For the 2012 season, Baseball-reference.com’s formula for pitching Wins Above Replacement (bWAR) makes Tampa’s David Price the pitcher with the most bWAR among all left-handed pitchers in the majors, by a small margin over Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers and Matt Harrison of the Rangers (Harrison’s 6.2 pitching bWAR was the highest season total ever for a lefty pitching for the Rangers franchise, breaking Jon Matlack’s record from 1978).  Over the past five seasons, the bWAR formula has produced six different major league season leaders in the category of most pitching bWAR among lefty pitchers:

2012 David Price
2011 Cliff Lee
2010 Clayton Kershaw
2009 tie, C.C. Sabathia and John Lester
2008 Johan Santana

Over major league history, there have been several eras of this kind of extended multi-year diversity when looking at the top bWAR lefty in the majors each season, but there have also been periods of dominance by a single pitcher.  A full table of each season’s top lefty by pitching bWAR, going back to 1901, is after the jump, along with some notes on the list.   Continue reading →

Win Probability Added (WPA) is a stat that estimates how much the outcome of each plate appearance has changed the chances of each team’s winning the game, as compared to how those chances stood just before the plate appearance took place.  WPA assigns to the hitter the amount of that change as it affects the hitter’s team, and to the pitcher the amount of the effect on the pitcher’s team.    So, for example, just as Jayson Werth stepped to the plate for the Nationals in the ninth inning of Game 4 of the NLDS this season, Washington’s chances of winning the game were estimated (based on the score, the inning, the outs, and the man-on-base situation) at 67%.  After Werth hit his walk-off homer, those chances, obviously, rose to 100%, so Werth is awarded a +.33 amount of WPA for that plate appearance, while Lance Lynn, who threw the home run pitch, has a -.33 WPA applied to his account.  If you add up a player’s WPA for each of his plate appearances in a game you get his total WPA for that game.  Any player with more than a few games played in his career will have some games in which his WPA comes out positive and some where it comes out negative.

David Freese’s +.97 WPA in the sixth game of the 2011 World Series was the highest one-game WPA for any hitter in the history of the major league post-season, breaking the record previously set by Kirk Gibson’s limping, pinch-hit walk-off home run in Game 1 of the 1988 World Series.  But what about the Anti-Freese, the hitter with the absolute worst, the most negative, WPA over a single post-season game?  More about that after the jump. Continue reading →

In for a dime, in for a dollar….

In a recent post, I debunked a published quote by Vida Blue complaining that his 1971 home starts had been juggled so as to coincide with Monday’s Family Night promotion. Now I’m reading Dan Epstein’s joyous Big Hair and Plastic Grass: A Funky Ride Through Baseball and America in the Swinging ’70s. Touching on Blue’s 1972 contract holdout, Epstein writes that Blue in ’71 had been “drawing thousands of extra fans, at home or on the road, whenever he pitched.”

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High Heat Stats turns one year old today!

This blog, on highheatstats.com, has been around since February, but I first opened our temporary home on Blogger 1 year ago today.

I just wanted to say thanks to all of our great readers and writers for making this such a great place.

Also, here’s a little more info on the project I’m working on. I mentioned before that something big is brewing. I told you that some of our writers will be involved. I have also commissioned several artists to produce original artwork, and this artwork is a key part of what we’re doing–meaning it’s NOT that I’m just getting a few book illustrations. I can also share that the final product of this effort will be something physical, as opposed to an e-book, web site, or other electronic medium.

All will be revealed in the first week of December when we launch a major campaign around this project.

Sad and shocking news today that Pascual Perez was killed during a home invasion robbery in his native Dominican Republic. Here is  a brief tribute to one of the most entertaining players of his (or any other) time.

Perez came up in the Pirates’ organization, getting off to an impressive start in 1981, going 2-0 with 1.38 ERA in his first 3 starts. But, it was all downhill from there, going 0-7, 5.07 the rest of the way. Starting 1982 in the minors, the Pirates dealt Perez to Atlanta in mid-year, where he posted a fine half-season of 123 ERA+ and only 1.9 BB/9. That showing earned Perez a rotation spot in a fine 1983 season that garnered him an All-Star selection in his first year as a full-time regular.

In 1984, his performance started to slide, down to 103 ERA+, although he finished the season on the upside with a 3.00 ERA in August and September. The wheels came off in a dreadful 1985 season of 1-13, 6.14, and the Braves released Perez in the spring of 1986.

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As I’m a bit of a Hall of Fame fanatic, and there is no shortage of discussion about the BBWAA ballot, but not nearly as much when it comes to the Veterans Committee, I thought I’d take a look at the upcoming Pre-Integration Era Ballot.

The Pre-Integration Committee will consider candidates for the Hall of Fame who made their greatest contributions to the game in the era spanning 1871-1946. This, of course, will include a number of seemingly forgotten 19th century players. Surprisingly, though, it hasn’t been that long since a 19th century player was inducted, as Bid McPhee was so honored in 2000. Continue reading →

The 2012 World Series has come and gone, with a number of players on both teams (Joaquin Benoit, Jose Valverde, Prince Fielder, Marco Scutaro, among others)  making their World Series debut. Other players, though, have gone their entire careers without ever having a moment on baseball’s biggest stage. This piece is a tribute to those men.

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Here’s an interesting set of players–these are guys with at least 20 batting runs, no more than 400 plate appearances, and a ratio between the two of at least 8 batting runs per 100 PAs.

Pretty interesting, huh?

A few random notes:

• It’s awesome to see two members of the 2010 Twins on the same list.
• Kevin Mitchell (1994), Matt Williams (1995), and Gary Sheffield (1995) all did it in strike-shortened seasons.
• Johnny Grubb rarely played full-time. After his Age 27 season, he had 10 years where he didn’t top 400 plate appearances, and only 1 where he did. The guy finished with a 121 OPS+ in his career.
• Hubie Brooks put up his best season (rate-wise, at least) in 1986, posting a 161 OPS+ despite a career mark of 100.

With the Giants’ impressive sweep of the 2012 World Series, the National League claimed its third straight championship.  The senior circuit has won each of the last three All-Star Games, affording its membership home field advantage in all three World Series.  They’ve then vanquished their cross-newspaper rivals each time, only once playing enough games to render that advantage meaningful.  That’s 15 wins and four losses for the small-ballers when it counts.

The only argument against the Nationals’ dominance is those pesky interleague games in the regular season, of which the burly sluggers have won 53.8% (407-349) since 2010.  The message is clear: the American League is assembling the talent to compete its double-switching counterparts, but the junior circuit lacks the grit, hustle, and determination to win when it matters.

I recommend that the AL trade for Marco Scutaro this offseason.  And see if they can get David Eckstein back.

Some folks keep writing that the Giants have gotten the breaks so far.

Breaks? Don’t break my heart!

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