2014 World Series: Chatter Up!

Couldn’t quite pull together a WS preview, so I’ll offer this up as a chat space.

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This year’s World Series teams had a combined .546 winning percentage in the regular season (.549 Royals, .543 Giants), second-lowest in WS history to the 1973 A’s-Mets matchup (.545 combined). The winner will have the 4th-lowest winning percentage of any World Series champ, after the 2006 Cards (.516, 83-78), the 1987 Twins (.525, 85-77), and the 2000 Yankees (.540, 87-74), and each of those won its division by at least 1.5 games.

This bothers some folks, but not me. The Giants and Royals are good teams, playing good ball — they knocked off four division winners by a combined 14-2 — and it could be a great Series. This is Year 46 of divisional play, so reaching the Series without the league’s best record isn’t quite breaking news. Playoffs in any format are always a crapshoot.

Don’t like the wild card? Ask the ’93 Giants or 1980 Orioles if they deserved to stay home with 100+ wins, or the other six teams from 1969-93 that missed the playoffs with 97+ wins. The ’78 Royals won their 7-team division while two AL East clubs stayed home with better marks; the ’79 Angels finished worse than three AL East teams that got stiffed; and the 84-win Royals in ’84 skated past four AL East teams that won more. I’ll take the wild card.

Don’t like the best-of-five first round? Well, sure. Yet the 32 best-of-five LCS from 1969-84 had just one major upset, based on season records — the ’73 Mets over the Reds — and one other win by a team with at least five fewer wins (1980 Royals over Yankees). Teams with a season edge of 5 games or more went 14-2 in those best-of-five sets. On the flip side, in the nine years of best of seven LCS before the wild card, we saw four teams win it all by upsetting two objectively better squads — the ’85 Royals (-8 to Blue Jays, -10 to Cardinals), the ’87 Twins (-13 Tigers, -10 Cards), the ’88 Dodgers (-6 Mets, -10 A’s) and the ’90 Reds (-4 Bucs, -12 A’s).

For sure, we’ve had upsets in the best-of-five LDS. But not all of those were by wild-card teams, and some even saw division winners beating stronger wild-card teams (’97 Tribe over Yanks, 2001 Yanks over A’s).

Here are the 12 wild-card teams that reached the World Series. Out of 24 series they won to reach the Fall Classic, nine were over teams that won at least 5 more games (bold), while six were against teams with worse records (italics):

  • 1997 Marlins, 92-70 — LDS, 3-0 over 90-72 GiantsLCS, 4-2 over 101-61 Bravos
  • 2000 Mets, 94-68 — LDS, 3-1 over 97-65 Giants … LCS, 4-1 over 95-67 Cards
  • 2002 Angels, 99-63 — LDS, 3-1 over 103-58 Yanks … LCS, 4-1 over 94-67 Twins
  • 2002 Giants, 95-66 — LDS, 3-0 over 101-59 Bravos … LCS, 4-1 over 97-65 Cards
  • 2003 Marlins, 91-71 — LDS, 3-1 over 100-61 GiantsLCS, 4-3 over 88-74 Cubs
  • 2004 Red Sox, 98-64 — LDS, 3-0 over 92-70 Angels … LCS, 4-3 over 101-61 Yankees
  • 2005 Astros, 89-73 — LDS, 3-1 over 90-72 Bravos … LCS, 4-2 over 100-62 Cards
  • 2006 Tigers, 95-67 — LDS, 3-1 over 97-65 Yanks … LCS, 4-0 over 93-69 A’s
  • 2007 Rockies, 90-73 — LDS, 3-0 over 89-73 Phillies … LCS, 4-0 over 90-72 D’backs
  • 2011 Cardinals, 90-72 — LDS, 3-2 over 102-60 PhilliesLCS, 4-2 over 96-66 Brewers
  • 2014 Royals, 89-73 — LDS, 3-0 over 98-64 AngelsLCS, 4-0 over 96-66 Orioles
  • 2014 Giants, 88-74 — LDS, 3-1 over 96-66 Nationals … LCS, 4-1 over 90-72 Cards

If there’s shame in reaching the playoffs with a W% under .550, it’s shared by 19 division winners in the 20 wild-card years, and more than one-eighth of all division winners. And for as long as we’ve had divisions, we’ve accepted that postseason play can trump season-long excellence. The A’s of 1972-74 never had baseball’s best record, ranking 3rd, 4th and 4th, with fewer total wins than the Reds and Dodgers. Their closest division pursuer never topped 88 wins. So what makes them a great team, except winning in October?

The second wild card made the path harder for teams that don’t win their division. Both the Giants and Royals used their ace in the play-in game, thus had him just once in the LDS, but still won easily. Is that a knock on the format, or on the teams they defeated? Or maybe it’s just something that happened. Remember, in the first two years of this format, no wild card reached the Series, and the only one to win an LDS scored 4 runs in the 9th to win Game 5 on the road.

Playoffs are a crapshoot, including the World Series: The winners’ average edge is less than one win, and teams with at least 5 more wins are just 36-34. (Records pro rated to 162 games.) Think of what the “best teams” showed us in these playoffs. Are we sure they’d be better equipped right now for a best-of-seven than these clubs that have already won two series and a do-or-die game?

I’m excited to see the Royals and Giants meet for the championship. And I can’t think of two more deserving teams.

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This World Series features the fewest combined home runs for any full season since 1947, when the Yankees (AL #1 with 115 HRs) met the Dodgers (NL #6 with 83). Those teams combined for 5 HRs in a 7-game Series, yet averaged 4.8 runs per team-game.

  • Out of 52 subsequent Series lasting at least 5 games, the only one with fewer than 6 total HRs was the ’85 Royals-Cards tilt, when each team hit a pair. That was a low-scoring Series, with 41 total runs (not quite 3 per team-game), and 11 of those by KC in the clincher.

Kansas City’s 95 HRs are the fewest since 1945 by an AL champ. The ’45 Tigers (77 HRs) met the Cubs (54 HRs) in a 7-game Series that saw only 3 HRs, but 4.4 runs per team-game.

The Giants have already matched the postseason high of 5 homerless wins, and their 5-2 homerless record is tops among those seven teams. The last three in that group were the Cardinals of 2006, ’11 and ’13.

  • The Giants have homered in 3 of 10 postseason games. In the wild-card era, the fewest games with a homer by a WS champ is 7, by the 2003 Marlins.

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Lorenzo Cain has hit 3rd in all eight postseason games, after no such games before Sept. 13. He started twice as many games in the 8th slot as in the 3rd (28-14), and compiled two-thirds of his PAs in the 6th-8th slots. No other player in at least 20 years has hit 3rd in five or more postseason starts after 10+ regular-season starts hitting 8th.

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KC’s killer bullpen trio has allowed 3 runs in 25.2 innings this postseason. To picture the impact of that workload and effectiveness, imagine a team with two starting pitchers twice as good as Clayton Kershaw for a full season.

Starting pitchers own just two of the Royals’ eight postseason wins so far. In divisional play, only the 1979 Pirates went all the way with just two wins by starters (out of 7 wins in 10 games). No shock there, as the ’79 Bucs tied a record with 63 relief decisions (38-25); those decisions and wins remain 5th all-time. (Their closer trio combined for 50 saves, a 28-18 record and 346 relief innings.) In the wild-card era, the 4 SP wins by the 2003 Marlins are the fewest by a WS champ.

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Comparing pitchers’ hitting in the World Series since the DH was invented:

  • NL — .126 BA (32-253), .150 SLG, 3 doubles, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 14 runs, 14 walks, 103 Ks, 22 sac bunts
  • AL — .085 BA (24-283), .120 SLG, 7 doubles, 1 HR, 11 RBI, 14 runs, 10 walks, 139 Ks, 29 sac bunts

The last three RBI hits by a World Series pitcher came from Barry Zito (2012), Andy Pettitte (2009) and Joe Blanton (2008), who hit a combined .113 in their regular-season careers. Blanton, who struck the last home run — the only one for the NL since Bob Gibson — had no other extra-base hits in 226 career at-bats.

The last World Series pitcher to notch at least 0.2 Win Probability Added as a batter was General Crowder in 1935 Game 4. In a 2-1 victory, Crowder singled and scored for a 3rd-inning tie, and “drove home” Flea Clifton with two out in the 6th on an error by SS Billy Jurges, right after a dropped fly by LF Augie Galan. The last to score 0.2 WPA on one event was Vic Raschi, 1952 Game 6. His infield hit scored the lead run from second with two out in the 7th, and the Yanks held on to square the Series.

The last two-hit game was by Chad Ogea in 1997 Game 6. A 2-run single off Kevin Brown that broke a scoreless tie in the second was Ogea’s first hit as a professional. He later doubled and scored Cleveland’s last run in a 4-1 win, setting up the dramatic Game 7 with his second win against Florida’s ace. Ogea finished his pro career 6 for 50 at bat, with no RBI or extra-base hits outside that game.

The last pitcher hit by a pitch was Nelson Briles, by Mickey Lolich in 1968 Game 5. Pitchers have over 750 plate appearances since then. This year, all 75 players with at least 600 PAs were nicked at least once. But pitchers are plunked at just one-third the rate of position players, even after sac bunts are removed from the totals.

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When the Royals last reached the World Series, 1985, the Giants were in the midst of their longest Series drought, spanning 26 seasons between 1962 and ’89.

The only player to appear for both teams in the World Series (or even the postseason) was Pat Sheridan, with the ’85 Royals and the ’89 Giants. His tying home run off Tom Henke in Game 2 of the ’85 ALCS remains the only postseason jack by a KC pinch-hitter, and their only blast in the 9th inning or later before this season.

Among the six to play 100 games in a year for both teams, Melky Cabrera has an interesting connection. Signed for a song in 2011, he gave KC out-of-the-blue numbers (their only 200-hit season since 2000), then was swapped for erratic starter Jonathan Sanchez. While hitting even better for the Giants — and shining in his first All-Star Game, held in KC — Melky was suspended for 50 games on August 15 for PED use. It seemed a blow to the Giants, then tied for 1st, but they surged to the division crown with a 30-15 finish, and when Melky became eligible during the playoffs, he wasn’t activated. Giants outfielders hit just .209 with 15 RBI in 16 postseason games, but the team scored enough to win it all. Meanwhile, Sanchez predictably flamed out, and was dealt for the equally struggling Jeremy Guthrie, who was then 33-57 in the last 3-1/2 years. An extreme flyball pitcher, Guthrie quickly found his niche with a strong defensive outfield, posting a 3.16 ERA in 14 starts for KC to land a 3-year extension.

The only player with more than one 100-game year for both teams was Michael Tucker, KC’s top draft pick in 1992. Traded to Atlanta in ’97 for a young Jermaine Dye, Tucker set a franchise postseason WPA record of .812 in Game 5 of the ’98 NLCS, with three scoring hits capped by a come-from-behind 3-run bomb off Kevin Brown.

 

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oneblankspace
9 years ago

At the time of the Strike in 1994, the LA Dodgers led the NL West with a record of 58-56 (.509). The AL West leaders, the Texas Rangers, were 52-62 (.456). Cleveland (66-47) and Atlanta (68-46) were the best 2nd-place teams at the time.

If playoffs had started right then:
NL
ATL vs MTL (74-40)
LA vs CIN (66-48, a half game ahead of HOU)

AL
CLE vs NYy (70-43)
TEX vs SOX (67-46)

Doug
Editor
9 years ago
Reply to  oneblankspace

In 1981, the Reds (then in the NL West) and Cardinals (then in the NL East) had the two best overall records, but both missed the playoffs because they didn’t win either half of the season. The next four best NL teams overall did make it, including the Dodgers (3rd behind the Cards and Reds) who went all the way.

It was even worse in the AL. The top two teams overall (As and Brewers) made it but the other two playoff teams ranked 4th (Yankees) and 10th (Royals) in the AL overall.

Adam
Adam
9 years ago
Reply to  oneblankspace

Great point One, but Atl and Montreal would not have played each in the lds as they were both in the east. Teams with the best record would not play the wildcard team from their own divisions until 2012.

Ahh, those expos, 20 years late and I still think, what if?

birtelcom
Editor
9 years ago

Hunter Pence is only the sixth hitter to homer in the top of the first in Game 1 of a World Series, following:
Mickey Mantle, 1956
Roger Maris, 1960
Frank Robinson and Brooks Robinson, both in 1966 (successive at bats off Don Drysdale)
Chase Utley, 2008

The Yankees lost both the Mantle and Maris games (ultimately winning the 1956 Series but not 1960). The O’s swept the 1966 Series. The Phillies won the Utley game and the 2008 Series.

Steven
Steven
9 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

The O’s was an appropriate term for Baltimore pitching and Dodger hitting in 1966. Scores of 5-2, 6-0, 1-0, and 1-0. Game One made a World Series hero of Moe Drabowsky, whose previous claim to fame was giving up Stan Musial’s 3000th hit.

David P
David P
9 years ago
Reply to  Steven

That ’66 Series was also notable for 20 year old rookie Jim Palmer out pitching “The Left Arm of God”, in Koufax’ final appearance.

The O’s would have likely won that game regardless but the Dodger’s defense committed 6 (!) errors, including 3 by Willie Davis in the same inning.

Doug
Editor
9 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

Salvador Perez’s home run was the first by a catcher in a home team game 1 loss. Teams getting a homer from their catcher in game 1 are 8-3 in the World Series, 7-2 when winning game 1 but only 1-1 when losing.

That one series win when losing game 1 was in 1981 when Steve Yeager launched a two out solo shot off starter Ron Guidry after the Yankees had taken an early 5-0 lead (not unlike yesterday’s game 1).

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
9 years ago

Five (5) pitchers in one inning.

Doug
Doug
9 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Was it just me, or did Infante’s home run trot (and Perez’s ahead of him) seem unusually slow, especially for a player lacking a slugger’s credentials (or physique)? I’m thinking that, among other things, was what riled Strickland.

Hopefully (for the Giants’ sake), that will be the end of their infatuation with Strickland. The kid has great stuff but, until he gets better at hitting his spots or adding some movement to his offerings, they won’t get out big league hitters consistently.

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
9 years ago
Reply to  Doug

@17/Doug;

Nah; Strickland just thought that he was acting in the capacity of “The Official Enforcer Of The Unwritten Rules Of Baseball”.

In other words, he was being an utter total jerk, and that whole confrontation that turned out to be a non-confrontation was completely unnecessary.

Artie Z.
Artie Z.
9 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Perhaps the Giants were relying on his regular season success, where his WAA was greater than his WAR. I wouldn’t think that was possible, and thought he might be fairly unique, but found that there were 30 pitchers since 1901 who had more than 3.8 WAA and more WAA than WAR. These are typically cups of coffee type seasons – Edgmer Escalona had the most IP with 25.2. Kimbrel is probably the most notable name on the list, with his 2010 season. I wouldn’t have thought it was possible to have more WAA than WAR, but apparently it’s due to… Read more »

birtelcom
Editor
9 years ago

All nine Giants in the starting lineup had exactly one hit in Game 2 tonight. The only other team to do that in a game this season was the Red Sox, on April 6 against the Brewers — the Red Sox were shut out in that game.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
9 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

All starters with exactly one hit has occurred 68 times during the regular season from 1914-2014. Tonight was the first time it happened in postseason.

birtelcom
Editor
9 years ago

I’ve found in the past that for some older games the PI can be less than reliable in identifying who is a “starter” and who is not. Maybe that’s been fixed, but I’ve been a little wary of searches involving the “starter” button for older games.

Ken
Ken
9 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

Cool factoid, thanks!

oneblankspace
9 years ago

The line for Casilla in game 2: 1-3 IP, 1 K, 1 BF, 1 pitch (1 strike)

ReliefMan
ReliefMan
9 years ago
Reply to  oneblankspace

B-R gives Casilla credit for all 6 pitches of the AB, possibly due to a limitation in how their software handles mid-batter substitutions.

Does anyone have any word from above on whether they’ll change this, so that we can accurately search for other historical instances of a pitcher recording a strikeout with fewer than 3 pitches thrown in the game?

birtelcom
Editor
9 years ago

How about this match?
Reg. Season, Hitters vs. KC in the 8th Inn.: 45 ERs (2.50 ERA), 50 R, .593 OPS
Reg. Season, Hitters vs. SF in the 8th Inn.: 45 ERs (2.50 ERA), 50 R, .593 OPS

birtelcom
Editor
9 years ago

Jeremy Guthrie starts for KC tonight.

Most Regular Season Losses By a Pitcher, 2007-2014:
T1. Jeremy Guthrie and Edwin Jackson 100
3. A.J. Burnett 92
4. Paul Maholm 89
5. Kevin Correia 88

Guthrie’s 100 regular season Losses have come in his age 28-35 seasons. The most recent pitchers to total at least 100 losses over their age 28-35 seasons:

Jeremy Guthrie (2007-2014) 100 Losses
Frank Tanana (1982-1989) 100 Losses
Nolan Ryan (1975-1982) 100 Losses
Jerry Koosman (1971-1978) 107 Losses
Ferguson Jenkins (1971-1978) 100 Losses

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
9 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

Most 28-35 losses since 1901.
WAR also indicated:

129 … 27.7 … Al Orth
125 … 38.8 … Mickey Lolich
122 … 25.8 … Jack Powell
122 … 25.5 … Bob Friend
120 … 25.2 … Robin Roberts
119 … 54.8 … Gaylord Perry
118 … 12.1 … Casey Patten
118 … 27.5 … Ken Raffensberger
116 … 15.6 … Milt Gaston
115 … 54.5 … Walter Johnson

100 … 20.2 … Jeremy Guthrie

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
9 years ago

Or, since “wins” and “losses” are incidental statistics, here are the worst WHIPs of the past 8 years. Minimum 800 Innings: 1.504 … Livan 1.487 … Zach Duke 1.478 … Pelfrey 1.473 … Millwood 1.472 … Blackburn 1.454 … Marquis 1.443 … Edwin Jackson 1.439 … Cook 1.439 … Zito ______________ Lowest WAR, 2007 – 2014 Minimum 800 innings: 1.7 … Correia 1.8 … Duke 1.9 … Livan 2.5 … Hochevar 3.0 … Zito 3.1 … Capuano 3.3 … Blackburn 3.9 … Marquis 4.5 … Blanton 4.9 … Westbrook And Correia had, by a fair margin, the Most IP of… Read more »

David P
David P
9 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Well at least Correia’s been compensated over $22 million for his troubles! 🙂

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
9 years ago
Reply to  David P

And this is his big free agent off-season. Let’s see who throws the 34 year old some big bucks! Correia had some decent seasons as relief pitcher / spot starter early in his career. So he has 3.7 WAR in just over 1400 innings. That is 380 innings for every WAR. Since 1901, only these fellas have been allowed to complete 1300+ innings with 350+ IP per Pitching WAR: 1.1 … 1740 … Mike LaCoss 2.1 … 1768 … Tony Cloninger 2.3 … 1509 … Blue Moon Odom 3.0 … 1558 … Andy Hawkins 3.0 … 1365 … Buck Ross… Read more »

oneblankspace
9 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Ryan had a save of 2 1-3 innings in Game 3 of the 1969 Series. By the time the Mets were back in the Series, he had moved on, and none of the other three teams he played for made the Series before he retired.

In the game he saved, Gary Gentry had walked the bases loaded in the 7th inning of a 4-0 game to bring the tying run to the plate in the form of Paul Blair.

no statistician but
no statistician but
9 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

With great trepidation, I’m going to have to correct the Master. That Game 8 had to have been in 1921, not ’23 when the Yankees won in six.

Maybe the high (exaggerated?) reputation Waite Hoyt had for many years dates from this Series. As I recall, Richard Nixon—so consider the source—once pronounced Hoyt to be the greatest pitcher he ever saw. How Nixon saw him from California as he was growing up is a separate question.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
9 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

It was 1921 not 1923. The Yankees won their first WS in 1923.

Luis Gomez
Luis Gomez
9 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

My thoughts exactly. Herrera must strike out the side in the bottom of the seventh to make a genius out of Yost.

bstar
9 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

John, if Dyson had gotten thrown out at second, the pitcher is going to lead off the 8th. Suppose Finnegan didn’t put out the fire in the seventh as effectively as he did and he let in the tying run. Maybe then you have to bring Wade Davis in to close out the 7th. It’s a tie game now, and you’re certainly going to bring Davis back to pitch the 8th. Problem: your relief pitcher is now leading off the 8th inning of a tie game. I think not sending Dyson had something to do with avoiding that possible scenario.… Read more »

bstar
9 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Yeah, that’s a tough one. My only guess is the pitch count, made more important considering there’s a game tonight and tomorrow.

I thought we were going to see Wade Davis go 2 last night, despite the three lefties in a row. His OPS against this year vs. LHB was .513 compared to Herrera’s .617.

bstar
9 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Make that two LHH in a row for SF, not three.

David P
David P
9 years ago

Tim Hudson now has 12 career playoff starts and only one victory. No idea how to search the PI on this but has anyone else done anything remotely similar?

bstar
9 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Attempting to save some face for one of my favorite players ever, I will note that Hudson’s 3.48 in 12 postseason starts is only 3 points off his career ERA of 3.45.

David P
David P
9 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Bstar – Some other points in Hudson’s favor.

1) He’s raked in the playoffs, putting up a .818 OPS (not counting last night)
2) Seven of his 36 runs allowed have been unearned.
3) In one of his starts, he pitched a scoreless first, then left the game (presumably with an injury).

David P
David P
9 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Thanks John! I’m honestly surprised that there are others who are similar to Hudson.

Artie Z.
Artie Z.
9 years ago
Reply to  David P

Not sure about a PI search, but Dwight Gooden always comes to mind. 12 games, 9 starts, no wins.

If only some first year closer hadn’t given up a HR to Sandy Alomar.