Circle of Greats: 1933 Balloting

148 Replies

This post is for voting and discussion in the 46th round of balloting for the Circle of Greats (COG).  This round is for voting on the group of players born in 1933.  Rules and lists are after the jump.

This round’s new group joins the holdovers from previous rounds to comprise the full set of players eligible to receive your votes in this round of balloting.

As usual, this new group of 1933-born players, in order to join the eligible list, must have played at least 10 seasons in the major leagues or generated at least 20 Wins Above Replacement (“WAR”, as calculated by baseball-reference.com, and for this purpose meaning 20 total WAR for everyday players and 20 pitching WAR for pitchers).

Each submitted ballot, if it is to be counted, must include three and only three eligible players.  The one player who appears on the most ballots cast in the round is inducted into the Circle of Greats.  Players who fail to win induction but appear on half or more of the ballots that are cast win four added future rounds of ballot eligibility (unless they appear on 75% or more of the ballots, in which case they win six added eligibility rounds).  Players who appear on 25% or more of the ballots cast, but less than 50%, earn two added future rounds of ballot eligibility.  Any other player in the top 9 (including ties) in ballot appearances, or who appears on at least 10% of the ballots, wins one additional round of ballot eligibility.

All voting for this round closes at 11:00 PM PST Thursday, February 13th, while changes to previously cast ballots are allowed until 11:00 PM PST, Tuesday, February 11th.

If you’d like to follow the vote tally, and/or check to make sure I’ve recorded your vote correctly, you can see my ballot-counting spreadsheet for this round here: COG 1933 Vote Tally.  I’ll be updating the spreadsheet periodically with the latest votes.  Initially, there is a row in the spreadsheet for every voter who has cast a ballot in any of the past rounds, but new voters are entirely welcome — new voters will be added to the spreadsheet as their ballots are submitted.  Also initially, there is a column for each of the holdover players; additional player columns from the new born-in-1933 group will be added to the spreadsheet as votes are cast for them.

Choose your three players from the lists below of eligible players.  The 13 current holdovers are listed in order of the number of future rounds (including this one) through which they are assured eligibility.  The new group of 1933 birth-year players are listed below in order of the number of seasons each played in the majors.  In total there are 16 players born in 1933 who met the “10 seasons played or 20 WAR” minimum requirement.

Holdovers:
Bob Gibson (eligibility guaranteed for 8 rounds)
Lou Whitaker (eligibility guaranteed for 8 rounds)
John Smoltz (eligibility guaranteed for 4 rounds)
Al Kaline (eligibility guaranteed for 3 rounds)
Sandy Koufax (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Craig Biggio (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Bobby Grich (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Kenny Lofton (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Juan Marichal (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Edgar Martinez (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Willie McCovey (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Ryne Sandberg (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Ron Santo (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)

Everyday Players (born in 1933, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Tito Francona
John Roseboro
Rocky Colavito
Jim Davenport
Al Spangler
Lenny Green
Norm Siebern
Jerry Lumpe
Gene Stephens
Lee Walls

Pitchers (born in 1933, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Orlando Pena
Ted Abernathy
Ken Johnson
Billy O’Dell
Bob Shaw
Frank Baumann

148 thoughts on “Circle of Greats: 1933 Balloting”

      1. Dr. Doom

        Wait… how did Santo lose 2 rounds of eligibility last round? He had two rounds. He lost one. He should have one left. See comment #3 (and subsequent discussion) in the 1934 Pt. 2 balloting for the details. I’m beginning to think there’s a Doug-based conspiracy to keep Santo out of the COG. Cardinals fan are you, Doug? 😉

        Reply ↓
          1. Dr. Doom

            I’m right about Santo having a round, or I’m right about your conspiring to keep him out of the COG?

            Or both?

            😉

          2. Doug Post author

            You’re right that I can’t count.

            Conspiracies? Not that I’m aware of. But, better keep close watch on the vote counting! You never know. 🙂

  3. oneblankspace

    My quick analysis of the last round.

    1. Clemente _ 62.50% (in)
    2. Gibson _ _ 53.13% (+4)
    3. Kaline _ _ 37.50% (+2)
    4. Koufax _ _ 23.44% (+1)
    5. Biggio _ _ 12.50% (+1)
    5. Lofton _ _ 12.50% (+1)
    5. Grich _ _ _12.50% (+1)
    5. Marichal _ 12.50% (+1)
    9. EMrtinez _ 10.94% (+1)
    9. McCovey _ _10.94% (+1)
    9. Sandberg _ 10.94% (+1)

    Reply ↓
  5. bells

    Whew, I think we’re over the hump, for now. Funny that 13 names on the ballot seems like a relatively small amount. The 1931 part 2 election is gonna be kinda nuts, but I’m thinking that with dropping Murray, Allen and Killebrew, the people who want to support bubble candidates will be able to spread out their votes so that we’re not quite stretched so thin. I tossed a strategic vote out there to keep Edgar on, which seemed to pay off as he stayed on by 1 vote. With him and Santo and Grich all on the bubble I’ll remain wary, but one of the latter two is in my top 3 anyway.

    Here are the candidates, ranked cumulatively on 3 measures – WAR, WAA+ and JAWS. A ranking of 3 means the candidate was first on each measure of all guys on the ballot, a ranking of 39 means he was 13th on each. (rankings in parentheses are for each of the 3 measures respectively)

    Kaline 4 (1 1 2)
    Gibson 5 (2 2 1)
    Grich 11 (4 3 4)
    Santo 12 (5 4 3)
    Whitaker 15 (3 5 7)
    Martinez 21 (7 6 8)
    Smoltz 24 (6 7 11)
    Lofton 25 (8 8 9)
    Sandberg 25 (9 10 6)
    Marichal 29 (12 12 5)
    McCovey 30 (11 9 10)
    Biggio 33 (10 11 12)
    Koufax 39 (13 13 13)

    I’ve given Santo the nod over Grich in the past. Both are on the bubble, so I have no problem switching if one looks more in danger, but for now:

    Gibson
    Kaline
    Santo

    Reply ↓
  7. mosc

    Santo should sail in via this exercise, bout time he gets some love. That said, he’s not good enough for my ballot:

    Koufax, Gibson, Kaline

    Reply ↓
    1. Mike HBC

      You know what? Screw it. I’m gonna rip half a page* right out of the book of all the voters I dislike. I’m changing my vote to Koufax, Smoltz, and Bob Shaw, who both made his only All-Star appearance and set the MLB record for balks in a game as a Brave.

      *I say “half a page” because at least I’m not voting for the 12th-best player on the ballot just to keep him around; plus, whichever obvious choice doesn’t make it this round undoubtedly will next round, so whatever.

      Reply ↓
          1. RJ

            I was just kidding around mosc (and poking a little fun at the concept of career WAR as gospel); I’m all for Koufax in the CoG. But everyone here has different opinions of who does and doesn’t belong, and if somebody doesn’t want to vote for him (or anyone else I think belongs) I’m not going to assume they are acting in bad faith.

        2. Mike HBC

          BOOM! Well-played, RJ. And I kept him on my ballot just because he’s Sandy Koufax. He can be on my ballot always and forever (except for 1931).

          Reply ↓
  13. Doug Post author

    I’m guessing we may get one or two votes thrown Rocky Colavito‘s way but probably not much else for the 1933 boys.

    So, while they’re on the ballot, some random musings on the other players born that year.
    – Tito Francona played in Oakland and Milwaukee in his final season, teams then managed by John McNamara and Dave Bristol, neither of whom was even two years Francona’s senior. Bet that hasn’t happened too often (at least, not recently).
    – John Roseboro was only the 6th catcher with 12 seasons of 100 games played. Ten of those seasons were with the Dodgers, a feat matched only by Mike Scioscia.
    – Similarly, Jim Davenport‘s 9 seasons of 100 games are the most for any Giant 3rd baseman.
    – Among all outfielders with 2500 PAs since 1920, Al Spangler has the 8th fewest extra-base hits
    – Another light-hitting outfielder, Lenny Green teamed with Harmon Killebrew and Bob Allison as the everyday outfielders for the 1962 Twins, each scoring 85+ runs that season, one of only 5 teams to do so in the 1961 to 1968 period (4 teams did this in 1969 alone, with expansion and the strike zone and pitching mound changes that season)
    – Norm Siebern and Joe Morgan are the only expansion era hitters to lead their league in walks while batting under .250 with 12 or fewer home runs
    – Siebern’s teammate in Kansas City, Jerry Lumpe had 7 consecutive seasons with between 40 and 59 walks. Only Brooks Robinson and Harvey Kuenn matched that feat in the 1957-67 period that Lumpe was active.
    – Gene Stephens‘ OPS+ of 58 for the 1952-53 seasons is the lowest since 1901 among outfielders with 300 PA aged 20 or younger
    – Lee Walls ranked 14th in the majors in strikeouts for 1956-59 … and 58th in Home Runs. His 5.9 SO to HR ratio was the highest among all players with 45+ HRs (Al Smith was second with a 5.2 ratio).

    And, the pitchers.
    – Orlando Pena‘s 12 wins in 1963 are the most for any expansion era pitcher when losing 20+ games in fewer than 35 starts
    – Ted Abernathy was the first pitcher (in 1965) to record 30 saves in a season. In 1968, he and Hoyt Wilhelm both logged 70+ games for the 3rd time, one season after Ron Perranoski had become the first pitcher to do this.
    – Owing to the 3-game playoff with the Dodgers, Billy O’Dell got the game 1 start for the Giants in the 1962 World Series. O’Dell became the fourth pitcher to strike out 8 Yankees in a WS opener. Three more hurlers have done the same since then but only O’Dell and Don Newcombe (in 1949) were on the losing side.
    – Ken Johnson led the majors in 1962 with a 3.87 SO/BB ratio. That was the first qualifying live-ball era season that a pitcher had an ERA+ under 100 and an ERA lower than his SO/BB ratio.
    – That same season (1962), Bob Shaw posted the 5th qualifying season of the 1960s with a BB/9 under 2 and a 5+ SO/9, matching the total number of such seasons in the 1950s
    – Frank Baumann led the AL in 1960 in ERA and ERA+. In the following 1961 expansion season, he led the AL in earned runs allowed, as his ERA more than doubled.

    Reply ↓
    1. Lawrence Azrin

      @19/Dave,

      Colavito was a very good player, probably a better HOF candidate amongst OFers than actual HOFers Chick Hafey, Lloyd Waner, Ross Youngs and Tommy McCarthy; about even with Heinie Manush and Hack Wilson. However, I don’t think he’s really close to being a HOFer, and even further away from the COG.

      If you neutralize Wilson’s stats to 1958/Cleveland, he doesn’t look a whole lot better than Colavito.

      Reply ↓
      1. Doug Post author

        Colavito was one of 7 players from 1958 to 1963 to reach 250 home runs before their age 30 season. That was more than all the players who had done so before 1958 (only Ruth, Gehrig, Foxx, Ott, Kiner and Snider).

        There have now been 36 players (including active players) who have done this, among which Colavito currently ranks 29th with 374 career homers (and will shortly be 30th after Miggy passes him sometime early next season).

        Reply ↓
        1. bstar

          I heard yesterday that when Ralph Kiner (RIP) retired he was 6th on the all-time HR list (behind Babe, Foxx, Ott, Gehrig, and Ballgame).

          Now he’s 74th.

          Reply ↓
    2. Richard Chester

      As far as I know Gene Stephens is one of 2 players with 3 hits in an inning. He did it on 6-18-53 while playing for the Red Sox. The other is Johnny Damon on 6-27-2003, also with the Red Sox,

      Reply ↓
      1. David Horwich

        According to baseball-almanac.com, on 9/6/1883 3 members of the Chicago White Stockings (i.e. the franchise now named the Cubs) achieved the feat, too – Tom Burns, Fred Pfeffer, and Ned Williamson.

        Reply ↓
  17. Dr. Doom

    So far, 14 ballots cast.

    On those 14, nine of them include exclusively three of the set Gibson, Kaline, Santo, Marichal, and Koufax. All 14 ballots include at least two from that list. McCovey, Smoltz, Whitaker, Lofton, and Sandberg round out the voting. I’m not suggesting it’ll necessarily be a “tight” election; it’s just interesting to look at it and see how top-heavy and competitive the ballot is right now.

    Reply ↓
    1. Stubby

      “All 14 ballots include at least two from that list.”

      Not so, Doc. Mine was among the first 14 ballots cast and I only had one from your top group–Gibson. My other votes went to Lofton and Whitaker.

      Reply ↓
      1. Dr. Doom

        Yikes. This is NOT my thread. My reading comprehension is mui mal right now. I’m just gonna blame it on a rough week at work and leave it at that.

        Reply ↓
  20. KalineCountry Ron

    The historically underrated + pre-eminent Rightfielder in A.L. history Al Kaline.

    Lou Whitaker.
    Bobby Grich

    Reply ↓
  23. Voomo Zanzibar

    Highest pitcher WAR, zero games started:

    8.2 Hiller
    8.1 Goose
    7.4 Eichhorn
    6.5 Sutter
    6.2 Kern
    6.2 ABERNATHY
    6.1 Radatz

    This works for any reliever, actually, not just zero GS.
    The lowest GS to top 6.2 is Luis Tiant’s 19 in 1972

    He registerd a 6.6 in 43 games.
    12 CG
    12 GF

    Reply ↓
    2. Voomo Zanzibar

      Higest ERA+, 100+ IP:

      328 Sutter (107.1)
      299 Abernathy (106.1)
      291 Pedro (217)
      283 Hiller (125.1)
      282 Dutch Leonard (224.2)
      268 Red Munger (121)

      Reply ↓
      1. Voomo Zanzibar

        Yes, Richard, made that mistake.
        I’m doing this with a 101 fever. Sorry.

        Also that last list, before Red Munger there is:

        272 Ferdie Schupp
        271 Maddux

        Reply ↓
        1. Voomo Zanzibar

          Schupp’s 0.90 in 1916 (140 IP) is the lowest era with more than 75 IP.

          His 4.4 WAR that season also exceeds his career WAR (4.3)

          Reply ↓
          1. bstar

            Tim Keefe had an 0.86 ERA in 1880 in 105 IP. His ERA+ was 293, #1 all-time.

            It looks like NL clubs played around 82 games in 1880, so Keefe’s season qualifies since he exceeded the 1 inning per team game minimum.

          2. David Horwich

            One thing to note about Keefe’s record is that slightly over half the runs scored in the NL in 1880 were unearned – his RAA was 2.31. I don’t know if anyone’s ever calculated RAA+, but if so I would guess Keefe would no longer be the record-holder.

            As for Ferdie Schupp – not only did he put up 4.4 WAR in 1916, he followed that up with 4.5 WAR in 1917 – and yet still ended up with less career WAR than either of those two seasons taken individually. Yes, he was pretty terrible in his career except for those 2 seasons.

  27. JasonZ

    BStar-

    Another nugget from Kiner’s Korner…

    From 1931-1997 the top single season
    home run total in the National League was
    54, by Kiner in 1949.

    Ralph Kiner was one of two NL players to exceed 50 homers twice during the above 66 year span.

    Some chap named Mays is the other.

    Reply ↓
    1. bstar

      Jason, I was thinking about the twice-over-50-HR thing two nights ago and in my mind I decided it was Johnny Mize and Mays who did it. Thanks for the correction!

      Reply ↓
  37. opal611

    For the 1933 election, I’m voting for:
    -Ryne Sandberg
    -Edgar Martinez
    -John Smoltz

    Other top candidates I considered highly (and/or will consider in future rounds):
    -Biggio
    -Gibson
    -Whitaker
    -Grich
    -Lofton
    -Santo
    -McCovey
    -Kaline

    Reply ↓
  40. Josh

    Bob Gibson, Al Kaline, Juan Marichal

    I may have to start throwing some votes Smoltz’s way, he’s starting to lose eligibility and if he doesn’t get 10% soon he’s gonna get kicked out in 1931 part 2.

    Reply ↓
  46. oneblankspace

    Now I am ready to vote.

    CBiggio
    BGibson

    and the Detroit outfielder who led the 1961 Tigers with 45 HR

    RColavito

    Reply ↓
  54. Doug Post author

    47 Votes have been cast as of this post, and it’s a two-horse race with Gibson leading Kaline 31 to 29.

    Marichal, Koufax, Santo, and Whitaker will advance to the next ballot and not lose any future eligibility (or may even pick up an extra round)
    Biggio, Lofton and Grich should survive again.
    McCovey and Sanberg are on the bubble, and Martinez is almost there.
    Smoltz has been using up his eligibility rounds, and is in danger of doing it again.
    Colavito needs some more love.

    Reply ↓
    2. Dr. Doom

      So, through 54 ballots (plus mosc’s vote change a minute or so ago), if my math is right (and you REALLY might not want to believe it, if you’ve been following my various snafus on this thread) is as such:

      Gibson – 35
      Kaline – 33
      Koufax – 15
      Marichal – 12
      Santo – 11
      Whitaker – 9
      Grich – 8
      Biggio – 7

      … and in the “safe for now” category:

      Smoltz – 6
      Martinez – 6
      Lofton – 6
      McCovey – 6

      … and in the “not so safe for now” category:

      Sandberg – 5
      Colavito – 2
      Bob Shaw – 1

      It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

      Reply ↓
      1. mosc

        Man, I wish I could crash that 9-person tie at the end to send a few guys to the redemption round. This is what I get for voting early…

        Reply ↓
  56. Bryan O'Connor

    Most Wins Above Average, excluding negative seasons:

    Kaline 58.6
    Gibson 50.0
    Grich 43.6
    Santo 43.3
    Whitaker 42.7
    Martinez 41.3
    Smoltz 40.1
    Lofton 39.3
    McCovey 38.9
    Sandberg 38.8
    Biggio 36.3
    Marichal 32.7
    Koufax 32.3
    Colavito 24.2

    Kaline. Gibson. Martinez.

    Reply ↓
  62. mosc

    Since it’s clearly a two horse race, I will change my vote to remove who I see as the #2 guy and give some love where I should.

    Kaline was really good but I don’t tie him with any exemplary skill or longevity. I don’t think his 152 RFIELD is correct, I would put it more at about 60. That’s nothing personal against Kaline, I routinely complain about the highs and lows of rfield from corner outfielders. I disagree with both.

    Gibson has two years eclipsing 10 WAR and wasn’t far off in the third year either. He represents along with Koufax the true heights a pitcher can achieve. His overall career was better that Koufax though I would argue Koufax had a better peak. WAR is tough on ace pitchers who have a pitcher’s park for a home stadium. Gibson’s stadiums though were pretty neutral, give or take. I don’t have a problem with Gibson’s WAR at all and valuing peak highly just makes him look even better.

    Gibson, over Kaline.

    New ballot please:

    Gibson, Koufax, Santo

    Reply ↓
  63. bstar

    Al Kaline’s arm alone was worth 60 runs, according to Total Zone. Routfield for Kaline (TZ’s arm metric to measure assists and suppression of baserunner advances, converted to runs saved):

    RF…+55
    CF….+4
    LF….+1

    Reply ↓
    1. mosc

      and I just don’t agree with stats like that. 55 runs saved from an outfield arm is crazy. Your shortstop reacting 10ms faster probably has a larger impact.

      Reply ↓
      1. brp

        The guy played 22 years… it’s not crazy to think a guy with a good arm could throw out maybe 5-10 more baserunners than a guy with a Johnny Damon arm, is it? We’re talking less than 3 runs saved per year, which is still minor. Plus in another post on this blog it was pointed out how much more often guys were thrown out on the basepaths in prior generations, so Kaline would have had more chances to gun guys down than a modern player.

        I’m not a big fan of most defensive stats either, and probably never will be, because there’s just not a great way to account for ballpark differences and shifts and outfield alignments and a host of other factors. That said, 55 runs saved over 22 years doesn’t strike me as “crazy.”

        Reply ↓
      2. bstar

        Kaline had 170 outfield assists. That’s over 5 per year. What was an average number of assists for a RF in the ’60? I don’t know, but it’s a pretty safe bet that Kaline was above average here.

        Baserunners had 2189 opportunities to advance after a single, double, or fly out on Kaline in right. They advanced only 1054 times, for a 48.1 hold%. The MLB average hold% was 41.3, which would have been 904 holds. So Kaline suppressed (1054 – 904) = 150 more baserunner advances than the average right fielder. That’s about 7 per year.

        Kaline also only committed 10 throwing errors in 22 years.

        Add all that up. That can’t equal 3 runs saved a year?

        Reply ↓
  64. paget

    Gibson, McCovey, Smoltz.

    Having a hard time wrapping my head around Killebrew disappearing from the list. I wonder what’s going to happen when Kiner rolls around. Similar kinds of players; Kiner has the stronger peak, Killebrew more longevity. Both belong in the COG as far as I’m concerned. Kiner in particular being a no-brainer. But maybe that’s a conversation for another time (as in when Kiner comes up).

    Reply ↓
      1. Paul E

        Mosc:

        Kiner (career) 1,472G 6,256PA 149OPS+
        Mr. May(76-85) 1,466G 6,239PA 140OPS+

        This is about the only place where Kiner would have an edge. Fielding, throwing, and base running were not exactly Ralph’s strengths

        Reply ↓
      2. paget

        @121
        Mosc, you and I are both on record as very, very big Winfield fans. Personally, I think it’s bonkers that he’s not in the COG. dWAR underrates him in the field and oWAR doesn’t take into account nearly enough the fact that he played his home games for a decade in a park that *devoured* power guys who hit from the right side.

        Better or worse than Kiner? I dunno, that’s not so much a head-to-head that I’ve considered. Both power hitters sure, but different kinds of players. In a weird way perhaps, I see Kiner as the Koufax of everyday players. And I like both of them for the COG (haven’t voted Koufax yet, but I do think he belongs).

        Reply ↓
        1. Michael Sullivan

          I agree Kiner is the closest thing there is to the Koufax of everyday players.

          His WAR total is well behind our other inductees, and probably wouldn’t even be enough for the hall of stats if he’d done it over 20 years.

          But while he played, as a batter, he was a monster almost at williams/gehrig level for 6 of his 10 years. If you support Koufax for CoG, I think you have to take a good look at Kiner as well.

          OTOH, Koufax really *was* at Pedro/Seaver peak level for his 6 year stretch, while Kiner wasn’t *quite* as good as the best ever for his peak. But for that stretch, he was better than the best 6 years of most of the people we’re putting in the COG for offensive prowess.

          Personally, I’m going to pass on both, but I can see the argument for either.

          Compared to winfield? Well his peak is much better. Ralph accumulated more WAA in 6 years than Winfield did his whole career.

          Winfield was similar to a lot players on our holdover list in terms of total career value. I don’t think it’s a travesty that he’s not in COG, but I wouldn’t complain if he’d gotten in. Personally I have him in my 10-15 best that I think fall just short, along with Killebrew and Murray who recently dropped out.

          Reply ↓
  65. KalineCountry Ron

    Kaline’s only weakness as a player was his inability to stay healthy. His all out play cost him the equivalent of 450 games lost during his prime and career.
    This is why many of his seasons fell short of the ‘special numbers’ of 30 plus homers, 100 plus Runs and 100 Plus RBI. Kaline was always banging/breaking a knee, hip, hand, arm, shoulder, collarbone and missing 20 to the 62 games in that 1962 season that he would have in all likelihood had a 40 homer season. As it was on May 26, 1962 he was leading the American League in the Triple Crown, and eventually had 29 homers and 94 RBI in 100 games. 1961 was the last season Kaline played in more than 150 games.
    Saber stats show Kaline as an exemplary Rightfielder defensively and as an offensive force when batting. Great plate discipline, good power to all fields, and a career that for most of it played, he ran on the side of his foot from a foot deformity and osteomyletis, the same bone disease that the great Mick suffered with.
    Kaline won the one batting title and finished second in odd numbered years from 59/61/63, won 2 (at the time prestigious) Sporting News Player of the Year Awards, 10 Gold Gloves and would have probably won in 55 and 56 if they had started the award sooner, led the league in Slugging, and OPS in 59, and was always in the top 3/5/10 in most all offensive categories despite the games missed.
    and yet some base fans think of him as average?? still looking at the counting stats.
    I will take a team of Kaline’s from his playing years over anyone not named Aaron, Mays, Mantle, and Frank Robinson.

    Reply ↓
    1. bstar

      Kaline does seem star-crossed as far as HR totals go. He missed the 400-HR club by one homer and that 399 total is the most for any player without a 30-HR season. But that’s offset by Kaline just getting over the magical 3,000-hit mark (3,007).

      Ron: Kaline’s SABR bio says he missed 594 games due to injury in his career.

      Reply ↓
      1. Hartvig

        I have a vague recollection of reading somewhere that at least part of Kaline’s injury problems stemmed from a foot or ankle problem of some sort. I don’t know if it was something congenital or an injury itself. I tend to be aware of this because 3 or 4 weeks ago I re-broke a small bone in my foot for maybe the 8 or 9th time since it first happened in football practice 40 odd years ago. If I tape the heck out of it and stay off it as much as possible for a couple of days and then kind of walk on the side of the foot it’s usually fine within a week to 10 days. But if I am on my feet a fair amount during that time I also start to find that my other knee and sometimes my back start to give me problems. I don’t know if most or even any of Kaline’s injuries stemmed from something like this but I certainly can see how it would be possible.

        Reply ↓
      2. Richard Chester

        Most HR by a player without a 30 HR season:

        Al Kaline……..399
        Harold Baines….384
        R. Henderson…..297
        Craig Biggio…..291
        Paul O’Neill…..281
        Brian Downing….275
        B. Robinson……268
        Joe Morgan…….268
        Geo. Hendrick….267
        Tim Wallach……260
        Derek Jeter……256(and counting)
        Vada Pinson……256
        John Olerud……255
        Kirk Gibson……255

        Reply ↓
        1. Lawrence Azrin

          Most HR by a player without a 35 HR season:

          Eddie Murray.. 504
          .
          .
          .
          Cal Ripken…. 431
          .
          .
          .
          Al Kaline….. 399

          So which is more impressive, Kaline’s feat above, or Murray’s feat?

          Reply ↓
          1. bstar

            Most HR without a 50-HR season:

            1. Hank Aaron – 755
            2. Frank Robinson – 586
            3. Harmon Killebrew – 573

            I’m going with Aaron’s feat here as more impressive than Murray’s or Kaline’s.

          2. mosc

            Easy. Divide total by season, get a feel for the multiplier: The guy who consistently delivered the power he did have year in and year out:

            399/30
            504/35
            755/50

            Hank still wins easily.

    2. John Autin

      One thing about Al Kaline that seems to have completely escaped the mass perception: He was a terrific clutch hitter.

      Kaline batted .297 overall, but .322 in high-leverage situations. That increase of .025 ranks 4th among 235 known players with least 1,500 high-leverage PAs. His BA for that split ranked 7th straight up (not comparing to the player’s overall BA). And he ranked 16th in the total of such PAs. That’s a lot of clutch production.

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    3. Paul E

      KCRon:

      WAR 1955 – 1967. Obviously, cherry-picked, but some pretty good company. Kaline is aged 20-32 – if 13 years of peak performance isn’t enough of a representation of a guy’s talent, I don’t know what would suffice…..

      1 Willie Mays 117.7
      2 Hank Aaron 102.8
      3 Mickey Mantle 87.1
      4 Eddie Mathews 77.5
      5 Frank Robinson 76.9
      6 Al Kaline 75.1
      7 Ernie Banks 62.8
      8 Ken Boyer 62.5
      9 Roberto Clemente 61.3

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    4. Steven

      In 1967, he was having a great year, too, when in the middle of that classic pennant race, he lost a bout with the water cooler. Could have deprived Yaz of the Triple Crown, and the Red Sox of the pennant. McLain had a little injury trouble near the end of that season, too.

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  68. oneblankspace

    My voting line has disappeared from the spreadsheet — no, it’s up between brp and the Bryan’s . My vote from this round has been completed correctly so I won’t repeat it here.

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  69. brp

    Gibson to win
    Grich and Lofton to ensure they stay alive.

    Alluding to MikeHBC’s comments @70, the 12th-best player on our current ballots is likely to be better than any option in numerous birth years to come, which is why a lot of us are OK with the big holdover list.

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  71. Lawrence Azrin

    Strategic voting all the way:

    – Ryan Sandberg
    – Craig Biggio
    – Edgar Martinez

    I thought about a shout-out to Colavito, but as I said in #22, he’s not really HOF-worthy, let alone OG.

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  72. Dr. Doom

    Okay, I know the spreadsheet is up-to-date, because Doug was just doing it and I was watching… it was weird.

    Anyway, through 58 ballots cast:

    Bulletproof
    1. Gibson – 39
    2. Kaline – 35

    Safe
    3. Koufax – 15
    4. Santo – 12
    5. Marichal – 11

    Safe, barring major vote-changes
    6. Grich – 9
    6. Whitaker – 9
    8. Biggio – 8
    9. Lofton – 7
    9. Martinez – 7
    9. Sandberg – 7

    Safe for now, by the 10% rule
    12. Smoltz – 6
    12. McCovey – 6

    Nope
    14. Colavito – 2
    15. Shaw – 1

    If three more ballots are cast, none name McCovey, and no one changes a non-McCovey vote to a vote for him, he will fall off the ballot. Smoltz would change to having 3 rounds of eligibility left, instead of his current 4.

    One more “light” round, and then cometh the Round of Death!

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  73. David Horwich

    It looks like paget’s vote at #102 hasn’t been tallied yet, which puts Gibson at 40, and moves McCovey and Smoltz into a 5-way tie for 9th with 7.

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  77. bstar

    I THINK Kenny Lofton now has 9 votes, so he’s safe. I will withdraw my Lofton vote and give it Koufax in hopes that will get Sandy over 25%.

    Doug: please change my vote to Kaline, Koufax, Biggio.

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  78. Doug Post author

    The deadline for changing votes has passed. But still two days left to vote if you haven’t already done so.

    With 62 votes cast, Gibson is leading Kaline 31-28.

    At this point, anyone with 8 votes looks like he will remain on the ballot and/or not lose any remaining eligibility. That includes all of the holdovers except Smoltz and Sandberg, who each need just one more vote to get to 8.

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    1. Hartvig

      Smoltz & Sandberg would also not lose any eligibility/stay on the ballot as long as there are no more than 8 more ballots cast as well since that would mean they were on 10% or more of the ballots cast. We’ve only done that once in recent history (1935) and prior to that you have to go way back to the 1957 election of Larry Walker.

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  79. Michael Sullivan

    Ok, I’m going with Kaline as my pick for this election, by a nose over Gibson, even though it looks like Gibby will get in:

    I can’t do too much to effect things at the bottom it looks like, except give some insurance to players I want to.

    But if we can get a couple more votes for Santo after mine, he could hit 25%, so I’ll shout that out for any new voters to consider:

    Kaline, Santo, Grich

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  81. RJ

    Well this is odd, everyone is safe with plenty of time to spare. I’ll invest my vote into those who could gain extra eligibility then, as well as picking Gibson for the win:

    Santo, Koufax, Gibson.

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    1. David Horwich

      Sandberg is still at slight risk – if the number of votes were to reach 71 without him getting another vote he’d be out.

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  83. Voomo Zanzibar

    A bit of errata at the end of this thread:
    ________

    The most hits in a season by a Catcher (at least 50% of games at position):

    203 Joe Torre
    201 Mike Piazza
    199 Ivan Rod

    _______

    The most hits in a season by a 3rd Baseman:

    240 Boggs
    231 Lindstrom (twice)
    230 Joe Torre

    Reply ↓

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