45 thoughts on “Walk rates for hitters in uncertain pursuit of 3,000 hits”

1. Richard Chester February 8, 2012 at 5:52 pm

   In 2007 Biggio got his 3000th hit in his 72nd game. During that 72 game period he had one HBP, far less than his career average of one HBP per 10 games.

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2. Lawrence Azrin February 8, 2012 at 6:22 pm

   Sam Rice retired after the 1934 season with 2,987 hits, with no publicity about falling short of 3,000. Paul Waner got a great deal of publicity in 1942 when he was pursuing (and reaching) 3,000 hits. So somewhere between these two years is when getting 3,000+ career Base Hits became a really big deal.

   I think that was tied in with the founding of the HOF in 1936, the first induction in 1939, and the resultant self-awareness of baseball history. 3,000 hits was not a big deal to Zack Wheat and George Sisler; I’m sure it WAS a big deal to Al Simmons (he had 2,869 hits after the 1939 season, and played three more years to get 58 more hits).

   I think the walk rate would be most significant for post-WWII players in the 100/150 PA immediately before getting 3,000 hits. When you’re that close, human instinct would strongly influence that player to swing, instead of taking in borderline pitches.

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   1. John Autin Post authorFebruary 8, 2012 at 10:07 pm

      Good point, Lawrence.

      Do you have any sense of the publicity on Rogers Hornsby’s retirement, following the 1937 season, with 2,930 hits?

      Also, I’m still not entirely clear on the dynamics involved in that theory. Consider:
      — Eddie Collins in 1925 was the 6th to reach 3,000 hits in 1925.
      — No one else reached 3,000 hits until Paul Waner, as you noted, in 1942, 3 years after the first HOF inductions.
      — After Waner, it was another 16 years until Stan Musial crossed 3,000 in 1958, the 8th to that plateau.
      — Meanwhile, in between Rice (of whom you said there was no publicity on his falling short of 3K) and Musial, only Hornsby and Simmons came within 100 hits while falling short.

      I’m not well read on the history of 3,000 hits, but that list somehow doesn’t quite add up to an explanation of how 3,000 hits became such a big deal.

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      1. Lawrence Azrin February 9, 2012 at 1:06 pm

         John A.,

         I’m only re-stating what Bill James wrote, but again, I think that 3,0000 hits did not became a significant milestone until the establishment of the baseball HOF focused attention on the past history of MLB, and related statistical milestones. Lefty Grove getting his 300th win (after seven tries) in 1941 was also a big deal at the time.

         Milestones such as 3,000 hits or 300 wins simply don’t happen that often, so I don’t see any significance that there was a 16-year gap between Paul Waner and Stan Musial in 1958, it’s just a random variation. Looking at the all-time Career Hits leaders, no one really was close between 1942 and 1958, so they didn’t play a year or two beyond when they should’ve retired. Luke Appling had 2,749 at age 43 in 1950 – but he did have a very good age-42 season, a mediocre part-time age-43 season,and retired.

         As for Hornsby – I think the last five years of his MLB career he was a manager who liked to use himself as a pinch-hitter, and to sometimes play in in the field. Getting 3,000 hits seem didn’t enter into it, or he would’ve started more games in the field. Of course, if he had played a full 1930 season (he only had 104 AB), he probably would’ve had the 3,000 hits by the end of that year.

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         1. Richard Chester February 9, 2012 at 1:25 pm

            Hornsby had a heel spur operation after the 1929 season and was limping after the start of the 1930 season. It probably explains why he batted only .308 in the best hitting year ever. Then he broke his ankle on May 30th of that season and played no more. Without those injuries he would easily have reached 3000 hits.

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            1. Lawrence Azrin February 9, 2012 at 2:33 pm

               Richard,

               Did the broken ankle finish Hornsby as a regular player? He came back with a fairly good 1931 (163 OPS), but only played 100 games. After 1931 he hardly played. Of course, he was 36 in 1932, so he may have been close to done anyway.

               However, if indeed he had played regularly in several more seasons, his lifetime BA probably would’ve dropped below Joe Jackson’s .356, from his .358 (NL-average BA’s dropped quite a bit after 1930), and his reputation might’ve suffered a bit.

               The Land-Of-“What If” is lots of fun, huh?
      2. Mike L February 9, 2012 at 1:55 pm

         There’s at least one other possibility to explain the lack of a 3000 hit batter from 1942 to 1958, which is that both WWII and to a lesser extent, the Korean War took players out of the line up.

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         1. Richard Chester February 9, 2012 at 2:21 pm

            Ted Wiliams, with 2654 hits and nearly 5 years lost to the two wars, surely would have reached 3000 hits. Mickey Vernon (2495 hits, two years lost), Enos Slaughter (2383 hits, 3 years lost) and Joe DiMaggio (2214 hits, 3 years lost) would have had a fighting chance for 3000 hits.

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            1. Mike L February 9, 2012 at 4:30 pm

               Since we are counting, Sam Rice (2987) served in WWI. Richard-I think you and I (and Frank) get to hold up the Veteran’s Committee of HHS?
            2. Richard Chester February 9, 2012 at 5:55 pm

               Good point Mike, I never even thought about WWI. I did some research on him. He said that when he retired at age 44 he was unaware of how many hits he had. A couple of years later Clark Griffith asked him if he wanted to return to th ML and try to muster 13 hits but Rice just didn’t want to bother with the fuss of getting back in shape.
            3. Richard Chester February 9, 2012 at 5:59 pm

               I accidentally posted #30 before I was through. Many years later, when asked, he said that with the fuss nowadays about reaching 3000 hits, he would have tried for it.

               He played well even in his older years, never hitting less than .293. That is the highest minimum batting average for all players with 10 years of service. All years are counted, even if a player had only one AB.
   2. Richard Chester February 9, 2012 at 12:24 pm

      Paul Waner had class. Going into the game of 6/19/42 he had 2999 hits. He hit a shot that SS Eddie Joost couldn’t handle and reached first safely. It was questionable as to whether it was a hit or an error. The official scorer ruled it a hit but Waner disagreed. Not wanting a tainted hit Waner was able to send a signal back to the scorer to indicate his displeasure with the ruling. The scorer complied and changed the hit to an error. Waner got his 3000th ht two days later.

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      1. John Autin Post authorFebruary 9, 2012 at 12:31 pm

         Good story, Richard.

         I think something like that couldn’t happen today even if the player wanted it to. There would be so much publicity leading up to #3,000, with ESPN doing live look-ins every time the player came up to bat with a chance at #3,000. As soon as the “H” went up on the scoreboard, there would be various forms of fanfare. I think the official scorer would feel compelled to stick with the initial ruling.

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      2. John Autin Post authorFebruary 9, 2012 at 12:34 pm

         By the way, the sponsorship of both Waner boys’ B-R pages is currently available — $90 for Paul, $55 for Lloyd.

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      3. Dr. Doom February 9, 2012 at 12:53 pm

         I recall there being the exact opposite story about Roberto Clemente – that the scorer wanted his last hit to be scored an error, but he hemmed and hawed about it (don’t know if this is true; don’t remember where I read it). I don’t think it’s necessarily a sign of class or lack of class, because I think the record shows that both of these guys were pretty classy players. It’s just a pride issue, and how one wants to be remembered.

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         1. Luis Gomez February 9, 2012 at 2:00 pm

            The Clemente story goes like this: On september 29th, 1972, sitting on 2999 hits, Clemente hit a hard grounder to second base, which he thaught was hit 3K, but the official scrorer gave an error on the play. Clemente didn’t like the call and he said it publicly. A day later facing Jon Matlack of the Mets in the bottom of the fourth inning, Clemente hit a double off the left field wall for a clean 3000th hit. A big sign appeared on the scoreboard, the ovation went for a few seconds and he retrieved the baseball. Little did anybody knew it was going to be his last regular season hit.

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            1. Dave V. February 9, 2012 at 2:18 pm

               Here’s some other interesting info about the game he did get his 3000th hit: http://communityvoices.sites.post-gazette.com/index.php/sports/bob-smiziks-blog/29085-jeters-pursuit-of-3000-hits-recalls
            2. Dr. Doom February 9, 2012 at 2:35 pm

               Thanks, Luis! I knew it was something along those lines, but I couldn’t remember exactly. I appreciate it.
3. MikeD February 9, 2012 at 2:46 am

   Two thoughts/observations:

   If the walk rates were to decrease as a player approached 3,000, then shouldn’t we expect their walk rates to increase (or normalize) once they reach 3,000? the pressure’s off, so they revert back to their old hitting styles. Perhaps another data point — 1 year post 3,000 — might provide more clarity.

   Second, players with decreasing walk rates might simply be getting older. I’d imagine a decent percentage of players approaching 3,000 were already on the decline, so their walk rates might decrease naturally. That said, I took a look at many of the players clustered in the 2,900-3,100 range and I didn’t see anything unusual in their walk rates, outside of Craig Biggio’s collapse in walks, yet he was limping into 3,000 on all offensive fronts.

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   1. kds February 9, 2012 at 7:42 am

      Since walk rates are relatively more mental and less physical than, say, HR rates, or BA, we should not expect a steep decline due to aging. Some hitters learn that they can be productive even if they cannot get around on a good fastball if they become more selective. Look at Mays, he had a career high in BB% 14% in 1970, his 19th season. He set his career high in BB and BB% the next year.

      We are going to have difficulty getting meaningful results here because the sample size is so small. Biggio seems like the perfect example because it looked pretty clear that he was done as a good player, the team was going nowhere, and 3000 hits was about the only thing left to play for. For many others on the list, for example Jeter and Clemente, none of those things were true. How close do they have to be to expect some sort of effect? If I-Rod comes back I would expect that it would only be as a part time player, so he would need at least 2 years to hope to get there. Would he be hacking all the way? With A-Rod, who still has power, also won’t get to 3000 before 2013, but as of now, he still has enough left in the tank to expect to be useful for some time, so we should not expect him to change his approach to limp across the 3K hit line.

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   2. John Autin Post authorFebruary 9, 2012 at 10:57 am

      But walk rates in general do not decrease with age — they increase. Even in the late 30s.

      I looked at age-35 seasons from 2001-2010 (min. 200 PAs). Those 120 players averaged 66.3 BB per 700 PAs.

      Those same players, from age 36 to end of career, averaged 67.6 BB per 700 PAs.

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      1. Mike L February 9, 2012 at 12:08 pm

         John A. is 1.3 BB/700 significant enough to be much more than noise? I would think that older players would go deeper in the count because they were less confident in their reflexes. What does your sample say about strikeout rates for the same age group?

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         1. John Autin Post authorFebruary 9, 2012 at 12:20 pm

            Mike L — I don’t know if the 1.3 BB increase is significant enough to be more than noise. But given the premise that virtually all hitters are declining in ability from age 36 onward and thus less intimidating to pitchers — which would lead to a presumption of reduced walk rates — then I think the small increase is meaningful.

            As to the K rate, this sample showed no change — 107.6 SO/700 PAs at age 35, 107.4 thereafter.

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            1. Dr. Doom February 9, 2012 at 12:51 pm

               Of course, if you’re looking at the whole population of MLB, the guys who are playing past age 35 are usually ridiculously good players. I mean, it’s not like Yuni is still going to be playing at age 37. So I would imagine there’s some sort of bias towards higher walk totals. I’ve never really seen any studies that compared the population of >35 players only to themselves when they were younger, but there’s plenty of anecdotal evidence to see (check Willie Mays, for example). Anyone else have any ideas?
            2. Mike L February 9, 2012 at 1:12 pm

               All kidding aside about Yuni, I wonder if Dr. Doom isn’t on to something. Power hitters can have longer careers and the expected drop in their batting averages may be a little less meaningful if they can still crank one out. Perhaps the sample-set is slightly skewed.
      2. MikeD February 10, 2012 at 10:44 am

         Walk rate increasing as a player ages is interesting, although I wonder if its consistent across all class of players. Perhaps the walk rate of power hitter, such as a Frank Robinson or a Ruth, will be maintained or even increase as he tries to zero in on the one pitch he can still drive, where maybe a player who is less of a HR threat, such as a Biggio or Jeter, will begin to see a decrease.

         I guess I’ve drifted into an entirely different discussion, since what I’m wondering has nothing to do with 3,000 hits, but the walk rate of aging players. Both interesting topics.

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         1. John Autin Post authorFebruary 10, 2012 at 3:07 pm

            MikeD — I took a quick look at the in-career progression of walk rates for low-power hitters. It confirmed the general trend: walk rates increase with age.

            I formed a pool of 129 live-ball-era hitters with long careers (min. 5,000 PAs) and low career HR rates (no more than 1% of PAs). I excluded anyone whose first full season came before 1920.

            I then divided their careers roughly in half — years 1-8, and years 9-end. A crude technique, in that it ignores any one player’s actual career length as well as changes in playing time. But I don’t want to spend all day on this, and it did produce a grouping with slightly more PAs, as a group, in the “first half” of their careers.

            As a group, these low-HR hitters averaged 57.2 BB per 700 PAs in the “first half” of their careers, and 60.9 in the “second half” — an increase of more than 6%.

            On an individual basis, almost 2/3 of the players had a higher walk rate in their second half. Almost 1/4 increased by 20% or more. Only 20 of the 129 decreased by as much as 10%.

            I would be surprised if there were any broad group that did not have this tendency, with the possible exception of those who already have very high walk rates right at the start of their careers.

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            1. MikeD February 11, 2012 at 1:14 am

               Okay, that’s great. Thanks for the information. I suppose it’s possible that any player who doesn’t adapt and maintain/increase his walk rate never will make it to be an “older” player.
4. Jimbo February 9, 2012 at 3:52 am

   A guy with an outside shot at 3000 hits showed a large marked decline in walks last year.

   Chipper Jones.

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5. Jimbo February 9, 2012 at 3:59 am

   Sorry make that 2 guys with outside shots at 3000 hits who both reduced their walks drastically last year.

   Chipper Jones

   And a player who finally became an unproductive hitter but still racked up plenty of hits while reducing his walks amost nil. Pitchers used to pitch around him, but now that all he hits are singles, they don’t do that, and hence he gets no walks at all. His lack of productivity makes his chances at 3000 appear to be disappearing.

   Vladimir Guererro.

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   1. moonlight graham February 9, 2012 at 12:43 pm

      Chipper’s walk rate may have something to do with the hitting coach in Atlanta last year, as a lot of the players on the roster had lower walk rates. I’m not sure of that though because I doubt that Chipper would attempt to change his approach based on what a new hitting coach suggested. Even with the lower walk rate, his OPS+ increased from 2010, so he was able to increase his slugging enough to keep the same production.

      One thing to look for with chipper is his career .300 average and .400 on base. With a couple of more down years, he may reach some counting number milestones but see his rate stats decrease below those numbers.

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   2. MikeD February 10, 2012 at 10:50 am

      Was it ever possible to pitch around Vlad Guererro? : -) He seemed more likely to swing at the ball in the dirt than the one right down the middle!

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6. Jimbo February 9, 2012 at 4:09 am

   And Pudge may have made the move to swing at everything a couple of years ago, but his chances at 3000 appear gone anyways.

   Ichiro’s walks also slightly dropped.

   Bobby Abreu’s have been in continuous decline but so has he as a hitter overall. Same goes for Damon.

   So while in the past this trend doesn’t appear to exist, I would argue that for the present, it does seem to be happening.

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   1. Lawrence Azrin February 9, 2012 at 11:24 am

      As for Ivan Rodriguez’s chances for 3,000 hits – he will be 40 years old in 2012, and is 156 hits away from 3,000. Last year he played 44 games and got 27 hits, at an OPS of 66. Unless he emulates his namesake Carlton “Pudge” Fisk and plays another 5/6 years, he’s gonna fall short.

      There’s always the outside chance that he signs on as a back-up catcher, the starter gets hurt, and he fills in for a couple months, gets hot and piles up a bunch of hits. Actually, I don’t even know if he has signed anywhere yet – is he going to be a NRI somewhere? B-R only lists him as being granted free agency on October 30th.

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7. Tmckelv February 9, 2012 at 3:07 pm

   I guess it looks like an increased walk rate (last 3 years) cost Frank Robinson 3000 hits. Or maybe if he kept his career walk rate, he could have gotten close enough to allow for him play more as player-manager for the Indians to get the milestone.

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   1. Jimbo February 9, 2012 at 5:57 pm

      It certainly cost Bonds his 3000 hits.

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8. Dr. Remulak February 9, 2012 at 9:42 pm

   Ripken selfishly hurt his team by refusing to take a day off. Looks like that mentality extended to his approach at the plate as he approached 3,000 hits.

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   1. Jimbo February 10, 2012 at 4:12 am

      Sure hurt the team when he was putting up by far the best numbers of his career? Joke I assume?

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      1. Dr. Remulak February 10, 2012 at 3:53 pm

         Through age 30 Ripken’s OPS+ was 126. Stubbornly remaining in the lineup every day, his next seven seasons his OPS+ was 92,97,107,92,102,93,89. Hardly “putting up by far the best numbers of his career.” No joke. Sit down, Cal.

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         1. birtelcom February 10, 2012 at 4:54 pm

            After reading your comment, I was curious as to what a typical veteran with a career OPS+ of around 126 as of his age 30 season did in his next six or seven seasons. So I checked. I found 125 guys since 1901 with at least 3,000 PAs, and an OPS+ of from 121 to 131, through age 30. I then looked at the OPS+ those guys put up from age 31 on (but excluding seasons after age 36). Ripken’s post-age 31 (but not after age 36) OPS+ of 97 is tied for 106th among those 125 guys.

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            1. Dr. Remulak February 10, 2012 at 6:07 pm

               Supports the Ripken wore down by plying eveyday hypothesis. Well done birtelcom, for a statistical analysis beyond my primative capabilities.
            2. Ed February 10, 2012 at 6:23 pm

               I generally agree however Ripken was playing a physically demanding position. I “think” that shortstops tend to wear down quicker than other positions.
            3. birtelcom February 10, 2012 at 11:22 pm

               The only two star shortstops who were really close to Ripken in OPS+ though age 30 have been Lou Boudreau (126 career OPS+ through age 30, same as Ripken) and Vern Stephens (123 OPS+). Both of them completely fell apart immediately after their age 30 season. Boudreau had a 161 OPS+ in his age 30 season, followed at age 31 with a 99 OPS+ at age 31, and played in only 167 games thereafter, with an OPS+ of 87. Vern Stephens was essentially the same story after age 30 — drops to 95 OPS+ at 31, 85 OPS+ at 32, and only 126 games played thereafter. The next shortstop up the ladder of OPS+ through age 30 is Nomar Garciaparra, with a 132 OPS+ through age 30. Nomar was himself rather famously disappointing after age 30 (Boston cut him loose during his age 30 season, just in time to win the World Series without him). This is obviously a tiny sample, but suggestive. Maybe it is really is very hard to continue as a star shortstop after age 30, whether or not you have an iron man act going.
            4. John Autin Post authorFebruary 10, 2012 at 11:34 pm

               Ed @41 — I don’t know exactly how to best test your theory that shortstops wear down more easily than other positions. But 10,000 PAs has been reached by 74 players (since 1893), and 10 of those were shortstops.

               The full breakdown:
               C — 1
               1B — 5
               2B — 8
               SS — 10
               3B — 9
               OF — 34
               DH — 2
               (And 5 who didn’t play 50% of their games at any one position.)

               Cut the threshold to 7,500 PAs, and shortstops account for 42 out of 305, which is still a little more than their “fair share.”
9. Mike L February 15, 2012 at 8:47 am

   Regarding John A’s post on 3000 hits, there’s an article in today’s New York Post about how some GM’s think that Damon’s pursuit of 3000 hits is changing him as a player-less patient, less willing to take a walk, swinging at more pitches out of the strike zone. That perception may be getting in the way of him getting a contract (of course, there’s the Boras factor as well, but..)

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