Following Carlos Beltran’s heroics Friday night–which continued his history of tremendous postseason results (save one forgettable at bat in the 2006 NLCS)–I witnessed the following discussion on Twitter between two high-profile writers regarding his Hall of Fame chances:
.@JeffPassan Beltran is better, as a Hall candidate, than every BBWAA HoF outfielder in the last 20 years save Rickey.
— Joe Sheehan (@joe_sheehan) October 12, 2013
@JeffPassan Beltran vs Winfield is close. Position and postseason, I give Beltran the edge.
— Joe Sheehan (@joe_sheehan) October 12, 2013
@joe_sheehan It is close. Ultimately, I think he makes it on account of being clean. Because beyond Junior, Vlad and Ichiro, not much else.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) October 12, 2013
Surfeit? Who uses that word? Perhaps the same guy who thinks of Dave Winfield as the second-best outfielder who’s played in the last 20 years.
EDIT: In comment #2 below, Hartvig points out that they’re talking about outfielders elected by the BBWAA, not all outfielders who’ve played in the last 20 years. Obviously, I completely spaced this detail.
But, I digress. Let’s take a look at that list of outfielders.
First things first, though. How are we defining last 20 years? Since Winfield was a major part of the discussion, and he retired after 1995, I’m going to assume we’re talking about any outfielders who’ve played at all in the last two decades.
Player | WAR/pos | From | To | G | PA | AB | R | H | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Barry Bonds | 162.6 | 1986 | 2007 | 2986 | 12606 | 9847 | 2227 | 2935 | 762 | 1996 | 2558 | 1539 | 514 | 141 | .298 | .444 | .607 | 1.051 |
Rickey Henderson | 110.6 | 1979 | 2003 | 3081 | 13346 | 10961 | 2295 | 3055 | 297 | 1115 | 2190 | 1694 | 1406 | 335 | .279 | .401 | .419 | .820 |
Ken Griffey | 83.6 | 1989 | 2010 | 2671 | 11304 | 9801 | 1662 | 2781 | 630 | 1836 | 1312 | 1779 | 184 | 69 | .284 | .370 | .538 | .907 |
Larry Walker | 72.4 | 1989 | 2005 | 1988 | 8030 | 6907 | 1355 | 2160 | 383 | 1311 | 913 | 1231 | 230 | 76 | .313 | .400 | .565 | .965 |
Manny Ramirez | 69.1 | 1993 | 2011 | 2302 | 9774 | 8244 | 1544 | 2574 | 555 | 1831 | 1329 | 1813 | 38 | 33 | .312 | .411 | .585 | .996 |
Tony Gwynn | 68.9 | 1982 | 2001 | 2440 | 10232 | 9288 | 1383 | 3141 | 135 | 1138 | 790 | 434 | 319 | 125 | .338 | .388 | .459 | .847 |
Tim Raines | 68.8 | 1979 | 2002 | 2502 | 10359 | 8872 | 1571 | 2605 | 170 | 980 | 1330 | 966 | 808 | 146 | .294 | .385 | .425 | .810 |
Kenny Lofton | 67.9 | 1991 | 2007 | 2103 | 9235 | 8120 | 1528 | 2428 | 130 | 781 | 945 | 1016 | 622 | 160 | .299 | .372 | .423 | .794 |
Carlos Beltran | 67.6 | 1998 | 2013 | 2064 | 8949 | 7868 | 1346 | 2228 | 358 | 1327 | 934 | 1427 | 308 | 48 | .283 | .359 | .496 | .854 |
Andre Dawson | 64.4 | 1976 | 1996 | 2627 | 10769 | 9927 | 1373 | 2774 | 438 | 1591 | 589 | 1509 | 314 | 109 | .279 | .323 | .482 | .806 |
Dave Winfield | 63.9 | 1973 | 1995 | 2973 | 12358 | 11003 | 1669 | 3110 | 465 | 1833 | 1216 | 1686 | 223 | 96 | .283 | .353 | .475 | .827 |
Andruw Jones | 62.6 | 1996 | 2012 | 2196 | 8664 | 7599 | 1204 | 1933 | 434 | 1289 | 891 | 1748 | 152 | 59 | .254 | .337 | .486 | .823 |
Bobby Abreu | 60.5 | 1996 | 2012 | 2347 | 9926 | 8347 | 1441 | 2437 | 287 | 1349 | 1456 | 1819 | 399 | 128 | .292 | .396 | .477 | .873 |
Gary Sheffield | 60.4 | 1988 | 2009 | 2576 | 10947 | 9217 | 1636 | 2689 | 509 | 1676 | 1475 | 1171 | 253 | 104 | .292 | .393 | .514 | .907 |
Jim Edmonds | 60.2 | 1993 | 2010 | 2011 | 7980 | 6858 | 1251 | 1949 | 393 | 1199 | 998 | 1729 | 67 | 50 | .284 | .376 | .527 | .903 |
Vladimir Guerrero | 59.7 | 1996 | 2011 | 2147 | 9059 | 8155 | 1328 | 2590 | 449 | 1496 | 737 | 985 | 181 | 94 | .318 | .379 | .553 | .931 |
Ichiro Suzuki | 58.5 | 2001 | 2013 | 2061 | 9278 | 8605 | 1261 | 2742 | 111 | 695 | 544 | 876 | 472 | 106 | .319 | .361 | .414 | .775 |
Sammy Sosa | 58.3 | 1989 | 2007 | 2354 | 9896 | 8813 | 1475 | 2408 | 609 | 1667 | 929 | 2306 | 234 | 107 | .273 | .344 | .534 | .878 |
Johnny Damon | 56.4 | 1995 | 2012 | 2490 | 10917 | 9736 | 1668 | 2769 | 235 | 1139 | 1003 | 1257 | 408 | 103 | .284 | .352 | .433 | .785 |
Lance Berkman | 52.0 | 1999 | 2013 | 1879 | 7814 | 6491 | 1146 | 1905 | 366 | 1234 | 1201 | 1300 | 86 | 48 | .293 | .406 | .537 | .943 |
Luis Gonzalez | 51.3 | 1990 | 2008 | 2591 | 10531 | 9157 | 1412 | 2591 | 354 | 1439 | 1155 | 1218 | 128 | 87 | .283 | .367 | .479 | .845 |
Kirby Puckett | 50.9 | 1984 | 1995 | 1783 | 7831 | 7244 | 1071 | 2304 | 207 | 1085 | 450 | 965 | 134 | 76 | .318 | .360 | .477 | .837 |
Brian Giles | 50.8 | 1995 | 2009 | 1847 | 7836 | 6527 | 1121 | 1897 | 287 | 1078 | 1183 | 835 | 109 | 45 | .291 | .400 | .502 | .902 |
Torii Hunter | 50.2 | 1997 | 2013 | 2091 | 8539 | 7787 | 1158 | 2170 | 314 | 1227 | 603 | 1547 | 189 | 91 | .279 | .335 | .466 | .801 |
The next assumption I’m going to make is this is one of those “…besides Barry Bonds (and other PED-implicated players)” discussions.
So, ignoring Bonds, as many delusional folks would like to do, it’s also obvious Sheehan overlooked Ken Griffey Jr. Clearly, Junior is easily the best outfielder who’s played the game in the last 20 years.*
After that, this debate is clearly up in the air, as Larry Walker, Manny Ramirez (if not for…well, you know), Tony Gwynn, Tim Raines, Kenny Lofton, Andre Dawson, Winfield and Beltran could all be considered #3 on the list.* Of course, Gwynn, Dawson and Winfield are Hall of Famers, but none of them are indisputably better than any of Walker, Raines, Lofton and Beltran.
*besides Barry Bonds
But, the point here is really to discuss Beltran’s Hall of Fame credentials. Comparing him to his peers is certainly relevant to that discussion, but he’s clearly not the second-best outfielder of the last 20 years, nor does he need to be to be Hall-worthy.
By advanced metrics, his 67.5 career WAR ranks behind only five Hall of Famers who played 50% or more of their career games in center field. [I’m pretty sure everyone reading this post can name all five in a matter of seconds.] If we don’t limit to Hall of Famers, Griffey and Lofton slide in ahead of him. Still, 8th best all-time at any position, let alone one as top-heavy as this one, is quite impressive.
Additionally, Beltran’s Hall Rating of 131 ranks 9th all-time among center fielders, with Billy Hamilton edging ahead of him, and Duke Snider rounding out the top 10 at 130.
What’s working against Beltran, of course, is his lack of any marquee counting numbers, and with only 2228 career hits, 358 home runs and 308 stolen bases, those who don’t realize only four players in history can top that combination are likely to look past him.
But, what I also think is happening with Beltran, and what I think is a fairly common phenomenon, is that he was written off as not quite Hall of Fame material too quickly, and people have a tough time moving beyond such preconceptions. His career looked to be tailing off in his early 30s when the Mets moved him to right field, then jettisoned him to San Francisco, and he’s been thought of as a role player since.
Role player or not, he’s still producing more than Raines and Lofton were at this age, and, of course, since he doesn’t turn 37 until early next year, his career is far from over. However, the additional 5 WAR Walker added after his age-36 season didn’t change the perception of his candidacy much, so short of some more postseason heroics, it’s hard to imagine Beltran will convert the unconverted in the next two or three years.
Whether you’re a fan of WAR or not, there’s really no disputing it’s been difficult for voters to wrap their heads around evaluating players who do a lot of things well but who don’t make an obvious contribution in one area. While it’s looking like there’s at least a pretty good chance Raines eventually gets in the Hall, the question that’s difficult to answer right now is will Beltran go the way of the one-and-done Lofton, will he linger on the ballot without much reason for optimism like Walker, or will he earn the relatively favorable treatment of Raines?
What do you think? What kind of Hall of Fame treatment is in store for Carlos Beltran?
Beltran regular season: 2228 H, 358 HR, 67.5 rWAR
DiMaggio regular season: 2214 H, 361 HR, 78.3 rWAR
Beltran postseason: 51 H, 16 HR, 1.169 OPS in 185 PA
DiMaggio postseason: 54 H, 8 HR, .760 OPS in 220 PA
Of course, DiMaggio had a career OPS+ of 155, to Beltran’s 122, and three years missed due to military service are not akin to ~250 games missed due to injury. But it’s not crazy to think Beltran might finish his career with 2700 hits, 425 homers, 75 WAR, and one of the great postseason resumes of all time.
Voters might not appreciate him right away, but he’ll get in eventually.
In the last three years, Beltran has 467 H and 78 HR. Let’s say that, over the next three years, he produces at 80% that level (which seems fair to me; obviously, he could outproduce that; and he very well could fall short – but it seems kinda fair to me).
That would be 62 HR and 373 H. It would put him at 420 HR and 2601 H. That’s probably not a horrible projection. So then the question becomes, how long does he play, how much playing time does he get, and will someone DH him for a long time? If teams are willing to stick with him another two years beyond that (his age 40 and 41 seasons), I could see him finishing with roughly 2800 hits, as well as 450 HR. If he gets to those milestones, sure his OPS+ will be more like 118-119 (that’s just a guess; feel free to correct me if I’m wrong, but it seems like a lot of greats lost about 3 (maybe 4) points of OPS+ in their final five years*), but combine the stellar milestones with the great defense as a young player: you’ve got yourself a serious contender.
*I did a random smattering of HOF and near-HOF guys: Robin Yount (-1), Darrell Evans (-0), Andre Dawson (-5), Scott Rolen (-2), Charlie Gehringer (-4), Yogi Berra (-3), Babe Ruth (-5).
A 118 or 119 OPS+ is right where a few HOF or borderline HOF guys congregate (career WAR for each in parentheses): Andre Dawson (64.4), Darrell Evans (58.5), Ken Griffey (Sr., 34.5), Stan Hack (52.5), Mark Grace (46.1), Sal Bando (61.6). Beltran ALREADY has more WAR than anyone in that group, and would only pad his lead in the career arc I described. I could easily see Andre Dawson being the obvious comp, and Beltran looks great by that comparison. On the other hand, so does Tim Raines, and it ain’t exactly like he’s got a plaque in Cooperstown yet…
For what it’s worth, after I did all this, I went to the Bill James Favorite Toy calculator at ESPN (yes, they still have that up and running: http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/billjames). It projected Beltran to finish with 2699 H (with an 11% chance to get to 3000, and a 25% chance at 2760) and 437 HR (6% chance at 500, 36% at 450, 25% at 464). Obviously, it’s an outdated tool that has its problems, but it’s meant to be fun, and it IS fun for this kind of exercise, I think.
It seems to me that when Sheehan says: “than every BBWAA HoF outfielder in the last 20 years save Rickey.” that he is comparing Beltran ONLY to the outfielders that the BBWAA have elected to the HOF in the past 20 years and not to other candidates not yet enshrined.
That would mean he was comparing him only to the following HOFers:
Robin Yount 1999- depending on if you consider him a shortstop or centerfielder
Dave Winfield 2001
Kirby Puckett 2001
Tony Gwynn 2007
Rickey Henderson 2009
Jim Rice 2009
Andre Dawson 2010
And I would say that as long as you put Yount at shortstop there’s at the very least a reasonable argument to be made that he’s correct in his assessment although you could possibly say the same for Gwynn, Dawson & Winfield as well.
That’s a good point, Hartvig, and something I completely misinterpreted. Obviously, adding Griffey to the discussion would be irrelevant then.
Still, I think for the main point of your article- which I take as does Beltran belong in the HOF & if so will he get in?- bringing in the those contemporaries still on the outside is also an absolute necessary.
Griffey will get in of course. I don’t know if anyone can say for sure about Bonds. Raines’ vote totals so far match up pretty well with Jim Rice so maybe. Larry Walker’s on the other hand look more like Don Mattingly’s first few years so probably not. And Lofton is already toast and if I had to guess I’d say that Edmonds won’t fair a whole lot better when his time comes. My guess is that how Manny does will be a reflection of how Bonds does in the future.
My thinking on Beltran is that his case will be a bit like that of Raines and will depend in large part on a number of people using both advanced and traditional statistics and comparisons to help establish his credentials as a valid HOF candidate before the BBWAA ever gets around to voting on him. And your article serves that purpose quite nicely.
My feeling is that you’re on the money with your assessments of both Edmonds’ and Beltran’s chances (i.e. Edmonds will go the way of Lofton and Beltran’s experience will be similar to Raines).
I think you’re parsing that right, Hartvig. I would say Gwynn has a better (traditional) case than Beltran. Probably Winfield, too. The 3000 hits thing is a pretty big deal. But neither of them was as good defensively as Beltran. He certainly has a case as the best “overall” case, if you include defense. I think Dawson is a pretty good comp, honestly. And I had no problem with his election (I actually don’t get why so many sabermetrically-minded folks did – it’s not like the Jim Rice election AT ALL).
Yount would definitely be counted as a SS for the purposes of this exercise, I think: 1479 G as SS, 1218 as OF; in his top 10 seasons (the top half of his 20-year career) by WAR, only 3 of them were in the OF (and #11 was as a SS, too). His top 4 seasons were as a SS, including arguably the best SS season that anyone alive today has ever seen (1982). Bottom 10 seasons: 4 as SS, 6 as OF. I just can’t see rating him as an OF, even though he was an All-Star and MVP in center.
“But neither of them was as good defensively as Beltran.”
That’s harsh on Gwynn, who in his peak was better defensively than Beltran (according to the metrics), but unfortunately suffered a fat, slow phase of his career that virtually wiped out all that positive Rfield.
Jack Murphy Stadium fielding stats for the period 1987-1992 (or so, I don’t remember the exact years) are a mess (also, someone PLEASE correct me if I’m wrong about this; it’s a recollection I have, and it has colored my thinking for a long time. I have a pretty good memory, so I’m just going to go ahead and assume it’s true, unless someone can let me know otherwise). I think that’s why you get Gwynn’s numbers looking like this:
+7
-3
-23
+7
+28
+19
At that phase in his career, I don’t think Gwynn was nearly as bad as -23. In fact, I’m all but certain that he was still a plus defender in 1989. I’m also fairly convinced (though not AS convinced) that Gwynn was not a +28 defender two years later, though. He was fatter, slower, and somehow became a BETTER outfielder that year?
Sean mentioned when WAR was first implemented at baseball-reference that there was something weird about Jack Murphy in those years corresponding to (more or less) Gwynn’s peak. I have never heard anything to the contrary. For what it’s worth, DRA (Defensive Regression Analysis, to be read about in Michael Humphrey’s book Wizardry, with stats found at The Baseball Gauge) has a very different story on Gwynn. DRA uses only publically available and published defensive stats, but does some pretty brilliant work with them to work things out so that the defensive ratings make sense. And for those same aforementioned six years, it has Gwynn at:
+10
+5
+2
+5
+4
+1
Composite, it’s actually a better defensive rating than TotalZone gives him. But it seems much more in line with what you’d think about Gwynn in that era, doesn’t it? And with that one ridiculous outlier year pulled out of there, I don’t think Gwynn’s peak years (which are, at best, +15) were nearly as good as Beltran’s. Beltran was a pretty legit +20 in 1999. And he was always great with the Mets.
Obviously, caveats about defensive stats, etc., etc. But if you remove those two crazy years from Gwynn, he’s a VERY low minus defender. Pull out Carlos Beltran’s top two years, and you still have the picture of a top defender. I don’t think it’s at all outrageous to think that maybe there’s an issue with the stats in those years. Normally, I wouldn’t buy that argument myself. But I only bring it up because I remember reading something about it when WAR was first rolled out at bbref. And it might have been Sean Smith who said it, rather than Sean Foreman. And it might have been in the comments to one of the posts. So I don’t remember the details, but I do recall reading that. And if that’s true, maybe Gwynn’s peak is artificially higher than it should be.
Still, though, even using the baseball-reference numbers, if you take Gwynn at his most positive (following that +19 in 1992) he was +76 through 11 seasons. Beltran, through 11 seasons, was +71. So basically the same. So at most, you can argue that ONE of those players was AS good as Beltran defensively, for half a career. I still don’t think that’s a ringing endorsement, considering that Beltran’s been a decent defender since then, and Gwynn absolutely crashed and burned after that point. I’ll take Beltran any day – especially since he’s been such a plus defender in CENTER, rather than right.
Actually, that position thing got me thinking. Gwynn’s first 11 years, Rfield + Rpos = +26.
Beltran’s first 11 years, Rfield + Rpos = +98.
It’s really, really not close. And that’s taking Gwynn at his best possible point. Even Gwynn’s best season was +28 Rfield, and -5 Rpos. Beltran’s best? +20 Rfield, and +3 Rpos. Both were worth 23 runs defensively at their best.
I stand firmly by my original statement: Beltran has been a much better defender than any of the other BBWAA players elected in the last 20 years.
And sorry for the wordy comments. I just love baseball!
RFIELD is limited in magnitude until more recent years. Bad defenders are under-penalized, good defenders are under-rewarded. You can’t compare today’s RFIELD numbers to ones from generations past. The best defenders in the league today generate historically absurd rfield numbers.
“At that phase in his career, I don’t think Gwynn was nearly as bad as -23.”
Dr. D, it seems here like you’re expecting TZ numbers to be a statement about a player’s true talent level every single year. They’re not; they’re measuring that year’s performance.
If you want TZ’s best guess as to true talent defensively, use a 5/4/3 weighting system for years N/N-1/N-2. If you do that, you’ll get numbers that don’t look too dissimilar to your DRA ones.
Look at Tony Gwynn’s Rbat for ’87-’92, and you’ll see just as big of a spread in his offensive numbers as you will his defensive ones:
+49
+18
+25
+4
+12
+11
If we can accept that players can have good, great, average, or crappy years with the stick, why is it so difficult to wrap our heads around the idea that a player can have an off-year in the field?
Random variation, different positioning, luck, a slump, etc. are all possible contributing factors to Gwynn’s lower TZ number that year.
Just because every single year TZ numbers don’t jibe with one’s personal assessment of a player’s true talent defensively doesn’t necessarily mean there’s anything wrong with the metric.
Actually, bstar, I understand defensive stats and their variation just fine. I seriously remember someone saying something about Jack Murphy fielding numbers in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Regardless, other defensive systems don’t rank Gwynn that poorly that year, and I don’t think his traditional defensive numbers, poor as those are, bear out that kind of assessment.
To be honest, I put all those caveats about Jack Murphy in my comments precisely BECAUSE I knew that someone would comment exactly ad you did. My concern is not about variations in TZ runs evaluations from year to year. OF COURSE there are 30 and 40 run swings, as there are on offense. My concern is specifically about Tony Gwynn’s defensive statistics because of something I read a few years ago.
The name that jumps out at me is Walker. His WAR per PA level is 30th best of all retired players all-time (min. 5000 PAs). Only retired outfielders with a better rate are all legends (Bonds, Williams, DiMaggio, Speaker, Mantle, Cobb, Mays, Clemente, Ott, Aaron, Ruth, Robinson, Musial and Shoeless Joe).
Walker certainly benefits from reduced PAs outside of his career peak, owing to a late start and and an early finish. But, getting a late career start is normally seen as a handicap to career achievement, so seems rather unfair to “penalize” him for spending his youth playing ice hockey.
Walker, incidentally, is tied with Ruth and trails only Speaker and Cobb, with 4 qualifying seasons aged 30+ and batting .350 or better.
Doug, really? BA accolades from the Coors Field pre-humador period? Also, walker was a couple games away from failing to qualify that BA in half of those seasons (513 and 524 AB’s) due to injury.
And breaking 500 AB’s before your age 24 season is a late start? Boggs didn’t have any AB’s before his 24 season. I would guess the average full time start for a HOF’er is around 22 instead of walker’s age 23 start.
Walker is clouded by Coors, Steroids, Injuries, and not being a particularly good old player. Despite playing in the 162 game era and with plenty of coors/roidsy whatever helping him along he passed 330 total bases only once (1997’s absurd 409)
13/mosc,
Al Kaline never had 330 TB in a season; Roberto Clemente, Reggie Jackson, and Dave Winfield only surpassed that once. OTOH, Chuck Klein did it five times (over 400 TB three times), in a short career (though aided by the Baker Bowl).
I’m not sure what the significance is of this, it sounds like selective endpoints. There are a number of good arguments against Walker’s HOF case, the 330 TB isn’t one of them. I have also NEVER heard the slightest suggestion of steroids for Walker.
The BA was just a fun stat. Not meant to be taken too seriously.
Not a particularly good older player? Compared to whom exactly? There are 67 HOFers with 2000 PAs aged 34-38. Their median OPS+ is 122 (Yaz). Walker was 144, exceeded by only 14 of those 67. Their median WAR was 14.8 (Rickey). Walker was 23.4, exceeded by only 12 of those 67.
A late starter? Um, yes he was. Of 137 HoFers, excluding pitchers, Walker’s 534 PA through age 23 rank 22nd lowest. The median is 1371, more than a season’s worth more PAs than Walker, and 42 of the 137 (over 30%) have 1850+ PAs or 2+ full (650+ PA) seasons worth more than Walker. But, it’s more the just those extra seasons at the beginning. The younger a player starts, the higher and longer will be his peak. I remember Bill James demonstrating that, when studying comparable groups of 21 and 22 year-old rookies, the 21 year-olds produced 50% more career value than the 22 year-olds; that’s the significant point and the handicap that all later starters are encumbered with.
Walker and PEDs? Not something I’m aware of. Anybody else hear about this?
Injured a lot? Yes. But that just serves to amplify my point. His raw WAR total, despite reduced playing time, is already in Hall territory, and his WAR per PA rate is among the very best all-time. Despite the toll that injuries took on Walker.
But, don’t just take my word for it. Walker was an early selection to the CoG here at HHS, and was an easy pick for Adam Darowski’s Hall of Stats. You might be interested to read Adam’s piece on Walker, posted here in March.
Please explain how it is delusional to overlook bonds who is the biggest cheat and stain on the game of baseball, one that the league is still trying to recover from.
I’m sorry, what makes him a “bigger cheat and stain” than David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez(who’s been busted TWICE), Ken Caminiti, Roger Clemens, A-Rod, Ryan Braun(who I believe deserves that dubious honor by being a complete ass)Sosa and McGwire and so many more? Because he broke records and they didn’t? Because he wasn’t a nice person? I still for the life of me can’t stand when Bonds gets the brunt of all this, like he was (1) All alone in this (2) Actually got caught using during his career…which he didn’t and most of the above did (3) He was blackballed out of the league while still producing at a high level. Yes, It’s all his fault. (sarcasm)
@Jeff B: I said *ignoring* Bonds (i.e. pretending he never existed) is delusional.
He most definitely existed and for the record…
Cleanly bettered Griffey Jr. in the 90’s from a overall ball player standpoint. Numbers most certainly don’t lie there.
Re: Beltran’s supposed lack of marquee counting numbers — Comparing him to career center fielders (where he’s played 80% of his career games), since 1893, Beltran ranks:
— 8th in HRs
— 8th in RBI
— 15th in Runs (less than 50 away from the 10th spot)
— 10th in Total Bases
— 6th in Extra-Base Hits
Among the HOF-eligibles:
— On the HRs list, all 4 above him are in the Hall.
— On the RBI list, all 6 above him are in the Hall.
— On the XBH list, all 4 above him are in the Hall.
A great many things work against the public perception of Beltran. His skills are broad-based, on both sides of the ball. He’s not identified with any one team, and the team of his peak (Mets, 2006-08) was bathed in disappointment. He hasn’t been to the World Series. He didn’t hit .300 in some of his best years. He broke in while Junior, Andruw and Edmonds were all in their primes. His one “iconic” moment is a negative.
But he does have plenty of counting stats.
— Most seasons of 100 RBI and 100 Runs by a CF: (1) Mays, 9; (2) Beltran and DiMaggio, 7.
— Most 20-HR, 20-SB seasons by a CF: (1) Beltran, 7. (2) Mays and Eric Davis, 6.
http://joeposnanski.com/joeblogs/beltran/
birtelcom, thanks for the JoePos link on Beltran. He has a good perspective. And yet, as if to confirm that no one can be quite objective about Carlos, Posnanski pulls a bit of shameful legerdemain in deflating Beltran’s postseason stats. Follow this:
OK, Joe. So, if you subtract that one legendary postseason, which comprises almost 30% of his career PAs, and all you have left is .290/.395/.598? Gee, it’s a wonder he can crack the lineup.
Then Joe adds this:
Wow — out of 9 games, Beltran only won one of them almost single-handedly, while in game 3 against Pittsburgh, he had not only the “big home run” Joe notes, but also a 2-out, 2-run, tying hit in the 5th; his .516 WPA for that game is the best in this year’s postseason. His team gave up the lead and lost, but that was a MONSTER game, which means two out of nine. Get two other players performing that well, you’re on the way to a championship.
It seems Carlos just can’t win. When he racks up big raw numbers, people focus on a “clutch” failure. When he kills it in the clutch, they point to his batting average for 9 games.
Posnanski brushes aside Beltran’s “being constantly compared with Ruth and Gehrig” in postseason play, as if it’s not even worth considering that anyone could play as well as them on the biggest stage. Joe should review, say, Ruth’s 1921-22 World Series performance, both lost by the Yanks.
I’m sure he didn’t mean to do a hatchet job on Beltran, but that’s what those passages amount to.
Postseason is a team accomplishment, the HOF is individual, therefore one should not consider them as HOF criteria.
IMO, of course.
Assume this.
Beltran will likely sign another contract or two before he’s done and could easily play another four, five years primarily as a DH, similar to Winfield (and Molitor).
He could attain another 10-12 WAR, which would put him close to 80 career and fourth on this list.
That doesn’t make him a HOFer as I personally wouldn’t vote for either Walker or Raines, but he’d be much further from the fence than he is now.
I agree to the extent that players shouldn’t get HOF credit as “winners” simply because they played on championship teams. But, players who performed well in the postseason…that has to count for something. It’s complicated, I know, because some players have an unfair advantage based only on opportunity. However, I still feel like it has to be a consideration.
Playoffs should definitely count for a players credentials. They are a big deal. Guys like Smoltz, Pettite, Beltran, and Ortiz who have big post season credentials should definitely benefit from them, espeically now when there’s so many games. Pettite pitches 1.5 seasons worth of innings in the post season!
___________
Jake Westbrook
Edward Mujica
Randy Choate
Carlos Beltran
Matt Holliday
Only Cardinals of any significant playing time that are NOT a product of their system.
Their front office has got to feel pretty smart right about now.
Just curious if anyone ever noticed Willie Mays’ horrid post-season resume. James, in his BJHBA, talks about peak seasons and post-season performance and then goes and calls Mays the superior of Mantle. Go figure…..
I’ll play devil’s advocate. Mays only appeared in only two postseason series from the ages of 21-39, the limited number of games making it difficult to build an impressive resume. Outside of those years we can hardly be expecting him to perform at his peak.
One of those series was the 1954 World Series, which Mays’ Giants won in four straight.
– In Game 1, Mays started the winning rally in the 10th with a walk and a steal.
– In Game 2, Mays scored the tying run after a walk.
– In Game 3 he went 3 for 5 with 2 RBI and a Run.
– In Game 4, Mays had the second biggest WPA event of the game with an RBI double. He later walked and scored.
– There was also the small matter of “the Catch” in Game 1.
Mays performance in the 1962 World Series was less stellar, but the Giants only got there by winning a three game playoff against the Dodgers. Mays went 5 for 11 with 2 home runs and 3 walks in those games.
In Game 7 of that ’62 Series, with the Giants losing 1-0 in the bottom of the ninth and two out, Mays hit a double to right with Matty Alou on first. Alou only made it third, and McCovey lined out to end the series. A bad carom or a fumble and Mays ties the game. A few more inches on McCovey’s lineout and Mays scores the winning run for San Francisco’s first ever championship.
At the age of 40 Mays was also far from terrible in the 1971 NLCS, putting up an OPS of .989 in 4 games.
Willie only made playoff appearances in two other seasons, his age 20 and 42 years, hitting only singles in those games.
So whilst it’s clear Mays’ postseason performance was far poorer than his regular season prowess, I think you can make a pretty decent argument that it wasn’t as awful as all that.
Let’s talk about “Carlos Beltran, World Series participant.” 🙂
I second that emoticon.
Is there a website that explains how to use bbref’s play index? I’m a subscriber, but don’t really know how to use it to its fullest capacity. I’m especially interested in learning how to do a nested search. That is, do one search that gives me a list, then find out something further about the people on that list.
AlbaNate — Here are a couple of helpful links for doing a filtered search:
Filtered search description:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/10708
Share Tool description:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/2403
Share Tool tutorial:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/3223
The Share Tool is used to save the results of a search (or any page where you find a “Share” link, such as team pages). After you click on “Share,” then click on “link url” and give it a name. To do a filtered search on the saved results, go to the Play Index front page (but don’t use your browser’s “Back” button) and choose Batting Season Finder or Pitching Season Finder; enter your search criteria, then at the bottom of the form, find the words “Only find players in the saved report…” and select your report from the drop-down.
FYI, a filtered search can only be done as a Batting Season Finder or Pitching Season Finder. You can save any kind of search results, but a secondary search covering those saved results can only be done as a Season Finder, not a Game, Streak or Even finder.
Also, the filtered Season Finder finds all seasons for the players in the saved report, which seasons also meet the search criteria you enter. You can’t automatically target the specific seasons that are collected in the saved report. Say you do a Game Finder for 4-HR games, and save that report. A filtered search on that saved report looks at ALL seasons for those players, not just the seasons covered by the 4-HR games.
If you have any other questions, you can reply to the email I’ll send you.
Would have been nice to also do “Torii Hunter, World Series participant” at the same time. This was only Beltran’s fourth trip to the post-season — Torii’s been there seven times now, a total of forty-five post-season games — without getting to that last level.