Circle of Great 1957 Ballot

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This post is for voting and discussion in the thirteenth round of balloting for the Circle of Greats. This round adds those players born in 1957 (and a couple of special guests). Rules and lists are after the jump.

As always, each ballot, if it is to be counted, must include three and only three eligible players. The one player who appears on the most ballots cast in the round is inducted into the Circle of Greats. Players who fail to win induction but appear on half or more of the ballots that are cast win four future rounds of ballot eligibility. Players who appear on 25% or more of the ballots, but less than 50%, earn two years of extended eligibility. Any other player in the top 9 (including ties) in ballot appearances, or who appears on at least 10% of the ballots, wins one additional round of ballot eligibility.

All voting for this round closes at 11:00 PM EDT on Friday, March 29, while changes to previously cast ballots are allowed until 11:00 PM EDT Wednesday, March 27.

If you’d like to follow the vote tally, and/or check to make sure I’ve recorded your vote correctly, you can see my ballot-counting spreadsheet for this round here: 1957 COG Vote Tally . I’ll be updating the spreadsheet periodically with the latest votes. Initially, there is a row for every voter who has cast a ballot in any of the past rounds, but new voters are entirely welcome — new voters will be added to the spreadsheet as their ballots are submitted. Also initially, there is a column for each of the holdover players; additional player columns from the new born-in-1957 group will be added as votes are cast for them.

Back when we first started the Circle of Greats, we debated whether to include some players on the ballot even if they fell short of the Hall of Fame’s 10-seasons-of-play minimum for getting on the baseball writers’ ballot for induction. After discussion, the rule was set at either 10 seasons in the majors or, for those with fewer than ten seasons, at least 20 career Wins Above Replacement (using baseball-reference.com’s version of WAR). This round, Teddy Higuera qualifies despite pitching in only nine seasons in the majors because baseball-reference has him at a career WAR of 28.9 (it would have been over 30 if he had retired in 1991 after seven seasons instead of trying to come back after missing the 1992 season). Also, in re-checking the numbers I realize that two guys from previous-round birth years also should have been on a previous ballot under the 20 WAR rule: Orlando (El Duque) Hernandez and Shane Mack. So all three of these guys are being included in the eligible list this round. I think it’s pretty unlikely any of these guys will garner enormous support. But it was agreed to allow them to be eligible, they are at least as qualified as many who have previously appeared as eligible — and so they are here.

Choose your three players from the lists below of eligible players. The 13 current holdovers are listed in order of the number of future rounds (including this one) through which they are assured eligibility, and alphabetically when the future eligibility number is the same. The new group of 1957 birth-year guys are listed below in order of the number of seasons each played in the majors, and alphabetically among players with the same number of seasons played.

Holdovers:
Tom Glavine (eligibility guaranteed for 6 rounds)
Tony Gwynn (eligibility guaranteed for 6 rounds)
John Smoltz (eligibility guaranteed for 6 rounds)
Barry Larkin (eligibility guaranteed for 5 rounds)
Craig Biggio (eligibility guaranteed for 4 rounds)
Larry Walker (eligibility guaranteed for 4 rounds)
Roberto Alomar (eligibility guaranteed for 3 rounds)
Tim Raines (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Ryne Sandberg (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Alan Trammell (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Kevin Brown (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Kenny Lofton(eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Edgar Martinez (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)

Everyday Players (born in 1957, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Lou Whitaker
Alfredo Griffin
Tony Pena
Brett Butler
Kirk Gibson
Tim Wallach
Carney Lansford
Danny Heep
Alex Trevino
Glenn Hubbard
Ed Romero
Max Venable
Steve Balboni
Tim Flannery
Damaso Garcia
Dan Gladden
Steve Lake
John Moses
Greg Brock
Bob Dernier
Leon Durham
Bob Horner
Clint Hurdle
Rick Leach
Johnny Ray
Willie Upshaw

Pitchers (born in 1957, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Jesse Orosco
Lee Smith
Tom Candiotti
Doug Jones
Dave Stewart
Dave Stieb
Buddy Black
Bob Ojeda
Don Robinson
Steve Bedrosian
Mike Boddicker
Tony Fossas
Jerry Gleaton
Craig Lefferts
Dave Schmidt
Steve Trout
Pascual Perez
David Palmer
Teddy Higuera

Also eligible this round:
Orlando Hernandez
Shane Mack

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Mike

11 years ago

Gwynn
Biggio
Walker

Mr. Dave

11 years ago

Smoltz, Alomar and Gwynn.

Arsen

11 years ago

Larkin, Trammell, Smoltz

Chris C

11 years ago

Biggio, Raines, Alomar

Hartvig

11 years ago

Alan Trammell Lou Whitaker Ryne Sandberg I was sorely temped to give Kirk Gibson the last spot in honor of those wonderful Tigers teams of the 80’s but there are just too many people that I feel belong and too few votes to go around. Sandberg is my only concession to anything resembling “strategic” voting this round. In my rankings, Larkin is a hairs-breadth ahead of Sandberg, but he has 5 years eligibility accrued vs. 2 for Sandberg. Glavine is somewhere in the mix as well. I think both Martinez & Lofton belong in the COG but for this round… Read more »

Author

birtelcom

11 years ago

Reply to Hartvig

The first double-play combo ballot. Over the 14 consecutive seasons that Trammell and Whitaker were the primary SS and 2B for the Tigers, the guys who were the main starting first basemen they were throwing to, for at least one full season, were: Jason Thompson, Richie Hebner, Enos Cabell, Dave Bergman, Darrell Evans, Ray Knight and Cecil Fielder.

Jeff Hill

11 years ago

Gwynn, Raines, Larkin

David Horwich

11 years ago

Larkin, Alomar, Raines

Tom

11 years ago

Martinez, Walker, Glavine

opal611

11 years ago

For the 1957 election, I’m voting for:
-Tony Gwynn
-Tom Glavine
-Ryne Sandberg

Other top candidates I considered highly (and/or will consider in future rounds):
-Biggio (Hopefully only temporarily off ballot)
-Alomar (Hopefully only temporariliy off ballot)
-Martinez (Hopefully only temporarily off ballot)
-Smoltz
-Walker
-Trammell
-Larkin
-Raines
-Lofton
-Brown
-Whitaker

Sentimental favorite former Brewers:
–Teddy Higuera
-Jesse Orosco
-Doug Jones

Voomo Zanzibar

11 years ago

I wouldn’t be surprised if this ended in a 10-way tie for 1st.

Voomo Zanzibar

11 years ago

Amazing how similar some of Trammell and Whitaker’s stats are.
They are within 4 hits of one another.
And they both have 77 Rfield.

koma

11 years ago

Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Craig Biggio

Nick Pain

11 years ago

Whitaker, Raines, Gwynn

latefortheparty

11 years ago

Larry Walker
Tom Glavine
Lou Whitaker

11 years ago

Larry Walker, Craig Biggio, Barry Larkin

This is the former qx, I was in need of a name change

Dr. Doom

11 years ago

I’m absolutely set on voting for Walker. But as for my next two spots, I have Brown, Trammell, Larkin, and Sandberg in just about an absolute tie. So I’m not really sure how to go. I think I’m gonna go with Brown (because his eligibility is going to run out if people don’t vote for him) and Larkin (because he’s my favorite non-Brewer ever). So to recap:

Larry Walker
Kevin Brown
Barry Larkin

Jeff Harris

11 years ago

My first (and probably only) homer vote:

Trammell, Sweet Lou Whitaker, Smoltz (could’ve been a Tiger)

Hartvig

11 years ago

Reply to Jeff Harris

I completely blanked about Smoltz!

One of the all-time cost/benefit trades in history. Alexander did everything that the Tiger’s could have hoped for and then some during the regular season. The wheels fell off in the playoffs but those things happen in short series. And for a great as Smoltz turned out to be, he probably wouldn’t have seen post-season play with Detroit unless he hung around until 2006.

Gary Bateman

11 years ago

Alomar, Gwynn, Raines

J.R. Lebert

11 years ago

Gwynn, Raines, Biggio.

brp

11 years ago

Larry Walker (guy who should win this round vote)
Lou Whitaker (most deserving new player vote)
Ryne Sandberg (Cubs fan vote)

11 years ago

Holy cow this is difficult. I’m going to get my vote in now and then think on it some more over the week.

Larkin
Whitaker
Trammell

Editor

Bryan O'Connor

11 years ago

Career Wins Above Average, excluding negative seasons:

Walker 48.6
Larkin 45.5
Trammell 45.1
Brown 43.2
Whitaker 43.1
Glavine 42.2
Martinez 41.6
Smoltz 40.2
Lofton 39.5
Sandberg 39.1
Alomar 37.3
Raines 37.2
Gwynn 36.8
Biggio 36.7

I’m excited to be able to vote for Larkin this time, while still supporting my two primary causes. Although, if I were allowed, I might replace Larkin with Sweet Alan Tramaker.

Walker, Larkin, Brown

mosc

11 years ago

I think Larkin was a better player than the detroit combo. I know that’s not a popular opinion but Larkin was a freak of an athlete and had no weaknesses in the profession of Baseball. He had some bad luck with injuries, but still accumulated a decent length career. I think a lot of players on this ballot deserve to get in, but for middle infielders we have left, I think Larkin was a step above. A step faster, too. Gwynn was something special. He did not have power and didn’t do much OB-in’ but exceptional skills stand the test… Read more »

Editor

Bryan O'Connor

11 years ago

Reply to mosc

Agreed on Larkin over Trammell, but it’s by a hair. WAR tells us they were practically the same player. Raw stats tell us Larkin hit a little more and was a better baserunner, but lagged just behind Trammell in defense. I’d break the tie by stripping back some of the park adjustments and celebrating that Larkin hit more doubles and homers and stole more bases, even if his ballpark and era helped him out a bit.

mosc

11 years ago

Reply to Bryan O'Connor

In my mind it’s not as close. I see Trammel as more above average for a long period of time . Larkin’s WAA is probably comparable only due to injury. If he had Trammel’s health, he would have a more substantial peak. When they were on the field (granted, getting there is most of the battle) Larkin was a step better. Whitaker never had the impressive arm strength shown by so many shortstops in that era. I also think I missed Lou’s real peak of 34-38 years old (91-95): .287/.389/.478/.868 in 2249 PA. I remember more the younger slick fielding… Read more »

--bill

11 years ago

Glavine, Biggio, Walker

Dr. Remulak

11 years ago

Gwynn, Smoltz, Biggio.

11 years ago

You guys are slowly turning me to Walker, just not quite there yet.

Larkin, Glavine, Whitaker

mosc

11 years ago

Reply to PP

Look at the road splits. Look at Bichette. Don’t give in.

11 years ago

Reply to mosc

I agree on the splits, it’s the reason I haven’t voted for him. I still may not pull the trigger. I see Molitor and Murray are up next year so he’s definitely out then (he won’t replace Larkin or Glavine). Yount comes after that. Smith, Carter & Eckersley after that. So in my case it seems unlikely for at least the next 3.

Editor

John Autin

11 years ago

Reply to mosc

By all means, do look at Bichette. You’re bound to recognize how vastly superior were Walker’s numbers while with Colorado: – Bichette, .316 BA, .352 OBP, .892 OPS – Walker, .334 BA, .426 OBP, 1.044 OPS In Colorado: – Bichette, .396 OBP, 1.046 OPS (1993-99) – Walker, .464 OBP, 1.179 OPS (1995-2004) Away, while with Colorado: – Bichette, .309 OBP, .736 OPS (1993-99) – Walker, .385 OBP, .899 OPS (1995-2004) Offensive WAR per 162 games: – Bichette, 2.1 oWAR/162 – Walker, 6.1 oWAR/162 Now, I don’t care if anyone votes for Walker or not. I don’t know if I’ll vote… Read more »

11 years ago

Reply to John Autin

I checked out all those players about a month ago: Burks, Bichette, Castilla, Galarraga, even Helton and Holliday. As for Bichette, I never thought he and Walker were equivalent players anyway, but each one of those guys I mentioned has an equivalent upsurge at Coors. So if there’s any doubt in my mind, considering the talent on these lists, it’s easy to ignore someone who may have a case, even a strong one despite the advantageous conditions they played in.

mosc

11 years ago

Reply to John Autin

The point of Bichette is to show you you can expect a serious OPS swing for that type of hitter to the tune of 300 points which is not sufficiently reflected in RBAT, and because of that WAR. If you assume at least one of those rockies sluggers was equally good on the road and at home, pick any one, then you toss the inflation of their stats based on that formula, you are gunna take another 10WAR off of Walker. I’d also take away another 5 WAR from him due to inflated values on the defense of a career… Read more »

11 years ago

Reply to mosc

But Rbat doesn’t really rate Bichette. From 1996-1999 he bats .313, averages 28 HRs, 39 2Bs, 128 RBI and 99 Runs but averages only 6 Rbat per year. Do you think Bichette’s Rbat should be much lower? Negative?

mosc

11 years ago

Reply to mosc

RJ, it breaks the scale. The correction is a fixed subtraction per at bat. The subtraction is not valid as it should scale with the skill of the player. Because of this, if you put a good fly ball hitter like Walker there, the correction is not holding up.

Jeff Hill

11 years ago

Reply to mosc

Here here…don’t be fooled by Coors field and all it’s advantages it gives.

The Diamond King

11 years ago

Walker, Gwynn and Smoltz.

Abbott

11 years ago

Biggio, Glavine, Gwynn

aweb

11 years ago

Glavine, Walker, Trammell.

Pretty fine hairs to split with this group, with Whitaker joining the “backlog”. I’ve changed between this group a few times already, when I participate.

11 years ago

Reply to aweb

By WAR at least, Whitaker is a touch ahead of our current pack of infielders and the only player on the ballot with 70 WAR, save Tom Glavine (whose batting WAR pushes him over 70). But as you say, it’s mostly splitting hairs.

Voomo Zanzibar

11 years ago

In the defensive statistics (which i’m coming around to appreciating because of the discussions on this site), is the value of the extra bases that a corner outfielder with good range saves part of the calculations?

Regarding the discussion of Larry Walker… part of the ‘Coors Effect’ should be an appreciation of outfielders who get it done out there in the vast high tundra.

bstar

11 years ago