When Babe Ruth hit 60 home runs back in 1927, setting a season record that would stand for more than 30 years, how many of those homers did he hit in games that the Yankees lost? A grand total of nine. The other 51 homers were all hit in Yankee wins. Indeed, Ruth was merely tied for fourth in the majors in 1927 for home runs hit in team losses, behind Cy Williams (17), Hack Wilson (13) and Ken Williams (10), and tied with Babe Herman. You’ll find more information on such “futile homers” (homers hit in team losses) after the jump.
Here’s the all-time career top 10 for homers hit in regular season team losses. In parentheses, I’ve indicated where each player sits on the overall career regular season home run list:
1. Barry Bonds 269 (also #1 on the overall career homer list)
2. Sammy Sosa 244 (#8 on the overall career homer list)
3. Hank Aaron 242 (#2 on the overall career homer list)
T4. Ken Griffey, Jr. (#6 overall) and A-Rod (#5 overall), 228 each
6. Rafael Palmeiro 220 (#12 overall)
7. Ernie Banks 203 (tied for #21 overall)
T8. Willie Mays (#4 overall) and Mark McGwire (#10 overall) 202
10. Frank Thomas 198 (tied for #18 overall)
Babe Ruth is 14th on the career list of “futile homers”, with 181.
How about the highest single-season totals for “futile homers”? Here’s a list of the top seasons for that category. This time the number in parentheses will be the hitter’s overall home run total for that season:
1. Mark McGwire 1999, 39 homers in team losses (out of 65 total homers)
2. Sammy Sosa 2001, 32 homers in team losses (out of 64 total homers)
T3. Sammy Sosa in both 1998 and 1999, 28 homers in team losses in each season (out of 66 in 1998 and 63 in 1999)
5. Alex Rodriguez 2002, 28 homers in team losses (out of 57 total homers)
6. Chuck Klein 1930, 27 homers in team losses (out of 40 total homers)
After those six seasons, next on that list come five player-seasons of 26 such “futile homers”: Ralph Kiner’s 1949, Barry Bonds’ 2001, the first Frank Thomas’s 1962 (with the 120-loss Mets), Dave Kingman’s 1979 and Brady Anderson’s 1996.
Ed Delahanty and Bob Horner get special “futile homer” awards as the only men to hit four homers in a major league loss. And Johnny Mize deserves a prize (as Dr. Seuss would surely insist), having hit three homers in a team loss four different times in his career. No other player (since 1916, at least) has hit three homers in a loss more than twice in a career, although Miguel Cabrera has already done it twice, and to say he remains active is an understatement.
For a coincidence, both Frank Thomases are in this post (both the Big Hurt and the earlier journeyman slugger) – how often do they get mentioned in the same essay?
I haven’t much idea as to what correlation this has with the seasons and careers of sluggers. Assuming that futile homers are at least partly random (although not entirely, since homers affect the chance of winning/WPA), is there some correlation with team win percentage?
The Babe famously played for some darn good, winning teams, so he would have less opportunities to hit homers in team losses, and so he is quite far down the list in relation to his HR total, unlike, say Bonds or Aaron, whose teams did not win as much as Ruth’s teams. That is setting aside the times that any of these guys won games for their teams with homers, which also should have some effect.
And last, and least importantly, there is a typo RE: Hank Aaron’s HR career ranking. Active players aren’t that close to The Hammer (and Bonds), yet!
Thanks for the catch on Aaron — it’s fixed.
In your response to your substantive observations, I’ve run some numbers for each of the top 10 guys on the all-time career home runs list: how many games their teams won, and lost, when they homered during the game, and also how many games their teams won, and lost, when each guy played but failed to hit a homer. You can check the little spreadsheet I put together here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AklDUJiangSrdFoyMm5xUE42VURFM2RDRW9HWlN0eVE#gid=0
Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron played decades apart, in very different environments and for teams with different league profiles (Aaron for many good teams, Ruth for often-dominant teams). But the difference in their team’s winning percentage when they hit homers as opposed to when they played but didn’t homer, is almost identical.
Aaron’s teams played .667 ball when he hit at least one homer, and .490 when he played but failed to hit any homers — a difference of .177 in winning percentage. For Ruth, the team numbers were .728 when he homered and .553 when he did not — a difference of .175 in winning percentage.
The spreadsheet shows the results of this exercise for each of the top 10 career homer guys. One interesting pattern you can see in the results is that the four smallest differences between team results with and without homers of the ten guys studies are also the four guys with strong PED associations. Bonds, A-Rod, Sosa and McGwire all show a team advantage when they homered, as opposed to when they did not, of between .127 and .143. Junior Griffey, Thome, Aaron, Mays and Ruth all show higher differences — between .170 and .182. The other guy on the list, Frank Robinson, at a difference of .149, is higher than the PED guys but lower than the other five guys.
I guess the first Frank Thomas might be characterized as a “journeyman slugger”, based on his wide travels among teams beginning around the time he turned 30 years old. But before that, he was pretty much a stalwart for the Pirates. Indeed no one played more games for the Bucs in the 1950s than Thomas:
Games Played for the Pirates, 1950-1959
Frank Thomas 925
Dick Groat 811
Bob Skinner 658
Roberto Clemente 627
Bill Virdon 565
It is true, though, that the Pirates were a terrible team through most of the 1950s, and a long tenure with that club is no enormous recommendation.
When I was reading this the idea that among the leaders would likely be sluggers on lousy teams immediately came to mind followed closely by 2 names 1) the Cubs and 2) Ralph Kiner (of the famous Branch Rickey quote: “We finished in last with you; we can finish in last place without you.”.
Chuck Klein was also a name I expected on the list and I wasn’t disappointed.
The first thing I thought of when I saw the title was Paul Konerko’s home run on Monday that turned a 9-0 Yankee lead…into a 9-1 Yankee lead (and final).
Possibly the most futile HR ever? On 9-28-2000 Darrin Fletcher hit a HR for the Blue Jays only run in a 23-1 loss to the Orioles. The score was 16-0 when he connected.
The Orioles said “enough of this, they’ve cut the lead to 15 and increased their Win Prob (1/Avogodro’s Number)” and responded with seven more just to be safe.
The Orioles said “enough of this, they’ve cut the lead to 15 and increased their Win Prob by (1/Avogodro’s Number)” and responded with seven more just to be safe.
Speaking of futile HRs, is George Brett the only person to hit 3 HRs in a postseason game whose team lost?
Yes, indeed. Unfortunately he was bating leadoff and ended up with 3 solo shots. Willie Wilson didn’t hit his stride till the following year, at which point he became the Royals’ leadoff man.
Also, most career “futile homers” in the post-season:
1. Manny Ramirez 11
T2. Jim Thome and Troy Glaus 6
Brett was dreadful that year as a leadoff hitter: .667 OPS and only 1 home run in 170 PAs.