18 thoughts on “3/15/25 – Previewing Coming Attractions”

1. RJ February 27, 2013 at 9:02 pm

   Posey gets dinged here because of his time lost through injury, but his WAR/162 is the highest of that 10-14.9 WAR group.

   Looking at the up and comers list, I can’t believe that Justin Upton is only 25. It feels like he’s been around forever.

   I don’t think Brandon Belt is suddenly going to bust out a 6.5 WAR season, but he’s been improving and a solid 3-4 WAR year probably isn’t beyond him. He hit .329./392./482 down the stretch last year so there’s signs of encouragement.

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   1. Doug Post authorFebruary 28, 2013 at 12:39 am

      Another player who doesn’t even show here is Joey Votto, who was under 10 WAR through age 25, but through age 29 is now up over 24 WAR.

      That late start, though, is likely destined to stunt his career totals. With a quick bat and a sharp eye, he may have another 20+ WAR left in his career, but I’m not sure I’d make a hefty wager on it.

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      1. RJ February 28, 2013 at 1:18 am

         Another player missing the cut is Pablo Sandoval, who had 9.2 WAR from 23-25 but 5.1 WAR as a 21-22 year old. He is also someone with injuries during that time frame. The good news is he has now had the hamate bones from his right and left hands removed, so he can’t injure those again. The bad news is that he’s clearly still eating too much ham off the bone.

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      2. Voomo Zanzibar February 28, 2013 at 3:12 am

         You wouldn’t bet on three more 5+ WAR seasons out of Votto plus a handful of stragglers?
         Right now he’s about halfway between Berkman and Bagwell through the same age.

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         1. John Nacca February 28, 2013 at 8:42 am

            IMO, as long as Votto can play at least 150 games a year for the next 4 years, through the end of his peak, and stay in that ballpark, he is a cinch for 20 war before 2016. Guy is just toooo good of a pure hitter.

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            1. Ed February 28, 2013 at 9:34 am

               Votto put up 204 batting runs between ages 24-28. Here is a list of players with a similar total (194-214) at the same age:

               Duke Snider
               George Sisler
               Ron Santo
               Lance Berkman
               Todd Helton
               Paul Waner
               Fred McGriff
               Vladimir Guerrero
               Prince Fielder
               Ryan Braun
               Eddie Mathews
               Chipper Jones

               Just looking at the retired players – and including Berkman and Helton in the retired group – those players averaged 182.5 Rbat for the rest of their careers. The range is quite large however, going from Sisler (45) to Chipper (357).
         2. Doug Post authorFebruary 28, 2013 at 1:16 pm

            My concern is not what Votto has accomplished over the past four years. It’s more what he didn’t accomplish before then.

            Here are the players with 190-220 Rbat through age 28 (Votto has 204), showing what they did from age 29 on. Based on these guys, it’s pretty much a tossup whether he has another 20 WAR.

            Rk	Player	WAR/pos	From	To	Age	G	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
            1	Chipper Jones	50.2	2001	2012	29-40	1564	6542	.304	.404	.525	.930
            2	Gary Sheffield	37.2	1998	2009	29-40	1550	6611	.295	.398	.527	.924
            3	George Brett	37.0	1982	1993	29-40	1616	6916	.295	.371	.482	.852
            4	Willie McCovey	35.0	1967	1980	29-42	1646	6242	.266	.378	.502	.881
            5	Derek Jeter	34.0	2003	2012	29-38	1492	6914	.311	.376	.437	.813
            6	Harmon Killebrew	33.0	1965	1975	29-39	1440	5787	.253	.383	.487	.869
            7	Todd Helton	31.0	2003	2012	29-38	1302	5596	.312	.419	.502	.921
            8	Mike Piazza	26.2	1998	2007	29-38	1223	4889	.292	.364	.527	.891
            9	Lance Berkman	25.5	2005	2012	29-36	1031	4272	.290	.403	.530	.933
            10	Fred McGriff	21.8	1993	2004	29-40	1577	6578	.287	.369	.499	.868
            11	Jim Wynn	20.8	1971	1977	29-35	901	3696	.235	.365	.402	.767
            12	Will Clark	20.6	1993	2000	29-36	948	3972	.305	.394	.485	.878
            13	Home Run Baker	19.2	1916	1922	30-36	676	2823	.288	.347	.404	.751
            14	Ron Santo	17.1	1969	1974	29-34	867	3553	.271	.360	.442	.802
            15	Jim Rice	17.1	1982	1989	29-36	1055	4565	.291	.351	.470	.821
            16	Babe Herman	16.1	1932	1945	29-42	702	2669	.304	.365	.497	.861
            17	Rocky Colavito	11.3	1963	1968	29-34	835	3353	.259	.352	.438	.790
            18	Charlie Keller	10.1	1946	1952	29-35	444	1420	.267	.397	.491	.888
            19	Jim Bottomley	8.3	1929	1937	29-37	1075	4312	.291	.349	.460	.810
            20	David Wright	6.7	2012	2012	29-29	156	670	.306	.391	.492	.883
            21	Darryl Strawberry	4.8	1991	1999	29-37	474	1777	.248	.351	.469	.820
            22	Ross Youngs	1.5	1926	1926	29-29	95	421	.306	.372	.398	.770
            23	Hal Trosky	0.0	1944	1946	31-33	223	895	.246	.328	.359	.687

            Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
            Generated 2/28/2013.

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            1. John Nacca February 28, 2013 at 6:09 pm

               Doug…I have to VERY respectfully disagree, using the basis that for quite a few of these players, their careers ended, for whatever reason, very early, whether it be drugs (Strawberry), death (Youngs), injuries (Keller, Colavito, Trosky), or the time in which they played (Baker, Herman, Bottomley) where players didn’t usually play much past 35. I do agree with the statement that Votto was a late bloomer, but as I stated, if he stays injury free, you have to bet the house on him staying in the majors until he is in his late 30’s, and while accumulating a lot of WAR is slimmer after 35, it STILL is accumulating. Outside of the Top 10 on the list above, how many played past 35 at all?

               Well, let’s see….23 names, out of the Top 10, 7 of them played into the 21st Century where players tend to play longer (Killebrew, McCovey, Brett). Of those 10, they have 41 seasons after the age of 35 (36+). Of the rest of the list (12 names if you throw out Wright), there are only 14, and that isn’t including the 4 (Santo, Colavito, Youngs, Trosky) who didn’t even MAKE IT to 35.
            2. Doug February 28, 2013 at 7:43 pm

               I know what you’re saying, John, and you could very well be right.

               But, being a first baseman, Votto isn’t going to get any WAR bump from his defense. He’s already a -2.5 career dWAR and that accumulation can only accelerate as he ages.

               Fred McGriff might be a good comp. Despite playing until 40 (and with very creditable offense), he accumulated only 21.8 WAR; because he was a -12.2 dWAR over that period. That’s the main reason I hedge on Votto’s WAR accumulation – WAR just isn’t kind to first basemen.
            3. Voomo Zanzibar February 28, 2013 at 8:08 pm

               One thing Votto will accumulate is money.
               He is signed through 2024!
            4. bstar February 28, 2013 at 9:17 pm

               I’ll easily take the bet that Joey Votto is going to get 20 more WAR for his career. He’ll get 20 in the next four years if he avoids major injury.

               The guy’s just a great hitter, period, and the most athletic first baseman defensively in the majors–by far. So even if he slumps offensively (he’s almost too good to slump for very long), his defensive numbers are still going to be there for a few more years.

               Doug, Votto has over 23 WAR in his last four seasons and has missed over 90 games in that span (so it’s really 3.5 years of actual playing time). And you don’t think he’ll get 20 the rest of his career?

               That seems like the very bottom rung of his possible career outcomes. I understand about his age and all, but he’s entering his age-29 season and has fresher legs than most 29-year-old stars, doesn’t he?

               Plus he’s playing in the Great American Launching Pad, and he’s led the NL in OBP for three straight years. I don’t think the art of drawing walks is suddenly going to drop from Votto’s game as he ages.

               I see major injury as Votto’s only roadblock to the Hall of Fame. Yes, the Hall of Fame.

               For some perspective, I looked at all first basemen with over 20 WAR from ages 25-28 (Votto had 23.1). The list includes 6 Hall of Famers, plus the following players: Pujols, Bagwell, Helton, Tex, Big Hurt, Will Clark, Keith Hernandez, and Miggy. That’s a pretty impressive group.

               The average WAR for the retired players in the group post-age 28 is 28.9. The only two players on this list to not get 20 more WAR after 28 are George Sisler and Hank Greenberg, and Greenberg had 19.2 despite missing three years from the war. As for the active guys, Helton (31 WAR) and Pujols (26) are over the 20 mark already, and Tex has over 15 through age 32.

               I wonder if you would say Miguel Cabrera is not going to get 20 more WAR for HIS career, because Votto has 3 more wins the last four years (in far fewer games) and is a year younger than Miggy.
            5. John Autin February 28, 2013 at 9:36 pm

               This is a very interesting point, Doug. Votto first became a MLB regular at age 24, and generally, there’s a huge difference in future performance between that group and those who were regulars by age 22.

               This is true even if you match up subsets with similar performance for age 24-28 (Votto’s years).

               I’d still take the “over” on 20 future WAR, because of the contract. Look at Helton — he’s been quite an ordinary 1B over the last 5 years (age 34-38), but regular playing time has let him amass 6.2 WAR.
            6. John Autin February 28, 2013 at 10:47 pm

               I’m puzzled by the “if he stays healthy” angle in this Votto thread. His talent is obvious — who could doubt that he’ll do great things if he stays healthy?

               But most players do get injured. And we’re talking about a 29-year-old coming off a 111-game season.

               I took a similar tack as Doug’s table @7, just using OPS+. I found 21 modern retired guys very similar to Votto’s numbers for age 24-28 — he had a 156 OPS+ and just under 3,000 PAs, so I used 2,500+ PAs and OPS+ 150-160.

               Junior Griffey got hurt. So did Albert Belle, Duke Snider and Will Clark. George Sisler missed his age-30 season and was never the same. Chick Hafey got hurt at 32 and that was about it for him. Ron Santo faded fast past age 30.

               8 of the 21 OPS+ comps amassed less than 20 WAR after age 28, and 11 were under 25 WAR.

               Mets fans had David Wright headed to the Hall when he averaged 5.8 WAR in his first 4 full years. Then he got beaned, and averaged 3.5 WAR in his next 4 years (including last year’s resurgence).

               Remember when Mark Teixeira was a great player? And Hanley Ramirez? Chase Utley? Grady Sizemore? Carl Crawford? Eric Chavez?
            7. Fireworks March 5, 2013 at 9:46 pm

               I’d put more faith in Votto. He isn’t a massive HR hitter for his talent but he’s best pure hitter in baseball for me right now (you could counter with Miggy), and he has a long contract.

               If someone were setting the over/under on Votto’s career WAR at 50 (another ~24) I’d take the over.
2. John Autin February 28, 2013 at 9:09 pm

   Doug, what a wonderful piece of work.

   I do think that every increment in age 23-25 WAR significantly increases the chance of reaching a career milestone.

   For example, those with 18+ are far more likely to reach various career levels than those with 15-17.9. (Similar to your comparison of 15+ to 12-14.9.)

   I took your base group of 15+ WAR for age 23-25 (using just the 69 retirees) and sorted them by WAR for that period. Then I divided them roughly in half at the 18-WAR threshold. (Coincidentally, that line ran between Bobby Bonds and Junior Griffey.)

   There were 32 players with 15 to 17.9 WAR age 23-25 (average 16.3 WAR), and 37 with 18+ WAR age 23-25 (average 21.6 WAR).

   – Career WAR: The first group averaged 55.1, the second group 87.7.
   – How many reached 45 WAR? First group, 75% (24/32). Second group, 89% (33/37).
   – How many reached 60 WAR? First group, 38% (12/32). Second group, 78% (29/37).
   – How many reached 90 WAR? First group, 6% (2/32). Second group, 46% (17/37).

   Two reasons for this, or maybe two aspects of the same reason:

   1) The higher the peak, the longer they can last before falling under replacement level.

   2) More WAR at 23-25 likely means more WAR before age 23. In my two groups above, the first group averaged 5.1 WAR through age 22, the second averaged 9.0 WAR through age 22.

   In fact, WAR through age 22 may be even more telling than age 23-25.

   I took those same 69 players and sorted them by WAR through age 22, then divided them at the 4-WAR line — 32 players with less than 4 WAR through age 22, and 37 players with 4+.

   The career averages are about the same as in the 23-25 breakdown — 56.6 and 86.5 — even though the age 23-25 averages are much closer, 18.2 and 20.0.

   In other words, there’s a correlation between 23-25 and career, and a correlation between 23-25 and 22-and-under — but the strongest correlation may be 22-and-under and career, at least for HOF WAR levels.

   Of the 27 players in this group who had less than 3 WAR through age 22, only Mike Schmidt went on to surpass 70 career WAR.

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   1. Doug Post authorMarch 1, 2013 at 11:56 am

      Thanks John.

      I agree the younger a player starts making positive contributions, the longer and better his career is likely to be. I remember a piece Bill James did comparing two groups with similar rookie seasons. One group was 21 year-old rookies, and the other group was 22 year-olds. The first group got 50% more career value (probably value was runs created, but I can’t recall exactly).

      So, in addition to Trout and Harper, the guys to really watch may be those in the last list.

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3. Ed March 5, 2013 at 12:37 pm

   Some interesting news…I’ll post it here since it’s a “coming attraction”. Joe Posnanski spoke with Sean Foreman of Baseball Reference at the recent Sloan Conference on Sports Analytics. Sean says he plans on getting together with the folks at Fangraphs to hammer out a consistent replacement value for WAR (I think BR uses .320 and Fangraphs uses .250). Tom Tango and others may be involved as well.

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   1. Doug Post authorMarch 5, 2013 at 2:04 pm

      Good idea.

      .250 seems way too low. You don’t have to be playing like the ’62 Mets before you lose your spot in the lineup.

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