There haven’t been too many bright spots in Chicago Cubs baseball over the past few seasons. Apart from Darwin Barney’s spectacular defense at 2nd, the release of Carlos Marmol and some savvy trades that ultimately led to 1st baseman Anthony Rizzo, the bleacher bums haven’t had too much to cheer about since 2008. Starlin Castro was one of those bright spots.
Over the past 3 seasons the Cubs’ shortstop has managed to hit .298/.336/.425 with averages of 9 homers, 9 triples, and 32 doubles per year. That’s excellent production at the plate out of the shortstop position and all those hits netted Castro a pair of All-Star appearances. Castro’s defense at the position has never been up to snuff, but he made positive strides with both his glove and his arm a year ago, and at 23 the hope was that he still had room to improve.
That hasn’t exactly been the case though. Through the first half of the 2013 season Starlin Castro has seen a noticeable drop-off in every possible offensive and defensive category. He’s hitting more that 50 points below his career average, while simultaneously walking less and striking out more than ever before. His speed, which had been good enough to net 25 steals a year ago, has declined too and his defense is so bad it’s almost sad watching him stumble through routine grounders before failing to make the play. It was just two years ago that a then 21-year-old Castro led the National League in hits while posting a very solid 3.2 wins above replacement. Now he’s competing for the title of “Worst Player in Baseball” along with the likes of Ike Davis, Jeff Francouer, and Jeff Keppinger, so what gives?
Well, a big part of Castro’s problem is that he derives a large majority of his value through his batting average. He’s not much of a power hitter and he’s seemingly allergic to walks which means that Castro has to get base hits to have any value at the plate. In his first 3 seasons, Castro was able to do so regularly, posting a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .334 over the trio of seasons including a .346 BABIP during his stellar 2011 campaign. That numbers fallen back to earth this year (.287) and the results haven’t been pretty.
But that’s just the easy explanation. Any hitter is going to see a dip in positive results when the defense starts converting those seeing-eye singles into outs. What’s more concerning, and what lies somewhere beneath the surface is Starlin Castro’s complete inability to hit a fastball. According to Fangraphs’ Pitch F/X tool, the Cubs’ shortstop has been 9.2 runs below average against the fastball this season. Only Michael Brantley and Andrelton Simmons have been worse against the heater and that means opposing pitchers can attack, attack, attack with their best pitch once Castro steps into the box. This is a major problem for any ball player, particularly one with so many holes in the rest of his game.
And we haven’t even gotten into Starlin’s chronic inability to draw a walk either. He’s never been much of a patient hitter at the plate but the shortstop is taking things to the extreme this year. He’s is walking just 3.8% of the time while also striking out in nearly 18% of his plate and both of those percentages rank in the bottom 10 in baseball for position players. This was supposed to be something Castro and the entire Cubs organization was working on in Spring Training but here we are in July and Castro’s now on pace to walk less and post a worse on-base percentage than he did during his rookie season. That has to frustrate the Chicago coaching staff as much as Castro’s stagnant defense does.
To be blunt, Starlin Castro should not be a shortstop at the Major League level. He’s a no-good, terrible, awful defender and his issues are only magnified by the fact that he plays at the toughest spot on the infield. He’s well on his way to making the most errors in the National League for a 3rd consecutive season and it’s not as if he has fantastic range or turns a smooth double play either. Just check out where some of the metrics rank Castro. UZR (ultimate zone rating) says Castro has been worth -10.7 runs, which is 5 runs worse than the next closest shortstop in the Majors. Defensive runs saved credits Castro with a -8 this year, a number that bests only Erick Aybar and Jed Lowrie among MLB shortstops. And finally fielding percentage has him ranked 2nd to last among shorstops as well with a .970 percentage.
Just pay special attention to Castro’s footwork the next time you turn on a Cubs game. It’s all over the map. On one play, Castro will make a textbook pickup with his glove and quickly set his feet before making a strong throw for a putout. Then, almost as if he wants to drive Cubs’ fans insane, the very next play Castro will scoop up a grounder, shuffle his feet, pound the ball in his glove, then shuffle his feet some more before finally releasing a throw that’s too late or too off target to get the runner. Cubs’ manager Dale Sveum discussed some of these issues recently with Vinnie Duber of CSN Chicago saying:
“There’s a lot of things in his defense that need to get better. Today he was just working on his backhand, trying to get more stabilized, have a base when you throw the ball and not be so off-balance and understand the different things you have to have in your toolbox. Your backhand, there’s all different kinds of backhands according to the runner: slow, fast, medium grounders, backhand it, come in and backhand it. So it’s just some things you’ve got to get cleaned up.
“It’s having things in your toolbox and understanding that these are why things happen, this is why it’s happening. And he’s got to understand that, as well, so these things don’t keep happening. The body-control plays are still an issue that’s got to get better. The backhand and the body control are probably the two things he has trouble with the most.”
These footwork and body control issues are Castro’s biggest problem. If he can work on getting set quickly and efficiently the rest of his body will fall in line, which will lead to more accurate throws and more outs. It’s also worth wondering if Castro will ever learn the more subtle nuances of the position. Defense is part instinct and part repetition. Just watch Castro’s peer Andrelton Simmons when he’s in the field. Simmons’ entire body is fluid. He wastes no motion in getting to the baseball or in transferring it to his throwing hand. I’d be willing to bet that Simmons has looked this smooth at short since he was a kid and it’s probably safe to say this kind of fluidity in the field comes naturally to him. Castro just doesn’t have that. He has to think about every single move he makes when fielding and all that extra thinking ends in errors occasionally. A move to another position was always in the cards for Castro. The Cubs were just hoping it wouldn’t be this apparent so soon into his 8 year/$60 million dollar deal.
Big thanks to Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference for the statistical help!
Thank you, thank you, thank you for pointing out miserably Castro plays shortstop. It’s as if no one in Chicago cares. Epstein may or may not save the Cubs, but I never understood his bet on Castro.
As a frequent Castro critic who rarely sees him play, I’m interested in these eyewitness observations of his defense. Through his first 3 years, I had thought his defense was seen as a plus by those with a stake in it. I was always puzzled that an obviously immature player with chronic attention problems could be a good shortstop. I guess I was wrong about his defensive reputation.
It must be frustrating for Cubs fans who watch him, but I think the front office is as much to blame as Castro himself. He’s not the first to come up at 20, with very little time in the high minors, and for a while he seemed to justify that. But they let him become the de facto face of the franchise, which put them in a box when his attention issues became too big to ignore. When they declined to seriously discipline him after the worst of those — a successful organization would have sent him to the minors, considering both those issues and his complete lack of progress from the point at which he arrived in the majors — I wrote off any chance of his developing from where he was.
The long-term contract was the last straw. It might have been a sound commitment for a typical player of his talent, but I thought it was the worst possible message to this particular player. I’m sure Starlin wants to get better, but I don’t think he grasps that the reason for that commitment was a projection of his development. And now that he’s slumping at the plate — which undisciplined hitters are prone to — there’s backlash setting in, and his confidence is probably shot. It seems unlikely that he’ll ever become a solid, good player, much less the star that was projected.
And I don’t get the point of his manager’s public comments about all the things Castro needs to improve. I’m sure it’s no worse than what any objective observer would note, but is going public with those things likely to do anything but further undermine his confidence? The club blew its chances to send a real message to Starlin. Talking about his flaws now just seems like sour grapes.
Cubs fans may remember this particular lowlight from a couple of years ago:
http://wapc.mlb.com/play/?content_id=14165041
It’s probably not fair to be judging his defence based on a clip from 2011, but David’s point about Castro’s footwork seems spot on here. I’m far from an expert, but there doesn’t seem to be anything smooth or consistent about any of those plays.
I don’t remember watching him play before tonight, but it didn’t take too long for me to see what you guys are talking about. He just let a routine grounder eat him up — he kinda caught it behind him instead of being out in front of it — then he didn’t get totally set and kinda lobbed his throw, not out of the reach of the first baseman, but slowly enough to allow the runner to reach safely.
I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen such an easy play executed so poorly at the Major League level.
Castro has Rickie Weeks disease. Comfort = complacency. You think it’s a coincidence that Weeks magically started hitting once Scooter Gennett was called up and started taking away playing time? You think it’s coincidence Castro had a couple good batting games when he finally was benched for a game?
Ideally Castro needs to be sent to the minors and made to earn his spot back. Barney and Valbuena can both play SS and the Cubs aren’t winning anything this year, so why not have one of the true young talented players get better? While that won’t happen, they at least need to bench him here and there and start working on moving him to 3B or 2B.
I’ve never understood their insistence that Castro will get better when they constantly reward him for subpar play.
He’s 23. The only reason they don’t send him down is because they’re already out of contention. Some level of failure at his age is not such a bad thing. The contract should be viewed in the context of today’s game. First round picks get signing bonuses in the millions even before they get near the show. Foreign players bypass the entire draft process and sign for long-term multi-million dollar deals that are mostly to pay them to play in the minors. Castro has plenty of talent to be worth the investment.
The most important part of any swing is the decision to start, or not. Castro won’t take a walk and I’m sorry to say will be out of baseball in 2 to 3 years.
You know that you’re too much of a free swinger when the High Priest of the Church of Juan Pierre calls you out for not taking walks! =D