Author Archives: Doug

Jake Arrieta: when it all starts to click

Last Tuesday at Wrigley, Jake Arrieta fanned 13 Reds and faced only one batter over the minimum in a masterful one-hit shutout. That game crowns an impressive campaign in which Arrieta has posted this line, with every one of his rate stats a career best.

Year Age Tm W L W-L% ERA G GS CG SHO IP BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W
2014 28 CHC 9 5 .643 2.65 24 24 1 1 149.2 40 157 145 2.30 1.016 6.7 0.3 2.4 9.4 3.93
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/17/2014.

More on Arrieta’s breakout year after the jump.

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Surge or swoon: September suspense and October glory

A new tool in the Baseball-Reference Play Index allows analysis of player and team performance over any contiguous portion of a season, bounded by team game numbers. Thus, with every team having played at least 149 games as of Sep 15th, here is how this year’s playoff contenders have fared over the twenty games from 130 to 149.

Rk Tm Record
1 LAA 16-4
2 BAL 15-5
3 SFG 13-7
4 LAD 13-7
5 DET 13-7
6 STL 12-8
7 PIT 12-8
8 WSN 11-9
9 TOR 11-9
10 CLE 10-10
11 SEA 9-11
12 KCR 9-11
13 NYY 8-12
14 OAK 7-13
15 ATL 7-13
16 MIL 6-14
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/16/2014.

How have past playoff teams fared going down the stretch? Do hot teams stay hot, or does just making the playoffs render a team vulnerable to an October letdown? Are teams which clinch early better advised to coast down the stretch, or keep the pedal to the metal? More after the jump.

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Quiz – Paying Off (solved)

These are the only pitchers since 1920 with an unusual season pitching accomplishment. What is it?

Congratulations to donburgh and BryanM! They teamed up to identify the quiz players as the only pitchers since 1920 with a 20 win season aged 35 or older in the first year with a new team (or teams). Thus, they paid off on the gamble that was made in acquiring a proven but aging veteran. More after the jump.

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Quiz – Coming Up Roses (solved)

What is the career accomplishment that is shared only by these players since 1901?

Hint: Jackie Robinson is the one HOFer who almost made this list

Congratulations to Artie Z.! He knew that these players always came up roses because they never came up short. Or, rather, as shortstop. The quiz players are part of a larger group of 63 players who all played 250+ games at both 2nd base and 3rd base since 1901, but only these seven never played a game at shortstop. Included in the larger group are 3 HOFers – Jackie Robinson who played shortstop once, and Paul Molitor and Frankie Frisch who both did so 50+ times. More after the jump.

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Quiz – Winning Weirdly (stumped)

These are the only pitchers of the past 30 seasons (since 1985) with an unusual single game accomplishment. What is it?

Hint: there is a career context for this single game feat

Looks like I have another stumper! Voomo Zanzibar zeroed in on the main point straight off, that all of these pitchers have recorded an unlikely shutout with zero strikeouts. The extra wrinkle that eluded our readers was that each did so in the first whiff-less CG of his career. More after the jump.
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Quiz – The Untouchables (stumped)

Yankee rookie Dellin Betances is having a season so far that puts him in the company of some of baseball’s all-time great relievers. What seasonal pitching feat has been achieved only by these players?

Hint: Betances will need to continue his strong performance the rest of the season to remain with this group.

Looks like I’ve stumped the panel on this one. The answer is that these are the only right-handed pitchers since 1901 to have a season with 80% of appearances in relief, 75+ IP and a ratio of ERA+ to WHIP exceeding 300. Betances’s ratio is currently at 347 times WHIP, so he has a good chance to still be on this list at season’s end. If he does, he will likely have the highest IP total for such a season (lefty or righty) since Bruce Sutter in 1977. More after the jump.

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RBI Masters: Manny being Manny or Answering the Belle

A common and legitimate criticism of using RBI as a measure of a hitter’s effectiveness is that RBI are opportunity-based and, therefore, good RBI totals may simply be an indicator of more RBI opportunities. To address this limitation in raw RBI totals, this post looks at players who are most proficient in driving in runs when they are presented with that opportunity (namely, when runners are in scoring position).

Using this approach, Albert PujolsAlbert Belle and Manny Ramirez emerge as the most proficient expansion era run producers with RISP, with Frank Thomas just a hair behind.

My thanks to regular HHS contributor Richard Chester for suggesting the idea for this post. More after the jump.

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Quiz – Throwback Players (solved)

The players in this quiz are mostly from yesteryear, with a couple of exceptions. What is the seasonal batting feat that distinguishes this group among players active since 1901?

Bonus: name the player who is on pace in 2014 to join this group.

Congratulations to John Autin, with some help from Richard Chester and others. They teamed up to identify the quiz players as those with seasons of 50 stolen bases and 25 doubles, with doubles at least as numerous as strikeouts. That combination of speed, contact hitting and a little pop has become very rare with only two such post-war seasons, though Jose Altuve is currently on pace to join this group if he can keep his doubles total level with his strikeouts. More after the jump.

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