Author Archives: John Autin

“Was that a record?”

Those tuned in to ESPN for the almost-opener in Miami heard Dan Shulman say that the 2011 Cardinals had 9 different pitchers record at least 1 save.

What’s your gut sense — was that an all-time record? The point here is not to look it up (that’s my job!), but just to say what you think.

(By the way, Shulman was mistaken; only 8 different Cardinals got a save last year, and that includes the postseason, where Jason Motte got all 5 saves. But for the sake of discussion, let’s pretend he was right.)

Pythagorean Estimated Wins for SPs (1893-2011)

[Another work-in-progress. Your observations are welcomed, but please review the “Known shortcomings” at the end of the post.]

Taking suggestions from readers Mike L. and kds, I used the Pythagorean method to calculate the estimated career wins for all starting pitchers with at least 1,000 innings from 1893-2011 (min. 60% of career games as a SP).

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Wins per WAR* for Starting Pitchers [a failed effort]

[Update: The concept of W/WAR has been shown to be fundamentally flawed; see comments by kds @11 and me @25. But I’m leaving the post open for any further comments in the threads.]

I’ve been playing around with ways to reflect the role of luck in starting pitchers’ W-L records, using data that can be pulled up with the Play Index. After muddling about with run support, defensive support and general team quality — none of which can be summoned by the Play Index — it occurred to me that those things are already factored into Wins Above Replacement (“WAR,” using the Baseball-Reference formula).

A simple ratio of Wins per WAR, then, might provide a snapshot of Wins luck for starting pitchers. The higher the ratio, the luckier the pitcher; the lower the ratio, the tougher the luck.

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Age takes no Halladay

Over the past 4 years, Roy Halladay leads the majors with 77 wins, a 160 ERA+ (min. 500 IP), 969 IP and 27.7 bWAR. With 188 career wins through age 34, he’s the active wins leader (at least until Jamie Moyer takes the mound in a real game). He still in peak form, winning 19 last year while leading the NL in ERA+ and pitchers’ WAR.

What are his chances of winning 300?

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