This Circle of Greats (COG) vote is not to induct anyone into the Circle, but only to select two players who will be restored back on to the main ballot after having been previously been dropped from eligibility. This part two of our seventh “redemption round” (we’ve been holding such redemption rounds interspersed among the regular voting rounds every tenth voting round or so) gives voters a chance to reconsider past candidates who have previously fallen off the regular induction ballots.
In this vote you may include on your three-man ballot any major league baseball player who was born between 1945 and 1908 and has neither been elected to the Circle of Greats nor is currently on the 1907 COG ballot (there was a redemption vote last week for players born between 1946 and 1969). As usual, you must vote for three and only three players to cast a qualifying ballot. The two players who appear on the most ballots will be restored to eligibility for the next regular, induction round of COG voting. If your personal favorite doesn’t come in the top two this time, do not despair — he will have other chances in future redemption rounds to be held from time to time.
There are many players who are eligible for your votes in this redemption round. As an optional aid to your selection process, I’ve put together two spreadsheets, one for pitchers and one for everyday players, that include some stats for a substantial selection of relevant players: Redemption Round 7 Part 2 Optional Hitter List and Redemption Round 7 Part 2 Optional Pitcher List. The spreadsheet with everyday players includes the 147 everyday players born between 1908 and 1945 who accumulated at least 25 Wins Above Replacement (baseball-reference version). The list is in order of career regular season plate appearances, from high to low. The pitcher list includes the 82 pitchers born between 1908 and 1945 who accumulated at least 25 pitching Wins Above Replacement. That list is ordered based on a formula of career regular season IP+(5*SV), intended to represent a quantity measure of pitching but one that does not banish relief pitchers to the bottom of the list. Again, these spreadsheets represent entirely discretionary lists — your full options are as stated: all major leaguers born between 1908 and 1945 who have not been inducted into the COG and are not on the 1907 ballot that is also the subject of a vote this week.
The deadline to cast your ballots in this redemption round is Wednesday night, January 7 at 11:59PM EST. You can change your votes until 11:59PM EST on Monday night, January 5. You can keep track of the vote tally in this redemption round here: COG Redemption Round 7 Part 2 Vote Tally.
Ashburn, Nettles, Sutton
Tempted to go all-3B (Bando, Bell, Nettles), but I’ll mix it up a bit.
I’m still voting for Jim Abbott, Curtis Pride, and Jim Eisenreich. I don’t care that they’re ineligible.
How about Pete Gray?
Well, the other three actually ARE CoG-eligible, just not from this range of years. I’ve voted for them every other redemption round (because I think the redemption rounds are silly), so there’s no reason to stop now.
birtelcom: the already elected Hank Greenberg is on the Optional Hitters List.
Also the pitcher spreadsheet is set to private.
@3:Thanks and fixed.
@4:Thanks and fixed.
Plate Appearances per Win Above Average
PaWaa:
206.5 … (6299) Larry Doby
215.3 … (8051) Reggie Smith
222.3 … (7315) Dick Allen
243.4 … (6256) Ralph Kiner
254.2 … (8287) Sal Bando
254.4 … (8090) Bobby Bonds
262.6 … (8272) Ken Boyer
266.0 … (7874) Chet Lemon
280.1 … (8011) Jim Wynn
302.2 … (7403) Jim Fregosi
305.6 … (7914) Norm Cash
311.6 … (8133) Cesar Cedeno
311.8 … (10,228) Graig Nettles
324.8 … (8639) Billy Herman
328.4 … (8802) Joe Torre
343.1 … (8508) Stan Hack
345.2 … (9736) Richie Ashburn
374.9 … (9822) Willie Davis
389.6 … (10519)Billy Williams
409.3 … (9086) Enos Slaughter
451.9 … (9625) Bert Campaneris
447.4 … (10737) Darrell Evans
550.5 … (11230) Luis Aparicio
565.6 … (10351) Nellie Fox
606.8 … (10861) Tony Perez
634.3 … (10402) Vada Pinson
1370.7 … (11240)Lou Brock
1517.4 … (11229)Rusty Staub
_____________________
Adjusting for length of career.
Through the season closest to each PA threshold.
PaWaa 7000:
211.0 … Sal Bando
213.0 … Dick Allen
216.7 … Bobby Bonds
217.4 … Riggie Smith
224.5 … Graig Nettles
226.7 … Ken Boyer
230.3 … Chet Lemon
245.7 … Jim Wynn
247.6 … Cesar Cedeno
259.0 … Richie Ashburn
260.3 … Norm Cash
261.6 … Joe Torre
279.2 … Jim Fregosi
301.8 … Vada Pinson
311.9 … Billy Herman
317.3 … Billy Williams
_____________________
PaWaa 8000:
215.3 … Reggie Smith
231.0 … Sal Bando
254.4 … Bobby Bonds
259.0 … Ken Boyer
263.4 … Graig Nettles
280.1 … Jim Wynn
291.2 … Joe Torre
296.9 … Richie Ashburn
301.3 … Cesar Cedeno
319.0 … Billy Williams
320.6 … Billy Herman
______________________
PaWaa 9000:
263.4 … Graig Nettles
300.5 … Richie Ashburn
321.4 … Billy Williams
______________________
PaWaa 10,000:
286.8 … Nettles
335.8 … Billy Williams
We’ve elected 57 position players to the COG.
By PA:
4 … 13,000+
7 … 12 – 13,000
8 … 11 – 12,000
10 .. 10 – 11,000
14 .. 9 – 10,000
6 … 8 – 9,000
5 … 7 – 8,000
2 … 6 – 7,000
1 … 5 – 6,000
Almost everybody under 9,000 PA has a good reason for the shorter-career.
Racism … Jackie Robinson
Catcher .. Bench, Berra, Piazza
Military . DiMaggio, Gordon, Mize, Greenberg, Arky, Duke
The Exceptions … Boudreau, Edgar, Grich, Larry Walker
I think Martinez has a good (non-injury) reason, too – organizational fecklessness. He’s only a half-season short of 9000 PA, & in a better organization almost certainly would’ve been brought up sooner & easily surpassed the mark.
Richie Ashburn, Ken Boyer, Lou Brock.
Reggie Smith, Nettles, Boyer
Based on Artie Z’s #24, I’m going to drop Boyer and add Drysdale.
Early Wynn and Don Sutton, because I’m a sucker for players with 300 wins.
And Ernie Lombardi because he’s always been one of my favorites.
Unconventional picks, but somebody’s gotta show them support.
Dick Allen, Hal Newhouser, Sal Bando
Tommy John, Lou Brock, Ken Boyer
Monte Irvin, Larry Doby, Richie Ashburn
Far deeper and stronger pool than round 1.
Considered Nettles & R. Smith as well>
I strongly urge everyone to take another look at Irvin, especially his Negro and Minor(!) League numbers. He’s in the Mexican Professional Baseball Hall of Fame as well. He was playing in the Negro Leagues in 1939 but didn’t play a game in the majors until more than halfway thru the 1949 season. Lost 3+ years to WW2. Put up 6.9 WAR as a 32 year old and then severely broke his ankle at the start of the following season.
Without segregation and WW2 the discussion over who the greatest left fielder in the national league was prior to BB might have been much harder to answer.
With all due respect to Irvin, it’s hard for me to believe he might’ve put together a better career than Stan Musial. Irvin posted 21.3 WAR from age 31-37 (I’m leaving aside his partial debut season at age 30). From age 31-37 Musial accumulated 44.5 WAR.
Even if we imagine Irvin didn’t break his ankle in 1952 and didn’t get sent to the minors (!) in 1955 and thus played full seasons throughout his MLB career, he still wouldn’t come close to Musial for that portion of their careers.
I’ll admit there’s a great deal of “what if” involved but you’re leaving out a number of things:
1) Irvin re-injured his ankle in a collision at home plate in August of 1953. He never fully recovered from that injury.
2) Unlike the majority of MLB players during WW2 Irvin was unable to play any kind of organized ball
3) Take another look at his numbers in the minor leagues. Those leagues were heavily populated by players who had played in the majors during the war- but I’m not sure that Mike Trout would put up more impressive numbers if he suddenly found himself playing for a community college team.
I’ve already admitted that this involves a great deal of speculation about something that we can never know for certain. And I’m also well aware that in comparing Irvin to Musial- of whom I am a huge fan- that I am setting the bar almost impossibly high.
But I also think that there’s enough evidence to show that comparison is at least within the realm of the possible and at the very least is convincing enough to show that he was one hell of a ballplayer who lost most of the opportunity to showcase those talents on a major league stage to circumstances that were largely entirely beyond his control.
“[Irvin] was one hell of a ballplayer who lost most of the opportunity to showcase those talents on a major league stage to circumstances that were largely entirely beyond his control.”
Sure, no argument there. My cavil was based in part on the fact that, as you note, the Musial bar is an absurdly high one; and in part because while I’ll give ‘extra credit’ for time lost to military service or segregation, injuries are another story.
True, injuries are (for the most part) beyond a player’s control, but if we start what-iffing about injuries there’ll be no end to it.
You’re talking about an outfielder with speed and range who didn’t get to play professional baseball in his 20s at all. His value was degraded significantly before he ever set foot on a major league field. We do have some stats from before his MLB career and they jive very well with what can only be described as the premier position player of any league he was in. I also don’t set a Stan Musial bar, I set an Eddie Murray bar. Steady Eddie was quite a producer in his age 31-37 seasons with 18.1 WAR. Speed was never a huge part of his game nor did he play center field. Murray had 102 RBAT over those seasons. Mr Murder had 98 while still being one of the premier defensive corner outfielders in baseball. Irvin was an Eddie Murray type hitting talent with defense and speed at a premium position when he was younger.
Ashburn, Boyer, Wilhelm
Jim Bunning pitched a lot of innings.
And had his beast years from ages 33 – 35.
______
Inning Pitched per Win Above Average
IpWaa:
80.0 … (2993) Hal Newhouser
83.8 … (2255) Hoyt Wilhelm
103.2 … (2684) Wilbur Wood
115.9 … (2492) Sam McDowell
120.0 … (3432) Don Drysdale
127.0 … (2147) Dean Chance
127.7 … (3307) Billy Pierce
132.9 … (3760) Jim Bunning
141.8 … (3219) Dutch Leonard
154.7 … (3263) Larry Jackson
155.4 … (3186) Milt Pappas
159.3 … (3839) Jerry Koosman
209.1 … (3638) Mickey Lolich
215.1 … (4710) Tommy John
225.7 … (5282) Don Sutton
_________________________________
Through the end of the season closest to each IP threshold.
IpWaa 2000:
66.5 … Hal Newhouser
76.9 … Wilbur Wood
80.7 … Holt Wilhelm
85.7 … Sam McDowell
92.9 … Don Drysdale
102.4 … Billy Pierce
124.3 … Jim Bunning
136.2 … Larry Jackson
176.5 … Tommy John
199.4 … Don Sutton
________________________
IpWaa 3000
80.0 … Hal Newhouser (2993)
90.5 … Jim Bunning
115.9 … Don Drysdale
119.8 … Billy Pierce
157.2 … Larry Jackson
164.8 … Tommy John
202.1 … Don Sutton
Voomo
The Phillies dumped Bunning after a phenomenal 1967 season. That may have been the Phillies only timely trade of the last 50 years 🙁
We have elected 23 pitchers to the COG.
By IP:
6 … 5000 – 5500
5 … 4500 – 5000
2 … 4000 – 4500
5 … 3500 – 4000
3 … 3000 – 3500
0 … 2500 – 3000
1 … 2000 – 2500
0 … 1500 – 2000
1 … 1000 – 1500
Ashburn
Newhouser
Lolich
Drysdale, Sutton, Medwick
Tommy John, Ken Boyer, Lou Brock
Nettles, Medwick, Allen.
Allen was the best hitter of the group by a good bit.
Reggie Smith might be the best switch hitter of the group
Bando.
Reggie Smith, Don Drysdale, Hal Newhouser
Nettles, Ashburn, and Drysdale
When I look at someone like Allen or Reggie Smith, part of what makes me back away from them is the reason I kept voting for Eddie Murray over Willie McCovey. Smith in his best 10 year WAR stretch played 1388 games and Allen 1353. In contrast, Nettles played 1557 games in his best 10 year WAR stretch (which just happened to coincide with the 1970-1979 decade) while Ashburn played 1524 games (when the schedule was 154 games a season). I’d rather have the guy who was in the lineup everyday for a decade than the guy who averaged 135 games a season, even if the WAR rate is a little lower. I’ll make some exceptions, but even someone like Jeter, who had that freak injury at the beginning of the 2003 season, still managed to play 1510 games from 1996-2005 (plus another 6 150+ game seasons outside that window) because he was durable but just had a freak injury.
As for Drysdale, if we’re going to add Wes Ferrell’s batting to his pitching, shouldn’t we do the same for Drysdale?
Drysdale’s WAR totals when adding hitting+pitching:
1956 1.9
1957 6.0
1958 3.7
1959 6.3
1960 7.1
1961 5.9
1962 5.7
1963 4.7
1964 8.4
1965 5.4
1966 3.2
1967 4.5
1968 4.6
1969 -0.3
Artie Z.:
Dick Allen has the highest OPS+ of any player born between the years 1932 and 1962. That group represents a significant amount of little boys who aspired to become major leaguers (and failed – like me) as well as all those that did eventually become major leaguers.
Reggie Smith could run, field, throw, hit for average, hit with power, and he took a walk. And, he could hit left-handed and right handed. As far as “batting both”, I could, too… in wiffle ball. Other than that, Reggie Smith couldn’t play.
Willie McCovey was the best hitter in the major leagues for the period 1968 – 1971. I don’t think we could make the same claim regarding Eddie Murray.
As for the ten-year period thing, sure, great idea. Bill James in his Win Shares tome uses best 5-consecutive seasons, best 3 seasons, and rate per 162 games. I believe if you try that methodology for Allen and McCovey for oWAR, you’ll find that they might have been better hitters than Bagwell, let alone Eddie Murray.
If a ball player stays healthy and hangs on, good for him. However, I just don’t believe you’re going to get a heck of a lot of production beyond age 34 in most non-PED athletes in this sport
I didn’t say Allen and Smith couldn’t play – just that they didn’t play enough for me. And I wasn’t talking about “hanging around” time, but in their primes. Whether the 10-year span is from ages 21-30 or 23-32 or 26-35 or 31-40 is immaterial to me.
Allen’s 10-year prime (and I use 10 years because that is the minimum amount of time for the HOF) was undeniably 1964-1973. He only had one other useful season (1974) and maybe a partially useful season (1976). In those 10 years I would guess his teams played about 1600 games (I know there were some short work stoppages). Allen played 1353 games or about 135 per year. So he missed about 25 games per year. Granted, he produced at a tremendous rate during that time (53.5 WAR).
Reggie Smith’s 10-year prime was likely 1968-1977. Same caveats about work stoppages, but Smith played 1388 games during that time, so he missed over 20-21 games per year. He produced 47.9 WAR during that time, and he had other productive years, but his 3 highest games played totals outside of that 10-year span were 158 (1967), 128 (1978), and 106 (1982).
Now consider Nettles, who’s 10-year peak was 1970-1979. He played 1557 games during that span (with the same caveats about work stoppages), so basically he was getting a day off every month. He put up 54.4 WAR during that time, and he had another 7 seasons of 100+ games after 1979 (and there was value in those seasons – he was basically a 2.5-3 WAR player from age 35-40).
As for Murray, I guess his peak was 1978-1987, though it could be 1977-1986 or 1979-1988 or 1981-1990. It really doesn’t matter, because he had 46-48 WAR during all of those spans, and he played 1490+ games during all of those spans, which seems a little low except he had a BIG work stoppage (1981). He basically played 90+% of his teams games (and usually 95%) every year from 1977-1990 except for 1986 (when he still played 137 games, which is basically the Allen/Smith average).
Even guys who aren’t getting much love had comparable peaks to Allen/Smith. Keith Hernandez’s peak was 1977-1986. He played 1514 games (despite the 1981 strike) and put up 51.8 WAR during that time. He was the best fielding first baseman of his era (possibly ever) – okay, it’s “just” first base but I don’t think there are a lot of first baseman who have Rfield+Rpos that ends up greater than zero, but Hernandez does. He also hit 3rd on two World Series winners. I voted for him because I think he’s close enough to the COG to get some redemption love and because he happens to be my favorite player, but I really don’t think he is COG worthy.
The reason I like to look at things this way is because I think superstars who miss a lot of time have inflated WAR/game rates (it’s why I never voted for Kenny Lofton). I think they are inflated because the guys who aren’t missing time (Murray, Nettles) are possibly playing through nagging injuries whereas the other players are not, or playing against pitchers who might give them trouble while the other players sit, or some other thing that might be keeping their WAR/game down. Also, I think any regular players (not just superstars) who miss time cause all kinds of secondary effects for their teams. Someone has to fill his spot, which either means moving someone from a backup role to a starting role (and might entail moving players around the diamond) or promoting a player from the minors. Seeing as how the players in the minors are essentially the definition of replacement players and should offer zero WAR (on average), I don’t see why Allen should get a much bigger benefit for his 54.5 WAR over 10 years than Nettles gets for his 54.4 WAR over 10 years because presumably the player taking Allen’s place offers no value. So while Allen’s WAR/game is much better than Nettles’, is he really more valuable than Nettles to his team? I’m using these players to illustrate my point because they work well and were mentioned – there are of course other examples out there.
As far as Allen, it was a separated shoulder in 1966 (~20 games), an “accident” that lacerated his wrist and tore his ulna nerve (~40 games/122 of 122 games played to date) in August 1967, a 30 game suspension in 1969, a torn hamstring in 1970 (played 118 of first 119 games), and a broken leg in 1973. Pretty legitimate injuries. After, basically, ripping him, Bill James in his BJHBA states something to the effect that “he did have three or four seasons when he was as good a player as anyone in baseball”. I just don’t think that may be true of anyone else in this “redemption” round with the possible exception of Newhouser?
Keith Hernandez. Nice ball player – possibly the greatest fielding 1B I ever saw who could also hit. But, quite honestly, I would have been more impressed if he was the greatest hitting 1B I ever saw.
Nettles? Come on – you have to hit better than .250 Is he any better a hitter than Darrell Evans?
Honestly, I believe a helluva lot more in oWAR, wOBA, and wRC than any of the advanced fielding metrics. That’s my bias. And, I’ll take that statue Derek Jeter; everyone else can have Ozzie Smith.
BTW, take a look at Joe Morgan’s peak seasons with the Reds. Supposedly, he actually took days off to just plain rest. But, then again, he was stealing 50 – 60 bases per season, unlike any of those mentioned above. However, do you think Sparky Anderson was going to bitch about having to play Darrell Chaney for 20 games? As far as the replacement filling in for 20-25 games, is that what it takes for Nettles to have greater value than Smith or Allen. If Player A produces 5 WAR in 135 games and player B produces 5 WAR in 160 games, I’m sorry, but I believe Player A to be the superior of Player B
These Redemption Rounds are nearly impossible. Too many choices!!
I’ll go with the following:
1. Sal Bando – the only guy to lead the Majors in WAR over a 5-year rolling period to not be in the HOF or on the ballot currently. He deserves a second look, if just for that phenomenal peak.
2. Jim Bunning – I’m not sure WHY we dismissed him so quickly. As far as I can tell, he should have absolutely been in the discussion for induction.
3. Don Drysdale – As Artie Z. notes above, if we’re going to consider Wes Ferrell largely on the basis of his combined pitch+bat, we must do the same for Drysdale. Drysdale’s combined pitch+bat is about 6 WAR higher than Ferrell, albeit with a much worse peak, but with a lot more consistency (only one bad year, versus half a career which produced no value for Ferrell). I think that, if we’re really going to seriously consider pitchers based on their abilities with the bat in combination to their pitching (a very fair idea), then it makes total and complete sense to give Drysdale a second chance.
To recap:
Sal Bando
Jim Bunning
Don Drysdale
Dr D:
Bunning had the misfortune (from a CoG perspective) to be born in 1931, the same year as Mays, Mantle, Mathews, and Banks, not to mention Ken Boyer. The holdover list going into 1931 consisted of 11 players, *all* of whom eventually made it in:
Biggio, Grich, Koufax, Lofton, Marichal, Martinez, McCovey, Sandberg, Santo, Smoltz, Whitaker
So in the 1931/part 1 ballot, Bunning was up against those holdovers, as well as Mantle and Mathews. Bunning received 8 votes that round and continued on.
In 1931/part 2, Bunning was up against the same 11 holdovers plus Eddie Mathews, as well as Mays, Banks, and Boyer. Bunning received 6 votes and fell off the ballot by 1.
In short, bad timing. Kind of the opposite of Minoso, who came on the ballot when the holdover list was less formidable, and managed to squeak over the 25% line by one vote, which has helped him hang around.
Here’s the vote according to my methodology – I compare players on 4 slightly different metrics, then aggregate the rankings of the players on the ballot. So if a player ranks first on all 4 metrics, they get a 4, if they rank 10th on all 4, they get a 40, etc. The four metrics are:
WAR – measurement of value above replacement players; has seemed to be the most widely discussed ‘advanced’ omnibus measurement of player value.
WAA+ – measurement of value above average players; my thought is that it measures how ‘really good’ a player was (excluding negative seasons also suits this purpose), and so a player who hung on slightly above replacement for many years might score highly in WAR but less highly in WAA+.
JAWS – measurement of combined peak and career value; my thought is that this is a different way of capturing some ‘middle ground’ between the above 2 metrics.
WAR*WAR/162G (or /250IP for pitchers) – credit to Jon Autin for coming up with this idea as a way to measure a player’s productivity per amount of time that they actually played, rather than over a season or career; my thought is that this is a way of measuring value for players who may not have had shorter careers or did not always play full seasons, etc.
Anyway, I ranked all the guys who had over 50 WAR (or any who didn’t but appeared on multiple CoG ballots), and here are the rankings of the top 20 guys:
1. Hal Newhouser 11
2. Graig Nettles 16
3. Reggie Smith 17
4. Don Drysdale 24
5. Ken Boyer 25
6. Richie Ashburn 28
7. Sal Bando 29
8. Dick Allen 32
9. Billy Williams 35
10. Jim Bunning 38
11. Jim Wynn 49
12. Don Sutton 59
13. Willie Davis 64
13. Joe Medwich 64
15. Tommy John 67
16. Willie Stargell 74
17. Joe Torre 75
18. Early Wynn 77
19. Wilbur Wood 86
19. Billy Herman 86
There are a lot of good candidates here that I’d like to see back on the main ballot, and that doesn’t even get into special cases like Doby (#21 on my list) and Wilhelm (down at #28). I almost got convinced last CoG round to vote Wilhelm, if for nothing else to give him another look on the main ballot. I’ve also come around on Newhouser (although I was one of the 6 people to vote for him on his first ballot anyway), especially since discovering that WAR etc. already adjusts for the lower quality of players during WWII (I had previously thought it had not, but it in fact set the replacement level lower). So I feel I can take those stats more at face value. I voted for Reggie Smith last time on a bigger ballot, so I don’t see why I wouldn’t this time, but Nettles also has a great case. Anyone in the top 8, really, I’d be happy to see back on.
Okay, I’ll go with these 3 for now, but will keep paying attention to see if a vote change is appropriate to give up a lost cause and support someone who has a chance…
Newhouser
Reggie Smith
Wilhelm
Nettles, Wirber, W. Jones
Who is W. Jones?
I assume it’s Willie “Puddin’ Head” Jones.
Most Regular Season Games at Third Base for a Pennant-Winning Phillies Team:
1. Willie Jones (1950) 157
2. Pedro Feliz (2009) 153
3. Mike Schmidt (1983) 149
4. Mike Schmidt (1980) 143
5. Dave Hollins (1993) 129
I can’t believe that Nettles is getting screwed again.
Ashburn, Allen, T. John
Best years of Pitching WAR.
Bunning . Newhouser . Drysdale
8.9 … 11.2 … 8.0
8.1 … 9.5 … 6.9
7.8 … 8.0 … 6.1
6.7 … 6.3 … 5.8
6.3 … 5.9 … 5.4
5.4 … 5.4 … 5.3
4.7 … 4.1 … 4.6
3.8 … 2.4 … 4.4
3.7 … 1.7 … 4.3
3.1 … 1.6 … 3.2
3.1 … 1.3 … 2.9
1.5 … 1.2 … 2.8
0.9 … 1.1 … 1.8
0.8 … 1.1 …
…
Newhouser, Nettles, Wilhelm
Newhouser’s WAR does indeed adjust for lower quality of WWII opposition, Nettles was among the elite 3B (overshadowed by Schmidt/Brett/B. Robinson) and Wilhelm as the greatest early reliever deserves another look.
I’ve been really looking forward to this redemption ballot, if for no other reason than to get Richie Ashburn back into the mix. I still have a hard time understanding how he dropped off. I have him as basically equal, though slightly superior to Kenny Lofton, and he’s already in the CoG. I can’t think of any argument for electing Lofton and not electing Ashburn.
It’s also a pleasure to once again vote for Sal Maglie, whose sui generis career and late excellence deserve a lot more recognition.
Last slot is a tough one. I considered all of the following:
Billy Williams
Graig Nettles
Enos Slaughter
Willie Stargell
Joe Torre
Sal Bando
Ken Boyer
Dick Allen
Ralph Kiner
Ernie Lombardi
Joe Medwick
Jim Bunning
Early Wynn (Don’t forget his hitting either!)
Don Drysdale
For the moment I think I’m going with Drysdale, though I’m open to changing this vote if it makes sense to do so.
Campaigning for Nettles:
Highest WAR of all the batters in this redemption round. 390 career HRs.
During the 70’s, he was fourth in WAR for the decade, second in dWAR, and sixth in HR.
He was the only player in the 70’s to have both >30 oWAR and >20 dWar.
In the history of the game, only three 3B players have over 50 oWAR and 20 dWAR. Nettles is one of them.
All good points in his favor.
I think he has gotten less consideration for some odd reasons:
1. Career BA of .248 (misleading stat – over 50 oWAR more meaningful)
2. Only 2 Gold Gloves (after B. Robinson finally slowed down)
3. He played at the same time some even better 3B guys played.
Don’t think Nettles should be blamed for the fact 3B talent finally matured in the 70’s, fits in the best 10-12 all-time at an under-represented position. Provides a bit more WAR than Boyer, who played in a less crowded decade. I think his big postseason moments and power help to separate him a bit from Buddy Bell/Sal Bando also.
Definitely overlooked – go Nettles!
Nettles also led the AL in WAR twice, in 1971 and in 1976. Very few players can make that claim and even fewer 3rd baseman (are there any other 3rd baseman who have done that?).
The following 3B have led their league in WAR.
Mike Schmidt 4 times
Wade Boggs 3
Brooks Robinson 2
Graig Nettles 2
A-Rod 2
Al Rosen 1
Ron Santo 1
George Brett 1
And (surprise)
Mel Ott 1
Rogers Hornsby 1
@44,
As Bill James once said, Brooks already occupied the slot of “3B defensive whiz” in the MLB pantheon by the early/mid 70s, so Nettles defensive prowess was relatively under-appreciated. Plus, as you eluded to above, by the time Nettles was on the HOF ballot, Schmidt, Brett and Boggs were either recently retired or late in their careers, and Nettles was going to be compared unfavorably to them.
I think that he is considerably better than HOFers Lindstrom and Kell, and better than Traynor, but not convinced that he belongs in the HOF.
Are you a very small hall guy or did you mean to write COG and not HOF in that last sentence?
I agree that the .248 BA puts a lot of people off.
And, as great as he was–he wasn’t the best 3B of his era or even the 2nd best.
But I remember how amazed people were at his world series play.
3B does not have a very even spread of talent across eras – there were not too many high level players at the hot corner prior to Eddie Mathews in 1952! Most of the best in the HOF performed in the 70’s and 80’s (before Chipper, Beltre, and A-Rod came along).
I would say Nettles is in a similar spot to center fielder Ashburn – no one would call Ashburn better than Mays/Mantle/Snider, just as Nettles is not the equal of B. Robinson/Schmidt/Brett/Boggs. Yet Ashburn is in the HOF and has some solid support on this ballot.
Nettles played during the golden era of his position and put up some big stats noted above – he was not the best 3B of his era, but he was no slouch either. Just because other great players at his position were active when he was, does not mean his abilities should be so quickly dismissed. Worth discussing anyway.
Gil Hodges, Ralph Kiner, Curt Flood
Richie Ashburn – Ken Boyer – Don Drysdale
Newhouser, Bunning, and Colavito
Newhouser, Drysdale, Lombardi
Ashburn, Nettles & Doby
For Redemption Round 7 Part 2, I’m voting for:
-Don Sutton
-Sal Bando
-Graig Nettles
Stargell, Hodges, Kaat
Jim Bunning, Lou Brock, and Joe Torre
Dick Allen, Monte Irvin, Early Wynn
Dick Allen
Graig Nettles
Ralph Kiner
VOTE CHANGE
Allen
Nettles
Wilhelm (thanks to Voomo @74, I overlooked Ol’ Sarge…)
Here’s a brief update (through brp @56), only for candidates with 3 or more votes:
10 – Ashburn
9 – Nettles
7 – Don Drysdale, Hal Newhouser
6 – Dick Allen, Ken Boyer
4 – Sal Bando, Lou Brock, Reggie Smith, Don Sutton
3 – Jim Bunning, Tommy John, Hoyt Wilhelm
Biggest surprise for me? That Joe Medwick is getting less love on the redemption ballot than he used to get on the actual COG ballot!
I think it’s (in part at least) because he just fell off last round. My hunch is that one is -irrationally perhaps- less motivated to vote for someone who just fell of since it seems all the more hopeless that the player will make any headway in the general CoG voting. All the more so with Medwick who fell of in awful fashion (garnering only one vote in his last round). I believe in Medwick, but I guess some voting fatigue has set in!
The truth is, though, that except for Ashburn, I don’t think any of the players (even on this exceptionally strong redemption ballot) has any chance of getting elected into the CoG.
– Ken Boyer
– Hal Newhouser
– Willie Stargell
Dick Allen, Lou Brock, Joe Torre.
Ashburn
Drysdale
Jim Kaaat, er, Kaat
D Allen, Stargell, Nettles
Bunning, Kiner, Stargell
Ashburn. Drysdale, Kiner
Boyer, Nettles, Drysdale
I see Graig Nettles as the best long-career position player on the ballot, with no mid-range career candidates standing out.
_____
With regards to pitchers, if you like staring at baseball statistics, Hoyt Wilhelm is an endless source of joy. And I’m sad to see him withering away in 14th place before my vote.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wilheho01.shtml
_____
My third vote goes to either Newhouser or Bunning.
Bunning had length to his career, but that last 700 innings wasn’t very good.
Newhouser at 2993 innings – we’ve only elected Koufax and Mariano with less.
But he didn’t really have a decline phase.
Here’s how Jim Bunning and Prince Hal compare through 3000 IP (3059 – 2993):
WAR / WAA:
59.7 / 33.8
60.4 / 37.4
______
Decisions/ ERA / ERA+ / WHIP
192-133 / 3.07 / 124+ / 1.142
207-150 / 3.06 / 130+ / 1.311
_____
Newhouser got one year of seasoning on the farm, and was a regular at age 19.
Bunning, seven full years to develop his craft without his stats “counting”.
…
I can’t unravel it.
I’ll just vote for Sal Bando.
______________________________
Vote:
Sal Bando
Graig Nettles
Hoyt Wilhelm
Voomo Z:
Regarding Bunning and Newhouser, perhaps a comparison of their “peaks” might work? Their best 6 years indicates:
Won-Loss IP FIP ShO ERA+ WHIP WAR WAA
136-67 1767 2.75 28 152 1.212 46.4 33.2
105-69 1698 2.93 27 127 1.112 36.4 21.3
That’s Newhouser on top, Bunning below. I imagine in the AL, no one except for Feller was better than Newhouser. However, I have to believe Koufax, Gibson, Marichal, and Drysdale were as good or better than Bunning during the period 1962-1967.
By the same token, this period represents a majority of Newhouser’s “A” level production, while Bunning had a nice stretch from 1957-1961.
But of course, any “straight-up” comparison to Newhouser deals with the fact that he was playing during WWII. And “average” during WWII was pretty bad… so that 33.2 WAA doesn’t look so sharp when you remember that 21.9 of it was accumulated drom 1944-1946. (Whether 1946 stats should be treated as equal to 1947 or 1945, or somewhere in between, that’s up to you.) Plus, as you point out, what if we go with a 10-year peak? (Again, Newhouser on top:)
W-L…..IP…..FIP…..ShO…..ERA+…..WHIP…..WAR…..WAA
176-122 2533.2 3.05 32 138 1.296 55.7 36.6
164-119 2687.1 3.11 38 125 1.129 53.6 30.7
For Newhouser, that’s 1941-1950. For Bunning, that’s 1958-1967, meaning it ignores his 20-8, 6.3 WAR season in 1957. If you extend to 11 years, Bunning bests Newhouser in virtually every category. Newhouser clearly had the better peak; Bunning the better career. How voters want to weigh that (if those two are even near their ballots) is up to them. But I can see the argument in either direction.
With WWII considerations in place, where does Newhouser’s 1945 rank all-time, using WAR?
This is from 1901-
Newhouser’s 11.2 WAR season is tied for 15th.
Add his 0.8 WAR on offense and you get get 12.0.
This is tied for 11th.
Here’s the top pitching seasons since 1901, including offense:
16.0 … Walter Johnson (1913)
14.6 … Walter Johnson (1912)
13.2 … Dwight Gooden (1985)
13.0 … Walter Johnson (1914)
12.8 … Pete Alexander (1920)
12.6 … Cy Young (1901)
12.5 … Steve Carlton (1972)
12.1 … Ed Walsh (1912)
12.1 … Walter Johnson (1915)
12.1 … Roger Clemens (1997)
12.0 … Hal Newhouser (1945)
12.0 … Fergie Jenkins (1971)
11.8 … Bob Gibson (1968)
11.7 … Joe Wood (1912)
11.6 … Russ Ford (1910) rookie
11.5 … Eddie Cicotte (1917)
11.4 … Ed Walsh (1910)
11.4 … Walter Johnson (1911)
11.3 … Joe McGinnity (1903)
11.3 … Bob Gibson (1969)
11.2 … Christy Mathewson (1908)
11.2 … Gaylord Perry (1972)
11.0 … Jack Chesbro (1904)
11.0 … Tom Seaver (1973)
Drysdale, Nettles, Irvin
An all ‘keep them on the ballot’ vote:
– Dwight Evans
– Luis Tiant
– Minnie Minoso
Lawrence – I think you meant to put this on the 1907 Part 2 thread.
@79,
OOPS!! Thanks for pointing that out, I submitted it again, under the proper article.
Not really a high voter turnout this round so far, but it seems like a 3-horse race for the 2 spots. I’m stubbornly sticking to Newhouser who toils in 4th place, as he’s the best on the ballot, but I’m going to give up my hope of some Reggie Smith momentum.
Change from Smith, Newhouser, Wilhelm
to
Nettles, Newhouser, Wilhelm
Yes it’s close at the top. Many of the redemption rounds have shaken out fairly quickly, but this one is a horse race to the end. Tomorrow is the last day of voting!
Joe Torre, Hoyt Wilhelm, Sal Bando.
Got the right thread this time I think.
Nettles, Ashburn, Dick Allen
Ashburn, Allen, Reggie Smith
Allen, Drysdale, Torre
Nettles, Allen, Drysdale
Looks like Ashburn and Drysdale are tied for 2nd spot unless someone else votes quick!
I count the final result as Richie A. ahead of Don D. (no not Don Draper from Mad Men) by a single vote. So Ashburn and Nettles return to the main ballot.
And yet the spreadsheet shows Ashburn and Drysdale with 14 votes apiece?
Counting comments gives 14 each also: @36 and @65 easy to miss, but spreadsheet matches. Is there a tiebreaker rule being used or something we missed?
You guys are right, the spreadsheet does show a tie — my connection to the spreadsheet earlier must have been slow to update the totals for some reason. In this circumstance, I think it makes sense to add both Ashburn and Drysdale, along with Nettles, to the next main ballot. We’ll leave it to the main ballot voters to decide whether one, both or neither deserves to stay.
wow, the main ballot is about to get unsustainably crazy. Exciting.
Bells – Just wait till 1903 and the “Ballot of Death.” Newcomers include Gehrig, Gehringer, Paul Waner, Cochrane and Hubbell. Plus Lazzeri, Travis Jackson and Chick Hafey (HOFers with under 50 WAR).
Between now and then we’ll add Thome, Cronin, the Nettles/Drysdale/Ashburn trio, and possibly Jim Edmonds to the list. And five people will get elected.
Will be interesting to see who emerges from the “Wreckage of ’03’.