Back in 2010 the New York Yankees were in possession of a pair of talented minor league catchers by the names of Jesus Montero and Austin Romine. Both players were considered top-100 prospects by Baseball America and both players appeared to be on their way to long, prosperous careers. Romine was considered the finer defender of the two, topping out at #86 in Baseball America’s rankings while Montero was thought to be a powerhouse offensive force, ranking among the top 5 minor league players in the game. While Yankee fans spoke well of Romine they positively salivated at the idea of putting Montero’s prodigious power behind the plate as visions of 35 homer seasons danced in their heads.

There was a catch however. Montero’s defense was considered to be so shaky by the Yankees brain trust that rumors of him becoming a full-time DH were already circulating before he could even advance past Double-A Trenton. Scouting reports pegged Montero’s glove work as shoddy and his throw times to 2nd base as well below Major League average.

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Yeah, weird title, I know.

On my way to work every day, I pass a womens’ health clinic that offers, among many other services, abortions. Most days there is a small contingent of protesters outside the clinic, and one of them is usually holding a sign that reads “Women regret abortions.”

This sign always makes me think of baseball and statistics. If I saw someone holding up a sign reading “Joe Carter had over 100 RBI in his age 37 season!!” I would feel compelled to roll down the window and shout “but he sucked horribly that year with a 77 OPS+….77!!!”

Don’t get me started on the loon heralding Dante Bichette’s second-place MVP finish in 1995.

These are all examples of cherry-picked statistics that give the wrong impression without the complete picture. Joe Carter and Dante Bichette DID do those things, but they also sucked those seasons. Women who have abortions probably do experience feelings of regret, but how much more might they regret giving birth to a child they don’t want for some reason? I don’t think the sign about women regretting abortions presents anything close to the full picture.

Just to be clear, I’m not taking any side on the abortion issue–I’m just pointing out an everyday example of the type of statistical misuse we’re accustomed to seeing in baseball.

@Phillies 3, Reds 2: Did I read this right? With a 1-run lead, Aroldis Chapman started the 9th by walking Delmon Young, on 4 pitches. Then Cliff Lee pinch-ran — and got picked off. But never mind; Erik Kratz homered to tie it …

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Did I miss the fanfare? I found no mention of it in the news accounts. But according to the B-R Split Finder, when he led off the 6th inning Friday, David Ortiz became the all-time leader in plate appearances as a designated hitter.* He passed Harold Baines in his 3rd trip to the plate that night, which also became his 3rd single of the game. He later walked to help produce the winning run.

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Game of the Day

@Indians 5, Mariners 4: What disaster? On a shirtsleeve day in Cleveland, the unflappable Tribe shook off the top-half’s shocks and went straight to their work in the last of the 9th, and the lunchpail gang wound up with on-field congrats for the 2nd time in 18 hours.

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LOOGY, referring to the lefty one-out guy, a term coined by Rob Neyer when they became quite popular in the early 1990s.

Here’s a chart looking at single-batter lefty-reliever appearances over the years. Continue reading →

This basic plot shows the fraction of game starts made by left-handed pitchers.

Before making the plot, I had expected this percentage to generally increase over time. That’s clearly not the case.

I’m particularly interested in the major dip starting in 1993. This seems to coincidence with the Steroids Era. Does this suggest that the increase in offense during this period is due, in part, to lack of availability of left-handed starters? Or were fewer left-handed starters used for some other reason?

Bunch of exciting games today. You know which one I watched, so the rest of you gotta help me out!

Mets 3, @Cubs 2: Thirty-four years ago Friday, visiting SP Randy Lerch homered to cap a 7-run Philly 1st. He was knocked out after 6 batters in the bottom half. This afternoon, Matt Harvey gave up some loud drives early and one infield hit that scored 2 runs in the 1st. But the wind was blowing in, and he retired 20 of the next 21.

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Interesting trend reversal (at least so far) in 2013.

When the Los Angeles Angels announce over the winter that they had agreed to a deal with former Rangers’ slugger Josh Hamilton, the first thought that ran through my head was “Good God, pitchers aren’t going to stand a chance against this modern day murderer’s row.” Those thoughts didn’t change much throughout the spring and by the time April rolled around I, like so many others, felt that a lineup including the legendary Albert Pujols, the powerful Josh Hamilton, and the electric Mike Trout would be piling up runs like they were going out of style. After all, if they could rank among the 3 or 4 best scoring lineups in 2012 without Hamilton, just imagine how scary they would be with him plopped in the #4 hole.

But as we sit here on May 16th, nearly 40 games deep into the regular season, the Angels enter play with the 11th ranked scoring attack in the American League and one of the worst records in baseball. So what’s been the deal in L.A.? The Angels have done a solid job making contact at the plate (their 103 OPS+ is 6th best in baseball) and they’re starting to work the long ball, averaging just over 1 home run a game, so why are they stuck with one of the most mediocre looking attacks in the league? The answer, I believe, lies somewhere as simple as the base paths.

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