This post is for voting and discussion in the 45th round of balloting for the Circle of Greats (COG). This round completes the group of players born in 1934. Rules and lists are after the jump.
The first group of players born in 1934, with A-Ka surnames, were voted on in last week’s balloting. This round continues with players born in 1934 and having Ke-Z surnames. This round’s new group joins the holdovers from previous rounds to comprise the full set of players eligible to receive your votes in this round of balloting.
As usual, this new group of 1934-born players, in order to join the eligible list, must have played at least 10 seasons in the major leagues or generated at least 20 Wins Above Replacement (“WAR”, as calculated by baseball-reference.com, and for this purpose meaning 20 total WAR for everyday players and 20 pitching WAR for pitchers).
Each submitted ballot, if it is to be counted, must include three and only three eligible players. The one player who appears on the most ballots cast in the round is inducted into the Circle of Greats. Players who fail to win induction but appear on half or more of the ballots that are cast win four added future rounds of ballot eligibility (unless they appear on 75% or more of the ballots, in which case they win six added eligibility rounds). Players who appear on 25% or more of the ballots cast, but less than 50%, earn two added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Any other player in the top 9 (including ties) in ballot appearances, or who appears on at least 10% of the ballots, wins one additional round of ballot eligibility.
All voting for this round closes at 11:00 PM PST Thursday, February 6th, while changes to previously cast ballots are allowed until 11:00 PM PST, Tuesday, February 4th.
If you’d like to follow the vote tally, and/or check to make sure I’ve recorded your vote correctly, you can see my ballot-counting spreadsheet for this round here: COG 1934 Round 2 Vote Tally. I’ll be updating the spreadsheet periodically with the latest votes. Initially, there is a row in the spreadsheet for every voter who has cast a ballot in any of the past rounds, but new voters are entirely welcome — new voters will be added to the spreadsheet as their ballots are submitted. Also initially, there is a column for each of the holdover players; additional player columns from the new born-in-1934 group will be added to the spreadsheet as votes are cast for them.
Choose your three players from the lists below of eligible players. The 17 current holdovers are listed in order of the number of future rounds (including this one) through which they are assured eligibility. The new group of 1934 birth-year guys are listed below in order of the number of seasons each played in the majors.
Holdovers:
Lou Whitaker (eligibility guaranteed for 9 rounds)
John Smoltz (eligibility guaranteed for 5 rounds)
Bob Gibson (eligibility guaranteed for 5 rounds)
Roberto Clemente (eligibility guaranteed for 4 rounds)
Sandy Koufax (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Al Kaline (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Ron Santo (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Juan Marichal (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Craig Biggio (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Bobby Grich (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Harmon Killebrew (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Edgar Martinez (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Willie McCovey (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Ryne Sandberg (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Dick Allen (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Kenny Lofton (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Eddie Murray (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Everyday Players (born in 1934, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Lee Maye
Bill White
Russ Snyder
Leon Wagner
Roger Maris
Andre Rodgers
Jim Landis
Felix Mantilla
John Romano
Marty Keough
Pitchers (born in 1934, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Camilo Pascual
Jim Owens
Earl Wilson
Marichal, Grich, Biggio
Doug, thank you. Glad you could step in!
Kaline, Koufax, Clemente
Not voting for Gibson makes me feel dirty.
Isn’t Santo supposed to have a banked round? I think he made 10% on the other ballot.
Yeah, by the 9 person rule, Santo stays at 2 rounds and Sandberg stays on the ballot bubble. I don’t like the 9 person rule, but that’s what it is. 9 people don’t lose a round including anybody who ties for 9th or higher. Santo and Sandberg tied for 9th, they both don’t lose a round.
Thanks guys. Forgot about the top 9 rule.
Ryno and Santo have their rounds back.
But, Marichal is gone … under 10% and outside the top 9.
Marichal had two rounds last vote.
Here’s a worksheet I’ve been using to keep track of the holdovers. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AklDUJiangSrdG9DVWU1U2VfYmJ2Tnd3OVB4VEF4TlE&usp=drive_web#gid=0
You’re right.
Fixed it (I had it right the first time)
Whitaker, Gison, Clemente
Koufax, Kaline, Gibson
Doug: I hope your temporary stint as running the COG voting doesn’t interrupt your quizzes.
This is very cool. Thanks for picking up for me, Doug.
np
Gibson, Biggio, Edgar
Bob Gibson
Roberto Clemente
Sandy Koufax
Roberto Clemente
WAR, by four year increment:
21-24 2.7
25-28 4.8
29-32 7.8
33-36 7.1
Sorry about the number jumble.
The ages and stats were well-spaced on my form.
Can you someone explain (simply) how to do that better?
The numbers lined up well.
I’m no expert, but one thing I do to align names as closely as possible it to try and use the same number of characters by abbreviating longer names and spelling out the shorter ones. Like this:
Hank Aaron
R Clemente
HKillebrew
Tony Gwynn
WordPress will still do what it does, but it’s about the best you can do with names.
bstar,
what i meant was the lack-of-space between clemente’s age and WAR. Here:
21-24 2.7
I would like to hit the equivalent of “tab” after the number 24.
Try a series of dots between the 24 and the 2.7. Use the same number of dots for each line. And, as bstar, says try to keep the same number of characters in each column, which you do have in your comment anyway.
Got it. A comma, colon, or dash (if you hadn’t already used one) after 24 is about the best I can make it look.
I’m a believer. I think in today’s baseball he would have been given more of a chance in center over Virdon and given the green light more often on the basepaths. With a kinder RPOS and RBASE, especially in the younger years there, I think we would have seen a very wide peak player with a very soft fall off to his career and among the best valued careers in history. I also think that Clemente felt like the producer for so many years, he was not the type to take a walk and defer to lesser bats behind him to get the job done. A little sabermetric wisdom would have helped the very intelligent Clemente increase his value to the team by being a little more patient and a little less RBI focused as well.
I think he had some left in the tank, he was pretty good even among HOFers as an older player and unusually athletic. There are lots of what ifs with players who played during the wars or weren’t allowed into the league for stupid reasons, I think we have to look beyond the numbers with greatness. Clemente screams it to me. I know it may be somewhat unsupported but I think him every bit Hank Aaron’s equal.
So obviously a ‘roider.
😉
Gibson, Kaline, Whitaker
Roberto Clemente, Bob Gibson, Al Kaline
Most Wins Above Average, excluding negative seasons:
Clemente 59.3
Kaline 58.6
Gibson 50.0
Grich 43.6
Santo 43.3
Whitaker 42.7
Martinez 41.3
Smoltz 40.1
Lofton 39.3
McCovey 38.9
Sandberg 38.8
Biggio 36.3
Allen 35.9
Murray 34.9
Killebrew 33.0
Marichal 32.7
Koufax 32.3
Maris 21.6
I actually support Maris’s Hall of Fame case, but he’s nowhere near the Circle of Greats, which is a good thing given the continuing glut of talent on the ballot. This may call for a rare (for me) strategic vote to protect Edgar, but for now, I’ll play it straight.
Clemente, Kaline, Gibson
Allen
McCovey
Sandberg
I hereby promise that I will stop voting for these guys when they fall off the ballot 🙁
So you promise that once you are no longer able to do something, you will no longer do it? What a guy!
I hereby promise that I will breathe until I asphyxiate, die, or grow gills.
A little confused. Part I balloting said Marichal had 2 rounds eligibility left. Either way, my vote is:
Koufax, McCovey, Kaline
My M and M & M boys…..
Steady Eddie
Stretch
&
The Dominican Dandy
Clemente, Kaline, Gibson
Was surprised the Maris’s Fielding WAR wasn’t higher (-1.7 lifetime). My impression was part of the reason he played on the St Louis Teams was because of his defense.
jajacob, try using dWAR just when you’re comparing Maris to all fielders in baseball.
For RF defense, just use his fielding runs (Rfield) without the positional adjustment.
Maris was +45 Rfield for his career, so your impression matches his TZ numbers.
Marichal, Clemente, Gibson
Kaline
Clemente
Koufax
Doug, there are 17 current holdovers, not 15 as you state in the 7th paragraph.
Got it. Thanks, MJ.
Roberto Clemente
Al Kaline
Bob Gibson
Roberto Clemente, Al Kaline, Bob Gibson
Since I currently live about a 5 minute drive from the Roger Maris museum in Fargo and went to college here there’s a real temptation to make him my first “shout out” vote ever. But since there are 9 people on the ballot that I am absolutely certain belong in the COG plus another 6 that I think at least might belong that’s not going to happen.
Kaline, Santo, Sandberg
Oh, you live in Fargo, Hartvig? I stopped in Fargo a couple years back on my cross-country adventure (actually drove the 300 miles there from Menomenie with my radiator held together by duct tape — but that’s a long story!). I remember it mainly as the hottest place in the entire world; I think it was over a hundred degrees that day, and totally flat and wide open. Not what I expected from North Dakota at all!
Also I remember discovering that there’s still a Ground Round in Fargo and being super excited. That’s a blast from the past! 😀
Ground Round is still there! In fact, from where I’m at, all you do instead of turning left to go a couple of blocks to the Roger Maris museum (which is actually located in a shopping mall but it even has a small theater room where you can watch a short biographical film of Maris and a bunch of different clips of him playing) you go right about 4 blocks to get to the restaurant.
And yes it gets really hot in North Dakota. In fact I remember lots of 100 degree days when I was growing up he in the 60’s (although I wouldn’t care to vouch for the accuracy of my dad’s thermometer) before I moved away after college for over 30 years. The difference between then and now is that for most of those 30 years the state has been in a wet cycle so there is a LOT more water around and it’s much more humid. As a kid I could play out in the dry heat all day long and think nothing of it. Now if I go out and mow my yard in this outdoor sauna by the time I’m done I have to go back into the air-conditioning and have a cold beer before I collapse.
I’m sure the difference is the humidity and getting older has nothing to do with it☺
Would you say the Roger Maris Museum is worth a stop? Is it fairly compact (ie. can I drop in for an hour and be on my way)? Just asking because I’m your neighbour to the north (live in Winnipeg) and I’m through now and then, particularly in a couple of weeks when I’m heading south for a bit. That’d be a pretty decent break after 4 hours of driving; if it was compelling enough, it might get me to consider him for the next redemption round 😉
Is it worth a stop? Most definitely. I wouldn’t make the drive from Winnipeg to here just to see it but if you’re coming down anyways and trying to decide between Grand Forks and Fargo it would at least be worth part of the extra 75 mile drive between the two. And if you go in the right Mall entrance you can literally be there within 5 minutes from being on Interstate.
You can literally see all they have to offer by just standing in one place and easily glance over most everything and even watch some videos within an hour. If you want to look it over carefully so you don’t miss anything and read and watch all they have to offer you could easily kill 2 or 3 hours.
If you click on the listing on the left side of the screen it will show you exactly where it’s located (the top of the screen is north) plus there’s a link to the museum website
http://www.westacres.com/shopping-dining-mall-directory.php
Like I said, not worth driving all the way from Winnipeg just to see but if you’re passing by anyways you can grab something at the food court and look it over while you eat and not have to spend any more time than you would at Appleby’s or someplace like that.
Cool! Thanks for the detail. I have to admit that I really tend to enjoy local museums; I like histories that aren’t necessarily ‘great men’ narratives, and a museum dedicated to one baseball player seems like it’d be a fun stop to enrich what I know of the guy (not much). And yeah, maybe not a destination location, but I am occasionally through towards Minneapolis, or part of a general trip. If I make it by, I’ll be sure to mention it here whenever a relevant topic comes up.
When I visited the Maris Museum ca. 2004, they had Comiskey Park misspelled on their list of the 61 homeruns in 1961.
Bob Gibson, Roberto Clemente, Al Kaline
Hmmm… I thought I had voted, but it looks like it disappeared or didn’t submit or something.
Clemente
Gibson
Kaline
Probably not going to be much love (or, maybe, any love) for the 1934 boys. So, some tidbits.
– Camilo Pascual and Mudcat Grant were the last two pitchers to both go the distance for 12+ IP, on 7-23-63, 3 weeks after the Spahn/Marichal game
– Jim Landis and Lee Maye were … traded for each other. Landis was also traded with or for several other notables, including Tommy John, Rocky Colavito, Tommy Agee and Joe Rudi.
– Bill White was the first rookie 1st baseman to hit 20+ HR for the Giants. Two years later, he was shipped to St. Louis to make way for Orlando Cepeda, the second rookie 1st baseman to hit 20+ HR for the Giants.
– Roger Maris ranked 5th in the AL with 151 HR for 1961-65. Right behind him was Leon Wagner with 150. Wagner and John Romano were 1-2 in HR for the 1964 Indians.
– Andre Rogers was the last New York Giant … who was born in the Bahamas. Rodgers was the first of only 6 Bahamian major leaguers, and the only one to surpass 300 career AB.
– In his post-season debut, Russ Snyder had a walk, hit, run and RBI, in 2 PA against … Don Drysdale
– Lee Maye led the NL with 44 doubles for the 1964 Braves, the only team of the 1960s to have 3 players bat .300 with 30 doubles (Aaron and Torre were the others)
– Earl Wilson is tied with Warren Spahn for 3rd on the career HR list … for players with a career batting average under .200. Wilson also ranks 3rd in fewest career PA among all players with 35+ HR.
– Marty Keough had 9 triples to lead the 1961 Senators, including the last hit by a Washington player at Griffith Stadium (the last triple hit at Griffith was by the visiting Harmon Killebrew; he had hit exactly one triple in 196 previous games in his former home park)
Earl Wilson homered more frequently than Eddie Murray, Stan Musial, Dave Winfield, Carl Yastrzemski, Andre Dawson, Cal Ripken, Billy Williams, Darrell Evans … and his ’68 World Champs teammate, Al Kaline.
Roberto Clemente, Sandy Koufax, Al Kaline
This is really tough.
Clemente, Lofton, Murray
BGibson — 9 GS in the World Series, 1960-69 : was 2nd among all pitchers (Ford)
RMaris — 41 GP in the World Series, 1960-69 : led all players
CBiggio — 668 career doubles leads all right-handed hitters
(followed by H.Aaron©, Molitor©, C.Ripken©, Yount©, I.Rodriguez, Kent, M.Ramirez, Heilmann, Hornsby, Medwick, Winfield, A.Simmons, F.Robinson©, Jeter@, Pujols@, Mays)
where @=active and ©=Circle of Greats member
CPascual led the AL in WAR (pitchers + position players) in 1959 as I discovered looking up stats for JLandis on b-r.
Voting for Gibson, Maris, Biggio
I was assuming that meant “Molitor” is ©2014 oneblankspace. 😉
Santo, Kaline, Clemente
Stay tuned Bob Gibson – you just have more rounds than these guys.
Al Kaline, Roberto Clemente, Bob Gibson.
Roberto Clemente, Juan Marichal, Lou Whitaker.
After 53 years, Cuba is back at the Caribbean Series. The Lagartos (Alligators) de Villa Clara (Serie Nacional champions) will play against Liga Mexicana del Pacífico´s champion, Naranjeros (Orange Growers) de Hermosillo, on saturday night.
Also in the tournament, the Dominican Republic is represented by Tigres de Licey, Puerto Rico´s team is Indios (Indians) de Mayaguez, and for the host Venezuela will play Navegantes (Navigators) del Magallanes.
From February 1-8, baseball followers from the countries mentioned above, will have a chance to watch meaningful games (at least to most of us).
Now we return to our regular scheduled voting process.
Luis, is Cuba’s return to La Serie del Caribe connected with Ozzie Guillen’s role in the ESPN coverage?
I’m making a stupid joke, of course; but Ozzie really is part of ESPN’s crew. They should have him interview the Cuban players about Fidel. But no, I guess there wouldn’t be much point unless they felt free to speak their true minds. (I’m not being sarcastic, by the way.)
Anyway, I see that Mexico v. Puerto Rico at 3 p.m. EST makes a perfect bridge in my sports day, between Michigan-Indiana basketball at 1:00 and that weirdo game where we actually watch the commercials. 🙂
¡Vamos, los Naranjeros!
John, last night Naranjeros defeated Cuba in their return to la Serie del Caribe, on a 9 to 4 victory.
A few known names appeared for Mexico´s team, for instance, starting pitcher Alfredo Aceves threw 7 solid innings allowing 3 runs on 5 hits. His battery-mate was non other than his brother Jonathan, a Mexican League veteran. Chris Roberson (cup of coffe with the Phillies) got 4 hits, including a 3-run homerun.
Gil Velazquez played shortstop, Oliver Perez did not played but he is one the bullpen arms, as well as longtime reliever Dennis Reyes. And former Major Leaguer Daryle Ward is Mexico´s First baseman/DH.
As you said, today they square-up against Puerto Rico, whose manager is former MLB All Star, Carlos Baerga.
For a life-long baseball junkie like me, this the perfect way to spend the Winter waiting for the Spring to come. Pitchers and catchers can wait for another week. 🙂
Wow, Gil Velazquez has almost 1,500 games in the U.S. minors — and just 33 games in MLB. I wish him luck! He did get into a game with the Marlins last year, but is now a free agent. I hear the Mets need a SS….
He has played the last two winters with Mexicali, and I think he´s got a Major League glove, but his hitting, well, let say he´s a good fit for the Mets.
(Sorry, John, I couldn´t resist it!)
It would be fun if this were actually a Clemente vs Kaline vs Gibson vote.
With all of the strategic agendas, and the fact that we have 4 elections before anyone better comes along, well, it is not so simple.
I would be fascinated to see an unofficial side vote, where everyone chooses ONE and only one player from this ballot.
Personally, I pick Clemente.
I’m learning more about him right now.
Seems like he was a special human being.
One thing I’ve realized while thinking about this ballot, is that voting in the classic “straight” sense of just picking your personal top 3 of who’s on the ballot really does nothing to distinguish anybody at the top, since we have three that are clearly above the rest in the collective opinion. If everybody agreed to vote perfectly straight, and there isn’t someone who disagrees and thinks say Koufax or Grich or Whitaker or whoever is actually a bit better than one of the triumvirate — then they all tie.
It seems to me that it makes more sense to vote straight for your top candidate, in the hope of pushing them relative to the other upper contenders, and then to vote strategically for the best of the bubble candidates, *presuming* you believe that at least 2 bubblers ultimately belong.
One thing to note is that there’s two different senses of strategic voting at the bottom. One is to keep people in play that you think should be in, and one is to keep people in play that you just think somehow deserve more serious consideration than to be dropped early. I don’t do the latter. Every vote I’ve put in has been for a player I believe belongs in the COG. That to me is straight enough.
Not voting yet this round, but between the top three I pick Clemente, which means he’ll be on my ballot if he’s not a clear runaway by the time I decide.
I’ve voted straight in every election so far in the sense that I’ve not given a single vote to anybody on any ballot that I don’t actually think belongs in the COG when all is said and done, and I’ve given up on a couple players who I think belong, but I could tell were very unlikely to get enough support from the voters here to get in.
I would actually argue that, at this point, the plurality of different strategies is the best method. We’ve been getting results that work, and there hasn’t really been an egregious oversight or unconscionable election. I’ve been thinking about strategies a lot lately, since it’s been a major topic of conversation lately, and I’ve got to say that I believe, so far, that the best strategy is for everyone to just continue applying their own individual strategy. It’s worked well so far.
I do think that the majority of folks on here will at least vote for who they think is the best player on a give ballot, say 75% of people. Half of the rest will vote for the best player but change if they think there’s a strategic gain to be had. I’d say only about an eighth of our voters purposely and unashamedly ignore the top of the ballot.
Clemente, Gibson, Edgar
Gibson
Clemente
Koufax
Gibson, Grich, Marichal
Gibson, Clemente, Koufax
Clemente, Gibson, Kaline.
I’d normally go Gibson, Clemente, Kaline, but Juan Marichal needs some insurance to make sure he stays on the ballot.
Bob Gibson, Al Kaline, Juan Marichal
Clemente
Grich
Lofton
Clemente, Gibson, Lofton
Gibson, Clemente, Koufax. Pains me to note vote for Kaline (who has the same birthday as me!), but you gotta do what you gotta do.
For the 1934-Part Two election, I’m voting for:
-Ryne Sandberg
-Bob Gibson
-Roberto Clemente
Other top candidates I considered highly (and/or will consider in future rounds):
-Smoltz
-Biggio
-Martinez
-Whitaker
-Grich
-Lofton
-Santo
-McCovey
-Murray
-Kaline
Clemente, Kaline, and Santo
Mainly I want Santo to get in so Birtelcom can title his post “Santo Claus is coming to town.”
I guess “Ronsanto: Better Living Through Chemistry” wouldn’t fly, since Santo hit just .248 on fake grass.
John:
Re “Ronsanto: Better Living Through Chemistry”, it might not be “seeds and genomics” or “agricultural productivity”, but that insulin sure helped…
Clemente, Kaline, Grich – rare strategic vote for me after missing a round last time.
Vote:
Roberto Clemente
Bob Gibson
Kenny Lofton
Grich, Biggio, Koufax
Gibby, Roberto, Koufax .
John Smoltz, Sandy Koufax, Craig Biggio
Well, in a sense this vote seems obvious if we’re voting for a ‘top 3’, but I’ll run through it with my statistical methodology anyway. These are the rankings of the players on the ballot on 3 measures: WAR, WAA+, and JAWS. A ranking of 3 means that, cumulatively, the player is ranked #1 on the ballot on each of these measures. A ranking of 51 means the player is 17th on all 3 measures. The rankings (with rankings of each of the 3 measures, respectively, in parentheses):
Clemente 4 (1 1 2)
Kaline 7 (2 2 3)
Gibson 7 (3 3 1)
Grich 14 (5 4 5)
Santo 15 (6 5 4)
Whitaker 18 (4 6 8)
Martinez 24 (8 7 9)
Smoltz 27 (7 8 12)
Lofton 29 (10 9 10)
Sandberg 29 (11 11 7)
McCovey 34 (13 10 11)
Murray 36 (9 14 13)
Marichal 36 (14 16 6)
Biggio 38 (12 12 14)
Allen 44 (16 13 15)
Killebrew 46 (15 15 17)
Koufax 51 (17 17 17)
Clemente (I think he’s the best of the 3, Voomo, btw)
Gibson
Kaline
I told myself I was going to vote straight these rounds, but I am considering the idea of changing my vote if someone like Grich is in danger of falling off, as he would be close to the best candidate in the 1931 part 1 election. Or even Edgar, I might consider saving if need be. We shall see.
Biggio, Gibson, Koufax.
Gibson, Marichal, Clemente
Clemente, Kaline, Gibson
Clemente, Gibson, Kaline
Roberto Clemente, Willie McCovey, Dick Allen
Martinez, McCovey, Sandberg
If I had just one vote, as per VZ @48 (and was voting straight), I’d vote for Gibaon.
Oh, and I meant to say – Doug, thanks for keeping this moving along!
np
I’m happy to help out.
Gibson, Clemente, Koufax
Sandberg
Santo
Allen
Clemente, Grich, and Santo please.
Gibson, Marichal and Killebrew
Pardon my mixed-metaphor: a number of on-the-bubble candidates are probably going to fall off the cliff. Here is my effort to prevent a few from doing that:
– Kenny Lofton
– Willie Mccovey
– Ryan Sandberg
Lawrence, I’ve just noticed your name is listed twice on the spreadsheet (once in the correct alphabetical position, once just after Hub Kid). Doug, maybe you could delete one of these to avoid the small possibility that it causes some confusion down the line?
Done.
Thanks for spotting that.
@94/RJ,
Wow, you’re right – I never noticed that. I’m pretty sure that I’ve only voted once in every election :).
I too am trying to save some bubble candidates that I think belong:
Edgar Martinez, Kenny Lofton, Bobby Grich.
In fact, these are the only three bubble candidates I would put in the CoG.
Looks like the sheet hasn’t been updated in awhile (I just realized, after reading back to see who the last counted vote was, that the highlighted line in Doug’s spreadsheet helpfully represents just that). For those interested in how changing their vote before tonight’s deadline might affect standings, here’s what I have (55 votes in, as of comment #93):
1. Clemente – 36
2. Gibson – 33
3. Kaline – 23
4. Koufax – 14
5. Marichal – 8
6. Grich – 7
T7. McCovey – 6
T7. Sandberg – 6
T7. Lofton – 6
T7. Biggio – 6
11. Santo – 5
12. Martinez – 4
T13. Allen – 3
T13. Whitaker – 3
15. Murray – 2
T16. Smoltz – 1
T16. Killebrew – 1
Not that it much matters, but Maris also has 1 vote.
That’s helpful, bells, thank you!
I’m not changing my vote but Santo might be the most under-voted candidate based on qualifications we’ve ever had.
Totally agree. I guess it’s just the depth of the talent pool that’s holding him back right now. But he’s one of the very best on the ballot. I’ve voted “straight” in every election, and I didn’t have room for him this time. I believe that won’t be a problem next election, though.
With under 2 hours to go and still 2 votes short it looks like he’ll go back to being on-the-bubble. I think he’s been on every ballot of mine since he was first eligible (if not, then at least almost every one) and he’ll probably remain there until he either falls off or gets in. I think he’s got a very good shot at getting in during the 1920’s balloting- the trick will be for him to get there.
Santo has had bad timing. His first time on the ballot (1940 pt 2) he lost by one vote to Rose; he’s then faced a near-continuous wave of first-ballot talent, backed up by some members of the current holdover list:
1939: Niekro, Yaz
1938: Perry, McCovey
1969: Griffey, Rivera
1937#1: Marichal
1937#2: B Robinson
Followed, of course, by the great tsunami of 1935-34, the floodwaters of which have yet to recede. But (if I may) the tide is probably turning for Santo; with the holdover list getting pared down, he may stay on the bubble for a while, but I don’t think he’ll fall off. Who knows, he might even win 1931 pt 1. That’s going to be an interesting vote.
Vote change:
I’ll push Clemente towards the clinch and break the tie for 7th.
from:
Clemente
Gibson
Lofton
to
Clemente
Biggio
Lofton
Clemente, Gibson, Killebrew
I was just about to write about how I forgot to change my vote, but then I realized the deadline is 11pm PST, not EST, so I still have an hour. Sweet.
I’m, for one vote at least, abandoning my self-promise to not vote strategically through the 30s. I said that when I would have been happy to see any bubble candidates drop off. But due to the strategic voting in previous rounds favouring keeping bubble candidates at the expense of extra round players, we’re at a place where we might lose one of two guys I’m certain deserve to stay on the ballot – Grich and Martinez. Grich seems to be surviving, but Edgar’s a bit behind. Once the top 3 are gone (and the 1931 Mantle/Mays/Mathews triumvirate), Edgar is top 3-4 on my ballot for sure, and I’ve had a long enough look at him to be convinced he belongs.
So, Doug, please change my vote from:
Clemente
Gibson
Kaline
to:
Clemente
Martinez
Kaline
I’m a West Coaster, so you get a few more hours.
I’ll change your ballot.
The deadline for changing votes has passed, but still two more days to cast your vote if you haven’t done so yet.
As of this posting, Clemente has a 5 vote lead on Gibson to become the next COG inductee. Both are comfortably north of 50% of votes cast, so the loser will earn four additional rounds of eligibility as a consolation prize.
At the other end of the ballot, here is a current projection for players in their last round of eligibility:
– in danger of dropping from ballot: Murray, Martinez, Allen, Killebrew
– on the bubble (would survive now, but that could change): Biggio, Lofton, Grich, McCovey, Sandberg
– probably will make it to next round: Marichal
With 8 votes, Marichal’s safe – we haven’t cracked 80 voters in over 30 elections.
Interesting that the players most in danger of dropping off the ballot are the sluggery types. Long live the glut of second baseman!
Gibson, Clemente, and Sandberg, and again, apologies to Kaline. Tough list, and I’m fascinated by the tepid support Koufax gets. I wonder if newer stats don’t show him to be somewhat less than we all thought, even in his prime. Very hard to hyper-excel in lower-run envrionent.
It’s also partly the competition he has been up against (Robinson, Aaron, Gibson, Clemente, Kaline) and partly the fact that his support has always been solid enough to comfortably retain eligibility; late voters are more likely to send their votes to holdovers in greater danger of falling off the ballot. I’ve not voted for him yet, but I intend to eventually.
There are also fair numbers of us who don’t think he belongs and are unlikely to vote for him over some of the long time holdovers even after the really clear guys get in, with the reasons for that discussed by me and a few other commenters the year he came on.
I’m not advocating for Koufax and don’t see voting for him in the next few rounds. But I’m among the older readers and at his peak, contemporary consensus was he was an all time great. I think if this exercise had been done three decades ago, he would have placed over Gibson.
Gibson vs. Koufax Head-to-head, when both started the game: (I did it for Drysdale-Marichal, I can do it for Gibson-Koufax)
25 May ’61: Koufax CG-SHO, 8K; Gibson L, 8IP, 1ER, 8K
24 Sept 61: Gibson W, 6 1-3 IP, 5R 3ER, 6K; Koufax L, 3IP, 4R 2ER, 3K
18 June 62: Koufax CG-SHO, 9K; Gibson CG, 8 1-3 IP, 8K, 1ER
3 July 63: Koufax CG-SHO, 9K; Gibson L, 6 2-3 IP, 5ER, 3K
26 Apr ’66: Koufax CG-W, 2ER, 8K; Gibson CG-8, 4ER, 6K
Koufax 4-1 (4-0 in CG), 3SHO; Gibson 1-4 (0-2)
Koufax 8G, 7 GS in the World Series, 1959-66 (0.95 ERA); Gibson 9G, 9GS, 1964-68 (1.89 ERA)
@120
A bit unfair in that the comparison is Koufax in his prime to a before-his-prime Gibson.
Interesting that they avoided each other for two years and only once faced each other twice in the same season.
Since Clemente seems in little danger of not being elected:
McCovey, Killebrew, Murray
Gibson, Allen, Killebrew
Roberto Clemente, Kenny Lofton, Craig Biggio
Spoiler alert: Clemente is already listed in the Circle of Greats roster if you click on the link at the top of the home page.
Martinez, Lofton, Biggio
Murray, Allen, Martinez
That lifts Martinez to a 4 way tie for the last 2 spots with Grich, McCovey and Sandberg at 7 votes and puts Allen (and Santo) 2 votes from reaching that level and Murray (and Killebrew) 3 votes off. However since we are at 62 votes at the moment anyone with 7 votes will most likely clear the 10% margin to stay on the ballot no matter what else transpires.
Koufax, Kaline, Grich.
Murray, Killebrew and Clemente