Is Willie Wilson baseball’s best baserunner ever?

47 Replies

Willie Wilson, all-star center-fielder with the dominating Kansas City Royal teams of the 1970s and 1980s showed up recently as one of the players in a quiz I was researching. Rest assured you quiz afficionados will get your chance to try your luck, but first I wanted to tell you about what I found to be a truly startling result.

Those who remember Willie will recall a lightning-fast singles hitter who, unfortunately, couldn’t take a walk to save his life. Thus, he ended up his playing days with a .285/.326/.376 slash, good for just a 94 OPS+. But, wait. Wilson parlayed that 94 OPS+ into a nice 46 career WAR in just over 2000 games. How many outfielders have done that? Actually, only Willie. And, among those with a career OPS+ of 95 or worse, there’s nobody else even close.

Rk Player WAR OPS+ From To Age G PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Willie Wilson 46.0 94 1976 1994 20-38 2154 8317 1169 2207 281 147 41 585 425 1144 .285 .326 .376 .702
2 Darin Erstad 32.3 93 1996 2009 22-35 1654 6628 913 1697 316 33 124 699 475 939 .282 .336 .407 .743
3 Lance Johnson 30.1 95 1987 2000 23-36 1447 5800 767 1565 175 117 34 486 352 384 .291 .334 .386 .720
4 Marquis Grissom 29.4 92 1989 2005 22-38 2165 8959 1187 2251 386 56 227 967 553 1240 .272 .318 .415 .732
5 Jim Piersall 28.5 93 1950 1967 20-37 1734 6592 811 1604 256 52 104 591 524 583 .272 .332 .386 .718
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/8/2014.

So, how did Willie rack up the WAR? More after the jump.

A closer look at the above list reveals Marquis Grissom as having pretty similar counting stats to Wilson’s, except for the power numbers where Grissom holds a sizable edge. While some may remember Grissom as a defensive liability in the latter part of his career, he was actually a pretty fair defender as a younger player and compiled a respectable 4.0 career dWAR, not quite half the 10.0 dWAR that Wilson put up. But, surely that difference can’t account for Wilson’s huge WAR lead.

Indeed, that dWAR difference is not what separates Wilson from Grissom, Rather, it’s WAR baserunning runs that propel Wilson to the head of this list. Wilson compiled 120 WAR baserunning runs over his career. How does that stack up to the competition?

Rk Player Rbaser From To Age G PA R H BB GDP SB CS Pos Tm
1 Rickey Henderson 144.5 1979 2003 20-44 3081 13346 2295 3055 2190 172 1406 335 *78HD/9 NYY-OAK-TOR-SDP-ANA-SEA-NYM-BOS-LAD
2 Willie Wilson 120.4 1976 1994 20-38 2154 8317 1169 2207 425 90 668 134 *87H/9D KCR-OAK-CHC
3 Tim Raines 114.8 1979 2002 19-42 2502 10359 1571 2605 1330 142 808 146 *7H8D/49 MON-CHW-NYY-OAK-BAL-FLA
4 Luis Aparicio 91.7 1956 1973 22-39 2601 11230 1335 2677 736 184 506 136 *6/H CHW-BAL-BOS
5 Max Carey 88.0 1910 1929 20-39 2476 10769 1545 2665 1040 738 109 *879/H PIT-BRO
6 Davey Lopes 83.0 1972 1987 27-42 1812 7340 1023 1671 833 126 557 114 *4H/8795D6 LAD-OAK-CHC-HOU
7 Barry Larkin 80.2 1986 2004 22-40 2180 9057 1329 2340 939 178 379 77 *6H/4D CIN
8 Joe Morgan 80.2 1963 1984 19-40 2649 11329 1650 2517 1865 105 689 162 *4H/7D58 HOU-CIN-SFG-PHI-OAK
9 Ozzie Smith 79.3 1978 1996 23-41 2573 10778 1257 2460 1072 167 580 148 *6/H SDP-STL
10 Kenny Lofton 78.5 1991 2007 24-40 2103 9235 1528 2428 945 111 622 160 *8/H7D9 HOU-CLE-ATL-CHW-SFG-CHC-PIT-NYY-PHI-LAD-TEX
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/8/2014.

Pretty good company for Willie. But look closely. Wilson finished a reasonably close second to Henderson despite Rickey collecting almost 40% more hits and 5 times as many walks.

Here’s a chart showing Rbaser by age for Henderson, Wilson and Raines.

WAR Baserunning Runs by Age

So, pretty much a dead heat through age 28. Henderson starts to separate himself after that point, extending his lead to eventually reach a margin of over 20 Rbaser.

But, look at the same data expressed as Rbaser per 100 times on base.

WAR Baserunning Runs per 100 TOB By Age
Probably best to just ignore the data prior to age 23 or so, as these data are distorted by low career TOB up to that age. The key point, though, is that Wilson maintained a ratio of 4 Rbaser per 100 TB throughout his career while Henderson never reached that level and Raines did so only up to age 25. At age 38, Wilson has a 1.4 Rbaser per 100 TOB edge over Raines and Henderson, almost 50% higher than the rate for those two.

Looking at individual seasons provides this view.

WAR Baserunning Runs per 100 TOB By Age COLUMN

Even a cursory glance quickly ascertains that the blue bars predominate as the top result at most ages. How many others have produced multiple seasons of 4+ Rbaser per 100 TOB? It’s a short list.

Rk Player Yrs From To Age
1 Willie Wilson 8 1979 1990 23-34 Ind. Seasons
2 Marquis Grissom 4 1990 1994 23-27 Ind. Seasons
3 Rickey Henderson 4 1983 1988 24-29 Ind. Seasons
4 Vince Coleman 3 1985 1987 23-25 Ind. Seasons
5 Tim Raines 3 1981 1985 21-25 Ind. Seasons
6 Ron LeFlore 3 1979 1981 31-33 Ind. Seasons
7 Julio Cruz 3 1978 1981 23-26 Ind. Seasons
8 Davey Lopes 3 1975 1985 30-40 Ind. Seasons
9 Michael Bourn 2 2009 2010 26-27 Ind. Seasons
10 David Hulse 2 1993 1994 25-26 Ind. Seasons
11 Otis Nixon 2 1988 1991 29-32 Ind. Seasons
12 Eric Davis 2 1986 1987 24-25 Ind. Seasons
13 Gary Redus 2 1984 1988 27-31 Ind. Seasons
14 Freddie Patek 2 1971 1975 26-30 Ind. Seasons
15 Bert Campaneris 2 1966 1969 24-27 Ind. Seasons
16 Dick Howser 2 1962 1965 26-29 Ind. Seasons
17 Maury Wills 2 1960 1962 27-29 Ind. Seasons
18 Luis Aparicio 2 1959 1960 25-26 Ind. Seasons
19 Max Carey 2 1920 1922 30-32 Ind. Seasons
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/8/2014.

And, the career leaders in Rbaser per 100 TOB with a minimum 1000 times on base.

Rk Player Rbaser TOBwe Rbaser per 100 TOB From-To Age G PA R H HR RBI BB SO SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Tm
1 Willie Wilson 120.4 2801 4.30 1976-1994 20-38 2154 8317 1169 2207 41 585 425 1144 668 134 .285 .326 .376 .702 KCR-OAK-CHC
2 Vince Coleman 75.0 1988 3.78 1985-1997 23-35 1371 5970 849 1425 28 346 477 960 752 177 .264 .324 .345 .668 STL-NYM-KCR-SEA-CIN-DET
3 Davey Lopes 83.0 2626 3.16 1972-1987 27-42 1812 7340 1023 1671 155 614 833 852 557 114 .263 .349 .388 .737 LAD-OAK-CHC-HOU
4 Tony Womack 51.8 1757 2.95 1993-2006 23-36 1303 5389 739 1353 36 368 308 649 363 74 .273 .317 .356 .673 PIT-ARI-COL-CHC-STL-NYY-CIN
5 Ron LeFlore 51.5 1752 2.94 1974-1982 26-34 1099 4872 731 1283 59 353 363 888 455 142 .288 .342 .392 .734 DET-MON-CHW
6 Julio Cruz 42.4 1471 2.88 1977-1986 22-31 1156 4438 557 916 23 279 478 508 343 78 .237 .321 .299 .620 SEA-CHW
7 Tim Raines 114.8 4076 2.82 1979-2002 19-42 2502 10359 1571 2605 170 980 1330 966 808 146 .294 .385 .425 .810 MON-CHW-NYY-OAK-BAL-FLA
8 Gary Redus 39.4 1422 2.78 1982-1994 25-37 1159 4066 591 886 90 352 481 688 322 83 .252 .342 .410 .752 CIN-PHI-CHW-PIT-TEX
9 Michael Bourn 37.2 1363 2.73 2006-2014 23-31 1017 4013 540 975 28 270 339 828 301 79 .270 .334 .364 .698 PHI-HOU-ATL-CLE
10 Rickey Henderson 144.5 5503 2.62 1979-2003 20-44 3081 13346 2295 3055 297 1115 2190 1694 1406 335 .279 .401 .419 .820 OAK-NYY-TOR-ANA-SEA-NYM-SDP-BOS-LAD
11 Tom Goodwin 37.9 1456 2.60 1991-2004 22-35 1288 4315 636 1029 24 284 365 660 369 118 .268 .332 .339 .671 LAD-KCR-TEX-COL-SFG-CHC
12 Dick Howser 27.1 1043 2.60 1961-1968 25-32 789 2937 398 617 16 165 367 186 105 34 .248 .346 .318 .664 KCA-CLE-NYY
13 Otis Nixon 53.6 2078 2.58 1983-1999 24-40 1709 5800 878 1379 11 318 585 694 620 186 .270 .343 .314 .658 NYY-CLE-MON-ATL-BOS-TEX-TOR-LAD-MIN
14 Brian Hunter 30.4 1192 2.55 1994-2003 23-32 1000 3659 500 882 25 241 243 581 260 61 .264 .313 .346 .660 HOU-DET-SEA-CIN-COL-PHI
15 Luis Aparicio 91.7 3635 2.52 1956-1973 22-39 2601 11230 1335 2677 83 791 736 742 506 136 .262 .311 .343 .653 CHW-BAL-BOS
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/9/2014.

If your’e wondering about the lack of old-time players on the list above, you are right to be suspicious as the derivation of Rbaser is based on much more data for recent players that is unavailable for earlier players. That said, old-time players will be limited in their ability to build up sizable Rbaser scores because of their generally lower stolen base efficiency (often much lower) than for recent players, particularly those of the very recent past.

I don’t mean to minimize the importance of getting on base by looking at ratios per TOB. Clearly, Wilson’s lower TOB totals were a significant detriment to his overall career value. But, for just looking at baserunning skill in isolation, it is startling to me to see how much Wilson outdistances himself from even the top contenders.

To close, here is that quiz I told you about.

Willie Wilson has one of only two seasons since 1946 with a particular offensive accomplishment that was achieved 29 times from 1901 to 1945, including on two occasions by each of these players.

Ty Cobb
Red Rolfe
Lloyd Waner
Earle Combs
Tris Speaker
Charlie Gehringer
Kiki Cuyler
Woody English

What is the seasonal offensive feat, and who is the other player (besides Willie Wilson) to have accomplished this since 1946?

Congratulations to John Autin and Artie Z! They teamed up to identify Willie Wilson and Chuck Knobluach as the only players with a season since 1946 with 125 runs scored, excluding their own home runs. Here’s the list of all those seasons since 1901.

Rk Player HR R Year Age Tm G PA H BB SO SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Eddie Collins 0 137 1912 25 PHA 153 673 189 101 28 63 22 .348 .450 .435 .885 *4
2 Eddie Stanky 1 128 1945 29 BRO 153 725 143 148 42 6 .258 .417 .333 .751 *4/6
3 Woody English 1 131 1929 23 CHC 144 699 168 68 50 13 .276 .352 .339 .691 *6
4 Donie Bush 1 126 1911 23 DET 150 692 130 98 64 40 .232 .349 .287 .636 *6
5 Lloyd Waner 2 133 1927 21 PIT 150 683 223 37 23 14 .355 .396 .410 .806 *87/4
6 Johnny Mostil 2 135 1925 29 CHW 153 715 181 90 52 43 20 .299 .400 .421 .822 *8
7 Charlie Jamieson 2 130 1923 30 CLE 152 746 222 80 37 18 14 .345 .422 .447 .869 *7/8
8 Willie Wilson 3 133 1980 24 KCR 161 745 230 28 81 79 10 .326 .357 .421 .778 *78/H
9 Ty Cobb 3 144 1915 28 DET 156 701 208 118 43 96 38 .369 .486 .487 .973 *8
10 Red Rolfe 4 143 1937 28 NYY 154 741 179 90 53 4 2 .276 .365 .378 .743 *5
11 Lloyd Waner 5 134 1929 23 PIT 151 726 234 37 20 6 .353 .395 .479 .874 *8
12 Paul Waner 6 142 1928 25 PIT 152 698 223 77 16 6 .370 .446 .547 .992 *93
13 Earle Combs 6 137 1927 28 NYY 152 725 231 62 31 15 6 .356 .414 .511 .925 *8/H
14 Lu Blue 6 131 1922 25 DET 145 681 175 82 48 8 5 .300 .392 .414 .807 *3/H
15 Ginger Beaumont 7 137 1903 26 PIT 141 674 209 44 18 23 .341 .390 .444 .833 *8
16 George Sisler 8 134 1922 29 SLB 142 655 246 49 14 51 19 .420 .467 .594 1.061 *3/H
17 Tris Speaker 8 137 1920 32 CLE 150 674 214 97 13 10 13 .388 .483 .562 1.045 *8/H
18 Ty Cobb 8 147 1911 24 DET 146 654 248 44 43 83 .420 .467 .621 1.088 *8
19 Earle Combs 9 143 1932 33 NYY 144 675 190 81 16 3 9 .321 .405 .455 .860 *87/H
20 Max Carey 10 140 1922 32 PIT 155 732 207 80 26 51 2 .329 .408 .459 .868 *8/7
21 Tris Speaker 10 136 1912 24 BOS 153 675 222 82 36 52 28 .383 .464 .567 1.031 *8
22 Jesse Burkett 10 142 1901 32 STL 142 673 226 59 70 27 .376 .440 .509 .949 *7
23 Chuck Knoblauch 13 140 1996 27 MIN 153 701 197 98 74 45 14 .341 .448 .517 .965 *4/DH
24 Kiki Cuyler 13 155 1930 31 CHC 156 741 228 72 49 37 .355 .428 .547 .975 *97
25 Red Rolfe 14 139 1939 30 NYY 152 731 213 81 41 7 6 .329 .404 .495 .899 *5
26 Woody English 14 152 1930 24 CHC 156 755 214 100 72 3 .335 .430 .511 .941 *5*6
27 Nap Lajoie 14 145 1901 26 PHA 131 582 232 24 9 27 .426 .463 .643 1.106 *46
28 Charlie Gehringer 15 144 1936 33 DET 154 731 227 83 13 4 1 .354 .431 .555 .987 *4
29 Charlie Gehringer 16 144 1930 27 DET 154 700 201 69 17 19 15 .330 .404 .534 .938 *4
30 Kiki Cuyler 18 144 1925 26 PIT 153 701 220 58 56 41 13 .357 .423 .598 1.021 *98
31 Harlond Clift 20 145 1936 23 SLB 152 701 174 115 68 12 4 .302 .424 .514 .938 *5/7
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/9/2014.

47 thoughts on “Is Willie Wilson baseball’s best baserunner ever?”

    1. David Ober

      Fastest in a pure sense? Or solely in a baseball sense? I can’t imagine Metzger beating Willie Wilson in a foot race. I believe Wilson ran a 9.4 100 yard dash?

      Reply ↓
  2. Brent

    As a Royals fan born in the same year as the franchise itself, I grew up watching Willie and I do think he was absolutely the fastest player I ever saw play baseball. He is one player whose ability to get on base may be underestimated by his OBP because reaching by error is not reflected in that number, but I can say I sure remember a lot of rushed and inaccurate throws on his ground balls (I have no proof of this and I presume it would be hard to compile the evidence)

    Reply ↓
    1. Doug Post author

      Actually, there is a way.

      Using Wilson’s 2801 TOBwe number and 8317 PAs, that’s a .337 proportion, about an 11 point bump on his .326 OBP.

      Reply ↓
  3. birtelcom

    In one of Bill James’ abstracts, he riffs on the high degree to which William (“Willie”) Wilson and William (“Mookie”) Wilson were very similar players in style, in addition to being born just months apart. Contemporaries with the same name and same style — almost doppelgangers. Which, James observed, raises the eerie coincidence that Edgar Allan Poe’s creepy, classic tale about doppelgangers is titled, after the name it gives to its own pair of identically named copycat contemporaries, “William Wilson”.

    Reply ↓
    1. Doug Post author

      Somehow, I’ve never thought of Mookie as similar to Willie. Looking again at their stats, I still don’t, other than having a similar slash.

      Willie vs. Mookie (all favoring Willie)
      – twice as much WAR
      – 5 times as much WAA
      – twice as many SB
      – 100 times the dWAR
      – 3 times the Rbaser

      Reply ↓
      1. birtelcom

        I think if you need to focus on rates rather than cumulative totals to see what Bill meant (he was comparing them when they were both playing, not after the fact). Both free-swinging, low walks, low-homers, speed guys; very similar OBP/SLG/OPS/OPS+ profiles.

        Reply ↓
        1. Doug Post author

          Thanks for the extra bit of info (a contemporaneous assessment). Makes more sense now.

          Reply ↓
  4. Voomo Zanzibar

    Red Rolfe sure had a lot of runs scored.
    Just over .17 * his PA.

    I ran that search for at least 1000 Games Played and there are 12 guys.
    Eight of them are at 1700+ runs.
    Then:

    1390 Joe D
    1186 Earle Combs
    1050 Hank Greenberg
    942 Red Rolfe
    1 …and Jose Mesa

    Reply ↓
    1. Doug Post author

      Here’s that list.

      Pretty cool that a pitcher makes the top 20 by PA.

      Player R From To Age
      1 Rickey Henderson 13346 2295 1979 2003 20-44
      2 Ty Cobb 13084 2246 1905 1928 18-41
      3 Barry Bonds 12606 2227 1986 2007 21-42
      4 Babe Ruth 10622 2174 1914 1935 19-40
      5 Charlie Gehringer 10244 1774 1924 1942 21-39
      6 Ted Williams 9788 1798 1939 1960 20-41
      7 Jimmie Foxx 9676 1751 1925 1945 17-37
      8 Lou Gehrig 9663 1888 1923 1939 20-36
      9 Joe DiMaggio 7673 1390 1936 1951 21-36
      10 Earle Combs 6513 1186 1924 1935 25-36
      11 Hank Greenberg 6097 1050 1930 1947 19-36
      12 Red Rolfe 5406 942 1931 1942 22-33
      13 Lefty O’Doul 3658 624 1919 1934 22-37
      14 Mike Trout 1640 282 2011 2014 19-22
      15 Ed Delahanty 1331 231 1901 1903 33-35
      16 Billy Zitzmann 1142 197 1919 1929 23-33
      17 Larry Lintz 756 137 1973 1978 23-28
      18 John McGraw 564 100 1901 1906 28-33
      19 Maurice Archdeacon 449 84 1923 1925 24-26
      20 Blue Moon Odom 447 76 1964 1976 19-31
      Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
      Generated 5/9/2014.
      Reply ↓
    1. Doug Post author

      Nope.

      Just ran that query. Returns 135 seasons since 1901, including 11 since 1946 (three by Willie Wilson).

      Reply ↓
  6. Jimbo

    How high do you suppose Ichiro’s Rbase might’ve been if he had started his career in MLB at age 22 or 23?

    He racked up 59 rbaser started from age 27, seems pretty strong since baserunning peak tends to be early.

    Reply ↓
    1. Doug Post author

      Here are those leaders for age 27-40.

      Player From To Age
      1 Davey Lopes 80.2 1972 1985 27-40
      2 Rickey Henderson 77.6 1986 1999 27-40
      3 Lou Brock 69.7 1966 1979 27-40
      4 Willie Wilson 66.3 1983 1994 27-38
      5 Joe Morgan 65.5 1971 1984 27-40
      6 Max Carey 64.4 1917 1929 27-39
      7 Ozzie Smith 61.9 1982 1995 27-40
      8 Willie Mays 61.3 1958 1971 27-40
      9 Barry Larkin 59.6 1991 2004 27-40
      10 Ichiro Suzuki 59.1 2001 2014 27-40
      Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
      Generated 5/9/2014.

       
      And the same group, from career start to age 40

      Player From To Age
      1 Rickey Henderson 138.1 1979 1999 20-40
      2 Willie Wilson 120.4 1976 1994 20-38
      3 Max Carey 88.0 1910 1929 20-39
      4 Barry Larkin 80.2 1986 2004 22-40
      5 Davey Lopes 80.2 1972 1985 27-40
      6 Joe Morgan 80.2 1963 1984 19-40
      7 Ozzie Smith 80.0 1978 1995 23-40
      8 Lou Brock 77.9 1961 1979 22-40
      9 Willie Mays 76.8 1951 1971 20-40
      10 Ichiro Suzuki 59.1 2001 2014 27-40
      Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
      Generated 5/9/2014.

       
      So, it’s not immediately obvious that players compile most of their Rbaser early in their careers. Evidently, takes some experience and savvy to add to speed to fully develop superior baserunning skills.

      Reply ↓
  7. Richard Chester

    Running R > 130 and triples > HR comes close. Six of the names made it twice, two made it once. There are 28 seasons on the list but with 4 after 1945.

    Reply ↓
  8. Jimbo

    Also, I just noticed how odd it is that in such a large sample size, Ichiro hits left handers better than right handers.

    I looked this up because I was curious if maybe he was benefiting from a platoon this year, but it appears that would not benefit him.

    And Ichiro came to mind because in his prime he was one of the quickest players to 1st base I ever saw (among good players anyways) A stat was recently posted showing the graphic of Billy Hamilton and Mike Trout compared to some other players and including Prince Fielder, and I was curious what that stat for young Ichiro was.

    Reply ↓
    1. mosc

      He hits differently against RHP and LHP, also adjusts his approach if they’re pitching inside or out. I mean it’s crazy watching him at the plate sometimes. His entire swing seems to look like somebody else pitch by pitch. When he was younger he used to do this inside out thing against LHP a lot where he would scrunch way up and slap the ball to short left field. I think if he knew and inside fastball was coming he could do it at an exceedingly high rate.

      I remember Sabathia used to get him out throwing fastballs up and in with that extra bit of velocity he used to have (95-96) saved for guys like Ichiro but after it became a pattern Ichiro actually contorted himself with his hands up high lowering his fulcrum seemingly below his waste and went through the ball putting it into the short right porch seating area.

      Reply ↓
  9. Cyril Morong

    Here is a similar study “The Greatest Base Thief” by Tom Hanrahan.

    http://www.philbirnbaum.com/btn2009-08.pdf

    Tom came up with Vince Coleman. I did, too. Wilson was third. See below

    Here two more by me that are similar (in addition the first one)

    What Were The Best Relative Base Stealing Careers?
    http://cybermetric.blogspot.com/2010/04/what-were-best-relative-base-stealing_7319.html

    What Were The Best Relative Base Stealing Seasons?
    http://cybermetric.blogspot.com/2010/04/what-were-best-relative-base-stealing.html

    Reply ↓
  11. Neil_L

    Very nice, thorough study, Doug! So much to digest….

    Your post motivated me to look up how Rbaser is calculated and it looks like the stat doesn`t miss much in terms of base running opportunities to advance.

    Trying to distill all the good stuff down to a nutshell, I take away that Willie Wilson made the most of his times on base and if he had been a more selective batter he would have easily surpassed Rickey as the all-time greatest base runner, hands down!

    It makes me wonder if the offensive potential of the team influences the degree of daring an individual shows on the bases. No real way to correlate the two, but my hypothesis would be that a runner wouldn`t risk an out by advancing an extra base if he had an offensive juggernaut for a lineup. As compared to a fast runner reaching base as part of a run-starved lineup.

    Reply ↓
    2. Jimbo

      This is why I feel batting speedy players leadoff is just plain silly. Stealing bases is a better risk to take when weak hitters are at the plate. Wby risk an out when you have a 3TO type hitter batting? That base is worth very little.

      Speedsters should bat 7th, and run wild and free while the 8 and 9 hitters bat.

      Reply ↓
      2. Michael Sullivan

        If your speedster is efficient running, and has a high OBP, then batting 1 or 2 makes sense because of all the extra PAs they will get.

        If you have good baserunning, but a mediocre bat, then the 6-7 slot sounds like a better idea.

        Reply ↓
  12. John Autin

    Excellent piece, Doug.

    I think most of us recall the BJHBA essay on Willie, particularly the claims that he “resented being thought of as a speed merchant” and “after 1980, he could have stolen twice as many bases if he had wanted to use his speed a little more.”

    Well … Yes, Wilson averaged 80+ SB at age 23-24, then never again reached 60. But he did average 45 SB from age 25-31 (80% success). He did rank 3rd in Rbaser in that span (1981-87), behind only two of the all-time greatest. And I’d suggest thinking about that “1980” dividing line.

    In 1980, Wilson played every game but one, went to bat 745 times, had 230 hits (many on the infield) and 15 triples, and attempted 89 steals. And then he famously flopped in the World Series, going 4 for 26 with 12 strikeouts.

    Maybe he was tired?

    I’m just speculating, but maybe Willie Wilson made a logical decision after that to chill the base-stealing. For a guy whose OBP isn’t great, I’m not sure there are 80+ situations a year where a steal attempt is really justified — or where the value added by a steal would make it worth the energy, even if the risk was very low.

    All great base thieves pad their totals with meaningless SB, including Rickey and Vince — and I don’t mean that as criticism, at all. I would just note that every player has to gauge what his body can withstand.

    Rickey played most of his career on grass, and he kept up a high SBA rate for many years. But Coleman and Wilson played on turf. Vince ran wild from age 23-27, then started breaking down at 28. Willie lasted longer, and maybe he deserves some credit for managing that.

    Reply ↓
    1. Doug Post author

      Good point, John, about artificial turf.

      For our younger readers, during the 1970s and 1980s, a good number of ballparks had artificial turf (by memory: St. Louis, KC, Minneapolis, Toronto, Montreal, Cincinnati, Houston, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Seattle). And, it wasn’t the shredded tire mulch of today. More like fuzzy concrete with varying degrees of padding ranging from virtually nothing (Astrodome) to fairly spongy (Metrodome). A real killer for your legs and your back.

      Reply ↓
      1. David Horwich

        Candlestick Park had turf from 1971-78.

        Comiskey Park had an artificial turf infield from 1969-75.

        Reply ↓
    2. Doug Post author

      For anyone who may be contemplating the quiz question, that 1980 season of Wilson’s that John highlighted is the one to look at.

      Reply ↓
      1. John Autin

        I tried 131+ runs and no more than 10 HRs. That does yield just 2 years post-WWII, by Wilson and Dom DiMaggio. But it yields multiples only for Rolfe, L.Waner, Combs, Speaker and Cobb — one for English, none for Cuyler and Gehringer

        Feels like 130+ runs has to be part of it.

        Reply ↓
      2. Doug Post author

        It does involve a particular number of runs scored (but not 130), and home runs also figure in.

        Reply ↓
        1. John Autin

          Dagnabbit! Tried 131+ Runs and more Triples than HRs. But that leaves Rolfe & Gehringer one season short, and yields three such years since 1946, rather than the target two.

          Reply ↓
  13. Doug Post author

    Congratulations to John Autin and Artie Z, our quiz winners.

    Artie Z correctly identified Chuck Knoblauch as the player who, together with Willie Wilson, have the only seasons since 1946, as John Autin determined, with 125 runs scored, excluding their own home runs. These seasons didn’t used to be so unusual, with 29 of them from 1901 to 1945.

    Reply ↓
    1. Artie Z.

      I was looking at Clift’s 1936 season and saw he led the team with 20 HRs but basically batted 2nd all year. Which, given that he led the team in OBP, probably wasn’t a bad spot for him (Lyn Lary hit leadoff and had a .404 OBP so they even had a reasonable leadoff hitter).

      Of course it didn’t really matter when their AL competition included the 1936 Yankees. The lowest OBP for any Yankee batter with 170 or more PAs was .352, by some rookie who went by DiMaggio. Wonder if he’d stick in the bigs with that showing? The Yankees were so good that everyone with more than 106 PAs posted a .338 OBP or better – including pitcher Red Ruffing, with a .348 OBP in 140 PAs. And in fairness to Ben Chapman (who posted that .338 OBP in 156 PAs), his season OBP (including his time in Washington) was .389.

      Reply ↓
      1. Doug

        18 of the 29 seasons up to 1945 were in the AL, but the Yankees had just 4 of those, Rolfe’s two and Combe’s two. Detroit had 6 with two each for Gehringer and Cobb, plus Blue and Bush.

        The Pirates (6) and Cubs (3) had most of the NL seasons. Two of those Cub seasons were by Woody English, in consecutive seasons, the first with just one HR and the second with 14.

        Reply ↓
  14. John Autin

    Rbaser leaders just for ages 20-29: #10 on that list — and #8 if you make it (baserunning + DP) — was a guy with just 116 steals in that span, over 100 less than anyone else in that top 20.

    The Commerce Comet.

    Reply ↓
  15. Brent

    Just one more thing on Wilson. Often when determining how much speed a player has, triples are focused on, which makes sense you pretty much have to be very fast to hit a lot of triples, but one stat that I have a feeling Willie blows away the Ricky Hendersons and Vince Colemans of the world is Inside the park Home runs. Willie hit 41 career homers, but 13 of them were inside the park. That is a high number and one that I suspect is a post Dead Ball era record. Now, it is probably true that his home park helped in hitting inside the park home runs (it appears if I counted right 8 of the 13 were at Royals Stadium).

    Just to compare some fast players: Ricky Henderson hit 1 inside the park HR. Vince Coleman hit 1. Willie Mays hit 8.

    Reply ↓

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *