Frank Robinson faced powerful competition from two fellow-newcomers to the ballot with strong historical reputations, Bob Gibson and Sandy Koufax. But Robinson received heavy support from voters and led pretty much throughout the balloting. He appeared on 58 ballots, the most since Rickey Henderson received 60 votes thirty-one rounds ago. Frank becomes the 43rd player inducted into the High Heat Stats Circle of Greats. More on Robinson and the voting after the jump.
Because Frank Robinson won four AL pennants, two World Championships, and a Triple Crown while playing for the Orioles, he is often most closely associated with that franchise. But he played almost twice as many games for the Reds as he did the O’s.
Most Wins Above Replacement (WAR, baseball-reference version) For the Reds Over a 10-Season Period:
1. Frank Robinson (1956-1965) 63.9
2. Johnny Bench (1968-1977) 60.0
3. Johnny Bench (1969-1978) 59.5
4. Johnny Bench (1970-1979) 59.0
5. Pete Rose (1965-1976) 58.2
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Which everyday player in MLB history was most valuable as a “two-league” player, with the most substantial contributions to both the AL and NL?
One way to measure that would be to take the WAR a player earned in each league and then apply the same harmonic mean formula that Bill James used years ago to develop a “power-speed number”, which measured the strongest combination of home run and stolen base totals. Applying this same method to find the players who most effectively generated everyday player WAR in both the AL and NL would mean taking a numerator equal to (2 * the player’s career WAR in the NL * the player’s career WAR in the AL) and dividing that by a denominator equal to (the player’s career WAR in the NL + the player’s career WAR in the AL). I’ll call that a player’s career WAR-LC (Wins above Replacement – Leagues Combined, pronounced “warlock”).
As an example of how this works, Kenny Lofton had about 54 WAR in the AL but only 14 WAR in the NL. That low NL number keeps Lofton’s WAR-LC down to 22.6. In contrast, Mike Cameron generated WAR numbers that were essentially equal in each league, a little over 23 in the AL and a little over 23 in the NL. Despite having a much lower total WAR than Lofton, Cameron’s balance in his individual league totals gives him a tiny bit higher WAR-LC number than Lofton, 23.3 to 22.6, because the harmonic mean approach places a value on achievement in a combination of elements, not just one or the other.
Here’s what I’ve come up with as the highest career “WAR-LC” numbers for everyday players in MLB history. I haven’t fully checked my work here (this is not the easiest list to produce), but I think I’ve got it:
1. Frank Robinson 50.8
2. George Davis 40.3
3. Reggie Smith 32.0
4. Dave Winfield 31.9
5. Carlos Beltran 31.4
6. Adrian Beltre 31.3
7. Bobby Wallace 30.1
8. Nap Lajoie 29.4
9. Vlad Guerrero 29.1
10. Tim Raines 28.5
Any kind of success with the Yankees at all and Carlos Beltran will move up this list quickly in 2014. Adrian Beltre, because he is playing in the league where he already has most of his WAR, will need more 2014 WAR than Beltran to move up. One WAR for Beltran in the AL in 2014 will move him up about 0.8 in WAR-LC, but the same one WAR in the AL will move Beltre up only about 0.2.
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— The ballot this round generated much attention: 72 votes, over 230 comments in total. The phrase “Sandy Koufax” is a good debate catalyst among sabermetrically-inclined fans these days, plus the ballots are getting very talent-rich — and it’s also really cold outside.
— As expected, the three most famous newcomers to the ballot received a large proportion of the support this round. Bob Gibson received a level of support that would have meant certain induction in most rounds. But not this one.
— An interesting interaction among the voters developed in the late balloting. Strategic thinkers seeking to protect the holdovers worked with the rule that allows all those tied for 9th place to preserve their level of ballot eligibility. That approach proved quite successful as eight, count ’em eight, holdovers who fell short of the 10% support level (normally needed to avoid a loss of an eligibility round) avoided the consequences of their low vote total by tying en masse for sixth place — 8 guys all receiving exactly 7 votes out of 72 ballots cast. Ryne Sandberg and Dick Allen staved off elimination from the ballot this way, and six others avoided losing a round from their collection of eligibility rounds.
The full spreadsheet showing this round’s vote tally is here: COG 1935 Vote Tally.
The vote summary for recent Circle of Greats voting rounds is here: COG Vote Summary 2 . An archive with fuller details of the 1968 through 1939 rounds is here: COG 1968-1939 Vote Summary . In both cases, raw vote totals for each past round appears on Sheet 1 and the percentage totals for each past round appears on Sheet 2.
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Here’s the Circle of Greats membership thus far, currently in order of date of birth, from earlier to later. Note that our two oldest inductees to date are Brooks and Frank Robinson, who shared not only a last name but four AL pennants for Baltimore. Their teammate and fellow COG inductee Jim Palmer won six AL pennants with the O’s — I haven’t checked but that must surely be a record for most AL pennants won by a player with a single team that is not the Yankees.
Frank Robinson
Brooks Robinson
Gaylord Perry
Phil Niekro
Carl Yastrzemski
Pete Rose
Ferguson Jenkins
Joe Morgan
Tom Seaver
Steve Carlton
Rod Carew
Jim Palmer
Reggie Jackson
Nolan Ryan
Johnny Bench
Carlton Fisk
Mike Schmidt
Bert Blyleven
George Brett
Gary Carter
Ozzie Smith
Robin Yount
Paul Molitor
Alan Trammell
Wade Boggs
Rickey Henderson
Tim Raines
Tony Gwynn
Cal Ripken
Roger Clemens
Randy Johnson
Barry Larkin
Barry Bonds
Tom Glavine
Greg Maddux
Curt Schilling
Larry Walker
Jeff Bagwell and Frank Thomas
Mike Piazza
Mike Mussina
Ken Griffey, Jr.
Mariano Rivera
COG Voters Push Pencils
I was going to comment about failing to reach the 10% threshold if you didn’t. This spike in interest (assuming it continues, which I believe it will) and the influx of great players adds another dimension to voting strategy.
With 3 or even 4 obvious standouts appearing on some ballots votes for the merely “pretty great” will likely remain widely divided and it seems that players with a little accrued eligibility have been the first to lose support. That eventually means that we’ll have more players “on the bubble” and that either the right combination of newcomers or a small shift in voting patterns or both could mean there’s an election in our future where 4 or 5 holdovers fall of the ballot.
This just keeps getting more interesting all the time.
Underrated factor in increased COG voting: “and it’s also really cold outside.”
New leaderboards!
Single-Round Percentages over 60% (players in parentheses did NOT win the round in question):
George Brett, 93.44
Randy Johnson, 91.67
Greg Maddux, 90.67
Mike Schmidt, 90.16
Tom Seaver, 87.30
Johnny Bench, 84.48
Cal Ripken, Jr., 82.67
Joe Morgan, 81.82
Frank Robinson, 80.56
Mike Piazza, 78.69
Carl Yastrzemski, 77.94
Rickey Henderson, 77.92
Rod Carew, 76.27
Jeff Bagwell, 72.97
Robin Yount, 72.88
(Jeff Bagwell, 72.13)
Gary Carter, 68.75
Ken Griffey, Jr., 68.66
Steve Carlton, 67.74
(Frank Thomas, 67.57)
(Frank Thomas, 67.21)
Wade Boggs, 66.67
(Bob Gibson, 66.67)
Frank Thomas, 65.82
Barry Bonds, 62.50
(Steve Carlton, 60.32)
Weirdly, the round that Frank Thomas actually won featured his THIRD-highest vote % (although they were all really close to one another).
Highest Single-Round Vote Totals (players in parentheses did NOT win the round in question):
Greg Maddux, 68
Randy Johnson, 66
Cal Ripken, Jr., 62
Rickey Henderson, 60
Frank Robinson, 58
George Brett, 57
Barry Bonds, 55
Mike Schmidt, 55
Tom Seaver, 55
Jeff Bagwell, 54
Carl Yastrzemski, 53
Frank Thomas, 52
(Frank Thomas, 50)
Johnny Bench, 49
Mike Piazza, 48
(Bob Gibson, 48)
Wade Boggs, 46
Ken Griffey, Jr., 46
Rod Carew, 45
Joe Morgan, 45
Mike Mussina, 44
(Jeff Bagwell, 44)
Roger Clemens, 43
Robin Yount, 43
Curt Schilling, 43
Steve Carlton, 42
(Frank Thomas, 41)
(Wade Boggs, 40)
(Curt Schilling, 40)
So, if we combine the two and say that getting a better total with more voters is more impressive, here’re the Votes*Percentage with a product of 30 or greater:
Greg Maddux, 61.56
Randy Johnson, 60.50
George Brett, 53.26
Cal Ripken, Jr., 51.26
Mike Schmidt, 59.59
Tom Seaver, 48.02
Rickey Henderson, 46.75
Frank Robinson, 46.72
Johnny Bench, 41.40
Carl Yastrzemski, 41.31
Jeff Bagwell, 39.40
Mike Piazza, 37.77
Joe Morgan, 36.82
Barry Bonds, 34.38
Rod Carew, 34.32
Frank Thomas, 34.23
(Frank Thomas, 33.79)
Bob Gibson, 32.00
(Jeff Bagwell, 31.74)
Ken Griffey, Jr., 31.58
Robin Yount, 31.34
Wade Boggs, 30.67
Weirdly, while researching this, I noticed that Phil Niekro lost support – both in terms of number of votes AND percentage – and won. That’s bizarre, but he’s not the only player for whom it’s happened so far that his “worst” round by both measures was the one in which he got elected. It happened to Mariano Rivera, too! Maybe some others, but those are the two I’ve found.
Not that surprising, honestly, given all the strategic voting happening.
If the year they won, they were a clear favorite mid way through the balloting, then lots of supporters may have chosen to strategically vote for candidates who needed some extra eligibility instead.
Well, I believe both those players won in their second years, right? Or rather, second ballots. I think there’s a distinct trend in players getting a big boost from being a new name on the ballot (Murray, McCovey and Marichal are 3 that come to mind on the current ballot that killed their first year and then dropped). So maybe it’s not as surprising.
True. The thing that makes it surprising, though, is that (obviously) their support wasn’t enough to won in year 1. Then year 2 came along. They obviously didn’t face a tough new class, because if they had, they wouldn’t’ve won, not with less support. But on the other hand, I’d the new classes they were facing were so weak, why would their support drop? (The obvious answer is “strategic voting.”) It’s just an interesting phenomenon, I think.
But is the “strategic voting” taking place in the first or second year?
I think it’s as much the former as the latter. I think some people like for new candidates to have a couple of years eligibility to give them a longer look.
It also seems pretty obvious that getting on the ballot early probably gave some players a huge advantage in stock-piling eligibility and that others have been aided by some talent-thin ballots or stretches in the voting.
I think it would be unfortunate if our current talent glut thins out our holdover list too much since we then enter a long stretch with little top tier talent
birtelcom, do you realize what you’ve done by inventing WARlock? You’ve created a veritable nerd’s paradise by combining baseball stats with J.R.R. Tolkien.
I see no reason whatsoever to leave my mother’s basement.
I do seem to remember Chris Berman introducing Bilbo “Slidin’ Into the Third Base” Baggins. Ooooh, precious!
I believe that was right before Peregrin “Look at that Extra Base he” Took.
Here’s some more WAR-LC scores.
And here’s WAR-LC for pitchers.
These are great, Doug, thanks! Cy Young is fourth in career pitching WAR in NL history, and seventh in career pitching WAR in AL history. He has more WAR in the NL than Mathewson and more WAR in the AL than Palmer.
Did I calculate Ruth’s Harmonic WAR correctly at less than a full game (0.4)? He compiled a 163.0 WAR in the AL, and 0.2 with the Braves in the NL.
Correct.
Similar story for Hank Aaron.
At, least they didn’t have negative WAR in their brief “other league” stints.
On May 25, 1935, Ruth went 4/4 with 3HR and 6 RBI. He retired after five more games (2 as a pinch hitter). That May 25th game probably put him in positive WAR territory.