Reigning at the Hot Corner

34 Replies

Who is the “most valuable third baseman in baseball”? Wins Above Replacement can be one tool to help answer that sort of question, but using a single season’s WAR number can sometimes leave us subject to random fluctuations in single-season performance that may not fully reflect a player’s real, long-term value. For that reason, I like to use a longer-term test of true WAR-generating results, say for example, over a three-year period. Let’s try a three-year test over the history of the third base position and see what we come up with as a running measure of who has been the “most valuable third baseman in baseball”.

One note on method first. Over the past three seasons (actually more like two and four-fifths seasons), 2010 through 2012, Miguel Cabrera has accumulated more total WAR than any other major leaguer at any position. Cabrera is also playing third base this year. So arguably he is the most valuable third baseman in baseball. But before this year, he hadn’t played any third base since 2008 and had not been a regular at that position since 2007. So it’s a little odd to say he’s been the top third baseman in baseball over the past three years. For purposes of this exercise, I’ve only included as eligible to be the “most valuable third baseman over a three-year period” those players who, over the three-year period being measured, played third base more than they played any other position. That test knocks Cabrera out of the running for the third base title for 2010-2012 (although it does make him the most valuable first baseman over the past three years).

So who is actually the third baseman with the most WAR over the 2010-2012 period? According to baseball-reference’s numbers, Adrian Beltre has opened up a meaningful lead, at 17.4 WAR for 2010-2012, over Evan Longoria at 15.8, as of today. Longoria has struggled since getting back from the injury that cost him a good portion of the season, but he is still within range of catching Beltre if he gets hot and Beltre tails off — either one could still end up as the third baseman with the most WAR over the full 2010-2012 period.

Longoria is looking to hold on to the “top three-year-WAR” title among third basemen that he held after both 2010 and 2011. Here’s a list of all the “top three-year-WAR” title holders among major league third basemen, going back to the beginning of the 20th century. As you read the list, keep in mind that when it says that Longoria held the title for 2010 through 2011, that means he had the most WAR (baseball-reference version) in the majors among third basemen for the three-year period 2008 through 2010 and then also for the three-year period 2009 through 2011.

Evan Longoria 2010-2011
Alex Rodriguez 2005-2009
Scott Rolen 2003-2004
Chipper Jones 1998-2002
Jim Thome 1996-1997
Matt Williams 1995
Robin Ventura 1993-1994
Edgar Martinez 1992
Wade Boggs 1985-1991
Mike Schmidt 1976-1979, 1981-1984
George Brett 1980
Darrell Evans 1974-1975
Sal Bando 1971-1973
Tony Perez 1970
Ron Santo 1965-1969
Eddie Mathews 1955-1961, 1963-1964
Ken Boyer 1962
Al Rosen 1952-1954
George Kell 1951
Sid Gordon 1950
Bob Elliot 1944-1945, 1948-1949
Whitey Kurowski 1946-1947
Stan Hack 1941-1943, 1945
Harlond Clift 1937-1940
Odell Hale 1936
Pinky Higgins 1934-1935
Woody English 1933
Pie Traynor 1925, 1932
Freddie Lindstrom 1928-1931
Willie Kamm 1926-1927
Andy High 1924
Jimmy Johnston 1923
Frankie Frisch 1922
Heinie Groh 1916-1921
Frank (“Home Run”) Baker 1910-1915
Art Devlin 1906-1909
Bill Bradley 1903-1905

A couple of points regarding this list:
— The number of WAR required to be the third base leader over a three-year period varies enormously from one three-year period to another. So for example, over the three-year period ending with 1967, Ron Santo totaled 25.6 WAR, the most over a three-year period by any major leaguer whose primary position was third base. Contrast that with, for example, the total of 7.4 WAR accumulated by Pinky Higgins over the three years ending in 1934. Although that 7.4 WAR three-year total would have been merely the fourth-best one year WAR in Santo’s career, it was nevertheless the best three-year total by a third baseman in the majors over that 1932-1934 period.
–Because there is such a wide variation in the number of WAR needed to get on this list, some guys with high WAR numbers will fall short if they those high numbers come in the wrong three-year period. After the 1979 season, George Brett had a three-year WAR total of 20.9, which was the second-highest three-year total by any hitter at any position over those three years, 1977-1979. That level of three-year WAR would usually be plenty good enough to be the top third baseman in the majors over a three-year period. But Brett doesn’t appear on this list for 1979, because Mike Schmidt’s WAR total over 1977-1979 was even higher than Brett’s. That happened to Brett quite a bit — one of the greatest third basmen ever to play the game, but not the greatest third baseman of his generation.
–You may notice that in a few instances, two guys are designated on the list for the same year. That’s because there was a tie for the lead for that particular three-year period — in those cases, I’ve listed both guys.

0 0 votes

Article Rating

34 Comments

Oldest

Newest Most Voted

Inline Feedbacks

View all comments

e pluribus munu

11 years ago

Interesting post, bitelcom, with a few surprises for me (no Brooks!), but it looks as though your list lost the first third of the last century. A glitch?

Author

birtelcom

11 years ago

Reply to e pluribus munu

Thanks, epm. Not sure how I knocked off the bottom of the list when I posted (especially it’s that part of the list where you’ll find fewer of the “usual suspects” and more less familiar names) but it’s back now. And thanks to Doug, too, who pointed out that I left off 1962 (Ken Boyer). That’s restored as well.

Jeff

11 years ago

The method used above ironically leaves out the 5th best 3B of all time (when it comes to fWAR) Brooks Robinson. Brooks falls behind A-Rod, Schmidt, Eddie Mathews, and Boggs in terms of career fWAR.

One other interesting note, Brooks’ fielding score per fangraphs is nearly double that of the next closest player (Buddy Bell).

Author

birtelcom

11 years ago

Reply to Jeff

B-ref has almost identical fielding numbers for Bell and Brooks as Fangraphs does — I think both systems are using pretty much the same fielding metrics for historical WAR at this point. The two systems differ a bit on more recent years. B-ref now has Beltre ahead of Buddy Bell in career fielding WAR (but still light-years behind Brooks), while Fangraphs still has Beltre a bit behind Bell, though gaining quickly.

Adam Darowski

11 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

Yes, Fangraphs uses Total Zone for pre-UZR seasons. B-R uses Total Zone for pre-DRS seasons.

Doug

11 years ago

So Eddie Mathews almost had a clean sweep for a decade. But who is the winner for 1960-62?

Glad to see George Brett made it for at least one 3-year period.

I’d forgotten Perez played 3rd base, but that he did for 1967-71. Strangely, he played nary an inning there at any time afterward.

Hartvig

11 years ago

Reply to Doug

” But who is the winner for 1960-62?”

Ken Boyer- he’s right below Mathews because of Mathews ranking both before and after 62.

As surprising as it is not to see Robinson or to only see Brett once on this list it does make sense because of who their careers overlapped with. The same may have been said of Rolen if Chipper hadn’t spent a few years playing left field.

Hartvig

11 years ago

Reply to Hartvig

And given his reputation for many, many years among a large number of supposed baseball experts this list does a really good job of pointing out just how wrong they were about Pie Traynor. During his years as a regular he was beat out by such luminaries as Jimmy Johnson, Andy High, Woody English and Pinky Higgins not to mention one of the least deserving HOF picks ever- Freddie Lindstrom- for 3 years in a row in the middle of Traynor’s prime. Yet for almost 50 years most supposed baseball experts and fans alike considered him the greatest to ever… Read more »

Author

birtelcom

11 years ago

Reply to Hartvig

Traynor had superb batting average and RBI numbers. For a very long time these were treated as the most important hitting numbers there were, the OBP and SLG of their time. Let’s create a stat called the DAN, an acronym for the Dark Ages Number, the formula for which is very simple: batting average multiplied by RBI. I used the Play Index Game Finder to give me all the regular season games by guys starting at third base from 1918 (as far back as the Game Finder goes) all the way through 8/26/2012. Then I looked for the highest career… Read more »

Author

birtelcom

11 years ago

The absence of Brooks Robinson from the list reflect the facts that (1) his very high career WAR numbers are more about having many, many fine seasons rather than a dominant prime, (2) his prime WAR seasons, in the mid-to-late 1960s, overlap with Santo, who was more of dominant-prime type guy. The top 5 WAR seasons in each guy’s career: Santo (1967) 9.6; Brooks (1968) 7.9 Santo (1966) 8.7; Brooks (1964) 7.8 Santo (1964) 8.6; Brooks (1967) 7.3 Santo (1965) 7.3; Brooks (1962) 5.8 Santo (1968) 6.3; Brooks (1971) 5.8 Santo had nine seasons of WAR of 3 or more;… Read more »

BryanM

11 years ago

birtelcom Fantastic list! for at least since 1950, who are the best hitting third basemen (offensive WAR only ) and best fielding ? (defensive WAR only) hope it’s not too much work , but hoping to see the other A-Rod (Aurelio, of course)

brp

11 years ago

Funny to think of Edgar playing any real position for a three-year stretch… hell of a hitter, though.

birtelcom

11 years ago

Reply to brp

From 1990 through 1992, only Robin Ventura and Wade Boggs played more games in the AL at third base than Edgar. In his first eight seasons in the majors, through age 31, Edgar played in 556 games at third and 80 games as a DH (and about 20 games as a pinch-hitter).

brp

11 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

Well, I was born in 1984 so I mostly remember ‘Gar as a DH on those perpetually underachieving Mariner teams. The fact that he was the best 3B man for any stretch of time caught my eye, as I think he’s deserving of a very long look at the HoF and this definitely supports that to a degree.

Luis Gomez

11 years ago

Reply to brp

Does anyone knows what was the deal with Edgar? Was it injuries that prevented him for taking the field, arm troubles, or he just had a brick inside his glove?

Doug

11 years ago

Reply to Luis Gomez

Martinez suffered a “turf toe” injury (similar to what football players were prone to in the Astroturf days) playing a pre-season game on the carpet in Vancouver. Never healed properly, apparently.

Brooklyn Mick

11 years ago

Reply to Luis Gomez

According to Bob Finnigan of the Seattle Times: “His left leg plagued him through the years, and the first injury was the worst, tearing the hamstring at Vancouver’s B.C. Place, running from first base in the last exhibition game in 1993.” Finnegan later adds: “But the leg was never really right, with more hamstring troubles, the quad strained in 2001, two tendons removed in 2002, and a broken big toe in 2003.”

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/sports/mariners/edgarmartinez/finnigan.html

Chris

11 years ago

Very interesting to see Freddie Lindstrom as the best for a few years, since it seems like a lot of people think he was a poor choice for the Hall of Fame.

Adam Darowski

11 years ago

Reply to Chris

It’s not that Lindstrom was a bad player. He had some very good years. In fact, in three of his seasons, he posted 61% of his total value. Also, he didn’t have much competition at the position at the time. That’s how you get a flukey guy like Lindstrom on this list while Brooks Robinson doesn’t appear.

Lawrence Azrin

11 years ago

I still do (think Lindstrom is a very poor HOF choice). His career was very short for a HOFer (1438 G/6108 PA), he wasn’t one of the impact players of his time, and there are at least half a dozen third basemen on the above list who are clearly better HOF candidates than him; Edgar, Ken Boyer, and Stan Hack being the most obvious ones (not that I think all of those should go in tomorrow). Robin Ventura, a clearly better player with a much longer career (2079 G), got 7 votes in 2010 and was off the ballot… and… Read more »

Adam Darowski

11 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

I don’t see Lindstrom as remotely belonging either. It’s just that he was a good player for a short time and those players are capable of having big seasons that would get them on a list like this. For the record, here are the 3B I see as belonging: Mike Schmidt Eddie Mathews Wade Boggs George Brett Brooks Robinson Ron Santo Graig Nettles Home Run Baker Deacon White Buddy Bell Sal Bando Ken Boyer Darrell Evans Of course, I support all of these players in a world where we are free to throw everyone out of the Hall and start… Read more »

Brooklyn Mick

11 years ago

Reply to Adam Darowski

Adam, of these Hall of Fame 3rd basemen, Collins, Kell, Lindstrom, and Traynor aren’t on your list. Frank Baker Wade Boggs George Brett Jimmy Collins* George Kell* Freddie Lindstrom* Eddie Mathews Brooks Robinson Mike Schmidt Pie Traynor* Just for fun, kick em out, but they can only be replaced on a one for one basis. I realize you said all or none, but what the heck. Pick four, and only four, from your list. You indicated that Deacon White would be your first choice. Of the remaining five, who are the two odd men out? Graig Nettles Buddy Bell Sal… Read more »

Adam Darowski

11 years ago

Reply to Brooklyn Mick

Fun game. 🙂

As I stated in a comment below, I’ve got no problem with Collins, so let’s keep him there. That means rather than picking three from Nettles/Bell/Bando/Boyer/Evans, I have to pick two.

I’m inclined to trust my calculations and pick from the top and select Nettles and Bell. Those put a lot of stock in the defensive abilities of those players, but I don’t think those reputations are in any doubt. And we’re not talking about fielding-only guys. One had 2500 hits and 200 homers while the other had over 2200 hits and nearly 400 homers.

Brooklyn Mick

11 years ago

Reply to Adam Darowski

I like the game too Adam, but now I realize that I forgot to mention Ron Santo. What are your thoughts on Ronnie being the latest inductee? I personally think he belongs. As for Nettles, I agree, but I would give the nod to Boyer over Bell because he had a very nice 10 year peak, was a very good defenseman, although admittedly not as good as Bell, but still very good, and he was a better hitter. I also weight his MVP, especially since it was in a championship season. On top of that, his grand slam in the… Read more »

Adam Darowski

11 years ago

Reply to Adam Darowski

Well, I’ve got Santo in my Top 6, so I certainly see him as belonging.

I have no problem with Boyer over Bell. Like I said, there are five or six third basemen who just don’t seem to want to make themselves stick out from the rest. And the thing is, many were peers.

Lawrence Azrin

11 years ago

Reply to Adam Darowski

Adam, I agree w/pretty much everything you wrote, except I’d put Stan Hack in ahead of any of the last four you listed. Lead-off hitters are like Rodney Dangerfield to the HOF, they just don’t get noooo respect. Despite your list above, I still think that Jimmy Collins belongs in the HOF; Bob Elliot and Heinie Groh (just for the name) also deserve a mention. Is Molitor not considered a 3Bman? AS #17/hartvig observed, it’s instructive that Pie Traynor, often regarded for many years (1935-1980?) as the best third baseman eever, was usually not even the best third baseman in… Read more »

Adam Darowski

11 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

I should clarify… all of this is based on my spreadsheets of adding different weights to WAR. Collins is RIGHT at the cutoff. Ron Cey and Stan Hack are also very close. I have no problem with the induction of Collins and would have no problem with Cey and Hack getting in. It’s just hard for me to argue for them over the other guys listed above.

Regarding Pie Traynor… shit, people just don’t realize how good Frank Baker was.

Lawrence Azrin

11 years ago

Reply to Adam Darowski

To me, Frank Baker and Sam Crawford are similar in that they were two of the premier power hitters of the dead-ball era and were regarded as very good players in their time, but not quite good enough to be HOF-worthy by the writers (Baker – peaks at 30.4%, Crawford 4.2%).

Adam Darowski

11 years ago

Reply to Adam Darowski

Throw George Davis and Arky Vaughan in as more extreme cases, too.

Oh, and Bill Dahlen. WAIT HE’S NOT IN YET. 🙁

Joseph

11 years ago

Reply to Adam Darowski

Nettles is included in the imaginary Hall of Peak-Weighted WAR:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/10350

He belongs in the HOF also.

Adam Darowski

11 years ago

Reply to Joseph

Hehe, that project is my baby. 🙂

Joseph

11 years ago

Reply to Adam Darowski

Yes–I’ve liked your idea ever since I read it. And not just because it includes Nettles. It’s a fun way to look at player value.

So thank you!

no statistician but

11 years ago

Bill Bradley, I must admit, I’d barely heard of, and wondered why the lauded Jimmy Collins wasn’t listed for some early years. Collins has the better career fielding stats but falls in behind Bradley, it seems, as a hitter for the period considered, and he also was in his 30s whereas Bradley was eight years younger and at his peak.

Still, Collins had a longer, more productive career, higher WAR and OPS+.

Ken

11 years ago

“–You may notice that in a few instances, two guys are designated on the list for the same year. That’s because there was a tie for the lead for that particular three-year period — in those cases, I’ve listed both guys.”

Actually, there are two listed only once, in 1945 – Bill Elliot and Stan Hack. Am I missing something, or maybe you revised the list after writing the above?