Saturday game notes

Matt Kemp smacked 2-run HRs in the 1st and 2nd innings as the Dodgers improved baseball’s best record to 8-1, their best start since 1981. Of course, they’ve only played San Diego and Pittsburgh so far. Kemp leads the majors with 5 HRs & 15 RBI and has a 1.458 OPS.

Edwin Jackson‘s 92-pitch 2-hitter set a personal best with an 87 Game Score. Jackson, who had never before gone as many as 8 innings on less than 99 pitches, and who tossed 70 balls in his 2010 no-hitter, threw just 25 balls to 30 batters and didn’t have a 3-ball count until the 8th inning, when he issued his only walk.

  • It was the 5th straight Nats game allowing 2 runs or less and lowered their team ERA to 1.82, with 1 HR allowed. Their starters have a 1.75 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and 4.23 SO/BB ratio.
  • More importantly, first-place Washington is now 7-2, matching the best start in Nats/Expos history. The last time they started 7-2 was 1981, which was also the team’s only playoff appearance.

The Orioles are alone in first place after their second straight comeback win in Toronto.

  • It’s not how you start…. The O’s sat in first place at 6-2 in 2011, 2009 and 2008, but didn’t reach 70 wins in any season.

The Marlins may be learning the maxim every fantasy baseball player learns sooner or later: Never pay for saves. A corollary says, shun 34-year-olds with declining K rates. Miami signed Heath Bell for a guaranteed 3 years and $24 million, even though his K rate last year lunged to 7.3 SO/9, after averaging 9.8 from 2007-10. Saturday’s blowup was Bell’s second blown save in as many tries. He’s faced 21 batters over 3 innings, allowing 8 hits and 3 walks, with just 2 strikeouts. Bell allowed 4 hits in both blown saves; that’s as many 4-hit games as in his full three years as the Padres’ closer combined.

Protecting a 2-1 lead, Craig Kimbrel loaded the bases with 1 out, then slipped free with a couple of strikeouts. It was his first save ever when allowing 3+ baserunners; he’d allowed a total of 35 baserunners in his 50 prior saves.

After sitting out three games with a broken pinkie, David Wright deemed himself fit to hit Saturday, then proved it by planting some ivy on the first pitch he saw, keying New York’s second straight win in Philadelphia. Wright added a pair of singles and is now 10 for 17 with 4 walks and just 1 strikeout (4 below the SO pace of his past 3 seasons). This is the earliest the Mets have won a series in Philly since 1987.

Rangers 6, Twins 2: Despite losing their top starter to free agency, Texas leads the AL with a 2.22 ERA. In 40 years in Texas, their lowest season ERA was 3.31 in 1983, when they led the junior circuit; they haven’t finished better than 3rd in ERA since then.

Giants 4, Pirates 3: On the day they learned that The Beard may be out for the year, San Francisco leveled their record with their third straight win. The decisive run scored on an error by Clint Barmes, the 2009-11 dWAR leader among middle infielders. Pittsburgh surpassed 2 runs for just the second time in eight games, but still lost their 5th straight. The Bucs are hitting .180 with 8 walks and are 5 for 41 with RISP; they’ve had the bases loaded just twice.

Phil Hughes (beaten up by the Angels today) was named an All-Star in 2010 after an 11-2 first half. In 29 starts since then, Hughes is 11-11 with a 5.65 ERA, averaging less than 5-1/3 IP per start.

When a 2-out HR in the 9th turns defeat into victory … now, that’s what I call a walk-off. (And as a special parting gift, here’s a bonus squeeze play.)

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Neil L.
Neil L.
12 years ago

JA, thank you sparing the hapless Toronto bullpen, a supposed strength this season, in your mention of the Orioles victory. Feeling sorry for myself over the Blue Jays four blown saves in their first 8 games, I decided to do a little digging to see how rare it was to blow four or more saves in a team’s first 8 games. Since the process involved eyeballing a lot of lists generated by the Play-Index, I only searched back to 1990, a span of time consisting of 668 team seasons, including 2012. To my surprise it has occurred 11 times for… Read more »

Neil L.
Neil L.
12 years ago
Reply to  Neil L.

Oops! Toronto won their season opener! 🙁

Oh well. It’s not so bad after all. I should have double checked before hitting submit. ~red face~

Neil L.
Neil L.
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

JA, an interesting reply. Thank you. You are bringing the whole traditional save vs positve-reliever-WPA back to life again.

So the moral of the story is ….. it is difficult to survive a heartbreaking start from your bullpen?

How far back did you search, JA? Some of your found seasons, match the traditional blown save criteria.

Neil L.
Neil L.
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

How does a blown save stack up against The Fangraphs “meltdown”?

You are talking about a reliever WPA of -0.100 or worse? Why not just set it to the opposite of a shutdown, WPA <= -0.060?

Doug
Editor
12 years ago

The Indians mashed for a second straight game, shredding both Jonathan Sanchez and his “lamb to the slaughter” replacement Tim Collins. Will Johnny Damon be able to crack this juggernaut lineup?

For the second time in as many nights, the Tribe had at least 5 starters with nary a zero in their batting line, something they last did on Apr 18-19, 2006 against Baltimore. Last time they did it 3 games in a row was May 10-12, 2000 against Minnesota and Kansas City.

Oh, and Casey Kotchman is off the trifecta snide with a HR and two walks.

Ed
Ed
12 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Actually I’d say it’s 3 games in a row since they scored 6 runs in the game before that (a 10-6 loss). According to ESPN, they’ve homered in each of their first 7 games which is the 4th longest season opening stretch since 1918 (not sure if that factoid is specific to the Indians or to all teams).

Doug
Editor
12 years ago

Jesus Montero, who swatted 4 HRs in only 61 AB, in his first season for the Yankees last year, got his first dinger for Seattle who blanked the As 4-0 behind 8 innnings of 5-hit ball by Hector Noesi, the other player the Mariners received with Montero in the Michael Pineda deal.

Noesi’s 8 IP tonght, in his 4th career start, are more than he pitched in total in his prior 3 starts.

Ed
Ed
12 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Going into the game Montero was almost a member of the “imperfect trifecta” club. The only thing keeping him out is that his OBP was actually lower than his BA.

Shping
Shping
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Was first time Seattle-ites got to see Montero’s homerun trot too. Kind a strange, loping/lunging/lurching stride that reminded me of Fisk. Hopefully thats a good sign.

Neil L.
Neil L.
12 years ago

“This is the earliest the Mets have won a series in Philly since 1987.”

1987 was a very good year for the Mets, JA. (As if you don’t know) They had the league’s best offense, but came up just short to the Cardinals. What are the feelings among the Mets’ faithful this year? Are they singing I’m A Believer or Don’t Stop Believin’?

How long will the NL East stay topsy-turvy? The Phils are looking vulnerable in the early going.

birtelcom
birtelcom
12 years ago
Reply to  Neil L.

Mets fans are happy with the start but wary, a bit ironical in their expressions of pleasure, as might be expected. Was there a Madoff curse? The Mets had the best record in the NL East, and the fourth best record in the najors, over the four-year period from 2005 through 2008 (.551 winning percentage). Then Bernie Madoff was arrested after the 2008 season, and the Mets played .465 ball over the 2009-2011 period. Then near the end of spring training this year, the Wilpons settled with the Madoff trustee, agreeing to pay back a pile of money into the… Read more »

birtelcom
birtelcom
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Personally, I don’t think the Wilpons had any suspicion as to what was really going on, any more than the SEC, or scores of other sophisticated men, women and organizations who were invested with Madoff. The degree to which the Wilpon family was personally invested with him to the end does not suggest to me any awareness that it was a scam. But we’ll never know for sure now that the matter has been settled without a trial. The bottom line is they have agreed to repay a fair estimate of their net profits from the scheme, which is, it… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
12 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

Birt:
I believe one SEC investigator said and reported Madoff was running a scam at $2 billion, $5 billion and $20 billion; however, those reports fell on deaf ears.
For the Wilpons to offer Bobby Bonilla $20,000,0000 deferred (for ten years) in lieu of his final salary of $5.8 million says volumes about their “anticipated” returns on money invested with Mad Bernie.
For them to take the recent “deal” offered at 50% of the original asking/tag on their obligations to the “plaintifs”, says an awful lt about what their attorneys think

Neil L.
Neil L.
12 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

Paul E @16, I had no idea the whole Mets/Madoff/Wilpons issue was so opaque.

From a distance I thought, clearly simplistically, that it was always a clear-cut, good-guy, bad-guy issue. Madoff = bad guy, Mets/Wilpons = good guys.

I know this discussion is far from the on-diamond play, but ……

Neil L.
Neil L.
12 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

“Has karma been restored?”

I love your sense of humor, birtelcom, or it your sense of justice? 🙂

You and JA are of like mind about the Mets’ tangled ownership saga.

birtelcom
birtelcom
12 years ago

Most HRs in Dodgers’ first 9 games of a season:
6 Wally Moon (1961)
5 Andy Pafko (1951), Carl Furillo (1955), Mark Grudzielanek (2001), Matt Kemp (2012)

Mike Schmidt is the all-time through-nine-games leader across all teams, with eight homers in the Phillies’ first nine games in 1976. Schmidt’s total was helped along by four in one game in the fifth game of the season (an 18-16 win in 10 innings for the Phils at Wrigley). Mike had 11 homers through 12 games that season, but only 27 more the rest of the way.

Neil L.
Neil L.
12 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

birtelcom, very nice catch. Matt Kemp is raking and he is a large part of the Dodgers hot start.

Mark Grudzielanek on the all-time Dodgers hot-start list?

Michael E Sullivan
Michael E Sullivan
12 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

“only 27 more”?

My, we certainly have become accustomed to the run context of the 90s and 00s.

Schmidt’s mere 27 HR’s after that 12th game were enough to give him the major league HR title with 38. Even if he’d gone homerless in his first 12 games, he still would have been tied for 6th in the majors and 5th in the NL. In the AL that year, only Nettles had more than 27 homers for the whole year at 32.

MikeD
MikeD
12 years ago

Nettles is a good name to bring up here as a reminder of how early season HR stats and rates can be misleading. In 1974, Nettles hit 11 HRs for the month of April, tieing Willie Stargell for the MLB record most HRs in that month, a record Schmidt would also tie in 1976 (since broken by Griffey Jr.). Yet after hitting eleven in April, Nettles would go on to only hit 22 for the entire year. Yet his HR pace that season was even more crazy, kind of a bookend year. He hit another seven in September, so eighteen… Read more »

Doug
Doug
12 years ago
Reply to  MikeD

I would have guessed the same thing – that a bunch of homers early on wouldn’t necessarily be a reliable predictor for the season. But, the results in my Matt Kemp post today seem to paint a different story.