This post is for voting and discussion in the twenty-second round of balloting for the Circle of Greats. This round adds those players born in 1948. Rules and lists are after the jump.
The new group joins the holdovers from previous rounds to comprise the full group eligible to receive your votes this round. The new group of 1948-born players must, as always, have played at least 10 seasons in the major leagues or generated at least 20 Wins Above Replacement (“WAR”, as calculated by baseball-reference.com, and for this purpose meaning 20 total WAR for everyday players and 20 pitching WAR for pitchers).
Each submitted ballot, if it is to be counted, must include three and only three eligible players. The one player who appears on the most ballots cast in the round is inducted into the Circle of Greats. Players who fail to win induction but appear on half or more of the ballots that are cast win four added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Players who appear on 25% or more of the ballots cast, but less than 50%, earn two added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Any other player in the top 9 (including ties) in ballot appearances, or who appears on at least 10% of the ballots, wins one additional round of ballot eligibility.
All voting for this round closes at 11:00 PM EDT on Wednesday, July 24, while changes to previously cast ballots are allowed until 11:00 PM EDT Monday, July 22.
If you’d like to follow the vote tally, and/or check to make sure I’ve recorded your vote correctly, you can see my ballot-counting spreadsheet for this round here: 1948 COG Vote Tally . I’ll be updating the spreadsheet periodically with the latest votes. Initially, there is a row in the spreadsheet for every voter who has cast a ballot in any of the past rounds, but new voters are entirely welcome — new voters will be added to the spreadsheet as their ballots are submitted. Also initially, there is a column for each of the holdover players; additional player columns from the new born-in-1948 group will be added to the spreadsheet as votes are cast for them.
Choose your three players from the lists below of eligible players. The twelve current holdovers are listed in order of the number of future rounds (including this one) through which they are assured eligibility, and alphabetically when the future eligibility number is the same. The new group of 1948 birth-year guys are listed below in order of the number of seasons each played in the majors, and alphabetically among players with the same number of seasons played.
Holdovers:
Lou Whitaker (eligibility guaranteed for 9 rounds)
John Smoltz (eligibility guaranteed for 7 rounds)
Alan Trammell (eligibility guaranteed for 7 rounds)
Craig Biggio (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Bobby Grich (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Edgar Martinez (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Roberto Alomar (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Kenny Lofton (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Eddie Murray (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Rick Reuschel (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Ryne Sandberg (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Ted Simmons (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Dave Winfield (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Everyday Players (born in 1948, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Dave Concepcion
Steve Garvey
George Foster
Bill Russell
Ron Cey
Chris Chambliss
Toby Harrah
Mike Jorgensen
Buck Martinez
Johnny Grubb
Dave Kingman
Lee Lacy
Steve Braun
Cesar Geronimo
Rick Miller
Mickey Rivers
Steve Yeager
Willie Montanez
John Ellis
Dave Cash
Darrel Chaney
Bill North
Von Joshua
Carlos May
Dave Rader
Eric Soderholm
Pitchers (born in 1948, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Charlie Hough
Bill Campbell
John Curtis
Ken Brett
Tom Griffin
Dave LaRoche
Reggie Cleveland
Jim Barr
Randy Moffitt
Aurelio Lopez
Doc Medich
Bill Bonham
Lerrin LaGrow
Gary Nolan
Wayne Twitchell
Trammell, Sandberg, Martinez
Just saw Phil’s #9.
Mine is Edgar too, not Buck even though he’s an old favorite
Smoltz
Biggio
Winfield
One scheduling note: After this round ends next Wednesday night and the results are announced, the COG will go on a two-week hiatus as yours truly travels briefly off the grid. But the Circle of Greats voting will return in mid-August, and I hope you will, too.
Sorry to see the hiatus (especially with some exciting rounds featuring Johnny Bench, Nolan Ryan, Carlton Fisk, and Reggie Jackson coming up in the next two rounds), but I hope you enjoy your hiatus. This will likely be a case, I think, of absence making the heart grow fonder!
Edgar Martinez, Bobby Grich, Lou Whitaker
Whitaker trammelll murray
Whitaker, Trammell, Smoltz
Grich, Alomar, Lofton
Three-fourths of the famous Dodgers infield come onto the ballot at the same time (plus Yeager)…Favourite ’70s flake on the list: Mick the Quick. Vote: Alomar, Winfield, Martinez.
Bill Russell: 18 seasons in the majors, all with 190+ PAs, and NEVER had an OPS+ higher than 99.
Longtime teammate Ron Cey was basically the opposite. 17 seasons in the majors and had an OPS+ above 100 in 15 of them. The only exceptions were 1971 (only 2 PAs) and 1985 (94 OPS+).
I found only one other player with a career nearly as long as Russell’s with no seasons of 100 OPS+ and 190 PA every season:
-Larry Bowa, 16 seasons in the majors, OPS+ high of 94.
@19/ED,
Royce Clayton: 17 years/2108 games in MLB, and NEVER had an OPS+ higher than 98 (only twice higher than 84; Russell had 7 such years).
I checked other good-field, no-hit shortstops, such as Luis Aparicio, Ozzie Smith, Omar Vizquel, Phil Rizzuto and Rabbit Maranville; all had at least one season with an OPS+ better than 100 (Ozzie had four).
Don Kessinger, George McBride and Dick Schofield also never exceeded 99 OPS+. In 18 years Mark Belanger did it once in 18 years with a single season of 100. Alfredo Griffin did it once in 18 seasons but in a season with 6 PA.
Jose Vizcaino had 18 seasons with a high OPS+ (twice) of only 90. He was at 78 or lower in 13 of those 18 seasons. Career was 76 OPS+ in almost 6000 PAs, but somehow compiled 7.1 WAR, 4.7 on defense.
Leo Durocher had almost the same PA as Vizcaino in 17 seasons, although he had fewer than 20 games in 4 of those 17 seasons. His highest OPS+ (twice) was only 82. Career was 66 OPS+ with 5.1 WAR, but 11.4 WAR on defense.
Um, Edgar, that is.
Craig Biggio, Edgar Martinez, Eddie Murray
So I’m guessing this is one of the weakest new classes we’ll have for quite a while?
A lot of interesting names (Cey, Garvey, Foster, Concepcion, Harrah) but no obvious COG-worthy standouts.
Whitaker, Trammell, Edgar Martinez. ( in case there is some other Martinez eligible this year. Hurts not to vote for the penguin
Lou Whitaker, John Smoltz, Craig Biggio
Edgar Martinez, Reuschel, Murray
Whitaker, Trammell, Sandberg
You picked an interesting round to join in the voting, ee, welcome aboard.
Lofton, Biggio, Smoltz
Whitaker, Grich, Lofton
Charlie Hough:
– 1 start by the age of 30
– Dodgers career (age 22 to 31): 799.2 IP, 16 starts, 3.0 WAR
– Thereafter (age 31 to 46): 3001.2 IP, 424 starts, 36.5 WAR
Bobby Grich, Lou Whitaker, Alan Trammell
Wins Above Average, excluding negative seasons:
Trammell 44.7
Grich 43.6
Whitaker 42.7
Martinez 41.3
Reuschel 40.6
Smoltz 40.1
Lofton 39.3
Sandberg 38.8
Alomar 36.8
Biggio 36.3
Murray 34.9
Winfield 31.7
Simmons 28.5
Cey 28.3
Foster 24.6
Trammell, Edgar, Smoltz.
Best player, best hitter, best pitcher.
Smoltz, Ryno, Biggio
Whitaker, Trammell, Smoltz.
I appreciated Edgar, but I’m afraid I still can’t get my head around the idea of treating a DH as a full player, and after forty years, I suppose the likelihood I will grow more flexible with age is declining as I do.
Out of curiosity, how do you feel about relief pitchers? I guess I view relief pitchers and DHs in a pretty similar way: on the one hand, they’re not contributing nearly as much as the other players. On the other hand, they don’t necessarily choose how they’re going to be used; all they can do is go where the manager puts them in the lineup, and do their best. Do you see these as similar, or are they completely different?
Good question, Doom! – and one I’ve never asked myself in this context, so I have to scramble defensively for an answer – I may not give a good one. I agree there are similarities and, in fact, I do have a strong prejudice against RPs as Hall candidates, though not in principle, only in terms of the sorts of metrics that could cross the threshold. (Mariano is the first 100% RP whom I really feel comfortable supporting for the Hall, though I do have special appreciation for effective crossovers like Wilhelm, Eck, Wood, Smoltz.)
Here’s two-part answer: 1) A quality fireman or closer is often a pitcher whose strengths are seen as maximized in a relief role, without a necessary corollary that there is a weakness being minimized. A specialized DH, like a fine late-inning defensive replacement player, is generally someone whose absence from the defense/offense reflects a weakness. That may be why, in principle, I’d have trouble supporting even a .400 DH for the Hall. 2) A strong RP’s effectiveness in his role is strengthened by his specialization, which is one reason for dividing the modern staff into SPs and RPs. I’ve never heard an argument that a DH’s hitting is enhanced by DH specialization (except, perhaps, that The Big Hurt was distracted by fielding duties, which takes us back to point 1).
Now I’m going to spend the rest of the day trying to think up better answers (excluding the real one: I’m old and inflexible).
Haha. Thanks. I guess I have my counterarguments, but that’s not important right now. Thanks for putting in the effort to answer.
I disagree. Even the best, most impactful reliever in recent memory – Mo, for example – has fewer than 300 batters faced in most of his seasons. A full-time DH will log about 600 PAs. Even if he never sets foot on the field, the DH is involved in twice as much as a relief pitcher.
Also, regarding your first point- aren’t a lot of relievers failed starters who are put in the pen to hide a weakness, such as erratic control or a lack of secondary pitches? With regard to #2, wouldn’t Edgar or Big Papi benefit from knowing they will very likely not have to even bring a glove to spring training? Rather than focusing 75% on batting they can focus 99%. That has to have some impact.
In my opinion – there’s nobody in the game less valuable than a relief pitcher (as they are used today).
I think your first point is a good argument, brp. It would tend to push me away from the RP-in-Hall camp more than towards the DH-in-Hall position. But I do think it needs rethinking.
Your initial analogy seems to ignore two matters: the normal metrics of “involvement” by regulars vs. pitchers, and the unequal form of involvement in defensive vs. offensive innings.
A top starting pitcher (I’m eyeballing CC) will face about 900 batters per year, pitching to all *and* playing a normal fielder’s role. So a top closer may put in about 1/3 of that total over the course of a season (that figure would be much higher for many top relievers pre-1990, but I’m using Mo as my base). For pitchers, defense is virtutally the total of their game value so that’s a 1/3 level of involvement, SP/RP. (Note that when pitchers face a batter, they match up in two roles; the batter and other fielders each play one role. [Catchers are special.])
I don’t think there’s any way to argue that a DH participates at a rate of 2/3 a normal regular (picking up on your phrasing of the comparison with RPs: “the DH is involved in twice as much as a relief pitcher”), and it’s possible to argue that a DH’s involvement is less than 1/3 a regular’s. A normal regular plays 50% of the entire game on defense, and perhaps 75% of his individual involvement in a game is on defense (counterargument: count only the plays a regular makes in the field, not total time poised to make a play). Using these figures a DH has 1/4 the involvement of a regular. (These figures all have scientific authority because I have scientifically designed them so I could win this argument.)
I think my real general point is just that it would be hard to argue this on the basis some metric of involvement comparing DH and RP.
Regarding your second point, I think lots of RPs are in the bullpen because they’re not great SPs, but that HoF-candidate types are generally not of that sort. In some cases, like Mo’s, we really don’t have enough evidence to make an assessment. But your point is valid enough that when I wrote my initial comment, I was bothered by the thought and (dishonestly) chose to ignore it.
As for Edgar & Co. being better hitters because they don’t have to field: 1) I have no idea whether there is any way to test that notion; 2) If the argument suggests they would not have been great hitters before ’73 because their fielding duties would have eroded their hitting, then I’d have problems letting them into the HoF just because the DH rule – designed to increase fan interest – had the side effect of making some problematic players look like stars. Perhaps they belong in the AL HoF. (I’m an NL fan and happy to compromise.)
I share your skepticism of a DH being a Hall of Famer, epm.
A question to those who disagree: How much WAR would Edgar Martinez have if he had played in the National League? I’d say maybe half his career total, because he couldn’t play the field every day.
Same problem with Ortiz. How does he accumulate that much career value without the DH to save him?
It’s also unfair to those who finished their careers in the National League and didn’t have the DH option. How much more WAR would Chipper Jones have if he could have DH’ed the last five years of his career?
Relief pitchers don’t share this NL-no/AL-yes problem.
And there are only five relievers in the Hall anyway, with two of them very questionable choices (Sutter, Fingers).
57/brq,
I agree with you on the relative value of DHs vs. relievers.
For me, a DH has to hit just a bit better than a bad-fielding first baseman, or somewhat better than a bad-fielding corner outfielder, to have about the same value.
Whereas, for a relief pitcher… A closer pitches 60-80 innings a year (I used Rivera as a model). A top starter, not missing a turn, pitches 210-240 innings a year.
I know about “leverage”, or the higher value of those innings that a closer pitches compared to a starter, but there’s _no way_ those innings can be leveraged enough to make up for the enormous disparity in innings pitched.
Now, this was less true in the “fireman” relief roles of the 60s/70s, when guys like Dick Radatz or John Hiller would pitch 120-150 innings a year. Even so, that was still only about half of the league leaders in IP.
A closer just can’t provide as much value as a starter, and I can’t take a closer seriously as a Cy Young or MVP candidate, despite 2003, 1992, 1989, 1987, etc…
@59 & 60, I generally agree with you guys but wanted to nitpick a little 🙂 My point wasn’t to argue for DHs to be in the HOF or COG necessarily, just to say that an argument could be made that they’re more valuable than relief pitchers even though they have limited involvement in the game. Also the leverage concept is a bit irksome to me; I get the idea but a run allowed in the 2nd inning isn’t that much different than the 8th… WPA will argue against that of course, but anyway.
After all this, I’m not voting for a DH or a RP, though I did think about Smoltz (because he proved he could start) and Martinez. I vote for:
Trammell
Grich
Lofton… I’ve come around on Lofton a lot.
Odd way to characterize Smoltz, brp – he won over 200 games as a starter (and was 13-4 as a postseason starter).
But maybe you mean the 50 starts he won after his 150-save career interruption.
Agreed, epm, I’ve always said the reverse about Smoltz; i.e., he was a great starter who “proved” he could close.
I think we assume almost all elite starters would also be elite closers, they’re just too valuable to limit them to under 100 innings.
Sure, I might be discounting the mental aspect of closing a tad bit, and there’s also the part about pitching on consecutive days/whenever needed instead of having a regular every-fifth-day schedule, but talent is talent, and guys like Maddux and Pedro were going to be outstanding in any possible role.
I’ve always wondered about Rivera. Obviously, he got so good as a closer they never would have considered it, but what if he would have been moved back to a starting role? I mean, he only got one chance, and that was for 10 starts in 1995. Could he have hacked it as a starter on “one pitch”?
Can we be more educated on here than to say “one pitch” please? His cutter has more movement than some guy’s sliders and he regularly throws a 4sfb with no break, particularly against Righties (I’d say he more often throws the 4 seamer against righties than the cutter). They’re both fastballs and the velocities are close (the 4sfb sits 1-3mph faster mattering on how he’s feeling) but they are two very distinct pitches and the difference between the two pitches is a key to his success against righties and lefties, throughout his relief career.
…and since I’m bored I’ll expand
He has occasionally, especially in the past 5 years or so, used a 2sfb inside against right handed hitters. It’s movement is small and it’s velocity is slightly lower than his cutter. It’s not that good a pitch. I’ve seen him mostly use it to try and induce a double play against a right handed batter. Probably less than 5% of his pitch breakdown.
I’m also a subscriber to the Carlton slider = Rivera cutter line of thinking. They are wide spinning pitches (no red dot) that look a lot like a 4sfb and move in a slider-like fashion but without the graphic hook. The lack of flatness (sometimes called “rise”) compared to a 4sfb gives the pitch just as much of a drop in plane to the hitter as it does a break. It is also thrown very hard and it’s fastball like velocity without fastball like rise is the hallmark. Carlton called it a ‘slider’ and lacked Rivera’s ‘cutter’ velocity but the pitch is similar and both paired it extremely effectively with a 4sfb.
Carlton was not a 2-pitch pitcher like Rivera though, so I doubt that Rivera would match that kind of success as a starter. The usual MO for 2-pitch starters is that they can have success but not for long. Maybe Rivera would have developed a bender, who knows. More likely, he’d have had a more CJ Wilson-esque career path. Probably better he stayed in the pen.
That said, I think Rivera’s cutter is a superior pitch to Carlton’s slider but I’m not sure Rivera ever had the arm strength to throw it for 250+ innings like Carlton did so many times year in and year out. Maybe Mo’s velocity with it would have dropped into more typical slider ranges (Carlton’s slider was peppy though, compared to average sliders).
In closing, clearly 2 pitches not one. But yeah, still not going to say he would be a HOF starter. Carlton and CJ Wilson even both had the lefty thing going for em too, that helps.
@mosc: Sorry, didn’t mean to be vague. I put “one pitch” in quotations because I know that he utilizes a 4-seamer even though the media usually calls him a “one pitch pitcher.” Still, most of his success has come from the cutter/4 seam combo (with a much higher percentage of cutters), and that might not have been enough as a starter. Of course, had he been moved back to the rotation, he’d have likely worked on adding pitches; it’s not like a pitcher’s arsenal is a static thing that never changes. Maybe he’d have gone the Clemens route and added a split-finger.
One problem with the anti-DH sentiment is you penalize a guy for being a team player. I remember when Giambi signed as a free agent with the NYY – he was adamant that he didn’t want to be a DH. He wanted to help the team in the field too. So he forced his team to put a slightly superior fielder(Nick Johnson) at DH while he hurt them defensively. I’m sure Edgar Martinez could have complained enough to play (poorly) in the field too. It would have hurt the Mariner’s win totals each year but he’d became a no-brainer for the HOF and COG. Somebody has to DH! Accept it as part of the game.
Interesting argument, Chris. It certainly works in terms of putting team before self, but I’m not sure willingness to relieve a team of one’s inferior fielding is a persuasive addition to a HoF argument.
As for accepting the DH, I’ve come around to a willingness to consider it post-mortem.
So, I can’t reply to everyone, but I do have a few thoughts.
1. Are AL pitchers post-1973 ALSO one-way players? I mean, they didn’t hit, and that’s half of the game. I don’t really see how the argument “but their main job is to pitch” has any relevance: Edgar Martinez’s “main job” was to hit. It’s what he was hired for. So that’s pretty much moot.
2. I just don’t see how a player can be punished for playing a position he had no control over needing to exist. We don’t punish Randy Johnson for being a terrible hitter, even though it WAS part of his job to hit. So I don’t understand why we would punish a DH for playing his position.
3. Someone asked what Edgar’s WAR would be as a 3B, instead of a DH. Well, I would guess that full-time 3B would be about 3 runs/year added to his WAR. But the DH adjustment is about -13 runs/year. So I would guess that you could add about 152 Rpos to his total. And since he was a better-than-average fielder at third (why do people always forget this? It boggles my mind), probably another 2 runs/year, the last ten years of his career. So I would estimate that Edgar Martinez probably lost about 15-18 WAR by playing DH. The penalty has already been assessed. Why ask him to take a second one? I thought we went over that kind of thinking with Larry Walker…
4. I don’t particularly care for the DH rule. But there it is. I mean, on the one hand, I guess it’s silly to watch 8 “professional hitters” in an NL game… and then watch a pitcher who, most of the time, doesn’t do much better than I would. What’s so fun about that? So I get why the DH should exist. But either way, the rule is there. And (I know I said this already, but) I just don’t see how you can punish a guy for playing the position that he was assigned to play.
5. Players as a DH tend to hit worse than had they played the field. Consider about Edgar’s career .312/.418/.515 line, and think of how truly terrifying his line would be, even improved just, say, 2% or 3%.
6. There’s the classic Bill James line about focusing on what players CAN’T do, instead of what they CAN. How bad could Edgar Martinez have been in the field, really? Let’s say he was as bad as Miguel Cabrera at third. Well, he basically HIT like Miguel Cabrera (or maybe a poor man’s Miguel Cabrera). Is anyone here going to argue that Miguel Cabrera has no HOF case, simply because he’s a bad fielder? I doubt it. Ralph Kiner was a bad fielder. Ted Williams was a bad fielder. Mike Piazza was a bad fielder. Being a bad fielder (which, again, Martinez wasn’t; he just wasn’t asked to play the field) is not a point of exclusion from the Hall of Fame, IF you have the offense to justify it. If Edgar Martinez didn’t have that, then the bar for a Hall of Famer is high, indeed.
7. I wouldn’t ever punish a player for just playing a position. I WOULD punish a player for not having impact on the results of games. Eric Gagne is not a Hall of Famer, because he didn’t have enough impact. Dennis Eckersley did. Mariano Rivera did. And Edgar Martinez did. That being said, I have him as #4 on my list as of this ballot, and I’m unlikely to vote for him for the CoG. But I think that he’s probably over the bar for the Hall of Fame.
Those are some thoughts, I guess. Sorry for the long post.
Doom, some replies to your points:
1. AL pitchers would have hit without the DH rule, and Edgar would have had to field a position. I can’t see how Edgar could have played every day with his bad knees, so his WAR might be, what, 1/2 to 2/3 of what it is, maybe less?
2. Yes, Randy Johnson was a terrible hitter. But he only cost his team -2.2 WAR as a hitter, which is a negligible loss. I don’t think comparing pitchers as hitters to DH’s is an apt comparison.
3. Edgar was a good fielder when his knees weren’t shot. My guess if he played in the NL is that he would have been moved to 1B eventually, so he’s not going to get all those positional runs over at third that you were suggesting.
Speaking of positional adjustments, keep in mind that WAR gives 5 batting runs per full year of PA’s for the difficulty of DH’ing. That’s added to the positional adjustment. Since Edgar or Ortiz obviously adapted well to the DH, I have a hard time believing Martinez deserved all those extra positional runs.
4. “I mean, on the one hand, I guess it’s silly to watch 8 “professional hitters” in an NL game… and then watch a pitcher who, most of the time, doesn’t do much better than I would. What’s so fun about that?”
Well, there’s the stategy of the bunt/swing away. It also makes the NL game shorter, and you’ll never convince me that’s not a positive. Also, that’s the game we grew up playing, and the game I choose to watch. I detest AL ball, so there’s bias there, but imagine wandering by a softball field and seeing a game going on. Do you think the pitcher’s not hitting? It’s still how the game is played.
5. Again, Edgar already got 5 runs a year for DH’ing, so that 2 or 3% is already factored into his WAR. (and 5 runs a year is way more than 2-3%, so I think Edgar definitely benefited from the DH in this regard.)
6. It’s not a question of how bad a fielder he could have been, it’s a question of whether he would have been able to stay on the field on a regular basis. Ortiz could play 1B (very badly) and CAN still play every day, but I don’t think he’s a Hall of Famer, period. No one else is close.
Ortz is not a _horrible_ defensive first baseman, certainly not as bad as Frank Thomas was. Ortiz certainly isn’t good, but he has a decent arm and decent instincts – in the 2004 World Series, he made a throw to cut down a runner at third that the regular RS first baseman Kevin Millar probably wouldn’t have even attempted, because his arm was nowere as good.
No, the reason he doesn’t play first (except sometimes in interleague games), is because the risk of injury for him when playing first is just too great.
Frank Thomas – now there’s a player, like Giambi, who maybe should’ve been moved to DH for the good of the team, as someone suggested above with Giambi. OTOH, he really preferred playing first, said he was more comfortable as a hitter when doing that, and it was just easier for the team to accomodate him.
And ya know what – the stats bear him out. Playing first base, he was basically Lou Gehrig(.337/ .453/ .625), but just DHing, he was merely very good (275/ .394/ .505). He did nothing but DH his last four years, and had an MVP-type year in 2006, so he did adjust somewhat.
Fair or not, I judge Edgar a bit differently than most DH’s because I think he probably *could* have been an average fielder at 3B, and almost certainly above average at 1B. His early numbers there are quite good.
Compare that with, say, Travis Hafner, one of my favorite players, and maybe the AL’s best hitter from 2004 to 2006. Pronk was a bad defensive 1B in 2003, and that’s when he was *young*. I can only imagine how terrifyingly, Dick Stuart-ishly bad he would be nowadays as a 36 year old on coleslaw knees.
Oh, I was going to look up Hafner’s stats on BB-Ref, so I typed in “Pronk.” To my surprise, instead of going straight to his page, I got a disambiguation page, because there’s a player from the Dutch league named Jochem Pronk.
Now look, I don’t care if he hit .151 with no power in a marginal foreign league, someone NEEDS to sign this guy. The MLB needs a name like Jochem Pronk.
A long post, but a good one, Doc.
I actually didn’t forget that Edgar was ok at 3b, but I thought he was more or less average, not better. In any event I see the crucial difference here not being a matter of focusing on what a DH couldn’t do, it’s what he didn’t do that’s the problem. Treating a DH as a regular player is, for me, a little like giving credit for military service (without the same ethical factors) – we assume he’d have played at some norm in the field if he’d played, but, in fact, he didn’t play in the field at all, which is different from playing at the norm we expect. So, to say this in another way, my conceptual WAR DH adjustment is far larger than WAR’s adjustment – it’s not a second penalty, I just see things differently (from the time honored old fart point of view – the one that thinks pitchers batting makes a more interesting game). I don’t have any dispute with the WAR/OPS+ formulas for Coors Field in Walker’s case.
Your point about pitchers not batting is excellent, and always bothers me because of the complexity of thinking it through. I essentially used the “their main job is to pitch” ploy @60, and you’ve given that the response it probably deserves. So what do I have left to counter with? How about: All AL pitchers compete on a level playing field in that respect; until baseball moves to the unlimited substitution platoon system, DHs are not like the regulars with whom they compete in hitting, much less in fielding, where they don’t compete with their peers at all. (Best I can do.)
On your point #5, I don’t know whether what you write is true of DHs in general – in Edgar’s case, his OPS+ before/after (including through 1994 as before) is 135/153.
It is indeed unfair to deny someone of Martinez’s quality HoF consideration because he spent most of his career as a DH. But the fact is he simply wasn’t in the game the way other regulars were. I loved Edgar as a player and I was always frustrated that he was left simply to drop in on the game every few innings. But that’s what happened. I don’t think penalizing a player for playing a position is right, but I feel differently about penalizing a player for not playing any position. But I sure can’t deny that Edgar had a great impact on game results, and I think that among your generally strong arguments, that is the strongest.
Grich, Trammell, Sandberg. I’m stickin’ with the middle infield this round.
Edgar Martinez, Smoltz, Murray
Initial vote based solely on merit, for three holdovers:
1. Kenny Lofton (6.7 WAR/162 during 1992-99)
2. Bobby Grich (6.6 WAR/162 during 1972-83)
3. Alan Trammell (6.4 WAR/162 during 1980-90)
Here’s the ranking of the other HOF-caliber candidates:
4. Ryne Sandberg (6.2 WAR/162 during 1984-92)
5. Craig Biggio (5.8 WAR/162 during 1991-99)
6. Lou Whitaker (5.5 WAR/162 during 1979-93)
7. Eddie Murray (5.7 WAR/162 during 1978-86)
8. Rick Reuschel (5.5 WAR/162 during 1973-80)
9. Edgar Martínez (6.4 WAR/162 during 1995-2001)
10. George Foster (6.4 WAR/162 during 1975-80)
11. Ron Cey (5.8 WAR/162 during 1974-80)
12. Roberto Alomar (6.0 WAR/162 during 1996-2001)
13. John Smoltz (5.8 WAR/162 during 1995-99)
14. Ted Simmons (5.3 WAR/162 during 1972-80)
15. Dave Winfield (5.3 WAR/162 during 1976-84)
16. Toby Harrah (5.2 WAR/162 during 1975-82)
I tentatively agree with an opinion I have heard around HHS that the COG is comparable to creating an all-time All-Star team (or perhaps two or three of such teams by the time we’re all done). Therefore, in this, our 25th round, the 25th player on the first team needs to be either a 2B or pitcher (preferably with some relief experience). Look for the likes of Sandberg, Biggio, Whitaker, Alomar, or Smoltz in vote changes if nobody has a runaway win by the time this round nears its end.
Meanwhile, of this round’s “bubble boys,” I’d like to see at least Lofton, Sandberg, Murray, Reuschel, Foster, Cey, and Alomar not fall out of consideration, so they are all vote change strategy candidates.
Didn’t even realize that Grich is a 2B in fact — I thought of him as a 3B for some reason (he was before my time anyway).
Murray, Smoltz, Alomar
I seem to be a definite “long peak” guy…I love the WaaWL% stats on bbref – basically, would they have helped an average team, or hurt them (It’s just WAA translated to a different scale, I believe). I seem to have a comparative dislike for guys who hung around a long time between average and replacement (Biggio, Murray, Winfield, Hough)
Grich: I’m willing to trust the advanced stats that say he was great. WaaWL% say he helps an average team 16 years in a row, counting a very small 1971 season. Retired while still productive, another mental bonus point from me (not sure why, I guess it’s like a mini-version of war credit, which I also will likely factor in when the era arrives). I happily accept the stats when they say guys I actually remember were great despite a lack of gaudy offensive numbers (like my other picks), so I can’t decide to distrust them when they cover players I didn’t see much of.
Trammell: 14 straight above average-great years from 1980-1991.
Whitaker: 18 straight above average-very good years, all except his 1977 cup-of-coffee. It’s been noted before – his lack of any discernable great years makes it easy to forget all the good years. Likely the best career WAR among guys with no plausible single-season argument for an MVP award?
It is astounding that the Tigers could leverage a solid 14 years of very good middle infield play into only 2 playoff berths. I haven’t broken it down, but given the other talents on the team in that time frame, they must have been built like the modern Tigers (positional excellence and filler adding up to good/not great).
@33/awbe,
As for Grich retiring while still productive – he retired after the 1986 ALCS against the Red Sox, because he was very disappointed in his play in the series (.208/.269/.333, plus several bad plays in the field). I vaguely recall at the time there was a bit of controversy about it – perhaps an unfortunate choice of words? This wouldn’t be surprising, considering the heartbreaking nature of the Angels loss.
Grich probably would’ve been better at second for the Angels in 1987 than Mark McLemore, though not in 1988 (Johnny Ray).
I would guess Grich’s retirement was the second most extreme reaction of Angels’ players to that heartbreaking loss. All things considered, it was certainly better than the first most extreme (RIP Donny Moore)
aweb:
“..[Lou Whitaker has]..likely the best career WAR among guys with no plausible single-season argument for an MVP award”
Interesting thought, and I think you’re close to right, assuming you meant position players only.
I found two guys with higher WAR totals than Lou who may not have warranted the near-MVP they almost won. Wahoo Sam Crawford did place second in MVP voting in 1914 but was only eighth in the AL in WAR that year. The best WAR finish in the AL for Whitaker I can find is sixth in 1983.
Paul Molitor is another good comp. He, like Crawford, finished 2nd once in MVP voting (’93) but wasn’t even in the top ten in AL WAR that year. There isn’t one single 7+ WAR season among these three players.
Also, their WAR graphs are very similar-looking:
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?players=1002748,1013846,1009040
Re: “..[Lou Whitaker has]..likely the best career WAR among guys with no plausible single-season argument for an MVP award” — I made essentially this point in a post last November.
http://www.highheatstats.com/2012/11/the-most-consistently-good-player-ever-part-1/
One measure I used there: Whitaker had at least 3.0 WAR in 15 of his 16 years with 100+ games, but he never reached 7 WAR. I identified 15 others with similar consistency at reaching 3 WAR; all of them had multiple years over 7 WAR.
(And one of these days, I’m going to finish part two of that essay!)
So that’s why I had that weird feeling that I or someone else had brought this up before. 🙂
Smoltz, Biggio, Edgar Martinez
Reuschel, Sandberg, Lofton.
Edgar, Alomar, … why can’t there be a guy whose name sounds like “Poe”?
Oh well, make the third vote Murray.
Save that thought for the 1916 vote, when Preacher Roe shows up. Who knows – Robbie and Edgar may still be on the ballot.
Moe Berg shows up in the 1902 vote.
About a third of the votes (22 ballots) are in according to the sheet and, as predicted, it is a close one, with Trammell leading with 10 votes, followed by Smoltz and Whitaker with 9, and Edgar with 8. Reuschel, Simmons, and Winfield are in danger of falling off and none of the new blood (I thought Cey would get a few votes) have drawn any interest yet. Too bad I’ll be away on vacation (and mostly internet-free) when the results are announced.
Among the 13 holdovers on the ballot this round, the top four in career WAR according to B-Ref are Whitaker, Grich, Trammell and Reuschel. But the top four in career WAR according to Fangraphs are Smoltz, Murray, Reuschel and Grich. And the top four in career WARP at Baseball Prospectus are Winfield, Murray, Edgar and Biggio. Even carefully considered sabermetric approaches are likely to produce different takes on this group. By the way, in the lists here, I used overall WAR for the hitters and pitching WAR for the pitchers.
Smoltzie did have a tiny bit of value as a hitter (3.0 WAR), but it’s not enough to push him past Reuschel for 4th-best bWAR on the ballot because Big Daddy could hit a smidge too (1.9 WAR).
Reuschel bWAR – 70.0
Smoltzie bWAR – 69.5
Alomar, Reuschel & Smoltz
Wanted to vote for LaGrow & Soderholm from the South Side Hitmen, but even a Chicago voter can’t stoop that low.
Eric Soderholm is one of those rare players to become eligible for a COG ballot despite only nine years in the majors. His 21.5 career WAR, despite knee problems that cost him a full season in his prime and ended his career prematurely, make him eligible this round. WAR has him as the third most valuable third baseman in the AL in 1975, behind only Brett and Nettles. He missed all of ’76 and then when he came back in ’77, despite the full year out, was behind only Brett, Nettles and Harrah.
Alomar, Whitaker, Edgar.
Special non-counting vote to El Buitre (The Vulture), A.K.A. Señor Smoke.
Wow, great year for the Big Red Machine (Foster, Concepcion, Geronimo, Nolan and backup Chaney)
Much as I love me some BRM, I will save my votes for Little Joe, Johnny, and Peter Edward later. Today I will stick with middle infielders, Whitaker, Trammell and Alomar
I loved the BRM as well. Concepcion in particular deserves a shout-out.
The quintessential Davey Concepcion play: fielding a grouder deep in the hole then skipping the throw off the turf at Riverfront to a waiting Tony Perez. The skip may have cost him a split second or two in MPH, but it sure looked cool.
I miss the flair and colorful personalities of ’70s baseball.
– Roberto Alomar
– Bobby Grich
– Lou Whitaker
As #29/INH above said, we still need a second basemen. So, Whitaker for the win, and Alomar and Grich to keep them on the ballot for a while.
Bill Bonham and Eric LaGrow are two players about whom I honestly have to say I have _no_ memories of at all, although I was following MLB very closely at the time (1970-1980). With LaGrow, I don’t even have the excuse that he was in the NL.
I remembered Bonham as a Cubbie starter in the 70s.
Turns out he and Reuschel were the stalwart starters for Cubs in the mid-70s (along with Ray Burris for a while), post-Ferguson Jenkins. Bonham was a pretty good pitcher with a not-very-good Cubs team. He was credited with 63 losses over the four seasons 1974-77. I believe Phil Niekro is the only pitcher credited with more losses over a four-year period since then. Although Jeremy Guthrie’s put up a pretty good assault on that 63 loss/four season total recently, with 60 losses over both 2008-2011 and 2009-2012. You really do have to be a pretty good pitcher to put up those kinds of loss numbers, because otherwise no one will keep you in a rotation.
Lerrin LaGrow was great for the ’77 ChiSox, but his best-known moment came as a Detroit rookie in the ’72 ALCS:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/OAK/OAK197210080.shtml
Certainly the only postseason game I can recall where a bat was hurled at a pitcher with savage intent — and it just missed him.
Having become aware of the legend of Pete LaCock thanks to you, the child in me now wishes to note that LaGrow faced LaCock on 7 occasions, issuing only an intentional pass.
I’ve decided to go with Trammell, Grich, and Lofton.
I think Tram is the best overall player from the holdovers.
I think Grich is the best 2B of the bunch, edging out Whitaker, Alomar, Sandberg and Biggio in that order, and as noted above, we need a 2B for our team.
I think Lofton had perhaps the most impressive peak, and what the hell, I’m allowed to be a bit of a homer, and I’ve loved Kenny Lofton since I was 6 years old. I don’t think he’ll ever make the COG, but when we’ve completed the exercise, I expect he’ll be among the top vote getters who didn’t quite merit induction.
Also, I’ll add that I mistakenly excluded Charlie Hough from my initial list of “interesting” candidates that appear on this ballot for the first time. Like I said, I wouldn’t vote for any of them, but they all have at least somewhat compelling cases.
Alomar, Edgar Martinez, Trammell.
Tough choices.
With the middle infielders clustered in a relatively narrow range of value, distinguishing between them becomes as much a matter of personal preference as anything. I’ve voted for Alomar the last 10 ballots in a row because I like his all-around game, but I could as easily be voting for Sandberg or Biggio. As for Trammell – when in doubt, take the shortstop, is my motto (I voted for Larkin every year he was on the ballot on similar grounds).
Edgar Martinez presents a different case. I’d been previously been skeptical that he was CoG-worthy, but I’ve changed my thinking on him. True he’s an offense-only player, but I think he did enough with the bat to compensate for his lack of defensive value and shortish career. His OPS+ is 147; here are the top OPS+ of the current CoG members:
Bonds 182
Thomas 156
Bagwell 149
Schmidt 147
Piazza 143
Walker 141
Brett 135
Gwynn 132
Boggs 131
Leaving out 19th century players, his OPS+ is in the top 35 of all time. I think he belongs.
As for the rest of the holdovers…if we had a larger ballot, my next two votes would be for Sandberg and Biggio, as mentioned. Everyone else is, for me, at best a bubble candidate – nothing against Grich and Whitaker per se, but 2B has a *lot* of excellent “2nd tier” candidates, and I don’t think we should end up with something like 14 second baseman in the CoG, so you have to draw a line somewhere.
Winfield and Murray are both players I have a lot of respect for, and both might belong in the CoG, but neither is so overwhelmingly qualified that I want to vote for them at this point in the process. If one gets in, the other really ought to, too – I can’t recall if anyone has pointed out that Murray is Winfield’s #1 Sim Score comp, and Winfield is Murray’s #2 (I usually don’t put much stock in Sim Score since it’s not era- or park-adjusted, but in this case the players were contemporaries so the comparison has more validity).
Lofton is the only speed-and-defense player on the holdover list; he’s another who I think *might* be worthy, but if he’s going to get in I’d rather err on the side of caution and put him in later rather than sooner. He’s obviously not a 1st tier CF, and I’m not sure where he falls in the 2nd tier.
I wouldn’t vote for either Simmons or Reuschel. Smoltz I see as a maybe/leaning towards probably, but again I’d rather wait and see how the back end of the CoG ‘rotation’ fills out before deciding if ‘probably’ becomes ‘yes’.
I’m sorry but there’s a severe lack of Biggio in your post. His 75 OWAR well exceeds Martinez and he did so while surviving second base, not DH. He also stole like 400 more bases. Martinez gets too much credit on here because of these “peak” related numbers. He didn’t produce much outside his peak hence his zero production until age 27 and even his injury time after that aren’t held against him. Purely offensively, there were very few years Martinez was better than the scrappy little (when did 5’11” become little?) all around talent of Biggio. Biggio lead the league in plate appearances 5 times, Martinez typically missed about twice as many games while being coddled at DH. The main complaint with Biggio seems to be he played in his 40’s chasing 3000 hits. His DWAR would be pretty close to flat, at the friggin’ keystone over 15,000 innings if he had retired at the end of his age 39 season. Not to pile on, but Biggio’s knees saw serious abuse as a regular MLB catcher ages 22-25. He wasn’t a good defensive catcher but we’re talking about a career second basemen here, sheesh.
I get the whole Seattle thing with Martinez, I really do. I just see Biggio’s Houston thing as much the same.
In fairness to Edgar Martinez, the reason Biggio’s oWAR is higher than Edgar’s is that oWAR includes a full positional adjustment. Head to head looking at offense only, Edgar was significantly stronger. Biggio’s best OPS+ seasons in the majors was a 143 OPS+. Edgar’s 8th best OPS+ season in the majors was 152 (actually his ninth-best, but I’m only counting full seasons, not Edgar’s Sept. cuppa coffee in 1987). Edgar’s OPS+ for his whole career is 147, higher than Craig had in his very best season. The adjustment for their respective roles outside pure offense is a much harder question, but Edgar was much stronger looking purely at offense (Biggio’s baserunning is not nearly enough to make up the difference).
Lou Whitaker, Rick Reuschel, Edgar Martinez. Sweet Lou passes Rock Raines as the player I’ve voted for the most.
Whitaker
Trammell
Grich
KalineCountry, Detroit’s own Hawk Harrelson. His 1947 ballot will be Whitaker, Trammell, and Joe Coleman.
While KalineCountry is certainly a huge Tiger fan (I think I even remember him from the ESPN boards, if I’m recalling the right name), he’s not exactly voting for the likes of Bill Tuttle and Bobby Higginson. And he’s hardly the only person who likes voting for Whitaker/Tram as a duo.
Plus, no one deserves being compared to Hawk. That’s just mean. 🙂
It is me from espn Cursed Clevelander. You and a few on your Indians board were always a pleasure to read all the years over there. 90 plus percent left about 3 years ago, and now those espn message boards have closed.
All they have now is facebook responses.
I don’t know what the problem is here with No Homers Club. Yeah, I’m a Tigers fan, and also a fan of many players from many teams before 1947, my birth year by the way, and players since.
Good to hear that it’s you, I always enjoyed your posts on the ESPN boards.
Yeah, I saw the “Judgment Day” events on ESPN. The boards were a ghost town anyway because of the 2011 format change, but it was sad to see them close down for good. Some older posters had a “Board Memories” topic on that final day, and it was nice to see a lot of old names I remembered (Smarther, Stan Marsh, evanredsoxnave, Jerksticks).
Now they made the Facebook switch and the Comments pages are basically abandoned.
Thanks man, I always felt comfortable going to all the Central teams boards, and the Yankees board. Great posters all around, most of the comfort zone for us had to do with they knew I was there to talk baseball about their/my teams. I never trolled anyone over there, and for nearly 5 years did that Tigers Daily team notes thread. Lots of posters from other teams seemed to like that to.
Still do the daily Tigers news at the new board we all went to.
One of the last times I went to the Indians board was to lend sympathy to Bob Feller passing. Great pitcher, and American Hero. My Dad said Feller was the best Pitcher he ever saw.
Alomar, Smoltz, Trammell
Smoltz, Edgar Martinez, and Sandberg. As a Yankee fan, I hated to see Edgar come up and rip one into the alley. One of the best pure hitters I ever saw, a real artist.
And, a shout out to Doc Medich, who was good with the Yankees, but without whom I would never have had the pleasure of seeing Willie Randolph play.
Reuschel, Grich, Trammell.
Lou Whitaker
Alan Trammell
Bobby Grich
Trammell, Whitaker because they are still the best of the backlog.
Reuschel because he gets no respect, and he really is as good as the rest of the backlog guys.
Trammell, Grich, Simmons
This is the second time I’ve thought I voted but apparently didn’t. Whitaker, Smoltz, and Grich.
Too many people on the bubble, not protecting anybody. The three best players on this ballot to me are, in order,
Winfield, Smoltz, Biggio
I’m disappointed to learn that Dave Cash and Don Money were never teammates.
Grich, Biggio, Trammell
Winfield, Smoltz, Biggio
I approve lol! Great minds think alike. Rarely though in this COG process have I gotten a matching ballot to mine.
Ha! That is funny, especially given that the two times I’ve commented so far on this blog (Gwynn more valuable than Boggs & importance of Home/Road splits) it was you who piped up to disagree. Smoltz and Biggio are in the clear for future rounds; here’s to hoping some more folks follow suit and vote for Big Dave. He very obviously deserves to stay on the ballot.
I think that it’s quite appropo that Trammell and Whitaker, who were so closely associated as teammates, are battling it out to be elected to the COG.
All the other holdovers in danger of falling off are over the 10% threshold, except for Ted Simmons and Dave Winfield.
Alomar, Biggio, Reuschel
New to the voting I think, donburgh? Welcome!
man, Alomar is as close to a ballot extension as he’s got in over 10 rounds at least! This is a really interesting round.
After some consideration, I am revising my ballot:
Lou Whitaker
Bobby Grich
Ted Simmons
I’ll stick with winfield, Murray and smoltz
Whitaker, Trammell, Smoltz.
Murray, Smoltz, Grich
Biggio
Murray
Lofton
…
Lofton
Alomar
Grich
Biggio, Smoltz, Winfield.
Biggio, Winfield, Simmons.
Smoltz, Alomar, Simmons
I believe we now have a tie between Smoltz and Trammell after 53 ballots…
And only two votes behind is Whitaker, with Grich two behind him. Tonight is the deadline for changing votes, and Wednesday is the deadline for all voting.
I think my vote got lost in the shuffle in some earlier posts, so just in case:
Trammell
Grich
Lofton
Thanks… if it was already counted then sorry for the repost.
Thanks, brp. Your vote, which was indeed overlooked in the shuffle, has now been counted. Thanks for double-checking. (Voters are always encouraged to check the spreadsheet to make sure I have your vote properly recorded) Top 4 now are Trammell 22, Smoltz 21, Whitaker 19, Grich 18.
Biggio
Grich
Reuschel
VOTE CHANGE!!
Changing my vote from:
Biggio, E. Martinez, Murray
to
Biggio, E. Martinez, Trammell
As much as I love Smoltz, I feel like in this vote where a backlogged player is going to get in (something that will be rare in the next 20 rounds, as there’s a lotta talent coming up) we’ve got to get rid of a middle infielder.
Trammell – as much as I’d love to see him an Whitaker get in together, they’ll be in there together eventually.
Alomar – too far for the win, but possibly for an extension? Plus I think he’s one of the best on the ballot, but that may be my teenage Blue Jays nostalgia stubbornly holding on.
Sandberg – Only six votes? Strange, he’s only a hairsbreadth difference from most of the other similar players. I think there was a discussion about ten ballots ago about how he’s not really underrated enough to be a cause celebre amongst saberfans, but not overwhelmingly good enough to stand out either. But he deserves to stay on, for sure.
Wish I could’ve voted for Edgar this round, too. Oh well, plenty more in the future.
Lou Whitaker, Bobby Grich, Edgar Martinez
Dammit, I missed the chance to change my vote! I thought I had today for vote changes for some reason. Oh well, it looks like Trammell is finally getting in, and I’m fine with that. Too bad Grich is going to fall just short in this round.
Even though I’m rooting for Trammell I think that Smoltz, Grich & Whitaker all still have a chance at this point. Don’t forget Molitor coming from behind to catch Gwynn a few elections back.
At this point the only questions remaining- besides the eventual winner of course- would seem to be if Alomar and Biggio can reach 25% and Martinez stay there and can Simmons reach the 10% required to stay on the ballot. My guess is at least a couple of them will end up falling short.
I too think Smoltzie could come back, but it would take some strategy by enough of the remaining voters to outlast Trammell.
Middle infielder festival! Trammell, Biggio, and the badly underrated Concepcion. Sorry, FJM fans.
Smoltz, Winfield, Simmons
Trammell, Alomar, and Ron Cey, for a 6-4-5 vote. That last vote is partly for 70s baseball nicknames, although Cey was also a quality player (with the mix of good defense, good power and on-base skills, and low BA that is becoming so familiar).
If I was voting blind, I would probably have voted for Whitaker, although it is a toss-up between him and Grich for my favorite of the duelling infielders, where the CoG 2nd base deadlock continues. Would any of the CoG shortstops make decent stand-ins on the other side of the infield?
For the 1948 election, I’m voting for:
-Roberto Alomar
-Ryne Sandberg
-Edgar Martinez
Other top candidates I considered highly (and/or will consider in future rounds):
-Biggio (Voted for Previously. Hopefully only temporarily off my ballot)
-Smoltz
-Trammell
-Whitaker
-Murray
-Winfield
-Grich
-Lofton
-Reuschel
Man, vacation nearly cost me my vote this round.
Anyhoo
Trammell, Smoltz, Lofton
Sorry, can’t count this vote — a bit after the deadline. Hope you had a good vacation though, and don’t worry, the vote would not have changed any results.