In a competitive round of voting, with holdovers from previous rounds receiving almost all the support, Alan Trammell edged out John Smoltz, Bobby Grich, Lou Whitaker and others to become the 25th player inducted into the High Heat Stats Circle of Greats. The COG voting will be on a two-week hiatus as your host drifts out of fair territory but will be back in play mid-August to start the 1947 round. More on Alan Trammell, and on the latest voting results, after the jump.
Highest OPS by a Shortstop in a League Championship Series (min. seven PAs)
1. Alan Trammell (1984) 1.314 OPS
2. Nomar Garciaparra (1999) 1.255 OPS
3. Alex Rodriguez (2000) 1.253 OPS
4. Dave Concepcion (1975) 1.227 OPS
5. Rich Aurilia (2002) 1.221 OPS
Highest OPS by a Shortstop in a World Series (min. seven PAs)
1. Dererk Jeter (2000) 1.344 OPS
2. Alan Trammell (1984) 1.300 OPS
3. Edgar Renteria (2010) 1.209 OPS
4. Marty Marion (1943) 1.185 OPS
5. Granny Hamner (1950) 1.181 OPS
Trammell’s nine Total Bases in Game 4 of the 1984 World Series remains a record, unbroken and untied, for a shortstop in a World Series game.
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Most all-around WAR, MLB, 1980-1990 (baseball-reference version of WAR):
1. Rickey Henderson 80.5
2. Wade Boggs 62.9
3. Alan Trammell 59.1
4. Robin Yount 57.6
5. Cal Ripken 57.5
6. Mike Schmidt 56.3
7. Ozzie Smith 55.7
8. Dave Stieb 54.3
9. George Brett 51.6
10. Eddie Murray 50.8
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–This was a closely contested round, with four guys within six votes at the top.
–Only two votes were cast for players born in 1948, out of a total of 183 votes (on 61 ballots). The very competitive nature of the round seems to have discouraged voters from casting “shout-out” or “favorite son” votes.
–Robbie Alomar, who has been eligible for every one of the 25 ballot rounds we have held, but recently has been on the bubble each round, nudged over 25% this time, getting off the bubble at least for the moment.
–Smoltz, Whitaker, Grich and Edgar Martinez all also appeared on more than 25% of the ballots cast this round, and so expand the number of rounds they have assured ballot eligibility.
–Smoltz appeared on more ballots than he has in any round since the 1964 round, 20 rounds ago.
–Ted Simmons fell a couple of votes short of the minimum needed to remain eligible, and thus loses his place on the ballot.
–With Trammell inducted and Simmons dropping off, the holdover list will be reduced from 13 players this round to 11 for the next round. Five will continue to be on the bubble: Sandberg, Murray, Winfield, Reuschel and Lofton.
As usual, you can check out the complete voting record for this past round at Google Docs. The link is here: COG 1948 Vote Tally
If you would like to review the history of the COG voting, a spreadsheet summary of the voting is here: COG Vote Summary , with a summary of the raw vote totals on Sheet 1 and a summary of the percentage totals on Sheet 2.
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The commenter who uses the screen name bells usefully suggested that the list of players inducted in the Circle of Greats so far, which is included at the end of each of these results posts, is getting a little long to be left completely un-annotated and organized solely by alphabet. For now at least, let’s try something new by categorizing the list by the position each player filled the most often during his career.
The Circle of Greats membership thus far:
Bert Blyleven, P
Roger Clemens, P
Tom Glavine, P
Randy Johnson, P
Greg Maddux, P
Mike Mussina, P
Curt Schilling, P
Gary Carter, C
Mike Piazza, C
Jeff Bagwell, 1B
Wade Boggs, 3B
George Brett, 3B
Mike Schmidt, 3B
Barry Larkin, SS
Cal Ripken, Jr., SS
Ozzie Smith, SS
Alan Trammell, SS
Robin Yount, SS
Rickey Henderson, LF
Tim Raines, LF
Barry Bonds, LF
Tony Gwynn, RF
Larry Walker, RF
Paul Molitor, DH
Frank Thomas, DH
Funny that – no 2nd basemen in yet, the only position with a void. Time for Sweet Lou and Grich to get in.
Check that, no CF in yet either.
But plenty of games played in center, between Yount and the corner OFs who sometimes played there.
Pretty great 25-man roster. Lineup against lefties:
1. Henderson, lf
2. Bonds, cf
3. Thomas, dh
4. Schmidt, 3b
5. Walker, rf
6. Bagwell, 1b
7. Ripken, 2b
8. Carter, c
9. Smith, ss
Lineup against righties:
1. Raines, cf
2. Schmidt, 2b
3. Bonds, lf
4. Thomas, dh
5. Brett, 1b
6. Carter, c
7. Gwynn, rf
8. Smith, ss
9. Boggs, 3b
I’m pretty sure Ripken and Schmidt can handle 2b defensively, particularly with Ozzie covering half the infield at short. I’d rather have Carter’s defense and Piazza’s bat off the bench. Let’s start Maddux and let Clemens and Johnson match up in the bullpen in the late innings.
Bring on the next 25 guys.
Ozzy’s defense is not that much better than a healthy Barry Larkin and their bats aren’t comparable. Similarly, Molitor is well experienced and competent at the keystone. Other notes, you’d put barry in left and rickey in center. Bond’s arm is terrible.
Why would you bench Rickey against Righties? Really? His OBP is only 0.019 worse against righties(and his rhp obp is greater than raines no matter how you slice it, career or peak). Speed is also more effective against righties than lefties when he’s on first. Neither match the power Ricky had against lefties when their facing righties. Raines can pinch run.
Your right field is also peculiar. Walker and Gwynn are both lefties but walker is the one with the bigger platoon split. If you were going to platoon them, you’d start them in reverse of what you said. Better yet, talk Piazza into playing the corner outfield against left handed pitching. It’s a crime to leave out his bat in a platoon role.
Seriously, Ricky has a career .395 OBP against RHP. There are few right handed hitters ever born who can say that. In 1990, he OB’d .446 against righties (in 434 PA)! Let the man do his job. I’m sorry but short of leaving out one of the biggest bats of all time, pencil in Rickey batting first and forget it.
I put this together based solely on handedness. I was kind of hoping someone would dig into the splits and fine tune these lineups.
First, I have a vivid image of Larry Walker batting from the right side, but it appears I was wrong. Let’s reverse the platoon.
As to Rickey and Raines, I noticed after I put together the first lineup that it only had one lefty (I missed Walker at the time), so I decided to build a “vs. righties” lineup loaded with lefties. Raines got the edge as a switch-hitter, but I suppose that has value off the bench and it’s foolish to not play Rickey.
Oh, and b-r gives Larkin 18 career Rfield. Ozzie? 239. In this lineup, I’ll stick with the Wizard.
Molitor at 2b is interesting- I didn’t remember that. Maybe preferable to Ripken there.
Larkin had double digit RFIELD three times at short, not that I really like that metric. Discounting Ozzy’s statistical 1989 oddity year (32 RFIELD) Ozzy’s next best year (21) is ten up on Larkin’s second best year (11). Their peak RBAT differences? Larkin broke 25 5x times with an oddity of 44. Ozzy’s top 5 RBAT’s are 10,10,4,2,and 2.
Yeah, that’s not that close.
Basically, you can expect about 20 more RBAT out of larkin than Ozzy and about 10 more RFIELD out of Ozzy than Larkin. The difference in their gloves is half the difference in their bats. Larkin did not match Ozzy’s good health but he noticeably exceeded Ozzy’s value on the diamond when they were on it.
I still think DWAR over-exagerates variations too. That means ozzy was not as good as DWAR says and it means that other players were not as bad as DWAR says. It cuts both ways for me. I mean look at Ozzy in 1989. His range factor is a hair under league average. His fielding percentage a fairly pedestrian .976 yet his RFIELD passes 30. OOOOOK. He was the best defensive player ever, don’t get me wrong but his value is somewhat exaggerated.
Sorry, you’re no different here than a WAR naysayer who refuses to attempt to learn about the metric and instead complains that complex stats are taking over baseball. People like that DO use stats, just inferior ones (usually Triple Crown numbers).
Your final paragraph is eerily similar to this: you decry and spit on Rfield because you don’t agree with results/refuse to attempt to understand how it’s computed, and offer up instead relatively crude (fielding %) and downright godawful (Range Factor) defensive stats in its place.
It makes perfect sense why fielding % doesn’t always jibe with Rfield. Infielders with great range often get to balls that lesser fielders can’t. So, out of position, it’s more likely they’ll make an inaccurate throw, increasing their chances of a throwing error.
As for Range Factor, oh dear. Range Factor is why I could never really buy into Win Shares.
Consider that RFactor doesn’t even include opportunities or errors. It’s simply a counting total of putouts and assists per 9. How worthwhile can a defensive stat be that measures putouts but doesn’t measure opportunities to make said putouts? RF is not capturing the balls that the infielder’s range are missing, so what is that really worth?
There are so many potentials for bias here also. Having large/small foul territory is going to affect fly ball rates caught by infielders. Having a pitching staff that allows more groundballs to the right side than left is going to make your SS and 3B look worse (and vice versa).
So, like the anti-WAR crowd, you are using defensive stats after all, just far less accurate ones.
I’ve seen some pretty good arguments that dWAR is likely underestimating the best defensive players, because the measures have a built in regression component that tries to normalize the results. But when someone is consistently well above average, this regression is throwing away some of the credit they should be getting (maybe on Tangotiger’s old site?).
Similar to FIP-based pitching WAR, for guys who consistently outperformed (as measured by ERA or RA) their FIP.
I think I saw this in an argument for why Jeter was even worse than was commonly believed, as compared to someone like Smith, who was likely even better. Of course, Jeter-based arguments are like evolution or global warming ones on the internet (always overheated and suspect), and I’m only going off a vague memory.
Bryan, perhaps you’re thinking of the time in the All-Star game when Larry Walker was facing Randy Johnson. After taking a pitch over his head (or was that Krukkie?), he flipped his batting helmet backwards and jumped to the RH batter’s box for laughs.
RHP first (more common)
1 Rickey Henderson CF
2 Wade Boggs 3B
3 Barry Bonds LF
4 George Brett 1B
5 Frank Thomas DH
6 Larry Walker RF
7 Robin Yount SS
8 Gary Carter C
9 Paul Molitor 2B
LHP
1 Rickey Henderson CF
2 Barry Bonds LF
3 Frank Thomas DH
4 Jeff Bagwell RF
5 Mike Piazza 1B
6 Mike Schmitt 3B
7 Barry Larkin SS
8 Gary Carter C
9 Paul Molitor 2B
Middle infield to me is pretty easy. Larkin crushed lefties better than any middle infielder on the list so he’ll start there. Molitor was effective against both and has by far the most experience of anybody at the keystone. He also makes an excellent #9 hitter in front of Henderson. All 5 shortstops (despite two of em being switches) preferred left handed pitching but the smallest platoon split belongs to Yount. Ozzy had a pretty hard time with right handed pitching and his offensive numbers against lefties are nothing like larkin’s.
Piazza needs to hit against lefties, his numbers are just too good. I pushed Bagwell into right field, he had the speed younger in his career to play the outfield I think (at least better than thomas and pizza who you just can’t leave on the bench against lefties).
Walker, Brett, Piazza, Larkin, Boggs, these guys have strong platoon splits
Henderson, Bonds, Thomas, Carter, Schmitt, it’s hard to leave these guys out no matter who’s pitching.
Schmitt vs Boggs against righties is another one I could be convinced to go either way on. I went with a barry focused lineup against righties. The hardest out right ahead of him in the 2 and the second biggest threat against RHP behind him in the 4 spot. Boggs also gives Ricky some more pitches to work with. Not that Schmitt wasn’t one of the all time kings at taking a walk, just that Boggs is ever so slightly better suited for this role.
So the question remains…what do High Heat Stat voters have against second baseman????
Comparing Grich to Trammell, Grich was definitely the better candidate and yet the voters preferred Trammell. In case you doubt me, they have the same overall WAR, the same peak, and yet Grich did it in over 1,000 fewer PAs. Grich was better than Trammell. Period.
I would have actually broken my voting moratorium to vote for Grich if it had mattered. But since it didn’t, there was no point in doing so.
It isn’t that the voters have a problem with 2nd basemen. The problem is that there is no consensus on who the best 2nd baseman is. The vote is crepeatedly split among Alomar, Biggio, Sandberg, Whitaker, and Grich. You feel strongly that Grich is the best, I think it’s Biggio, others think it’s Whitaker, etc. All were excellent and we’re splitting hairs over the differences, so they all miss out.
I just looked – 55 of the 61 voters voted for at least one 2B on this ballot. The voters definitely want a 2B – they just don’t know which one to put in.
Ed at #4: To get most of those 1,000 extra PAs for Trammell you have to include PAs when he was 19 and then at the tail end of his career. He was essentially a replacement level player in those periods. But if you look at Trammell’s career from 20 through 35, you get 71.2 b-ref WAR in 8,555 PAs compared to Grich’s career (age 21 through 37) at 71.0 b-ref WAR over 8,220 PAs, I don’t think there is any clear WAR advantage for Grich. Adam Darowski’s Hall of Stats ranking, which balances b-ref’s raw WAR totals with a measure of peak or core performance based on b-ref’s Wins Above Average, rates Trammell ever so slightly higher than Grich (though both rate as COG-worthy there). Also, Trammell’s post-season resume is more impressive.
True Birtelcom but personally I’m not in favor of willy-nilly throwing out years of a player’s career. Those replacement level season are part of Trammell’s record even if they’re “inconvenient”.
And an apples-to-apples comparison would look at ages 21-37 for both (or some other same age comparison). Just looking at age 21-37, Grich had slightly more WAR (71.0 vs 69.1) in slightly less playing time (8220 PAs vs. 8617). Not a big difference but enough in my opinion.
Also, Trammell has a WS ring and, as birtelcom noted, a glittering postseason record while Grich has the polar opposite: a .182 BA and a .566 OPS in 98 postseason PA.
With 7 pitchers among the 25 inductees we’re right in line with the proportion of pitcher to position player ratio of the Hall of Fame- not that that should matter this early in the process. It could be argued that we have an over-representation of shortstops but I would attribute that more to a freak concentration of talent at the position from about 1975 to 1995 just like there was in center field in the 1950’s and first base in the 1930’s rather than any voter bias. I think an easy case can be made that every one of the 5 players elected are easily among the 10 or 11 best at one of the deepest positions. And with apologies to Bert Campaneris, Jim Fergosi and Luis Aparicio our next serious candidate doesn’t come along until the 1931 election with Ernie Banks, who actually played more games in his career at 1st. Then you’ve got more than a decade until you’ve got a couple more borderline guys with Boudreau and Reese and another decade until you finally get to your next easy pick with Vaughan plus Appling, Cronin and maybe Sewell. So it could be argued that the next shortstop we elect might not happen until the 1912 ballot.
I don’t think it’s any secret that I’m a huge fan of Alan Trammell but I also sincerely believe that he was the best qualified candidate on this years ballot. Of the 11 remaining candidates on the ballot, in my mind I’m certain that 4 of them belong and another half a dozen that I’m either leaning towards or on the fence about. With Ryan, Bench, Fisk & Munson coming up on the next ballot I suspect we’ll be saying goodbye to at least a couple of them.
Enjoy your travels birtelcom.
We do have a lot of SS, but I really think of Yount primarily as CF. Granted there is about a 50/50 split there. As for the lack of 2B I have a hard time believing Joe Morgan won’t win the 1943 round or at least one of the years close to that.
Eventually we will get to Jackie Robinson and Rogers Hornsby, who I think both should get in. Robinson for sure as a lock. Also I imagine at least one of the Grich/Whitaker/Alomar will make it; it seems like Sandberg & Biggio will fall short.
I am certainly pleased to read Trammell has been inducted into the High Heat Circle of Greats. A deserving member.
I think Trammell is ‘overall right there’ with the shortstops who have been voted into the Baseball Hall of Fame. Tram was fundamentally perfect as a shortstop.
I hope I live long enough to see him, Lou Whitaker, Bobby Grich, and several other deserving players, who for whatever the voter’s reasons, have languished with low percentages, or failed within the 15 years, while similar contemporaries gained entrance into the hallowed halls of Cooperstown.
Bravo. About time.
Gotta go with Sweet Lou next round. Tram and Whit belong together.