This post is for voting and discussion in the 58th round of balloting for the Circle of Greats (COG). This round adds to the ballot those players born in 1924. Rules and lists are after the jump.
This week’s new group joins the holdovers from previous rounds to comprise the full set of players eligible to receive your votes this round. As usual, the new group of 1924-born players, in order to join the eligible list, must have played at least 10 seasons in the major leagues or generated at least 20 Wins Above Replacement (“WAR”, as calculated by baseball-reference.com, and for this purpose meaning 20 total WAR for everyday players and 20 pitching WAR for pitchers).
Each submitted ballot, if it is to be counted, must include three and only three eligible players. The one player who appears on the most ballots cast in the round is inducted into the Circle of Greats. Players who fail to win induction but appear on half or more of the ballots that are cast win four added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Players who appear on 25% or more of the ballots cast, but less than 50%, earn two added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Any other player in the top 9 (including ties) in ballot appearances, or who appears on at least 10% of the ballots, wins one additional round of ballot eligibility.
All voting for this round closes at 11:00 PM EDT Thursday, May 22, while changes to previously cast ballots are allowed until 11:00 PM EDT Tuesday, May 20.
If you’d like to follow the vote tally, and/or check to make sure I’ve recorded your vote correctly, you can see my ballot-counting spreadsheet for this round here: COG 1924 Round Vote Tally. I’ll be updating the spreadsheet periodically with the latest votes. Initially, there is a row in the spreadsheet for every voter who has cast a ballot in any of the past rounds, but new voters are entirely welcome — new voters will be added to the spreadsheet as their ballots are submitted. Also initially, there is a column for each of the holdover candidates; additional player columns from the new born-in-1924 group will be added to the spreadsheet as votes are cast for them.
Choose your three players from the lists below of eligible players. The 13 current holdovers are listed in order of the number of future rounds (including this one) through which they are assured eligibility, and alphabetically when the future eligibility number is the same. The new group of 1924 birth-year guys are listed below in order of the number of seasons each played in the majors, and alphabetically among players with the same number of seasons played.
Holdovers:
Sandy Koufax (eligibility guaranteed for 12 rounds)
John Smoltz (eligibility guaranteed for 5 rounds)
Duke Snider (eligibility guaranteed for 4 rounds)
Edgar Martinez (eligibility guaranteed for 3 rounds)
Whitey Ford (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Kenny Lofton (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Willie McCovey (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Minnie Minoso (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Richie Ashburn (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Craig Biggio (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Harmon Killebrew (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Eddie Murray (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Ryne Sandberg (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Everyday Players (born in 1924, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Gil Hodges
Sherm Lollar
Ted Kluszewski
Earl Torgeson
Ed Fitz Gerald
Bobby Avila
Irv Noren
Al Rosen
Charlie Silvera
Pitchers (born in 1924, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Hal Brown
Warren Hacker
Hal Jeffcoat
Alex Kellner
Turk Lown
Hal Jeffcoat is listed here as a pitcher, although he could just as easily be listed as an everyday player. He was an outfielder for the Cubs for six seasons, from 1948 through 1953, Chicago’s starting center fielder for much of that time. Then with the start of the 1954 season he switched, cold turkey, to pitching, and was a solid performer on the mound for the next six seasons, with the Cubs, then the Reds and finally the Cardinals in his last few months in the majors. I’ve listed him here as a pitcher because his WAR suggests he was more valuable on the mound — pretty much just a replacement player as an outfielder but a cut above that as a pitcher. Each on its own, neither his stint as a hitter nor his stint as a pitcher would get him on the COG ballot, but by combining the two Jeffcoat stitched together a long major league career.
Martinez, Lofton, Snider
John Smoltz, Edgar Martinez, Kenny Lofton
Ashburn; koufax, snider
Koufax, McCovey, Smoltz
Biggio, Sandberg, Edgar
Koufax, Snider, McCovey
If the early votes are any indication, this is going to be a crazy round.
And so will the next two (three – 1922 part 1 and 2?) rounds. If I’ve done my searches correctly, Hoyt Wilhelm leads all players born in 1922 or 1923 with 50.1 WAR. Ralph Kiner and Larry Doby lead position players with over 49 WAR.
At least in 1921 we get what should be a very simple election (Spahn).
Yes, there will be three more rounds after this one (1923 and the 2-part 1922) with no top-shelf new candidates appearing on the ballot. So the holdover list should get whittled down considerably, and I expect we’ll have a series of close elections.
On the other hand, all three of the guys you mention have enough specialness that they could end up on the holdover ballot, despite being well behind most of our guys in WAR. Kiner had a monster peak, accumulating all his WAR in only 10 years. He’s like the Koufax of batters. Doby is like Minoso, a very early color line crosser who you can debate how many good seasons he probably lost to segregation, and how much what he had to put up with affected his later career. And Wilhelm is probably the #2 reliever in MLB history. Rivera sailed in with 57 WAR, although if you buy Adam Darowski’s adjustments for relievers, he’s in the same territory as our best holdovers and many of our previous choices with a 130 hall rating. Wilhelm gets a 107, which typically is not enough, but some may feel that a rating which leaves only 1 reliever in the COG isn’t giving them enough credit. If you have to put 2 in, Wilhelm is IMO the next guy (and the only one worth seriously considering).
So all three of these guys have cases that a typical 50 WAR player doesn’t, though I’m not sure whether any of them is really strong enough to go in over the alternatives.
I’m considering voting for Wilhelm entirely on the argument you’ve made (pretty reasonable choice as #2 reliever in MLB history).
Most Wins Above Average, excluding negative seasonal totals:
Martinez 41.3
Smoltz 40.1
Lofton 39.3
Snider 39.2
McCovey 38.9
Sandberg 38.8
Biggio 36.3
Ashburn 33.9
Murray 33.7
Killebrew 33.0
Koufax 32.3
Minoso 30.6
Ford 29.3
Hodges 19.1
Smoltz, Martinez, Minoso
Snider
Lofton
E Martinez
Koufax
Smoltz
McCovey
Martinez, Lofton, Snider.
Seeing as nobody I vote for seems to get elected anymore, I just keep repeating myself
Smoltz, Ford, Koufax
Murray, Biggio, McCovey
Lofton, Sandberg, and Martinez
Smoltz, Edgar, Koufax
Koufax
Smoltz
Martinez
Sandy Koufax, John Smoltz, Craig Biggio
Snider, Murray, Sandberg
Sandy Koufax; Whitey Ford; Willie McCovey
Snider, Edgar, Gil Hodges. Why Hodges? Because my mother would haunt me if I didn’t.
Biggio, Koufax, Ford.
Koufax, Martinez, Snider
Smoltz, Lofton, Snider
Ford, Biggio, Killebrew
Ford, McCovey, Murray
Sandy Koufax, Richie Ashburn, Edgar Martinez
Snider should have 4 rounds of eligibility.
Indeed — thanks goodness for Horwich. My holdover notes say 4 for the Duke, but that didn’t make it to the posted list. Thanks to David, though, it’s fixed now.
Eddie, Edgar, and the Duke
I’m on the fence about Ashburn & Minoso- I voted for Minoso in the last round because I felt he needed time on the ballot for people to give him due consideration. That said I don’t think either of them are surefire COGer’s or in the top 3 on the ballot.
A few very good newcomers but none that are HOF worthy much less COG.
Snider, McCovey, Sandberg
but this might be the first time in a long, long time when I change my vote at the deadline.
I think both Minoso and Ashburn have benefited from good timing – if either of them had been born in 1931 or 1934 or ’35 I doubt they’d have made it to a second round of voting.
Once again, Sandy, Duke, and Smoltzie.
Some random tidbits on this ballot’s new additions.
– Gil Hodges’ 9 consecutive seasons (1949-57) with 20 to 29 doubles is the majors’ longest such streak, tied with Harry Hooper (1911-19), Luis Aparicio (1964-72), Doug Rader (1969-77), Ken Griffey (1979-87) and Tom Brunansky (1983-91), with Brunansky the only one of those six to bookend that streak with two 30-double seasons.
– Sherm Lollar is the youngest catcher with 2 runs scored in his first career post-season game (1947), edging out Del Rice who had set the mark for the Cardinals the previous season.
– Ted Kluszewski’s 171 home runs led the majors for 1953-56. He also placed 2nd in RBI for the same period.
– Earl Torgeson was the first NL first baseman with 120 runs in his only 100 run season. Only two others have matched that feat since. Who are they?
– Among AL catchers with one season of 400 PAs, Ed Fitz Gerald is the oldest (age 32) to also have a single season batting .300 (min. 150 PA).
– Bobby Avila is the only AL batting champion to lead his league in sacrifice hits in the same season. Who is the only NL player to do the same?
– Among players to qualify for the batting title with 2.5 WAR in each of the first two seasons of a career, only Irv Noren and teammate Jerry Coleman never had another season with 500 PA, until joined by what 21st century player?
– Al Rosen’s 37 home runs in 1950 are the most in a rookie season aged 25 or older.
– Charlie Silvera was the first 10-year position player to never have a season of 150 PAs. Four others have since matched that feat. Who is the only player to do this who was not a catcher?
– For 1959-61, Hal Brown was the majors’ only pitcher to post 3 seasons of 150 IP with BB/9 under 2.00 and WHIP under 1.200.
– Warren Hacker is the only NL pitcher to follow a qualifying season of WHIP under 1.000 with a season allowing 35 home runs. Who are the only two AL pitchers to do this?
– Hal Jeffcoat, Smoky Joe Wood and 19th century star Bob Caruthers are the only players with 200 games pitching and 200 games at an outfield position. Caruthers is the only one of those three to play both positions regularly through most of his career.
– Among post-war pitchers, Alex Kellner is the career and single season leader in starts of 6+ IP allowing 9 or more runs.
– Turk Lown is the only post-war pitcher with consecutive seasons (1956-57) leading his league (and the majors) in Games Finished while posting an ERA+ below 110.
Over the last 100 years, the only lefties to win 20 games as a rookie: Alex Kellner on this ballot, plus Tom Browning, Harvey Haddix, Gene Bearden, Cliff Melton.
Great tidbits post as always, Doug — with some excellent embeddded quizzes.
For the Charlie Silvera question I found three catchers, Corky Miller, Randy Knorr and Matt Sinatro, and one position player, John Wehner.
During Silvera’s tenure, 1948-1957, he had the third highest BA for catchers with 500+ PA. His .282 mark trailed only Yogi and Smoky. The Yankee game has just started so I will not be answering any questions for a while.
John Wehner is the answer to the Silvera question.
The Yankee game has just started? Ahem, you mean the Mets game.
Working between innings of what I shall tactfully refer to as the game between the two NY teams, the answer to the Warren Hacker question is Catfish Hunter and Luis Tiant.
Apropos of the NY,NY game: How about top pitchers whose major league debut came in a start against a starter also making his major league debut? Gaylord Perry, Denny McLain, Dizzy Trout….
Starter Denny McClain debuted against starter Fritz Ackley on 9-21-63. They each got a hit in that game in their second at-bats. On 9-25-44 starter Charlie Gassaway of the Cubs debuted against Charlie Ripple of the Phils who was making his debut also as a starter. They each got a hit in their first at-bats.
J.R. Richard, Bob Forsch, Joaquin Benoit.
Sammy Ellis was the opposing starter in the Gaylord Perry game.
Down a notch, Rick Porcello and Ricky Romero opposed each other in their career debuts.
I should have explained that my post #48 was for opposing debuting starters who also had a base hit in that game.
Correct answer, Richard.
Catfish also went the other way, following a 35 HR season with a WHIP under 1.000 season. Don Newcombe is the only other pitcher to do that, and he led the NL in WHIP in both of those seasons.
A bit more on Al Rosen.
His 37 home runs as a rookie was the most for a 3rd baseman, breaking Harlond Clift’s record from 1938.
A few years later (1953) – he and Eddie Mathews became the first 3rd baseman to hit 40+ home runs in a season. That same season he set long-standing marks for 3rd baseman in OPS, OPS+, Total bases and RBIs. Brett bested his OPS and OPS+ numbers in 1980, Vinny Castilla took the Total base crown in 1998, and it wasn’t till 2007 that A-rod broke Rosen’s RBI record.
Nice addition, David.
Thanks,
Rosen’s 37 HRs in 1950 was the AL rookie record until someone named McGwire hit 49 in 1987. It is still the second highest total.
The NL record, by the way, was set in 1930 by Wally Berger at 38 dingers, a figure tied by Frank Robinson in 1956.
If Barry Bonds had been thinking as a youth the way he thought in his thirties, who knows, the NL rookie record might now be 50.
One more note re: Al Rosen…he still holds the single season WAR record at 3rd base. In fact, he’s the only 3rd baseman with a 10+ WAR season. Of course Brett likely would have smashed the record in 1980 had he stayed healthy, but he obviously didn’t.
I found 3 first basemen with 120+ runs in their only 100+ run season, but one of them is an AL player: Derrek Lee, Felipe Alou, and Rod Carew.
Lee and Alou are the correct answer to the question of who matched Torgeson’s feat of 120 runs in a lone 100 run season as an NL first baseman.
Who is Jackie Robinson? He led the NL in AVG and SH in 1949 (Bobby Avila question).
And who is Rocco Baldelli? He had 2.5 WAR and qualified for the batting title in his first two seasons, but never had a season with 500+ PAs again (Irv Norven question).
HAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!! “And who is Rocco Baldelli?” is the GREATEST question anyone has ever asked on this site! If you ask one random SI article from his rookie year, he’s the next DiMaggio (that’s slightly exaggerating; here’s the article: http://www.cnnsi.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1028831/index.htm. That, unfortunately, didn’t work out too well for him. His WAR numbers his first three total years (he missed ’05 due to injury) are pretty good: baseball-reference has him at 2.9, 3.0, and 3.2 WAR ’03-’06. As it turns out, there is some value in an average-hitting, average-fielding CF. But that value is… you know… average. Thanks for THAT trip down memory lane.
Right and right, Artie Z.
The Ted Kluszewski stat that’s most amazing isn’t that he hit 171 HR to lead the NL in that four-year stretch. It’s that he did so striking out only 140 times TOTAL… or as Mark Reynolds calls it, a good half-season’s worth (kidding).
Klu is one of three players with HR > SO for 4 or more consecutive seasons. Joe D, (5 seasons) and Bill Dickey (4 seasons) are the other two.
RC,
You neglected to mention that Klu matched the Clipper’s mark of 5 straight seasons (albeit with 6 HR and 5 SO in an abbreviated 5th season).
Good call, Dr. Doom, although those 171 HR led the majors, not just the NL, and were 34 more (about a season’s worth) than AL leader Mickey Mantle.
Ken Griffey, Sr. also had 9 consecutive seasons (1979-1987) of 20 to 29 doubles.
Thanks Richard,
I updated the comment.
A little off-topic but related to Hodges’ 9 consecutive seasons of 20 to 29 doubles, Nellie Fox had 15 consecutive seasons of 11 to 18 SO. No one else has done that, not even pitchers.
Gil Hodges, Lofton, Ashburn
Gil Hodges absolutely belongs in the Hall of Fame. I know the feeling here is that that’s a lower bar than the COG. But I believe the COG also exists to correct the “mistakes” of the Hall (in both directions). Gil was absolutely one of the greats. A clutch hitter and a great fielding first baseman. I’m not much for the numbers game; I know what I saw with my own eyes. I only saw Gil at the tail end of his career and still you could tell he was greatness personified. And its always a plus when you manage a World Series winning team that was, let’s face it, not nearly as good top to bottom as the team they beat.
Here are the top WAR numbers for first basemen over the quarter-century immediately preceding the season Hodges took the Mets to first place and a championship.
Most WAR, 1944-1968, Among Players 50% of Whose Games Played were at First Base:
Gil Hodges 45.1
Orlando Cepeda 41.3
Norm Cash 39.8
Willie McCovey 39.5
Bill White 38.5
Yes, I know, I’m cherry-picking, but you win a World Series for the Mets, I’ll cherry-pick for you, too. And I think it’s fair to say that the list does reflect more or less how Gil was viewed at that particular moment, as having been the top first baseman of his time.
Career WAR of the starting lineup of the 1955 Dodgers:
66.5 Duke
66.3 Pee Wee
61.5 Jackie
44.9 Gil Hodges
40.7 Jim Gilliam
35.1 Carl Furillo
34.2 Campy
7.4 Sandy Amoros
and
21.2 Don Hoak
You could make a pretty good argument that the 3 best 1st baseman of the 50’s are all on this ballot (Hodges, Kluszewski, Torgeson).
Hartvig:
1) Mickey Vernon over Torgeson, I’d say.
2) Gil and Ted are just the best of a bunch who fall short somewhat of players at that position in other decades, for whatever reason. I don’t agree with some here that Hodges should be a HOFer. He was beloved as a player and as a manager, and that clouds the issue. The Hall of Very Good, sure.
Hall of Stats has Hodges as only a 76 rating, well short of the 100 needed for that Hall.
Like many first basemen, Hodges has a mountain to climb to overcome their high negative positional adjustments.
NSB: I agree with your position re: Hodges. At the same time, I feel that WAR is a bit “unfair” to first basemen. It’s just really hard to accumulate WAR while playing first.
Start with baserunning. Most first basemen aren’t very fast so they’re going to be average or below average in that area.
Fielding? There are 71 players with 100+ Rfield but only 3 were primarily first baseman. So even the best first baseman don’t get much Rfield. And that’s BEFORE you take into account the negative position adjustment from playing first. Once that’s accounted for, even the best fielding first baseman have a negative dWAR.
So that leaves hitting. Which is their strength. But in order to overcome their baserunning and fielding issues, a first baseman has to do more than mash the ball. They have to MASH the ball. And nowadays, even their hitting is devalued given all the middle infielders who can hit 20+ home runs.
I get it. First base is an easy position to fill. At the same time, I can’t help feeling that WAR might somehow be undervaluing their contributions.
The thing is, most first basemen overcome the mountain with a big booming bat. And that’s just not what Rbat is showing for Hodges. It may seem strange, but it’s really his hitting that is keeping his WAR down.
There are 64 first basemen (50% of games played) with 150+ Rbat. Hodges is way down on the list, with his 200 Rbat ranking him 49th all-time among 1B (he’s 31st in PAs). That’s half of Fred McGriff. If you want someone a little closer in PAs (McGriff has about 2000 more PAs), Will Clark has about 150 more PAs and 150 more Rbat. Hodges’ bat is ranked in the same area as Paul Konerko – it’s less than Mo Vaughn or Mark Grace or Bob Watson and way less than John Olerud or Norm Cash (and I’m just throwing out the “surprise” names, to me, on the list). I don’t mean any of that as a knock on Hodges, it’s just what the Rbat number says.
One might think Rbat is shortchanging Hodges, but if it is, then what is it doing to Duke Snider (who had 390 Rbat in about 100 more PAs)? They were teammates whose careers matched up (in terms of the actual years) as well as just about any two players. Hodges went .273/.359/.487, while Snider went .295/.380/.540 in virtually the same parks in the same years. If it’s shortchanging Hodges that much, then Snider should be the hands down winner of this COG election. But I don’t think Rbat is shortchanging either one of them.
Hodges actually does pretty well with fielding, with 48.2 Rfield, placing him tied for 13th among the 64 first basemen with 150+ Rbat. If McCovey had Hodges’ Rfield numbers he’d be in the COG already because he’d have close to 80 WAR; if McGriff had Hodges’ Rfield he might be on the bubble (he’d have a little over 60 WAR).
Hodges’ baserunning is also not too bad for 1B, with his -1.1 placing him tied for 16th among the 64 first basemen. His DP numbers are difficult to judge because of a lack of data for many players, but the gap between him and the highest rated player (Will Clark) is 20 runs.
As I mentioned earlier, I’m not trying to knock Hodges (from what I’ve read he seems to be one of the most beloved players in MLB history), but just trying to explain what’s holding down his WAR. And really, relative to other first basemen, it’s his hitting.
Definitely Artie Z! That’s why I wrote that first baseman need to MASH and not just mash.
David – I think most people think of Hodges as a MASHer though. When he retired he was 11th all-time in HRs and there were only 22 players with more than 300 HRs. Only two active players with 300+ HR at the time who were behind him (Aaron and Banks) would eventually pass him (the M&M&M boys, Mantle, Mays, and Mathews, were active but already ahead of Hodges).
Even extending the time period to 1993 his 370 HRs is still 38th all-time, and most of the players who subsequently passed him had a lot more opportunities (guys like Yaz, Murray, Nettles, the non-brother Evans’, Winfield, etc. all had over 10,000 PAs) . 65 players in 1993 had hit 300 career HRs. Hodges had 370 in 8102 PAs, or one every 21.9 PAs. He was 27th, or thereabouts using the method I used, among those with 300+ HRs, in how often he homered.
But he was really a HR hitter rather than an all-around MASHer (he’s near the bottom in career doubles among players who had 300+ HRs by 1993, and his rate of hitting doubles is about 54th out of the 65), and I think the HRs, along with the public’s general feelings about him, have colored our collective perception of him as a ballplayer.
I disagree that the mountain is unfairly high. Hodges just didn’t do that much with his bat. Ashburn has a comparable rBat, yes he played CF, and played it really well. Guys on here who’s primary claim to fame is defensive excellence or speed combined with merely above average bats have comparable hitting value to Hodges.
Even if you give him 0 rPos, he still only would end up with about 53 WAR, and he’d be borderline for the hall of stats, clearly below our borderline COG candidates. Part of his problem (because he did hit a little better than Ashburn) is that he only had 8000 PAs, which is a bit light for a hall of fame or COG career. Most of our candidates are 9000+, and the ones who are in the 8000 range either *really* MASHed, or added value in a lot of areas.
Hodges probably has the MASH image because of his HRs, but unlike a lot of other prodigious HR hitters, he didn’t back it up with either a ton of walks, or solid average. Not just doubles. His OBP is above average, but not spectacular at .359, and his slugging is .500. That does not a MASHer make.
In response to Artie Z (#98) and Michael Sullivan (#114).
I understand that the perception of Hodges is that he was a MASHEer. But I’m not talking about perception. I’m talking about WAR and the difficulty that first baseman have in accumulating WAR.
Just looking at the extreme, there are (I think) 55 seasons of 10+ WAR by a position player but only 3 of those are by first baseman (though third baseman have even fewer, only 1). Gehrig has 2 of the 10+ WAR seasons and Foxx has the other. It’s been 80 years since a first baseman had a 10+ WAR season!
Here’s a better analogy for why Hodges shouldn’t even sniff the COG. Consider Keith Hernandez as a comparison to Hodges. Hernandez didn’t get much take up from the hall voters, and there’s no major campaign to get him back on the ballot — he’s not considered a massive snub, even though many people have him in their personal halls. He had almost no support for COG either in his year (one and done at 4.98%, got less support than Dan Quisenberry!, or on the redemption ballot.
So very few people consider him a realistic candidate for COG.
And yet he has it all over Hodges both at bat and in the field.
rBat 298 to 200 in only 500 more PAs.
OPS+ 128 to Hodges 120
rField 117 to 48
baserunning and dp they were both pretty average and pretty close.
Hernandez actually gets dinged a fair bit harder for being a 1B than Hodges, with rPos of -109 to Hodges -92.
So Keith ends up with 61 WAR to Hodges 45.
Now, even if you can’t stand rField and don’t trust it, I think it’s indisputable that Keith Hernandez was one of the best fielding 1Bs of all time. Hodges might be closer than rField suggests, but it’s almost impossible that he was significantly better than KH.
And he’s almost *100* runs behind in rBat, which is pretty well founded.
The biggest thing that makes Hodges look better is that the 50s were a more offensive era than the 70s, so his raw numbers are better, even though Hernandez’s adjusted numbers are significantly better. Also Hernandez is strong in things which matter more for real runs (fewer HRs, but more hits, walks and doubles and fewer SOs)
If WAR is unfair to 1Bs, then Keith belongs in the COG and Hodges still is below borderline.
David – to me, a 10 WAR season is such a rarity that it’s difficult to really understand anything about WAR patterns from just looking at 10 WAR seasons. Pujols has been close to 10 WAR, and Bagwell was on pace for 10 WAR in 1994 until (1) the strike and (2) he broke his wrist or hand (I forget what it was) so the strike didn’t really matter.
I’m not sure how well this will format but I will give it a try:
10+ 9.0-9.99 8.0-8.99 7.0-7.99 7+
1B 0 6 10 27 43
2B 1 7 12 21 41
3B 1 9 20 41 71
SS 7 2 8 22 39
LF 5 10 15 24 54
CF 10 8 20 33 71
RF 2 6 13 34 55
C 0 0 3 11 14
DH 0 0 0 1 1
It looks really nice while I’m typing, not sure how it will look when I press “submit”. At any rate, it’s a table for post-integration single season WAR numbers by position (using a 50% games played criterion). The 1st column is seasons with 10+ WAR, then 9.0-9.99, then 8.0-8.99, then 7.0-7.99. The last column is the number of 7+ WAR seasons by position (just the sum of the first 4 columns for each position).
I’m not sure first base is really being shortchanged – they have more 7+ WAR seasons than 2B or SS (even though SS has a bunch of 10+ WAR seasons, those seasons are when a shortstop hits like a 1B and plays good defense). LF and RF have a few more 7+ WAR seasons (55 each), but one might expect that because those players are expected to “hit like a 1B” but also likely have a little speed because they are playing the outfield. Plus some of that is driven by a great player or players with a long career – the time frame picks up Aaron and Clemente.
The big outliers are CF and 3B, which both have 71 7+ WAR seasons. Most of the 7 WAR CF seasons (when only accomplished once by a player) seem to be by a plus defender who has a great year with the bat (McGee in 1985, Lance Johnson in 1996, etc.). Plus there are the Mays and Mantle careers.
For 3B I think it is just the players we’ve seen playing 3B post-integration. There were only 12 7+ WAR seasons by a 3B pre-1947, by far the lowest number for a position other than catcher. Every other position except LF (and catcher) had at least one individual player with at least 7 7+ WAR seasons and Home Run Baker led 3B with 3.
@66/nsb,
I think that Gil Hodges benefits from the nostalgiac haze of affection for “‘Dem Old Bums”, the Brooklyn Dodgers of the late 40s to mid 50s.
As nsb and several other have commented, Hodges was merely the best of the 50s First Basemen, which by itself is not enough evidence for a HOF campaign. Also, even in his own time, I don’t think Hodges was regarded anywhere as highly as his other Dodger team-mates that are in the HOF.
As evidence, I offer the MVP voting. Granted, this is often not the best evaluation of player, but it does tell us how people regarded a particular player when they were active:
MVP VOTING for the DODGERS ‘Boys of Summer’:
@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@
Gil HODGES:
high: 7th (ALSO 8,10; 11,14,16,18,19)// years: 9// shares: 0.65
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Jackie ROBINSON:
high: FIRST (ALSO 5,6,7; 12,15,15,16)// years: 8 // shares: 1.74
SNIDER
high: 2nd (ALSO 3,4,8,9,10; 18 )// years: 8 // shares: 1.97
REESE:
high: 5th (ALSO 6,6,8,8,8,9,9; 11,15) // years: 13(!) // shares: 1.76
CAMPANELLA:
high: FIRST (3 times) (ALSO 10; 13,15) // years: 7 // share: 2.52
and by contrast, a non-HOFer who doesn’t have much of a HOF constituency nowadays…:
NEWCOMBE:
high: FIRST (ALSO: 7,8) // years: 5 // share: 1.13
So, even without without using advanced stats such as WAR, we have pretty clear evidence that Gil Hodges was regarded as highly in his team as a number of his other team mates, including one non-HOFer. Five of his fellow Dodgers finished higher in MVPP voting and had more MVP shares, and four had more Top-10 finishes.
@132/ME;
OOPS! I meant to say:
“…Gil Hodges was _NOT_ regarded as highly On the DODGERS, as a number of his other team mates, including one non-HOFer.”
. My computer is being RIDICULOUSLY slow, so I’ve been trying to write “a couple quick posts” and it’s taken over 20 minutes. Hopefully, the wife won’t be too mad. 😉
Duke Snider
Ryne Sandberg
and, making his debut on my ballot, a personal favorite and the player I most admired as a hitter growing up:
Edgar Martinez!
Finally, a shout-out to Al Rosen, who came a couple of hits away from a Triple Crown (lost out to Mickey Vernon by .017), had one of the oddest career arcs in ML history, cut short on both ends. Definitely one of the greatest Jewish ballplayers of all-time, and a great peak for some good Cleveland teams. If he had repeated his ’53 season in ’54, those Indians could’ve won 116. I don’t think he’ll get any votes (nor would he deserve them), but he was a helluva player, and deserves some extra love in the comments.
Duke Snider, Orestes Miñoso, Craig Biggio
Smoltz, Lofton, Edgar Martinez.
I will NEVER vote for Koufax. 6 dominant years should not exclude the same amount of bad to average years he had IMHO.
Because the careers of so many of our finest were at peak value between ages 19 and 24. There are COG players that had lower WAR totals before their year 25 seasons.
To add some stats to mosc’s comment:
1. Koufax had 6.6 WAR before his age 25 season.
2. It’s not ahead of a lot of HOF hitters, particularly ones we’ve elected to the COG. But HOF hitters generally get started before age 24, particularly those we elect to the COG (I see Ozzie and Boggs as having less than 6.6 WAR before age 25 but Boggs only had 104 games under his belt and Ozzie was surviving on defense, posting -43 Rbat because of his sub-.300 OBP AND SLG numbers).
3. 6.6 WAR before age 25 is 38th all-time among HOF pitchers.
4. That 6.6 WAR is ahead of Whitey Ford (who is still on the COG ballot) and Tom Glavine and Nolan Ryan and Bob Gibson and Gaylord Perry (who are all COG members) and Warren Spahn (who will almost certainly be elected on his first ballot) at the same age.
5. The flip side of that is from age 30 Koufax is behind virtually every HOF pitcher, though he is ahead of Bob Feller, who pitched about 1000 more innings than Koufax from age 30 on. Feller will be an interesting case because he is kind of a “reverse Koufax” (lots of value at the beginning of his career), though if he’s given any WAR credit for years missed to war then he’s virtually a shoe-in.
Artie Z,
I think your WAR comparison doesn’t work very well. Koufax had six years to make it to his 6.6. Ford had 5.8 in two years, with two years lost to the military. Perry and Gibson both made it to the bigs at age 23, so two years apiece there, too. With Glavine and Ryan the comparison is more valid, four years apiece plus a 3-inning stint at 19 for Ryan. When you look at it in detail, though, these seem more like contrasts than comparisons.
As for the feller named Feller, using your method he produced 7.6 WAR from age 31 on while Koufax produced 0.0.
None of this makes Koufax any better or worse than he was. If anything, it just shows what a minefield the sole dependence on WAR evaluation turns out to be.
Oops—5.3 for ford in 2 years.
McCovey, Sandberg,Snider
Martinez, McCovey, Snider
Snider, Smoltz, Gil Hodges
Martinez, Smoltz, Killebrew
Ford, Minoso, Ashburn
Biggio, Lofton, Ashburn
I’m not sure I could handle it if I ever voted for a holdover that actually wins. Last one was probably Clemente.
Koufax, Ford, Snider
I could vote for three of the 1959 pennant-winning White Sox (Lollar, Torgeson, Klu), but that would leave off Miñoso.
Kluszewski is one of four players with 5 RBI in game 1 of the World Series, one of 10 with 2 HR (three with both). He also hit the first (and third) homerun ever for Los Angeles de Anaheim, on Opening Day 1961 before they even thought real hard about playing in Anaheim.
[X] Minoso
[X] Kluszewski
[X] Hodges
==================
[ _ ] Biggio
[ _ ] Murray
[ _ ] Killebrew
[ _ ] Torgeson
[ _ ] Ford
Duke Snider, Edgar Martinez, Willie McCovey
To anyone who saw Ted Klu play: how often did he go sleeveless? Was it everyday? Can you recall anyone else in his time or before (or even after) who cut the sleeves off his jersey?
It makes him kind of unique it seems.
I saw him play occasionally but I can’t say he always went sleeveless. The closest I remember anyone to being sleeveless was Roger Maris.
Make that “…anyone else to being sleeveless…”
That’s right! Maris cut his sleeves a bit also. Thanks!
Wikipedia confirms my memory on this: the sleeveless thing was a gimmick for the whole “Redlegs” team in 1956, and went on a few years. Previously the Cubs wore sleeveless jerseys 1940-42.
Klu is profiled in Donald Honig’s “The Greatest First Basemen of All Time” – it’s a very short book profiling 20 post-1900 first basemen (about 6-7 pages on each of them).
Klu on the sleeves, or lack thereof (there are 4 pictures of him in the book where you can see his upper body well enough to see if he is sleeveless, and none look like he is sleeveless, though one looks like a short sleeve uniform top):
“When I first came up with the Reds in the late 1940s the uniforms at that particular time were wool flannel, and they never seemed to make an armhole big enough for me. I kept telling the guy who outfitted us to shorten the sleeves because they bothered me. But he didn’t, for some, reason, and so I took a scissors and did it myself. But it was strictly as a matter of comfort. I guess those big arms hanging out over the plate did look kind of menacing, but that was never my intention. Believe me, I was a big, peaceful guy trying to get a few base hits and make a living.”
Possibly more interesting is Klu on his power surge:
“In spite of my size, when I came up I was a spray hitter. During my first few years my home-run totals were very modest, until 1953, when all of a sudden I hit 40. No, I didn’t start swinging for the fences. It was the pitchers who forced me into hitting home runs. They found out they couldn’t pitch me outside because I’d go with the ball. So they started coming inside. Well, if you adjust correctly you have to pull the ball, and when you pull the ball you just naturally hit more home runs. That’s what happened with me.
Another factor in there was the idea of self-preservation for the pitchers. You see, when they were pitching me outside I was hitting a lot of line drives through the box. I must have been getting about a dozen pitchers a year with line drives, and they began thinking about that. I guess they figured they’d rather run the risk of throwing a home-run ball than getting shot off the mound.”
Upon looking at the picture of Klu with the Pirates in 1958, it may actually be a sleeveless uniform top, though he’s wearing a long sleeve shirt underneath it. It’s difficult for me to tell if it the uniform top is two separate pieces or just one piece that has black sleeves.
2001 Pirate media guide says:
1957: Pirates become the second team to adopt sleeveless jerseys.
It doesn’t say when sleeves were brought back, though.
Uniform images are available on BR. The Pirates wore their sleeveless uniforms until 1969. In 1970 they wore uniforms that were both sleeveless and with sleeves. Afterwards it was back to all uniforms with sleeves.
Then the exact date would be July 16, 1970 – when Three Rivers opened and the Pirates changed uniforms.
Not to deny Klu’s narrative, but there’s another pretty obvious cause of his power surge — the shortened fences in Crosley Field in 1953.
Total homers in Crosley Field more than doubled overnight, from an average of 88 in 1951-52 to 185 and up from 1953 onward.
Klu’s home HRs went from an average of 6 for 1951-52 to an average of 25 for 1953-56. His road HRs also rose, but only from an average of 9 for 1951-52 to 17 for the next four years.
I kind of figured something like that happened – but rather than be proactive and Google it I figured I would post the quote and someone would fill me in 😉
Killebrew, McCovey, and Ford
Killebrew, Biggio, Ford.
Tally note: the ballot @ 67 hasn’t been tallied yet.
Who is a circle of great? Dang, this is a tough round. Gotta go with Snider, Smoltz, Koufax
Tough round in that I think there’s a lot of borderline cases. Maybe everyone on the ballot. My instinct is to go with the big counting stats, I.e., Murray, Biggio, but still not sure they were better players than my choices, though Smoltz might fit that description. Maybe Steady Eddie was too steady. One big “Yaz” year would hAve put him in some rounds ago.
Hard to find a chink in The Duke’s armor, if one were looking: great hitter, played a demanding defensive position capably, hit 11 World Series HRs with a higher OPS than in the regular season. Nice peak, continued to hit well above-average ’til almost the end. Yeah, I’m on board.
Duke Snider, Sandy Koufax, Kenny Lofton
Snider was my brother’s favorite player, but he wasn’t exactly beloved. Kind of a lesser Ted Williams, aloof and moody, a target of the sportswriters of that era, when the writers weren’t nearly so critical as they became after sports journalism got serious about itself.
Also, he bought an avocado ranch, a sign of mental disturbance if one ever existed.
On April 23, 1958 Snider injured his arm trying to throw a ball out of the Dodgers’ new home park, the LA Coliseum.
“he bought an avocado ranch”
I have absolutely no idea why but that exact thought popped into my head when I saw the first sentence of your comment in the “Recent comments” section.
And as I seem to recall that didn’t work out so well for him and he apparently lost a fair bit on money on the deal so the rest of your comment seems equally valid.
The chink in the Duke’s armor is that he struggled against lefties.
Fortunately for him, because the Dodger’s lineup was stacked with right handed batters, he didn’t have to face many lefties.
A bit of data:
1) Of the 162 players with 8,000+ PAs, Snider has the second biggest difference between his total OPS and his OPS against lefties (only Thome has a bigger difference).
2) Only 14% of Snider’s career PAs came against left handers, by far the lowest percentage of any of the 162 players with 8,000+ PAs. All the other players are above 20%.
3) Although he was platooned later in his career (often receiving fewer than 20 PAs a year against lefties), it’s also true that he didn’t face many lefties during his prime due to the Dodger’s righty heavy line-up. For example, in 1954, the Dodgers had 12.6% of their PAs against lefties. whereas the NL as a whole was at 25.5%.
I voted for Snider and I don’t plan on changing my vote. But I can’t help but wonder what Snider’s stats and WAR would look like if he had to face a normal amount of lefties.
In particular for Snider’s last 10 years with the Dodgers, 1953-1962, which included his peak years he had all of 6 PA against Warren Spahn.
RC:
Spahn kind of returned the compliment. In the seven years from 1953-1959 he started only 9 games against the Dodgers, and 1954-56 only one. His record was 1-9 with two saves in that stretch with an ERA of 5.70 or so.
David, thanks. I wasn’t aware of that.
Vote:
Kenny Lofton
Minnie Minoso
Eddie Murray
Martinez, Smoltz, and Snider please.
Smoltz, Snider, Sandberg
Murray, Snider, Smoltz
For the 1924 election, I’m voting for:
-Ryne Sandberg
-Edgar Martinez
-Craig Biggio
Other top candidates I considered highly (and/or will consider in future rounds):
-Smoltz
-Lofton
-Murray
-McCovey
-Killebrew
-Ashburn
-Snider
Minoso, Smoltz and Ford
Smoltz, Koufax, Snider
Top candidates using (WAR + (WAA/2)) methodology, including bWAR adjustment for pitchers:
Smoltz 88.5
Martinez 87.5
Lofton 87.3
Sandberg 86.6
Snider 84.2
Murray 81.8
McCovey 79.6
Biggio 79.4
Ashburn 77.5
Killebrew 74.4
Ford 71.8
Koufax 64.4
My actual vote: Smoltz, Lofton, Sandberg.
McCovey, Lofton, Biggio
Smoltz, Lofton, Snider
Koufax, McCovey, Killebrew
I don’t love the top three, and I still think WAR underrates Ford.
Ford, Sandberg, and to perhaps help avoid another run through Redemption Purgatory, Killebrew.
I never gave much thought to Ford because of my belief that he was overrated due to being a Yankee, but it looks like WAR might indeed give him a raw deal. He gets docked massively in many years for having a great defense (4.3 WAR in 1958 for a full season with a 2.01 ERA? Come on…), and while he probably did benefit a lot from his defense, you can’t fully trust those adjustments. I don’t know if I would vote for Ford anytime soon, but I’ll have to give him a bump going forward.
But it’s not unheard of to post an ERA like that and receive 4.3 WAR. It hasn’t happened in a while (the late 1960s for something similar, a sub-2.25 ERA and less than 5 WAR, to happen) but it has happened.
One key is that Ford “only” pitched 219.1 innings. Another is that run scoring in the AL was 4.16 per game in 1958 (and lower than that when the Yankees are removed – it’s 4.06, which is about what the NL is scoring in 2014). It also seems like he’s getting penalized because he mainly pitched in good pitcher’s parks that year. And yes, he had a good defense. I take that back – he had a really good defense. All of those things add up and it looks like Whitey should have given up 3.44 R/9 innings when he actually gave up 2.54 (counting all runs, not just earned runs).
In 1968 Bob Veale had a 2.05 ERA in 245.1 innings, and had 3.6 WAR. In 1952 Allie Reynolds had a 2.06 ERA in 244.1 innings and had 4.8 WAR. Dutch Leonard had a 2.12 ERA in 216 innings in 1945 and had 3.4 WAR. Going earlier in baseball history gets many players who had a sub-2.25 ERA and less than 5 WAR, but many are deadball era pitchers when run scoring was much lower overall and errors were much more common, which influences ERA to a large extent. Earl Moore led the AL in ERA (1.73) and ERA+ (163) in 1903 and pitched 247.2 innings – he had 4.3 WAR but he’s “only” a half run better than expected given all of his conditions (Whitey was about 0.9 better but pitched fewer innings).
My guess is it only seems like it is unfair because it is Whitey Ford. Is WAR unfair to Drysdale in 1968 (2.15 ERA in 239 innings, 4.4 WAR)?
Great post, Artie! Very well fleshed-out. Interesting examples, too.
strictly ‘bubble’ guys this time:
– Harmon Killebrew
– Eddie Murray
– Richie Ashburn
Willie McCovey, Kenny Lofton, Richie Ashburn
Smoltz,
Killebrew,
Ashburn
Smoltz, Martinez, Snider
seems like they’re the top 3 already, but they’re ranked top 3 by my methodology.
McCovey, Murray and Smoltz
Smoltz, Lofton, Martinez
Murray, Koufax, Smoltz
Smoltz (to win)
Lofton (belongs and close to 25%)
Miñoso (not sure he belongs yet, but want him to stay on the ballot)
Wow, smoltz comes from behind to tie snider!
What happens with a tie at the top of the ballot? Run-off? They both get in?
Looks like we have another runoff in store.
There was some discussion of the best way to handle ties in the wake of the Ryan/Rose runoff of 1941, e.g. see post #70 of the 1938 election and the various replies to that post.
As best I can tell, the issue was resolved in post #100 of the 1937 Pt 1 election, where birtelcom wrote:
“In case of a tie at the end, I think the most persuasive case thus far has been made by those who favor a short runoff round before the next regular round, so that’s the current plan in case of a tie….The tiebreaker to resolve another tie in the runoff round itself would be to award induction to whoever received the most votes not including the final ballot cast.”
I STRONGLY would favor a weekend-long run-off (beginning today and resolving Monday or something, no vote changes allowed). Get the whole thing settled quickly, and then move on. I think it works best when we’re not trying to juggle two elections at once. The only other option would be to run them concurrently, but to have the run-off conclude first. That worked fine last time, but I guess my preference is for just one ballot, and then moving on QUICKLY.
I’m on the road today, will take a look at this probably late tonight
The authority hath spoken, with a capital B.