Cy Seymour was arguably one of the best pitchers turned hitters that baseball has seen, yet he remains almost forgotten. Before he was a centerfielder, the 1905 NL batting champ started his career as pitcher in 1896. Seymour pitched 3 full seasons and had the league leading strikeout rate in all three. Even though Seymour’s career strikeout rate does not look impressive, when strikeouts are normalized, his rate is the best baseball has ever seen (1871-2011 min. 1000 IP). (For a biography and analysis of Seymour’s career, see this wonderful piece by Bill Kirwin.)
Andy’s recent posts on normalizing strikeouts piqued my interest and I thought that it might be interesting to normalize the strikeouts for every pitcher in major league history. This was done by using the Lahman Database and applying the following method:
- For each league in each season I calculated the league rate of SO/IP.
- Each player in that league was assigned an expected number of strikeouts based on his IP that season.
- Each player’s season-by-season expected strikeouts were added up for his career and compared it to his actual career totals.
Using this method provides us with the following leaders in ratio of SO:Expected SO (min. 1000 IP) since 1871.
Rank |
Name |
IP |
SO |
Expected |
SO:EXP |
1 |
1029.00 |
584 |
268 |
2.180 |
|
2 |
2966.67 |
2045 |
959 |
2.132 |
|
3 |
2961.33 |
2316 |
1200 |
1.929 |
|
4 |
5386.00 |
5714 |
3178 |
1.798 |
|
5 |
2100.67 |
1515 |
886 |
1.711 |
|
6 |
4135.33 |
4875 |
2912 |
1.674 |
|
7 |
2324.33 |
2396 |
1437 |
1.667 |
|
8 |
3769.67 |
1934 |
1184 |
1.634 |
|
9 |
1606.00 |
1493 |
918 |
1.626 |
|
10 |
1361.33 |
593 |
368 |
1.612 |
|
11 |
1967.33 |
1163 |
725 |
1.603 |
|
12 |
2113.00 |
1242 |
776 |
1.601 |
|
13 |
3827.00 |
2581 |
1617 |
1.596 |
|
14 |
3940.67 |
2266 |
1422 |
1.593 |
|
15 |
2104.67 |
1294 |
834 |
1.552 |
|
16 |
1915.00 |
1024 |
660 |
1.551 |
|
17 |
2827.33 |
3154 |
2036 |
1.549 |
|
18 |
2492.33 |
2453 |
1586 |
1.546 |
|
19 |
2503.00 |
1468 |
955 |
1.538 |
|
20 |
2826.33 |
1674 |
1090 |
1.536 |
|
21 |
1289.33 |
1251 |
819 |
1.528 |
|
22 |
1535.33 |
935 |
612 |
1.527 |
|
23 |
1371.33 |
1576 |
1036 |
1.521 |
|
24 |
1562.33 |
765 |
503 |
1.521 |
|
25 |
5914.67 |
3509 |
2318 |
1.514 |
|
26 |
1436.33 |
989 |
657 |
1.505 |
|
27 |
1643.33 |
1376 |
920 |
1.496 |
|
28 |
1066.33 |
568 |
383 |
1.484 |
|
29 |
1321.00 |
839 |
566 |
1.481 |
|
30 |
2993.00 |
1796 |
1228 |
1.462 |
Of course it is more impressive to pitch at a high rate over a long career than a short one. Using the numbers above and an all-time league average of 4.78 SO/9IP provides us with a new list of career SO leaders.
Rank |
Name |
Adjusted |
SO |
SO |
1 |
5139 |
5714 |
1 |
|
2 |
4752 |
3509 |
9 |
|
3 |
4389 |
2803 |
20 |
|
4 |
3703 |
4672 |
3 |
|
5 |
3674 |
4875 |
2 |
|
6 |
3629 |
4136 |
4 |
|
7 |
3539 |
2562 |
27 |
|
8 |
3370 |
3701 |
5 |
|
9 |
3356 |
2045 |
60 |
|
10 |
3351 |
1366 |
234 |
|
11 |
3332 |
2266 |
47 |
|
12 |
3284 |
2502 |
30 |
|
13 |
3269 |
1934 |
77 |
|
14 |
3241 |
2581 |
26 |
|
15 |
3212 |
3640 |
6 |
|
16 |
3200 |
2198 |
53 |
|
17 |
3178 |
1868 |
84 |
|
18 |
3157 |
3534 |
8 |
|
19 |
3154 |
3574 |
7 |
|
20 |
3032 |
2316 |
44 |
Ryan is still on top, but there is a lot of shuffling below him, as the older players move up with the adjustment. Particularly impressive is the jump made by 19th century pitcher Bobby Mathews, if you’re willing to accept his leagues as full major leagues. Mathews was either first or second in his league in SO/9IP in eight different seasons, so a jump like that would be logical.
Gives me a bit more appreciation for Lee Smith.
BTW – There was some discussion yesterday about Billy Wagner. Wagner didn’t quite get to 1000 IP so he is not in the post. His SO:EXP was 1.75 – right behind Nolan Ryan.
Raphy, you read my mind.
Anyone know what happened in the American Association between 1886 and 1887? League SO/9 fell from 4.4 to 2.9 in one year. Matt Kilroy, who beat Toad Ramsey for the K crown in ’86, dropped from 513 SO to 217, despite pitching more innings in ’87.
I think strikeouts went from three to four in the American Association between 1886 and 1887, it went back to three in 1888.
Also, I think walks were officially counted as hits in figuring BA that year only. Hence, Tip O’Neill was listed with a .492 BA many many years ago.
According to the New Bill James HBA (pg. 39), you’re exactly right — the 1887 AA required four strikes for a strikeout. 19th century baseball — what can you do? 😀
Don’t know, John.
Baseball Almanac credits Toad Ramsey with introducing the knuckleball in 1887. Ramsey finished just behind Kilroy in 1886 with 499 Ks, and led the AA in 1887 with 358. He had one more good season in 1888 before the wear-and-tear caught up with him, and was done by 1890 at only 26 years old.
Bobby Mathews at number 10 on your second list. According to his bio at SABR, Mathews pitched a six-K shutout in the first National Association game of its very first season, 1871, which makes that the game b-ref treats as the very first major league game. So I guess that means Mathews was the first MLB career strikeout leader.
The SABR bio also suggests Mathews may have been one of the first two pitchers to master a curve ball, which would help explain his high number of Ks relative to his peers.
I do love to read bios of these earliest pioneer pro players — they help remind me how different the game was. For example, Mathews was pitching underhand, presumably for much of his career.
A couple I know own a house in Albany, New York that Cy Seymour, or a relative of his once lived in. When they bought the house they found all sorts of “Seymouriana” that they still have.
I’m really impressed with your writing skills and also with the layout on your weblog.
Is this a paid theme or did you modify it yourself?
Either way keep up the nice quality writing, it is rare to see a nice blog like this one today.