This post is for voting and discussion in the 81st round of balloting for the Circle of Greats (COG). This round completes the addition (begun in last week’s round) to the ballot of those players born in 1907. Rules and lists are after the jump.
Players born in 1907 are being brought on to the COG eligible list over two rounds, split in half based on last names — the top half by alphabetical order in last week’s round and the bottom half this round. This round’s new group joins the holdovers from previous rounds to comprise the full set of players eligible to receive your votes this round.
This latest group of 1907-born players, in order to join the eligible list, must have, as usual, played at least 10 seasons in the major leagues or generated at least 20 Wins Above Replacement (“WAR”, as calculated by baseball-reference.com, and for this purpose meaning 20 total WAR for everyday players and 20 pitching WAR for pitchers).
Each submitted ballot, if it is to be counted, must include three and only three eligible players. The one player who appears on the most ballots cast in the round is inducted into the Circle of Greats. Players who fail to win induction but appear on half or more of the ballots that are cast win four added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Players who appear on 25% or more of the ballots cast, but less than 50%, earn two added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Any other player in the top 9 (including ties) in ballot appearances, or who appears on at least 10% of the ballots, wins one additional round of ballot eligibility.
All voting for this round closes at 11:59 PM EST Wednesday, January 7, while changes to previously cast ballots are allowed until 11:59 PM EST Monday, January 5.
If you’d like to follow the vote tally, and/or check to make sure I’ve recorded your vote correctly, you can see my ballot-counting spreadsheet for this round here: COG 1907 Part 2 Vote Tally. I’ll be updating the spreadsheet periodically with the latest votes. Initially, there is a row in the spreadsheet for every voter who has cast a ballot in any of the past rounds, but new voters are entirely welcome — new voters will be added to the spreadsheet as their ballots are submitted. Also initially, there is a column for each of the holdover candidates; additional player columns from the new born-in-1907 group will be added to the spreadsheet as votes are cast for them.
Choose your three players from the lists below of eligible players. The sixteen current holdovers are listed in order of the number of future rounds (including this one) through which they are assured eligibility, and alphabetically when the future eligibility number is the same. The 1907 birth-year guys are listed below in order of the number of seasons each played in the majors, and alphabetically among players with the same number of seasons played. In total there were 26 players born in 1907 who met the “10 seasons played or 20 WAR” minimum requirement. Thirteen of those are being added to the eligible list this round (alphabetically from Debs Garms to Pep Young ). The thirteen players higher up in the alphabet were added in last week’s round.
Holdovers:
Harmon Killebrew (eligibility guaranteed for 8 rounds)
Roberto Alomar (eligibility guaranteed for 4 rounds)
Eddie Murray (eligibility guaranteed for 3 rounds)
Luke Appling (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Kevin Brown (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Roy Campanella (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Bill Dickey (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Dennis Eckersley (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Rick Reuschel (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Luis Tiant (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Dizzy Dean (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Wes Ferrell (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
David Cone (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Dwight Evans (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Minnie Minoso (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Dave Winfield (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Everyday Players (born in 1907, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Rollie Hemsley
Debs Garms (named after the labor leader and socialist politician Eugene V. Debs)
Buck Jordan
Pep Young
Pitchers (born in 1907, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Bobo Newsom
Whit Wyatt
Fritz Ostermueller
Rip Sewell
Vern Kennedy
Al Smith
Jack Knott
Oral Hildebrand
Roy Parmelee
Our newest Redeemee, David Cone, had a career just a bit on the short side (2899 innings).
But by looking at the value of those innings, he stacks up very well with the other pitchers on the ballot.
Innings Pitched per Win Above Average
IpWaa:
73.5 … (1969) Dizzy Dean
80.3 … (3256) Kevin Brown
81.4 … (2899) David Cone
93.1 … (3548) Rick Reuschel
101.0 … (3486) Luis Tiant
107.4 … (3286) Dennis Eckersley
110.1 … (2621) Wes Ferrell
134.2 … (2067) Fritz Ostermueller
183.5 … (1431) Oral Hildebrand
188.1 … (3759) Bobo Newsom
262.8 … (1761) Whit Wyatt
316.3 … (2119) Rip Sewell
___________________________
Through the season closest to each Innings Pitched threshold…
IpWaa 1500:
70.4 … Dizzy Dean
72.8 … Rick Reuschel
88.8 … Dennis Eckersley
90.4 … Luis Tiant
98.1 … David Cone
136.6 … Fritz Ostermueller
168.7 … Kevin Brown
221.8 … Rip Sewell
242.6 … Bobo Newsom
_____________________________
IpWaa 2000:
67.1 … David Cone
71.9 … Rick Reuschel
76.8 … Luis Tiant
96.5 … Kevin Brown
108.6 … Dennis Eckersley
116.9 … Bobo Newsom
134.2 … Fritz Ostermueller
324.3 … Rip Sewell
______________________________
IpWaa 2500:
68.5 … David Cone
74.8 … Rick Reuschel
79.2 … Kevin Brown
84.4 … Luis Tiant
108.1 … Dennis Eckersley
158.6 … Bobo Newsom
_________________________________
IpWaa 3000:
76.1 … Kevin Brown
81.4 … David Cone (2899)
84.4 … Rick Reuschel
85.2 … Luis Tiant
96.1 … Dennis Eckersley
182.7 … Bobo Newsom
__________________________________
IpWaa 3500:
92.6 … Rick Reuschel
179.8 … Bobo Newsom
Dwight Evans acquits himself to the middle of the pack quite nicely, as well. Note how Appling somehow gets better with age.
Wins Above Average (WAA),
expressed as a rate stat,
by dividing it into Plate Appearances (PaWaa):
105.1 … (1345) Wes Ferrell (see also his pitching stats)
223.6 … (7065) Bill Dickey
247.1 … (10254)Luke Appling
287.8 … (7712) Minnie Minoso
306.7 … (4815) Roy Campanella
322.0 …(10400) Roberto Alomar
322.2 …(10569) Dwight Evans
350.0 … (9833) Harmon Killebrew
474.8 …(12817) Eddie Murray
521.4 …(12358) Dave! Winfield
__________________________
Adjusting for length of career…
Through the season crossing each PA threshold.
PaWaa7000:
223.6 … Bill Dickey
236.2 … Eddie Murray
237.4 … Minnie Minoso
254.4 … Harmon Killebrew
264.7 … Dwight Evans
287.0 … Roberto Alomar
288.6 … Dave Winfield
295.6 … Luke Appling
________________________
PaWaa8000:
245.5 … Luke Appling
250.5 … Eddie Murray
257.1 … Roberto Alomar
263.8 … Dwight Evans
270.8 … Harmon Killebrew
314.6 … Dave Winfield
___________________________
PaWaa 9000:
241.4 … Roberto Alomar
241.8 … Luke Appling
268.4 … Eddie Murray
273.7 … Dwight Evans
293.0 … Harmon Killebrew
342.4 … Dave Winfield
____________________________
PaWaa 10,000:
241.3 … Luke Appling
294.1 … Eddie Murray
303.9 … Roberto Alomar
308.4 … Dwight Evans
357.3 … Dave Winfield
____________________________
PaWaa 11,000:
345.3 … Eddie Murray
402.3 … Dave Winfield
____________________________
PaWaa 12,000:
385.7 … Eddie Murray
454.2 … Dave Winfield
Killebrew, Murray, Cone. Getting harder to choose with this deep field. Time for Killer or Murray to get in. Easily the two best hitters on the ballot.
I’m curious as to why you would conclude that Killebrew and Murray are “easily” the two best hitters on the ballot. Killebrew, certainly. But I’m not sure how Murray outranks Winfield as a hitter. I could see one arguing that they are comparable (about as comparable as it gets among all-time greats actually), but not that Murray is superior. For what it’s worth, WAR gives Winfield more Rbat than Murray and in fewer PA.
Appling, Eck, Ferrell
Appling, Murray, K. Brown
Luke Appling
Bill Dickey
Rick Reuschel
Dickey, Brown, Tiant
Dean, Appling, Dickey.
Appling, Evans, Tiant
David Cone
Bill Dickey
Rick Reuschel
Appling, Campanella, Ferrell
Alomar, Minoso, Ferrell
This round’s tidbits.
– Bobo Newsom is the only 200 win pitcher with a career losing record. Newsom and Satchel Paige twice opposed each other when both were over 45 years old, the only times two such pitchers have appeared in the same game. In the latter contest, on June 26, 1953, their combined age was just shy of 93 years, a record high (excluding Satch’s 1965 cameo when, at age 59, he was relieved by 36 year-old Don Mossi). What are the other two pairs of pitchers to appear in a game when their combined ages exceeded 92 years? Newsom is one of nine pitchers to pitch in four decades (years with same first three digits). Who is the only one of those nine to never pitch against any of the others?
– Rollie Hemsley’s 19 seasons and 7 franchises played for are both the top figures for players with career OPS+ of 75 or less in 1500+ games. Hemsley is the catcher who last caught the last living pitcher to strike out Babe Ruth. Who is this mystery hurler?
– Whit Wyatt led the majors in 1941 in SO/BB ratio, WHIP and FIP, and won a World Series game. Who is the only other non-HOF pitcher with all of those accomplishments in the same season?
– Fritz Ostermueller‘s 1946 season was his best since his rookie campaign twelve years earlier, as he became the 3rd Pirate pitcher with a 120 ERA+, 5 WAR season aged 35 or older. Who is the only Pirate since with such a season?
– Rip Sewell is one of 9 pitchers with 2000 IP and a SO/BB ratio of 0.85 or less. Sewell ranks in the top 10 among Pirate pitchers in IP, Wins and W-L% (min. 1000 IP). Who is the only pitcher since Sewell with 2000 IP for an NL franchise, but with none of those innings pitched before age 30?
– Al Smith’s 1.29 SO/BB ratio in 500+ IP through age 30 is the best mark among the 60 pitchers with a career SO/BB ratio of one or less in 1500+ IP. The Indians juxtaposed the soft tossing Smith and fireballer Bob Feller to good effect in 1940, starting them in consecutive games against the same opponent on 9 occasions and winning 13 of those 18 contests. Included was a 7-3 record against the Yankees that stymied New York in its quest for a 5th straight AL pennant. Earlier, Smith led the NL in shutouts in a 1936 season for the Giants with 30 starts and double-digit relief apperances. Who is the last Giant pitcher to do those three things in the same season?
– Vern Kennedy switched teams in mid-season four times, with a combined 20-56 W-L record in those campaigns. When he stayed put, Kennedy fared much better, with an 84-76 record, including his 21 win season in 1936, tied for the most wins in a season with a SO/BB ratio under 0.7. Which other three pitchers have won 20 games in such a season?
– Debs Garms’ .355 batting average led the NL in 1940, his first season with the Pirates. Who is the only player since Garms to post a higher average in winning a batting title in his first full season with a new team?
– Jack Knott shares with 10 others the dubious distinction of having two seasons of 20 games, 80 IP and a non-zero W-L% under 0.175. Which of those 11 pitchers had the best career ERA+?
– Pep Young’s three seasons of 75 RBI while playing 100 games at second base are tied with Bill Mazeroski for the most by a Pirate (current Buc second sacker Neil Walker needs one more such season to join the group). Who is the only Pirate since Young with a season of 75 RBI, 40 extra-base hits and OPS+ under 85?
– Oral Hildebrand shares with Juan Marichal the distinction of having the shortest scoreless World Series start (4.0 IP) that wasn’t ended by being pinch-hit for or by being relieved in mid-inning. Who is the other former Browns pitcher to win a world championship while ending his career with 140 ERA+ in 90+ IP for the Yankees?
– Roy Parmelee had two seasons leading his league in WP and HPB. Who is the only other pitcher to do the same?
– Buck Jordan is one of five first basemen to play their entire careers since 1920 and post a career ISO under .100 in 3000+ PAs. Two of those five played first base on losing World Series teams, but who was the last player with career ISO below .100 to be the regular first baseman on a World Series winner? What live ball era team won pennants in consecutive seasons with different first basemen with career ISO below .100, each playing in his final season?
Debs Garms question: Andres Galarraga?
That is correct.
Bobo Newsom (a) – Is it the 5/31/1972 game between the Dodgers and Giants one of them? That featured a nearly-50-year-old Hoyt Wilhelm and a 42-and-a-half-year-old Don McMahon. I don’t know the other yet. I figured it would be a Charlie Hough/Nolan Ryan game, but I guess I was wrong. I’ll try to think of others.
That is one of the games. Good sleuthing.
Bobo Newsom (b): Jack Quinn
Quinn is correct. His career overlapped (barely) that of Newsom, but the only season both were in the same league was 1932 when Newsom played but a single game, not against Quinn’s Dodgers.
The other seven 4-decade pitchers are Early Wynn, Jim Kaat, Nolan Ryan, Jerry Reuss, Mike Morgan, Jesse Orosco and Jamie Moyer.
Nick Altrock also pitched in 4 decades, although this was more of a stunt than anything. Still, he did it.
Not sure if Quinn and Altrock ever pitched in the same game. Didn’t happen since 1914, nor as opposing starters in 1909 and 1912, the only other seasons that both pitched in the same league. That leaves, at most, only 5 other possible games (or none, at least), so the chances are pretty remote.
Roy Parmelee – I’m not sure I’m right on this, because I’m not sure I’m understanding the syntax. But other than Parmelee, Phil Niekro led the league twice each in HBP and WP – just not in the same season twice. You’re probably looking for someone who twice led in both things in the same season.
Jim Kaat led the AL in both WP and HBP in 1961 and 1962.
Kaat is the only one.
Rip Sewell – Mike Cuellar pitched 2028.1 innings for the Orioles, and began pitching with them in his age 32 season. Impressive.
Good one, Dr. Doom. I missed Cuellar, and also Charlie Hough for Texas.
So, I’ve amended the question to the only NL pitcher since Sewell to do this.
Doug: I’m not sure if I understand the Hemsley question but is the answer Ed Wells.
Not Ed Wells.
Question is: Who was the last living pitcher who had struck out Babe Ruth?
Clue is that, in his last pitched game, Rollie Hemsley was his catcher.
I’ll try another one, Garland Braxton.
Not Braxton. He died in 1966, so unlikely he would be the last living pitcher who struck out the Babe.
This will be my last attempt. A guy named Rollie Stiles, whose career was enveloped by the years 1920-1935, died in 2007, the latest of any pitcher in that time period who had at least 1 SO against the Yankees. His last ML game pitched was on 10-1-1933 and Hemsley was the catcher. It can be deduced from the box score of 6-5-1931 that he struck out Babe Ruth. So he is my answer.
This is an update to my post #43. I ran the PI for Season Finders Player Pitching, Combined Seasons, set the years for 1914-1935 and sorted by Year of Death. Luck was on my side as Stiles’ name was on the top of the list. It also appears that Hemsley and Stiles formed the only Rollie battery in the ML. I hope Doug responds soon to see if I am correct with my answer.
Stiles is the correct answer.
Your method of deduction is bang on.
Doug: It took me awhile to figure it out, I didn’t realize it would be that simple. What made you even think of that question?
I was trying to think of something for Hemsley, thought about a all-Rollie battery, found it, and then did a quick read of the SABR bio on Stiles where it mentioned he was the last living pitcher to face (and strike out) Ruth.
While we’re on the subject, the longest lived pitcher to give up a HR to Ruth was Eldon Auker of the Tigers on 7-14-1934. Auker died in 2006. That was the game when Gehrig led off, singled and was replaced by a PR because of his lumbago.
Ostermueller question: a man currently on the CoG ballot – Rick Reuschel for the dreadful 1985 Buccos.
Reuschel is the one.
Pep Young question: Jose Guillen, 1998. I was having trouble with this until I asked myself “Who had some pop in their bat but never walked?” Looking at it from that angle helped immensely.
Guillen is the one.
Manny Sanguillen is another who fits your description, but 40 XBH translated into a lot more OPS+ in the 1970s than in Young’s or Guillen’s times. Manny will have to be content with having more seasons (6) of 150 hits and fewer than 25 walks than any other live ball era player.
Adding San to Guillen makes Sanguillen. The only other instance I can find is adding San to Ford making Sanford (Whitey Ford and Fred Sanford).
Can also add San to (Jimmy) Key to make (Ben) Sankey (Pirate shortstop).
Buck Jordan question:
(a) Buddy Hassett
(b) New York Yankees 1941-1942, Hassett and Johnny Sturm
Answer to (b) is correct.
But, there is a more recent answer for (a). Remember that the question implies that the answer for (a) is *not* one of the group of 5 of which Jordan belongs.
Was it Frank Torre who played for the 1957 Braves?
Frank is the one.
The answer to the Whit Wyatt question is actually mentioned by NSB in post 77 – Spud Chandler in 1943. Chandler’s 0.992 WHIP bested the NL leading 1.007 WHIP posted by – Whit Wyatt.
Chandler is correct.
Jack Knott question: Anthony Yong with a lifetime ERA+ of 100. In second place is Don Larsen at 99.
Make that Young.
Young is correct.
He sure suffered a lot of ridicule for his winless ways, so good to see him topping this group.
Remaining quiz answers.
– Bobo Newsom question: other pair of pitchers like Newsom/Paige to appear in same game with combined age over 92 years – Jack Quinn/Eppa Rixey 6-28-1933 (2nd game)
– Al Smith question: last Giant pitcher to lead NL in shutouts in season of 30+ starts and 10+ relief appearances – Sam Jones (1959)
– Vern Kennedy question: other pitchers to win 20 games with SO/BB ratio under 0.7 – Elmer Riddle (1943), Ted Lyons (1925), Sloppy Thurston (1924)
– Oral Hildebrand question: other former Browns pitcher to finish career with 140 ERA+ in 90+ IP for Yankees, incl. playing on WS winner – Ivy Andrews (1937-38)
Killebrew
Murray
Appling
Applying reuschel dickey
Harmon Killebrew, Dennis Eckersley, Dave Winfield
Dickey, Dean, Campanella.
Dickey, Killebrew, Campanella
Dizzy Dean, Harmon Killebrew; and only because you need three Bill Dickey
Luke Appling, Rick Reuschel, Kevin Brown
Minoso, Dw Evans Killebrew
I’m absolutely certain of two of the players I want to vote for – but the third? That’s much harder. How do I weigh odd positions played, pitchers-as-hitters, pre-integration levels of competition, time lost due to service in the armed forces, time lost due to segregation, reliever vs. starter WAR… how do I do all of that and come to a reasonable conclusion? I’m just going to go with the one I’ve voted for before, but honestly, I don’t feel good about it. Here’s my ballot:
Luke Appling
Kevin Brown
Luis Tiant
(But I also strongly considered Campy, Ferrell, and Dickey for that third spot. I’ll leave it up to others to figure out what to do with them!)
Alomar, Appling, Dickey
Campy, Minoso, Dwight Evans
Alomar – Dickey – Dean
Killebrew, Dickey, and Appling
Killer
Dizzy
Alomar
Killer
Dizzy Dean
Alomar
Appling to Alomar to Murray
Dickey, Appling, Killebrew
For the 1907 Part 2 election, I’m voting for:
-Roberto Alomar
-Eddie Murray
-Dave Winfield
Other top candidates I considered highly (and/or will consider in future rounds):
-Appling
-Eckersley
-Killebrew
-Brown
-Reuschel
-Tiant
-Dickey
-Cone
-Evans
Killebrew, Dickey, Cone
Killebrew, Eckersley, and Dean
Most Wins Above Average, excluding negative seasonal totals:
Appling 44.2
Brown 43.3
Reuschel 40.6
FerrellW 40.1
Cone 39.1
Tiant 37.5
Alomar 37.1
Evans 34.9
Eckersley 34.3
Murray 33.7
Killebrew 33.0
Dickey 31.9
Winfield 31.1
Minoso 30.6
Dean 27.9
Campanella 19.2
Brown, Appling, Eckersley
Luke Appling, Dwight Evans, Luis Tiant
Dickey, Cone, Ferrell
Murray
Alomar
K. Brown
1st vote update! I’ve been busy enjoying the holidays, and haven’t gotten around to this yet, but here I am!
This update takes us through brp’s vote @63, the 33rd ballot cast (assuming that Andy accidentally double-posted above, and that there aren’t two separate “Andy”s who posted at the exact same time with the same ballot). Here you go:
16 (48.48%) – Luke Appling
14 (42.42%) – Bill Dickey
11 (33.33%) – Harmon Killebrew
7 (21.21%) – Roberto Alomar
6 (18.18%) – Kevin Brown, Dizzy Dean, Eddie Murray
4 (12.12%) – Roy Campanella, David Vone, Dennis Eckersley, Dwight Evans, Wes Ferrell, Rick Reuschel, Luis Tiant
3 (9.09%) – Minnie Minoso
2 (6.06%) – Dave Winfield
Killebrew, Evans, Dean
Winfield, Ecksersley, Killebrew
Winfield, Dickey, Murray
Appling, Brown, Alomar
Campanella, Reuschel, Winfield
Dickey
Ferrell
Winfield
By some kind of coincidence, Luke Appling died on this date, January 3, 1991. Although he currently leads the voting, enthusiasm for him seems scant in the comments, and I wonder why. He’s the top WAR getter on the ballot, his career is solid in every way except power hitting, and he did some fairly remarkable things, especially considering the teams he played for. His first shot at an MVP award came in a year when Earl Averill and Bill Dickey were also having career years and Lou Gehrig was having one of many career years. Gehrig won, probably justly, but the voters did put Appling second in the tally. In 1943, batting cleanup, no less (He batted fifth in 1936), for an overachieving team, he finished second for MVP again, first among position players behind Spud Chandler. After WWII he was the one shining light on a ChiSox team otherwise in the dark.
Leaders
PA, age 39+
3694 … Rose
2595 … Rice
2589 … Luke Appling
2519 … Fisk
2486 … Rickey
2465 … Omar V
2443 … Honus
2355 … Winfield
2352 … Yaz
That is 677 games at catcher after age 39 for Fisk.
________________
WAR
19.2 … Luke Appling
18.6 … Bonds
15.4 … Fisk
14.7 … Honus
13.3 … Mays
10.6 … Rice
9.4 …. Stanley the Man
Bill Dickey, Dizzy Dean, David Cone
Sunday AM vote update, through Josh @78 (40 ballots cast):
17 (42.5%) – Luke Appling, Bill Dickey
13 (32.5%) – Harmon Killebrew
8 (20.0%) – Roberto Alomar, Dizzy Dean
7 (17.5%) – Kevin Brown, Eddie Murray
6 (15.0%) – Dave Winfield
5 (12.5%) – Roy Campanella, Davie Cone, Dennis Eckersley, Dwight Evans, Wes Ferrell, Rick Reuschel
4 (10.0%) – Luis Tiant
3 (7.5%) – Minnie Minoso
A tie at the top, and yet another scramble for votes among the down-ballot contestants, it looks like. Plus, Harmon making yet another run at an extra round of eligibility. Should be an interesting finish.
Dickey, Alomar, Kevin Brown
Appling (Old Aches and Pains) to restore the tie
Killebrew (Killer)
Minoso (Minnie)
Would have appreciated an Andre Dawson vote here but what the hey…
Dickey, Ferrell, Appling
Killer, Murray, Eck
I really doubt Killer’s ever getting in.
There are a lot of people who don’t think he belongs and won’t ever vote for him, but he seems to have a very strong contingent working hard for him. If the ballot ever gets weak enough, he could easily slip in (he’s come very close a couple times), and there doesn’t seem any danger of him not staying on the ballot through the end.
Assuming that one of either Appling or Dickey make it this round that will mean that other moves on.
In 1906 Joe Cronin has the strongest case by a considerable margin. The only other HOFer born that year was Lloyd Waner (24 career WAR). This assumes that Satchel Paige won’t be on the ballot because he doesn’t meet the 10 year/20 career WAR criteria. Tommy Bridges (52.4) career WAR is the only other candidate with more than 39 career WAR.
1905 brings Red Ruffing (70 career WAR combined pitching & batting) (I’m rounding all WAR to the nearest whole #). Hall of Famers include Leo Durocher (5), Rick Ferrell (30) & Freddie Lindstrom (28). Bob Johnson (57) and Wally Berger (42) are the only 2 other players with more than 30 WAR.
1904 will be another split ballot. Chuck Klein (43) is the only HOFer and Buddy Myer (47) is the only other player with more than 36 career WAR.
I would guess that the loser of the Dickey/Appling contest will continue to get support and that Cronin & probably Ruffing will as well. I suppose that someone like Johnson or Klein might get enough to see another ballot but I’d be amazed if they get more than the “new guy” love, if that.
Personally I think that both Appling & Dickey are worthy & I’m leaning towards Cronin. I don’t know what to make of Ruffing but I’ve come around on Ferrell. But with 5 elections and only those 4 among the new(er) candidates to get support that means that almost certainly at least 1- and possibly as many as 3 IMO- of our holdovers are going to get in.
At this point Killebrew is a close third in the current election and his support has been fairly consistent. Among the other holdovers only Brown, Alomar, Campanella & Murray have had vote totals in the high teens sometime or another during the past dozen elections.
I’d be amazed if the Killer doesn’t get in during the next 5 (counting the current one) elections.
And even if somehow he doesn’t he one of a handful in position to survive the upcoming 1903 election and once that finally gets sorted out will be facing a much less crowded field.
The 1970 birth year vote is coming up next.
One HUGE ballot, with 43 eligible.
But, only Jim Thome is likely to receive support.
Better get cracking on your tidbits Doug. 🙂
Yeah, forgot about that.
Thome is probably most similar player to the Killer that there is with the possible exception of Stretch. My guess is that Thome wins in the head-to-head but that still might not lead to election, at least on the next ballot. I’m guessing that will go to whichever of Dickey or Appling is still around.
I’m guessing that Jim Edmonds will get enough support to stay on the ballot as well.
Jim Edmonds should be considered a legitimate candidate as well with 60 WAR and 38 WAA+.
I don’t have him in, but he’s close to my line.
It’s interesting that he’ll probably get little or no support, while Killebrew is likely eventually in. By WAR/WAA+ Edmonds is better and it’s not all that close.
Agree about Edmonds. A VERY fine player, and a great guy. I admired him before his time there, but his tenure for my hometown Brewers made me a permanent fan and advocate. The COG? I’m not sure. But the HOF? Absolutely.
Whatever his merits, Edmonds is going to face as crowded a ballot as I can recall.
If nobody drops off the holdover list this round, the 1970 election will have 15 holdovers, plus 2 redemptionists, plus Thome and Edmonds – 19 players who might draw votes. It’ll take a lot of vote-spreading to keep everyone around.
An all ‘keep them on the ballot’ vote:
– Dwight Evans
– Luis Tiant
– Minnie Minoso
Alomar, Murray, Winfield
Reuschel, Cone, Dwight Evans
Very hard round. Dickey, Killer, and Tiant.
Love Luke Appling’s 1936 season. 6 HRs, 44 XBH, 128 RBI. That 1936 White Sox team was fascinating. They scored 920 runs with only 60HR and 396 XBH. By contrast, the 1936 Yankees scored 1065 runs on 182 HR’s, 580 EBH, and seven players in double figures. Gehrig and any of five other players had more together than the entire White Sox team. Just how did those White Sox score so many runs?
BBs baby.
Appling was especially good at getting them, as was his teammate Zeke Bonura who had an even higher walk rate. But the team a few other above average walk takers and no real laggards, with a 10.88% walk rate, compared to a 9.81% league average. That makes a huge difference that doesn’t show up as XBH or even H.
Also — 145 runs is a *huge* run differential between the yankees and the white sox, as big as the difference between the white sox and the second worst team in the league that year.
Another piece of interest. The tigers and Indians each scored 921 runs that year, essentially the same as the white sox. But their team OPS+ was 99 and 100, while the sox were only 88. Now OPS+ undervalues walks, but I went looking for some other sources of runs for them. Here’s a big one. similar SB totals, but only 29 CS vs. 49 and 53. Since CS turns a hit into an out, in a high offense era, that’s almost 20 runs right there.
Number of base runners in 1936, after subtracting out CS, DP hit into and players out while trying to take an extra base. The second number is HR.
Yankees…..2265….182
White Sox…2200…..60
Tigers……2165…..94
Indians…..2095….123
Also the Sox were probably better at bunching their hits.
Tuesday AM update, with vote changes closed. This takes us through Mike L @101, the 48th ballot cast:
20 (41.67%) – Bill Dickey
19 (39.58%) – Luke Appling
16 (33.33%) – Harmon Killebrew
10 (20.83%) – Roberto Alomar
9 (18.75%) – Eddie Murray
8 (16.67%) – Kevin Brown, Dizzy Dean
7 (14.58%) – Dwight Evans, Dave Winfield
6 (12.50%) – David Cone, Dennis Eckersley, Wes Ferrell, Rick Reuschel, Luis Tiant
5 (10.42%) – Roy Campanella, Minnie Minoso
Still that tough, two-man race at the top, with Killebrew a few strong votes away from putting himself in the conversation. Whichever two of those three doesn’t win will earn for himself an extra year of eligibility. Alomar could theoretically make a run at 25%, but he’d need to appear on about half of the remaining ballots to pull it off, so it ain’t gonna happen.The packs at 5 and 6 votes still need a little help, but need a little more to survive. Good luck finishing it out, late voters!
Vote:
Luke Appling
Wes Ferrell
Eddie Murray
Joe Torre, Hoyt Wilhelm, Sal Bando.
And here I was thinking I was too smart to post on the wrong thread…
ACTUAL VOTE: Appling, Dickey, Reuschel.
Tiant, Eckersley, Campanella
Alomar, Dickey, Campanella
Alomar, Dickey, Winfield
Murray, Alomar, Dickey
Here’s the vote according to my methodology – I compare players on 4 slightly different metrics, then aggregate the rankings of the players on the ballot. So if a player ranks first on all 4 metrics, they get a 4, if they rank 10th on all 4, they get a 40, etc. The four metrics are:
WAR – measurement of value above replacement players; has seemed to be the most widely discussed ‘advanced’ omnibus measurement of player value.
WAA+ – measurement of value above average players; my thought is that it measures how ‘really good’ a player was (excluding negative seasons also suits this purpose), and so a player who hung on slightly above replacement for many years might score highly in WAR but less highly in WAA+.
JAWS – measurement of combined peak and career value; my thought is that this is a different way of capturing some ‘middle ground’ between the above 2 metrics.
WAR*WAR/162G (or /250IP for pitchers) – credit to John Autin for coming up with this idea as a way to measure a player’s productivity per amount of time that they actually played, rather than over a season or career; my thought is that this is a way of measuring value for players who may not have had shorter careers or did not always play full seasons, etc.
Here are the rankings for everyone on the ballot plus any newcomers over 50 WAR:
Appling 4
Reuschel 12
Brown 12
Tiant 22
Alomar 24
Cone 27
Ferrell 29
Murray 29
Evans 33
Eckersley 37
Winfield 45
Killebrew 47
Dickey 47
Minoso 52
Dean 58
Campanella 64
Phew! Crowded ballot. I generally think everyone down to Eck at least deserves to be considered right down to the last pick, so I tend to vote for anyone above that if they’re in danger. Here, it’s the last day of voting so most folks are safe – the only ones below 7 votes are Cone and Minoso. I think Cone deserves some serious consideration, and Minoso has already gotten enough serious consideration that I don’t think he’s going to make the CoG, so I’ll leave him alone. At the top, I definitely do move Dickey higher up on the list based on the context of the position that he played. I see he’s in the lead of voting, and I’m happy to see him go in, I would vote for him next time if Appling comes back, but I’m in Appling’s corner for this round.
Appling
Cone
Alomar
Appears we have a tie between Dickey and Appling.
If memory serves, we had a runoff vote the last time that happened.
The spreadsheet is current a few votes behind. Updated totals, through the ballot @ 117 (55 votes total):
24 Dickey
22 Appling
16 Killebrew
14 Alomar
11 Murray
8 Brown, Dean, Winfield
7 Campanella, Cone, Eckersley, Evans, Ferrell, Reuschel, Tiant
5 Minoso
Dickey has a small lead, and with a late run Alomar has edged above 25% for the time being. Minoso needs 2 more votes to stay on the ballot, everyone else is alomst certainly safe.
Appling, Dickey, and Alomar to keep him over 25%
Killebrew, Minoso, Appling.
Vote: Dickey, Alomar, Murray
Trying to avoid a tie, Appling will get his due soon.
Appling, Minoso, Alomar