Couldn’t quite pull together a WS preview, so I’ll offer this up as a chat space.
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This year’s World Series teams had a combined .546 winning percentage in the regular season (.549 Royals, .543 Giants), second-lowest in WS history to the 1973 A’s-Mets matchup (.545 combined). The winner will have the 4th-lowest winning percentage of any World Series champ, after the 2006 Cards (.516, 83-78), the 1987 Twins (.525, 85-77), and the 2000 Yankees (.540, 87-74), and each of those won its division by at least 1.5 games.
This bothers some folks, but not me. The Giants and Royals are good teams, playing good ball — they knocked off four division winners by a combined 14-2 — and it could be a great Series. This is Year 46 of divisional play, so reaching the Series without the league’s best record isn’t quite breaking news. Playoffs in any format are always a crapshoot.
Don’t like the wild card? Ask the ’93 Giants or 1980 Orioles if they deserved to stay home with 100+ wins, or the other six teams from 1969-93 that missed the playoffs with 97+ wins. The ’78 Royals won their 7-team division while two AL East clubs stayed home with better marks; the ’79 Angels finished worse than three AL East teams that got stiffed; and the 84-win Royals in ’84 skated past four AL East teams that won more. I’ll take the wild card.
Don’t like the best-of-five first round? Well, sure. Yet the 32 best-of-five LCS from 1969-84 had just one major upset, based on season records — the ’73 Mets over the Reds — and one other win by a team with at least five fewer wins (1980 Royals over Yankees). Teams with a season edge of 5 games or more went 14-2 in those best-of-five sets. On the flip side, in the nine years of best of seven LCS before the wild card, we saw four teams win it all by upsetting two objectively better squads — the ’85 Royals (-8 to Blue Jays, -10 to Cardinals), the ’87 Twins (-13 Tigers, -10 Cards), the ’88 Dodgers (-6 Mets, -10 A’s) and the ’90 Reds (-4 Bucs, -12 A’s).
For sure, we’ve had upsets in the best-of-five LDS. But not all of those were by wild-card teams, and some even saw division winners beating stronger wild-card teams (’97 Tribe over Yanks, 2001 Yanks over A’s).
Here are the 12 wild-card teams that reached the World Series. Out of 24 series they won to reach the Fall Classic, nine were over teams that won at least 5 more games (bold), while six were against teams with worse records (italics):
- 1997 Marlins, 92-70 — LDS, 3-0 over 90-72 Giants … LCS, 4-2 over 101-61 Bravos
- 2000 Mets, 94-68 — LDS, 3-1 over 97-65 Giants … LCS, 4-1 over 95-67 Cards
- 2002 Angels, 99-63 — LDS, 3-1 over 103-58 Yanks … LCS, 4-1 over 94-67 Twins
- 2002 Giants, 95-66 — LDS, 3-0 over 101-59 Bravos … LCS, 4-1 over 97-65 Cards
- 2003 Marlins, 91-71 — LDS, 3-1 over 100-61 Giants … LCS, 4-3 over 88-74 Cubs
- 2004 Red Sox, 98-64 — LDS, 3-0 over 92-70 Angels … LCS, 4-3 over 101-61 Yankees
- 2005 Astros, 89-73 — LDS, 3-1 over 90-72 Bravos … LCS, 4-2 over 100-62 Cards
- 2006 Tigers, 95-67 — LDS, 3-1 over 97-65 Yanks … LCS, 4-0 over 93-69 A’s
- 2007 Rockies, 90-73 — LDS, 3-0 over 89-73 Phillies … LCS, 4-0 over 90-72 D’backs
- 2011 Cardinals, 90-72 — LDS, 3-2 over 102-60 Phillies … LCS, 4-2 over 96-66 Brewers
- 2014 Royals, 89-73 — LDS, 3-0 over 98-64 Angels … LCS, 4-0 over 96-66 Orioles
- 2014 Giants, 88-74 — LDS, 3-1 over 96-66 Nationals … LCS, 4-1 over 90-72 Cards
If there’s shame in reaching the playoffs with a W% under .550, it’s shared by 19 division winners in the 20 wild-card years, and more than one-eighth of all division winners. And for as long as we’ve had divisions, we’ve accepted that postseason play can trump season-long excellence. The A’s of 1972-74 never had baseball’s best record, ranking 3rd, 4th and 4th, with fewer total wins than the Reds and Dodgers. Their closest division pursuer never topped 88 wins. So what makes them a great team, except winning in October?
The second wild card made the path harder for teams that don’t win their division. Both the Giants and Royals used their ace in the play-in game, thus had him just once in the LDS, but still won easily. Is that a knock on the format, or on the teams they defeated? Or maybe it’s just something that happened. Remember, in the first two years of this format, no wild card reached the Series, and the only one to win an LDS scored 4 runs in the 9th to win Game 5 on the road.
Playoffs are a crapshoot, including the World Series: The winners’ average edge is less than one win, and teams with at least 5 more wins are just 36-34. (Records pro rated to 162 games.) Think of what the “best teams” showed us in these playoffs. Are we sure they’d be better equipped right now for a best-of-seven than these clubs that have already won two series and a do-or-die game?
I’m excited to see the Royals and Giants meet for the championship. And I can’t think of two more deserving teams.
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This World Series features the fewest combined home runs for any full season since 1947, when the Yankees (AL #1 with 115 HRs) met the Dodgers (NL #6 with 83). Those teams combined for 5 HRs in a 7-game Series, yet averaged 4.8 runs per team-game.
- Out of 52 subsequent Series lasting at least 5 games, the only one with fewer than 6 total HRs was the ’85 Royals-Cards tilt, when each team hit a pair. That was a low-scoring Series, with 41 total runs (not quite 3 per team-game), and 11 of those by KC in the clincher.
Kansas City’s 95 HRs are the fewest since 1945 by an AL champ. The ’45 Tigers (77 HRs) met the Cubs (54 HRs) in a 7-game Series that saw only 3 HRs, but 4.4 runs per team-game.
The Giants have already matched the postseason high of 5 homerless wins, and their 5-2 homerless record is tops among those seven teams. The last three in that group were the Cardinals of 2006, ’11 and ’13.
- The Giants have homered in 3 of 10 postseason games. In the wild-card era, the fewest games with a homer by a WS champ is 7, by the 2003 Marlins.
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Lorenzo Cain has hit 3rd in all eight postseason games, after no such games before Sept. 13. He started twice as many games in the 8th slot as in the 3rd (28-14), and compiled two-thirds of his PAs in the 6th-8th slots. No other player in at least 20 years has hit 3rd in five or more postseason starts after 10+ regular-season starts hitting 8th.
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KC’s killer bullpen trio has allowed 3 runs in 25.2 innings this postseason. To picture the impact of that workload and effectiveness, imagine a team with two starting pitchers twice as good as Clayton Kershaw for a full season.
Starting pitchers own just two of the Royals’ eight postseason wins so far. In divisional play, only the 1979 Pirates went all the way with just two wins by starters (out of 7 wins in 10 games). No shock there, as the ’79 Bucs tied a record with 63 relief decisions (38-25); those decisions and wins remain 5th all-time. (Their closer trio combined for 50 saves, a 28-18 record and 346 relief innings.) In the wild-card era, the 4 SP wins by the 2003 Marlins are the fewest by a WS champ.
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Comparing pitchers’ hitting in the World Series since the DH was invented:
- NL — .126 BA (32-253), .150 SLG, 3 doubles, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 14 runs, 14 walks, 103 Ks, 22 sac bunts
- AL — .085 BA (24-283), .120 SLG, 7 doubles, 1 HR, 11 RBI, 14 runs, 10 walks, 139 Ks, 29 sac bunts
The last three RBI hits by a World Series pitcher came from Barry Zito (2012), Andy Pettitte (2009) and Joe Blanton (2008), who hit a combined .113 in their regular-season careers. Blanton, who struck the last home run — the only one for the NL since Bob Gibson — had no other extra-base hits in 226 career at-bats.
The last World Series pitcher to notch at least 0.2 Win Probability Added as a batter was General Crowder in 1935 Game 4. In a 2-1 victory, Crowder singled and scored for a 3rd-inning tie, and “drove home” Flea Clifton with two out in the 6th on an error by SS Billy Jurges, right after a dropped fly by LF Augie Galan. The last to score 0.2 WPA on one event was Vic Raschi, 1952 Game 6. His infield hit scored the lead run from second with two out in the 7th, and the Yanks held on to square the Series.
The last two-hit game was by Chad Ogea in 1997 Game 6. A 2-run single off Kevin Brown that broke a scoreless tie in the second was Ogea’s first hit as a professional. He later doubled and scored Cleveland’s last run in a 4-1 win, setting up the dramatic Game 7 with his second win against Florida’s ace. Ogea finished his pro career 6 for 50 at bat, with no RBI or extra-base hits outside that game.
The last pitcher hit by a pitch was Nelson Briles, by Mickey Lolich in 1968 Game 5. Pitchers have over 750 plate appearances since then. This year, all 75 players with at least 600 PAs were nicked at least once. But pitchers are plunked at just one-third the rate of position players, even after sac bunts are removed from the totals.
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When the Royals last reached the World Series, 1985, the Giants were in the midst of their longest Series drought, spanning 26 seasons between 1962 and ’89.
The only player to appear for both teams in the World Series (or even the postseason) was Pat Sheridan, with the ’85 Royals and the ’89 Giants. His tying home run off Tom Henke in Game 2 of the ’85 ALCS remains the only postseason jack by a KC pinch-hitter, and their only blast in the 9th inning or later before this season.
Among the six to play 100 games in a year for both teams, Melky Cabrera has an interesting connection. Signed for a song in 2011, he gave KC out-of-the-blue numbers (their only 200-hit season since 2000), then was swapped for erratic starter Jonathan Sanchez. While hitting even better for the Giants — and shining in his first All-Star Game, held in KC — Melky was suspended for 50 games on August 15 for PED use. It seemed a blow to the Giants, then tied for 1st, but they surged to the division crown with a 30-15 finish, and when Melky became eligible during the playoffs, he wasn’t activated. Giants outfielders hit just .209 with 15 RBI in 16 postseason games, but the team scored enough to win it all. Meanwhile, Sanchez predictably flamed out, and was dealt for the equally struggling Jeremy Guthrie, who was then 33-57 in the last 3-1/2 years. An extreme flyball pitcher, Guthrie quickly found his niche with a strong defensive outfield, posting a 3.16 ERA in 14 starts for KC to land a 3-year extension.
The only player with more than one 100-game year for both teams was Michael Tucker, KC’s top draft pick in 1992. Traded to Atlanta in ’97 for a young Jermaine Dye, Tucker set a franchise postseason WPA record of .812 in Game 5 of the ’98 NLCS, with three scoring hits capped by a come-from-behind 3-run bomb off Kevin Brown.
At the time of the Strike in 1994, the LA Dodgers led the NL West with a record of 58-56 (.509). The AL West leaders, the Texas Rangers, were 52-62 (.456). Cleveland (66-47) and Atlanta (68-46) were the best 2nd-place teams at the time.
If playoffs had started right then:
NL
ATL vs MTL (74-40)
LA vs CIN (66-48, a half game ahead of HOU)
AL
CLE vs NYy (70-43)
TEX vs SOX (67-46)
In 1981, the Reds (then in the NL West) and Cardinals (then in the NL East) had the two best overall records, but both missed the playoffs because they didn’t win either half of the season. The next four best NL teams overall did make it, including the Dodgers (3rd behind the Cards and Reds) who went all the way.
It was even worse in the AL. The top two teams overall (As and Brewers) made it but the other two playoff teams ranked 4th (Yankees) and 10th (Royals) in the AL overall.
Great point One, but Atl and Montreal would not have played each in the lds as they were both in the east. Teams with the best record would not play the wildcard team from their own divisions until 2012.
Ahh, those expos, 20 years late and I still think, what if?
In the playoffs, KC scored a man from third with less than two out in 11 of 15 opportunities, with just one strikeout. Tonight, two whiffs in their first two chances.
WS Game 1 winners are 69-40 in winning it all.* But those winning Game 1 on the road are only 25-20. And those winning Game 1 in a blowout (5+ margin) are only 13-10, with one of those wins in the 1919 fix.
* Counting 1907’s Game 2, after a tie in Game 1.
Hunter Pence is only the sixth hitter to homer in the top of the first in Game 1 of a World Series, following:
Mickey Mantle, 1956
Roger Maris, 1960
Frank Robinson and Brooks Robinson, both in 1966 (successive at bats off Don Drysdale)
Chase Utley, 2008
The Yankees lost both the Mantle and Maris games (ultimately winning the 1956 Series but not 1960). The O’s swept the 1966 Series. The Phillies won the Utley game and the 2008 Series.
The O’s was an appropriate term for Baltimore pitching and Dodger hitting in 1966. Scores of 5-2, 6-0, 1-0, and 1-0. Game One made a World Series hero of Moe Drabowsky, whose previous claim to fame was giving up Stan Musial’s 3000th hit.
That ’66 Series was also notable for 20 year old rookie Jim Palmer out pitching “The Left Arm of God”, in Koufax’ final appearance.
The O’s would have likely won that game regardless but the Dodger’s defense committed 6 (!) errors, including 3 by Willie Davis in the same inning.
Salvador Perez’s home run was the first by a catcher in a home team game 1 loss. Teams getting a homer from their catcher in game 1 are 8-3 in the World Series, 7-2 when winning game 1 but only 1-1 when losing.
That one series win when losing game 1 was in 1981 when Steve Yeager launched a two out solo shot off starter Ron Guidry after the Yankees had taken an early 5-0 lead (not unlike yesterday’s game 1).
WS homers as first play of game: Davy Jones 1909, Gene Woodling ’53, Al Smith ’54, Lou Brock ’68, Pete Rose ’72, Lenny Dykstra ’86, Rickey ’89, Derek Jeter ’00, Johnny Damon ’04, and now Gregor Blanco.
Jones not only didn’t homer in the 1909 season, he had just 2 doubles and 2 triples out of 57 hits.
Woodling was an underrated hitter who led the AL with .429 OBP in ’53. In 26 WS games, he hit .318/.442/.529 with 21 runs.
Smith homered leading off Game 2 in ’54, after Dusty Rhodes won Game 1 (“The Catch”) with a pinch-homer in the 10th. So that’s the only instance of two straight homers across two games.
Five (5) pitchers in one inning.
Strickland had a good inning last night, and Bochy brought him in to face two RHBs tonight (all 4 HRs in the playoffs came from lefties). I’m still shocked that he pitched when the game was close.
But then, I was shocked that he made the WS roster.
Was it just me, or did Infante’s home run trot (and Perez’s ahead of him) seem unusually slow, especially for a player lacking a slugger’s credentials (or physique)? I’m thinking that, among other things, was what riled Strickland.
Hopefully (for the Giants’ sake), that will be the end of their infatuation with Strickland. The kid has great stuff but, until he gets better at hitting his spots or adding some movement to his offerings, they won’t get out big league hitters consistently.
@17/Doug;
Nah; Strickland just thought that he was acting in the capacity of “The Official Enforcer Of The Unwritten Rules Of Baseball”.
In other words, he was being an utter total jerk, and that whole confrontation that turned out to be a non-confrontation was completely unnecessary.
Perhaps the Giants were relying on his regular season success, where his WAA was greater than his WAR.
I wouldn’t think that was possible, and thought he might be fairly unique, but found that there were 30 pitchers since 1901 who had more than 3.8 WAA and more WAA than WAR. These are typically cups of coffee type seasons – Edgmer Escalona had the most IP with 25.2. Kimbrel is probably the most notable name on the list, with his 2010 season. I wouldn’t have thought it was possible to have more WAA than WAR, but apparently it’s due to the relief pitcher adjustment.
There are actually 512 “pitchers” who have WAA greater than zero and WAA greater than WAR in a single season going back to 1971 (including such luminaries as Robin Ventura and Doug Dascenzo – quite a few of these are actually position players who pitched in a single game). Once the pitchers from the 1884 UA season are removed, Escalona again becomes the pitcher with the most innings.
I don’t find any single seasons for hitters with WAA greater than WAR.
Tonight’s home 6th was the second case of two one-batter RPs in one WS inning before the 8th. The other was the Giants in 2002, Game 2, also the 6th.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ANA/ANA200210200.shtml
The only other team with two RPs facing one batter in different innings before the 8th was the ’56 Yankees, Game 2 — Johnny Kucks in the 2nd (when Brooklyn scored 6 to tie), and Bob Turley in the 5th (after the Dodgers went ahead 11-7).
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BRO/BRO195610050.shtml
When a pitcher not yet turned age 24 starts Game 2, the team is now 12-5. In all other starts by that age group, the team is 44-46.
Ventura is the first of those under-24 Game 2 starters not to get a decision.
All nine Giants in the starting lineup had exactly one hit in Game 2 tonight. The only other team to do that in a game this season was the Red Sox, on April 6 against the Brewers — the Red Sox were shut out in that game.
All starters with exactly one hit has occurred 68 times during the regular season from 1914-2014. Tonight was the first time it happened in postseason.
I’ve found in the past that for some older games the PI can be less than reliable in identifying who is a “starter” and who is not. Maybe that’s been fixed, but I’ve been a little wary of searches involving the “starter” button for older games.
Cool factoid, thanks!
The line for Casilla in game 2: 1-3 IP, 1 K, 1 BF, 1 pitch (1 strike)
B-R gives Casilla credit for all 6 pitches of the AB, possibly due to a limitation in how their software handles mid-batter substitutions.
Does anyone have any word from above on whether they’ll change this, so that we can accurately search for other historical instances of a pitcher recording a strikeout with fewer than 3 pitches thrown in the game?
How about this match?
Reg. Season, Hitters vs. KC in the 8th Inn.: 45 ERs (2.50 ERA), 50 R, .593 OPS
Reg. Season, Hitters vs. SF in the 8th Inn.: 45 ERs (2.50 ERA), 50 R, .593 OPS
Jeremy Guthrie starts for KC tonight.
Most Regular Season Losses By a Pitcher, 2007-2014:
T1. Jeremy Guthrie and Edwin Jackson 100
3. A.J. Burnett 92
4. Paul Maholm 89
5. Kevin Correia 88
Guthrie’s 100 regular season Losses have come in his age 28-35 seasons. The most recent pitchers to total at least 100 losses over their age 28-35 seasons:
Jeremy Guthrie (2007-2014) 100 Losses
Frank Tanana (1982-1989) 100 Losses
Nolan Ryan (1975-1982) 100 Losses
Jerry Koosman (1971-1978) 107 Losses
Ferguson Jenkins (1971-1978) 100 Losses
Most 28-35 losses since 1901.
WAR also indicated:
129 … 27.7 … Al Orth
125 … 38.8 … Mickey Lolich
122 … 25.8 … Jack Powell
122 … 25.5 … Bob Friend
120 … 25.2 … Robin Roberts
119 … 54.8 … Gaylord Perry
118 … 12.1 … Casey Patten
118 … 27.5 … Ken Raffensberger
116 … 15.6 … Milt Gaston
115 … 54.5 … Walter Johnson
100 … 20.2 … Jeremy Guthrie
Or, since “wins” and “losses” are incidental statistics, here are the worst WHIPs of the past 8 years.
Minimum 800 Innings:
1.504 … Livan
1.487 … Zach Duke
1.478 … Pelfrey
1.473 … Millwood
1.472 … Blackburn
1.454 … Marquis
1.443 … Edwin Jackson
1.439 … Cook
1.439 … Zito
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Lowest WAR, 2007 – 2014
Minimum 800 innings:
1.7 … Correia
1.8 … Duke
1.9 … Livan
2.5 … Hochevar
3.0 … Zito
3.1 … Capuano
3.3 … Blackburn
3.9 … Marquis
4.5 … Blanton
4.9 … Westbrook
And Correia had, by a fair margin, the Most IP of this group.
Oooof.
Well at least Correia’s been compensated over $22 million for his troubles! 🙂
And this is his big free agent off-season.
Let’s see who throws the 34 year old some big bucks!
Correia had some decent seasons as relief pitcher / spot starter early in his career.
So he has 3.7 WAR in just over 1400 innings.
That is 380 innings for every WAR.
Since 1901, only these fellas have been allowed to complete 1300+ innings with 350+ IP per Pitching WAR:
1.1 … 1740 … Mike LaCoss
2.1 … 1768 … Tony Cloninger
2.3 … 1509 … Blue Moon Odom
3.0 … 1558 … Andy Hawkins
3.0 … 1365 … Buck Ross
3.1 … 1432 … Kaiser Wilhelm
3.7 … 1405 … Kevin Correia
3.7 … 1331 … Ownie Carroll
3.9 … 1495 … Tom Griffin
5.2 … 1976 … Jack Fisher
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That is 1582 IP per WAR for LaCoss.
He is easily the worst pitcher to throw that many innings.
But a couple of guys have managed a negative WAR in over 1000 IP:
-3.7 … 1099 … Randy Lerch (was he taxed for that?)
-2.6 … 1084 … Bill Bailey (changed his name to Axl Rose)
-0.2 … 1102 … Elmer Myers
All had a positive oWar.
Maybe they were just playing the wrong position.
Since 1901, most career wins with no WS starts:
324 – Nolan Ryan
318 – Phil Niekro
314 – Gaylord Perry
284 – Fergie Jenkins
266 – Eppa Rixey
260 – Ted Lyons
240 – Frank Tanana
224 – Jim Bunning
223 – Mel Harder
223 – Hooks Dauss
221 – Joe Niekro
216 – Charlie Hough
216 – Wilbur Cooper
215 – Jim Perry
214 – Tim Hudson
209 – Milt Pappas
204 – Bartolo Colon
203 – Roy Halladay
200 – Chuck Finley
200 – George Uhle
Hudson’s start will leave twenty 200-game winners sans a WS start. There’s still hope for Colon, theoretically…
Escobar collects the first hit on a WS game-opening pitch since Jeter’s homer in 2000 Game 4, and the 8th such hit in the Play Index. Welcome to the Series, Tim Hudson! (Pitch data are spotty before 1988, and all eight listed hits came since 1977.)
Ryan had a save of 2 1-3 innings in Game 3 of the 1969 Series. By the time the Mets were back in the Series, he had moved on, and none of the other three teams he played for made the Series before he retired.
In the game he saved, Gary Gentry had walked the bases loaded in the 7th inning of a 4-0 game to bring the tying run to the plate in the form of Paul Blair.
Most reg.-season starts at catcher for a WS participant, and what they hit in the Series:
– 148, Yogi Berra, 1950 — 3 for 15, HR, 2 RBI (4 games, won Series)
– 145, Muddy Ruel, 1924 — 2 for 21, no RBI, 6 walks (7 games, won)
– 145, Steve O’Neill, 1920 — 7 for 21, 2 RBI, .915 OPS (7 G, won)
– 143, Darren Daulton, 1993 — 5 for 23, 4 RBI, 3 XBH (6 G, lost)
– 143, Salvador Perez, 2014 — 2 for 8, HR, double (thru 2 G)
– 142, Bob O’Farrell, 1926 — 7 for 23, 2 RBI (7 G, won)
– 141, Berra, 1955 — 10 for 24, 1.083 OPS (7 G, lost)
– 141, Elson Howard, 1964 — 7 for 24, .414 OBP (7 G, lost)
– 141, Terry Kennedy, 1984 — 4 for 19, HR, double, 3 RBI (5 G, lost)
– 140, Berra, 1951 — 6 for 23, no RBI, 4 runs (6 G, won)
– 140, Jorge Posada, 2000 — 4 for 18, 5 walks (5 G, won)
Totals: .260 BA in 63 games (57 for 219), 5 HRs, 13 doubles, 21 RBI, 31 runs.
Teams went 6-4 in Series before Perez.
Perez is the first WS catcher since Posada 2000 with 135+ catching starts in the regular season. Yadi peaked at 132.
P.S. Johnny Bench’s catching starts in Series years: 136, 129, 120, 122.
Last time a lone run in the top of the 1st stood up for the whole game was
19231921, Game 8 — walks to Dave Bancroft and Ross Youngs, and a Roger Peckinpaugh error against Highpockets Kelly. Art Nehf, who had lost twice to Waite Hoyt by 3-0 and 3-1, tossed a 4-hitter to beat Hoyt for the championship.The last in the bottom of the 1st was 1963 G3 — Junior Gilliam walk, wild pitch, Tommy Davis single.
Those are the only two 1-0 Series games with the run in the 1st inning. (Unless I missed one.)
With great trepidation, I’m going to have to correct the Master. That Game 8 had to have been in 1921, not ’23 when the Yankees won in six.
Maybe the high (exaggerated?) reputation Waite Hoyt had for many years dates from this Series. As I recall, Richard Nixon—so consider the source—once pronounced Hoyt to be the greatest pitcher he ever saw. How Nixon saw him from California as he was growing up is a separate question.
Thanks for the correction, nsb, and the confirmation, Richard. The game I cited was indeed in 1921. (There was a 1-0 Giants win in ’23, on Casey Stengel’s home run in the 7th.)
It was 1921 not 1923. The Yankees won their first WS in 1923.
Would you have pinch-hit for Guthrie leading off the top of the 6th? Ahead 1-0, he had allowed just 2 singles, no other baserunners, facing one over the minimum thanks to a CS.
It would have been almost unprecedented. Besides injury and subterfuge (Curly Ogden), the only WS starter removed with a shutout going and no more than 2 baserunners was Oral Hildebrand, a somewhat surprising Game 4 starter as the ’39 Yanks swept to their 4th straight crown. He was pulled after 4 innings in a scoreless game, but not for a PH. Hildebrand never started again in the majors.
Two other non-CG with no runs and 3 BR or less:
– 6 IP, Lon Warneke, Cubs, 1935 G5. Warneke had thrown a shutout in G1, and relieved for 2 innings in G3 two days before the game in question.
– 8 IP, Chris Carpenter, Cards, 2006 G3. 82 pitches, 3 singles, left with a 5-0 lead.
I’m callin’ it: Herrera gives up the lead in the 7th. Bad, bad karma from his at-bat in the top half. Yost has three decent hitters on the bench, but hasn’t used any. No thought of stretching Davis and Holland for the last 9 outs?
And was there any reason *not* to send Dyson early in the count with Herrera batting? It looks as if Yost just wanted the inning to end. If Dyson had stolen, there would have been more pressure to PH for Herrera, which he clearly didn’t want. But if your mind’s made up anyway, why not run Dyson, let Herrera bat, and just laugh at the second-guessers? Seems like not running was meant to save face.
My thoughts exactly. Herrera must strike out the side in the bottom of the seventh to make a genius out of Yost.
Yost made it work. I don’t quite understand the exact timing of pulling Herrera for Finnegan, but most of Yost’s pitching moves in this month have made sense and worked out, so who am I to question?
Recent relievers swinging away in Series non-blowouts:
– 2013 G4, Felix Doubront — Batted top-7th, ahead 4-1, one out, none on. One run charged to him in the bottom half. Really a SP.
– 2013 G3, Brandon Workman — Batted top-9th, tied, one out, none on. First pro at-bat, whiffed (both like Herrera). Winning run charged to him in the bottom half. Long reliever.
– 2008 G5, J.C. Romero — After facing one batter, batted bottom-7th, ahead 4-3, two out, man on first. Leadoff hit in the 8th wiped off by DP.
– 2000 G4, Mariano Rivera — Pitched the whole 8th (4 batters), batted top-9th, no outs, man on first, popped to right. 1-2-3 9th for the save. Mariano Rivera.
– 1998 G4, Mariano Rivera — Faced 2 men in the 8th, led off the 9th ahead 3-0, popped out. 3-batter 9th to seal the sweep. Mariano Rivera.
John, if Dyson had gotten thrown out at second, the pitcher is going to lead off the 8th. Suppose Finnegan didn’t put out the fire in the seventh as effectively as he did and he let in the tying run. Maybe then you have to bring Wade Davis in to close out the 7th. It’s a tie game now, and you’re certainly going to bring Davis back to pitch the 8th.
Problem: your relief pitcher is now leading off the 8th inning of a tie game. I think not sending Dyson had something to do with avoiding that possible scenario.
Also, the timing of bringing in Finnegan was perhaps a mounting pitch-count issue. Herrera had thrown 27 pitches up to that point and threw 32 in Game 2. Dude’s not a robot (or maybe he is).
P.S. (also to Luis): I also thought Herrera was going to blow up in the 7th. He looked really tired in Game 2.
bstar, re: the timing of Finnegan’s entrance — What I don’t get is why Herrera even pitched to Belt, if that was to be his last batter. After he walked Pence leading off, three straight lefties were due up, and Mike Morse had already been used. Why not bring in Finnegan then? I doubt Bochy would have PH’d for Belt, who’s played every inning this postseason. The rest of the inning would have played out the same, all things being equal: Perez hits for Ishikawa, and Crawford stays in.
It just seems odd that Yost preferred Herrera to Finnegan for the Belt at-bat. Especially since Herrera hadn’t looked dominant in this game. Of course, he fanned Belt, so I’m just yappin’.
Yeah, that’s a tough one. My only guess is the pitch count, made more important considering there’s a game tonight and tomorrow.
I thought we were going to see Wade Davis go 2 last night, despite the three lefties in a row. His OPS against this year vs. LHB was .513 compared to Herrera’s .617.
Make that two LHH in a row for SF, not three.
Tim Hudson now has 12 career playoff starts and only one victory. No idea how to search the PI on this but has anyone else done anything remotely similar?
David P — Hudson’s alone if you set the minimum right at 12 starts. But it’s a small group, no matter how you slice it. Fewest postseason wins with at least 10 starts:
0 — Al Leiter — 0-3, 4.36 in 11 starts (team 6-5).
1 — C.J. Wilson — 1-6, 5.40 in 10 starts (team 3-7).
1 — Vida Blue — 1-5, 4.79 in 10 starts (team 2-8).
1 — Tim Hudson — 1-3, 3.48 in 12 starts (team 4-8 after tonight).
Attempting to save some face for one of my favorite players ever, I will note that Hudson’s 3.48 in 12 postseason starts is only 3 points off his career ERA of 3.45.
Bstar – Some other points in Hudson’s favor.
1) He’s raked in the playoffs, putting up a .818 OPS (not counting last night)
2) Seven of his 36 runs allowed have been unearned.
3) In one of his starts, he pitched a scoreless first, then left the game (presumably with an injury).
Thanks John! I’m honestly surprised that there are others who are similar to Hudson.
Not sure about a PI search, but Dwight Gooden always comes to mind. 12 games, 9 starts, no wins.
If only some first year closer hadn’t given up a HR to Sandy Alomar.
Jeremy Guthrie scores the first WS win by a starter with zero Ks *and* zero walks.
Last with no Ks was 1960, Bob Turley, 8.1 IP, 13 hits, 3 runs in a 16-3 win. Three others, two in 1924, one in 1918 by Babe Ruth.