After he finished third and fourth, respectively, over the previous two rounds, Juan Marichal’s support this round bounced up and put him over the top, in his 17th round on the ballot. Marichal becomes the 57th inductee into the High Heat Stats Circle of Greats.
If the 1960s were the decade of the pitcher, Juan Marichal was the pitcher of the decade of the pitcher:
Most Pitching Wins Above Replacement (“WAR”, baseball-reference version), 1960-1969:
1. Juan Marichal 55.2
2. Bob Gibson 54.4
3. Sandy Koufax 48.1
4. Jim Bunning 46.2
5. Don Drysdale 44.6
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Through 2013, there have been 256 team-seasons played by franchises based in California (56 each by the Dodgers and Giants, 53 by the Angels, 46 by the A’s and 45 by the Padres). Here are the highest career pitching WAR by a pitcher playing for California-based teams:
1. Juan Marichal 62.0
2. Don Sutton 58.1
3. Don Drysdale 53.3
4. Chuck Finley 52.2
5. Sandy Koufax 51.3
6. Gaylord Perry 44.5
7. Bob Welch 43.4
8. Vida Blue 43.0
9. Orel Hershiser 41.1
10. Fernando Valenzuela 36.6
11. Jered Weaver 34.2 (active with Cal. team in 2014)
12. Barry Zito 33.9
13. Clayton Kershaw 33.2 (active with Cal. team in 2014)
14. Matt Cain 32.3 (active with Cal. team in 2014)
15. Tim Hudson 32.1 (active with Cal. team in 2014)
16. Andy Messersmith 30.2
17. Kevin Brown 29.1
18. Jim Barr 28.2
T19. Burt Hooton and Claude Osteen 26.3
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Among the 100 pitchers with the highest career strikeout totals since 1900, here are the five lowest walks per nine innings career totals:
1. Christy Mathewson 1.59 BB/9
2. Pete Alexander 1.65 BB/9
3. Robin Roberts 1.73 BB/9
4. Greg Maddux 1.80 BB/9
5. Juan Marichal 1.82 BB/9
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Notes on the 1925, Part 2 round of voting:
–Juan Marichal appeared on 26 ballots in his debut as an eligible COG candidate, did not top 20 again until he got 21 in his twelfth round on the ballot (he fell one vote short of Ron Santo for induction), bumped up to 24 two rounds later (three votes behind induction-winner Bobby Grich), then bumped back up to 24 again this round, which was enough for the win this time.
–Richie Ashburn is nothing if not consistent in his COG candidacy. In his four rounds on the ballot he’s received support from exactly 8 voters each time.
–Minnie Minoso had a nice debut on the ballot, picking up 25%+ support, so not only will he be back next round, he will avoid bubble status.
–With all the holdovers receiving support of at least 10%, the holdover count will remain at 13 for the next round, as Minoso replaces Marichal on the list and everyone else remains intact.
–John Smoltz appeared on 19 ballots, his highest number in 33 rounds (!!). For a while there he looked like a serious threat to Juan Marichal for this round’s induction. With Marichal safely in the COG, Smoltz now has the second-largest stash of eligibility years with five secure rounds worth, behind only Koufax, whose 12 rounds of compiled eligibility makes him as close to exile-proof as it gets around here. Smoltz’s accumulated eligibility pile is creeping back up to the levels he once possessed, before it eroded during some of those especially talent-laden 1930s votes.
–In addition to Smoltz and Minoso, the Dodgers Snider and Koufax also topped the 25% level and thus add an extra round to their eligibility cache. Kenny Lofton missed the 25% level by one vote.
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The full spreadsheet showing this round’s vote tally is here: COG 1925 Part 2 Vote Tally.
The vote summary for recent Circle of Greats voting rounds is here: COG Vote Summary 2 . An archive with fuller details of the 1968 through 1939 rounds is here: COG 1968-1939 Vote Summary . In both cases, raw vote totals for each past round appears on Sheet 1 and the percentage totals for each past round appears on Sheet 2.
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A spreadsheet listing the full membership to date of the Circle of Greats is here: Circle of Greats Membership . You can also now find that same link any time by clicking on “Circle of Greats” at the top of the High Heats Stats home page.
Lowest WAR total in COG thus far:
Mariano Rivera – 56.5
Mike Piazza – 59.2
Yogi Berra – 59.3
Juan Marichal – 61.9
Marichal is the first player inducted with under 67 WAR who doesn’t have something obvious about him that would lead us to believe he’s better than his WAR total indicates (Piazza and Berra are catchers, Rivera a reliever). Not passing judgment on his selection, just making an observation. Otherwise, it would seem WAR in the high 60s is the base threshold for induction, although there are a bunch of guys on the current ballot who fall into this category and are struggling to get in.
Meanwhile, Sandy Koufax might take over as the player with the lowest WAR elected, but he would have to be considered a special case in his own right.
Dan – Why would Koufax be considered a special case but not Marichal?
1) Their 4, 5 and 6 year peaks are virtually identical. Koufax has a slight edge in pitching WAR though if you include batting, I believe Marichal would have a slight edge.
2) Koufax’s 6 year peak was accomplished over 6 consecutive seasons, Marichal’s over a 7 year stretch. So no real difference.
3) Koufax retired young due to his elbow injury. Marichal began struggling with injuries around the same age as Koufax(arthritis and back pain) but instead of retiring choose to continue, albeit at a reduced effectiveness.
What are you seeing that I’m not?
Koufax probably gets some “specialness” bonus for 57 World Series innings with a 0.95 ERA, .463 OPS against. Sadly for Marichal, with only 4 World Series IP, he didn’t have the same opportunity.
If you go by Adam Darowski’s hall rating, Marichal is the *only* player we’ve voted in with less than a 125 hall rating (which would place you #117 among players currently eligible for the hall). Juan Marichal is at #148 and a hall rating of 114.
I agree that Marichal is really not that different from Koufax, his peak was almost equally spectacular, and his career was also quite short, accumulating almost all of his WAR (and all of his WAA) in 10 years, so he perhaps makes a reasonable exception to the 120+ hall rating rule. So far he’s the only one.
Previously the lowest hall ratings were 126 and 125 for Tony Gwynn and Jim Palmer.
We currently have 7 players on the holdover list above the 125 hall rating threshold: Smoltz, Martinez, Lofton, McCovey, Sandberg, Biggio and Snider. Murray is just below it at 123, and Ashburn is ahead of JM at 117. Koufax is barely in the hall of stats at 100, and ford is at 104, Killebrew at 111, while Minoso is below the 100 line and not in the HOS.
There are also a fair number of players on the redemption ballot (or not even on the redemption ballot) who are above the 125 threshold.
I say this mostly because, IMO, one big argument for taking players below that threshold is that league replacement level and league average level have been much higher standards in recent years than earlier ones, with integration being one of the brighter lines we can draw on that score. In a few more years, we’ll have seen every player who started their career post-1947.
Some of the people we’ve passed on, IMO make better candidates than players who are coming up.
I don’t think Marichal is a poor selection. I voted for him, but I do think he’s an exception to my general career value line, and so far he’s the only exception.
I think that Adam’s Hall of Stats rating formula may under-rate peak a little; I think even he has suggested that on occasion. Of course, the peak/longevity line is more of a subjective judgment than trying to figure out, say, the value of walks in run creation.
Michael- That exact same thought just occurred to me as I was scrolling thru the Hall of Stats just moments ago.
In addition to the people already on our holdover list that you’ve already mentioned (Murray, Ashburn, Killebrew, Ford, Koufax and Minoso) I see another dozen that I think might get some support when their time comes:
1) Jackie Robinson (124)- I suspect that he’ll be elected on his initial ballot
2) Home Run Baker (122)- substantially ahead of any other third baseman who played in the first 75 years of the game. He also sat out an entire season in the prime of his career in a contract dispute with Connie Mack and again later to take care of his children after his wife died. Hard to call but I think he’ll get enough support to stay around for a while at the very least.
3 & 4) Gabby Hartnett (120) and Mickey Cochran (118)- Adam does make an adjustment for catchers- question being, is it enough? With Yogi’s election in the last round we now have 5 catchers in the COG (Berra, Carter, Bench, Fisk, Piazza) but only one remaining with a HOS score above 125- Bill Dickey (127). It’s all going to depend on how much “credit” people are willing to give for being a catcher.
5, 6 & 7) Pee Wee Reese (119), Hank Greenberg (117) and Joe Gordon (116)- all lost significant playing time to World War 2
8 & 9) Goose Goslin (116) and Mordecai “Three Finger” Brown (113)- I just guessing but I think their historical reputations might get them some strong support
10) George Sisler (110)- Will get support from those who place a premium on peak performance- he put up some pretty remarkable numbers over a 7 year stretch until vision problems came along
11) Hoyt Wilhelm (107)- The last reliever with any shot at getting in. He doesn’t score as well as Eckersley (123) but much more of his career value came as a true reliever (52 career starts as opposed to opposed to 361 for Eckersley). I think he’ll garner some support.
12) Larry Doby (101)- Arguably a better case than Minoso for time lost (to both segregation and WW2)
I suppose there may also be others (like Minoso) who didn’t make the Hall of Stats (which doesn’t make any adjustments for time lost due to segregation or WW2) who may also get some support (Dizzy Dean?).
Then there are the guys no longer on the ballot who may reappear in future redemption rounds- most notably Dick Allen (115) and Dave Winfield (113) who were both on the ballot for quite some time.
And then of course there are the guys no longer on the ballot who are OVER the 125 mark- like Kevin Brown (137), Rick Reuschel (135) and Luis Tiant (128)- who could also reappear somewhere down the road.
I should also point out that at least 8 of the top 112 in the Hall of Stats had careers that were mostly or entirely in the 19th century- which if my understanding is correct means that they (as well as Amos Rusie @ 118) will not be considered for the COG. And there are 3 or 4 others who’s careers are pretty evenly split between the 2 and I’m not sure exactly where that cutoff line is going to be drawn.
Plus we’ll still be voting when the next HOF election rolls around.
A redemption round candidate is getting strong support on the current ballot (Martinez). I’m guessing that before we’re finished with this process that will happen more than a few more times.
Hartvig – Robbie Alomar (124) should also be on the list of redemption players.
You’re right- I missed to most obvious one when I tried to pick out the guys who had been on multiple ballots. And, of course, there are many others who were on a ballot or two that could make a return as well.
I’m thinking that when we get a bit further back- certainly by the time we get to the 1880’s if not sooner- that we may have to consider either expanding the number of readmissions from redemption rounds or holding them more often. I don’t know if it will do much good to do it too soon however because there still are some fairly long stretches with some pretty obvious choices in the coming decades as well as a few birth years (like 1918, 07, 03 and ’00) that are pretty heavily talent laden and may take a toll on our holdover list if we expand it too soon.
I’m sure that birtelcom will come up with an ingenious way to ensure that we will always be able to choose from the most talented players not yet enshrined.