Wild Card and Division Series Musings

We’re through the wild-card round and almost through the division series. A brief snapshot of some of the more notable performances is after the jump.

Wild Card

Three of the series went the distance and the fourth was, as expected, a bit of a mismatch.

The Guardians made an historic late season charge to overtake the faltering Tigers, a run that included winning 5 of 6 against Detroit. Their reward for claiming the AL Central title – one more series against the Michigan side. When it mattered most, the Tigers arrested their swoon to advance to the division round.

  • Tarik Skubal‘s 14 K’s in game 1 set an MLB record for a wild card game and tied Joe Coleman‘s Tiger record for any post-season game. The Tigers capitalized on Guardian errors for their two runs, but Cleveland failed to do so when a Tiger 9th inning miscue put the tying run at 3rd with nobody out.
  • Cleveland blew open a tied game with a pair of eighth inning homers to take game 2, the kill shot a 3-run blast by catcher Bo Naylor; it was the Guardians first ever 3 or 4-run homer in the 8th inning or later when facing elimination. For the Tigers, it was a case of deja vu, as the Guardians also beat them with a monster blast (Lane Thomas‘s grand slam) to clinch Cleveland’s triumph in game 5 of last season’s ALDS.
  • Despite his top bullpen arms being used in both of the preceding games, Guardian manager Stephen Vogt had a quick hook for Game 3 starter Slade Cecconi, pulling him from a scoreless game with one out in the 3rd and runners at the corners. The game stayed close until the 7th when Cleveland’s Hunter Gaddis, pitching for the third straight day, couldn’t get out of a bases loaded, one out jamb, allowing three straight knocks to plate four and send Detroit to the ALDS.

The Yankees and Red Sox renewed their perennial rivalry, meeting for the 6th time in the post-season, and the second time in the wildcard round. The teams split the first two games, both tight and low-scoring, with the Yankees claiming the rubber match with a 4-0 whitewash.

  • Staff aces Garret Crochet and Max Fried dueled in the opener, with Fried leaving after six innings with a 1-0 lead. But, three batters into the 7th and that lead was gone, as Boston rallied against the Yankee bullpen for a 3-1 win. Crochet’s 11 K’s and zero walks marked just the third post-season start against the Yankees with double-digit strikeouts and nary a walk allowed; curiously, all three games were series openers at Yankee Stadium.
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr. channeled his inner Enos Slaughter, scampering home from first on a long single to break an eighth inning 3-3 tie, as the Yankees evened the series with a taut 4-3 win.
  • The finale matched two starters making their post-season debuts, the third such winner-take-all game, but the first in which those pitchers were both rookies. Boston’s Connelly Early (the only major leaguer with his first and last names both ending in “ly”) didn’t make it out of the 4th inning, as four hits, a walk and an error in that frame plated four for the home side. Yankee Cam Schlittler shut down the Red Sox over eight innings, whiffing a dozen with nary a walk or run allowed to tie the post-season record for strikeouts in such a start.

In a series with only eleven runs scoring in three games, the Cubs prevailed over the Padres, by 6-5 in runs and 2-1 in games, to advance to an NLDS matchup against the division rival Brewers. Batters were mostly subdued by bullpen arms, as only one of the six starters lasted even five innings, with the Padre bullpen covering 15⅔ of 25 innings in the series, and Cub relievers pitching 17⅔ of 27 frames.

  • Back-to-back jacks leading off the fifth inning put the Cubs ahead 2-1, en route to a 3-1 victory in the opener. That start to an inning was a post-season first for both clubs.
  • The fifth inning again proved decisive in game 2, as a two-run blast by Manny Machado extended the Padre lead to 3-0 and ended scoring for the game. With that result the Padres recorded their fourth consecutive wild card series with a team shutout.
  • In the finale, the Cubs jumped out to an early 2-0 lead, and the teams exchanged leadoff home runs late for a final 3-1 tally. Alas, the key play in the game may have been made by an umpire. After Jackson Merrill‘s leadoff jack in the 9th put the Padres on the board, Xander Bogaerts next worked a full count before getting punched out on a dubious 3rd strike call by home plate umpire D.J. Reyburn. Had a ball been called instead, and the inning played out as it did, the Padres would have tied the game with two out and the go-ahead run in scoring position.

The best-of-three wild card format was adopted to prevent a one-and-done matchup between two mismatched opponents, as had occurred in 2021 when the 106 win Dodgers faced the 90 win Cardinals. So, this year the 93 win Dodgers had to twice beat the 83 win Reds, which they did with dispatch in a pair of one-sided contests.

  • Five Dodger blasts powered the home side to a 10-5 victory in the opener. Included were two apiece by Shohei Ohtani and Teoscar Hernandez, the Dodgers’ second post-season game with two players having multi-home run games. But, it was the first time for any team with two such players in the opening game of any post-season series.
  • In game 2, the Reds scored the first two and last two runs of the game. In between, LA plated eight, led by three doubles from Mookie Betts, tying the NL post-season record now shared by 13 players. (Quiz: which player holds the AL record for doubles in a post-season game?) The Reds issued intentional walks to three different Dodger hitters, tying the post-season record for games with the DH rule in effect; the only other such game in which a team has clinched a series was Jack Morris‘s 10-inning shutout of the Braves to win the 1991 World Series for the Twins.

Watch this space for a future recap of the four Division series.

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Bob Eno
Bob Eno
29 days ago

The sustained drama of this baseball postseason, still only a little more than halfway through, has repeatedly led me to think about what has been lost and gained since the era when the “postseason” was simply a best-of-seven World Series. There’s no possible question that the 29 games played so far have generated far more excitement for far more fans in far more cities than the old seven-game Series ever did, and with luck (for ticket sales and media revenues) the count may still climb as high as 50 games, and with multiple themes of high drama. But there are… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
29 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Hey! Why not a round robin double elimination tournament to prolong the excitement? Thirty teams! Anything might happen! We’ve already pretty much abandoned the idea of deciding who’s the better in each league based on a grueling 162 games to decide that particular point. Maybe those White Sox and Rockies will get hot!

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
28 days ago

The playoff system began the year of the Miracle Mets, and having endured the slapstick of the Mets’ early years I was incensed that despite having recorded (with or without Divine intervention) by far the best record in the NL, they had to win a best-of-five playoff with the Braves — a far more powerful team. From the first day of that series I became an implacable foe of the “postseason” (even though the Mets swept that series and achieved what I believed to be the acme of all that could be wished for that season: winning one World Series… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
28 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Bob, NSB, You’re preaching to the choir. The bye killed the Phillies’ bats this year and the Braves suffered as well for winning the division in prior years. The Wild Card(s) is supposed to be a ‘good’ thing that keeps fans interested (and buying tickets) in their .500 teams into September. I understand the 17-game season of the NFL necessitating expanded playoffs but logic indicates 162 games should determine the singular most playoff-worthy team (or two). Bud Selig expanded this fiasco and, if there is any justice, the Dodgers sweep his beloved Brewers in four 🙁 Interleague play stinks as… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
27 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

Paul and nsb, I’m beginning to feel like we’re at a table, the only customers left in a Rust Belt bar with a black-and-white TV by the jar of pickled eggs . . . . Hey, Doug — can we get some beer over here! Obviously, there’s no going back. The old format with its sleek tensions building up to the pennant race stretch and the Series was fine for two eight-team leagues, but expansion in some form was a moral necessity (although overshadowed by a business opportunity), and now two insular fifteen-team leagues has obvious fatal defects. There is… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
27 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Bob
4 x 8 teams makes for 2 expansion teams…. AL / NL 2 divisions each. 7 x 14 = 98 games in your own division, 8 x 8 = 64 games versus your league’s other division. Four division champions…. and, to satisfy MLB’s need for expanded playoffs, best of 9 LCS, 9 game WS.

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
26 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

Yes, two more teams need to be added to make this work. I have no doubt MLB will add them sooner or later. But I envision no “divisions” in this utopia. Just as the Continental League would not have been a division of any league, just a league, I’m envisioning four 8-team leagues with the type of limited autonomy that used to exist for the AL and NL from 1920 until the dissolution of league presidencies. (An MLB superstructure would remain for things like labor contracts, player drafts, most personnel rule enforcement or league-rule appeals, overall media and licensing contracts,… Read more »

Last edited 26 days ago by Bob Eno
Paul E
Paul E
26 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Bob,
Yes, I believe the phrase that best fits our musings is, “From your lips to God’s ears”. But, we can always dream…….

Doug
Doug
27 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Two games into the two LCS series and the likely pennant winners have already been determined. Guess what – it’s the two teams with the better starting pitching!

The playoff system puts a lot of obstacles in the way, but cream usually still finds a way to rise to the top.

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
24 days ago

Last year there was talk of Shohei Ohtani’s six-hit, three-HR, two-SB ten-RBI game against the Marlins as the greatest offensive game ever. Arguable, but just having an argument to make for it signals a major accomplishment for Otani. What players have had games that complete with Ohtani’s two-way game yesterday (putting aside that it was in the postseason . . . among postseason games it was about as low-stakes as a game can get)? One name that comes to mind is the immortal Tony Cloninger. On July 3, 1966, Cloninger pitched Atlanta (35-45) to a 17-3 win over the first-place… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
23 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Well, here another: Rick Wise, June 23, 1971 against the Cincinnati Reds, which the Phillies won 4-0: Pitching: 9 IP / 0 H / 0 R / 1 BB / 3 K / 89 GSc Batting: 4 PA / 4 AB / 2 R / 2 H / 3 RBI / 2 HR / 8 TB Wise came within one walk (6th inning, to Dave Concepcion!) of a perfect game. He was facing a line-up that included Bench, Rose, Foster, and Perez. I remember reading about the game but not that Wise hit two HRs. (Surprising — I liked Wise… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
22 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Bob,

A friend of mine won a charity auction for a spring training “Dream Week” with some retired Phillies in Clearwater Florida one spring in the early 1990’s. While at dinner, Rick Wise observed something along the order of, “If they like you, they’ll give you every chance to succeed. If they don’t like you, they’ll give you one chance to fail.”

Pretty much sums up the politics of baseball………..

Paul E
Paul E
22 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Bob,
Five times Ferrell hit 2 HRs in a game. The link below is probably his best pitching performance of the five:

https://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/1934/B08220BOS1934.htm

I didn’t check Newcombe or Drysdale…

no statistician but
no statistician but
21 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

10 inning complete game and a walk off home run? Gets my vote.

Paul E
Paul E
22 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Carlos Zambrano goes 8 innings, drives in four while surrendering a single hit:

https://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/2006/B06050HOU2006.htm

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
20 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

Let’s take stock of our candidates so far, in chronological order: Ferrell [8/22/1934-score 3-2]: 10 IP / 7 H / 2 R – 1 ER / 1 BB / 5 K / 76 GSc 5 PA / 4 AB / 2 R / 3 H / 2 RBI / 2 HR / 9 TB …..(Includes 10th inning 2-out walkoff solo HR) …..Opponent, CWS 41-76 (8th) [season, 53-99, 8th of 8] Cloninger [7/3/1966 – score 17-3] 9 IP / 7 H / 3 R – 3 ER / 2 BB / 5 K / 64 GSc 5 PA / 5 AB / 2 R… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
19 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Bob,
I don’t believe it tops Ohtani or Wise but I forgot how well Earl Wilson hit…. how about 3 for 4 with a HR, BB, and 5 RBI while surrendering a single run in this CG performance:

https://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/1966/B08130BOS1966.htm

He led the AL in WAR (7.7) and pWAR (5.9) that same year. Yes, that 7.7 WAR performance topped Triple Crown MVP-winning Frank Robinson

Paul E
Paul E
19 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

more Wilson – or, a very similar performance of 4 RBI with a HR while surrendering a single run in a CG:

https://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/1968/B08300DET1968.htm

Paul E
Paul E
19 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

Bob,
Earl Wilson homers in the 3rd inning and goes on to throw a no-hitter:

https://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/1962/B06260BOS1962.htm

This is pretty close to the Rick Wise game….IMNSHO

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
19 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

No question, Paul. This is the closest performance to Wise we’ve found so far (GSc 88 no-hitter + HR vs. Wise’s 89 + 2HR). It would fall into a class with no-hit games where, as they used to say, a pitcher “contributed to his own cause” with a significant AB. There have been three instances of pitchers hitting a single home run while pitching a no-hitter. In addition to Wilson, two familiar names: Tobin and Ferrell. Tobin (4/27/1944 – score, 2-0) vs. BKN: GSc 91 (one solo HR). Ferrell (4/29/1931 – score, 9-0 vs. SLB; GSc 92 (2-run HR, 2-run… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
19 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Regarding Wise’s performance, the 1971 Reds weren’t contenders but did appear in the 1970 and 1972 World Series and did lead the NL in runs scored in 1968 & 1969. I believe the issue in 1971 was the loss of the BT Express to an achilles tendon tear while playing hoops in the off season. A somewhat rushed George Foster was inadequate replacement in CF and at the plate at that point in his career. Tolan returned in ’72 and they took the pennant…….

Doug
Doug
20 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Jack Harshman drove in all of his team’s runs with 2 HRs and a double in a 3-2 CG win in this game. He allowed 9 hits (all singles; only three after the 2nd inning), struck out 9 and walked none.

Doug
Doug
20 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

The only other 3 HR game by a pitcher was by Jim Tobin in this 1942 game. His 3rd blast, a two-run shot, broke a 4-4 tie with two out in the 8th, and was the top WPA event of the game. His .665 WPA for the game is the 5th highest by a starting pitcher in any game with PBP data.

Like Ohtani, Tobin walked only three (in 9 IP, compared to Ohtani’s 6 IP), Unlike Ohtani, Tobin whiffed nobody.

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
20 days ago
Reply to  Doug

Cool detective work, Doug. So let’s see how they stack up: Harshman [9/23/1958 – score, 3-2] 9 IP / 9 H / 2 R – 2 ER / 0 BB / 9 K / 70 GSc 3 PA / 3 AB / 2 R / 3 H / 3 RBI / 2 HR / 10 TB ….(3 XBH; no XBH allowed) ….Opponent, WAS 61-87 (8th) [season, 61-93, 8th of 8] Tobin [5/13/1942 – score, 6-5] 9 IP / 5 H / 5 R – 3 ER / 3 BB / 0 K / 57 GSc 4 PA / 4 AB / 3 R / 3 H / 4 RBI / 3 HR / 12… Read more »

Doug
Doug
18 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Agreed on Wise. Just mentioned those two games, as they caught my eye as close contests. Harshman was actually extremely fortunate to get out of the second inning only two runs down, as 3 hits in each inning, even though all were singles, usually does more damage. To his credit, he found something after that inning, shutting out the Senators on three hits the rest of the way. Frankly, I was surprised that Tobin’s game was (and still is, actually) the only 3 HR game in which the player’s defensive position was pitcher for all three blasts. Ohtani’s one regular… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
18 days ago
Reply to  Doug

That’s a good distinction to make on Tobin’s game, and I’m happy he retains distinctive with a unique accomplishment. On the general issue of “greatest two-way game,” however, I don’t think it has any bearing (and I don’t read your comment as suggesting that it does).

no statistician but
no statistician but
21 days ago

Seattle is still the only franchise minus a trip to the World Series. A shame in one way, but not in another, since all-in-all Toronto was and is the best team in the AL, equalling the Dodgers in the NL, despite Milwaukee’s hot July and August. The Phillies had a better season record, too, but LA put them away 3 games to one and the Brewers 4-0. I’d call that decisive. The Dodger W-L record is deceptive anyway. Their pitching staff was full of holes due to injury, and the day to day lineup suffered that way, too, with Smith,… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
21 days ago

NSB, Fellow grouch here chiming in. I believe the NYY from a batting (11.2 WAA) and pitching (3.8 WAA) perspective had a total of 15 WAA which would, theoretically, give them 96 wins. Probably a few blowout wins effected the difference (94 actual Wins versus 96 projected Wins). To be honest, I have no idea if this is a correct observation on my part. I am suspecting that “average” is 81 wins…. In the case of the Brewers, it’s even closer. Milwaukee had 7.2 batting WAA and 7.7 pitching WAA for a total of 15 WAA. They had 97 wins… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
19 days ago

I think there’s no straight line between the sum of individual WAR (or WAA) and team wins. Actual wins involve both “brute” performance (OPS+/ERA+ production in general) and clutch performance (WPA), and clutch performance is heavily influenced by opponent strength in context (which specific pitchers/batters a player faces), which no stat currently measures. And the Pythagorean projection is meant to be a best approximation: a divergence of a couple of wins may have no statistical significance. I expect that one use of emergent AI for MLB is going to be the ability to scan full data sets of all situational… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
18 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Bob: If “there’s no straight line between the sum of individual WAR . . .and team wins”—which there obviously isn’t, might it not follow that the same is true for a connection between individual WAR and individual “wins” generally? I am more and more convinced that WAR as a descriptive phrase is nonsense. The metric gauges individual performance as defined by a set of assumptions about what is optimal, not by whether or not any winning results. But your expectation that AI will someday boil it all down to a perfect analysis and as a result that will be a… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
18 days ago

Well, nsb, to answer your second question first, I have no idea whether it would be a good or bad thing for AI to facilitate the type of statistical data crunching I envision, but I can say without fear of error that AI will not be playing baseball (it lacks the essential feature that even Class D players uniformly share: opposable thumbs). I don’t see AI in this respect as any more intrinsically threatening than Bill James’ Baseball Abstract was in its context. It had enormous impact on the course of the game — certainly not all for the better,… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
18 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Briefly, as I only have access to my phone for a few days, my point about the robots was not about evaluating past performance but programming them to behave in games on the basis of the perfected AI analytics, minus the human factor, thus producing the statistician’s paradise. Or hadn’t you noticed that the numbers mean far more than the game, which only exists for too many to generate the stats. Just to pick one player who comes to mind, Lou Brock: he changed the game of his time and had a great post-season career, was a shoe-in for the… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
18 days ago

I wish the whole world had access to a phone for only a few days! It would be a better place. You can have it both ways, nsb. Brock was an electric player (although I’d say that Wills, a lesser player, was the one who changed the game of his time) and certainly had a great post-season career. And we can also see from our perspective that he actually provided less value than we realized primarily because his fielding was a liability (plus he didn’t know how to draw a walk). There’s no contradiction there: both perspectives are valid and… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
15 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Reflecting further on nsb’s objections, I think my response missed an important distinction: that is, the difference between advanced metrics and advanced technology. Here are the key phrases in nsb’s comment, as I re-read it: “. . . programming [players] to behave in games on the basis of the perfected AI analytics, minus the human factor, thus producing the statistician’s paradise.” For fans the purpose of metrics is to create a secondary level of entertainment beyond the ballfield, but for teams, coaches, and players their main purpose is to increase the quality of their play so they win more games.… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
13 days ago

Saw a headline after Game 3 of the Series saying that the Jays were going to walk Ohtani henceforth, which they did not do in game 4, incidentally, and Ohtani went 0 for 3. Brought to mind last year’s Series when Ohtani went 2 for 19. Meanwhile Freeman, last year’s Series MVP, put an end to the misery after 17.5 innings in Monday’s affair.

Does anyone really care about this Series away from the fan base and Bob Eno?

Tom
Tom
13 days ago

Last year, Ohtani was playing with a separated shoulder.
Sounds like someone is jealous….

Paul E
Paul E
13 days ago
Reply to  Tom

Tom, NSB, I don’t know if Ohtani is the greatest baseball player of all time, but he certainly appears to be the best of the last 60 years. 50 homers, 50 steals, 125+ Runs, 400 total bases, AND 11+SO/9 IP? If this guy was born in southern California and had access to superior exercise and nutrition and played 12 months of the year, he’d be even better (by the same token, somebody in the American ‘system’ would probably have discouraged his pitching). He’s a guy who can only be stopped by serious injury. Regardless of whether the Dodgers win the… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
13 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

When I see Ohtani in the outfield for a season and can assess his defensive capabilities there, I’ll tell you whether I agree. Meanwhile, he isn’t the best pitcher in baseball, although he’s been very good in limited applications, except for the one qualifying season. But frankly, Trout for a few years, Judge currently, Bonds, despite his baggage, Schmidt, A-Rod . . . certainly if Ohtani continues another couple of years at the same approximate level as a hitter he’ll join those guys as an offensive force, but just DH-ing alone? Frank Thomas, in a different game environment, strikes me… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
12 days ago

NSB, I don’t believe we’re ever going to see him in the OF again. Unless, of course, he never pitches again. But, then again, he’s much more valuable as a SP than a RF, right? Right field might be the least valuable defensive spot on the field. I dunno…..I imagine the Dodgers don’t want to risk his arm in RF As far as all-round ability, I just don’t believe Trout, Thomas, Schmidt, Bonds, or A-Rod could have ever gotten major league hitters out. FWIW, Ohtani’s 2022 season of a mere 166 innings pitched resulted in the second highest pitching WAR… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
12 days ago

I’m very much in agreement that the DH position places a serious limit on both subjective and objective measures of “greatness.” Although it is probably true that extremes of batting/pitching excellence are of far greater value than fielding excellence, in more general terms every base saved or allowed by an above/below-average fielding play is worth an equivalent batting event, and there are many opportunities for poor fielders (particularly those with low range factors who are not even in position to attempt many plays that average players execute) to almost invisibly erase the visible contributions they make at the plate. The… Read more »

Doug
Doug
10 days ago

World Series game 5 was the 19th post-season game (and third this season) with the DH rule in effect in which all 9 starters on a team struck out at least once. But, it was only the third such World Series game, the first two coming in the 2020 series (one by each team). This is the only such post-season game with all 9 starters on both teams striking out.

Doug
Doug
10 days ago

Most team games in a World Series with 8 or more starters getting a hit. 3 – 2014 Giants, 2005 White Sox, 1978 Yankees, 1960 Yankees 2 – 2025 Blue Jays*, 2011 Rangers, 2007 Red Sox, 1997 Marlins, 1993 Blue Jays, 1987 Twins, 1986 Mets, 1980 Phillies, 1979 Pirates, 1971 Pirates, 1965 Dodgers, 1965 Twins, 1953 Yankees, 1951 Yankees, 1933 Giants, 1925 Pirates, 1923 Yankees, 1919 Reds, 1912 Giants, 1910 Athletics, 1909 Tigers, 1903 Americans *active The bolded teams lost the series, so teams with two or more such games in a World Series have won the series 20 out… Read more »

Last edited 10 days ago by Doug
no statistician but
no statistician but
10 days ago

(My count may be off by one or two, but) with Friday’s game result this becomes the 41st 7-game World Series. Again by my blurry-eyed reckoning, the previous 40 match-ups, contrary to what ought to be the sense of things, are almost evenly divided in result between home advantaged and visiting disadvantaged teams. It is a bizarre fact that in the longest string of four games to three outcomes—1955-6-7-8—the team with four home games lost the Series every time. Hardly ever does a team play better on the road than at home, generally much worse—you can look it up—but somehow… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
10 days ago

This is a very interesting phenomenon, nsb, and there is a sub-group that is even stranger. In 1955 the Dodger-Yankee Series looked like it was going to be a home-team-takes-all affair through six games, but the Dodgers won the finale in Yankee Stadium and thereby became the first team ever to lose the first two games of a seven-game Series and yet prevail. The Home/Away patter for the Series was HH-HHH-HA (which the Yankees didn’t think was as funny as it looks). Among the first 51 Series this had never happened before. It didn’t take long for it to happen… Read more »

Last edited 10 days ago by Bob Eno
Paul E
Paul E
9 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Bob,

I believe this series was watched by more people worldwide than any in recent memory due to the international interest in foreigners from Japan and Latin America playing preeminent roles as well as a Canadian Club (hahaha) potentially drowning in their sorrows or champagning it up in victory.

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
9 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

I was just channeling nsb’s humor from a few days ago, Paul. It was an almost barbarically gripping Series, and I’m sure you’re right or close to it for that reason and for the ones you named. I’ve been a Dodger fan first and foremost for over seventy years (albeit with strong secondary loyalties to the Mets and Tigers that emerged in the ’60s). I feel good that the Dodgers won. But I feel unusually bad that the Blue Jays lost. I don’t just mean I feel empathy for Toronto fans, though I do. I mean I feel bad myself,… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
8 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Bob: For the second year running the Dodgers have gotten their talent together postseason after injury and lackluster performance made one wonder whether this collection of stars might not be getting in each other’s way during the regulation 162 games. Can’t miss teams have crashed before in that manner. And unlike the Boys of Summer, who were also the best team on paper, this crew has come through at the end, partly due to superior pitching by a staff so deep that injuries weren’t catastrophic to the cause, one pitcher coming off the DL to compensate for another’s going down.… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
8 days ago

As in many things, nsb — though by no means all — you and I differ in our approaches to season outcomes. Perhaps it’s a product of all those years sitting in the Polo Grounds rooting for sad-sack Mets teams, but I feel a lot of pleasure seeing teams that have good reason to be underdogs upset the odds. After all, what does justice have to do with the 1969 World Series, my touchstone for happy thoughts on gray days? In 1968, as a devoted NL fan, I rooted for the St.L Cardinals (completely inconsistent — I’d rooted for the… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
7 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Bob,
“….- for many years I had occasion to recall that game publicly and in some detail during an annual lecture I gave to students on an ancient Chinese divination text.”

Congratulations to you, Robert! You must be thrilled to see the most improved program in the recent history of NCAA football return to the glory days of Johnny Pont and John Isenbarger (1967 Cinderella) and maybe even Pete Pihos and Ted Kluszewski (1945 9-1 Western Conf champs)! Cignetti is a genius!

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
7 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

Ah. Google has outed me. It’s more of a chill than a thrill, Paul. College and professional sports have entirely different missions, and the school I retired from has dramatically lost the distinction. Moreover, while it currently is second-ranked in football among all public (and non-public) universities, it has fallen from a strong position to the worst-ranked public college/university in America for academic freedom. This not a trade-off that I can feel good about. I don’t want to get on a non-MLB soapbox on HHS, but since you unintentionally offered the platform . . . I spent fifteen years trying… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
7 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

It’s in the hands of the administration…. from Day 1, it’s been the “Ivory Tower” versus “Boosters & Alumni”. A fascinating history of the sport can be found in “College Football, History, Spectacle, Controversy” by John Sayle Watterson. (ca. 2000). As far as Cignetti, similar ironclad contracts were given to James Franklin at PSU and Brian Kelly at LSU. They weren’t hired to lose and now they’re getting paid to do nothing….about $100M together over the next six years or so. The history of Pitt football has been a see-saw of “we’re athleticly competetive’ and “we’re a leader in academics”… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
6 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

Paul, on the specifics of Cignetti’s contract, I’m not talking about longstanding tensions between academics and athletics, highlighted by exorbitant contracts and buyouts. The clause I’m referring to works the other way. Cingetti’s contract, proposed and negotiated by the university president and AD, specifies that were Cignetti to move to another school he would pay the university damages ($15m the first year). This is not in itself novel but those damages would be reduced by 50% if either the current president or AD were no longer employed by the university. This is not a matter of protecting the university; it… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
6 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Understood. I guess the UI trustees dropped the ball on that one? Forgive my mention of the ‘academics vs. athletics’ flux. I thought you were intimating the same with: ” I spent fifteen years trying to build support and create a blueprint for the reorientation of college sports to the academic mission of its schools — with the active support of the NCAA leadership — and we were overwhelmed by the massive new revenue sources that began to pour in from conference and external sports networks.” I am, too, dumbfounded how mens tennis/student athletes can make a trip from New Brunswick… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
6 days ago
Reply to  Paul E

Paul, At the beginning of the century there seemed to be a lot less gold and a lot more deficits. It was a prisoners’ dilemma: almost all college presidents were dying to throttle back, but antitrust laws and alumni pressure constrained them and competitive forces prevented any from acting on their own. (If you’re interested in why the pie-in-the-sky seemed possible to bake at the time, this NYT story captured the moment.)

Doug
Doug
6 days ago

The team with the home field advantage has also lost the last five 7-game World Series (2014, 2016-17, 2019, 2025); in those 35 games, the home team (in each game) is a collective 12-23 (.343).

Conversely, the team with the home field advantage has a 6-1 record in the other seven World Series in that period (since 2014), with the home team (in each game) posting a .500 record in the 38 games of those series.

Last edited 6 days ago by Doug
Bob Eno
Bob Eno
5 days ago
Reply to  Doug

Doug, I think you are mixing game and Series home-field advantages in a way that doesn’t work. In terms of Series victories (as opposed to game victories), the home field advantages vary depending on the length of the Series, not on the initial seven-game schedule. The only games that count for a Series home-team advantage are the fifth game of a Series that is 3-1 after four games, with the leading team playing at home (which has not happened in the time frame you’re looking at), and the seventh game of a seven-game Series. (In four and six game Series’… Read more »

Doug
Doug
4 days ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Yes, I’ve mixed apples and oranges. However, what I mean by “the team with the home field advantage” is the team with that advantage at the outset of the series (i.e. the team starting the series with two home games). So, since 2014, those teams are 0-5 in 7 game World Series, but 6-1 in World Series decided in fewer than 7 games. As to what the heck is going on, it would appear it’s tough to beat a league champion, no matter where you play the game. That’s especially true for a game 7 since such series have already… Read more »

Last edited 4 days ago by Doug
Tom
Tom
6 days ago

Freddie Freeman is the Dodger party MVP. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gUjvRHaSmwk

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
2 days ago

I was about to introduce a new topic — and will a bit later — but as I prepared to type it my eye was caught by the first comment in this string, which I posted four weeks ago. It concerned the downsides of the extended playoff format MLB has adopted, and other curmudgeons (nsb and Paul E) joined in. I made two basic observations about the 50-game playoff format. The first concerned the way that regular season records and dramatic finishes were effectively washed from history by the contemporary postseason. The second concerned the necessarily waning intensity of postseason… Read more »

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
2 days ago

The new topic I wanted to discuss concerns an ancient and now little celebrated statistic: championship batting averages. As an NL fan I grew up at a time when BA was the gold-standard stat, and took great pleasure in the fact that it was the AL that held the record for lowest championship batting average: Elmer Flick’s .306 average in 1905, which has since been revised to .308 (presumably through some Russian disinformation campaign). That year, the AL as a league batted a dismal .241 with only three .300 hitters (Wee Willie Keeler hit .302 and the celebrated Harry Bay… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
1 day ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Advanced Batting League Totals:

AL 1968  WPA  -10.1%
NL 2025  WPA  -55.6%

AL 1968  RE24  (+) 35.1%
NL 2025  RE24  -103.3%

Win Probability Added: Given average teams this is the change in probability caused by (this) batter during the game. A change of +/- 1 would indicate one win added or lost.

RE24 (Base Out Runs Added): Given the bases occupied/out situation, how many runs did the batter or baserunner add in the resulting play. Compared to average, so 0 is average and above 0 is better than average.

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
1 day ago

This is quite striking, nsb. I’m not sure how you tie these measures, which relate to game-context, to the apparent height of the BA Bell Curve, which is what I was commenting on. (Or perhaps you’re just introducing a different interesting topic.) The 1968 AL and 2025 NL are playing substantially different games: ’68 AL: R/G 3.41 … .230/.297/.339 ’25 NL: R/G 4.47 … .247/.317.402 To use “clutch” measures may miss the fact that in a run-starved environment there may be many more clutch situations (fewer lopsided blowouts) than in a run-rich environment. But, more basically, I’m unclear how “average”… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
1 day ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Just guessing, but TTO probably comes into play a lot in explaining these differences.

Don’t ask me how.

no statistician but
no statistician but
1 day ago

And yes, this doesn’t directly connect to your major query. I just started fishing around trying to find some startling difference between the two (league) seasons, and there weren’t any others that weren’t pretty self-explanatory and so unhelpful. But these leapt off the screen as being indicative of some major difference in the way the game was being played that might account for the lack of high average hitters in NL 2025.

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
5 hours ago

nsb, Can you guide me to the stat page you used for these figures? Somehow I can’t find it. The relevant comparison would be the two leagues in 2025 (or any year since the effectual merger of leagues was complete). Conceptually, on WPA, it seems to me that on the league level the WPA sum of all plays in every given game should be 100% and 0%, depending on the team, with responsibility for the totals allotted among batters, pitchers, and fielders: league totals +/- would indicate the variation from average in each of the three categories and should total… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
3 hours ago
Reply to  Bob Eno

Go to 2025 (or any year) NL (or Al or MLB) Team Statistics. Draw down the Batting Menu and click on Advanced Batting.

Bob Eno
Bob Eno
1 hour ago

Ah. I see it, nsb. I’m going to try to figure out the meaning of these figures, but I have a serious complaint to make. As soon as I saw your comment I realized that you have explained this to me before. I am distressed to learn that on a fine site like HHS there are participants who lack the ability to teach very simple techniques effectively. I encourage you to do better in the future!

Doug
Doug
1 day ago

The 1968 Indians pitchers were the first staff to strike out more batters than hits allowed. There wouldn’t be another such team until the 2003 Dodgers and Cubs, and there wouldn’t be another such AL team until the 2012 Rays. The 2018 NL was the first league to whiff more than it hit, while that was first true in the AL in 2020. As a league this season, the NL had more hits than whiffs for the first time since 2017. Ten of the fifteen NL teams were in positive territory compared to only three AL teams. Offensively since 2018,… Read more »

Last edited 1 day ago by Doug