After a tedious month filled with plenty of patience and very little news, Japanese ace Masahiro Tanaka finally broke the freeze, signing a 7 year/$155 million dollar deal with the New York Yankees. If you’ve been paying any attention at all this offseason, the Tanaka signing should come as no surprise. That much discussed luxury tax number, $189 million, they Yankees were hoping avoid was always a pipe dream and after the big money signings of Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Carlos Beltran, New York almost had to sign Tanaka to upgrade what appeared to be a league average pitching staff.
Mo Money, Mo Problems
Now, the easy thing to do is to immediately write off these high dollar moves for aging players as foolish. With the way baseball (and most other sports) are continuously trending toward younger athletes, signing a pile of veterans to long-term deals seems counterproductive to winning games. But in this particular case, I don’t think the Yankees really had any other option.
Their minor league system, as everyone found out a season ago, is almost completely bereft of even moderate contributors at nearly all of the non-bullpen positions. And while that may signal a bigger problem within the organization, that’s not a problem that can even be approached in one offseason. Drafting and nurturing players into competitive big leaguers takes time, and time is something that never comes up for sale. So instead, the Yankees did the only other thing they could think of, they went out and spent $438 million to bring in 4 All-Star caliber players.
Now, to be fair, this plan is almost guaranteed to backfire at some point within the next 3-4 seasons, barring a talent upgrade in New York’s minor league system. The Yankees already have an astronomic $142 million committed to just 7 players for 2016 and most of those ball players are going to be closer to 40 years old than 30 by that point. That’s a scary proposition for a team with very little bankable talent currently under the age of 28. That’s also going to be a major problem over the next few years for a couple of reasons.
First and foremost, Brian Cashman’s pipe dream of falling underneath the $189 million dollar luxury tax threshold is now dead and buried. That means New York will have to pay a 50% tax on every dollar over $189 million, which could majorly limit how Cashman and company round out the roster the next few years. The Yankees are more than likely looking at luxury tax costs swelling up near $100 million total for the next 3 seasons, which puts the onus on this current roster to win now and win often.
It also leaves the team competing with a thin roster that may not be able to withstand more than an injury or two. And thanks to their gratuitous spending, New York has also forfeited its 1st round draft pick this season, which further handicaps the draft and development process. The Yankees have basically caught themselves in a vicious cycle of spending with no way out.
But what about 2014?
That doesn’t mean its all doom and gloom however. The 2014 roster looks to be one of the better collections of talent in the Major Leagues. The infield will probably be a work in progress for a majority of the season, but the outfield is star-studded and the pitching staff has more than enough talent to get the job done. Tanaka will slide in nicely between CC Sabathia and fellow countryman Hiroki Kuroda to form a deep rotation that could easily end 2014 as one of the best in baseball. The newly acquired Tanaka was 24-0 in the Nippon Pro League a year ago, throwing 212 innings while striking out nearly 6 batters per every walk. Tanaka’s sinker heavy arsenal and biting slider should be more than enough for him to have success in the big leagues. With Ivan Nova slotted in the #4 spot and David Phelps and Michael Pineda (remember him?) fighting for the last spot, the Yankees have more than enough pitching.
The real concern should come with the bats, because outside of the recently departed Robinson Cano, this unit was a black hole a year ago. New York frequently gave at-bats to some of the very worst hitters in baseball which resulted in bottom of the league production at multiple key positions. The Yankees received bottom of the league production in left and right field while also managing to put together the worst collection of designated “hitters” in team history.
Those “hitters” managed to put up an egregious .189/.276/.307 triple slash that would make even a poor Double-A batter blush. That definitely shouldn’t be a problem this season because manager Joe Girardi has plenty of options the come with All-Star pedigrees, which should make for some fun combinations. If he’s worried about having the speed to cover a spacious outfield like the ones in Detroit or Oakland he can turn to the Ellsbury-Brett Gardner-Ichiro combo, while playing Beltran at DH. If he wants to try to play for piles of runs he might go with Ellsbury-Gardner-Beltran with the powerful Alfonso Soriano hitting DH. He can pencil this group in any way he wants, no matter what it’s a huge upgrade from 2013.
A few of New York’s other problems can be alleviated through better health as well. Mark Teixeira, even at his very worst, has never been within a hundred points of the pitiful .690 OPS the Yankees received from the likes of Lyle Overbay and others a year ago. It’s hard to imagine Derek Jeter doing much worse than the pitiful Eduardo Nunez, who might double as the only player whom the aging Jeter can still out-defend, which is saying something. The bottom of the rotation should look a bit better too, especially if Michael Pineda can make his way back. The big right-hander is still just 25 and in his only big league season he managed to make the All-Star team thanks to an overpowering fastball that racked up an impressive 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio.
But this roster still has problems despite all the money dumped into it. New York is asking some combination of Kelly Johnson, the oft-injured Brian Roberts, and Eduardo Nunez, to replace one of the 3 or 4 best players in baseball at 2nd base. Johnson is the best of the trio and he has some pop in his bat, having topped 15 homers six separate times in his career. And while his lefty swing should play nicely with the short porch, he’s leagues away from being the defender Cano is.
Nunez is even farther down that totem pole, rating as the worst defensive shortstop since the dawn of defensive metrics a decade ago. He was estimated to have cost the Yankees nearly 19 runs with his glove last year in just 75 games, which would rank as the worst season in the past decade if he had the number of innings to qualify. Oh, and Brian Roberts? Well, your best guess is as good as mine when it comes to what his production in 2014 will look like. He hasn’t even managed to crack the 80 game mark since 2009.
Even with all this spending the Yankees still aren’t exactly done with their roster. Girardi and Cashman also have to figure out what they want to do at 3rd base, which at this point, is starting to look like an unmitigated disaster. Alex Rodriguez (thankfully) won’t play an inning this year and while the Yankees’ best option might be moving Derek Jeter over, that probably won’t happen. None of the infield candidates mentioned above really have the chops to man the position, which could and probably will lead to a midseason trade.
—————-
No matter how you slice it, 2014 is going to be a massively important year in the Bronx. The Yankees roster, as currently constructed, has to compete, not only for the AL East title, but for the World Series title as well. Unless ownership wants to take the payroll to previously unheard of levels in professional sports, the Yankees are pretty much set with what they have for the next 3 seasons, which means if they don’t win, they won’t win anytime soon. If CC Sabathia, Tanaka, and others struggle in the rotation, reinforcements aren’t coming. If somebody from the infield doesn’t step up there isn’t a ready-made alternative available. The Yankees have given up all of their flexibility through poor drafting, tough luck in development and ill-advised, big money contracts. We’ll find out soon enough whether or not the Yankees have deep enough pockets to spend their way out of it.
Runs Created by Yankees Infielders
2009: 565 (70 more than any other team in the majors)
2010: 488 (3rd in the majors)
2011: 459 (3rd in the majors)
2012: 472 (4 more than any other team in the majors)
2013: 337 (26th in the majors)
They are doomed with Johnson/Roberts at second base.
No team has ever won the World Series without an Allstar/HOFer at every position.
Deadpan irony, I presume.
No team has ever reached the World Series without a regular player under age 30. (100+ games, or the equivalent in a shortened season.)
Which doesn’t mean it couldn’t be done. 🙂
The 1945 Tigers had 7 of the 8 regular starting position players who were 30+ years old. 3B Bob Maier was 29 as of June 30 of that year but he turned 30 on Sept. 5. It was his only year in the ML. C Bob Swift started only 95 games but his back-up, Paul Richards, was also over 29 years old.
The Yankees spent $491 million this offseason so far, just short of half a billion and they still are only a mediocre team.
Yes, but that $ number is a commitment over many years to come. For 2014, Rivera, Cano and A-Rod are off the payroll, so that’s $53M off the payroll compared to 3013 just with those three changes — it is not unexpected that they would be adding a lot of new 2014 payroll just to get back to where they were.
Why do you say this? 2013 WAA
Sabathia: -1.6
Kuroda: 2.3
Nova: 2.4
McCann: 0.9
Texeria: -0.5
Roberts: -0.3
Johnson: -0.1
Jeter: -1.0
Gardner: 2.2
Elsbury: 3.8
Beltran: 0.5
Soriano: 0.7
Projected record:
91-71
This basically says Tanaka and #5 starter will add up to 0 WAA and the yankees bullpen, which was a real strength last year, will also get 0WAA. You can say that they’re old and will drop off in production in 2013 but Elsbury, Beltran, and McCann will surely love the short porch. I think expecting negative WAA from Texeria is crazy because he’s usually such a good defender when healthy. I think the starting rotation is pretty solid top to bottom too. Maybe Nova and Kuroda regress but Sabathia seems unlikely to be negative. There is depth with Pineda, Phelps, and Warren for a 5th/swingman type to add value as well.
The team might still go after Drew which would add another couple wins, or another impact player at the trade deadline now that finances are not an immediate pressure. Hate all you want but the yankees are not medicore. They’re not the favorites but certainly in the hunt for a playoff spot.
That .189/.276/.307 from the DH slot is mind-boggling.
.206 .304 .383 from Hafner in 44% of the PA.
But everyone else they plugged in was either slumping, injured, or thrown off by being DH
6 – 54 Alex Rod
2 – 34 Soriano
4 – 23 Cano
3 – 30 Ben Francisco (!)
.583 is the fourth lowest team OPS from the DH slot over a season in AL history, I think.
It was the 4th lowest. The other three are
Twins,.545 in 1981:
Rangers, .560 in 1988
Angels, .562 in 2001
“If CC Sabathia, Tanaka, and others struggle in the rotation, reinforcements aren’t coming. If somebody from the infield doesn’t step up there isn’t a ready-made alternative available.”
That is not the simple truth.
The Yanx minor league system may be average at best, but there are capable players down there. Arms, bats, gloves.
They’ve had a great homegrown bullpen for years.
The 4-5 starters will be in-house and they will be good enough for 4-5.
And until this last spree, they have been homegrown up the middle forever (C-2B-SS-CF)
Their perceived #4 starter (Nova) had 3.6 WAR in 139 IP last year.
While you are most certainly correct that the Yankees have been homegrown at most of the up-the-middle positions (C, SS, CF, 2B), you are also completely grasping for straws. Brett Gardner was the last player out of that group to reach the Major Leagues and he’s been on the roster since 2008. Jeter and Cano haven’t been in the minors in a decade and the catcher spot has primarily been manned by Russell Martin and Chris Stewart over the past few years and neither of them came from the Yankee farm system.
The 2013 season was the first time in as long as I can remember that the Yankees had to rely on their farm system to fill in the blanks and it was woefully ill equipped to do so. Dave Adams, Austin Romine, and Zoilo Almonte among others were the best players the Yankees could turn to and none of that trio even managed an OPS+ above 60, despite the fact that they received 400 or so combined at-bats.
It’s why Brian Cashman turned to stopgap guys like Lyle Overbay, Mark Reynolds, and Alfonso Soriano a year ago and it’s precisely the reason the Yankees are spending like mad right now. Just take a look at any Yankees top prospect list. It’s bleak.
I have to agree with David. Whatever is in the farm system, it’s certainly not major league ready. Bad draft placement, bad choices, and bad luck.
The Yankees carried a general philosophy through most of the 2000s that they would always be able to simply buy hitters but buying pitchers was too much of a crap shoot. Because of this, they focused their entire farm system heavily on obtaining and developing pitchers.
Phil Huges, Joba Chamberlin, and David Robertson you’ve probably heard of and associate with the yankees. There’s also Ivan Nova, David Phelps, Adam Warren, Preston Claiborne
How about guys traded away:
Ian Kennedy, Mark Melancon, John Axford, Tyler Clippard, Phil Coke, Alfredo Aceves, George Kontos, Hector Noesi
There’s also pitching high prospects you may have heard of like:
Andrew Brackman, Dellin Betances, Manny Banuelos
And I think I could literally find 25 other yankee drafted pitchers between the 2001-2010 drafts that pitched in the majors last year.
Oh yeah there’s no doubt the Yankees are great at developing relievers. Their current bullpen is stocked with homegrown guys apart from Thornton and most every team around the league dating back to the early 2000s had Yankee or two in their bullpen at some point.
But as for the prospects, Brockman pitched 2 innings in Single-A last year for the White Sox and threw 2.1 innings in the bigs total way back in 2011. Betances looks like a pitcher who will never be able to get his walk rate below 5, which is death for a big league reliever. And Banuelos didn’t pitch last year and threw 24 innings total in 2012. These guys aren’t prospects, they’re losing lottery tickets.
The best the Yankees can hope for is a strong year from Nova, a true blue Yankee product, and Pineda, who wasn’t brought up by the Yankees but was acquired in exchange for Jesus Montero, the Yankee uber-prospect of the past decade. Otherwise the top of the system is fairly barren.
This has no real place in this discussion, but I don’t know where to bring it up and was reminded of it by talking about prospects – what happened to Adam’s series of HHS posters’ OOTP 2014 player’s developments? That was pretty fun but it felt like we were just getting started.
Humor me for a moment. The current CBA and the gushers of TV money pouring through are creating what amounts to a nuclear arms race that is probably going to hurt the game in unanticipated ways. The Dodgers start the year with $280M–before they sell a ticket or a beer, the Yankees, the Phillies, the Red Sox Rangers, etc etc have huge revenue streams that have to go somewhere. These clubs must be competitive to justify those fees to their carriers and advertisers. The old system of Type A free agents created all sorts of distortions, with mid-tier relief pitchers creating draft picks for their old teams. The new system, with the QO, haven’t been a drag on salaries at all, except for a tiny handful of players. And those contracts are ignored because they aren’t perceived as market. The more draft-picks you take from the high revenue teams, the more they have to go back into the free agent market and pay top dollar, and that drives all salaries up. So (and I realize this is counterintuitive) is tremendously imbalanced revenue sharing–which is about to get even more imbalanced in 2016 when the top 15 market teams no longer get anything from the central fund. So, what’s going to happen here is the midmarket and smaller market teams will have more money to drive up the prices of iffy players. $24M/3 for Phil Hughes? $30M/3 Scott Feldman? The “competitive balance” canard is just that–the CBA is designed to punish the big market teams and tamp down spending just to give a few smaller market teams the chance to make the playoffs. But, with the exception of Tampa, they don’t, because they either pocket the bucks or just don’t know how to run a team. The more you distort the market with tricky rules, the more teams use money to blast through those rules. And that deepens the spiral. If you are really serious about rationalizing salaries, stop taking draft picks and stop worrying about the Yankees (and the other superpowers). Even if they bought up every superstar in the league, it would be irrelevant. All it does is get them into the playoffs (maybe)
Mike L:
How about a limit on annual salaries? Say $18,000,000 maximum per player/any player? How about a minimum the KC Royals have to spend? Say $140,000,000 with even more revenue sharing? But,
you’re right, it’s out of control and their “solution” is probably going to fail.
PaulE, I’m not a fan of salary caps but I think I’d get rid of all the quirky little FA rules, leave in general revenue sharing, and skim the top 10-15% of league level revenue and put it in a bonus pool pot for the bottom fifth of the league. That’s actually a lot of money. Give them an optional minimum payroll spend. If they just want to bank their share of general revenue sharing, like Houston and Miami, the heck with it, and they forfeit the bonus pool share. If they want to invest in payroll, the bonus pool money is there for them–sort of a reverse luxury tax that would help them retain home grown talent once they hit free agency. That’s what the players want–they hate it when teams are run for simply the maximum profit. From MLB’s side, they should realize that all those quirky rules are actually creating scarcity and driving up prices.
PaulE. People might have to come up with a new team to beat up on with the minimum salary talk. The Royals projected payroll is 91 million, more than the Rays, Orioles, Twins, White Sox, Indians, A’s, Mariners, Astros, Mets (!!!), Marlins, Pirates, Brewers, Cubs (!!), amd Padres. And right around the same as the Braves and the Rockies.
From my review of the payrolls, I think we should a little more worried about the profit Tom Ricketts is turning on the North Side of Chicago rather than the one David Glass might be getting in KC.
Brent:
Forgive me for painting with such a broad brush and implying the Royals were the poster child for revenue sharing retention. It must stem from my days as a youth when the KC A’s served as a AAAA franchise of the NY Yankees 🙁
I have no idea with the amount of money that Ricketts, Glass, Loria, Henry, or the Steinbrenners make. What concerns me is how franchises can go through 5-year periods where they’re out of contention by June 15th. That’s a long summer – spend some money on a farm system or scouting if you don’t want to pay veterans an arm and a testicle. By the same token, $200,000,000 contracts for starting pitchers who break down and 30+ year old everyday players who don’t age well don’t help matters, either.
Management will figure it out – it certainly inures to their benefit to try
I misread the scroll at the bottom of the tv screen. I thought it said Yankees sign Tanana. Talk about high-priced, aging veterans!
Funny coincidence, Steven. BTW, through age 24:
— Tanaka in NPB: 1,315 IP; 5,324 batters faced
— Tanana in MLB: 1,321 IP; 5,393 batters faced
But just because Frank got hurt and lost his fastball at age 25, we can’t assume that Masahiro will do the same.
That is a splendid stat (and name!) comparison, John. You put a smile on this old Yankee-loather.
Steven, John, and Birtelcom, there’s nothing like the joy of wishful thinking. Personally, I’m hoping they exhume Trammaker to handle up the middle….
If Lou Whitaker comes out of retirement and plays a half season with the Yankees, does he get to go back on the HOF ballot after the 5 year waiting period?
I remember the speculation that Tony La Russa was going to have Mark McGwire pinch-hit at some point to delay his HOF clock. But once that clock has already come and gone I suspect it’s a stickier situation!
@ 23, Artie Z.
Jose Rijo was out of baseball after the 1995 season and got one HOF vote in 2001. Later he played for the Reds in 2001 and 2002, was listed in the 2008 HOF ballot but this tome didn´t get any votes.
If that was a rhetorical/sarcastic question, feel free to ignore my comment above.
@ 23, Artie Z.
Jose Rijo was out of baseball after the 1995 season and got one HOF vote in 2001. Later he played for the Reds in 2001 and 2002, was listed in the 2008 HOF ballot but this time he didn´t get any votes.
If that was a rhetorical/sarcastic question, feel free to ignore my comment above.
Lowest Babip, min 100 IP:
.190
Jim Hearn, 1950
_______________
Used a handful of times in relief by the Cardinals, the Giants plucked him off of waivers in July and immediately put him into the rotation in the middle of a pennant race.
He pitched three shutouts in his first five starts, and went on to lead the league with 5, while leading the league in ERA.
_______________________________________________
Nobody ever cracked .200 with more than 150 IP, but the leader sported a .203
in 273 IP
Dave McNally, 1968
His 0.842 is the 3rd lowest WHIP in the live ball era. Behind Pedro and Maddux.
(a few ticks ahead of Gibson the same year)
In 1950 Sal Maglie led the NL in ERA. Hearn had only 134 IP, less than the 154 minimum. BR incorrectly gave Hearn black ink on his home page.
There have been 10 IPHR by pitchers since 1945. Hearn has 2 of them.
Yes, I saw that.
Figured an expert would come along and clarify.
Mr Chester, maybe you can solve this riddle.
When I search for adjusted ops+ <=15, min 50 IP,
8 of the 18 seasons show up in 1946.
Two of the 18 are 1945.
The rest are modern closers.
Some great seasons, the lowest being Earl Caldwell at -10
Five xbh in 359 PA.
But is this a glitch, or is there something about 1945-1946 that makes these 10 jump to the top?
I’ve noticed that before also, Voomo, when I was constantly looking at OPS+ against for pitchers during Craig Kimbrel’s awesome 2012 season. Richard will have a better answer as to why.
Richard @29: good catch on Hearn. I see he doesn’t get black ink for his ERA+, nor is he credited with leading the league in ERA in any of the leaderboard tables. I’d email Sean Forman about the error.
Voomo:
First of all call me Richard, we are all friends here.
The results you found only go as far back as 1945, regardless of what the title of your PI run says.
I did a run for pitchers with OPS+ equal to or less than 40. There were 206 pitchers on the list. There were 27 such pitchers in 1945, 44 in 1946, 10 in 1947 and 11 in 1948. From that point on there were never more than 9 in any one season. Many seasons had 0 or 1 such pitchers. As of right now I do not have an answer for the wide variations.
I did a little more research. I checked the OPS+ values from the PI run against the pitcher’s sOPS+ value on his split page for just a few pitchers. For the pitchers in 1946 those values came nowhere near matching each other whereas the values for pitchers in recent years did come close to matching each other. I think the PI OPS+ values for the pitchers in the 1940s are incorrect. I’ll do some more checks tomorrow.
Richard, what is happening to create these microscopic OPS+ against #’s is these pitchers are being credited for XBH given up ONLY in the games where each type of hit given up is known. The game logs are incomplete.
Take Earl Caldwell, who tops the list with an OPS+ against of -10 in 1946. Look at Caldwell’s game logs for that year. He pitched in 39 games that year, but in only 7 of those games the type of hits he gave up are known. In those seven games, Caldwell surrendered 2 doubles and 1 triple (I’m not sure if the HR column is correct or not either).
Those are listed as his seasonal totals for doubles and triples given up for the whole year even though it’s not known how many 2Bs and 3Bs he gave up in the other 32 games.
Caldwell surrendered 60 hits in 1946, but by only looking at 7 games worth of doubles and triples surrendered, his seasonal totals suggest he gave up 55 singles, 2 HR, 2 doubles, and 1 triple, which isn’t right.
I ran a P-I search for lowest XBH allowed, 50+ IP minimum from 1945 on. Of the 25 pitchers to allow 5 XBH or less in a season, 13 of them pitched from 1945 to 1947. For example, Bob Lemon is credited with surrendering only one XBH in 94 innings in 1946.
It looks like there are also some incomplete game logs for certain pitchers for the 1948 season.
I believe that is what is causing the super-low OPS+ figures for that three or four-year period.
@37
bstar: Thanks for the update. I see from Caldwell’s game log that there is quite a bit of missing information. On his 1946 splits page there should be an “I” in his Season Totals chart. Curious facts about him. He pitched in the ML in 1928,then from 1935-1947 and finally from1945-1948. That gives him a 7-year hiatus and an 8-year hiatus.
Richard: the same anomalies exist for OPS+ for starters as well. If you go to more “More Stats” on a pitcher’s page, under “Batting Against – Pitching” there is a column called PAu, or Plate Appearances unknown.
The description for this stat reads, “..Note that for many stats (like pitcher SLG, 2B, 3B allowed, WPA, HR direction, etc) this will mean that the totals given are incomplete..”
Checking some other starters, it looks like there is incomplete game log data up until 1956 or so, not just 1945-48. I think if I ever look at OPS+ against in the future, I will look only at 1957-forward.
FWIW, I always thought the reason these ’40s pitchers were showing up on these OPS+ lists was because of weak wartime competition. Thanks to Voomo for prompting a closer investigation.