Baseball stats for beginners: the problem with using raw numbers

79 Replies

It’s been years since people learned to look at OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) to judge a player’s season. Let’s say a player qualified for the batting title with a .750 OPS. Was that a good season?

Well, since 1901, there have been 35 times that a player qualified for the batting title with exactly a .750 OPS (well, an OPS between .7495 and .7505):

Rk Player Year ▾ OPS R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG Pos
1 Jason Kubel 2010 .750 68 23 3 21 92 56 116 .249 .323 .427 *9D7
2 Ryan Garko 2008 .750 61 21 1 14 90 45 86 .273 .346 .404 *3D
3 Chad Tracy 2004 .750 45 29 3 8 53 45 60 .285 .343 .407 *53/7
4 Johnny Damon 2003 .750 103 32 6 12 67 68 74 .273 .345 .405 *8/D
5 Luis Castillo 1999 .750 76 23 4 0 28 67 85 .302 .384 .366 *4
6 Ernie Young 1996 .750 72 19 4 19 64 52 118 .242 .326 .424 *89/7
7 Lance Johnson 1993 .750 75 18 14 0 47 36 33 .311 .354 .396 *8
8 Gene Larkin 1988 .750 56 30 2 8 70 68 55 .267 .368 .382 *D3
9 Charlie Spikes 1974 .750 63 23 1 22 80 34 100 .271 .319 .431 *9
10 Carlton Fisk 1973 .750 65 21 0 26 71 37 99 .246 .309 .441 *2/D
11 Curt Blefary 1967 .750 69 19 5 22 81 73 94 .242 .337 .413 *739
12 Rod Carew 1967 .750 66 22 7 8 51 37 91 .292 .341 .409 *4
13 Rico Petrocelli 1967 .750 53 24 2 17 66 49 93 .259 .330 .420 *6
14 Leon Wagner 1964 .750 94 19 2 31 100 56 121 .253 .316 .434 *7
15 Bill Skowron 1964 .750 47 21 3 17 79 30 92 .282 .322 .428 *3
16 Bob Johnson 1962 .750 58 20 2 12 43 32 50 .288 .334 .416 *56/47
17 Daryl Spencer 1958 .750 71 20 5 17 74 73 60 .256 .343 .406 *64
18 Ferris Fain 1953 .750 73 18 2 6 52 108 28 .256 .405 .345 *3
19 Pee Wee Reese 1950 .750 97 21 5 11 52 91 62 .260 .369 .380 *6/5
20 Milt Byrnes 1945 .750 53 29 4 8 59 78 84 .249 .363 .387 897/3
21 Stan Hack 1943 .750 78 24 4 3 35 82 27 .289 .384 .366 *5
22 Marv Owen 1936 .750 72 20 4 9 105 53 41 .295 .361 .389 *5/3
23 Rip Radcliff 1935 .750 95 28 8 10 68 53 21 .286 .346 .404 *7
24 Billy Herman 1934 .750 79 21 6 3 42 34 31 .303 .355 .395 *4
25 Buddy Myer 1930 .750 97 18 8 2 61 58 31 .303 .373 .377 *4/79
26 Shanty Hogan 1929 .750 19 13 0 5 45 25 22 .300 .362 .388 *2
27 Bill Barrett 1927 .750 62 35 9 4 83 52 46 .286 .347 .403 *98
28 Buddy Myer 1926 .750 66 18 6 1 62 45 19 .304 .370 .380 *6/5
29 Topper Rigney 1922 .750 68 17 7 2 63 68 44 .300 .380 .369 *6
30 Ray Schalk 1922 .750 57 22 3 4 60 67 36 .281 .379 .371 *2
31 Pete Kilduff 1921 .750 45 15 10 3 45 31 36 .288 .344 .406 *4/5
32 Jack Smith 1917 .750 64 16 11 3 34 38 65 .297 .351 .398 897
33 Heinie Zimmerman 1914 .750 75 36 12 4 87 20 46 .296 .326 .424 *564
34 Josh Devore 1910 .750 92 11 10 2 27 46 67 .304 .371 .380 *79/8
35 Cy Seymour 1907 .750 46 25 8 3 75 36 35 .294 .350 .400 *8
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/28/2012.

So, what do you think? Good seasons or not?

Well, in 2008, league average OPS was .749, meaning that Ryan Garko’s season on the list above was pretty average. In 1967, the league average OPS was .664 and Curt Blefary played in a fairly tough hitter’s park–so his .750 OPS was quite good.

Factors like the overall level of offense and the tendencies in individual ballparks really affect the meaning of the raw numbers.

Enter OPS+, which normalizes each player’s OPS based on league averages and ballpark effects. Here are the same 35 seasons ranked by OPS+:

Rk Player Year OPS OPS+ ▾
1 Jack Smith 1917 .750 132
2 Cy Seymour 1907 .750 132
3 Heinie Zimmerman 1914 .750 122
4 Curt Blefary 1967 .750 121
5 Stan Hack 1943 .750 119
6 Josh Devore 1910 .750 119
7 Charlie Spikes 1974 .750 116
8 Rod Carew 1967 .750 114
9 Rico Petrocelli 1967 .750 113
10 Milt Byrnes 1945 .750 112
11 Gene Larkin 1988 .750 109
12 Leon Wagner 1964 .750 108
13 Bill Skowron 1964 .750 108
14 Jason Kubel 2010 .750 105
15 Carlton Fisk 1973 .750 105
16 Lance Johnson 1993 .750 104
17 Ferris Fain 1953 .750 102
18 Ryan Garko 2008 .750 101
19 Bob Johnson 1962 .750 101
20 Billy Herman 1934 .750 101
21 Daryl Spencer 1958 .750 100
22 Luis Castillo 1999 .750 98
23 Topper Rigney 1922 .750 98
24 Buddy Myer 1926 .750 97
25 Ray Schalk 1922 .750 97
26 Bill Barrett 1927 .750 96
27 Pee Wee Reese 1950 .750 95
28 Johnny Damon 2003 .750 94
29 Pete Kilduff 1921 .750 94
30 Rip Radcliff 1935 .750 92
31 Chad Tracy 2004 .750 90
32 Buddy Myer 1930 .750 90
33 Ernie Young 1996 .750 88
34 Shanty Hogan 1929 .750 86
35 Marv Owen 1936 .750 85
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/28/2012.

Quite a difference, huh?

Cy Semour was a fantastic player, but you probably wouldn’t guess it from the raw numbers unless you know how much lower scoring was in his era.

79 thoughts on “Baseball stats for beginners: the problem with using raw numbers”

  1. Dr. Doom

    Cy Seymour is also apropos to an ongoing conversation on this blog as to people who have gotten better in their 30s. Seymour was a high-strikeout, high-walk pitcher in his 20s who played in the field when he wasn’t pitching. Then he started hitting full-time, and really took off in 1905, leading the league in everything (basically). He was never that good again (though few are), but he was a solid batter through his mid-30s. Interesting career arc.

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      1. Big Daddy V

        I agree. It’s foolish to ignore the fact that many ballplayers of the time were eating monkey testicles as a performance enhancer.

        Reply ↓
        1. Lawrence Azrin

          Pud Galvin for sure:
          “In 1889, over 100 years before the current steroid controversy in Major League Baseball, Galvin openly used the Brown-Séquard elixir, which contained monkey testosterone.”

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          2. Lawrence Azrin

            GOOGLE – “Banned substances in baseball in the United States – wiki”:

            EXCERPTS:
            “Players have attempted to gain chemical advantages in baseball since the earliest days of the sport. In 1889, for example, pitcher Pud Galvin became the first baseball player to be widely known for his use of performance-enhancing substances. Galvin was a user and vocal proponent of the Brown-Séquard Elixir, a testosterone supplement derived from the testicles of live animals such as dogs and guinea pigs.”

            Also…
            “The book The Baseball Hall of Shame’s Warped Record Book, written by Bruce Nash, Bob Smith, and Allan Zullo, includes an account of Babe Ruth administering to himself an injection of an extract from sheep testicles.[7] The experimental concoction allegedly proved ineffective, making Ruth ill and leading the Yankees to attribute his absence from the lineup to “a bellyache””

            Enough evidence for ya?

  2. Ed

    Good to see that Dr. Doom and I are restoring the equilibrium…

    Two things:

    1) How the hell was someone named Jack Smith allowed to play in 1917. I thought players were required to have cool names back then???

    2) As I’m sure you’re aware, while OPS and OPS+ are definite improvements, they still don’t account for the fact that on base percentage is more important than slugging percentage.

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    1. Jeff Allen

      Jack Smith is a fascinating story, actually. Born Blackie McJewboy, he was forced to change his name when Cap Anson, despite being out of baseball for years and on the vaudeville circuit, successfully lobbied to force him to change his name.
      …
      No, not really, but it sounds feasible to me.

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  3. topper009

    About time Topper Rigney gets some love around here. He did finish with an OBP 100 points above his BA. He also had more walks than RBI and more walks than runs scored, which after looking around isn’t that uncommon.

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  5. topper009

    Here’s a doosey if you are a baseball stats rookie, which player is more valuable?
    Player A: .275/.400/.500 (batting average/on-base %/slugging %)
    Player B: .300/.400/.500
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .

    The answer is player A. They both have the same on-base but since player A has a lower batting average but same slugging percentage he has a higher isolated power. Iso is a fancy way of saying player B hits more singles and player A hits more HRs

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    1. John Autin

      I disagree, Topper. The biggest difference between those two stat lines is that Player B’s .400 OBP has more hits in it than Player A’s .400 OBP, and hits are more valuable than walks.

      Here are two possible sets of raw numbers that will produce the specified averages for Players A and B:
      – A: 700 PAs, 580 ABs, 160 hits, 120 BB, 90 singles, 40 doubles, 0 triples, 30 HRs.*
      – B: 700 PAs, 600 ABs, 180 hits, 100 BB, 120 singles, 30 doubles, 0 triples, 30 HRs.

      Same number of PAs, times on base, HRs and triples.
      The only differences are:
      – A has 20 more walks and 10 more doubles;
      – B has 30 more singles.
      The singles are more valuable.
      ——
      *The actual BA for Player A with these stats would be .276; close enough. It’s tough to find round numbers that produce exactly the specified averages for both players, if they start with the same PAs.

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  6. Hartvig

    Interesting that both Cy Seymour and Heinie Zimmerman were both just one season removed from just missing the Triple Crown.

    And why do I have absolutely no memory of Charlie Spikes?

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    1. Richard Chester

      If you were a Yankee fan you would remember Charlie Spikes. He was the key Yankee player in the Graig Nettles trade.

      Reply ↓
        1. Richard Chester

          Nettles was traded to the Yankees by Cleveland GM Gabe Paul after the end of the 1972 season. Paul knew at the time that he was soon to become GM of the Yankees, so in effect he was trading Nettles back to himself.

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          1. John Autin

            Didn’t look like such a bad trade at the time for Cleveland, though. Charlie Spikes and John Ellis were good prospects, and both gave Cleveland a couple of decent seasons before fizzling.

        1. Hartvig

          Ah, you guys laugh now but just a couple of years after that picture of Charlie was taken I was sporting a pair of sideburns almost that magnificent plus my ‘stash was WAAAY bushier than his…

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  7. topper009

    Also looking through at Billy Herman he hit 57 doubles back to back seasons in ’35-36. Herman is 1 of only 10 to hit 50+ doubles in consecutive years. The others are

    Tris Speaker 1920-21 (50, 52)
    George Burns 1926-27 (64, 51)
    Ducky Medwick 1936-37 (64, 56)
    Stan Musial 1944, 46 (51, 50) missed 1945 due to WWII
    Edgar Martinez 1995-95 (52, 52)
    Craig Biggio 1998-99 (51, 56)
    Todd Helton 2000-01 (59, 54)
    Albert Pujols 2003-04 (51, 51)
    Brain Roberts 2008-09 (51, 56)

    Single season leader Earl Webb (67) never hit more than 30 2Bs any other year, he was clearly taking a doubles enhancing drug in 1931 similar to Brady Anderson’s HR enhancing drug from 1995.

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      2. Lawrence Azrin

        Bill James called this the single greatest fluke record in MLB history, and I’m inclined to agree. While Wilson was a pretty good power hitter for the dead-ball era ((four times in the Top-10 in Extra Base Hits, TB, and RBI; five times in 3B and HR), and hitters frequently reached the 20s in triples, 36 triples in 1912 is massively out of scale with the rest of his career.

        You’d think a big strong fast deadball-era power hitter like Cobb or Speaker or Crawford or Jackson would hold this record, not Owen Wilson.

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        1. John Autin

          It’s also probably one of the biggest park effects in history. Forbes Field was a triples delight for most of its history.

          While splits aren’t available for 1912, the Pirates led the NL in triples by a margin of 129-91 — 42% more than the #2 team. They would have led the league even if Wilson hadn’t hit any triples.

          From 1919, the first year of splits, here are Pittsburgh’s home/road splits in triples:
          – 1919, 58/24
          – 1920, 57/33
          – 1921, 67/37
          – 1922, 79/31
          – 1923, 78/33
          That’s a 5-year average of 68/32.

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        2. Doug

          On the B-Ref blog some time last year, someone dug up a reference to a ground rule in Pittsburgh in 1912 providing for a ground-rule triple.

          The Pittsburgh team triples for 1909-1915 are 92, 83, 106, 129, 86, 79, 91. Perhaps that ground rule was also in effect for at least part of 1911. The difference between 1911 and 1912 is entirely attributable to Wilson, going from 12 to 36 triples.

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          1. John Autin

            Good memory, Doug. It was our friend Richard Chester, comment #16 on this thread.

            My own comment #9 there provides Wilson’s home/road triples splits for the record season (24-12).

          2. Richard Chester

            John: You and I are probably the only guye who remember that thread. Afterwards I scrolled through the Charlton Chronology for 1912. There was mention of some of Wilson’s triples but nothing about ground rule triples.

      3. topper009

        Well it was the greatest fluke season in terms of triples but I wouldn’t say overall. He just had 4.0 WAR that year and 3.2 the year before.

        Infact, this would be a much more interesting “dream team” instead of the boring old best all-time lineup, the dream team of fluke seasons.

        I will nominate
        C Chris Hoiles 1993 (7.2 WAR, 3.5 WAR next best season)
        1B Norm “Cork” Cash 1961 (10.0, 5.3)
        2B Marcus Giles 2003 (8.2, 3.8)
        3B Harry Steinfeldt 1906 (7.8, 4.2)
        SS Terry Turner 1906 (8.4, 3.0)
        OF George Stone 1906 (9.8, 5.2)
        OF Bernard Gilkey 1996 (8.1, 4.0)
        OF Tommy Harper 1970 (7.7, 4.3)
        P Dick Ellsworth 1963 (10.3, 3.8)

        What was in the water in 1906? I’m sure there are better answers that I have missed.

        Reply ↓
        1. Lawrence Azrin

          topper009,

          Some other “fluke” candidates, using your format:
          SS Rico Petrocelli 1969 (9.3,5.3) 40 HR, new AL record for SS
          3B Ken Caminiti 1996 (7.9,5.1)NL MVP, led Padres to NL West title
          OF CY Seymour 1905 (8.4,4.4) missed the Triple Crown by one HR

          Pitcher: Dwight Gooden 1985 (11.7, 5.4) I’m not sure Gooden quite fits into the “fluke” description; he had a great 1984 and people were expecting even better things in 1985

          It’s not as drastic because WAR does not like his defense, but as a super-utility player:
          1B/CF/RF Jim Hickman 1970 (5.0, 2.3) I really remember this one from when I was a kid.

          I’d nominate Cash/1961 as the greatest “fluke” season ever.

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        2. Doug

          Some others.

          LF Bob Cerv 1958 (6.7, 1.7)
          IF Billy Grabarkewitz 1970 (6.5, 0.7)
          C Rick Wilkins 1993 (6.5, 1.8)

          Only guys with one season of 6 WAR, and no other seasons of 2 WAR.

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          1. Voomo Zanzibar

            Billy Grabarkewitz was 24, in his first full season, and posted an ops+ of 134.

            Check out these Super-Utility stats:

            3B 97
            SS 50
            2B 20

            The trade for Dick Allen in ’71 put him out of a job.

            Five more years with five different teams.
            Never had another full season.

          2. Voomo Zanzibar

            Amendment to that:

            Allen was only part of the story, as he only started 67 games at the hot corner.

            The other factor was the rookie season of 21 year-old phenom Bobby Valentine.

            Bobby V got 65 starts at those 3 infield positions.

          3. Voomo Zanzibar

            I’d like to put in a word for Dick Allen’s HOF argument. He had a nine-year peak in which he averaged 7 WAR. Not many players have done that.

            He did it while playing for four teams in the last four years. And he maintained that offense while switching positions pretty frequently.

            And about his defense, how did he get to play just bad third base?

            What were the Phillies doing with him? He started in the minors as a second baseman. His last year down there he got moved to the outfield. But when he cracked the starting lineup in ’64 it was as a third baseman, having played exactly one inning @ 3B as a pro.

            The Phillies outfielders in ’64, and their ops+ from ’63:
            Wes Covington 150
            Tony González 133
            Johnny Callison 140

          4. Ed

            I had a Billy Grabarkewitz baseball card when I was a kid! That definitely brings back some memories.

            I wonder if Billy is the answer to a trivia question…only player with a 6.0+ WAR season and negative WAR for the rest of his career. In the aforementioned 1970 season he had 6.5 WAR yet his career WAR is only 5.6. I’m guessing he’s the only who managed that feat.

          5. Howard

            Dick Allen and Bobby V together was still only part of the story. Billy G, in part because of injuries, never played at a high level after the first half of his rookie season. If he continued to produce the Dodgers would have found a spot for him.

          6. Doug

            Responding to Ed @61.

            Comment about Grabarkewitz (negative career WAR except for best WAR season) is true for players with one season over 6 WAR. A couple of other guys were close.

            Mitchell Page – 6.0 WAR in rookie season, 1.5 WAR rest of career.

            Garrett Atkins – 6.4 WAR in best season, 3.2 WAR rest of career

            Atkins is remarkable comparing WAR to salary.
            Age 25-27: WAR of 10.8, Salary $1.05M
            Age 28-30: WAR of -0.5, Salary $15.44M

          7. Doug

            Further response to Ed @61.

            Few more notable guys with Career WAR < Best single-season WAR (Min. 4000 PAs).

            Kevin Young, 5.4 best, 5.1 career
            Jose Guillen, 3.9 best, 3.7 career
            Dante Bichette, 2.7 best, 2.0 career

            Tangent. All-time worst career WAR, by PA level.
            3000, Bill Bergen, -17.6
            4000, Doug Flynn, -12.1
            5000, Bob Kennedy, -5.2
            6000 & 7000, Alfredo Griffin, -2.4
            8000, Don Kessinger, 5.0
            9000, Doc Cramer, 5.4
            10000, Bill Buckner, 12.1
            11000, Harold Baines, 37.0
            12000, Dave Winfield, 59.7

          9. Hub Kid

            I hope this ends up as a reply to Doug@70. What a nifty list for a tangent! It is a bit of a challenge to the argument that says large numbers of plate appearances is a good indicator of a great career.

            I think I first saw this argument made by Joe Posnanski, and I still find it pretty convincing. I am sure that it can still somehow fit Bill Buckner and others who didn’t make it any further than “very goodness”.

            How many Kessingers, Cramers and Buckners are there, with nominal WAR to show for lots of PAS?

          10. Voomo Zanzibar

            @70
            Wow to Alfredo Griffin.
            Negative WAR with over 7000 PA

            And led the league in errors as a SS five times.
            Career ops+ of 67

            He also won a ROY.
            And he has three World Series rings.

          11. Hartvig

            I feel the need to stick up for Alfredo here- sort of.

            If you ever saw him play you might understand. I didn’t see him an incredible amount during his prime but even later on it seems like he always did something unusual: pull off the hidden ball trick or trick a baserunner into sliding or drive the pitcher to distraction on the bases, all kinds of stuff. A little like Ozzie Guillen if you’re more familiar with him but even more so.

            I’m sure he didn’t do this often enough that it added a whole lot of value to him as a player- it just sticks in the mind because a lot of the time what happened would be so unexpected and even electrifying- but I do think he was a better player than his WAR numbers suggest

        3. Doug

          Couple of pitchers.

          RHP Bill James 1914 (7.4, 0.2)
          RHP Wayne Twitchell 1973 (6.2, 1.1)

          Same criteria: one season over 6 WAR, no others over 2 WAR.

          James also shows up on Raphy’s post today, as having the fewest career wins (37) for any pitcher who won 26 in a season.

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        4. John Autin

          Nice finds, Topper.

          FWIW, I’d suggest replacing George Stone. He played 5 full seasons, and in the first 4 of them his WAR was 4.2 or better. So even though 1906 (9.8 WAR) is way above his next-best year (5.2), his superb year doesn’t seem quite as flukey as others.

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          2. Lawrence Azrin

            Ed,

            I’ll counter with Kevin Mitchell in 1989; not as extreme by WAR (1989 – 7.7; next highest – 4.1; career – 29.7).

            He was a pretty good player the two years before that, but _no one_ saw his MVP year coming. I’d also give him extra points for the barehanded catch of a foul ball in the left field corner, which made all the year-end highlight clips.

          3. John Autin

            Of all players with a 7-WAR season, Zoilo Versalles is the only one with no other 3-WAR seasons. He has the largest raw difference between his best & 2nd-best — 7.6 to 2.6, as Ed noted.

          4. topper009

            I was going to use Zoilo before I found Terry Turner and his 5.4 WAR difference, although Versalles winning the MVP but having only 1 other all-star season really is the definition of a fluke year. John Valentine 1995 (8.5, 4.6) was also in the running for SS.

            I was going to use Darrell Porter but I had to find a replacement due to his 1982 World Series MVP, plus he made 4 all-star teams.

        6. John Autin

          I looked at the 32 players with exactly 1 season of 9+ WAR. The biggest raw difference between their best WAR season and 2nd-best was 4.9 WAR, by:
          – Sammy Sosa, 11.4 WAR in 2001, 6.5 WAR in ’98 (his MVP year).

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          1. Doug

            There are a couple of pitchers with 9 WAR and a bigger spread (6.2 and 6.4) with 2nd best season.

            Scroll up to comment 30 to see.

          2. John Autin

            Doug @57 — Let’s put an asterisk on guys like Dave Davenport who had their one big year in the Federal League.

        7. Tmckelv

          Harry Steinfeldt would also be on the “most overlooked by poetry” team as he shared the infield with “Tinker to Evers to Chance” for 5 years including the 4 WS seasons (1906-08 & 1910).

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        8. John Autin

          More nominees for Topper’s team:

          C – Darrell Porter 1979 (#1 8.4, #2 4.5)
          OF – Willie McGee 1985 (8.5, 4.1)
          OF – Jim Gentile 1961 (#1 7.2, #2 3.4, career 17.7)
          OF – Mike Greenwell 1988 (7.2, 3.7, 23.5)
          OF – Kevin Mitchell 1988 (7.7, 4.1, 29.7)
          OF – Cleon Jones 1969 (7.6, 4.1, 17.3)

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        9. Richard Chester

          I don’t know if this would count as a fluke season because his career was so short (5 seasons) but Jake Jones, the 1947 first-baseman for the White Sox and Red Sox that year, had 96 RBIs (fourth in the AL) and his second best was 13.

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          1. Doug

            Ray Pepper had a similar kind of career to Jones.

            In 1934, Pepper drove in 101 runs for the Browns, while compiling an 83 OPS+. This for a team that scored only 684 runs, last in the AL and 106 runs below AL average.

            Pepper’s next highest RBI total was only 37, and his career OPS+ was only 78. For his career, he is the only player under 95 OPS+ who had RBI > 15% of PAs (min. 1000 PAs).

        10. Doug

          @75 Voomo.

          “Alfredo Griffin … led the league in errors as a SS five times.”

          And, he placed second in errors at SS 4 other times. Alfredo also had six 1st or 2nd placements in errors committed by anyone, regardless of position.

          But it’s not all bad. To his credit, Griffin placed 1st or 2nd 6 times in games played at SS, and had 5 top 5 placements in both range factor and assists at SS, and 9 top 5 placements in putouts at SS.

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  8. Lawrence Azrin

    #33/ John Autin –

    To answer your question of:
    “Lawrence – Do you mean “greatest fluke season,” or “flukiest great season”?”

    I’ll define it as “the season that is the furthest above the players’ established level of performance.”

    Norm Cash had a number of good seasons, most of which were obscured by games missed and/or the lower offensive levels of those years. He never had a year approaching 1961, by either mainstream or advanced statistical analysis.

    Norm Cash in 1961 would be my answer to both of your questions above. I know that we usually don’t pay much attention to Batting Average, but consider this: In 1961 Cash he hit .361. Not only did he never contend for a batting title again (closest was 7th in 1966 at .279), he never even hit .300, or even close to it (only two times .280 or above). He scored and drove in well over 100, and _never_ had a 100 in either catagory again. All of his season highs except doubles were set in 1961.

    Yes, I know about the corked-bat allegations. What makes you think he stopped in 1962, after his tremendous success in 1961? I suppose you could attribute it to being an expansion year, but wasn’t 1962 also the same, in the NL? Some things you just have to call a fluke.

    Reply ↓
    1. topper009

      I don’t think it was an allegation, he admitted to it himself. I think he also claimed to use corked bats throughout his career, not just ’61.

      If this team was based on mainstream stats then Brady Anderson 1996 would have a slot along with Davey Johnson 1973

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      1. Lawrence Azrin

        I also thought of those two, didn’t bother checking:

        Brady: 6.6 in 1996; next best 5.4; career 30.7
        Davey: 1973 wasn’t even his best year (mostly because of defense). Atlanta in the early 70s was a pronounced HR park, so his 43 HR didn’t have quite the value you’d think it would.

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    2. John Autin

      Lawrence — What I was getting at (though I worded it poorly) was the difference between a “head-and-shoulders best year” by someone who still had a good, long career — like Cash — and the same caliber of year by someone who was otherwise ordinary or worse by MLB standards.

      About that .361 BA, Cash himself said, “It was a freak. Even at the time, I realized that. Everything I hit seemed to drop in, even when I didn’t make good contact. I never thought I’d do it again.”

      I couldn’t find an answer to whether or not he corked his bat only in ’61.

      An article in Smithsonian.com says the only benefit from a corked bat is the reduced weight. Balls hit with a corked bat won’t travel as far, they say, but the smaller weight-to-volume ratio could make it easier to make solid contact.
      http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/The-Physics-of-Cheating-in-Baseball.html

      Some others with a big gap between their best BA and 2nd-best:
      Al Wingo, .370, .287, 83 points
      Norm Cash, .361, .286, 75
      George Watkins, .373, .312, 61
      Heinie Zimmerman, .372, .313, 59
      George Brett, .390, .335, 55
      Andres Galarraga, .370, .319, 51
      Jeff Bagwell,.368, .320, 48
      Sam Crawford, .378, .335, 43
      Magglio Ordonez, .363, .320, 43
      (Wingo and Ordonez were also Tigers.)

      BTW, Al Wingo had 5.7 WAR in 1925 and his next-best was 0.7; career total was 6.2. Might be the highest ratio between #1 and #2 seasons, and/or highest ratio between #1 and career, for any player with a 5-WAR season.

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      1. Lawrence Azrin

        The big difference between Cash and most of the guys you listed above is that Cash was _never_ known as a high-average hitter (besides 1961), while most of the above (certainly Brett, Bagwell, Ordonez, and Crawford) were usually high-BA guys.

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  9. Lawrence Azrin

    To put a .750 OPS in context:

    – in the 1968 AL, 15 of 44 players qualifying for the batting title surpassed it
    – in the 1930 NL, 33 of 44 players qualifying for the batting title surpassed it

    In 1968 it was quite an accomplishment, in 1930 it didn’t mean much.

    John A. – I want to mention that when I posted my Kevin Mitchell comment, I noticed that you had posted your list of flukes which also included Kevin Mitchell, exactly NINE SECONDS apart!

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  10. Andy Post author

    just checking in on this post for the first time today and I see there are 50 comments already…that’s a bit daunting. Usually I read comments as they come in real time.

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