Author Archives: Doug

Is it a hit or an error?

In a recent post looking at pitchers recording higher ratios of unearned to total runs, some commenters wondered about the effect that official scorer bias may have on such results. More specifically, would official scorers be more inclined to score errors on debatable plays when the home team is fielding (thereby protecting the home team’s pitchers’ ERAs), and score hits on similar plays when the home team is batting (thereby enhancing the home team’s batters’ batting stats)?

After the jump, I’ll take a look at this question, and see what the numbers tell us.
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Alex, I’ll take the Yankees in the World Series for 500

The Yankees are known for their unmatched post-season success, including the most World Series titles and appearances. In fact, the Yankees have lost more World Series than any other franchise has won.

This game is Jeopardy but, in this incarnation, could also be called box score sleuthing. There are many pieces to the game, each of which can be solved independently. So I expect this will work best as a group exercise with different individuals working on different pieces.

Following are a list of dates. These dates are the answers to Jeopardy questions. Your job is to determine the questions. Each question is in the form of “When was the last time a Yankee/the Yankees had a World Series game with …. ?”.

Note that the question format includes “a Yankee” rather than a specific name. Thus, none of the answers (er, questions) reference a specific player – so, nothing like “When was the last time in the World Series that Babe Ruth struck out with the bases loaded?”, or that sort of thing.

Thanks to everyone for playing. You found lots of interesting factoids that I never noticed. A box score is truly a treasure trove if you look closely. The questions and answers are posted after the jump. The ones you found are in black, and the remaining ones in blue.

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Why does CC Sabathia allow so many unearned runs?

Fielding in baseball (if not fielders, necessarily) is getting better all the time. Improvements in equipment, field conditions and, especially, defensive positioning, mean today’s players have a leg up on their predecessors. Indeed, today’s computer analysis of batter and pitcher tendencies is of a sophistication unimagined even as recently as a decade ago. And, to top it off, recent years have seen progressively fewer balls in play due to ever increasing numbers of strikeouts. The end result – fewer errors and fewer unearned runs.

Nevertheless, unearned runs haven’t disappeared entirely and some pitchers seem to allow more of them than others. As an example, these are the starting pitchers of 2012 (min. 150 IP) with the three highest ratios of unearned runs allowed to total runs allowed.

Rk Player R ER IP Year Age Tm G GS CG SHO W L W-L% BB SO ERA ERA+ HR
1 C.J. Wilson 93 78 188.0 2012 31 LAA 31 31 0 0 12 9 .571 80 159 3.73 101 17
2 CC Sabathia 85 71 176.0 2012 31 NYY 25 25 2 0 13 6 .684 40 169 3.63 115 21
3 Aaron Harang 82 69 164.0 2012 34 LAD 28 28 0 0 9 9 .500 77 123 3.79 101 14
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/16/2012.

Surprised? I mean those are all pretty decent pitchers. Why would it be those guys? After the jump, I’ll explain why perhaps this shouldn’t be so surprising.

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Quiz – How did they end up on this list?

Sorry, couldn’t think of any clever title for this one.

Here is a short list of players to compile a most unusual season. In fact, no other players since 1901 have done so.

What are the season accomplishments that only these players have compiled?

Hint: there is a rookie playing this season who is currently on track to join this group.

Congratulations to Nick PainHe identified that these are the only players since 1901 to have a qualifying season with an extra-base hit total more than 50% larger than their RBI total (i.e. XBH > 1.5 * RBI). Zack Cozart, the Reds rookie shortstop, is on pace to join this group. He is also on pace for the lowest RBI total for any qualifying season with 15+ HR.

Is Darwin Barney baseball’s best defensive infielder?

Quick – who’s the best defensive 2nd baseman in baseball? Chase Utley? Robinson Cano? Dustin Pedroia? All fine second basemen, to be sure. But, as you’ve probably surmised by the title of this post, one answer to my question is perhaps an unlikely one.

Or, maybe you’re just thinking “Who the heck is Darwin Barney?”.

After the jump, I’ll look a little closer at Mr. Barney’s surprising season.

 

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Let youth be served: 2012 makes a mark

Earlier this month, Rangers’ second baseman Jurickson Profar (an early finalist for the All-Name team) made his major league debut, homering in his first PA, only the third time since 1918 that a player under age 20 has done that.

Rk Gcar Player Age Date Tm Opp Rslt PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BOP Pos. Summary
1 1 Jurickson Profar 19.195 2012-09-02 TEX CLE W  8-3 4 4 1 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 9 2B
2 1 Denny McLain 19.176 1963-09-21 DET CHW W  4-3 3 3 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 9 P
3 1 Ted Tappe 19.224 1950-09-14 (1) CIN BRO L  3-6 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 9 PH
4 1 Whitey Lockman 18.345 1945-07-05 NYG STL L  5-7 4 4 1 2 1 0 1 4 0 1 3 CF
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/3/2012.

The player on the list above who didn’t homer in his first PA is pitcher Denny McLain, who nonetheless homered in his first game and (as it turned out) for the only time in his career.

After the jump, I’ll look at bit more at these and other precocious players.

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Sunday NL Summary

A quick rundown of games from today’s NL action involving the leading teams.

Nats 4, Cardinals 3Stephen Strasburg went 6 scoreless against the Redbirds, who mounted a comeback immediately Strasburg made his departure. But, the Nats restored their lead for good with back-to-back 2-out RBI singles in the 8th off loser Lance Lynn, making his 3rd relief appearance since his removal from the starting rotation. Strasburg is now at 156.1 IP with two more starts promised before the much anticipated season shutdown, or rather the anticipation of whether that shutdown will actually happen.

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Saturday AL Summary

A quick rundown of games from today’s AL action involving the leading teams.

Tigers 5, White Sox 1 – Detroit closed to within a game of the AL Central-leading White Sox behind Max Scherzer‘s 9 strikeouts and only one walk over eight scoreless innings. It was Scherzer’s 15th win, matching his career high from last season. Since August 15th, Scherzer has four straight starts of 7 innings or more allowing 1 run or less.

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NL winner-take-all games

Following up from yesterday’s <a href=”https://www.highheatstats.com/2012/08/al-winner-take-all-games-and-the-new-wild-card-format/”>post</a> on AL winner-take-all games, here is the NL summary.

As mentioned in the earlier post, this is a remembrance of the very rare regular season winner-take-all game, before we see these games every year in the wild card playoff game (technically a post-season game, but likely to feel like a one-game playoff to qualify for the real post-season).

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As a reminder, for a winner-take-all game, I’m talking about regular season playoff games or final day of the season games where both teams can make the playoffs with a win, or miss the playoffs with a loss.

<span style=”text-decoration: underline;”><strong>National League</strong></span>

<strong>1.</strong> As in the AL, there was a close 3-way NL race in 1908 involving the Cubs, Pirates and Giants. After the scheduled games concluded, the Cubs won a make-up game with the Pirates to move a half-game ahead of the Bucs, whose season was now complete. Then, the Giants won three (apparently) make-up games with the Braves to tie the Cubs (and eliminate the Pirates), forcing completion of a final make-up game between New York and Chicago. The Cubs won 4-2 to complete their comeback, erasing the Giants’ 4.5 game lead on Sep 18 with a 14-2 finish while the Giants could manage only an 11-10 mark over the same period. Of course, the reason the Giants had to play that make-up game was because of a tie game between the clubs back on Sep 23rd. That game was called a draw on account of darkness, mainly because of a very long delay occasioned by tremendous confusion attending a certain play in the 9th inning of that contest. It was, indeed, the <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/merklfr01.shtml”>Fred Merkle</a> <a href=”http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merkle’s_Boner”>game</a>.

<strong>2.</strong> It was 1951 before the next winner-take-all <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NY1/NY1195110030.shtml”>game</a> occurred. Brooklyn, up 3 games on Sep 23rd, saw that lead evaporate with a 3-4 finish while the Giants ran off 7 straight wins to finish in a tie.  After splitting the first two games of a 3-game playoff, Brooklyn took a 4-1 lead into the 9th inning of game 3. But, starter <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/newcodo01.shtml”>Don Newcombe</a>, valiantly pitching in his 32nd inning of work in the space of only 8 days, finally ran out of gas, allowing a run-scoring double before leaving the game with one out and the tying runs in scoring position. Two pitches later, <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/brancra01.shtml”>Ralph Branca</a> gave up perhaps the most famous home run ever, <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/thomsbo01.shtml”>Bobby Thomson</a>’s shot down the very short left-field line at the Polo Grounds.

<strong>3.</strong> The Dodgers and Giants again provided the drama in 1962, but this time on the left coast. As in 1951, the Dodgers looked to be home and dry with a 4 game lead on Sep 23rd and only 7 games remaining, 6 of them in their shiny new home at Chavez Ravine. But, a 1-6 collapse teamed with a 5-2 Giants’ finish spelled another 3-game playoff. In <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SFN/SFN196210010.shtml”>game 1</a>, the Giants shocked the visitors with an 8-0 whitewash of Dodger ace <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/koufasa01.shtml”>Sandy Koufax</a>, who was replaced after only 7 batters. <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/koufasa01.shtml”>Game 2</a> was an epic struggle lasting 4 hours 18 minutes, setting a record for a 9-inning game that would stand for over 30 years. The Giants used 8 pitchers, tying the then record for a nine-inning game (excepting a stunt <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SLA/SLA194910021.shtml”>game</a> by Bill Veeck’s Browns, when a different pitcher was used each inning), before the Dodgers prevailed 8-7 on a walk-off <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fairlro01.shtml”>Ron Fairly</a> sac fly to score <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/willsma01.shtml”>Maury Wills</a>, then completing his record-setting 104 stolen base campaign. In the <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/LAN/LAN196210030.shtml”>finale</a>, as they had done 11 years before, the Dodgers took a multi-run lead into the 9th inning and again failed to hold it as the Giants parlayed 2 singles, 4 walks and an error into 4 runs and the lead. The Dodgers went meekly in order in the home 9th against game 1 CG winner <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/piercbi02.shtml”>Billy Pierce</a>, appearing in relief.

<strong>4.</strong> In 1980, both NL divisions went down to the final weekend and both with the protagonists playing each other. In the East, Philadelphia clinched on the 2nd last day against Montreal. In the West, the Astros took a 3-game lead into their final series against the Dodgers in LA, only to be swept and finish tied with the boys in blue. The Dodgers won the coin toss so the teams stayed put for a one-game <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/LAN/LAN198010060.shtml”>playoff</a> at Chavez. Having gone with their best pitchers to force the playoff, the Dodgers had no better option than journeyman <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/goltzda01.shtml”>Dave Goltz</a>, who proved no match for Astros ace <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/niekrjo01.shtml”>Joe Niekro</a>, logging his 20th win in an easy 7-1 CG triumph.

<strong>5.</strong> In 1996, the NL West race went down to the final weekend with the Padres visiting the Dodgers and needing a sweep to overcome a 2 game deficit. After San Diego won the first two to draw even with LA, the <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/LAN/LAN199609290.shtml”>finale</a> saw the two teams locked in a scoreless draw through 10 innings. In the 11th, singles by <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/finlest01.shtml”>Steve Finley</a> and <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/caminke01.shtml”>Ken Caminiti</a> put Padres on the corners with nobody out. Former Dodger <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gwynnch01.shtml”>Chris Gwynn</a> (playing alongside brother <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gwynnto01.shtml”>Tony</a> in their only season together) came up next to pinch-hit against <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/parkch01.shtml”>Chan Ho Park</a> and delivered a bases-clearing double to the right field gap, the last (and, very likely, the biggest) regular season hit of his career. <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hoffmtr01.shtml”>Trevor Hoffman</a> got the Dodgers in order in the home 11th to complete the series sweep.

<strong>6.</strong> In 1998, the Cubs and Giants finished tied for the NL wild card berth, forcing a one-game playoff to make the post-season. The Mets were also in the hunt, finishing just a game behind. Unusually, none of these teams were in the hunt for their respective division titles, so it was strictly a race for that one wild card spot. After play on Sep 20th, it looked to be a two team race between the Mets (88-69) and Cubs (87-70) with the Giants (83-72) seemingly out of it. But, 6 straight wins by San Francisco while the Mets went 0-4 and the Cubs 2-2 left the Cubs and Giants tied and the Mets a game back going into the last day. The Braves’ <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/maddugr01.shtml”>Greg Maddux</a> then dispatched the Mets in a 7-2 <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ATL/ATL199809270.shtml”>romp</a>, while the Cubs and Giants narrowly lost walk-off games to the <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/HOU/HOU199809270.shtml”>Astros</a> and <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/COL/COL199809270.shtml”>Rockies</a>, respectively. In the <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHN/CHN199809280.shtml”>playoff</a>, the Cubs took a 5 run lead into the 9th inning and then held on as the Giants made it interesting. <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/beckro01.shtml”>Rod Beck</a> (playing for the Cubs, not the Giants) came on to claim the save, retiring <a href=”http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cartejo01.shtml”>Joe Carter</a> in his final major league AB.

Like Boston in the AL, the winner-take-all game has been the true nemesis for the Dodgers.

So, until the wild card game a month from now, that’s it for the NL winner-take-all contests. Maybe I’ll grow to like the one game wild card playoff, but I hope not.

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