Dalton joined me for lunch a few weeks ago in the land of lobster and oversized novelty boots.  We got to talking about Barry Bonds, offensive environments, and asterisks.  Both of us are irked by fans willing to completely ignore individual accomplishments based on single factors like PEDs or Coors Field.

Rather than removing these numbers from history with asterisks, official or personal, the thinking fan, we agreed, has an obligation to adjust certain individual accomplishments for context.  Roger Maris had eight more games in which to hit his 61 homers than Babe Ruth got to hit his 60.  Mark McGwire took 3,500 CCs more androstenedione than Maris in hitting his 70.  Barry Bonds got to play six more games in Coors Field than McGwire when he hit his 70 (but also played 78 more in San Francisco).  While some of these factors are more difficult to control for, we should be able to determine who hit the most home runs relative to his peers.

Continue reading →

A debate has been underway in the comments here at HHS today — would Ichiro Suzuki have made it to 4,000 major league hits had he played a full career in MLB?  Keeping in mind that Ichiro’s first season in MLB was his age 27 season and he is currently in his age 39 season, let’s look at some numbers, after the jump. Continue reading →

After popping his 49th homer of the season against the Yankees on Tuesday night, slugger Chris Davis now stands just 1 blast shy of the Baltimore Orioles single-season record, set by Brady Anderson back in 1997. Davis still has an outside shot at making a run at Roger Maris‘ AL record of 61 homers as well, but that’s looking a little bit more like wishful thinking as we wind toward October.

But even without the AL home run record, what Chris Davis has done this season has been nothing short of phenomenal. He’s entirely remade his swing, showed remarkable plate discipline, and perhaps most importantly, Davis has finally figured out how to hit an off-speed pitch.

Continue reading →

… and we’re back, with a few quick notes.

Yankees 5, @Orioles 4 — Tommy Hunter kept the O’s tied through the 8th, retiring A-Rod with a man aboard. Buck Showalter let him start the 9th against Robinson Cano. Whoops.

Continue reading →

These are all speedy players (at least 130 career stolen bases, and 25 or more at least twice), And, they have a bit of pop in their bats (at least 90 career HR, and double digits at least twice). But, these are the only players since 1901 with a particular season batting feat.

What is this unusual batting accomplishment?

Congratulations to bells! He identified that these are the only players with a season of more than 60 extra-base hits, but at least 10 fewer RBI (alternatively, a season of 50+ RBI and at least 10 more XBH produces the same result).

Continue reading →

Here’s the news story from Dan’s announcement that he was leaving the game… for FOOTBALL.

It’s the moment all the High Heat Stats OOTP League prospects have been waiting for—you’ve been drafted (well, almost all of you) and you’ve played some games! I simmed through the end of the 2013 season, so you’ve got a half season of games under your belt.

The biggest news:

• We had a player quit and leave baseball… for football. Seriously, Mr. McCloskey? What the hell are you thinking? And that came after you won the Outstanding Hitter Award in your league? Sheesh.
• Five players failed to sign with their clubs and will be in next year’s draft. This includes Rich Warren (3rd overall by the Rockies) and Bill Brockman (6th overall by the Red Sox).
• One player (Luis Gomez) wasn’t even drafted for some reason (I’m guessing it was an error on my part when entering his eligibility). No worries. He signed on with the Rockies (who were shunned by Mr. Warren) and played at four levels, becoming the first of our merry group to reach AA.
• Dalton, despite his weak intelligence, was the first of the group to be drafted. The Cubs took him second overall, giving him almost $7 million. Who was #1 overall? It was a fictional guy I made by mistake and couldn’t remember his name (so I couldn’t delete him). Oops. I probably cost Dalton even more money.
• Three players were actually put on waivers and signed on with new clubs. Baltimore gave up on Bryan O’Connor, but Houston nabbed him. The Yankees waived Darien Sumner, but the Marlins came calling. The Marlins also picked up CJ Miller, who the Cardinals allowed to get away. I don’t understand why these players were waived.
• Ryan Hennesy was the only one to suffer a serious injury. He missed about six weeks.
• Of the 29 of us who were drafted, 28 were taken within the first 49 picks. Andrew Tarwerdi had to wait until the fifth round. He’s taking it out on all his opponents to the tune of a 155 OPS+.

Here’s how we all did:

Continue reading →

Coming into this season the NL East was not supposed to be particularly close. There was projected to be 1 terrible team, 2 mediocre teams, 1 team contending for one of the wild card spots, and 1 team competing  for the leagues best record. That is exactly how it has turned out, just not with the teams we had in mind. The Nationals, at least in my opinion, were supposed to be chasing 100 victories, and instead have struggled with injuries and poor hitting. They are currently one spot out of the 2nd wildcard, but are 7 games behind Cincinnati. The Braves, who I assumed would be an above average team, have been flat out great. Atlanta has the best winning percentage in the league, and only second to St. Louis for the NL lead in run differential.   They lead the Majors in ERA at 3.20. That isn’t an AL/NL DH fluke either, they also lead in ERA+ at 122. A lot of that is propelled by a dominant bullpen, but still their starters rank 6th in ERA at 3.61. That is not just because they have some great defensive players in Andrelton Simmons and Jason Heyward. They also rank 6th in starters FIP. The problem, if you can call it a problem, is they have too many quality starting pitchers. They have 6 pitchers currently pitching regularly in the rotation. They do not have a 6 man staff in the traditional sense, a lot of it is necessitated by injuries, but Fredi Gonzalez has sneaked in starts by other guys to get pitchers rest. It is fun to give Gonzalez crap for his many boneheaded decisions, but I think he has handled the staff very well this year. However come playoff time he will only need 4 of these pitchers in the starting rotation and they have all pitched well. It won’t be easy to choose who to go with. Continue reading →

Last night, the Yankees put Alex Rodriguez in the second spot in the batting order for the first time in years.  However, he’s not exactly a novice in that spot.  Indeed,  he is tied for the record for most RBI in a season from the #2 spot in the batting order:

Most RBI in a Season, From Each Spot in the Batting Order (1916-2013)
#1 spot: Darin Erstad (2000) 100 RBI
#2 spot: Alex Rodriguez (1998) and Eddie Mathews (1959) 114
#3 spot: Babe Ruth (1921) 168
#4 spot: Hack  Wilson (1930) 191
#5 spot: Jimmie Foxx (1932) 169
#6 spot: Glenn Wright (1925) and Tony Lazzeri (1926) 110
#7 spot: Ken Keltner (1938) 111
#8 spot: Babe Dahlgren (1939) 89
#9 spot: Kevin Elster (1996) 92

After the jump, similar lists for Home Runs, Runs, Runs Created and Hits. Continue reading →

Here’s Dalton’s player page in our OOTP league. He’s looking like a pretty nasty pitcher, but likely projects to be a reliever.

Last week, I announced a new experiment using Out of the Park Baseball. 30 High Heat Stats authors and readers have been added to the 2013 draft pool. Lets see who’s going to have the best career!

Before I conduct the draft, I figured I’d link to everyone so the can check out their player page. If you try navigating between pages of the league almanac, you may encounter some broken links. I’m still trying to master the export process. In fact, that’s why I’m doing this experiment—to learn the latest version of OOTP. I’ve been using older versions for a dozen years, but my has it grown up!

Without further adieu, here we are… the High Heat Prospects!

Continue reading →

@Orioles 4, White Sox 3 (10 inn.) — One out away from a loss, Matt Wieters got a hanging slider from Addison Reed and singled home 2 runs, stealing a third straight win against the reeling ChiSox and pulling the O’s within one game of a wild card.

Continue reading →