which they held through six innings. In the top of the seventh, with rookie long-relief specialist Tejay Antone on the mound for his second inning, a sac fly by Orlando Arcia and double by Eric Sogard added run-scoring plays to take a lead the Brewers would not relinquish, facing the minimum number of Reds with seven of the final nine Reds striking out.
As things sit right, the Phillies are on hanging on for dear life, needing to pass at least two of the teams at .500 or better while they sit two (half-)games below even. We’ll see what happens.
Eric Kratz on Wednesday night recorded his second pitching appearance of the season and, in so doing, joins Mike Ryba and Chris Gimenez as the only players since 1901 with three seasons pitching and catching at least two games. Kratz was pressed into service as the Blue Jays routed the Yankees 14-1; it was the 6th straight game between those clubs in which the winning team has reached double digits in runs.
For Thursday:
STL 27-26 (L to KCR, 12-3)
CIN 29-28 (W over MIL, 6-1)
MIA 28-28 (L to ATL, 9-4)
SFG 27-27 (W over COL, 7-2)
MIL 27-28 (L to CIN, 6-1)
PHI 28-29 (W over WAS, 12-3)
-The Phillies bats finally come alive after a few tired days. Cutch awakened, raising his average to .250 by going 3-5 with a double and a homer.
-The Cardinals scored two meaningless runs in the ninth to save themselves from a double-digit loss. They allowed Carlos Martinez to pitch five innings, allowing 8 R (all earned). But when things are that much of a blowout, you might as well let it ride. I also think that there’s probably a sense in which they might want to save the bullpen for the five-gamer against the Brewers that begins tomorrow. It’s also looking quite likely that there will be a doubleheader on October 1st between the Cardinals and the Tigers. I’m not going to do the math to see whether or not it’s guaranteed, but it’s a possibility.
-The Marlins look to avoid a sweep today (Friday). They’ve twice scored four runs and lost, which none of the other teams we’re following have done this week. The Marlins are currently on a four-game losing streak.
-San Francisco is on a two-game winning streak – the longest of these teams. Yikes. By the way, if you haven’t been paying attention to Brandon Belt, now’s the time. He’s hitting 50 points better than his career average (.313 over .263) and has a 1.018 OPS. It’s quite a year.
-Cincinnati topped the Brewers 6-1 to move percentage points behind the Cardinals for the 2nd-place playoff spot in the Central. Trevor Bauer… wow. 8 innings, 12 Ks… it’s a HUGE win in a playoff push. It kind of sounds like he might be making another start before the season ends. Considering that he’s got a 1.73 ERA, we’ll see if he can wrap up his first Cy Young Award.
Weird note: eight players yesterday hit exactly 2 HR (Danny Jansen (TOR), Bryce Harper (PHI), Salvador Perez (KCR), Franchy Cordero (KCR), Randy Arozarena (TBR), Miguel Cabrera (DET), Wyatt Mathisen (ARI), and Jake Cave (MIN). That’s… really weird. At least I think it is. If anyone knows how rare it is to have that many players go deep twice (or even “twice or more”) on the same day, I’d be fascinated. I feel like, if it were a record, I’d have heard something about it. On the other hand, it seems like a lot for one day, so I wonder how often it happens.
My limited search showed that on 8/15/2019 there were 9 players with 2 HR in a game.
Out of curiosity, was that search run on players with exactly 2 HR, or at least 2 HR? Doesn’t really matter; just curious.
I ran my search for 2+ HR but on 8/15/2019 they each had 2 HR.
Here you go:
STL 28-26 (W over MIL, 4-2)
MIA 29-28 (W over ATL, 4-2)
CIN 29-28 (idle)
SFG 28-28 (L to COL, 5-4; 11 innings)
PHI 28-29 (idle)
MIL 27-29 (L to STL, 4-2)
Of the six teams we’re following, only Milwaukee both A.) played yesterday, and B.) scored a number of runs other than 4. Here we go:
Brewers ace Corbin Burnes lost: the game, his sub-2.00 ERA, his undefeated record, and, most likely, his shot at the Cy Young Award. Every Cardinals starter reached base in the game. Four to play in these next three days between these two clubs in this one series (see what I did there?).
Miami avoided a sweep and finally came to defeat the Braves. Starter Pablo Lopez went 5 shutout innings, striking out 6. Not much else to say about this one.
Finally, San Francisco had the chance to move into first place among all these six teams. The Giants scored two in the bottom of the first and added another on a Wild Pitch in the second. A 3-0 lead was lost in each of two innings in which the Rox scored 2 runs, allowing Colorado to take the lead in the seventh. Stealth MVP candidate Brandon Belt knocked a solo homer out of the park to lead off bottom of the eighth and tie the game. Evan Longoria added a one-out double, but the Giants were unable to bring a run around. The bottom of the tenth is where things get interesting; with one out, Belt and Crawford were the next two batters. The Rockies intentionally walked both, then got out of the inning. After a Rockies sac fly in the 11th, the Giants were unable to bring a run around, and thus ended the game. Should be a wonderful weekend of baseball! All six teams are still separated by just two games.
Unfortunately, the internet’s down at my house, which means I gave to type this on my phone. Tipping on my phone takes forever. So in lieu of a full update, I’ll say this:
The Marlins and Reds locked up playoff spots, leaving two open.
The Cardinals and Giants each have a magic number of two in order to lock up spots over the Brewers and Phillies. Any win by the Cards does that automatically; the Giants and Phillies need help.
That’s enough for today. If I can, I’ll get something more complete tomorrow. Thanks!
STL 29-28 (L to MIL, 3-0)
CIN 30-29 (L to MIN, 7-3)
MIA 30-29 (L to NYY, 11-4)
SFG 29-30 (L to SDP, 6-2)
MIL 29-30 (W over STL, 3-0)
PHI 28-31 (L to PHI, 4-3)
-I’m not going to worry about Cincinnati nor Miami, other than to say that Miami has only reached the playoffs two other times in history; they own two World Series titles. So I’m not sure we even need to play the postseason. Might as well crown ’em now.
-That being the case, we’ll lead off with the game involving two of these teams. Behind an 8-inning, 2-hit, 1-walk, 10-strikeout gem by Brandon Woodruff (Josh Hader finished off the shutout with a perfect ninth) and a HR by Daniel Vogelbach (batting .345/.429/.600 since joining Milwaukee), the Brewers stayed alive. A win by the Brewers today clinches; a win by the Cardinals clinches. This is a big one. Someone from this game is getting in. Brett Anderson goes for the Brewers; rookie Austin Gomber goes for St. Louis.
-The Phillies squandered a 4-hit (!!!!) game by one-time MVP Andrew McCutchen, who doubled and homered to score all three of the Phillies’ runs. Cutch is doing his best to preserve the Phillies’ chances; since the beginning of this series I’m writing, Cutch is now batting .429/.455/.857, while the Phillies are 1-4 in that timeframe. Let’s also not fail to mention that Zack Wheeler went 7 innings in a pretty good outing. The only blemish, really, was the fifth inning (in general). Wheeler allowed four hits (a double followed by three singles with a hit-by-pitch snuck in there), scoring three runs to take a 4-2 lead. The Phils’ biggest threat came in the seventh; after singles by Cutch (of course) and Alex Bohm, Bryce Harper added and RBI single. Then, catcher and cleanup hitter (!!!) JT Realmuto grounded into a double-play to crush the hopes and dreams of Phillies’ fans. Jean Segura stranded Bohm at third to end the inning, the threat, and, for all intents and purposes, the game. It may’ve also ended the Phils’ postseason hopes: they need a lot of help to get in; they need a Cardinals win (a.k.a. a Milwaukee loss), a San Francisco loss, and, of course, they need to win their own game. It’s… not looking good.
-Finally, the Giants, who have perhaps the most fearsome top-of-the-order of any of these teams (Mike Yastrzemski, Alex Dickerson, and Brandon Belt) used those hitters to rally in the eighth. Already trailing 3-0, they managed two runs… but that was all they’d get. San Diego needed six pitchers to get through it, but the Padres are playing for absolutely nothing right now (couldn’t catch the Dodgers, won’t get caught by the NL Central runner-up as the top non-division winner). That should mean the Giants have a good opening here. They also need the Cardinals to win, because even if the Giants win, the Brewers have the tiebreaker.
Enjoy this final day of baseball, everyone! Should be a memorable one!
Playoffs are SET!
It was a disappointing last day, after a real bummer of a penultimate day. Nobody wanted to get in:
IN! STL (W 5-2 over MIL)
IN! MIL 29-31 (L 5-2 to STL)
Out! SFG 29-31 (L 5-4 to SDP)
Out! PHI 28-32 (L 5-0 to TBR)
-Let’s start with the NL Central, where a LOT of records have been set:
MIL is, I believe, the first sub-.500 playoff team in MLB history;
the NL Central becomes, quite obviously, the very first division in MLB history to have FOUR representatives in the postseason.
Harrison Bader homered and Paul Goldschmidt went 3-4 to bring the Cardinals an easy win after the Brewers lost starter Brett Anderson after two innings with an injury.
-The Giants came closest to looking like they actually wanted to be in the postseason, managing three combined runs in the seventh and eighth to make things close. They even managed runners on first and second with two outs in the seventh, but couldn’t bring across the run they needed. The comeback wasn’t quite big enough.
-The Phillies reached base only seven times all game, and starter Aaron Nola failed to complete four innings, having already given up three runs by that point. It was a very disappointing end for a team that held the tiebreaker over the Brewers and Giants, but somehow squandered a favorable position and a decent schedule.
Thanks for following along, folks! See you in the postseason!