Greetings, once again, friends!
So we’re not dragging out our awards voting into forever, we’re going to handle both Cy Young awards with a single post. I will present the candidate, some statistics, and a brief paragraph’s synopsis of considerations. I don’t want to tarry too long here, because there’s a lot to consider! Just remember to check the bottom of the post for results! Balloting will close Friday, December 17 at 11:59:59, your local time. That is, I’ll tabulate officially whatever is there Saturday morning when I wake up. 🙂 Post after the jump!
In the American League, the featured candidates are:
Gerrit Cole, NYY: 16-8, 3.23 ERA, 2.92 FIP, 181.1 IP, 243 SO, 1.059 WHIP, 133 ERA+, 5.93 SO/W
Cole tried to be worthy of his ~$1m/start contract. Cole’s candidacy is largely based on the idea that, the more control over events the pitcher has, the more heavily those should be weighted. You can’t decide how far back the fences are, which affect HR rate; you don’t get to decide what your fielders do with a batted ball. If you look at just walks and strikeouts, Cole might be your guy. He also might be your guy if you’re extremely old-school, and are only concerned with pitcher wins. In many ways, this makes Cole the perfect candidate: both by the bluntest instrument (wins) and by the finest ones (there’s some interesting Statcast-related stuff for Cole), he’ll likely rank as the AL’s best pitcher. Any method in between might not get you there. So what do you trust?
Nathan Eovaldi, BOS: 11-9, 3.75 ERA, 2.79 FIP, 182.1 IP, 195 SO, 1.190 WHIP, 126 ERA+, 5.57 SO/W
Eovaldi posted an even better FIP than Cole, in nearly identical innings. Eovaldi had an ERA a full run worse than his FIP, which might be attributable largely to pitching at Fenway. He was second among these pitchers in Innings (essentially even with Cole).
Lucas Giolito, CHW: 11-9, 3.53 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 178.2 IP, 201 SO, 1.103 WHIP, 123 ERA+, 3.87 SO/W
Giolito is an interesting candidate: he doesn’t have the goods in any one department, but he shows up well across the board, when looking for a down-ballot candidate. The White Sox got those wins from somewhere, and Giolito was one of the primary reasons. Only six AL pitchers posted 200+ strikeouts in 2021, Giolito among them.
Lance Lynn, CHW: 11-6, 2.69 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 157.0 IP, 176 SO, 1.070 WHIP, 161 ERA+, 3.91 SO/W
Lynn was, per inning, one of the best starters in the AL this year. His 161 ERA+ would’ve led the league, had he qualified. This is an interesting debate: how much do you weight playing time relative to effectiveness? This is a much larger issue in the NL, but it factors in here, too. Choose wisely!
Robbie Ray, TOR: 13-7, 2.84 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 193.1 IP, 248 SO, 1.045 WHIP, 154 ERA+, 4.77 SO/W
Ray led the AL in… pretty much everything. Had Toronto performed a bit better as a team, you can imagine a world in which he led in wins, too, and snagged himself a Triple Crown. Ray was very effective all season long and kept Toronto in the hunt until the season’s last day (though that final day may harm his candidacy in the eyes of some).
Plenty of others, like Dylan Cease, Jose Berrios, Sean Manaea, and Lance McCullers have good claims for down-ballot support. Maybe you believe Shohei Ohtani deserves a vote for Cy Young, since the reason he didn’t pitch more was his otherworldly hitting. (For the record, I was not overwhelmed with the relief pitching among the AL pitchers… but if someone has a good candidate, please enlighten us and make the case below!)
Over in the National League, the highlighted candidates are:
Walker Buehler, LAD: 16-4, 2.47 ERA, 3.16 FIP, 207.2 IP, 212 SO, 0.968 WHIP, 165 ERA+, 4.08 SO/W
Just being totally honest, I have a really hard time seeing a wrong choice among some of the top contenders here. It was a weird year: lots of excellent years, but no one quite putting it all together. A player like Scherzer, Buehler, or Wheeler would’ve coasted to the AL Cy Young; it’s a shame only one of them can win it here. Anyway, Buehler has been in these Cy Young conversations before, but suffers a little from always appearing the second-best pitcher on his own team, and possibly a product of Dodger Stadium. The question is: do we agree?
Corbin Burnes, MIL: 11-5, 2.43 ERA, 1.63 FIP, 167 IP, 234 SO, 0.940 WHIP, 176 ERA+, 6.88 SO/W
Here’s the fact: if the innings pitched weren’t at issue in Burnes’ case, this would be an extremely boring vote. This season was absolutely epic from a performance standpoint. The question is, how do you weight that level of performance against that dearth of innings, relative to your competitors? He finished nearly 50 innings behind Wheeler, yet was more effective. How you weight that comes down to personal preference. He did manage to squeeze out a qualifying innings total… but was that enough to give him the same win in this community that he got from the BBWAA?
Max Scherzer, WSN/LAD: 15-4, 2.46 ERA, 2.97 FIP, 179.1 IP, 236 SO, 0.864 WHIP, 166 ERA+, 6.56 SO/W
First of all, that WHIP! Second of all, a fun fact I just learned is this: Max Scherzer has never led his league in ERA+! Isn’t that fascinating? He’s been at or near the top of the “best pitcher in baseball” conversation so long at this point, I just assumed he’d have led the league at least once. Ultimately with Scherzer, the question you have to ask is this: does his Dodgers performance in the second half of the year weight more heavily than his Nats performance in the first half? If so, he’s probably a no-brainer winner. (1.98 ERA, 1.96 FIP, 11.13 SO/W for the Dodgers.) But then, that was only about 40% of his innings. So what does that do for you>
Julio Urias, LAD: 20-3, 2.96 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 185.2 IP, 195 SO, 1.018 WHIP, 138 ERA+, 5.13 SO/W
Urias’ candidacy is all about those wins, baby! The only 20-game winner in baseball this year, he also had that fabulous .870 winning percentage. Also, while his SO/W doesn’t look too spectacular in this group, he was nearly as good as anyone in the AL. It’s not his fault his competition is so stiff!
Zack Wheeler, CIN: 14-10, 2.78 ERA, 2.59 FIP, 213.1 IP, 247 SO, 1.008 WHIP, 150 ERA+, 5.37 SO/W
Wheeler’s numbers, in isolation, are outstanding. Not only was he the league’s workhorse in innings, he faced the most batters, threw the most shutouts, and the most complete games. There’s a reason both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference have him as the league’s WAR leader, and that’s not something you can count on happening every year.
There are too many Dodgers here, but there could’ve been just as many Brewers, as Brandon Woodruff and Josh Hader have compelling candidacies; Wade Miley of the Reds and Aaron Nola and even Ranger Suarez of the Phillies also have down-ballot cases. But the idea that you’re going to find candidates outside of those four teams… well, you must’ve liked Max Fried or Kevin Gausman‘s year. Or maybe you just have an Adam Wainwright-shaped soft spot in your heart.
Happy voting! Here are the rules, for a refresher:
Vote by making a comment below and numbering your choices with 1 being the MOST preferred candidate, and 5 being your LEAST preferred candidate of your five choices. Your ballots will be EXACTLY five places, just as the BBWAA does. You must vote for 5 players. Scoring will be 7-4-3-2-1, just as the BBWAA does. You are not required to vote in all elections; only vote in the ones you would like to vote in. You may make vote changes, if the discussion so moves you. If you change your vote, please do so in a new comment, not as a reply to your original comment (it’s a lot easier to find new comments than replies to old ones). Please don’t vote strategically; we’re trying to get the best result, not to manipulate the vote totals based on what others have done. Voting will remain open about one week. When players are tied, tiebreakers go as follows: first tiebreaker is number of ballots on which players were named; second tiebreaker is highest placement on a ballot; third tiebreaker is the first player to be named (as this usually only happens when a bunch of players are tied for last). Results will be posted in a comment at the bottom of the post when balloting closes.
My American League ballot:
My National League ballot:
Wish I could’ve found room for Kevin Gausman or Charlie Morton on here, but I just couldn’t do it. I also don’t think people realize just how good Josh Hader was this year. His 4.8 WPA was a career high, but was also just really high for a relief pitcher. Here are all the Cy Young and MVP winners among relief pitchers, and their WPAs from their seasons in question:
Eric Gagne, 2003: 6.6
Dennis Eckersley, 1992: 4.6
Mark Davis, 1989: 5.8
Steve Bedrosian, 1987: 3.6
Willie Hernandez, 1984: 8.7
Rollie Fingers, 1981: 3.4
Bruce Sutter, 1979: 3.9
Mike Marshall, 1974: 0.3
Jim Konstanty, 1950: 5.4
I feel like this season by Hader would slide in there very nicely. I mean, it’s no Willie Hernandez, but it stacks up with anyone else on there. So while I would’ve liked to have given him a vote, while I think a vote may even be justified… I still can’t say he’s worth it relative to these guys with much higher innings totals. Yes, Hader saved a lot of games for Burnes and Woodruff… but he’s not in a position to do so if Burnes and Woodfuff aren’t pitching so well to begin with!
Excited to see others’ votes on these awards!
Amazing comeback for Adam Wainwright. 42 pitchers posted an ERA+ under 90 in 300+ IP aged 34-36, and 35 posted an ERA+ over 110 in 400+ IP aged 37-39. Unsurprisingly, Wainwright is the only pitcher to do both. Only others in the age 34-36 group with any sort of career aged 37-39 were Bob Newsom (108 ERA+/693 IP), Mike Morgan (92 ERA+/422 IP), Lew Burdette (78 ERA+/311 IP) and Si Johnson (military service aged 37-38, then 107 ERA+/242 IP aged 39-40).
Doug,
The pitcher whose career is most similar, I think, is probably Bartolo Colon. Colon had three top-6 Cy Young finishes by the end of his age-32 season, winning that most recent one, in 2005. Wainwright had four top-3 finishes, without ever winning the award, by age-32. Over the next six seasons, Colon went 22-31 with a 4.72 ERA (95 ERA+) and was done. He had missed one entire year. He only had one season that could realistically be called a “full season,” and he failed to start 30, even in that one.
But then… then he reinvented himself as “that guy who throws 100% of his pitches at 80 mph and right in the zone.” It worked for him. His hit rate stayed the same as ever, but his HR and BB rates went way down. Over the following 5 years, he went 72-49 with a 3.57 (107 ERA+). Honestly, a five year stretch at that age is Hall-worthy, if he hadn’t had that bizarre odyssey in his mid- to late-30s. Had he averaged 14 wins per season from age 33-38 (as he did from age 39-43), he’d be a Hall of Fame lock next year. He would have 309 wins. Maybe Wainwright still has that good of an arm left. He’ll finish short of Colon’s career wins number (247) almost certainly. But he should cruise over 200 (he’s at 184), and he’ll be fondly remembered as part of the most-connected battery of all-time, with his connection to Yadi Molina.
CC Sabathia is another who comes to mind in the re-invent category. 83 ERA+ aged 32-34, then 115 for ages 35-37. Will be interesting to see how much HoF support he receives with basically the same numbers as Andy Pettitte.
FWIW, I have an ERA+-adjusted record of 227-170 for Sabathia, and 213-155 for Pettitte. In other words, I believe both of them to have been quite win-lucky in their careers, though Pettitte moreso. I believe I have him ranked as the luckiest starting pitcher in history.
Incorporating peaks, and using both fWAR and bWAR, I have Sabathia slightly ahead – 63.1 to 60.2, though I think both are plainly Hall-worthy, and both have a little bit disappointing peak values relative to their WAR totals. That said, both had outsized impacts on playoff races. I don’t have a good way to quantify this, but Pettitte played in tight races for his Division in 1999, 2000, and 2012, and for a Wild Card in 2004 and 2005 (defined as a final margin of >3 games). His team won out each of those times. What’s more, each of those five teams made it to the LCS, and the World Series three times out of five… not to mention the teams that won from less-close races.
Sabathia, meanwhile, also gets credit for those ’12 Yankees, as well as a tight Wild Card battle in ’15 and probably the most heroic second-half pitching effort I’ve ever seen: essentially single-handedly winning the 2008 Wild Card for the Brewers. He pitched four of the final twelve games that year for a team so chaotic they fired the manager… with twelve games to go! He led the Brewers – again, a playoff team – in WAR… and he didn’t join the team until July 8! He led both the AL (2) and NL (3) in shutouts – for a total of five, a number topped only once in the years since! It was a pretty incredible ride that year. I think he’s a Hall of Famer overall; but even if he isn’t, that half-season? He was right up there with anyone.
(FWIW, also, I think Randy Johnson in the second half of 1998 and Jake Arrieta in 2015 might have arguments for an even better second half… but they weren’t dragging my favorite team kicking and screaming into the postseason. Plus, I watched the majority of the Brewers games that year, so I was very in-tune with what they were doing.)
Most deserving of AL relievers would probably be these guys (showing WAR/WPA/IP), the only ones with WAR + WPA over 6.
Jonathan Loaisiga – 3.3/3.3/70.2
Raisel Iglesis – 2.8/3.7/70
Jordan Romano – 2.3/3.7/63
Romano’s WPA led all AL pitchers.
Let’s throw a few extra days on this one; I don’t want my vote to be the only one. Let’s let this ride out to a new deadline:
11:59:59 PM on Tuesday, 12/21/2021.
Thanks!
Still cogitating on my picks. The ordering is the tough part.
Definitely a deeper field in the NL
1) Wheeler – the innings have to count for something, right?
2) Scherzer
3) Buehler
4) Burnes – will he repeat this next year?
5) Suarez – a really impressive transition from the bullpen
1) Ray
2) Cole
3) Eovaldi
4) Lynn
5) Ohtani
I think I could have stopped at Ray & Cole in the AL. I believe that Gaussman and Fried may have had better seasons than the rest of the AL field
AL – Ray, Cole, Berrios, Eovaldi, Lynn
Can’t ignore all that black ink. Ray’s only un-CYA stats are HR allowed and W-L record. Despite allowing 1.5 HR/9, Ray still led in ERA and ERA+; ergo, you pretty much had to homer if you wanted to score against him, as he allowed 45 runs on HR, and only 17 otherwise. As to his W-L record, Ray pitched 6+ IP allowing 2 runs or less in 18 starts, yet had a loss and 7 ND in those games. By comparison, Cole had no losses and only 3 ND in 17 such starts. Ray also picked up his teammates, allowing only one unearned run despite 12 errors made behind him.
How often were the top four off their game: Ray allowed more than 3 runs in only 4 of 32 starts, never allowing more than 5 runs; Cole had 7 of 30 starts, with 3 games higher than 5 R; Berrios was 9 of 32 starts with one game over 5 R; and Eovaldi was 7 of 32 starts, with 4 games higher than 5 R; Eovaldi pitched fewer than 6 IP in 18 of 32 starts, considerably more than Ray (9 of 32), Cole (11 of 30) or Berrios (10 of 32). Would have ranked Lynn higher, but with 30+ fewer IP, tough to compete with the other guys.
I’ll give my NL picks in another post.
NL: Buehler, Wheeler, Burnes, Scherzer, Woodruff
It was basically Buehler and Wheeler at 1 and 1A, and the other three at 3, 3A and 3B. Buehler and Wheeler separated themselves with their IP. Ultimately I gave the nod to Buehler on the better ERA and with his 24 starts (of 33) of 6+ IP allowing 2 runs or less. For Wheeler, it was 17 starts out of 32, and that seemed like enough of a difference to give the edge to Buehler (both had 14 starts of 6+ IP allowing 1 run or less, and it was 8-7 for Wheeler allowing no runs).
The other three were at the next rung down in IP and sported very similar ERA scores. I dropped Woodruff to the bottom with a lower strikeout rate than the other two. For Scherzer (29 starts, ignoring his one batter start when he got hurt) and Burnes (28 starts), in 6+ IP starts it was 18-17 Scherzer allowing 2 runs or less, 16-14 Burnes at 1 run or less, and 8-7 Burnes allowing no runs. On that slimmest of edges, I gave the nod to Burnes.
AL
1) Ray
2) Cole
3) Berrios
4) Lynn
5) Eovaldi
NL
1) Wheeler
2) Burnes
3) Buehler
4) Scherzer
5) Woodruff
Your winners are below!
AL:
1) Robbie Ray, 24 (3)
2) Gerrit Cole, 19 (1)
3) Nathan Eovaldi, 10
4) Lance Lynn, 7
5) Jose Berrios, 6
6) Lance McCullers, 1
7) Shohei Ohtani, 1
McCullers gets the nod for 6th over Ohtani due to his vote being received first. On the other hand, I’d say “7th best pitcher in the AL” is a pretty good placement for a DH!
Paul E had the top four in order, so I’ll give him the nod as the “consensus” ballot.
NL:
1) Zack Wheeler, 22 (2)
2) Corbin Burnes, 16 (1)
3) Walker Buehler, 16 (1)
4) Max Scherzer, 10
5) Brandon Woodruff, 3
6) Ranger Suarez, 1
Burnes and Buehler were tied at 16; they both appeared at #1 once; but Burnes had a second-place vote, whereas Buehler did not, so Burnes takes second place. Other than the vote for Ranger Suarez, the five-man ballot was extremely consistent. Scary Tuna gets the literal consensus ballot, nailing all five in the same order as the group.
Thanks, everyone! I’ll try to have the next post up later today. Thanks!